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No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.

    'Not a bad poll I suppose.'

    Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
    I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Kwasi on the other hand.


    Do they never learn?
    Trinity Hall people are thick as mince.
    Oh, go shove a pineapple-topped pizza up your arse, ideally with the pineapple still intact.

    I will concede we probably do have a greater than average number of thickos, but that’s par for the course for a college which is so good at rowing.

    Yet more blue on blue.
    Just a little light conflict.
  • If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    Toms said:

    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.

    The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir. One suspects that the Russians could settle for banking gains in half of each oblast if it leaves them with the whole Sea of Azov and the land bridge to Crimea at the end of it. A frozen conflict might not mean that Russia gets to have another go at outright conquest later - Ukraine's friends will probably use a cessation of hostilities to stuff it full of the warplanes and other advanced heavy armaments that they have thus far hesitated to provide, which would make the country simply too strong to dare assault again - but it would at least keep Ukraine out of NATO.

    From this POV, the most critical front isn't in the Donbas - where Ukraine is still making hard-fought progress, but where the Russian forces always have the option in extremis of falling back to the heavy fortifications along the pre-February ceasefire line - but Kherson. Should the Ukrainians succeed in recapturing the city - and the remainder of the Russian-held territory to the West of the Dnieper - then AIUI they can cut off the main water supply to Crimea and threaten to march land forces into the peninsula itself. I'm obviously no strategist, but one would've thought that Putin's generals would be sweating more over that prospect than losing chunks of Luhansk. Hence the fact that they're reported to have sent many of their best units there, and have thus far not suffered the kind of collapse that we've seen in eastern Kharkiv and around Lyman.

    All of this is, of course, rendered moot should it become apparent that the whole Russian invasion is going to fail or is at serious risk of doing so. That's the sort of situation in which more desperate behaviour (deployment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons) might become more likely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,621
    I cannot see Truss being prised out easily tbh.

    When is that Privileges Committee report on Johnson due? I would have thought Truss would want to rule Johnson out as a potential successor to secure her position.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Scott_xP said:

    The bottom line on Truss: from my conversations, her plans are detached from political/parliamentary reality. Options:

    1) Parliamentary war
    2) U-turn on tax/cuts
    3) New leader
    4) Election

    Default position is 1) but on some of it, it's already clear she doesn't have the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576303524081987585/photo/1

    There is no mandate from the electorate for this.
    None at all.
    So. No ethical imperative for Tory MP's to support it.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The bottom line on Truss: from my conversations, her plans are detached from political/parliamentary reality. Options:

    1) Parliamentary war
    2) U-turn on tax/cuts
    3) New leader
    4) Election

    Default position is 1) but on some of it, it's already clear she doesn't have the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576303524081987585/photo/1

    I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position

    'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness

    It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221
    Scott_xP said:

    Worth emphasising we have never seen a weekly shift in polling like this. Not Black Wednesday; not Brown cancelling the election; not May and "nothing has changed". None of them come close to this.

    Opinium remove don't knows and reweight - which means they usually show smaller Lab leads. Highest ever under that methodology has been 8pts but usually 2-4pts.

    This is all people switching to Labour.

    Apparently Con-Lab switcher percentage has gone from 12% to 23% in a week.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    Excellent. Congratulations, and my entire respect, to him and his colleagues on the crew, and the support team on shore.
    Thank you

    He has progressed very well and is training to helm the Inshore and has been to Poole and taken the course on the AWB Shannon class and is crewing on it also

    The rescues and stories make your hair stand on end and his fishing family in Lossiemouth are so proud of him carrying on the family connection with the sea
    Brilliant. I bet he's modest about it too.
  • pigeon said:

    Toms said:

    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.

    The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
    India, Pakistan AND China ;)
  • pingping Posts: 3,282

    Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.

    'Not a bad poll I suppose.'

    Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
    I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
    It’s the most Tory friendly methodology.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 24,621

    If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.

    Back into the frying pan, shirley?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Britain has 'too many' low-skilled migrants, interior minister says http://reut.rs/3SIx26o https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1576305981289598976/photo/1
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Home Secretary promises to crack down on channel migration, cut immigration and take on woke cops and return to old school policing
    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1576291902558597121?s=20&t=mPJkc9u07_h2OAApKHT1OQ

    Any mention of the RNLI being a subversive and hostile NGO?

    And will the cops be able to beat up anyone they like? Edit: or rather, don't like?
    On the RNLI, I understand our son is to feature on a rescue he was involved in on the 'saving lives at sea' series on BBC 2 sometime this month
    Excellent. Congratulations, and my entire respect, to him and his colleagues on the crew, and the support team on shore.
    Thank you

    He has progressed very well and is training to helm the Inshore and has been to Poole and taken the course on the AWB Shannon class and is crewing on it also

    The rescues and stories make your hair stand on end and his fishing family in Lossiemouth are so proud of him carrying on the family connection with the sea
    Brilliant. I bet he's modest about it too.
    He really is as is all of them

    If you want to compare just look at these lads and lasses putting their lives at risk entirely free to save peoples lives at sea

    and

    Truss
  • Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    Just need another Kantar poll now.
    That last Kantar 4% lead seems a bit suspect.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    Scott_xP said:

    Britain has 'too many' low-skilled migrants, interior minister says http://reut.rs/3SIx26o https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1576305981289598976/photo/1

    And quite a few indigenous people who are low skilled too.

    Like, say, an Attorney General who didn't know the law.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The bottom line on Truss: from my conversations, her plans are detached from political/parliamentary reality. Options:

    1) Parliamentary war
    2) U-turn on tax/cuts
    3) New leader
    4) Election

    Default position is 1) but on some of it, it's already clear she doesn't have the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576303524081987585/photo/1

    I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position

    'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness

    It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
    Yeah but you won't though, why lie?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    EXCL: No10's new salad offensive

    🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers
    🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive
    ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms

    Headline via @thejonnyreilly
    https://bit.ly/3UP3ZAh



    "That was Salad Revolution playing what I personally feel is an under-rated B-side, 'Learning From The Dutch'. Coming up, The Fall." https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1576304397964914690/photo/1




  • Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Day 26 of the Truss administration.
    And her own Party is plotting.
    Unprecedented.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,221

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour 46%
    Con 27%

    Opinium

    Just need another Kantar poll now.
    That last Kantar 4% lead seems a bit suspect.
    Most of that poll was done before the suicide budget went bang.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Wow. In light of Lyman defeat, Russian z-journalist and blogger Anastasiya Kashevarova goes to telegram to post a long rant asking the right questions because all the other military bloggers have "pu*sied out". This is being picked up by other channels.

    https://t.me/akashevarova/5532 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576306261187907585/photo/1
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    edited October 2022
    We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !
  • Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.

    'Not a bad poll I suppose.'

    Er, what would constitute a bad poll?
    I think we've been spoilt recently. 19% Labour lead with Tories on 27% feels a bit meh now.
    From Opinium, this is about what I would expect and is pretty consistent with most of the other pollsters. (Kantar is the reaal odd one out and I'm not sure what happened there.) It has a different methodology from the others and this seems to give a better result for the Tories but it nevertheless confirms the dire trend for the Governing Party.

    What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185

    What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.

    Truss is live on the BBC at 8:30 I think
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280

    If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.

    Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.

    Prime minister: Sunak
    Chancellor: Gove
    Foreign: Tugendhat
    Defence: Wallace

    You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The bottom line on Truss: from my conversations, her plans are detached from political/parliamentary reality. Options:

    1) Parliamentary war
    2) U-turn on tax/cuts
    3) New leader
    4) Election

    Default position is 1) but on some of it, it's already clear she doesn't have the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1576303524081987585/photo/1

    I posted this at 4.07pm today and if this is how I feel then the conservative party rejects Truss or they are going into a near extinction position

    'This is not the conservative party I have supported since I was 18 (60 years ago) and I am very near to ticking Starmers box, just as I did for Blair, though Starmer is no Blair but he understands fairness

    It will take the conservative party to come to its senses and appoint Sunak in place of the dreadful Truss and even worse Kwarteng for me to even consider supporting them'
    Yeah but you won't though, why lie?
    Again you attack my integrity and even suggest I lie

    Just grow up

    You are the one who was banned for abusing me and you were the one who want me banned permanently as you did @Casino_Royale

    You are not a pleasant or nice person sadly
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,460
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    The trouble with a coronation is how can you stop Johnson standing as an alternative to Sunak? So long as someone else stands it has to go to the members right? Of course there is no need to change party leader. If Truss loses the confidence of the house she will have to suggest someone who can form a government. The obvious answer is Sunak.

    If it’s a coronation I’d expect Sunak to beat Johnson if that was the final two . I’d expect Johnson would lose to most candidates .

    Why would Tory MPs remove Truss to put in a discredited pathological liar who could still be found to have misled parliament .
    Johnson would beat Sunak with the membership, he would have beaten Truss with them two. If he got just 20 Tory MPs to nominate him he could go a members ballot with Sunak if nobody else ran
    It won’t get to the membership so that’s why Johnson loses .
    It would only not go to the membership if no other candidate stood
    The 1922 can change the rules to make it a coronation . And there’s no way the public will accept a power vacuum for weeks as the Tories embark on another leadership contest .
    How? Unless they said 51% of Tory MPs backing you in the final round makes you elected with no further membership vote
    Public opinion would never stand for another leadership election, and certainly not if the only reason for having it is to allow a discredited and dishonest PM to have a second shot.
    That's why the 1922 would have to change the rules. But I cannot see that happening either, and its another reason why Truss is going nowhere - removing her will not restore their reputation for competence.

    They need to change course, rein her in, but they aren't going to oust someone who's only been there a month or a few months.
    I reckon even a Labour majority of 2 would see Graham Brady lose his seat so the 1922 might act.
  • nico679 said:

    We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !

    I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.

    I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744
    edited October 2022
    pigeon said:

    Toms said:

    Further to the sham annexations, I gather that the Russians are not precise as to their exact borders.
    So maybe the Ukraine might offer a compromise of one square metre in each region---just large enough to put up a statue, let's say, of Putin. After all, he's not very big.

    The Russian fallback plan may be to fight the Ukrainians to a draw and try to partition Ukraine along a ceasefire line, with territorial claims by both parties on either side of the line of control that will never be recognised by the other, as per India and Pakistan in Kashmir. One suspects that the Russians could settle for banking gains in half of each oblast if it leaves them with the whole Sea of Azov and the land bridge to Crimea at the end of it. A frozen conflict might not mean that Russia gets to have another go at outright conquest later - Ukraine's friends will probably use a cessation of hostilities to stuff it full of the warplanes and other advanced heavy armaments that they have thus far hesitated to provide, which would make the country simply too strong to dare assault again - but it would at least keep Ukraine out of NATO.

    From this POV, the most critical front isn't in the Donbas - where Ukraine is still making hard-fought progress, but where the Russian forces always have the option in extremis of falling back to the heavy fortifications along the pre-February ceasefire line - but Kherson. Should the Ukrainians succeed in recapturing the city - and the remainder of the Russian-held territory to the West of the Dnieper - then AIUI they can cut off the main water supply to Crimea and threaten to march land forces into the peninsula itself. I'm obviously no strategist, but one would've thought that Putin's generals would be sweating more over that prospect than losing chunks of Luhansk. Hence the fact that they're reported to have sent many of their best units there, and have thus far not suffered the kind of collapse that we've seen in eastern Kharkiv and around Lyman.

    All of this is, of course, rendered moot should it become apparent that the whole Russian invasion is going to fail or is at serious risk of doing so. That's the sort of situation in which more desperate behaviour (deployment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons) might become more likely.
    Increasingly it looks to me that the Ukranians were just doing a diversion in Kherson, with enough pinning attacks to convince. Keep the main Russian forces there, stretch their logistics as much as possible and disrupt movements by cutting the bridges.

    Then attack in the Donbas, breaking the threat of encirclement, and removing the threat from Belogrod. Everything comes from Rostov shortly.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Scott_xP said:

    Britain has 'too many' low-skilled migrants, interior minister says http://reut.rs/3SIx26o https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1576305981289598976/photo/1

    Wow and she then moans about migrants bringing family with them . I hate to break it to Suella but that’s more likely to happen with those from outside the EU . She really is a hateful woman .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    While Biden is quite rightly sending federal aid to Florida, these kind of stories are going to become more common. Because frankly a good deal of the development there is nuts.
    And eventually there will come a time when everyone else will tire of bailing them out.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/
    … Ian has brought some new attention to the story I wrote for Politico Magazine after my visit to Cape Coral in 2017, “The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist.” The subtitle warned: “One big storm could wipe it off the map.” The gist was that Cape Coral was an unsustainable paradise, and that it also represented the future of the Florida dream in an age of rising seas and extreme weather, “the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state.” I wrote that it was fair to ask “what the hell 20 million Americans are doing in a flood-prone, storm-battered peninsula that was once the nation’s last unpopulated frontier,” because the bill for decades of Florida lies, greed, and myopia would eventually come due.

    Now it has, with Ian expected to displace Irma as Florida’s costliest storm…

    … But it’s important to remember that Cape Coral’s hucksters and suckers were ultimately right. Cape Coral now has 200,000 residents. It’s got no colleges, tourist attractions, or major industries—its top employers are its government, hospital, and supermarkets—but not only is it still one of America’s fastest-growing cities, it’s projected to remain in the top five for decades to come. It’s a triumph of Lies That Came True, which was the title of a 1983 memoir by a Cape Coral pioneer, and could be the state motto...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.

    Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.

    Prime minister: Sunak
    Chancellor: Gove
    Foreign: Tugendhat
    Defence: Wallace

    You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
    Amazing nobody has mentioned May. The most experienced minister in the Commons after Gove.

    Somewhat less amazing nobody has mentioned Johnson.
  • Scott_xP said:

    What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.

    Truss is live on the BBC at 8:30 I think
    I think Sophy Ridge of Sky is on at 8.30 with the BBC following at 9.00am
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    For various reasons - frankly the mind boggles - you would have to be completely bonkers to have these sorts of interactions with market participants. To say this is obvious is like saying oysters have shells.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa66c306-419f-11ed-bf78-197f09550dd1?shareToken=5f1c591a2fb690d27ab0ea3291780b2f


    There is a case to be made for the Chancellor resigning in disgrace, or being sacked
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744
    edited October 2022

    nico679 said:

    We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !

    I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
    I wonder about Tourettes. It is very hard to explain otherwise.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2022
    Nigelb said:

    While Biden is quite rightly sending federal aid to Florida, these kind of stories are going to become more common. Because frankly a good deal of the development there is nuts.
    And eventually there will come a time when everyone else will tire of bailing them out.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/hurricane-ian-florida-real-estate/671629/
    … Ian has brought some new attention to the story I wrote for Politico Magazine after my visit to Cape Coral in 2017, “The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist.” The subtitle warned: “One big storm could wipe it off the map.” The gist was that Cape Coral was an unsustainable paradise, and that it also represented the future of the Florida dream in an age of rising seas and extreme weather, “the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state.” I wrote that it was fair to ask “what the hell 20 million Americans are doing in a flood-prone, storm-battered peninsula that was once the nation’s last unpopulated frontier,” because the bill for decades of Florida lies, greed, and myopia would eventually come due.

    Now it has, with Ian expected to displace Irma as Florida’s costliest storm…

    … But it’s important to remember that Cape Coral’s hucksters and suckers were ultimately right. Cape Coral now has 200,000 residents. It’s got no colleges, tourist attractions, or major industries—its top employers are its government, hospital, and supermarkets—but not only is it still one of America’s fastest-growing cities, it’s projected to remain in the top five for decades to come. It’s a triumph of Lies That Came True, which was the title of a 1983 memoir by a Cape Coral pioneer, and could be the state motto...

    Federal Disaster Insurance, especially flood insurnace, was one of the most totally batshit things I've ever heard of in terms of economics. Subsidising people to build and own homes in disaster prone areas. It is just bonkers
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    edited October 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    I think it’s a bit late for them to rely on the Germans to build them another army training centre.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    Absolutely no surprise there
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    I think it’s a bit late for them to rely on the Germans to build them another army training centre.
    They will be tanked for nothing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Day 26 of the Truss administration.
    And her own Party is plotting.
    Unprecedented.

    Not entirely.
    I’m pretty sure they were yesterday, too.
    They'd have to be comatose not to be plotting in the current circumstances.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    As many of us on PB predicted:

    She.Is.A.Disaster.

    Gone by summer.

    My personal view is it will Starmer vs Boris in 2024 as I have said before.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,060
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
    We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.

    So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,510
    Scott_xP said:

    For various reasons - frankly the mind boggles - you would have to be completely bonkers to have these sorts of interactions with market participants. To say this is obvious is like saying oysters have shells.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa66c306-419f-11ed-bf78-197f09550dd1?shareToken=5f1c591a2fb690d27ab0ea3291780b2f


    There is a case to be made for the Chancellor resigning in disgrace, or being sacked

    Would require chancellor to have morals, standards, probity etc.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    As many of us on PB predicted:

    She.Is.A.Disaster.

    Gone by summer.

    My personal view is it will Starmer vs Boris in 2024 as I have said before.
    I hope it is long before the summer

    The next few weeks when the HOC returns

    This cannot go on
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited October 2022
    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,319
    Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    It seems clear to me that if they don't sack her, then it is an extinction level problem for the conservatives. And I have a feeling they won't, they will just slide away in to irrelevance and oblivion.
  • Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    He doesn't have enough badly trained and equipped conscripts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.

    I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
    His regime is falling apart in recriminations and failure as the lies becoming too obvious to hide any longer.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,663

    nico679 said:

    We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !

    I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
    Rory Stewart (who was at school with him) said he has always been like that... a bit weird, but would daydream and then laugh to himself about what he was thinking about.

    Aside - the rest is politics is a great listen.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    darkage said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    It seems clear to me that if they don't sack her, then it is an extinction level problem for the conservatives. And I have a feeling they won't, they will just slide away in to irrelevance and oblivion.
    But unfortunately the country’s economy and public services will be trashed in the process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744

    Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
    We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.

    So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
    I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
    We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.

    So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
    That was predicated on the PM saying what the membership wanted to hear.
    Rather than actually believing it and acting on it.
    I always thought it was a dodgy conclusion.
    Frankly. None of this is where the electorate is at. That's why the electorate has switched. It's that simple.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Has this ever happened before? The new PM is fighting for her political life within a month of taking office?

    She is gone by xmas imho.

    Her conference speech will be the final nail for tory MPs who will try now and save their skins from the flood.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Things could get more serious for Liz Truss as her core voters absorb the impact of her fiscal plans https://trib.al/zXN8NoG
  • eekeek Posts: 22,060
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No10's new salad offensive

    🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers
    🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive
    ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms

    Headline via @thejonnyreilly
    https://bit.ly/3UP3ZAh



    "That was Salad Revolution playing what I personally feel is an under-rated B-side, 'Learning From The Dutch'. Coming up, The Fall." https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1576304397964914690/photo/1




    The reason we aren't currently growing many tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers is because energy prices have ensured most growers are either minimising what they are growing or taking the winter off..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    edited October 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Some more highlights from an astonishing @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK - Tory supporters, look away now:

    The PM’s net approval rating has fallen from -9 to -37 in a week.

    It’s a worse net rating than the -28 that Johnson registered in the final poll before his removal.


    Starmer has a 17-point lead when voters are asked who they see as the best prime minister.

    Only 32% of 2019 Conservatives think that Truss would be the best prime minister, with 18% preferring Starmer.

    Almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservatives think Johnson would be the best prime minister in a choice with Truss. Only 19% opt for Truss.

    Labour has a 20-point lead on energy/power, a 25-point lead on the NHS, an 11-point lead on immigration & a 21-point lead on housing.

    The Conservatives have gone from a 1-point lead on the economy last week before the mini-budget to a *19-point Labour lead this week*.

    The vast majority of voters (75%) said they thought the government has lost control of the economic situation, while only 18% think the government is in control.

    Even 71% of 2019 Conservative voters think the government has lost control.

    Absolutely no surprise there
    Really! You don't surprise easiiy.

    A very good interview with Glenda Jackson on 'This cultural life'. How she produced that Daily Mail lobby fodder of a child is an absolute mystery.

    A talented interesting and compassionate woman who loathed Thathcher.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Wow. In light of Lyman defeat, Russian z-journalist and blogger Anastasiya Kashevarova goes to telegram to post a long rant asking the right questions because all the other military bloggers have "pu*sied out". This is being picked up by other channels.

    https://t.me/akashevarova/5532 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576306261187907585/photo/1

    tic toc.

  • MJWMJW Posts: 779

    Not a bad poll I suppose. A lot of the moderates will be staying away from the party conference so it will be interesting to see how it goes. Usually you would expect a conference bounce but we might be looking at the opposite this time. Will be fascinating to watch the markets as Truss and Kwarteng give their speeches. Has the 'recovery' been somewhat driven by an expectation that the government will change course? The Bank of England intervention may just be a stay of execution.

    It's just the methodology is more Tory friendly as excludes don't knows - under the bonnet it's as bad if not worse as the others in terms of Tory-Labour switchers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    What time does the Conference kick off tomorrow. I might watch.

    Truss is live on the BBC at 8:30 I think
    What time is the first minute long pause?

    Or are they reserved only for local radio?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744
    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    They seem to be fairly accurate on the new Omicron variants. A few of our staff have tested positive over the last weeks.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
    We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.

    So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
    I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
    Personally I too thought it was possible, but not on a potential extinction scale.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,895
     

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian commentators are blaming a variety of issues or commanders for the fall of Lyman, but the primary problem is that they simply don't have the forces required to hold the current front lines and Putin is telling his military leaders they can't retreat.
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576279070081716225

    Steiner will fix it.
    Hitler was similar. And while it probably didn't cost Germany the war, to put it mildly it didn't help.

    I say it again - Ukraine need to do to Russia as Zhukov did to Paulus at Stalingrad. They say to Putin, 'one up, Uranus.'
    His regime is falling apart in recriminations and failure as the lies becoming too obvious to hide any longer.

    Obvious lying is in the Russian m.o.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    🔴 The One Nation group of Conservative MPs is likely to be a focal point for rebellious Tory MPs seeking to water down the Government’s mini-Budget, The Telegraph has been told https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/01/one-nation-tory-mps-centre-rebellion-against-insane-scrapping/
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    Foxy said:

    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    They seem to be fairly accurate on the new Omicron variants. A few of our staff have tested positive over the last weeks.
    Thanks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?

    https://twitter.com/lordrickettsp/status/1576300178604113920
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: No10's new salad offensive

    🍅 Defra launch dash for growth bid to grow more tomatoes, lettuces and cucumbers
    🥒Ministers want to make British farms more productive
    ✈️Ranil Jayawardena off to Holland to check out farms

    Headline via @thejonnyreilly
    https://bit.ly/3UP3ZAh



    "That was Salad Revolution playing what I personally feel is an under-rated B-side, 'Learning From The Dutch'. Coming up, The Fall." https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1576304397964914690/photo/1




    The Defra thing is genuine open mouth moment. These people have no anchor in the real world what so ever.

    As Sky's Ed Conway has written in a big op-ed piece in S Times only a couple of weeks ago: UK glass house veg and salad growing is packing up shop because of the PRICE OF ENERGY.

    Nothing they see in Holland will make the slightest difference.

    FFS.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,510
    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    Yes. Test is not affected by the mutations.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Useful idiot not resigning...

    Source close to the Chancellor - “Any suggestion attendees had access to privileged information is total nonsense... The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.” https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1576260578946912257
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    ydoethur said:

    If you jump out of the frying pan into the fire, why on earth would you jump back into the fire. IMHO we need a competent caretaker PM like yesterday. Wallace, Gove, Hunt, Hague? Someone suggested Ken Clarke but he must be nearly as old as Uncle Bulgaria by now.

    Okay I'm no Tory but look there's actually the makings of a decent government there.

    Prime minister: Sunak
    Chancellor: Gove
    Foreign: Tugendhat
    Defence: Wallace

    You've got people like Neil O'Brien, Greg Clark, Sajid Javid and I'm sure others who could chip in.
    Amazing nobody has mentioned May. The most experienced minister in the Commons after Gove.

    .
    As I said yesterday, her proven ability to defy the opinion polls is surely what the Tories need right now?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243

    Has this ever happened before? The new PM is fighting for her political life within a month of taking office?

    She is gone by xmas imho.

    Her conference speech will be the final nail for tory MPs who will try now and save their skins from the flood.

    As pointed out earlier.
    Yes it's happened before. She was fighting for her Premiership within three weeks of taking Office.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282

    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    Yes. Test is not affected by the mutations.
    Cheers
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?

    https://twitter.com/lordrickettsp/status/1576300178604113920

    She doesn't want to be overshadowed?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    edited October 2022
    Per Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times:


    I wonder that this didn’t come out before.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507
    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    Yeah, they pick up Omicron and its subvariants fine.
    They picked up my case in August no problem.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,060
    edited October 2022
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The latest Opinium poll in tomorrow’s Observer puts Labour on a 19-point lead. And (not in this article but in the tables) it puts Labour on an ELEVEN point lead over the Tories on *immigration*. Which shows how bad things are for Truss.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Paging @MoonRabbit :lol:
    We all know it as the swingback poll, that’s not honest with us with the actual figure they found (they don’t share that anymore?) but give us a mid term poll with Election Day swingback built in, based on historically what tends to happen. I’m making an assumption this is largely built on voters “going shy” piling up in dk the methodology adds % back on what they voted before, with a much smaller swingback % from respondents now adamant of voting for different party than last time reallocated back to last time - my conclusion is the firm must have picked up a lot of Con to Lab switchers this week, more or less in place of a huge reservoir of shy don’t knows.

    So, as the quite obvious best political betting forum in the known universe, can we say PB did anticipate the astonishing switcheroo in polling this week? Early part of September the hot betting tip was Tory lead?
    I did predict a Truss dip rather than bounce, though perhaps not quite as big.
    As you know already, because I’m a broken record on it, I’m sceptical the markets reacted on the £45B of unfunded tax cuts alone when quarter of a trillion of hand out was in the borrowing proposal alongside it, but I am now also sceptical the run on the Tory polling has come from nowhere attributed solely to the one budget speech. To me, in both those instances, it’s like something was already out there, lurking, silently, and waiting - it’s mind was “I’m nearly convinced, just need to hear a little bit more to be sure.” And hearing a little bit more becoming sure more acted as a trigger for something built up over longer period.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    This is very stark. The big question on peoples’ lips here at Tory conference is ‘how does she turn it round?’. (And the added whisper: ‘can she?’) https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576314291057496064/photo/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    One month in as she is ordering the royal family about even as they still grieve.

    Jeez.

    Has there ever been a more cack handed, tin eared, comms disaster PM?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    The Truss Government has the stench of Death about it
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194
    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    Truss doesn't have the support to get things through the Commons. So does she borrow from the Boris playbook and start deselecting disloyal MPs?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    carnforth said:

    Per Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times:


    I wonder that this didn’t come out before.

    So Kwarteng threw a strop because Scholar was allowed to work from home upto 4 years ago . Jeez what a snowflake !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,112
    rkrkrk said:

    nico679 said:

    We’re still yet to learn why Kwarteng was laughing so much at the Queens funeral . That was very weird. I find it strange that after Johnson I didn’t think it was possible for my anger to reach code red and I thought Truss would just be meh but not trigger that code red. Unfortunately I’ve now passed code red and need to add a new colour !

    I am not sure if he may have a medical condition but it did seem strange
    Rory Stewart (who was at school with him) said he has always been like that... a bit weird, but would daydream and then laugh to himself about what he was thinking about.

    Aside - the rest is politics is a great listen.
    That’s really not a problem (though it might be a political disadvantage).
    The combination of arrogance and lack of judgment is rather more serious.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194

    Baffling. The King is a globally-respected voice on the environment, as I saw when He opened the COP21 summit in Paris. His presence at the Egypt summit w’d have given Britain great impact. He w’d have followed Gov’t advice on substance. What’s the problem?

    https://twitter.com/lordrickettsp/status/1576300178604113920

    The problem is that Truss doesn't want Britain to make a great impact when it comes to climate change.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Financial wires flashed this comment from Home Sec on their trader systems …“What we've got is too many low skilled workers coming into this country…”

    CPC22 combo of Cabinet ministers keen to make a splash, no civil servants, the week after market turmoil, cd be interesting

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1576315630625910784
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,510

    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
    As someone who has never knowingly had covid, I find this interesting. I had a sore throat in Feb, tested negative and left it at that. If I’d tested again who knows.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited October 2022

    ping said:

    Random question: anyone know?

    I have a couple of old Covid testing boxes from when they were free on the nhs. Expires dec 2023.

    Are they sensitive to the new variants?

    I have a sore throat today. Just done one of these tests, and the thought occurred to me… can I be confident in the result?

    My personal experience, and, anecdotally that of some others, is that the LFTs don't return a positive test until a couple of days after symptoms first appear for an Omicron infection.
    Ta.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Thread header photo? Captions? You're welcome.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    She is properly fucking mental


  • Tres said:

    Oops….

    That isn’t me…
    @DailyMirror


    https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1576133060411523072

    Not a great start to “Black History Month”…

    I find the idea October is "Black History Month" is very odd. For me October is Halloween, in the same way as December is Christmas. Black and orange are the colours of October, but not that meaning of black.

    October is about witches, ghouls, skeletons, zombies, devils and so on . . . adding "black people" to that list seems more than a tad unfortunate.

    Just watched Hocus Pocus with the girls, it still holds up. Looking forward to watching Hocus Pocus 2 with them tonight.
    For me Halloween is the 31st and maybe the couple of days leading up to it, not the whole month.
    We enjoy Halloween for the whole month. Halloween movies whenever we watch a movie all month long, there's so many good ones you couldn't do them all in a day, and all the shops have Halloween stuff all month etc too. Plus other activities, we're going pumpkin picking later this month on a farm, then will be pumpkin carving after. The kids do Halloween activities at school, at Rainbows and Brownies. Oh and Pumpkin Spice Latte etc too.

    Halloween is a month long for us, not a day, any more than Christmas is just 25 December.
    When you explain it like that, it does seem terribly inconsiderate that black history should intrude so much into your whole month of focusing on made up childish nonsense.
    "Childish nonsense" - do you consider Christmas to be childish nonsense?

    In case you missed it, most of that stuff I named (apart from the latte) is for my children. So excuse me if activities aimed for children are childish. I suppose Christmas Grottos are made up childish nonsense to you too? 🙄

    December being linked with Christmas, and October with Halloween, is not a novel or new concept. It just strikes me as odd that black history isn't linked to a month without a strong connection to something else already.
    It was a simple pisstake of you getting the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month. That month being October, so enough of the misdirection about Christmas, please.

    And yes, I love Halloween and Christmas. Our kids used to compete to build grottos on Christmas morning and I very much enjoyed the childish nonsense that it was.
    Eh? Where did I say anything negative or get the hump about black history being in focus for a whole month? I didn't, it should be something in focus all year around. In case you forgot, I was in favour of BLM, taking the knee and other things so I have absolutely no objection to Black History Month.

    The only thing I said I thought was odd, was the choice of October, since October is already 'taken'. For me at least and as others have said in America especially, October is already heavily associated with Halloween and all things dark/gothic/creepy/haunted etc. So a different month would make much more sense to me.

    Looking into it, it seems in America and Canada its in February and not October, and its just a British thing that its in October here. Seems odd.

    Anyway, just watched Hocus Pocus 2, a sequel to 1993's Hocus Pocus that's just been released yesterday on Disney+. It was highly enjoyable, I would recommend it to anyone interested in that kind of thing, the kids have both decided they want to dress as two of the Sanderson Sisters now for Halloween.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,060
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: The @LibDems have called for an official inquiry into the Chancellor toasting his mini-budget with bankers.

    "While struggling homeowners saw their mortgage bills spiral it seems the Chancellor was sipping champagne with hedge fund managers profiting from the falling pound."

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1576299941747576835

    If I was Kwarteng I’d go out in disguise . If that type of headline is in tomorrows papers the pubic anger is going to be huge .
    Can the person the mirror thought was chancellor actually be made chancellor?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    She is properly fucking mental


    What's the 45p tax cut got to do with it Liz?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    ...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,319
    Perhaps Truss is going after the net zero, "green crap" in her forthcoming cuts, thus putting her on a collision course with the King ?
This discussion has been closed.