This is a deeply malevolent regime probably in its death throes. Listen to the lack of enthusiasm
Young Russians LIKE the West. They like the consumer goods, the internet, the media, the holidays in Spain, Italy, Turkey, the Maldives, and the elite like the flats in London, the villas in Provence, the jobs in California
I have never met a Russian, rich or poor, who has ever expressed a desire for "Holy War" against the West. It is insane. Most of them personally *feel* Western , as compared to being Muslim or Chinese
OTOH there's precious little evidence of Russian opposition to the programme of imperial conquest and brutalisation in Ukraine. It's not just that most of the protest inside the country looks suspiciously like moaning about forced conscriptions rather than the actual morality of the exercise; it's that there is precious little dissent being voiced outside of the country, amongst people who are both entirely free to speak and too unimportant to be pursued by FSB hit squads with glow in the dark teabags. A couple of out-of-favour oligarchs and Pussy Riot does not a mass movement make.
The Russian population, collectively, is either indifferent to the suffering its Government inflicts upon its neighbours or actively approves. The main objections to Putin's campaigns aren't the result of their perceived immorality, but of their incompetent execution and its consequences.
My sense is that the pro western Russians are essentially in an impossible position. There is nothing they can do because a majority of Russians support Putin. They've already tried protesting against the regime and the regime outwitted them. All they can do is make some kind of accommodation with the regime. But now things have taken a turn for the worse and they are basically being rounded up and sent off to Ukraine to be cannon fodder in the most brutal, deranged sense. So you can see why a lot of them are fleeing. I am personally very sympathetic, I think they should be accepted as refugees.
The Poles, Balts and Finns all seem to have drawn the conclusion that most of the Russians running away are draft dodging to save their necks, rather than seeking political asylum. I sympathise with their arguments.
There's no advantage to Europe in taking in destabilising quantities of young Russian men who are completely OK with Putin's savagery, but just don't want to be exposed to any physical risks themselves. Let them be packed off to Ukraine and take their chances - they've always got the option of surrendering to Ukrainian captivity if they don't want to fight.
But the Ukranian men who fled the country at the start of the war were also 'draft dodging'. We aren't forcing them to go back to Ukraine to go and join the army, even though the Ukranian government has ordered them to return. And they are the people who we need to actually win the war. If everyone left Ukraine, then no progress would ever be made with the war.
Given that we welcomed in these 'deserters', I think we should be a lot more sympathetic to the Russian draft dodgers. It isn't that easy to just be conscripted in the Russian Army and then surrender to Ukraine, a lot of these people are going to end up getting killed.
While I’d tend to agree with you, I’d also note that the Poles and Balts have taken massively more Ukrainian refugees than have we. They are also much closer to the front line of Putin’s aggression, so have far more security concerns about taking large numbers of Russians. And there is also an undeniable difference between those who chose to flee before the conscription, and those doing so now.
I think we should be prepared to take some. I also fully understand why the Balts and others would refuse.
With Bolsonaro coming back into play, maybe UK Tories were too quick to write Boris Johnson off?
Maybe Brazilian election shows us too quick to write Truss off as well - this aspirational, not giving in to the long term decline caused by too much handouts, pride in your country and flag messaging seems successful the world over at the moment.
Bolsonaro is wildly popular with a large number of Brazilians, even if he’s unpopular with a greater number. He’ was also running against a man who did jail time for corruption.
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
Or indeed those who might have questioned Chamberlain emptying Britain’s coffers to get the Nazis out of Poland.
Our support for Ukraine is a piffling rounding error compared with that.
Or those who questioned us getting into a national virility competition with the Kaiser - a war which finished us as the pre-eminent world power, and lead to the Nazis in the first place.
If we had stayed out if the WWI and the Germans had won, then WWII would have happened.
We know this, because of the explicit statements of German strategists in 1914 that they needed to grab chunks of France and Belgium, so as to be in a good position when they started the next war.
Imagine Greater Germany in 1930 odd, with the War Is Good, War is God religion still in full swing. Then the scientists at the Kasier Wilhelm Institute for Physics report really, really good news…..
He wanted to re-invade America. Can't say I really care.
The Germans were pretty clear that we were in the way.
One hysterically funny article, written by a German Admiral of the period, complained that the British accused the Germans of ill intent. In the next paragraph it complained at the unfair scheme of Distant Blockade, which rendered all the German destroyers and cruisers obsolete. Since they had been designed to attack British ships much closer to Germany…
Luckyguy sometimes seems a bit like a right wing Corbyn. His dislike of the US apparently skews his judgment so much that its adversaries’ motivations and intentions escape rational scrutiny. His reaction to the MH17 affair is another example.
Sensible - letting the issue fester for six months would have been idiotic. And reassuring to have early confirmation that even Truss can be turned if her mistake is big enough.
More on the bacterium and Type 1 diabetes. This is fascinating.
A common gut bacterium makes a protein resembling insulin closely enough to trigger Type 1 diabetes https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/1/2126323/-A-common-gut-bacterium-makes-a-protein-resembling-insulin-closely-enough-to-trigger-Type-1-diabetes … In 2018, a study published in Nature took a look at gut bacteria that were most commonly overrepresented in children that had developed Type 1 diabetes compared to normal gut bacteria profiles. The bacterial genus that led all others in that respect (P < 0.001, or 99.9% likelihood of a real effect) is called Parabacteroides. Not clear why that would be, exactly, but keep that name in mind.
In this study, Altindis and colleagues set out to find any proteins among all the known viruses, fungi, and bacteria that might look enough like insulin to trigger an immune response. (We have so much genomic information these days that doing this is not hard at all anymore.) This was a total fishing expedition; they weren’t biased for or against anything in particular. Of all the zillions of known protein sequences out there, they found just 47 candidates with stretches that resembled insB:9-23 closely. Then they narrowed that list down to 17 especially good ones, all from different species, where a lot of the amino acids matched the most important ones known to attract antibodies to insB:9-23.
So they manufactured these 17 peptides (protein snippets of length 15, the same length as insB:9-23) and exposed each of them to human T cells that were already directed against insB:9-23. They also included insB:9-23 itself as a positive control and a random peptide as a negative control. Of course the insB:9-23 peptide evoked a response from the T cells. But only one other peptide out of the other 18 did: the one from a well-known gut bacterium called ... Parabacteroides distasonis 33D.
Parabacteroides, the very same type of bacteria with the strongest correlation to Type 1 diabetes development in children.…
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
We have a Bramley with more apples than we can deal with and did the same. Last year we had too many plums. It might be an urban street but why not? Waste is bad. Surprisingly, none of it got thrown about by schoolkids.
The spare eating apples are going to the scratter, though.
You could make plum and apple jam for your local Great War reenactment group.
Every time Truss speaks she loses another 1% on the poll i reckon.
Utter disaster.
She is dreadful. "My plan is brilliant but we didn't explain it well enough for all the thickies to understand that".
They did not explain it at all. That's the problem with their Plan for Growth. We have to take LizT's and Kwasi's word for it that the plan even exists.
Liz Truss would lose a Commons vote on cutting the top rate of income tax, former cabinet minister Grant Shapps has told the BBC.
Scrapping the 45% top rate was a key part of last Friday's mini-budget aimed at boosting growth.
But it has faced a growing backlash from Conservative MPs after market turmoil and a big slide in the polls.
Michael Gove earlier hinted that he would vote against it - but Mr Shapps has now gone further.
The former transport secretary warned Ms Truss not to have a "tin ear" to voters' concerns about rising living costs and to do a U-turn as soon as possible.
"Let's not muddy the water with... tax cuts for wealthy people right now, when the priority needs to be on everyday households," he said.
MPs are not likely to get a chance to vote on the tax changes until next spring, but Mr Shapps suggested enough Tory MPs would join forces with Labour and other opposition parties to defeat it.
"I don't think the House is in a place where it's likely to support that," he told the BBC on the first day of the Conservative conference in Birmingham.
Of course, if the Government does actually back down it'll lessen the likelihood of open civil war in the Commons, but the reputational damage is already done and it is permanent. Everybody now knows who these people are for (rich old men in Southern England and the casino banking industry) and who they're against (everybody else,) and dropping the totemic income tax cut for the rich most likely still won't stop them from reducing or abandoning the uprating of working age benefits.
This Government is incompetent, corrupt, intentionally cruel and suffused by the stench of its own imminent death. None of these things is going to change.
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
The "faraway land, of which we know nothing" argument only holds any conceivable attraction if you believe that the conquest of Ukraine would represent Tsar Vlad's "final territorial demand."
It's entirely reasonable to assume that the despot wants to absorb the whole of Europe east of Berlin directly into the Russian Empire, and reduce the rest of us to terrified, quivering satellites. It's the kind of bloke he is. The earlier we stop him in his tracks by insisting that he doesn't devour the neighbours, the better.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if the collective West had acted decisively against Russia in 2014 then the situation would be a great deal less dangerous than it is now.
I don't think that's a logical assumption at all. I think he wanted Ukraine to be a terrified quivering satellite, and he wants, in general, Russia to be surrounded by a buffer of terrified quivering satellites. It's not a nice, or a very justifiable doctrine, but it is at least a clear and unambiguous one.
We (by which I mean America, 'we' have little to do with it) decided that Ukraine was going to be a Western satellite not a Russian one. It's dressed in language about Ukraine being a free democracy, but Victoria Nuland on tape deciding who the Ukrainian President is going to be doesn't smack much of a free democracy to me - nor could it ever really be. In such a strategic hotspot. Ukraine is always going to have a sponsor.
Now, if America wants to support Ukraine to join the EU/NATO as a thorn in Russia's side, and Ukraine wants that too (as it now seems to) it is free to do that, and it is not wrong morally to do it, but if Russia has a clear and inviolable doctrine of being surrounded by terrified quivering satellites, and we know that, we can hardly claim to be 100% surprised by Russia doing what it has done. Nor should we invent some story about Putin's mad desire to drive a cavalcade of Trabants up the Mall to accept the surrender of the King, because he's never given the slightest indication of that.
You're stunningly naive. Russia is an empire and Putin and his clique are imperialists. They'll keep inventing justifications to grab more territory until effectively opposed. Ukraine would never have been the end of it - if it had been overrun then Moldova would quickly have followed, and then the next round of sabre rattling would very likely have been over "oppressed" Russian speaking minorities in the Baltic States, or perhaps demands for a land corridor to Kaliningrad, and that situation would've been even worse than the predicament that we're in at the moment.
So where does the danger to UK interests start? Even in the fruitiest fantasies of the Russian nationalist crazies, we're not involved. They seem to care so little it's almost offensive.
"So where does the danger to UK interests start? "
- Why did you laugh your head off at the Queen's funeral? Was it drugs?
- Ask him why hedge funders refer to him as their “useful idiot”
- How many millions did you and your mates make after you deliberately devalued the pound with your Faecal event ?
- Have you been interviewed by the Metropolitan Police yet ?
- Liz says its all your doing ? Is this true?
- Why was he laughing at the queen's funeral?
- After the mini budget can he confirm that he and Jake Berry attended a Tory donor's champagne party to celebrate the tax cuts for the rich and uncapping the bankers bonuses.
- Is insider trading still illegal in the U.K, and if so, can you explain why your pre and post budget meetings with traders did not constitute the crime of insider trading?
If Lula doesn’t make 50% those who self indulgently voted for Tebet and Gomes have only themselves to blame if Bolsonaro embarks on a month of mayhem before the second round vote .
Tebet has beaten Gomes. Thronicke, d avilia and Kelmon votes all go to Bolsonaro, Lula could still lose the run off quite comfortably from here. Lula supporters were right to be nervous, the right and centre parties have defied the polls to win this election the only caveat being enough Tebet centre votes breaking for Lula to pip him over the line at the end of the month.
The drift in Brazilian Politics is clearly rightward, not even an error strewn first term from Balsonaro could stem that.
Lula could lose the runoff, but it wouldn't be comfortably.
We should be quietly proud of this. On multiple levels
“In today's demonstration in London, this interesting scene was also created when the march of Iranians reached the gathering of Ukrainians and everyone chanted "All together we will win". #مهسا_امینی #اعتصابات_سراسری #OpIran”
We should be quietly proud of this. On multiple levels
“In today's demonstration in London, this interesting scene was also created when the march of Iranians reached the gathering of Ukrainians and everyone chanted "All together we will win". #مهسا_امینی #اعتصابات_سراسری #OpIran”
We should be quietly proud of this. On multiple levels
“In today's demonstration in London, this interesting scene was also created when the march of Iranians reached the gathering of Ukrainians and everyone chanted "All together we will win". #مهسا_امینی #اعتصابات_سراسری #OpIran”
There will probably appear very soon some poll numbers suggesting that Russians are incredibly enthusiastic about annexation. This was the case in 2014 with annexation of Crimea: on the Russian territory proper polls functioned as ersatz-plebiscites on admission 1/21 https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1576776046984056832
If Lula doesn’t make 50% those who self indulgently voted for Tebet and Gomes have only themselves to blame if Bolsonaro embarks on a month of mayhem before the second round vote .
Isn't Tebet a centre-right candidate?
Yes. She has come third, what her supporters do decides this election in the run off.
Some of them will vote Bolsonaro; some Lula; and some won't vote at all.
It is surprisingly rare that run-offs change winners. And a lead of 48 to 43 is not a small one to overcome. If one-in-seven of non-Lulu/non-Bolsanaro voters don't bother voting in the run-offs (and it will probably be more than that), then Bolsanaro will need to get 83% of the remainder to clinch victory.
If Lula doesn’t make 50% those who self indulgently voted for Tebet and Gomes have only themselves to blame if Bolsonaro embarks on a month of mayhem before the second round vote .
Isn't Tebet a centre-right candidate?
Yes. She has come third, what her supporters do decides this election in the run off.
Some of them will vote Bolsonaro; some Lula; and some won't vote at all.
It is surprisingly rare that run-offs change winners. And a lead of 48 to 43 is not a small one to overcome. If one-in-seven of non-Lulu/non-Bolsanaro voters don't bother voting in the run-offs (and it will probably be more than that), then Bolsanaro will need to get 83% of the remainder to clinch victory.
That's a very high hurdle.
It’s not over, though. And it’s being close-ish does raise the outside possibility of electoral shenanigans, too. It’s harder to fix a landslide.
“Sharif University students flee as riot police chase them on motorbikes while repeated sounds of gunshots and chants of "death to Khamenei" from windows and rooftops of Tehran can be heard, on night 17 of protests in Iran for #MahsaAmini. #مهسا_امینی “
It'll be an ambition, the timing will have acknowledged to be wrong but not the principle. It definitely won't be a u turn. I'll collect on my kwasi and Truss remaining in post 22 bets
It'll be an ambition, the timing will have acknowledged to be wrong but not the principle. It definitely won't be a u turn. I'll collect on my kwasi and Truss remaining in post 22 bets
If that is the case, then the wider political damage will still have been done.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
It'll be an ambition, the timing will have acknowledged to be wrong but not the principle. It definitely won't be a u turn. I'll collect on my kwasi and Truss remaining in post 22 bets
If that is the case, then the wider political damage will still have been done.
F1: 5s time penalty for Perez, so he keeps the win.
Also, got a potential bet in mind for Suzuka, but the market isn't up yet. We shall see if I continue the tradition of being up late for qualifying or the race...
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
These noises off about various banks, Credit Suisse and Deutschebank, to be more specific, don't sound good. There could be a financial crisis in the offing, I have a slight worry.
<<Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, two of the world’s largest banks, are suffering from distressed valuations and the banks’ credit default insurance levels are approaching degrees not seen since 2008.>>
Deutsche hasnt said much but Credit Suisse seems to be confirmed that they are working to calm investors over the weekend, so that, at least, along with what we know from CDS and the ever shrinking share price does suggest its in diffs. Question is, is it fatal and would the Swiss authorities not move to address the fallout?
Both Debit Suisse and Douche Bank are shocking enterprises.
My tream was binned from Debit Suisse Asset Management (we were contractors), a good number of years ago, because the reports created by the system we built strongly suggested that in about 9 months they would go out of business.
As it happened we were wrong. Debit Suisse Asset Managemnet went out of business and the wreckage bought by Aberdeen Investments (IIRC)… six months later.
There will probably appear very soon some poll numbers suggesting that Russians are incredibly enthusiastic about annexation. This was the case in 2014 with annexation of Crimea: on the Russian territory proper polls functioned as ersatz-plebiscites on admission 1/21 https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1576776046984056832
At the end of the day countrys are responsible for their leadership. It means not enough got up to vote or fight them out.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?
Here are some of my thoughts on this: *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties. *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals. *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*) *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote. *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact, Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign. https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576819652902400000
PB has always been too eager for ex-military types. Wallace does not seem to want the job and even hints at retirement, although he is only 52.
Perhaps he is self aware - realising that he is fairly good at his current job and that the possible promotion is a poison chalice at the he best of times.
Biggest risk of this totally self inflicted wound is that the public will simply see chaos and incompetence, not "a listening PM". Also eats at Truss’s single most defining pitch, that 'what you see is what you get'. AND burns all those who stupidly defended the original plan.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
3) Our country is flawed so we shouldn't do anything to help.
Biggest risk of this totally self inflicted wound is that the public will simply see chaos and incompetence, not "a listening PM". Also eats at Truss’s single most defining pitch, that 'what you see is what you get'. AND burns all those who stupidly defended the original plan.
In some ways it's worse, because people were willing to forgive Johnson his total lack of integrity as demonstrated there, or would have been if it were a one off. This goes to the heart of the question of the Tories' fitness to govern.
Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact, Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign. https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576819652902400000
They're going to throw him under the bus, aren't they, in an unedifying attempt to save their worthless selves.
But that doesn't work. If they had any sense they would have told him it was politically tin-eared, economically suicidal and therefore a total non-starter.
We get it and we have made Labour attack lines harder
They're practically steel tipped now.
'They only care about the rich. But they panic when they see others don't agree with them and u-turn. They're cowardly and incompetent as well as greedy and stupid.'
I know it’s not the biggest issue here, but a good comms move is not to announce a gigantic u-turn having briefed out a speech you’re due to deliver that day in which you’re going to say “we must stay the course” https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1576823909743177730
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?
Here are some of my thoughts on this: *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties. *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals. *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*) *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote. *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
Agree with you on every single point, Mr Jessop. That is why we need to have the Single Transferable Vote in Multi-Member Constituencies.
If you have larger constituencies but with several MPs, there is a fairly good chance you will end up with one wo thinks more or less like you. But each elector has only one vote - so we do not end up with one party grabbing all the seats, as happens in council wards with several councillors.
All individual electors have to do is to number candidates in order of preference - something we are asked to do on various issues almost on a daily basis. If I knew that in my constituency we were on past form likely to end up with one Lib Dem, one Labour and one Conservative, but that the fourth seat was still up for grabs, then I would have a very close look at all the candidates.
If the Conservative candidates were Kwarteng, Chope and Rory Stewart, then I would have a decided preference for the intelligent one. And similarly with candidates put up by other parties. Under the present system, there is just one candidate, and if you are a Conservative, you have to vote for whatever the party has decided for you.
If this government crumbles under frankly unhinged media pressure suggesting that a tax burden lower than that of 2018 is unthinkable, it might as well not have won a majority, https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1576729725988315136
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?
Here are some of my thoughts on this: *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties. *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals. *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*) *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote. *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
All desirable points, but the tricky bit is when they push against each other.
There's a lot wrong with political parties and whipping, but they're almost certainly needed if your body is bigger than a parish council. Without them, it's really hard for manifestoes for government to exist. Politicians saying in advance that they are on the same team as Ms Tweedle and Mr Dee is important information for voters.
Many will welcome the u-turn on a policy which was widely unpopular. The problem for the PM and Chancellor now is obviously one of credibility, but also one of purpose. They had so emphatically wedded themselves to tax cuts as their central mission. What do they stand for now? https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1576825345843826699
We should be quietly proud of this. On multiple levels
“In today's demonstration in London, this interesting scene was also created when the march of Iranians reached the gathering of Ukrainians and everyone chanted "All together we will win". #مهسا_امینی #اعتصابات_سراسری #OpIran”
Most of the Tory MPs I spoke to yesterday believed they would not have to rebel, they were pretty certain that despite the PM and chancellor’s insistence, they would have to u-turn. But it is not a great position for government to be in where your own MPs simply don’t believe you https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1576825917284179968
These noises off about various banks, Credit Suisse and Deutschebank, to be more specific, don't sound good. There could be a financial crisis in the offing, I have a slight worry.
<<Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, two of the world’s largest banks, are suffering from distressed valuations and the banks’ credit default insurance levels are approaching degrees not seen since 2008.>>
Deutsche hasnt said much but Credit Suisse seems to be confirmed that they are working to calm investors over the weekend, so that, at least, along with what we know from CDS and the ever shrinking share price does suggest its in diffs. Question is, is it fatal and would the Swiss authorities not move to address the fallout?
Never believe a rumour until it has been officially denied…
PB has always been too eager for ex-military types. Wallace does not seem to want the job and even hints at retirement, although he is only 52.
Perhaps he is self aware - realising that he is fairly good at his current job and that the possible promotion is a poison chalice at the he best of times.
If Wallace were to be appointed by MPs, it would be as a consensus figurehead. His Chancellor would effectively run much of government policy.
A slip of the tongue? Kwasi Kwarteng tells BBC Breakfast the PM DECIDED that the 45p rate should be scrapped ...Then reverses and says they decided together. Decision was made late last night. Chancellor looks like a man who has had the wind completely knocked out of him. https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1576827386393284608
We get it and we have made Labour attack lines harder
They're practically steel tipped now.
'They only care about the rich. But they panic when they see others don't agree with them and u-turn. They're cowardly and incompetent as well as greedy and stupid.'
The "nothing to see here", "distraction which we've got rid of" briefing is a pretty weak counter to that.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?
Here are some of my thoughts on this: *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties. *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals. *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*) *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote. *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
All desirable points, but the tricky bit is when they push against each other.
There's a lot wrong with political parties and whipping, but they're almost certainly needed if your body is bigger than a parish council. Without them, it's really hard for manifestoes for government to exist. Politicians saying in advance that they are on the same team as Ms Tweedle and Mr Dee is important information for voters.
All the Conservative MPs we have now are in the same team, Mr Romford, but that does not mean they all want the same thing. Or do you think it does?
If an MP has the support of his constituents - or at least enough of them to be reasonably confident of being re-elected - then that make him reasonably free of the party whips, and he can take a different view and talk to other MPs (even from different parties!) to try to persuade the rest and push forward their issue.
Parliament becomes a place where people talk and discuss ideas, not just a machine for rubber-stamping whatever a minority who have taken over the leadership of one party group have decided.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.
Not a thoughtful person
You haven't addressed any of the thoughtful arguments he just made. The same critique is more fairly applied to you.
We get it and we have made Labour attack lines harder
They're practically steel tipped now.
'They only care about the rich. But they panic when they see others don't agree with them and u-turn. They're cowardly and incompetent as well as greedy and stupid.'
The "nothing to see here", "distraction which we've got rid of" briefing is a pretty weak counter to that.
That’s clearly the tactic. I’ve already head a handful of them refer to the fantastic reforming budget which was only let down by the distraction of the 45p rate.
Opposition must be careful not to let that myth take hold. Tories are very good at creating myths when in a tight corner.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.
London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.
With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
If this government crumbles under frankly unhinged media pressure suggesting that a tax burden lower than that of 2018 is unthinkable, it might as well not have won a majority, https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1576729725988315136
Liz Truss doesn't have a majority as the 45p u-turn confirms.
If she wants her own majority she needs to call a General Election but until she does so her majority requires getting Tory MPs to support her and they now know they have enough numbers to block anything they don't like..
A slip of the tongue? Kwasi Kwarteng tells BBC Breakfast the PM DECIDED that the 45p rate should be scrapped ...Then reverses and says they decided together. Decision was made late last night. Chancellor looks like a man who has had the wind completely knocked out of him. https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1576827386393284608
So they quickly came crashing down to earth. I would suspect that this is the end of the neoliberal shock therapy.
My concern though is that this means she will stumble on for 2 years. Truss doesn't seem to be anywhere near as competent as a Theresa May, as a zombie PM. We'd be better off with Theresa May.
So Truss and Kwarteng have made the necessary u turn and dumped the cut in the 45p top rate which was polititically toxic at the moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves on the govt’s 45p rate U-turn: “Their kamikaze Budget needs reversing now. As the party of fiscal responsibility and social justice, it will come to the Labour Party to repair the damage this Tory government has done.” https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1576830298297597958
A slip of the tongue? Kwasi Kwarteng tells BBC Breakfast the PM DECIDED that the 45p rate should be scrapped ...Then reverses and says they decided together. Decision was made late last night. Chancellor looks like a man who has had the wind completely knocked out of him. https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1576827386393284608
So they quickly came crashing down to earth. I would suspect that this is the end of the neoliberal shock therapy.
My concern though is that this means she will stumble on for 2 years. Truss doesn't seem to be anywhere near as competent as a Theresa May, as a zombie PM. We'd be better off with Theresa May.
It's ironic to reflect that Theresa May's early u-turn on NI changes was, in a way, what wrecked her premiership.
It was the knowledge she didn't have a majority for her changes plus a belief that her poll lead was unassailable that caused her to u-turn on holding an election.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?
Here are some of my thoughts on this: *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties. *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals. *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*) *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote. *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
All desirable points, but the tricky bit is when they push against each other.
There's a lot wrong with political parties and whipping, but they're almost certainly needed if your body is bigger than a parish council. Without them, it's really hard for manifestoes for government to exist. Politicians saying in advance that they are on the same team as Ms Tweedle and Mr Dee is important information for voters.
Oh, I agree, and it's important not to turn them into holy grails. Like voting at an election: unless you're a party zealot, no one party will probably match everything you want. There will be some policies you love, and some you dislike. Ditto the people within.
There'll be things I dislike about *any* voting system; there will be compromises to the above (except for the sanctity of the actual voting process - I won't back down on that). It's a case of being adult and picking the bext compromise.
I'm not saying we do not have political parties; just that they should be given as little power as possible, whereas they always want to get more power.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.
London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.
With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
Which would still happen in larger multi member constituencies with STV - except that the voice of those outside the winning national plurality (likely to be only 40% of those voting under FPTP) would be far better represented.
The thing is, although it was totemic, the savings from this policy alone weren't that great. There's still a whole raft of other tax cuts planned, and they still might not have the confidence of the markets.
The markets might also think they have no clue if they decide to reverse them.
I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
"Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.
London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.
With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
Currently, Cornwall has six MPs all of them from the ruling Conservative Party. Does this state of things represent the views of Cornwall as a whole?
Minor side effect of Uturn is it will have pissed off newspapers whose ‘lady’s not for turning’ front pages/editorials now look silly. Dents the credibility of no 10 briefing operation. https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1576831525353451523
Utter humiliation for Kwarteng and Truss this morning but I am pleased that the conservative mps have clearly put them both on notice
It looks like the conservative mps were going to vote down the measures and I assume Truss survival will depend on how things are looking by Spring 23 but it is also clear they must have the numbers to remove her
Comments
@MrHarryCole
🚨🚨🚨
NEW: Liz Truss preparing to ditch 45p rate TODAY after late crisis talks with Chancellor
Humiliating climb down plan comes after day of acrimony on Brum
Announcement expected in morn in body blow to new Government
No denial from No10 this eve"
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576719243676364800
Lula 48.1%
Bolsonaro 43.5%
And there is also an undeniable difference between those who chose to flee before the conscription, and those doing so now.
I think we should be prepared to take some. I also fully understand why the Balts and others would refuse.
He’ was also running against a man who did jail time for corruption.
Truss is comparable how, exactly ?
His reaction to the MH17 affair is another example.
This is fascinating.
A common gut bacterium makes a protein resembling insulin closely enough to trigger Type 1 diabetes
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/1/2126323/-A-common-gut-bacterium-makes-a-protein-resembling-insulin-closely-enough-to-trigger-Type-1-diabetes
… In 2018, a study published in Nature took a look at gut bacteria that were most commonly overrepresented in children that had developed Type 1 diabetes compared to normal gut bacteria profiles. The bacterial genus that led all others in that respect (P < 0.001, or 99.9% likelihood of a real effect) is called Parabacteroides. Not clear why that would be, exactly, but keep that name in mind.
In this study, Altindis and colleagues set out to find any proteins among all the known viruses, fungi, and bacteria that might look enough like insulin to trigger an immune response. (We have so much genomic information these days that doing this is not hard at all anymore.) This was a total fishing expedition; they weren’t biased for or against anything in particular. Of all the zillions of known protein sequences out there, they found just 47 candidates with stretches that resembled insB:9-23 closely. Then they narrowed that list down to 17 especially good ones, all from different species, where a lot of the amino acids matched the most important ones known to attract antibodies to insB:9-23.
So they manufactured these 17 peptides (protein snippets of length 15, the same length as insB:9-23) and exposed each of them to human T cells that were already directed against insB:9-23. They also included insB:9-23 itself as a positive control and a random peptide as a negative control. Of course the insB:9-23 peptide evoked a response from the T cells. But only one other peptide out of the other 18 did: the one from a well-known gut bacterium called ... Parabacteroides distasonis 33D.
Parabacteroides, the very same type of bacteria with the strongest correlation to Type 1 diabetes development in children.…
And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.
However, the briefing is all over the place. The FT (4 hrs ago) recons Kwazi will be defending the 45p cut in his speech today;
https://www.ft.com/content/692d9c5a-352e-4008-9961-4fcec0f5584f
Scrapping the 45% top rate was a key part of last Friday's mini-budget aimed at boosting growth.
But it has faced a growing backlash from Conservative MPs after market turmoil and a big slide in the polls.
Michael Gove earlier hinted that he would vote against it - but Mr Shapps has now gone further.
The former transport secretary warned Ms Truss not to have a "tin ear" to voters' concerns about rising living costs and to do a U-turn as soon as possible.
"Let's not muddy the water with... tax cuts for wealthy people right now, when the priority needs to be on everyday households," he said.
MPs are not likely to get a chance to vote on the tax changes until next spring, but Mr Shapps suggested enough Tory MPs would join forces with Labour and other opposition parties to defeat it.
"I don't think the House is in a place where it's likely to support that," he told the BBC on the first day of the Conservative conference in Birmingham.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63110541
Of course, if the Government does actually back down it'll lessen the likelihood of open civil war in the Commons, but the reputational damage is already done and it is permanent. Everybody now knows who these people are for (rich old men in Southern England and the casino banking industry) and who they're against (everybody else,) and dropping the totemic income tax cut for the rich most likely still won't stop them from reducing or abandoning the uprating of working age benefits.
This Government is incompetent, corrupt, intentionally cruel and suffused by the stench of its own imminent death. None of these things is going to change.
Salisbury
Litvinenko.
Two attacks directly on our soil by Russia.
What would you ask him?
https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1576659075953491968?s=46&t=NIUWhggB-x8RwaYkuBB99A
- Why did you laugh your head off at the Queen's funeral? Was it drugs?
- Ask him why hedge funders refer to him as their “useful idiot”
- How many millions did you and your mates make after you deliberately devalued the pound with your Faecal event ?
- Have you been interviewed by the Metropolitan Police yet ?
- Liz says its all your doing ? Is this true?
- Why was he laughing at the queen's funeral?
- After the mini budget can he confirm that he and Jake Berry attended a Tory donor's champagne party to celebrate the tax cuts for the rich and uncapping the bankers bonuses.
- Is insider trading still illegal in the U.K, and if so, can you explain why your pre and post budget meetings with traders did not constitute the crime of insider trading?
- Will you be handing yourself in to the police?
“In today's demonstration in London, this interesting scene was also created when the march of Iranians reached the gathering of Ukrainians and everyone chanted "All together we will win".
#مهسا_امینی
#اعتصابات_سراسری
#OpIran”
https://twitter.com/kavehabbasian/status/1576308397443633155?s=46&t=Oof6jcxWf7QyOvTBOMJ1Ig
38k shares. Britain is perceived as the home of freedom
https://twitter.com/kuntieplopkins/status/1576518577070694400?s=46&t=NIUWhggB-x8RwaYkuBB99A
There will probably appear very soon some poll numbers suggesting that Russians are incredibly enthusiastic about annexation. This was the case in 2014 with annexation of Crimea: on the Russian territory proper polls functioned as ersatz-plebiscites on admission 1/21
https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1576776046984056832
It is surprisingly rare that run-offs change winners. And a lead of 48 to 43 is not a small one to overcome. If one-in-seven of non-Lulu/non-Bolsanaro voters don't bother voting in the run-offs (and it will probably be more than that), then Bolsanaro will need to get 83% of the remainder to clinch victory.
That's a very high hurdle.
And it’s being close-ish does raise the outside possibility of electoral shenanigans, too. It’s harder to fix a landslide.
https://twitter.com/shayan86/status/1576680225621962754?s=46&t=DCBSRcZtnt4XaFy89KAcVg
“Sharif University students flee as riot police chase them on motorbikes while repeated sounds of gunshots and chants of "death to Khamenei" from windows and rooftops of Tehran can be heard, on night 17 of protests in Iran for #MahsaAmini.
#مهسا_امینی “
Ins’allah the protests succeed
To be announced around 7.30.
The current government of "bastards" now finds itself in the same position as Major. In post, not in power.
And with a majority of 80.
I'll collect on my kwasi and Truss remaining in post 22 bets
That's the real similarity.
This is only going to add salt to the wound for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng 👇🏽 https://twitter.com/tomboadle/status/1576814949505978368
F1: 5s time penalty for Perez, so he keeps the win.
Also, got a potential bet in mind for Suzuka, but the market isn't up yet. We shall see if I continue the tradition of being up late for qualifying or the race...
So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
And he's on the back-benches, freed from collective responsibility and, apparently, not worried about the whip.
Can't see that going wrong for Truss. Not at all.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1576813940780285954
Liz Truss has been Prime Minister less than a month and her flagship policy is already dead.
https://news.sky.com/story/truss-to-ditch-plans-to-abolish-45p-rate-of-tax-for-higher-earners-12710900
My tream was binned from Debit Suisse Asset Management (we were contractors), a good number of years ago, because the reports created by the system we built strongly suggested that in about 9 months they would go out of business.
As it happened we were wrong. Debit Suisse Asset Managemnet went out of business and the wreckage bought by Aberdeen Investments (IIRC)… six months later.
Here are some of my thoughts on this:
*) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties.
*) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals.
*) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*)
*) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote.
*) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.
(*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576819652902400000
Also eats at Truss’s single most defining pitch, that 'what you see is what you get'.
AND burns all those who stupidly defended the original plan.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576821243269238784
Straight of the Appeaser Cheat Sheet….
In some ways it's worse, because people were willing to forgive Johnson his total lack of integrity as demonstrated there, or would have been if it were a one off. This goes to the heart of the question of the Tories' fitness to govern.
But that doesn't work. If they had any sense they would have told him it was politically tin-eared, economically suicidal and therefore a total non-starter.
'They only care about the rich. But they panic when they see others don't agree with them and u-turn. They're cowardly and incompetent as well as greedy and stupid.'
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1576823909743177730
If you have larger constituencies but with several MPs, there is a fairly good chance you will end up with one wo thinks more or less like you. But each elector has only one vote - so we do not end up with one party grabbing all the seats, as happens in council wards with several councillors.
All individual electors have to do is to number candidates in order of preference - something we are asked to do on various issues almost on a daily basis. If I knew that in my constituency we were on past form likely to end up with one Lib Dem, one Labour and one Conservative, but that the fourth seat was still up for grabs, then I would have a very close look at all the candidates.
If the Conservative candidates were Kwarteng, Chope and Rory Stewart, then I would have a decided preference for the intelligent one. And similarly with candidates put up by other parties. Under the present system, there is just one candidate, and if you are a Conservative, you have to vote for whatever the party has decided for you.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1576729725988315136
There's a lot wrong with political parties and whipping, but they're almost certainly needed if your body is bigger than a parish council. Without them, it's really hard for manifestoes for government to exist. Politicians saying in advance that they are on the same team as Ms Tweedle and Mr Dee is important information for voters.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1576825345843826699
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/kwasi-kwarteng-doubles-down-on-growth-plan_uk_6339b0f9e4b0e376dbf7c999
Thus far.
Not that it will do any good because the backbenchers now know they have enough members to kill any idea they don't like stone dead...
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1576825917284179968
They are about to learn the downside of forgoing an inclusive frontbench after Truss's win.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576826752902758400
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1576827386393284608
If an MP has the support of his constituents - or at least enough of them to be reasonably confident of being re-elected - then that make him reasonably free of the party whips, and he can take a different view and talk to other MPs (even from different parties!) to try to persuade the rest and push forward their issue.
Parliament becomes a place where people talk and discuss ideas, not just a machine for rubber-stamping whatever a minority who have taken over the leadership of one party group have decided.
He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.
Not a thoughtful person
The same critique is more fairly applied to you.
Opposition must be careful not to let that myth take hold. Tories are very good at creating myths when in a tight corner.
London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.
With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
If she wants her own majority she needs to call a General Election but until she does so her majority requires getting Tory MPs to support her and they now know they have enough numbers to block anything they don't like..
"The Tories have destroyed their economic credibility and damaged trust in the British economy.
"There’s no plan to clear up the mess of 12 years of Tory government. They’re making it up as they go along."
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1576829539535069185
https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802301075156992
By now we've all seen the hunt for scapegoats by Russian military bloggers playing out following the defeat to Ukraine in Lyman
But what did state TV's mammoth Sunday night news shows have to say about it?..
My concern though is that this means she will stumble on for 2 years. Truss doesn't seem to be anywhere near as competent as a Theresa May, as a zombie PM. We'd be better off with Theresa May.
U-turns are not a good look so early in the in the governments life! Necessary though they be.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1576828722690203648
moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1576830298297597958
It was the knowledge she didn't have a majority for her changes plus a belief that her poll lead was unassailable that caused her to u-turn on holding an election.
And the rest, as they say...
There'll be things I dislike about *any* voting system; there will be compromises to the above (except for the sanctity of the actual voting process - I won't back down on that). It's a case of being adult and picking the bext compromise.
I'm not saying we do not have political parties; just that they should be given as little power as possible, whereas they always want to get more power.
The Chancellor tells @bbcbreakfast "95% of the package is what we are 100% focused on."
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1576823197789405184
The markets might also think they have no clue if they decide to reverse them.
Oh dear, Lizzie..
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1576831525353451523
https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1576830566204604417
Utter humiliation for Kwarteng and Truss this morning but I am pleased that the conservative mps have clearly put them both on notice
It looks like the conservative mps were going to vote down the measures and I assume Truss survival will depend on how things are looking by Spring 23 but it is also clear they must have the numbers to remove her