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No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited October 1
    Needless to say it looks like Charles is getting his own back by making sure everyone knows it was a row or disagreement that led up to him not going after all
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    I don’t grudge Kwasi a bit of champagne after delivering a “budget”.

    I do mind him sharing his plans with hedge fund mates.

    Get rid with extreme prejudice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Kwasi went to proper Trinity.
    My brother was a contemporary of Kwarteng at Trinity, but he studied Mathematics and was involved with the Lib Dems, so probably didn't know him.
    I was at Trinity at the same time as Kwasi, albeit I was a year or two ahead of him.
    I knew him reasonably well - to the extent of going for a drink occasionally with him when we both worked in finance.
    What about now when his finance doesn't work?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225

    @PedestrianRock

    Thanks PR.

    Yes that rather confirms my view but I will wait and see what SKS says about voting reform.

    I don’t think he will take a stance on it until the election. It might be too easy an attack line to lend itself to the ‘Coalition of Chaos’ thing.

    What would be funny, though, is that there’s a scenario where the Tories look like hypocrites on the Coalition of Chaos front - if they end up on 270ish votes they could cling to power by doing a deal with the SNP, in exchange for IndyRef2. In such a scenario, you would imagine that the SNP would hold the same power over Labour and the Lib Dems, but they might refuse it and prefer to try for Confidence and supply without them. It would be an all time gamble, but if they’re worried that Labour and the Lib Dems would force through PR and therefore hurt the chances of IndyRef2 happening for the foreseeable future, the SNP might gamble, reasoning that lower popularity in Westminster in the future wouldn’t matter if they won independence.

    Hmmm, I see where you are coming from but in the ineffable view of Our Great and Good Host, the Tories these days are "uncoalitionable".
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    rcs1000 said:

    It's amazing to think that - just over six years ago - it was Cameron and Osborne in charge, having just secured a majority Government.

    The Lib Dems protected the Conservatives from themselves.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    Off topic, but I think this Washington Post story ($) will interest many of you: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/09/30/warming-up-dundee-scotland/

    "Some cities have a past that is beautiful in the present. Old buildings and public spaces effortlessly become tourist attractions long after their reason for being has disappeared. Venice is like that. So is Paris.

    Other cities carry their past into the present as an unavoidable burden, sprucing up their edges with beautiful things, new and old, to distract attention. Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, is one of those. So is Baltimore, my home."

    David Brown recommends Dundee as a tourist destination, though in a way that might not attract every American tourist. (I found his descriptions of Dundee's past -- and present -- fascinating, but don't know how many other Americans would.)

    Mm, interesting to see how it is put over to Amwericans. The story doesn't include the Unicorn frigate, but there is only so much space!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Needless to say it looks like Charles is getting his own back by making sure everyone knows it was a row.

    She's still a republican then?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    I'm sorry, you also need to put things in there about the dangers of Covid vaccines, or no-one in Pro-Russian Twitter will take you seriously:


    Yeah, that the 9th step, complain about vegan food, anti-vax quackery, maybe a bit of light anti-semitism. Very multi purpose step 9.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    NEW: The King, a passionate environmental campaigner, has abandoned plans to attend next month’s Cop27 climate change summit after Liz Truss told him to stay away…

    He had intended to deliver a speech at the meeting of world leaders in Egypt.

    Truss, who is also unlikely to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, objected to the King’s plans during a personal audience at Buckingham Palace last month.


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1576267291817234432

    [intake of breath] The Royalists will be on her case now, never mind the RSPCA and RSPB and NT.
    She has no protection. It’s going to be story after story from now on. From every angle.

    If she isn’t already, she’s going to be the most hated woman in Britain.

    I almost feel sorry for her…
    The only ones she hasn't pissed off are the RNLI, but that is because Ms Patel got in first.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    I'm sorry, you also need to put things in there about the dangers of Covid vaccines, or no-one in Pro-Russian Twitter will take you seriously:


    This was what was so funny about Putin’s speech. He seemed to aim it as much at American social media trolls as Russians.

    First the far left: imperialism, CIA controlling everything, slavery, Opium wars, Anglo Saxons. All the greatest hits except Israel because he wants to keep them on side.

    Then the far right and QAnon: satanists and paedophiles, gays and transgender people, pronouns, the full suite.

    A speech to appeal to both Corbynistas and MAGA, while tickling the gonads of Hindu nationalists and the CCP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,109
    edited October 1
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Kwasi went to proper Trinity.
    My brother was a contemporary of Kwarteng at Trinity, but he studied Mathematics and was involved with the Lib Dems, so probably didn't know him.
    I was at Trinity at the same time as Kwasi, albeit I was a year or two ahead of him.
    I knew him reasonably well - to the extent of going for a drink occasionally with him when we both worked in finance.
    You told us he ran rings around Tristram Hunt at the Union.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    You also forgot: Block anyone who posts anything even vaguely questioning of your views.



    But not, I suspect, in the way he thinks it will.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    By convention the monarch shouldn’t comment on political points, but is at liberty to talk about wider global issues and things where there is a general UK consensus.

    This decision tells us something very telling: that Truss sees climate change as a partisan political issue.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962
    Evening all :)

    Election night in Latvia - the New Unity party has won 22.5% according to the exit poll, United List is on 11.5% and the Union of Greens and Farmers on 10.9%.

    After that, the National Alliance are on 8.4% and the Progressives on 8.3%.

    For Stability (5.4%), Latvia First (5.3%) and Development For! (5.2%) are all likely to be in the next Saeima.

    Looks as though both the three top polling parties from the 2018 election who took 55 of the 100 seats between them will all miss out this time so that's quite a churn.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,109

    Talk TV (I know!) discussing the Mirror apologising to Kwasi for "wrongly captioning" an article about him.

    Right decision. An embarrassing mistake. Better than responding by saying he isn't really black anyway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    I'm sorry, you also need to put things in there about the dangers of Covid vaccines, or no-one in Pro-Russian Twitter will take you seriously:


    This was what was so funny about Putin’s speech. He seemed to aim it as much at American social media trolls as Russians.

    First the far left: imperialism, CIA controlling everything, slavery, Opium wars, Anglo Saxons. All the greatest hits except Israel because he wants to keep them on side.

    Then the far right and QAnon: satanists and paedophiles, gays and transgender people, pronouns, the full suite.

    A speech to appeal to both Corbynistas and MAGA, while tickling the gonads of Hindu nationalists and the CCP.
    Yes, the evidence points the Russia upper political class being really deep into an extremely-online-Twitter bubble discourse. They talk about things that resonate with ultra niche Twitter groups as if they are massive wide scale everyday things.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    edited October 1
    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    NEW: The King, a passionate environmental campaigner, has abandoned plans to attend next month’s Cop27 climate change summit after Liz Truss told him to stay away…

    He had intended to deliver a speech at the meeting of world leaders in Egypt.

    Truss, who is also unlikely to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, objected to the King’s plans during a personal audience at Buckingham Palace last month.


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1576267291817234432

    [intake of breath] The Royalists will be on her case now, never mind the RSPCA and RSPB and NT.
    She has no protection. It’s going to be story after story from now on. From every angle.

    If she isn’t already, she’s going to be the most hated woman in Britain.

    I almost feel sorry for her…
    The only ones she hasn't pissed off are the RNLI, but that is because Ms Patel got in first.
    I just like her even more for slapping Charles in the chops. Private jet to Cop27 to lecture us all about the evils of carbon - I am a Monarchist but fuck off.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Good news. I already have one.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    By convention the monarch shouldn’t comment on political points, but is at liberty to talk about wider global issues and things where there is a general UK consensus.

    This decision tells us something very telling: that Truss sees climate change as a partisan political issue.
    I understand that convention, that’s okay but climate change is something he should be able to talk about . Clearly Truss will be trashing environmental rules and of course with her views on fracking Charles isn’t going to be very happy .
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,437

    I don’t grudge Kwasi a bit of champagne after delivering a “budget”.

    I do mind him sharing his plans with hedge fund mates.

    Get rid with extreme prejudice.

    Clement Attlee had zero hesitation in sacking his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hugh Dalton, for leaking budget secrets to a journalist.

    In that instance, the CoE made a unguarded, off-hand remark.

    As opposed to inviting insiders to a champagne social, after giving them all goody bags courtesy of the Treasury.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Kwasi went to proper Trinity.
    My brother was a contemporary of Kwarteng at Trinity, but he studied Mathematics and was involved with the Lib Dems, so probably didn't know him.
    I was at Trinity at the same time as Kwasi, albeit I was a year or two ahead of him.
    I knew him reasonably well - to the extent of going for a drink occasionally with him when we both worked in finance.
    You told us he ran rings around Tristram Hunt at the Union.
    Given Tristram Hunt's intellectual vacuity that was the equivalent of outwitting a Russian troll.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    By convention the monarch shouldn’t comment on political points, but is at liberty to talk about wider global issues and things where there is a general UK consensus.

    This decision tells us something very telling: that Truss sees climate change as a partisan political issue.
    I understand that convention, that’s okay but climate change is something he should be able to talk about . Clearly Truss will be trashing environmental rules and of course with her views on fracking Charles isn’t going to be very happy .
    He should absolutely be allowed to talk about climate change. It really isn’t (yet, unlike in America) a contested partisan issue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    I'm sorry, you also need to put things in there about the dangers of Covid vaccines, or no-one in Pro-Russian Twitter will take you seriously:


    This was what was so funny about Putin’s speech. He seemed to aim it as much at American social media trolls as Russians.

    First the far left: imperialism, CIA controlling everything, slavery, Opium wars, Anglo Saxons. All the greatest hits except Israel because he wants to keep them on side.

    Then the far right and QAnon: satanists and paedophiles, gays and transgender people, pronouns, the full suite.

    A speech to appeal to both Corbynistas and MAGA, while tickling the gonads of Hindu nationalists and the CCP.
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    I you want a quick and easy way to 10-50k Twitter followers then jsut use Alistair's How to be a Pro-Russian Ukraine War Account.

    First you need the correct iconography in your Twitter name. I'd go with ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺
    Second, declare a city in Ukraine key to Russia's plans and a total fortress that Ukraine would be a fool to attack
    Third, when Ukraine attacks make a post with a few hours declaring the attack a Ukrainian debacle and that hundred, possible thousands are dead long with 50+ armoured fighting vehicles lost.
    Fourth, when verified Ukrainian advances are made clear post that it's all part of the plan and the UAF are being lured into a trap because Russia are masters of some made up word, anything Russian sounding will do.
    Fifth, as advances continue hype up the arrival of elite reinforcements who will smash the UAF
    Sixth, this is the tricky bit - write a long form blog posy about how Russia have Ukraine exactly where they want them and release it 4-12 hours before confirmation that Ukraine has liberated the city.
    Seventh, praise Russia for making Ukraine waste irreplaceable NATO ammo
    Eight, declare that city was unimportant and is part of a broader strategic feint.
    Ninth, (optional) complain about Vegan food
    Tenth, repeat this as many times as your ego can take until you eventually crack under the weight of Shiba memes being posted in your responses and you lock your account.

    I'm sorry, you also need to put things in there about the dangers of Covid vaccines, or no-one in Pro-Russian Twitter will take you seriously:


    This was what was so funny about Putin’s speech. He seemed to aim it as much at American social media trolls as Russians.

    First the far left: imperialism, CIA controlling everything, slavery, Opium wars, Anglo Saxons. All the greatest hits except Israel because he wants to keep them on side.

    Then the far right and QAnon: satanists and paedophiles, gays and transgender people, pronouns, the full suite.

    A speech to appeal to both Corbynistas and MAGA, while tickling the gonads of Hindu nationalists and the CCP.
    Basically, all the talking points he has been getting his troll farms to push for years.

    The poisoning of social media needs to be looked at - and lessons learned. Freedom of speech has been abused by those who have no use of it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    Even already dead trees aren't much use, the sun and wind can't get at the middle until they are logged and split
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Good news. I already have one.
    I'm very glad I've got one too. I also still have three pallets to cut up. I'm not that bothered so far because my woodstore is currently quite full.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    NEW: The King, a passionate environmental campaigner, has abandoned plans to attend next month’s Cop27 climate change summit after Liz Truss told him to stay away…

    He had intended to deliver a speech at the meeting of world leaders in Egypt.

    Truss, who is also unlikely to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, objected to the King’s plans during a personal audience at Buckingham Palace last month.


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1576267291817234432

    [intake of breath] The Royalists will be on her case now, never mind the RSPCA and RSPB and NT.
    She has no protection. It’s going to be story after story from now on. From every angle.

    If she isn’t already, she’s going to be the most hated woman in Britain.

    I almost feel sorry for her…
    The only ones she hasn't pissed off are the RNLI, but that is because Ms Patel got in first.
    I just like her even more for slapping Charles in the chops. Private jet to Cop27 to lecture us all about the evils of carbon - I am a Monarchist but fuck off.
    How is he supposed to get there ? Most leaders will always need to take a plane to any international meetings.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,129

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Cambridge inter collegiate rivalry is the best rivalry. Could the stakes possibly be lower?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Election night in Latvia - the New Unity party has won 22.5% according to the exit poll, United List is on 11.5% and the Union of Greens and Farmers on 10.9%.

    After that, the National Alliance are on 8.4% and the Progressives on 8.3%.

    For Stability (5.4%), Latvia First (5.3%) and Development For! (5.2%) are all likely to be in the next Saeima.

    Looks as though both the three top polling parties from the 2018 election who took 55 of the 100 seats between them will all miss out this time so that's quite a churn.

    I love the "union of Greens and Farmers". Excellent.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,870

    So, back online after a week on a paradise
    island with the phone and laptop switched off! First plane ride since before the pandemic.

    I know that there was a hurricane in Florida, because airport lounges still have CNN on, and I know that Liverpool and Brighton shared six goals a couple of hours ago, because Emirates Airline now has a live sports TV channel!

    I’ll take a guess that there’s still a war in Ukraine, and that those who didn’t like tax cuts a week ago, still aren’t particular fans of the UK government? Oh, and Dubai finally dropped their indoors mask requirement, just in time for tourist season.

    Now to see if there’s anything important in the 300 emails, and catch up on what’s happened in the world for the past week.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    I don’t grudge Kwasi a bit of champagne after delivering a “budget”.

    I do mind him sharing his plans with hedge fund mates.

    Get rid with extreme prejudice.

    Clement Attlee had zero hesitation in sacking his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hugh Dalton, for leaking budget secrets to a journalist.

    In that instance, the CoE made a unguarded, off-hand remark.

    As opposed to inviting insiders to a champagne social, after giving them all goody bags courtesy of the Treasury.
    I thought he was supposed to have briefed them before the budget was announced rather than after? That would be an issue for me indeed. But if it is afterwards then what is he being attacked for (apart from delivering the worst budget in British political history that is)?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    nico679 said:

    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    NEW: The King, a passionate environmental campaigner, has abandoned plans to attend next month’s Cop27 climate change summit after Liz Truss told him to stay away…

    He had intended to deliver a speech at the meeting of world leaders in Egypt.

    Truss, who is also unlikely to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, objected to the King’s plans during a personal audience at Buckingham Palace last month.


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1576267291817234432

    [intake of breath] The Royalists will be on her case now, never mind the RSPCA and RSPB and NT.
    She has no protection. It’s going to be story after story from now on. From every angle.

    If she isn’t already, she’s going to be the most hated woman in Britain.

    I almost feel sorry for her…
    The only ones she hasn't pissed off are the RNLI, but that is because Ms Patel got in first.
    I just like her even more for slapping Charles in the chops. Private jet to Cop27 to lecture us all about the evils of carbon - I am a Monarchist but fuck off.
    How is he supposed to get there ? Most leaders will always need to take a plane to any international meetings.
    Well he's not. He should be delighted about the CO2 he's saving.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    He is a fat old creep who travels by private jet between his 57 palaces. Not supported by me.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,251
    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    The Queen addressed COP26, as I recall, and no one batted an eyelid. I suspect this is just Liz's anti-Woke unit feeling they need to do something, anything.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,129

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    Great, we’re going to get a rampaging horde of compete ijits cutting down every tree for miles around now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited October 1
    IshmaelZ said:

    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    He is a fat old creep who travels by private jet between his 57 palaces. Not supported by me.
    Truss isn't fat.

    Oh sorry, you meant Charles?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    My woodstore is full - both for this winter and next.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    The moment the King decides to oppose the Government, the screaming about the unelected monarch overriding the will of elected MPs will begin. It's the main disadvantage of not having a President.

    That said, given that her platform centres on a near-total repudiation of the 2019 Tory manifesto, it can plausibly be argued that Truss is hardly more representative of the will of the people than Charles is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,109
    Neither Kwasi nor Truss are thick. Far from it.

    Being very intelligent is no guarantee of sensible judgement.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Probably too big a stretch but is there any way the Tory party could be guilty of insider trading here?

    Private market sensitive comments given to direct participants whilst withheld from the public.
    Participants reported to act on information.
    Participants donate back to Tory party.
    Watch it. The BR police insisted I was libelling Kwarteng when I reported on the contemporaneous reports in the media...
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    On the excess deaths in the uk and worldwide i had a reply saying excess deaths by vaccination status are higher in the unvaccinated
    However the ons has ceased to provide any figures since May 2022 which ciincidentally was when the non covid excess deaths became elevated.
    These excess deaths are all over the world.
    So as the ons no longer publishes these figures the question is what is the ratio of these age adjusted deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated
    There seems to be no answer at present
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Phil said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Cambridge inter collegiate rivalry is the best rivalry. Could the stakes possibly be lower?
    It is as you say, rather like discussing the precedence between a louse and a flea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Putin's key supporters reacting badly tonight to the loss of Lyman:

    "Two powerful supporters of President Vladimir V. Putin turned on Russia’s military leadership on Saturday after it ordered a retreat from a key city in eastern Ukraine, a striking sign of dissent within the Russian elite that comes as the Kremlin tries to project an image of strength and unity."

    " “Send all these pieces of garbage barefoot with machine guns straight to the front,” Mr. Prigozhin [key ally] said in an apparent reference to Russia’s military leaders."

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/01/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#lyman-russia-retreat-putin
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145
    Phil said:

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    Great, we’re going to get a rampaging horde of compete ijits cutting down every tree for miles around now.
    Don't forget all the desperate individuals who are having their chimneys and fireplaces unblocked so they can chuck anything that will burn into the open hearth. Once all the flat pack furniture has gone it'll be straight off to the nearest park with a saw.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,148
    mickydroy said:

    I think some of you are being overly pessimistic on the chances of a Labour majority.

    The Lib Dem factor is something that is really interesting and not being spoken about. These crazy polls that have Labour 50% and above seem to imply a big chunk of the Tory protest vote of years gone by, that might have just voted Lib Dem rather than Labour, are not doing so.

    Another factor - tactical voting. This played a vital part in Blair’s 1997 landslide, and was used to great effect in bye-election victories for the Lib Dems and Labour in 2021+2022. Theoretically, it should be possible to organise tactical voting on a much larger scale than at any election before nowadays. There was a lot of this encouraged in 2019 (https://tactical.vote/faq/ and others) but the distance between the offerings of Labour and the Lib Dems on issues such as Brexit, and what people thought of Corbyn, was far further apart than will be the case in 2024.

    A wildcard might be if the Lib Dems come out in favour of full rejoin for the next election - but it doesn’t look like they’ll do that, we can’t completely rule it out though.

    Barring something like that, a huge tactical voting operation in 2024 could very much make up for the difficulties that Labour would otherwise have had at winning majorities without Scotland

    Hi PR. You new around here? If so, welcome and thanks for your thoughtful post. It encourages to write of the dilemma that I face here in Tewkesbury constituency.

    It is as you imagine solid Tory heartland with a long-established MP, Laurence Robertson who is a perfectly decent if somewhat inactive representative for his constituents. No problem for me who to vote for last time. I wasn't happy with Corbyn and Robertson is clearly going to win so I voted for the LD who came a distant but respectable second.

    It's more of a quandary now though with Labour touching 50% nationally. On that sort of polling, even the likes of Robertson are in danger, but the tactical voter needs to think carefully who to opt for. Would the LD or Labour Candidate be best placed to beat him?

    Not sure, and this kind of dilemma certainly makes predicting the outcome of the next GE kind of difficult.

    Any thoughts?
    I think that is a very valid point, its easy to engineer tactical voting at a byelection, but nationwide is going to take some organising, my advice for what it's worth, is to vote for who ever was in second place to the Tories at the last GE, there is a long way to go, and the Tory press haven't really turned their fire on Starmer yet, but make no mistake they will, then see what it does to the polls
    There are some seats where it is difficult to decide who is the best option to beat the incumbent Tory, but where it is vital that Labour and the Lib Dems decide early who is going to be the challenger, and make sure the electorate also know. The example that comes to mind is NE Somerset.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    By declaring Lyman Russian only yesterday, Putin has made things worse for himself as Russian nationalists are now saying "he lost part of Russia to the enemy".

    LOL.

  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,837
    edited October 1
    Phil said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Cambridge inter collegiate rivalry is the best rivalry. Could the stakes possibly be lower?
    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, said on Saturday that Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited October 1
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    By convention the monarch shouldn’t comment on political points, but is at liberty to talk about wider global issues and things where there is a general UK consensus.

    This decision tells us something very telling: that Truss sees climate change as a partisan political issue.
    I understand that convention, that’s okay but climate change is something he should be able to talk about . Clearly Truss will be trashing environmental rules and of course with her views on fracking Charles isn’t going to be very happy .
    The minute Charles steps into the political arena demands for a republic will grow

    The one thing the Queen understood completely and studiously and did not cross the line

    You may want him to portray a political message but that is not his role
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    ping said:

    Carnyx said:

    NEW: The King, a passionate environmental campaigner, has abandoned plans to attend next month’s Cop27 climate change summit after Liz Truss told him to stay away…

    He had intended to deliver a speech at the meeting of world leaders in Egypt.

    Truss, who is also unlikely to attend the Sharm el-Sheikh gathering, objected to the King’s plans during a personal audience at Buckingham Palace last month.


    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1576267291817234432

    [intake of breath] The Royalists will be on her case now, never mind the RSPCA and RSPB and NT.
    She has no protection. It’s going to be story after story from now on. From every angle.

    If she isn’t already, she’s going to be the most hated woman in Britain.

    I almost feel sorry for her…
    She will be baffled. "What is happening? I know these policies are right? Why are voters so stupid?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    pigeon said:

    Phil said:

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    Great, we’re going to get a rampaging horde of compete ijits cutting down every tree for miles around now.
    Don't forget all the desperate individuals who are having their chimneys and fireplaces unblocked so they can chuck anything that will burn into the open hearth. Once all the flat pack furniture has gone it'll be straight off to the nearest park with a saw.
    A&E is already full to bursting.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,148

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Good news. I already have one.
    Ours is on just now. This time last year it would have been the central heating.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493

    Off topic, but I think this Washington Post story ($) will interest many of you: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/09/30/warming-up-dundee-scotland/

    "Some cities have a past that is beautiful in the present. Old buildings and public spaces effortlessly become tourist attractions long after their reason for being has disappeared. Venice is like that. So is Paris.

    Other cities carry their past into the present as an unavoidable burden, sprucing up their edges with beautiful things, new and old, to distract attention. Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, is one of those. So is Baltimore, my home."

    David Brown recommends Dundee as a tourist destination, though in a way that might not attract every American tourist. (I found his descriptions of Dundee's past -- and present -- fascinating, but don't know how many other Americans would.)

    I have meandered around Dundee a few times. Beautiful city. I also saw something that suggested Aberdeen as a major tourist attraction. And if you've been there I get it. You come out of the bus / train station and across the road is mahoosive ships in the harbour. The buildings are solid and grand. There is a lot of history clearly on the streets around you. Its not pretty, but it is grand. Centre of Newcastle is the same.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, said on Saturday that Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield.

    It won't work, and it's the one thing that the West might be able to use successfully as a lever to force China and India to break with the Kremlin.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,760

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    I've got a large standing dead Ash pollard at the allotment which has been air drying in situ for a few years. I think it might be time for it to fall although I've probably got enough dried wood for this winter already.

    An axe is more fun for felling than a chainsaw but cutting up a large trunk with a bow-saw is a bit painful, so power tools do help a bit there.

    Foxy had better get ready for a few nasty injuries if there's a lot of novices waving chainsaws around.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485

    Off topic, but I think this Washington Post story ($) will interest many of you: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/09/30/warming-up-dundee-scotland/

    "Some cities have a past that is beautiful in the present. Old buildings and public spaces effortlessly become tourist attractions long after their reason for being has disappeared. Venice is like that. So is Paris.

    Other cities carry their past into the present as an unavoidable burden, sprucing up their edges with beautiful things, new and old, to distract attention. Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, is one of those. So is Baltimore, my home."

    David Brown recommends Dundee as a tourist destination, though in a way that might not attract every American tourist. (I found his descriptions of Dundee's past -- and present -- fascinating, but don't know how many other Americans would.)

    I have meandered around Dundee a few times. Beautiful city. I also saw something that suggested Aberdeen as a major tourist attraction. And if you've been there I get it. You come out of the bus / train station and across the road is mahoosive ships in the harbour. The buildings are solid and grand. There is a lot of history clearly on the streets around you. Its not pretty, but it is grand. Centre of Newcastle is the same.
    Old Aberdeen and the Brig o´Balgownie is pretty on the other hand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    Neither Kwasi nor Truss are thick. Far from it.

    Being very intelligent is no guarantee of sensible judgement.

    There is a difference between knowledge and wisdom.
    A mate pointed something out to be this morning. I said that apparently you can do PPE at Oxford and it is quite common to drop one of the three after the first year. This I learnt from good old PB. My mate - a mathematical chap - said ok, if Truss dropped economics after one year and the first year was split three ways between PPE, then basically she has actually done exactly one term of economics.

    That is econ 101 and little else.

    Saints preserve us.

  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,129

    Phil said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Cambridge inter collegiate rivalry is the best rivalry. Could the stakes possibly be lower?
    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.
    Why would you want to give people the impression you went to an upstart nouveau riche outfit like Trinity?

    Terribly déclassé darling.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225
    edited October 1

    Off topic, but I think this Washington Post story ($) will interest many of you: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/09/30/warming-up-dundee-scotland/

    "Some cities have a past that is beautiful in the present. Old buildings and public spaces effortlessly become tourist attractions long after their reason for being has disappeared. Venice is like that. So is Paris.

    Other cities carry their past into the present as an unavoidable burden, sprucing up their edges with beautiful things, new and old, to distract attention. Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, is one of those. So is Baltimore, my home."

    David Brown recommends Dundee as a tourist destination, though in a way that might not attract every American tourist. (I found his descriptions of Dundee's past -- and present -- fascinating, but don't know how many other Americans would.)

    I have meandered around Dundee a few times. Beautiful city. I also saw something that suggested Aberdeen as a major tourist attraction. And if you've been there I get it. You come out of the bus / train station and across the road is mahoosive ships in the harbour. The buildings are solid and grand. There is a lot of history clearly on the streets around you. Its not pretty, but it is grand. Centre of Newcastle is the same.
    Was Dundee used as the location for the Moscow scenes in Smiley's People?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    nico679 said:

    How dare Truss tell Charles not to attend COP27 .

    His position is hardly controversial and supported by the vast majority of the public . It’s a shame Charles couldn’t tell the witch to go fxck herself !

    He is a fat old creep who travels by private jet between his 57 palaces. Not supported by me.
    Truss isn't fat.

    Oh sorry, you meant Charles?
    She's also not a 'he', or old, or a creep. Other than that, 'good one'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    I've got a large standing dead Ash pollard at the allotment which has been air drying in situ for a few years. I think it might be time for it to fall although I've probably got enough dried wood for this winter already.

    An axe is more fun for felling than a chainsaw but cutting up a large trunk with a bow-saw is a bit painful, so power tools do help a bit there.

    Foxy had better get ready for a few nasty injuries if there's a lot of novices waving chainsaws around.
    Ash is a good burner my woodman tells me.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    And what difference will that make - except to make the party leaderships even more secure?

    Truss could be removed as soon as Parliament reconvenes and her budget abandoned if the majority of MPs wanted to do so. Unless you are advocating permanent coalition - or as it should rightly be called, permanent 'fuck the voters and what we promised and just do what the party leaderships want' - then getting rid of FPTP makes no difference at all.

    What we need is enough MPs with the balls to say they will not support their own party leadership. Something that becomes even less likely if you have a PR system where the MPs owe their existence to the party vote.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    Which will last precisely as long as it takes for Labour to win a majority. The only chance of PR for the Commons (or an alternative bargain, involving PR for an elected Senate with significant veto power over legislation) is a Hung Parliament. That will require the Tories to hose down the rich with cash, obtained by liquidating large chunks of the public sector, and somehow manage not to be shellacked at the ballot box.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    pigeon said:

    LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, said on Saturday that Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield.

    It won't work, and it's the one thing that the West might be able to use successfully as a lever to force China and India to break with the Kremlin.
    Yep. Putin is mad, but not yet so mad that he would risk China turning on him. Seeing as they are now the last customer of resort for his 'gas station with nukes' strategy.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 515


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 146

    Neither Kwasi nor Truss are thick. Far from it.

    Being very intelligent is no guarantee of sensible judgement.

    There is a difference between knowledge and wisdom.
    A mate pointed something out to be this morning. I said that apparently you can do PPE at Oxford and it is quite common to drop one of the three after the first year. This I learnt from good old PB. My mate - a mathematical chap - said ok, if Truss dropped economics after one year and the first year was split three ways between PPE, then basically she has actually done exactly one term of economics.

    That is econ 101 and little else.

    Saints preserve us.

    Yep, basic micro, basic macro, all out of date and most of it spent down the pub anyway.

  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,129

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    And what difference will that make - except to make the party leaderships even more secure?

    Truss could be removed as soon as Parliament reconvenes and her budget abandoned if the majority of MPs wanted to do so. Unless you are advocating permanent coalition - or as it should rightly be called, permanent 'fuck the voters and what we promised and just do what the party leaderships want' - then getting rid of FPTP makes no difference at all.

    What we need is enough MPs with the balls to say they will not support their own party leadership. Something that becomes even less likely if you have a PR system where the MPs owe their existence to the party vote.
    Not all PR systems entrench party control over MPs.

    The problem is that the party power structures have a huge vested interest in making sure that any variant of PR we do get does entrench party interests. But it’s not inevitable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Keir is no Blair.

    But Truss is no Major, whose worst crime was thought to be ineffectiveness against wider sleazeballs, Brexity bastards, and Tory boys.

    The bastards have taken over the Tories.
    The public will vote tactically to eviscerate them.

    Next GE is going to be like 1997 with Smith instead of Blair but Redwood instead of Major.

    And Truss is doubling down. There is no part of the Tory coalition that she is not passing off.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,837

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    And what difference will that make - except to make the party leaderships even more secure?

    Truss could be removed as soon as Parliament reconvenes and her budget abandoned if the majority of MPs wanted to do so. Unless you are advocating permanent coalition - or as it should rightly be called, permanent 'fuck the voters and what we promised and just do what the party leaderships want' - then getting rid of FPTP makes no difference at all.

    What we need is enough MPs with the balls to say they will not support their own party leadership. Something that becomes even less likely if you have a PR system where the MPs owe their existence to the party vote.
    There are quite a few Tory MPs who have only been there for three years and have no realistic prospect of re-election. It's just possible they could make a name for themselves by bailing out now in the national interest rather than just marching slowly towards the scene of destruction.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962


    There are some seats where it is difficult to decide who is the best option to beat the incumbent Tory, but where it is vital that Labour and the Lib Dems decide early who is going to be the challenger, and make sure the electorate also know. The example that comes to mind is NE Somerset.

    In 1997 there were a few seats which Labour won from third - Bristol West and Falmouth & Camborne being two examples - both went LD in 2005, ironically the LDs won Falmouth & Camborne from third place in that election.

    Folkestone & Hythe was an example of where the Conservatives survived because the third, rather then second party made progress.

    86 of the 100 seats where Labour is the closest challenger are held by the Conservatives - Corby at no.101 requires roughly an 8.5% swing.

    26 of the top 30 LD target seats are held by the Conservatives - at no,31 is Mole Valley where the party needs a 10.5% swing to take the seat.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,148

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    I've got a large standing dead Ash pollard at the allotment which has been air drying in situ for a few years. I think it might be time for it to fall although I've probably got enough dried wood for this winter already.

    An axe is more fun for felling than a chainsaw but cutting up a large trunk with a bow-saw is a bit painful, so power tools do help a bit there.

    Foxy had better get ready for a few nasty injuries if there's a lot of novices waving chainsaws around.
    A few years ago I acquired a chainsaw. After using it once, I got rid of it, for my own safety and the safety of anyone around me. They should only be sold to someone with a current certificate of competence.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,129
    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    It's going to be busy in A&E.
  • pingping Posts: 3,177
    Thoughts on Brazil?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Foxy said:

    Keir is no Blair.

    But Truss is no Major, whose worst crime was thought to be ineffectiveness against wider sleazeballs, Brexity bastards, and Tory boys.

    The bastards have taken over the Tories.
    The public will vote tactically to eviscerate them.

    Next GE is going to be like 1997 with Smith instead of Blair but Redwood instead of Major.

    And Truss is doubling down. There is no part of the Tory coalition that she is not passing off.
    And yet this is what the ageing membership wanted.

    First the Gods make mad etc etc...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,148

    Off topic, but I think this Washington Post story ($) will interest many of you: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/09/30/warming-up-dundee-scotland/

    "Some cities have a past that is beautiful in the present. Old buildings and public spaces effortlessly become tourist attractions long after their reason for being has disappeared. Venice is like that. So is Paris.

    Other cities carry their past into the present as an unavoidable burden, sprucing up their edges with beautiful things, new and old, to distract attention. Dundee, on the east coast of Scotland, is one of those. So is Baltimore, my home."

    David Brown recommends Dundee as a tourist destination, though in a way that might not attract every American tourist. (I found his descriptions of Dundee's past -- and present -- fascinating, but don't know how many other Americans would.)

    I have meandered around Dundee a few times. Beautiful city. I also saw something that suggested Aberdeen as a major tourist attraction. And if you've been there I get it. You come out of the bus / train station and across the road is mahoosive ships in the harbour. The buildings are solid and grand. There is a lot of history clearly on the streets around you. Its not pretty, but it is grand. Centre of Newcastle is the same.
    Was Dundee used as the location for the Moscow scenes in Smiley's People?
    Only because they needed a smiley person and spotted DavidL.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    I think they are going for single figures...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,382
    Phil said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Cambridge inter collegiate rivalry is the best rivalry. Could the stakes possibly be lower?
    Nah, the lower stakes are at Durham....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited October 1

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    Phil said:

    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
    Mrs P. got her degree and masters at Oxford Brookes.

    She always tells me it's just like another Oxford college and who am I to argue?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,837
    Phil said:

    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
    Architecture is a fad - it won't last. This is, after all, the university that resisted an English faculty on the grounds that reading poetry and novels was a pastime not an education. In fairness, though, it does have a school of fine art that not many people know about.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Sandpit said:


    So, back online after a week on a paradise
    island with the phone and laptop switched off! First plane ride since before the pandemic.

    I know that there was a hurricane in Florida, because airport lounges still have CNN on, and I know that Liverpool and Brighton shared six goals a couple of hours ago, because Emirates Airline now has a live sports TV channel!

    I’ll take a guess that there’s still a war in Ukraine, and that those who didn’t like tax cuts a week ago, still aren’t particular fans of the UK government? Oh, and Dubai finally dropped their indoors mask requirement, just in time for tourist season.

    Now to see if there’s anything important in the 300 emails, and catch up on what’s happened in the world for the past week.

    Brace yourself for the 30% plus Labour leads.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    Big country, quite warm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Phil said:

    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
    Architecture is a fad - it won't last. This is, after all, the university that resisted an English faculty on the grounds that reading poetry and novels was a pastime not an education. In fairness, though, it does have a school of fine art that not many people know about.
    It had one of the best History faculties in the country for years until Gove destroyed it with his batshit insane policies on student caps.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Neither Kwasi nor Truss are thick. Far from it.

    Being very intelligent is no guarantee of sensible judgement.

    There is a difference between knowledge and wisdom.
    The phrase is intellectual but stupid. There are lots of them of every political hue and many gather on Twitter.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,837

    Phil said:

    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
    Mrs P. got her degree and masters at Oxford Brookes.

    She always tells me it's just like another Oxford college and who am I to argue?
    But which?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493

    I’ve struck a bet with a friend.

    Tories to poll 15% or lower with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide Westminster poll before the locals.

    It won't take that long:
    1. Conference will be a catastrofuck. TK unable to do human things like speak or display empathy
    2. Another market crisis certain. Can kicked down road, not removed.
    3. The "lets slash public services" plan is to come

    Never mind the egregious damage to the party, this is doing similarly fatal damage to our electoral system. There is no mandate for this. None. Yet they parade "we have a majority of 80" at the press. Expect a push to replace FPTP.
    It will be v interesting to see how much liquidity BoE swamps the markets with during Truss's Wednesday speech.

    In no way do I excuse the idiotic behaviour of Kwarteng and Truss but tonight analysts are saying the Eurozone is at risk on the same scale as the crisis they suffered a decade ago amid surging inflation and aggressive interest rates worldwide

    Analysts say the eurozone is at risk from the same chaos that struck the UK

    In view of everything happening it is hardly surprising that the UK will not be the only country facing a crises of confidence in its government but Kwarteng and Truss are in a league of their own

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/01/eurozone-risk-financial-meltdown-market-chaos-spreads/
    I never thought much of Kwarteng, but Truss has the makings of a truly great PM, and I don't think we realise how lucky we are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    It's a good film. Worth watching.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,760

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    I've got a large standing dead Ash pollard at the allotment which has been air drying in situ for a few years. I think it might be time for it to fall although I've probably got enough dried wood for this winter already.

    An axe is more fun for felling than a chainsaw but cutting up a large trunk with a bow-saw is a bit painful, so power tools do help a bit there.

    Foxy had better get ready for a few nasty injuries if there's a lot of novices waving chainsaws around.
    Ash is a good burner my woodman tells me.
    Yes, it is, it is excellent. Hawthorn is also surprisingly good although getting nicely shaped logs is difficult, even from a large hedge.

    I've got quite a lot of birch which is a bit too fast burning really but easily obtained. Oak needs to be dried a bit longer and takes a bit longer to light - it isn't as good as you'd think.

    Softwoods are all terrible unless you are using someone else's stove.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    Phil said:

    pm215 said:


    I've always thought people at Trinity Hall were inclined to mumble the second word whilst unduly emphasising the first. At the other end of the academic scale you tend to hear the word Brookes uttered sotto voce more often than not.

    Friend of mine did architecture at Brookes -- the department liked to call itself "the Oxford School of Architecture" apparently...
    Brookes is very good indeed for some subjects. Not qualified to opine on architecture, but since Oxford University doesn’t do architecture I guess the Brookes dept gets to call themselves whatever they like!
    Mrs P. got her degree and masters at Oxford Brookes.

    She always tells me it's just like another Oxford college and who am I to argue?
    But which?
    just like any other - my bad
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225

    I don’t grudge Kwasi a bit of champagne after delivering a “budget”.

    I do mind him sharing his plans with hedge fund mates.

    Get rid with extreme prejudice.

    Clement Attlee had zero hesitation in sacking his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hugh Dalton, for leaking budget secrets to a journalist.

    In that instance, the CoE made a unguarded, off-hand remark.

    As opposed to inviting insiders to a champagne social, after giving them all goody bags courtesy of the Treasury.
    I thought he was supposed to have briefed them before the budget was announced rather than after? That would be an issue for me indeed. But if it is afterwards then what is he being attacked for (apart from delivering the worst budget in British political history that is)?
    Yeah, it's bad optics rather than bad practice.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,288
    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    It's nuts.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,778

    "sales of woodburning stoves soared by 40 per cent. Now, it has emerged that chainsaws have seen a surge in demand – to cut wood for the stoves."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11268825/Chainsaw-sales-soar-Brits-buy-35-000-woodburners-three-months.html

    Edit: Of course if you cut wood now it is no good for this season, unless you are cutting already dead trees and branches. Has to be seasoned first.

    I've got a large standing dead Ash pollard at the allotment which has been air drying in situ for a few years. I think it might be time for it to fall although I've probably got enough dried wood for this winter already.

    An axe is more fun for felling than a chainsaw but cutting up a large trunk with a bow-saw is a bit painful, so power tools do help a bit there.

    Foxy had better get ready for a few nasty injuries if there's a lot of novices waving chainsaws around.
    Ash is a good burner my woodman tells me.
    You can in fact burn it green, if necessary
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    It's nuts.
    Really? That's Amazon news.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,109
    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    Nuts are a bitch to open.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    ping said:

    Thoughts on Brazil?

    I don't think any Non European side will make the semi-finals. The World Cup will go to a European side, probably France, but maybe Spain at last.
This discussion has been closed.