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The Cost of Lizzing Crisis [1] – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839

    There is a large fire reportedly coming from the Belbek airfield in Crimea home to Russia’s 27th Composite Aviation Division.
    https://t.me/chp_crimea/12192


    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1576227894053208065

    Another person got careless with cigarettes?

    Honestly, forget the cancer, the level of smoking in the Russian army is just terribly bad for all their health.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    So is the route to Crewe. They may do an HS2 East on the route from Crewe to Manchester but I would say the rest has gone too far to stop.
    Doing an HS2 East on the route to Manchester currently makes sense - because that really does need to be underground with support for NPR / through trains to Leeds...

    The current design cost saving design on stilts is actually utterly impractical
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292

    How do 10Ks of russian men get a visa to head to spain?
    Well there are certainly there.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254
    WillG said:

    I see Russia is now retreating from a logistics hub in "Russian territory" in a war it started on its neighbour. What a joke of a country.

    Russia claimed to have annexed some territory that they did not hold, and Russia is leaving territory that they did hold. Obviously this is part of a brilliant plan from the incredibly clever Vladimir Putin, and not the mother of all cock-ups, and anyone who disagrees is simply a Russophobe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    Do they want to win the next GE or not?
    Most Birmingham seats are already Labour held, however all Bournemouth seats and Harrogate are Tory held
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    ydoethur said:

    Which is why nobody has been expecting Turkey to ratify Sweden and Finland's NATO membership before next June. When there are elections in Turkey.

    Erdogan has already agreed in principle to let them in and I doubt if he will in practice stop them. But he needs the sabre to rattle for a few months more.
    Sante rattling is a bit harsh. He isn’t Putin. He’s playing the old, traditional, well understood and accepted game of international relations crossing with domestic politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    That will have all the sane Tories attending. I presume they booked only a small room?
    It should have good wine, most Tory Remainers are pretty posh
  • HYUFD said:

    I am afraid it is, if you asked the average Tory conference attendee in the Thatcher years or the Major years or the Hague or Cameron years if they would have preferred the main party conference to be in Bournemouth or Birmingham they would have gone for Bournemouth everytime (with Harrogate for the spring conference)
    This is why they are heading for a long period in opposition
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    eek said:

    Black Wednesday was someone profiteering from the UK being in an impossible situation (it's more than that but it's Soros is the go to poster child for that day).

    Last week was completely self inflicted and the only names and faces involved are Truss and Kwasi...
    Given how self destructive and blinkered it was I expect to hear how Charles Moore talked them into it over a brandy like with Paterson.
  • HYUFD said:

    It should have good wine, most Tory Remainers are pretty posh
    You voted Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    WillG said:

    I see Russia is now retreating from a logistics hub in "Russian territory" in a war it started on its neighbour. What a joke of a country.

    Putin approaches real life the way a computer plays basic strategy games - initiate hostilities and invade, then if the tide starts turning say it is unfair aggression.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    You voted Remain.
    Yes, I am a Tory Remainer, aspiring posh
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    “Realists:”
    1. US weapons won’t help Ukraine
    2. Ok, they’ll help, but Ukraine won’t win
    3. Ok, Ukraine will win but then Russia’s defeat will become America’s problem


    https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1576160006541496320
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,184
    edited October 2022
    glw said:

    Russia claimed to have annexed some territory that they did not hold, and Russia is leaving territory that they did hold. Obviously this is part of a brilliant plan from the incredibly clever Vladimir Putin, and not the mother of all cock-ups, and anyone who disagrees is simply a Russophobe.
    The Nazis annexed Belgium and Nord-Pas de Calais in December 1944, even though they had been pushed out of Belgium by then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichsgau_Flandern
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichsgau_Wallonien
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Brussels
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    eek said:

    Doing an HS2 East on the route to Manchester currently makes sense - because that really does need to be underground with support for NPR / through trains to Leeds...

    The current design cost saving design on stilts is actually utterly impractical
    There's a serious point here. You could probably build HS2 and NPR far more cheaply than they are actually being built, with fairly modest adjustments. One obvious one would be to reduce the top speed. Another would be to remove the almost impossible demands on slippage and settlement and take the risk for some of the more difficult ones back onto the government, not the contractor. That would actually save far more money than the cancellations they keep talking about, and still sort out the railway network

    If I were feeling malicious I would say the reason this isn't being done is because the ultimate goal of the DfT and Treasury is actually to stop it being built, by hook or crook, and if it is built, make as bad a job of it as possible.

    Why, I'm not sure. Bribery is one possibility. Blinkered ideology is another one and possibly one that's more plausible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    HYUFD said:

    Most Birmingham seats are already Labour held, however all Bournemouth seats and Harrogate are Tory held
    Exactly. Do you want to win new voters or do you not want to stray from your comfort zone?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    They do store things in odd places in fairness.

    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump. 🤷

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314?cxt=HHwWhMDR8bOO8t8rAAAA
  • "Dr Adrian Boyle, the incoming president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine told the Observer: 'Covid just makes everything that much harder and it’s entirely valid to link this with critical incidents being called around the country. All hospitals are feeling significant levels of pressure at the moment. Covid is a very heavy straw on the camel’s back.'"

    The guy doesn't understand the meaning of that metaphor. The straw that breaks the camel's back has to be LIGHT. It can only be light. That's the point. Someone should tell him.

    Then again, he already signalled he was a silly sod by prefacing something he was saying with the words "it's entirely valid to". If you've got something to say, just say it, mate.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    HYUFD said:

    I am afraid it is, if you asked the average Tory conference attendee in the Thatcher years or the Major years or the Hague or Cameron years if they would have preferred the main party conference to be in Bournemouth or Birmingham they would have gone for Bournemouth everytime (with Harrogate for the spring conference)
    I rather liked Blackpool in the 1980s: a packed Winter Gardens generated a tension and atmosphere that these ghastly conference centres can’t replicate. Plus the trams, grim bed and breakfasts, and only slightly better hotels.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited October 2022
    JohnO said:

    I rather liked Blackpool in the 1980s: a packed Winter Gardens generated a tension and atmosphere that these ghastly conference centres can’t replicate. Plus the trams, grim bed and breakfasts, and only slightly better hotels.
    Indeed, I went to Blackpool as a student and the bed and breakfasts were much cheaper and the conference hall more atmospheric. Bournemouth too had a good seaside location. No reason you can't alternate the conference between Manchester or Birmingham one year and Blackpool or Bournemouth the next
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    kle4 said:

    They do store things in odd places in fairness.

    The claim by Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol is that a plane overshot runway. If it did, it seems then have run into an arms dump. 🤷

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576229330736525314?cxt=HHwWhMDR8bOO8t8rAAAA

    One wonders whether The Sarge from Airplane II is an airport employee there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Nigelb said:
    Berlusconi and Salvini must be pretty pissed. (Either that, or the incoming Meloni administration will triumphantly announce the gas is now flowing.)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    "Dr Adrian Boyle, the incoming president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine told the Observer: 'Covid just makes everything that much harder and it’s entirely valid to link this with critical incidents being called around the country. All hospitals are feeling significant levels of pressure at the moment. Covid is a very heavy straw on the camel’s back.'"

    The guy doesn't understand the meaning of that metaphor. The straw that breaks the camel's back has to be LIGHT. It can only be light. That's the point. Someone should tell him.

    Then again, he already signalled he was a silly sod by prefacing something he was saying with the words "it's entirely valid to". If you've got something to say, just say it, mate.

    The "heavy straw" could indicate that the camel's back is not quite broken yet, but it's piled on the weight until a light straw will finish the job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    edited October 2022

    Exactly. Do you want to win new voters or do you not want to stray from your comfort zone?
    The Tories need to hold the voters and seats they won in 2019 with Boris, many of whom Truss has lost.

    They have zero chance of gaining any voters who did not vote Tory even in the 2019 landslide year
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    rcs1000 said:

    Berlusconi and Salvini must be pretty pissed. (Either that, or the incoming Meloni administration will triumphantly announce the gas is now flowing.)
    To be fair, Putin is saying that he is conducting an anti-fascist Special Operation.

    In that context, cutting off Italy makes perfect sense.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    Really looking forward to the papers tonight and Liz Truss explaining her plan tomorrow.

    The Tory conference is going to be absolutely fabulous
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    ydoethur said:

    This is electricity generation. Not gas heating. People's heating wouldn't be affecting it.

    (Anyway, it is October 1st. By your logic the heating should be spiking.)
    It is the weekend, though, which means office, industrial and commercial electricity demand will be lower.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,184
    edited October 2022

    Really looking forward to the papers tonight and Liz Truss explaining her plan tomorrow.

    The Tory conference is going to be absolutely fabulous

    "This wheel's on fire, rolling down the road"
  • ydoethur said:

    Or alternatively, rather than follow diets that actual scientists doing proper research can find no evidence of efficacy for, you could exercise more and eat a bit less? Then you might find there are other ways of staying healthy...and you might feel better.

    You might even feel as healthy as I do...
    To be fair I spent years trying various diets and failing. I then adopted the Low carb diet (no more than 130g carbs a day) and have lost over 5 stone in the last 2 years. For me it works. For others it may well not. But to claim there is no efficacy for it seems a little wrong headed.
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tories need to hold the voters and seats they won in 2019 with Boris, many of whom Truss has lost.

    They have zero chance of gaining any voters who did not vote Tory even in the 2019 landslide year
    Why might that be?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    The Tory conference is going to be absolutely fabulous

    Perhaps I had the right idea comparing Liz Truss to Bubble from AbFab.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    "This wheel's on fire, rolling down the road"
    "Three wheels on my wagon, and I'm still rolling along...."
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Why might that be?
    Because they are going to haemorrhage seats. This week's conference will tell us whether or not that realisation has penetrated the fogs and vapours that protect the Tories from experiencing reality.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Perhaps I had the right idea comparing Liz Truss to Bubble from AbFab.
    One problem with comparing Liz Truss to anyone is that you risk insulting the person / thing you are comparing Liz to.

    Bubbles was way more intelligent than Liz is as I pointed out yesterday...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    eek said:

    One problem with comparing Liz Truss to anyone is that you risk insulting the person / thing you are comparing Liz to.

    Bubbles was way more intelligent than Liz is as I pointed out yesterday...
    Michael Jackson’s pet ape would have delivered a better “budget” than this lot.

    Liz is even more bananas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    WillG said:

    I see Russia is now retreating from a logistics hub in "Russian territory" in a war it started on its neighbour. What a joke of a country.

    As I said before, the optics of the inevitability of Russia losing a newly minted bit of "Mother Russia" were always very odd. The million man army of newly minted recruits has done nothing to help.

    It does look likely they will have no ability to stop Ukraine claiming back huge swathes of acreage in the east. The optics just get worse and worse.

    If anybody else had disappointed Putin so badly, they would have disappeared out a sixth floor window. Maybe they still will.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675

    Exactly. Do you want to win new voters or do you not want to stray from your comfort zone?
    Birmingham Northfield is Tory. Classic bell weather swing seat. It has been Tory and Lab off and on all my life since I grew up there in 1970s.

    Lost now of course, barring a miracle after last week's financial Dresden.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    I assume Truss will get a great reception for her 'I'm prepared to be unpopular' stuff at conference? Are they so prepared?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,375
    Mr Eagles,

    As Earl Beatty said at Jutland. "There seems to be something wrong with our defence today."
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lyman liberated, more ProRussian tweeters protect their tweets. Big Serge down, Big Serge Down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    No way is 45p cut getting through when it finally comes to the floor of house.

    James Cartlidge MP 🇬🇧 🇺🇦
    @jcartlidgemp
    ·
    3h
    At my Whatfield surgery yesterday I was asked what I thought of scrapping the 45p tax rate. It’s not right for me to keep my frank answer from other constituents – to be clear, cutting tax for top earners whilst reducing benefits in a cost of living crisis is unacceptable. (1/4)

    https://twitter.com/jcartlidgemp/status/1576184721863680000
  • New Thread

  • "Dr Adrian Boyle, the incoming president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine told the Observer: 'Covid just makes everything that much harder and it’s entirely valid to link this with critical incidents being called around the country. All hospitals are feeling significant levels of pressure at the moment. Covid is a very heavy straw on the camel’s back.'"Itell him.

    Then again, he already signalled he was a silly sod by prefacing something he was saying with the words "it's entirely valid to". If you've got something to say, just say it, mate.

    Isn't his point that this is not the final straw but makes the arrival of the final straw much more likely?
  • No way is 45p cut getting through when it finally comes to the floor of house.

    James Cartlidge MP 🇬🇧 🇺🇦
    @jcartlidgemp
    ·
    3h
    At my Whatfield surgery yesterday I was asked what I thought of scrapping the 45p tax rate. It’s not right for me to keep my frank answer from other constituents – to be clear, cutting tax for top earners whilst reducing benefits in a cost of living crisis is unacceptable. (1/4)

    https://twitter.com/jcartlidgemp/status/1576184721863680000

    It is blatantly impossible to go ahead with it, yet we will still have to hear Truss go for the lady is not for turning followed by a silly grin whilst wearing the biggest poppy she can find.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    ydoethur said:

    There's a serious point here. You could probably build HS2 and NPR far more cheaply than they are actually being built, with fairly modest adjustments. One obvious one would be to reduce the top speed. Another would be to remove the almost impossible demands on slippage and settlement and take the risk for some of the more difficult ones back onto the government, not the contractor. That would actually save far more money than the cancellations they keep talking about, and still sort out the railway network

    If I were feeling malicious I would say the reason this isn't being done is because the ultimate goal of the DfT and Treasury is actually to stop it being built, by hook or crook, and if it is built, make as bad a job of it as possible.

    Why, I'm not sure. Bribery is one possibility. Blinkered ideology is another one and possibly one that's more plausible.
    Given the argument in favour if it was always about capacity, the top speed is a bit irrelevant anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081

    The polling response to this week’s mini-budget is bigger than the one after Black Wednesday.

    More polling due at 10PM tonight
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211

    To be fair I spent years trying various diets and failing. I then adopted the Low carb diet (no more than 130g carbs a day) and have lost over 5 stone in the last 2 years. For me it works. For others it may well not. But to claim there is no efficacy for it seems a little wrong headed.
    You don’t have to be much of a scientist to work out that severely limiting your intake of carbs is likely to result in weight loss.

    Why the antivaxxer nuts think that has any bearing on the safety of vaccines (which incidentally are more closely studied, and in a larger population than any medical treatment in history), is a question I’ll leave to others.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211

    "Dr Adrian Boyle, the incoming president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine told the Observer: 'Covid just makes everything that much harder and it’s entirely valid to link this with critical incidents being called around the country. All hospitals are feeling significant levels of pressure at the moment. Covid is a very heavy straw on the camel’s back.'"

    The guy doesn't understand the meaning of that metaphor. The straw that breaks the camel's back has to be LIGHT. It can only be light. That's the point. Someone should tell him.

    Then again, he already signalled he was a silly sod by prefacing something he was saying with the words "it's entirely valid to". If you've got something to say, just say it, mate.

    Why does the straw have to be light ? I think it’s you that doesn’t understand his use of the metaphor.

    His point is that the NHS is stretched beyond capacity anyway, and Covid is indeed a heavy extra load.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,839
    Nigelb said:

    Given the argument in favour if it was always about capacity, the top speed is a bit irrelevant anyway.
    I agree. Again, I think that may be why it was pushed so much, as a distraction. There is no reason it needs to be more than 180mph and that's not difficult engineering.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292

    "This wheel's on fire, rolling down the road"
    "so notify my next of kin..."
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    In the 1950s, there was a reform movement in the US arguing for "responsible parties". By which the political scientists proposing it meant stronger parties, more like the British parties of that era. It was never a popular movement, and got little attention from elected officials. (At that time, the parties overlapped to a great extent, so knowing what party an elected official belonged to often told you little about what they stood for. Responsible parties would have been against the interests of many politicians, then.)

    For what its's worth, the two major parties have become more cohesive since then. Has that made American democracy work better? I have my doubts.

    (Some political scientists are still making that argument: For example: https://www.amazon.com/Responsible-Parties-Saving-Democracy-Itself/dp/0300232756 )
This discussion has been closed.