Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕
I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.
But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.
Seems to be a similar dynamic to the US where the rural right wing votes come in first. Opposite to Britain.
Of course that gives Bolsonaro the opportunity to create an arc of hope then betrayal, setting up his followers perfectly for a Jan 6th style coup attempt.
Hmm. Not sure about that - they have electronic voting, so I’m not sure there’s much read across from our paper-vote elections.
Are there any sites which show the geographical breakdown of results?
I have been comparing the results in so far of some states with 2018 totals. I think Lula is going to win the first round by about 10% on that basis.
resultsdos.tse.jus.br That is what gives a breakdown. Sorry I can't post a hyperlink
"It's your fault." "No fucking way, it is your fault," "Bollocks it is,"
Still been no explanation for KK at the funeral right? Is there a deep secret there that’s being protected?
When I was younger, I used to talk to myself whilst walking down the street - mostly not aloud, but sometimes aloud. I didn’t know I was doing it, and I grew out of it. Still do it in the house. Maybe he has that sort of problem?
Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^
The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.
Fucking scary, actually.
Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.
Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.
Juvenile and meaningless journalism
"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."
It is no better than Putin's generalship
THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST
How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?
You know he's right though, don't you.
He is literally saying WE MUST HAVE GRAVITY OR WE WILL FLOAT AWAY INTO SPACE
Only a fucking dimwit spit-roasted by stupidity would think this is incisive, or enlightening, or impressive journalism
Actual cretins enjoy this shit, they are welcome to it
Fortunately we have a PM who has a 'growth plan'. She's not sharing it just yet but I sleep easier knowing she has a plan.
So do I. Especially as her rival for the PM job had a 'shrink plan' that he was very frank about - boasting about his 'realistic' approach.
Why do people think Truss or Kwasi are going anywhere?
Correct. Lots of posters almost fantasising about their early removal, but I think that’s it now, the choice is made for the election. Tbh if you were ambitious you might think inheriting in opposition is a better bet. You can remodel the party into something decent, in the way Cameron and Osbourne tried. Take over next year say - for what?
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
That’s good, and common round here too. I often think our ancestors would think us mad for the way we squander fruit from trees in our gardens and import it in planes from thousands of miles away.
We have quite a few very productive apple trees - far too many for us. But so does just about everyone else in our village, so there's no point offering them to others.
Years ago they would have been made into cider but I'm not a cider fan. Mostly, the birds have them tbh.
One of my colleagues has enough apples that he bought an apple press a few years ago and regularly makes cider. We have definitely become a lot more detached from the yearly cycle, and in some ways we are poorer for it. It’s great having all foods all year round, but there is also great joy in seasonal veg, such as the first asparagus shoots, or the first new potatoes.
I hope I'm not going to regret all those kilos of wasted apples later, during the winter after Armageddon.
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
We do that here. And we often get back jam and cider made from the apples and plums. Fruit that is too damaged gets fed to the turkeys being fattened for Xmas by a local.
Anyway, Eldest Son has caught Covid. Bugger! A bad cough, shivering and cold.
I and my brother are the only ones in the family not to have caught it.
Thanks to whoever linked to Martin Wolf’s FT piece^
The 40 year chart of 10yr Uk govt bond yields is quite something to behold.
Fucking scary, actually.
Unless the new trend reverses, It’s going to have a profound impact on our politics.
Whoever is in government is going to be constrained by balanced budgets.
Juvenile and meaningless journalism
"This is why systematic tax reform would be desirable. There must also be difficult deregulation, notably of land use. The state must supply first-class public goods, in the understanding that these are a social benefit, not a cost. There must be fiscal and monetary stability. There must be far higher investment in physical and human capital, both public and private. There must be higher savings. There must be a pro-growth regional policy. There must be an internationally open economy. There must, not least, be stable and credible policies, not the constant risk of another trade war with our closest neighbours."
It is no better than Putin's generalship
THERE MUST BE ADVANCES. THERE MUST BE VICTORIES. THERE MUST BE A RUSSIAN UKRAINE, THERE MUST, THERE MUST, THERE MUST
How you gonna do it, you fat fucking FT twat?
You know he's right though, don't you.
He is literally saying WE MUST HAVE GRAVITY OR WE WILL FLOAT AWAY INTO SPACE
Only a fucking dimwit spit-roasted by stupidity would think this is incisive, or enlightening, or impressive journalism
Actual cretins enjoy this shit, they are welcome to it
Fortunately we have a PM who has a 'growth plan'. She's not sharing it just yet but I sleep easier knowing she has a plan.
So do I. Especially as her rival for the PM job had a 'shrink plan' that he was very frank about - boasting about his 'realistic' approach.
You're deluded pal.
I'm glad you think of me as a pal, but I'm far from deluded. I am going on public statements, not personal theories.
"Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn Without lots of heavy rain in autumn and winter, water restrictions could be tightened even further"
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
We do that here. And we often get back jam and cider made from the apples and plums. Fruit that is too damaged gets fed to the turkeys being fattened for Xmas by a local.
Anyway, Eldest Son has caught Covid. Bugger! A bad cough, shivering and cold.
I and my brother are the only ones in the family not to have caught it.
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
Or indeed those who might have questioned Chamberlain emptying Britain’s coffers to get the Nazis out of Poland.
Our support for Ukraine is a piffling rounding error compared with that.
This is a deeply malevolent regime probably in its death throes. Listen to the lack of enthusiasm
Young Russians LIKE the West. They like the consumer goods, the internet, the media, the holidays in Spain, Italy, Turkey, the Maldives, and the elite like the flats in London, the villas in Provence, the jobs in California
I have never met a Russian, rich or poor, who has ever expressed a desire for "Holy War" against the West. It is insane. Most of them personally *feel* Western , as compared to being Muslim or Chinese
OTOH there's precious little evidence of Russian opposition to the programme of imperial conquest and brutalisation in Ukraine. It's not just that most of the protest inside the country looks suspiciously like moaning about forced conscriptions rather than the actual morality of the exercise; it's that there is precious little dissent being voiced outside of the country, amongst people who are both entirely free to speak and too unimportant to be pursued by FSB hit squads with glow in the dark teabags. A couple of out-of-favour oligarchs and Pussy Riot does not a mass movement make.
The Russian population, collectively, is either indifferent to the suffering its Government inflicts upon its neighbours or actively approves. The main objections to Putin's campaigns aren't the result of their perceived immorality, but of their incompetent execution and its consequences.
Russia has a deeply nihilistic culture.
A few weeks ago I got curious about what Russians had said about the murder of Boris Nemtsov back in 2015. I figured that even if they didn't like the guy that most of them would have been shocked by the murder. But the vast majority of the comments I read were along the lines of "what did he think would happen?", "serves him right", or "who cares?" Only a small minority seemed to be bothered. I was genuinely suprised at how much acceptance there was for a blatant political assassination.
This is a deeply malevolent regime probably in its death throes. Listen to the lack of enthusiasm
Young Russians LIKE the West. They like the consumer goods, the internet, the media, the holidays in Spain, Italy, Turkey, the Maldives, and the elite like the flats in London, the villas in Provence, the jobs in California
I have never met a Russian, rich or poor, who has ever expressed a desire for "Holy War" against the West. It is insane. Most of them personally *feel* Western , as compared to being Muslim or Chinese
OTOH there's precious little evidence of Russian opposition to the programme of imperial conquest and brutalisation in Ukraine. It's not just that most of the protest inside the country looks suspiciously like moaning about forced conscriptions rather than the actual morality of the exercise; it's that there is precious little dissent being voiced outside of the country, amongst people who are both entirely free to speak and too unimportant to be pursued by FSB hit squads with glow in the dark teabags. A couple of out-of-favour oligarchs and Pussy Riot does not a mass movement make.
The Russian population, collectively, is either indifferent to the suffering its Government inflicts upon its neighbours or actively approves. The main objections to Putin's campaigns aren't the result of their perceived immorality, but of their incompetent execution and its consequences.
My sense is that the pro western Russians are essentially in an impossible position. There is nothing they can do because a majority of Russians support Putin. They've already tried protesting against the regime and the regime outwitted them. All they can do is make some kind of accommodation with the regime. But now things have taken a turn for the worse and they are basically being rounded up and sent off to Ukraine to be cannon fodder in the most brutal, deranged sense. So you can see why a lot of them are fleeing. I am personally very sympathetic, I think they should be accepted as refugees.
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
How much sacrifice are we talking about? Russia started the war, that caused many of the market prices for energy going off the scale, not the UKs response. The German political establishment has hedged and hedged and been, proportionally to what it could do, one of the weakest links in the chain. History will tell that story more fully. Standing up has costs but its worth it in this case.
Russia played blackmail and its not paying off, but it took the US to steady, galvanise and in some cases kick the rest of the West into a strong response.
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
The "faraway land, of which we know nothing" argument only holds any conceivable attraction if you believe that the conquest of Ukraine would represent Tsar Vlad's "final territorial demand."
It's entirely reasonable to assume that the despot wants to absorb the whole of Europe east of Berlin directly into the Russian Empire, and reduce the rest of us to terrified, quivering satellites. It's the kind of bloke he is. The earlier we stop him in his tracks by insisting that he doesn't devour the neighbours, the better.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if the collective West had acted decisively against Russia in 2014 then the situation would be a great deal less dangerous than it is now.
Why do people think Truss or Kwasi are going anywhere?
Correct. Lots of posters almost fantasising about their early removal, but I think that’s it now, the choice is made for the election. Tbh if you were ambitious you might think inheriting in opposition is a better bet. You can remodel the party into something decent, in the way Cameron and Osbourne tried. Take over next year say - for what?
The very serious possibility that enough Conservative MPs rebel, the government could lose a confidence motion. Under that circumstance, Truss would have no choice but to stand aside.
Opposition seems to be crystallising around Gove as the front man for the rebellion, though it's doubtful he's in the running for next leader - more the next knife-wielder.
And for people saying turkeys don't vote for Christmas, it's quite possible that the next two years are existential for the Conservative party. Leaving Truss and co in place for that long could trash the party's brand, permanently. Take PB as a guide - the number of PB tories either abandoning the party or actively promising to vote Labour. That's almost unheard of. Can Conservative MPs really risk another two years of Truss?
If Putin is close to defeat, is now the time to offer him something if we think he might go postal planet killer?
Not sure what. I guess that’s the trouble.
No, because the odds on him going nuclear are still fairly long. 1. People within his own coterie will seek to stop him and 2. I believe the US when they have said they will do a very large retaliation, which will, in effect end Russias ability to win this. And if they lose, Putin is likely done anyway.
In short even if he did, if the West sticks to that stance, Putin is finished
FWIW, a report in the Graun quotes General Petraeus (the ex-CIA director and senior American general) suggesting that NATO would respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by wiping out the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine and sinking the Black Sea fleet.
Besides which, a resort to nuclear weapons is the one atrocity so grave that the United States could use it as a wedge to separate China and India from Putin. In particular, if I were in Biden's place I'd be having conversations with Xi in such circumstances along the lines of (a) trade with Russia or trade with us, you can't have both; and then, if that doesn't force him to drop Putin like a red hot stove, (b) you back this shit using nuclear weapons to wage a war of conquest, and we'll both recognise Taiwanese independence and extend our own nuclear umbrella over the island. You will never, ever get it back.
Putin knows that there are a few lines he can't cross without triggering total economic isolation and the consequent collapse of the Russian economy, and so will all his cronies. If he wants to survive defeat then his best option isn't to resort to the indiscriminate use of WMDs, it's to draw up a long list of internal enemies on whom to blame the Russian army's failures and have them all arrested and tried for treason. Evidence of corruption on the part of almost every soldier above the rank of corporal shouldn't be hard to find for starters.
The Russians using even a single battlefield nuke will trigger mass panic in the west. Shelves cleared of tinned food, fighting in the aisles over the last roll of andrex. The markets will shit themselves. Like what happened last week - cascading margin calls - only much, much worse, and it will be much harder (and costlier) for the government to step in to stabilise things.
Meanwhile, a conventional reply by NATO forces - wiping out Russian positions in Ukraine, Black Sea Fleet, etc, could potentially lead to a deadly escalation. It could, for example, make ordinary Russian soldiers in the chain of command more likely to agree to an order from Putin to use strategic nukes, as they feel as if they are responding to NATO aggression. It could also lead to a deadly miscalculation - Russian radar sees a dozen conventional missiles approaching, mistakes them for a nuclear first strike, responds in kind.
"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play." That is the rational answer. The question is, is Putin rational? The other questions are: would his orders be followed, and what state is the Russian nuclear arsenal in? Questions I don't particularly want to find out the answers to. All I know is, this has the potential to escalate from here, very fast.
The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Putin is fucked, and there is nothing he can do about it now.
Just a minor correction: The events of the past seven months have demonstrated that Western peoples (except for the German political establishment) are not pathetic cowards who will let the Russians roll over Ukraine for fear of their living standards being adversely affected.
Just a major correction, it is neither pathetic, nor cowardice, to question the extent to which Britain should sacrifice the wellbeing of its own subjects in the cause of beating the Russians back from Kherson or Lyshansk. I suspect the same moralising arguments were used against contemporaries who questioned Richard the Lionheart emptying England's coffers to get the Saracens out of the Holy Land.
Or indeed those who might have questioned Chamberlain emptying Britain’s coffers to get the Nazis out of Poland.
Our support for Ukraine is a piffling rounding error compared with that.
Or those who questioned us getting into a national virility competition with the Kaiser - a war which finished us as the pre-eminent world power, and lead to the Nazis in the first place.
Meanwhile, in Bulgaria, the party bloc led by former Prime Minister Stefan Yanev looks set to break into the National Assembly. The latest poll puts Bulgaria Rise at 4.9%.
The latest seat prediction (240 seats in the National Assembly):
GERB-SDS - 63 (+4) Change Continues (PP) - 53 (-14) Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS) - 41 (+7) Revival - 27 (+15) BSP - 24 (-2) Democratic Bulgaria - 19 (+3) Bulgaria Rise - 13 (+13)
The ITN group will lose all 19 seats.
Will they still be allowed to present News At Ten? 😕
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
We do that here. And we often get back jam and cider made from the apples and plums. Fruit that is too damaged gets fed to the turkeys being fattened for Xmas by a local.
Anyway, Eldest Son has caught Covid. Bugger! A bad cough, shivering and cold.
I and my brother are the only ones in the family not to have caught it.
I find it almost impossible to believe that you (or indeed anyone) hasn’t had it by now. You may well have had a very mild dose and not thought anything of it?
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
TL:DR. They are planning to clawback the £650 in energy support for UC claimants. Despite the obvious. It won't be the same people. And, of course, it was either needed or not.
just to add to my last comment. In terms of men of fighting age, surely the "deserters" from Russia have a much better claim for asylum in the west, than those from Ukraine?
In the street where my son and his family live a large bucket of apples lies at a neighbours gate
Anyone passing can help themselves to an apple or two, and the neighbour just keeps filling the bucket from her apple trees
We really do need happy stories
We do that here. And we often get back jam and cider made from the apples and plums. Fruit that is too damaged gets fed to the turkeys being fattened for Xmas by a local.
Anyway, Eldest Son has caught Covid. Bugger! A bad cough, shivering and cold.
I and my brother are the only ones in the family not to have caught it.
I find it almost impossible to believe that you (or indeed anyone) hasn’t had it by now. You may well have had a very mild dose and not thought anything of it?
I am beginning to wonder. I've not had it. Although my wife and I basically pretty much shielded through most of 2020-March this year.
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
They might be able to make that work if they also ditch the triple lock.
Oh, and ditch truss.
And the 45p cut.
You will still be asking markets to fund a 7.something % deficit when Fed rates are at 3%. It is hard to explain how much damage the energy cap does to everything else.
Liz Truss. Why did the Tories choose that as a hill to die on?
Because the party membership has a very high average age and a lot of them are senile?
They want very high interest rates and they are determined to get them?
It is the end point of Brexit. The triumph of faith over reason.
Anyone who looked like they had ability had to go, be removed from the field in case they found a way to frustrate The Project. We have all seen how the Leavers lived in terror of Remain reversing the outcome. Ability had to be disposed of, only the inept could stay in power.
Of course, a secondary outcome is that less and less got done, but that was OK because eventually The Great Chancer was elected and brutally ejected anyone of ability until he was surrounded by utter non-entities and it was all going so well until the bl**dy idiot shot himself in the foot.
And all of a sudden, there was nobody left except, the vacant, the inept and the easily led.
And now they are the government.
A pretty tenuous link at best and a sign of desperation, from one of the irreconcilables, to try and link this to Brexit. Not least of course because, in case you had forgotten, Liz Truss campaigned strongly for Remain.
I am not desperate in the slightest. I argued my view and lost and I received a lot of flack for it, but it is done and I have moved on and view the consequences with a curious mix of disappointment and amusement.
And as I pointed out in another reply, Truss was never really a Remainer. She was an opportunist who was on the other side pretty quickly when she thought that would be better for her rise to power (and she was correct).
That really is rubbish. She wasn't just a luke-warm Remainer, she campaigned very strongly for Remain giving numerous speeches and doing far more than many others who were on the Remain side. trying to paint her now as some sort of secret Leaver is just a sad attempt to rewrite history with no basis in fact.
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
Lula has shortened quite a bit to 1.45ish. I was tempted to stick something on at 1.6 as a value bet - despite the fact that I’ve drunk a bottle of wine and know nothing about Brazilian politics. Probably best I stay out of this market, on second thoughts.
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
This is a deeply malevolent regime probably in its death throes. Listen to the lack of enthusiasm
Young Russians LIKE the West. They like the consumer goods, the internet, the media, the holidays in Spain, Italy, Turkey, the Maldives, and the elite like the flats in London, the villas in Provence, the jobs in California
I have never met a Russian, rich or poor, who has ever expressed a desire for "Holy War" against the West. It is insane. Most of them personally *feel* Western , as compared to being Muslim or Chinese
OTOH there's precious little evidence of Russian opposition to the programme of imperial conquest and brutalisation in Ukraine. It's not just that most of the protest inside the country looks suspiciously like moaning about forced conscriptions rather than the actual morality of the exercise; it's that there is precious little dissent being voiced outside of the country, amongst people who are both entirely free to speak and too unimportant to be pursued by FSB hit squads with glow in the dark teabags. A couple of out-of-favour oligarchs and Pussy Riot does not a mass movement make.
The Russian population, collectively, is either indifferent to the suffering its Government inflicts upon its neighbours or actively approves. The main objections to Putin's campaigns aren't the result of their perceived immorality, but of their incompetent execution and its consequences.
My sense is that the pro western Russians are essentially in an impossible position. There is nothing they can do because a majority of Russians support Putin. They've already tried protesting against the regime and the regime outwitted them. All they can do is make some kind of accommodation with the regime. But now things have taken a turn for the worse and they are basically being rounded up and sent off to Ukraine to be cannon fodder in the most brutal, deranged sense. So you can see why a lot of them are fleeing. I am personally very sympathetic, I think they should be accepted as refugees.
The Poles, Balts and Finns all seem to have drawn the conclusion that most of the Russians running away are draft dodging to save their necks, rather than seeking political asylum. I sympathise with their arguments.
There's no advantage to Europe in taking in destabilising quantities of young Russian men who are completely OK with Putin's savagery, but just don't want to be exposed to any physical risks themselves. Let them be packed off to Ukraine and take their chances - they've always got the option of surrendering to Ukrainian captivity if they don't want to fight.
For the first time in more than a dozen years I think we have a decent chance of a Labour government. It's needed.
More than a decent chance. Every time Truss goes near a microphone the odds should drop.
Tory Corbyn. Total poison on the doorsteps would be my guess, although we will only know for sure after next May's locals, if she lasts that long.
We'll know sooner than that.
The first post-conference polls should show how toxic she has become. Our shrewd pizza-eating host, TSE, has a bet on Tories dipping below 15%. (Not sure what the time frame is but it doesn't matter; she's not going to be PM for very long.)
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
Lula has shortened quite a bit to 1.45ish. I was tempted to stick something on at 1.6 as a value bet - despite the fact that I’ve drunk a bottle of wine and know nothing about Brazilian politics. Probably best I stay out of this market, on second thoughts.
Is it beginning to look like the strangely confident Bolsonaro camp may have pulled off a shock win? 😕
I think the polls are broadly right and the betting markets, wrong.
But we’ll soon find out if in fact it is me that is the idiot.
Seems to be a similar dynamic to the US where the rural right wing votes come in first. Opposite to Britain.
Of course that gives Bolsonaro the opportunity to create an arc of hope then betrayal, setting up his followers perfectly for a Jan 6th style coup attempt.
Hmm. Not sure about that - they have electronic voting, so I’m not sure there’s much read across from our paper-vote elections.
Are there any sites which show the geographical breakdown of results?
I have been comparing the results in so far of some states with 2018 totals. I think Lula is going to win the first round by about 10% on that basis.
resultsdos.tse.jus.br That is what gives a breakdown. Sorry I can't post a hyperlink
Resultados.tsw.jus.br
Sorry editors it is tse not tsw
Resultados - predictico flamingo.
Bolsonaro, homo del vulva, globular pukus, Lula, jailbreaky - secondo cumminglingus, breastycino!
.@trussliz at the @ConHome 1922 Cttee drinks reception. "It's not just the UK that needs to become competitive, its the entire free world. Frankly we haven't made enough Conservative arguments for the past few years. The City is a good thing, financial services are a good thing." https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576687555671883776
Benefits may only rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, as ministers look to cover the cost of the £650 energy bailout for Universal Credit claimants.
Tory insiders also argue it will be easier to see off any attempt by Labour to expose any government weakness via a humble address or opposition day motion because they still have a whopping majority and an effective whipping operation. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1576689161163063296
As a working class Tory I have no problem with bankers bonus removal as it is not tax payers money but I can’t support the 45p tax removal when nurses are struggling to pay their bills. #constiuentsfirst . If Tory party @JakeBerry don’t want this working class MP, fair enough 10:00 PM · Oct 2, 2022"
As a working class Tory I have no problem with bankers bonus removal as it is not tax payers money but I can’t support the 45p tax removal when nurses are struggling to pay their bills. #constiuentsfirst . If Tory party @JakeBerry don’t want this working class MP, fair enough 10:00 PM · Oct 2, 2022"
As a working class Tory I have no problem with bankers bonus removal as it is not tax payers money but I can’t support the 45p tax removal when nurses are struggling to pay their bills. #constiuentsfirst . If Tory party @JakeBerry don’t want this working class MP, fair enough 10:00 PM · Oct 2, 2022"
Comments
No chance of getting 45p through the House.
Lula may move ahead as more urban areas report but Bolsonaro's lead in early reporting rural areas may be enough to ensure he gets to a runoff
I hope I'm not going to regret all those kilos of wasted apples later, during the winter after Armageddon.
Anyway, Eldest Son has caught Covid. Bugger! A bad cough, shivering and cold.
I and my brother are the only ones in the family not to have caught it.
It's Eve-en a healthy notion.
Bols 3.05
Currently with 50% counted he's winning 52/36.
How is he so short.... Wait, big move in his numbers. Now out past 3.
Our support for Ukraine is a piffling rounding error compared with that.
Usually that’s a sign of a market with a lot of seriously dumb money being thrown around.
I recon the polls were right all along. I regret not putting my mortgage on Lula.
Not that I have a mortgage, thankfully
A few weeks ago I got curious about what Russians had said about the murder of Boris Nemtsov back in 2015. I figured that even if they didn't like the guy that most of them would have been shocked by the murder. But the vast majority of the comments I read were along the lines of "what did he think would happen?", "serves him right", or "who cares?" Only a small minority seemed to be bothered. I was genuinely suprised at how much acceptance there was for a blatant political assassination.
Or the latest purge of wets from Blukip takes shape 😈
Russia played blackmail and its not paying off, but it took the US to steady, galvanise and in some cases kick the rest of the West into a strong response.
It's entirely reasonable to assume that the despot wants to absorb the whole of Europe east of Berlin directly into the Russian Empire, and reduce the rest of us to terrified, quivering satellites. It's the kind of bloke he is. The earlier we stop him in his tracks by insisting that he doesn't devour the neighbours, the better.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if the collective West had acted decisively against Russia in 2014 then the situation would be a great deal less dangerous than it is now.
Opposition seems to be crystallising around Gove as the front man for the rebellion, though it's doubtful he's in the running for next leader - more the next knife-wielder.
And for people saying turkeys don't vote for Christmas, it's quite possible that the next two years are existential for the Conservative party. Leaving Truss and co in place for that long could trash the party's brand, permanently. Take PB as a guide - the number of PB tories either abandoning the party or actively promising to vote Labour. That's almost unheard of. Can Conservative MPs really risk another two years of Truss?
Major blow for Universal credit claimants with next years’ promised payment rise set to be massively reduced
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19984663/universal-credit-payments-massively-reduced/
Bols won it 72/27 in 2018, with 22% counted he's winning 57/33.
What betting markets doing?
It's needed.
I was raised on News At Ten.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19984663/universal-credit-payments-massively-reduced/
Now the price of the energy bailout may be taken off that uplift as ministers look to save billions across Whitehall.
A government source said: "Claimants have been given a lot of support already this year so that should be factored in."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19984663/universal-credit-payments-massively-reduced/
"Fury as Gove stokes revolt".
Raging, raging against the dying of the light.
Oh, and ditch truss.
And the 45p cut.
They are planning to clawback the £650 in energy support for UC claimants.
Despite the obvious. It won't be the same people.
And, of course, it was either needed or not.
In terms of men of fighting age, surely the "deserters" from Russia have a much better claim for asylum in the west, than those from Ukraine?
Lula 4/9
Bols 9/4
… for those who like old money odds
Haven't they thought about being wealthier?
Tory Corbyn. Total poison on the doorsteps would be my guess, although we will only know for sure after next May's locals, if she lasts that long.
While Truss is technically safe for a year under current party rules, the MP hopes it will encourage others to call for a change of leader
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1576686423205642240
I have visions of everyone in the area having apple crumble for their Sunday pud.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1576686862017921024
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1576684772130422785
6% rather than 9.9% will be offered...
There's no advantage to Europe in taking in destabilising quantities of young Russian men who are completely OK with Putin's savagery, but just don't want to be exposed to any physical risks themselves. Let them be packed off to Ukraine and take their chances - they've always got the option of surrendering to Ukrainian captivity if they don't want to fight.
The first post-conference polls should show how toxic she has become. Our shrewd pizza-eating host, TSE, has a bet on Tories dipping below 15%. (Not sure what the time frame is but it doesn't matter; she's not going to be PM for very long.)
I think he'll collect.
The 4th lock is that no Con PM will ever change it because the client vote will rebel.
“We haven’t made enough Conservative arguments for the past few years… the city is a good thing” https://twitter.com/TaliFraser/status/1576687446242512896/photo/1
Whatever, I backed Lula at 1.4 on Friday and I'm confident.
Bolsonaro, homo del vulva, globular pukus,
Lula, jailbreaky - secondo cumminglingus, breastycino!
Boutros boutros.
"It's not just the UK that needs to become competitive, its the entire free world. Frankly we haven't made enough Conservative arguments for the past few years. The City is a good thing, financial services are a good thing."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576687555671883776
Well fuck that. They went for Mordaunt, drinking Frost's woke Kool-aid. They can suck it up.
A party which knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
She says they will succeed and by the end of 2023 “we will see spades in the ground” in great cities, towns across UK.
Says that’s what will win the Tories the next election.
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1576687928683569152
Meanwhile, a fair chunk of her MPs think the only hole in the ground she's currently digging is their political graves.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576688758220820480
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1576688838381969408
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1576689161163063296
Big gamble. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/kwasi-kwarteng-doubles-down-on-growth-plan_uk_6339b0f9e4b0e376dbf7c999
I don't think I've ever seen someone reading the Mail or the Express and smiling. Guardian readers always look concerned.
And how much control will they have whenTSE collects because the Party is recording <15% in the national polls.
"Maria Caulfield MP
@mariacaulfield
As a working class Tory I have no problem with bankers bonus removal as it is not tax payers money but I can’t support the 45p tax removal when nurses are struggling to pay their bills. #constiuentsfirst . If Tory party @JakeBerry don’t want this working class MP, fair enough
10:00 PM · Oct 2, 2022"
https://twitter.com/mariacaulfield/status/1576678505332383744
What a bonkers betting market.
Fair value would have been 1/15 vs 15/1 all along.
They seem to be acting as if the last week didn't happen. Truss is master of all she surveys, Kwasi is a genius, and all is going to plan.