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A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com
A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com
There comes a moment with all governments in power for a long time when, desperate to conjure up some of the old magic, they reprise old popular tunes in the hope – or belief – that they will have the same effect as first time around.
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If only youth weren't so wasted on the young.
An outright owner-occupier can still live very comfortably in this country off a modest income; mortgage or rent payers, not so much.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/VI-2022-06-22-Observer-Tables.xlsx
Good luck to them across the remaining days of the conference
Laura don't preach, I've been losing sleep
But I made up my mind, I'm keeping my Chancellor
I'm gonna keep my Chancellor, hm
He says that he's going to rescue me
And we can raise up our economy
Maybe we'll be all right
If we fix the price?
But my friends keep telling me he's cocked it up
Saying it's all wrong, I ought to lock him up
What I need right now is some good advice, please
Catfight!
Kwasi tomorrow and the Prime Minister on Wednesday need to nail down how their hope for growth becomes a plan for growth, or it is all over. Tomorrow afternoon is billed as "Delivering a Growing Economy". They need something.
https://www.conservatives.com/conference/agenda
I must say Penny looked great today and her hair should have its own government job !
Even though I’d never vote Tory she does come across well and of course has the best hair in parliament .
That's about it, yes. You can see this very clearly when the cheerleaders insist that pushing on regardless of criticisms is the right thing, without assessing those criticisms. Or indeed, pretending those criticising are the usual opposition figures only.
Truss is not Thatcher.
The method of presenting the plans, to avoid scrutiny and to simply assert things as true with no effort to persuade anyone, has been the most damning part of it all. The MPs at least deserved that even if she doesn't think we did.
The levelling up secretary I imagine will target local councils, since that is what happened last austerity (with far greater cause) was gone for.
On the question of if the government understood the market impact, of course it didn't. The second most damning part of this was the realisation that the government had done no preparation for a reaction to its plans that wasn't a gushing tribute from the taxpayers alliance.
However, I remain unpersuaded on the poitns about mandate. I think she has not done the work to persuade the MPs or the public it is a good idea, but I still have no problem, in theory, about making the attempt, had it been done competently.
On the point about spending cuts, anything said in the leadership contest was clearly just a fantasy. Low tax, high spend, no more housing targets but lots of housing growth, etc, it as a promise the earth contest.
Furthermore this morning she announced Labour's support for the government's 2 year energy cap but could only quote on going enhanced windfall taxes as paying the costs of over 100 billion
In any case, there is nothing rightwing about putting money back into the pockets of working people.
I’m glad Sir Keir Royale backed 19p.
Labour too spent 12 years in opposition and counting after removing Blair as PM and Blairites are only now returning to the party under Starmer after the wilderness years
It is the Tories who are now putting ideology first, Truss their most hard right leader, especially on economics, since IDS and their first truly libertarian leader
On a less positive side, I would like Cyclefree to stretch herself next time, and not do a 'things are terrible and awful and shit, and everyone is stupid, and here's 7 bullet points about why and how.' thread header. A lot of people seem to use PB as therapy to cleanse them of their rage and negativity, but usually it's below the line. Maybe actually propose something positive that might make things better in a small way?
Regarding economical growth, the header is wrong - going for growth was exactly what Sunak wasn't going to do; in common with the general Davos consensus, his prospectus was a swerve into austerity that held every prospect of not only bringing a recession, but a depression. We're lucky we've dodged that bullet. Growth itself is a rebellious choice these days, and God speed Truss for making it her choice.
The top rate of tax thing in particular defied good political sense right now, absolutely fucking stupid, yet they did it.
Off topic, lot of rumours about Credit Suisse's viability doing the rounds. Some suggest Deutsche having trouble down the mill as well but Credit Suisse has been really dogged by bad hits & mismanagement e.g. Greensill, Archegos. Rumours of course, but a big investment bank going pop is going to have ripples.
1978: Winter of Discontent
Documentary | 1hour 30minutes
The story of seven bleak months of industrial chaos that changed Britain forever.
https://www.channel5.com/tvguide/channel-5
With respect, it is wishful thinking on your part to assume Labour would be just as bad as the current shambles.
Obviously no pressure on RCS, but Kwarteng at least managed to cobble something together, but the proof of any energy package will be in the heating, and what we know about reaction to the household package, it was hated by those charities who know the struggling well, it just won’t help those in need enough and the current have a hell of a whack coming their way of this, whilst serious economists wince at how much money it wastes from the moment Labour first publicised the rotten idea.
No. The same household bill freeze package doesn’t have to be means tested, the truth here it just doesn’t have to be that way of doing it at all!
Think outside your box with the metres in it, by turning the single point Energy Price Cap into a variable price cap where the price per unit of energy used rises with usage. A sliding price cap means marginal user costs increase. RCS is right, it’s the people at the lower end who really need the assistance here, If a solution doesn’t have those most in need front and centre, then it’s not the right solution is it? We should be reducing energy bills for lower-income households in the country while higher earners, who consume more energy, bear a more commensurate share of the higher cost. More help to the the most in need, and a much cheaper solution overall.
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf
"I have no idea where this narrative has emerged from that the government is abandoning Levelling Up" says @DehennaDavison. she does not believe govt is backing away. She agrees with the "Social Capitalism" report. Talks about the Community Ownership Fund as an exemplar.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1576631910033330176?cxt=HHwWgMCosc2XqeErAAAA
We're raising the definition of a small business from 250 to 500 employees. This will cut costs for nearly 40,000 businesses, helping to deliver more jobs, higher wages and to grow our economy.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1576635078096322560
Now, she may or may not be right about it generating sufficient growth (I'd argue her lack of preparation and total surprise at what has transpired since the announcement would suggest her plans are likely not going to delivery what she thought), and people will disagree about whether it unfairly hits the poor (but it really does), but I think even if it does work, she will be surprised that people will not suddenly decide they like it. If it was as unpopular as this, it will remain unpopular even if there is some movement.
I cannot stress enough how UNPOPULAR slashing taxes and cutting spending on public services is. It is an utterly toxic combination. Here is the latest British Social Attitudes survey. It's a 6% position ...
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1576480862857592833?cxt=HHwWgoCgncC_5OArAAAA
Managed to top up my lay at 2/1, in the last few minutes. Currently 7/4.
Worth noting voting Brazil is electronic (potential for realtime results to leak) - the actual result will come very soon after polls close. Very risky, betting now.
I’m now leaving the market alone.
If I have regrets, I think it will be that I didn’t stake the mortgage on Lula at these prices.
Oh well.
Over the month of September 🇺🇦 has liberated approximately 10,608km² of Ukraine.
This means that 🇷🇺 currently occupies ~17.72% of Ukraine. ~1.76% less of the total area of the country than at the end of August.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1576366096571314176?cxt=HHwWgMDR4ZynsOArAAAA
Not for me.
The windfall tax has already raised 8 billion this year and their enhanced one is estimated to add another 2 billion so a large amount of borrowing is needed
The only other tax that may raise billions is a wealth tax but nobody has put forward a proposal on it so far
If something changes beyond all recognition but support remains unaffected, then the support was for the brand alone.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/17487-switch-to-variable-energy-price-cap-could-solve-the-cost-of-living-crisis-and-save-the-treasury-billions-says-niesr
1. A proper public information campaign about reducing usage
2. Cutting VAT on electricity and gas; at the moment, the higher prices are, the more the government takes
3. Suspending the green levy (money down the drain)
4. Focussing financial help on those in greatest need or most vulnerable, including those who through poverty are on 'pay as you go', which has a higher tariff.
5. Freezing the standing charges...there is no reason for them to be raised
Meanwhile, Scottish Power want to put up my direct debit, even though I am over £1900 in credit, equivalent to eight months elec and gas in my household
That was the only way she was going to get a hearing from the GBP.
Instead she has shown she is not able to get things done (any idea this mini budget is getting through the Commons in current form is for the birds), she doesn’t have a clear grasp on how government works and she’s spent her time in office poking holes in the ship.
It’s hard to see how anyone could have done worse to be frank.
But to have paid of a mortgage on a forever home, you either need to be in at least your fifties and bought before the Blair house price boom or have had a hefty windfall.
And there are the two nations separated by age again.
This stuff matters, because the UK isn't as prosperous as we'd like, and we can't pay for the things we'd like without tax rates we don't.
And it's tempting to blame Brussels, Immigrants, Greens or Davos for that, but I suspect the issue is decisions we have collectively taken, maybe without realising. I'm pretty sure that pumping so much money into hose prices is one of those.
Some proposals from May 2020 on how to pay for the spending we had of necessity incurred by then.
I wonder what your responses were then to those proposals and what constructive proposals you made then or since.
In fact since you seem to think that Truss's proposals are great please explain how they will work.
I am quite worried because I think the position for pension funds, their companies and banks is probably more serious and likely to last longer than a few days. Understandably the authorities are not letting on. This is based on my experience - pretty close tho the heart of the action - back in 2008. And I have little confidence in the government having a clue as to what to do or even appreciating that there is a problem.
I have something to say. It comes from a particular perspective, which may be of interest to some. It is certainly not a complete or the only perspective on what is happening. It is I would venture to suggest a touch more valuable than your Panglossian approach.
I do find the spectacle of politics at the moment immensely funny - in a black humour sort of way. That is until I remember that it is damaging the prospects and hopes of my children. And that makes me angry. It is not therapy I want. But revenge on those who are damaging their future.
Hand delivered to him by Sir Patrick McLoughlin.
Never even had the courtesy of a response.
So I will wait until the **** has been moved on.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/02/liz-truss-and-kwasi-kwartengs-foolish-dash-for-growth-is-a-non-starter
There's more to come me thinks on this crisis. BoE has only agreed QE for two weeks to try and stabilise pensions. Then what?
When the election comes they can have an update/review and junk everything and have a fresh set of policies in the manifesto. The Tories will be so jaded from infighting and fending off inquiries and incensed members of the public that no one will ever listen to their attack lines by then. Their goose will be cooked and SKS will be reading the furnishing brochure for No.10
You have to look at revenue as well as spending.
My guess is we see reversal of some of these rises before year end.
You need to get it in front of Truss. She needs good news stories and something to burnish her eco-credentials as she moves forward with oil and gas.