Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.
'Not a bad poll I suppose.'
Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders. So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.
The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir. One suspects that the Russians could settle for banking gains in half of each oblast if it leaves them with the whole Sea of Azov and the land bridge to Crimea at the end of it. A frozen conflict might not mean that Russia gets to have another go at outright conquest later - Ukraine's friends will probably use a cessation of hostilities to stuff it full of the warplanes and other advanced heavy armaments that they have thus far hesitated to provide, which would make the country simply too strong to dare assault again - but it would at least keep Ukraine out of NATO.
From this POV, the most critical front isn't in the Donbas - where Ukraine is still making hard-fought progress, but where the Russian forces always have the option in extremis of falling back to the heavy fortifications along the pre-February ceasefire line - but Kherson. Should the Ukrainians succeed in recapturing the city - and the remainder of the Russian-held territory to the West of the Dnieper - then AIUI they can cut off the main water supply to Crimea and threaten to march land forces into the peninsula itself. I'm obviously no strategist, but one would've thought that Putin's generals would be sweating more over that prospect than losing chunks of Luhansk. Hence the fact that they're reported to have sent many of their best units there, and have thus far not suffered the kind of collapse that we've seen in eastern Kharkiv and around Lyman.
All of this is, of course, rendered moot should it become apparent that the whole Russian invasion is going to fail or is at serious risk of doing so. That's the sort of situation in which more desperate behaviour (deployment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons) might become more likely.
When is that Privileges Committee report on Johnson due? I would have thought Truss would want to rule Johnson out as a potential successor to secure her position.
I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position
'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness
It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Worth emphasising we have never seen a weekly shift in polling like this. Not Black Wednesday; not Brown cancelling the election; not May and "nothing has changed". None of them come close to this.
Opinium remove don't knows and reweight - which means they usually show smaller Lab leads. Highest ever under that methodology has been 8pts but usually 2-4pts.
This is all people switching to Labour.
Apparently Con-Lab switcher percentage has gone from 12% to 23% in a week.
Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?
And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
Excellent. Congratulations, and my entire respect, to him and his colleagues on the crew, and the support team on shore.
Thank you
He has progressed very well and is training to helm the Inshore and has been to Poole and taken the course on the AWB Shannon class and is crewing on it also
The rescues and stories make your hair stand on end and his fishing family in Lossiemouth are so proud of him carrying on the family connection with the sea
Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders. So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.
The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.
'Not a bad poll I suppose.'
Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?
And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
Excellent. Congratulations, and my entire respect, to him and his colleagues on the crew, and the support team on shore.
Thank you
He has progressed very well and is training to helm the Inshore and has been to Poole and taken the course on the AWB Shannon class and is crewing on it also
The rescues and stories make your hair stand on end and his fishing family in Lossiemouth are so proud of him carrying on the family connection with the sea
Brilliant. I bet he's modest about it too.
He really is as is all of them
If you want to compare just look at these lads and lasses putting their lives at risk entirely free to save peoples lives at sea
I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position
'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness
It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers 🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Wow. In light of Lyman defeat, Russian z-journalist and blogger Anastasiya Kashevarova goes to telegram to post a long rant asking the right questions because all the other military bloggers have "pu*sied out". This is being picked up by other channels.
We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.
'Not a bad poll I suppose.'
Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
From Opinium, this is about what I would expect and is pretty consistent with most of the other pollsters. (Kantar is the reaal odd one out and I'm not sure what happened there.) It has a different methodology from the others and this seems to give a better result for the Tories but it nevertheless confirms the dire trend for the Governing Party.
What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.
If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.
Prime minister: Sunak Chancellor: Gove Foreign: Tugendhat Defence: Wallace
You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position
'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness
It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
Yeah but you won't though, why lie?
Again you attack my integrity and even suggest I lie
Just grow up
You are the one who was banned for abusing me and you were the one who want me banned permanently as you did @Casino_Royale
The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.
If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .
Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
How? Unless they said 51% of Tory MPs backing you in the final round makes you elected with no further membership vote
Public opinion would never stand for another leadership election, and certainly not if the only reason for having it is to allow a discredited and dishonest PM to have a second shot.
That's why the 1922 would have to change the rules. But I cannot see that happening either, and its another reason why Truss is going nowhere - removing her will not restore their reputation for competence.
They need to change course, rein her in, but they aren't going to oust someone who's only been there a month or a few months.
I reckon even a Labour majority of 2 would see Graham Brady lose his seat so the 1922 might act.
We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.
I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders. So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.
The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir. One suspects that the Russians could settle for banking gains in half of each oblast if it leaves them with the whole Sea of Azov and the land bridge to Crimea at the end of it. A frozen conflict might not mean that Russia gets to have another go at outright conquest later - Ukraine's friends will probably use a cessation of hostilities to stuff it full of the warplanes and other advanced heavy armaments that they have thus far hesitated to provide, which would make the country simply too strong to dare assault again - but it would at least keep Ukraine out of NATO.
From this POV, the most critical front isn't in the Donbas - where Ukraine is still making hard-fought progress, but where the Russian forces always have the option in extremis of falling back to the heavy fortifications along the pre-February ceasefire line - but Kherson. Should the Ukrainians succeed in recapturing the city - and the remainder of the Russian-held territory to the West of the Dnieper - then AIUI they can cut off the main water supply to Crimea and threaten to march land forces into the peninsula itself. I'm obviously no strategist, but one would've thought that Putin's generals would be sweating more over that prospect than losing chunks of Luhansk. Hence the fact that they're reported to have sent many of their best units there, and have thus far not suffered the kind of collapse that we've seen in eastern Kharkiv and around Lyman.
All of this is, of course, rendered moot should it become apparent that the whole Russian invasion is going to fail or is at serious risk of doing so. That's the sort of situation in which more desperate behaviour (deployment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons) might become more likely.
Increasingly it looks to me that the Ukranians were just doing a diversion in Kherson, with enough pinning attacks to convince. Keep the main Russian forces there, stretch their logistics as much as possible and disrupt movements by cutting the bridges.
Then attack in the Donbas, breaking the threat of encirclement, and removing the threat from Belogrod. Everything comes from Rostov shortly.
Wow and she then moans about migrants bringing family with them . I hate to break it to Suella but that’s more likely to happen with those from outside the EU . She really is a hateful woman .
While Biden is quite rightly sending federal aid to Florida, these kind of stories are going to become more common. Because frankly a good deal of the development there is nuts. And eventually there will come a time when everyone else will tire of bailing them out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/ … Ian has brought some new attention to the story I wrote for Politico Magazine after my visit to Cape Coral in 2017, “The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist.” The subtitle warned: “One big storm could wipe it off the map.” The gist was that Cape Coral was an unsustainable paradise, and that it also represented the future of the Florida dream in an age of rising seas and extreme weather, “the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state.” I wrote that it was fair to ask “what the hell 20 million Americans are doing in a flood-prone, storm-battered peninsula that was once the nation’s last unpopulated frontier,” because the bill for decades of Florida lies, greed, and myopia would eventually come due.
Now it has, with Ian expected to displace Irma as Florida’s costliest storm…
… But it’s important to remember that Cape Coral’s hucksters and suckers were ultimately right. Cape Coral now has 200,000 residents. It’s got no colleges, tourist attractions, or major industries—its top employers are its government, hospital, and supermarkets—but not only is it still one of America’s fastest-growing cities, it’s projected to remain in the top five for decades to come. It’s a triumph of Lies That Came True, which was the title of a 1983 memoir by a Cape Coral pioneer, and could be the state motto...
If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.
Prime minister: Sunak Chancellor: Gove Foreign: Tugendhat Defence: Wallace
You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
Amazing nobody has mentioned May. The most experienced minister in the Commons after Gove.
Somewhat less amazing nobody has mentioned Johnson.
For various reasons - frankly the mind boggles - you would have to be completely bonkers to have these sorts of interactions with market participants. To say this is obvious is like saying oysters have shells.
We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
I wonder about Tourettes. It is very hard to explain otherwise.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
While Biden is quite rightly sending federal aid to Florida, these kind of stories are going to become more common. Because frankly a good deal of the development there is nuts. And eventually there will come a time when everyone else will tire of bailing them out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/ … Ian has brought some new attention to the story I wrote for Politico Magazine after my visit to Cape Coral in 2017, “The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist.” The subtitle warned: “One big storm could wipe it off the map.” The gist was that Cape Coral was an unsustainable paradise, and that it also represented the future of the Florida dream in an age of rising seas and extreme weather, “the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state.” I wrote that it was fair to ask “what the hell 20 million Americans are doing in a flood-prone, storm-battered peninsula that was once the nation’s last unpopulated frontier,” because the bill for decades of Florida lies, greed, and myopia would eventually come due.
Now it has, with Ian expected to displace Irma as Florida’s costliest storm…
… But it’s important to remember that Cape Coral’s hucksters and suckers were ultimately right. Cape Coral now has 200,000 residents. It’s got no colleges, tourist attractions, or major industries—its top employers are its government, hospital, and supermarkets—but not only is it still one of America’s fastest-growing cities, it’s projected to remain in the top five for decades to come. It’s a triumph of Lies That Came True, which was the title of a 1983 memoir by a Cape Coral pioneer, and could be the state motto...
Federal Disaster Insurance, especially flood insurnace, was one of the most totally batshit things I've ever heard of in terms of economics. Subsidising people to build and own homes in disaster prone areas. It is just bonkers
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
I think it’s a bit late for them to rely on the Germans to build them another army training centre.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
I think it’s a bit late for them to rely on the Germans to build them another army training centre.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
As many of us on PB predicted:
She.Is.A.Disaster.
Gone by summer.
My personal view is it will Starmer vs Boris in 2024 as I have said before.
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
For various reasons - frankly the mind boggles - you would have to be completely bonkers to have these sorts of interactions with market participants. To say this is obvious is like saying oysters have shells.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
As many of us on PB predicted:
She.Is.A.Disaster.
Gone by summer.
My personal view is it will Starmer vs Boris in 2024 as I have said before.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
It seems clear to me that if they don't sack her, then it is an extinction level problem for the conservatives. And I have a feeling they won't, they will just slide away in to irrelevance and oblivion.
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
He doesn't have enough badly trained and equipped conscripts.
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.
I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
His regime is falling apart in recriminations and failure as the lies becoming too obvious to hide any longer.
We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
Rory Stewart (who was at school with him) said he has always been like that... a bit weird, but would daydream and then laugh to himself about what he was thinking about.
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
It seems clear to me that if they don't sack her, then it is an extinction level problem for the conservatives. And I have a feeling they won't, they will just slide away in to irrelevance and oblivion.
But unfortunately the country’s economy and public services will be trashed in the process.
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
That was predicated on the PM saying what the membership wanted to hear. Rather than actually believing it and acting on it. I always thought it was a dodgy conclusion. Frankly. None of this is where the electorate is at. That's why the electorate has switched. It's that simple.
🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers 🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms
The reason we aren't currently growing many tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers is because energy prices have ensured most growers are either minimising what they are growing or taking the winter off..
Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
Absolutely no surprise there
Really! You don't surprise easiiy.
A very good interview with Glenda Jackson on 'This cultural life'. How she produced that Daily Mail lobby fodder of a child is an absolute mystery.
A talented interesting and compassionate woman who loathed Thathcher.
Wow. In light of Lyman defeat, Russian z-journalist and blogger Anastasiya Kashevarova goes to telegram to post a long rant asking the right questions because all the other military bloggers have "pu*sied out". This is being picked up by other channels.
Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.
It's just the methodology is more Tory friendly as excludes don't knows - under the bonnet it's as bad if not worse as the others in terms of Tory-Labour switchers.
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
Personally I too thought it was possible, but not on a potential extinction scale.
Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
Steiner will fix it.
Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.
I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
His regime is falling apart in recriminations and failure as the lies becoming too obvious to hide any longer.
Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?
🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers 🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms
The Defra thing is genuine open mouth moment. These people have no anchor in the real world what so ever.
As Sky's Ed Conway has written in a big op-ed piece in S Times only a couple of weeks ago: UK glass house veg and salad growing is packing up shop because of the PRICE OF ENERGY.
Nothing they see in Holland will make the slightest difference.
Source close to the Chancellor - “Any suggestion attendees had access to privileged information is total nonsense... The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.” https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1576260578946912257
If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.
Prime minister: Sunak Chancellor: Gove Foreign: Tugendhat Defence: Wallace
You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
Amazing nobody has mentioned May. The most experienced minister in the Commons after Gove.
.
As I said yesterday, her proven ability to defy the opinion polls is surely what the Tories need right now?
Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?
The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.
We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
As you know already, because I’m a broken record on it, I’m sceptical the markets reacted on the £45B of unfunded tax cuts alone when quarter of a trillion of hand out was in the borrowing proposal alongside it, but I am now also sceptical the run on the Tory polling has come from nowhere attributed solely to the one budget speech. To me, in both those instances, it’s like something was already out there, lurking, silently, and waiting - it’s mind was “I’m nearly convinced, just need to hear a little bit more to be sure.” And hearing a little bit more becoming sure more acted as a trigger for something built up over longer period.
I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.
Are they sensitive to the new variants?
I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?
My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
Rory Stewart (who was at school with him) said he has always been like that... a bit weird, but would daydream and then laugh to himself about what he was thinking about.
Aside - the rest is politics is a great listen.
That’s really not a problem (though it might be a political disadvantage). The combination of arrogance and lack of judgment is rather more serious.
Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?
I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.
Are they sensitive to the new variants?
I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?
My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
As someone who has never knowingly had covid, I find this interesting. I had a sore throat in Feb, tested negative and left it at that. If I’d tested again who knows.
I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.
Are they sensitive to the new variants?
I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?
My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.
October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.
Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.
Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
"Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?
In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄
December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
It was a simple pisstake of you getting the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month. That month being October, so enough of the misdirection about Christmas, please.
And yes, I love Halloween and Christmas. Our kids used to compete to build grottos on Christmas morning and I very much enjoyed the childish nonsense that it was.
Eh? Where did I say anything negative or get the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month? I didn't, it should be something in focus all year around. In case you forgot, I was in favour of BLM, taking the knee and other things so I have absolutely no objection to Black History Month.
The only thing I said I thought was odd, was the choice of October, since October is already 'taken'. For me at least and as others have said in America especially, October is already heavily associated with Halloween and all things dark/gothic/creepy/haunted etc. So a different month would make much more sense to me.
Looking into it, it seems in America and Canada its in February and not October, and its just a British thing that its in October here. Seems odd.
Anyway, just watched Hocus Pocus 2, a sequel to 1993's Hocus Pocus that's just been released yesterday on Disney+. It was highly enjoyable, I would recommend it to anyone interested in that kind of thing, the kids have both decided they want to dress as two of the Sanderson Sisters now for Halloween.
Comments
From this POV, the most critical front isn't in the Donbas - where Ukraine is still making hard-fought progress, but where the Russian forces always have the option in extremis of falling back to the heavy fortifications along the pre-February ceasefire line - but Kherson. Should the Ukrainians succeed in recapturing the city - and the remainder of the Russian-held territory to the West of the Dnieper - then AIUI they can cut off the main water supply to Crimea and threaten to march land forces into the peninsula itself. I'm obviously no strategist, but one would've thought that Putin's generals would be sweating more over that prospect than losing chunks of Luhansk. Hence the fact that they're reported to have sent many of their best units there, and have thus far not suffered the kind of collapse that we've seen in eastern Kharkiv and around Lyman.
All of this is, of course, rendered moot should it become apparent that the whole Russian invasion is going to fail or is at serious risk of doing so. That's the sort of situation in which more desperate behaviour (deployment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons) might become more likely.
When is that Privileges Committee report on Johnson due? I would have thought Truss would want to rule Johnson out as a potential successor to secure her position.
None at all.
So. No ethical imperative for Tory MP's to support it.
'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness
It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/01/keir-starmer-liz-truss-kwasi-kwarteng-have-driven-economy-cliff/
If you want to compare just look at these lads and lasses putting their lives at risk entirely free to save peoples lives at sea
and
Truss
Like, say, an Attorney General who didn't know the law.
🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers
🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive
✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms
Headline via @thejonnyreilly
https://bit.ly/3UP3ZAh
"That was Salad Revolution playing what I personally feel is an under-rated B-side, 'Learning From The Dutch'. Coming up, The Fall." https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1576304397964914690/photo/1
And her own Party is plotting.
Unprecedented.
https://t.me/akashevarova/5532 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576306261187907585/photo/1
What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.
Prime minister: Sunak
Chancellor: Gove
Foreign: Tugendhat
Defence: Wallace
You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
Just grow up
You are the one who was banned for abusing me and you were the one who want me banned permanently as you did @Casino_Royale
You are not a pleasant or nice person sadly
I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
Then attack in the Donbas, breaking the threat of encirclement, and removing the threat from Belogrod. Everything comes from Rostov shortly.
And eventually there will come a time when everyone else will tire of bailing them out.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/
… Ian has brought some new attention to the story I wrote for Politico Magazine after my visit to Cape Coral in 2017, “The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist.” The subtitle warned: “One big storm could wipe it off the map.” The gist was that Cape Coral was an unsustainable paradise, and that it also represented the future of the Florida dream in an age of rising seas and extreme weather, “the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state.” I wrote that it was fair to ask “what the hell 20 million Americans are doing in a flood-prone, storm-battered peninsula that was once the nation’s last unpopulated frontier,” because the bill for decades of Florida lies, greed, and myopia would eventually come due.
Now it has, with Ian expected to displace Irma as Florida’s costliest storm…
… But it’s important to remember that Cape Coral’s hucksters and suckers were ultimately right. Cape Coral now has 200,000 residents. It’s got no colleges, tourist attractions, or major industries—its top employers are its government, hospital, and supermarkets—but not only is it still one of America’s fastest-growing cities, it’s projected to remain in the top five for decades to come. It’s a triumph of Lies That Came True, which was the title of a 1983 memoir by a Cape Coral pioneer, and could be the state motto...
Somewhat less amazing nobody has mentioned Johnson.
I’m pretty sure they were yesterday, too.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa66c306-419f-11ed-bf78-197f09550dd1?shareToken=5f1c591a2fb690d27ab0ea3291780b2f
There is a case to be made for the Chancellor resigning in disgrace, or being sacked
The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.
It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.
Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.
Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.
Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.
Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.
The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.
The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.
Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
She.Is.A.Disaster.
Gone by summer.
My personal view is it will Starmer vs Boris in 2024 as I have said before.
So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
The next few weeks when the HOC returns
This cannot go on
I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.
Are they sensitive to the new variants?
I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?
Aside - the rest is politics is a great listen.
Rather than actually believing it and acting on it.
I always thought it was a dodgy conclusion.
Frankly. None of this is where the electorate is at. That's why the electorate has switched. It's that simple.
She is gone by xmas imho.
Her conference speech will be the final nail for tory MPs who will try now and save their skins from the flood.
A very good interview with Glenda Jackson on 'This cultural life'. How she produced that Daily Mail lobby fodder of a child is an absolute mystery.
A talented interesting and compassionate woman who loathed Thathcher.
Or are they reserved only for local radio?
https://twitter.com/lordrickettsp/status/1576300178604113920
As Sky's Ed Conway has written in a big op-ed piece in S Times only a couple of weeks ago: UK glass house veg and salad growing is packing up shop because of the PRICE OF ENERGY.
Nothing they see in Holland will make the slightest difference.
FFS.
Source close to the Chancellor - “Any suggestion attendees had access to privileged information is total nonsense... The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.” https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1576260578946912257
Yes it's happened before. She was fighting for her Premiership within three weeks of taking Office.
I wonder that this didn’t come out before.
They picked up my case in August no problem.
Jeez.
Has there ever been a more cack handed, tin eared, comms disaster PM?
The combination of arrogance and lack of judgment is rather more serious.
CPC22 combo of Cabinet ministers keen to make a splash, no civil servants, the week after market turmoil, cd be interesting
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1576315630625910784
The only thing I said I thought was odd, was the choice of October, since October is already 'taken'. For me at least and as others have said in America especially, October is already heavily associated with Halloween and all things dark/gothic/creepy/haunted etc. So a different month would make much more sense to me.
Looking into it, it seems in America and Canada its in February and not October, and its just a British thing that its in October here. Seems odd.
Anyway, just watched Hocus Pocus 2, a sequel to 1993's Hocus Pocus that's just been released yesterday on Disney+. It was highly enjoyable, I would recommend it to anyone interested in that kind of thing, the kids have both decided they want to dress as two of the Sanderson Sisters now for Halloween.