That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
Total partisan rubbish. You obviously have never met any MPs. MPs of all parties more than "give a toss" about the country, and Tory MPs no less than any others.
i do actually know 2 tory mps from when i was at university with them....out of all the conservatives at university they were the most venal and crooked of all....thats the type who get to be tory mps
Utter nonsense
There are some like that in all parties, but I can tell you the vast majority of all mps work hard for their constituents and I expect the majority of conservatives ones are contacting each other right now to address this existential crisis for their party
There is one good bit of news in all this for Liz Truss
The only way is up from here..
At next week's conference they could do with a theme song. They could use Yass's "The Only Way is Up", or there is a song by D:Ream , called "Things Can Only Get Better" which might work.
Or it could all be the outlier to end all outliers. Pull you finger out YouGov, the real Labour lead is circa 10% to 15%!
What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide
I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
Agree they can't change leader. So vote down budget and change Chancellor seems the path of least resistance. Hunt or Mordaunt as Chancellor and a quite different cabinet the cost for Truss of staying on.
The humiliation would be huge. It would strip her of all power and a utter discredit of what she stood for at the members election.
That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
Total partisan rubbish. You obviously have never met any MPs. MPs of all parties more than "give a toss" about the country, and Tory MPs no less than any others.
i do actually know 2 tory mps from when i was at university with them....out of all the conservatives at university they were the most venal and crooked of all....thats the type who get to be tory mps
Yea right, of course you did. Excuse me, I must pay attention to that formation of flying pigs that has just buzzed past my window.
i could give you their names but i wont obviously because confidentiality...will say they werent bad people good fun in the bar and i enjoyed their company...but very venal and self serving....just your typical tory mp
What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide
I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
I think if they could find a way to parachute Sunak in and he has a heavyweight team ready to go (and publicly bring in people like Ken Clarke as advisors) he can say he’s focussed on fixing this, no clever games looking at an election and so it needs a heads down approach for a year. I think a lot of people would give that a chance even if it’s just to steady the country before crucifying the Tories when an election happens.
Time to defenestrate Truss and get an emergency PM in. Needs to be led by a senior Tory figure who isn’t insane, of which there are few left in the Commons. I still think TMay next PM is worth a punt.
As funny as it would be to see these bastards drop to that level, these polls are for the birds
I'm not sure they are. There are lots of very pissed off people at the moment. I think half of it is self-inflicted (e.g. taking out mortgages at historically low interest rates knowing that if they went up they'd be homeless) but they won't care about that. They will look for someone to blame and vote for the main opposition to them. The Tories have lost at the next GE. They should now entirely be focused on damage limitation and doing what's best for the country until then.
Maybe the Kantar will be the liferaft some Tory MPs cling to . But the fieldwork was before all the drama .
Survation and redfield i think put us where we realistically are. We are around the 20 point mark 25 to 30 plays 45 to 50, tories will be desperate to get it back to 10. Not in the short term guys!
What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide
I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
Agree they can't change leader. So vote down budget and change Chancellor seems the path of least resistance. Hunt or Mordaunt as Chancellor and a quite different cabinet the cost for Truss of staying on.
The humiliation would be huge. It would strip her of all power and a utter discredit of what she stood for at the members election.
She is already humiliated, discredited and powerless. Options seem to be hold on without a majority in the commons (she has about 60 fans out of over 600) which means compromise with other power groups and non bonkers policies, resign or call a GE.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
Eh?
If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
Leon's answer to that is even if that were the case and it became public, no one would admit it - as he told us earlier today.
I think that's true, tho, don't you? Would the Germans openly accuse America, as we confront Putin? Can't see it
BTW I say again I do not believe this is very very probable, as I do with Lab Leak, I am just nobly trying to battle the site's determination to see this as a mad conspiracy theory. It really is not. It's highly "possible"
No, that really is conspiracy theory style reasoning. "There's no evidence, but that just proves my point." etc.
You are, or at least can be, way better than that.
You have to entertain the possibility of America doing this, first. Which I don't think you are, not seriously, you dislike it too much (as do others)
But try, otherwise the debate is boring
So let's say the Yanks have bombed the pipe. Berlin finds out. Do the Germans publicly denounce the world's premier military power and their nuclear guarantor, even as we all face a possible terrible war with Putin, when they will be entirely relying on America? No, I cannot see that. They can't split NATO, indeed they would try and keep it all secret from the voters
That's not bonkers, that is how it would work. IF America did it
Time to defenestrate Truss and get an emergency PM in. Needs to be led by a senior Tory figure who isn’t insane, of which there are few left in the Commons. I still think TMay next PM is worth a punt.
I think the moderate Tories have to reach out to Starmer. Government of stabilization for 2 years then a GE. A GE in the middle of this financial mess will cause chaos
If the Tories are on 21%, they will definitely have more than two seats.
The interesting thing really is the psychological effect on MPs. Even if they cannot remove her in a VONC they can refuse to vote through the Budget, or vote against the King's Speech. That would bring the government down at once. Any more polls like this and surely they will be tempted at least to try in the hope of limiting the damage.
It's surely fair to say that if Dave had never called that Brexit vote, we'd never have heard of Liz Truss. We know Dave's reasons, but could Farage have actually caused the Tories this much damage?
In other news, Truss revealed to be a deep cover LibDem agent sent to destroy the Tory party.
First, she kills off the Queen. Then the Conservative Party. One cannot imagine a more successful mission.
must admit its been quite a first month...the queen dies....putin threatens nukes...the economy starts to collapse leading to emergency intervention from BoE..and now the tory party destroyed....all in one month September....well done Liz
A spasm of anger and fear has engulfed the Tories. Obviously some recovery from 33% is possible but there are some formidable obstacles. Even if policies optimal for votes are followed, interest rates will rise (unless we are facing an almighty recession). Living standards will be under threat for several years due to energy issues. Truss is a wooden performer.
Time to defenestrate Truss and get an emergency PM in. Needs to be led by a senior Tory figure who isn’t insane, of which there are few left in the Commons. I still think TMay next PM is worth a punt.
I think the moderate Tories have to reach out to Starmer. Government of stabilization for 2 years then a GE. A GE in the middle of this financial mess will cause chaos
GNU with a breakaway Tory faction with Labour confidence & supply for now with the promise of a GE in May?
It's surely fair to say that if Dave had never called that Brexit vote, we'd never have heard of Liz Truss. We know Dave's reasons, but could Farage have actually caused the Tories this much damage?
Have you forgotten her previous Turnip Taliban claim to fame as one of Dave's A-listers?
What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide
I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
They could do so comparatively easily, I think. Instal Wallace with Sunak as Chancellor on the basis of steadying the ship, and an election now would be too risky for the economy etc. Election in the spring.
If they stick with Truss, it really does look like possible extinction (as I suggested after the fiscal event). Carrying on regardless just isn't an option; the alternative at least offers an honourable hope of rescuing something from the wreckage.
I guess that rules out the prospect of Truss calling a snap election.
As I often say, yougov polling has become so volatile as to be unusable. This poll should not be allowed to be entered on the wiki page, as it will simply ruin a useful tool.
A petition should be started to ban this poll from being entered onto the wiki page in my opinion.
Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
To be fair, it wouldn't really pan out exactly like that.
Once we got into an election campaign and people got the message about tactical voting, those two Tory seats would move across to the Lib Dem column.
Would they though? As I think (on current boundaries) they would probably be Boston & Skegness, and Rayleigh & Wickford, Con vote shares of 72.6 and 76.7 in 2019, Lab second in both.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
“Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.”
Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.
And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget is the truth.
Goat makes up 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out, but had our credit declined. With goat at 88.04% why do you think credit was declined? Additional tax cuts the root cause of the credit declined?
You need to rethink this one 🙂
Truss is wrong, being utterly disingenuous. Yes we needed some sort of bovidae but this shaggy goat is all wrong, it’s needs to be smaller, less hairy, with smaller long term costs and better targeted in what it does. The irony here is Truss forced into cutting the goats hair by markets, goes down in history books for switching to a much sounder policy.
Here’s the kicker. Labour are being disgustingly disingenuous about this all week as well, spouting the same thoughtless rubbish as you just did Eek, trying to make out its nothing to do with the energy bill package, its problem simply the tax cutting ribbons wrapped round it - don’t listen to Labour saying that, the truth is nearly opposite of that. Yes Kwasi an idiot for wrapping tax cuts like ribbons around the energy bills package, and the entire British media pathetically useless for not explaining these truths to the nation as well as I have been explaining on PB all week.
Come and join my position when you are ready, in your own time. But you are running out of time before the UK government starts shaving the goat, which means you’re too slow,
All I'm seeing in your gibberish is someone who hasn't got the first clue what is going on..
Why don’t you just post the evidence to support your view like I suggested. 🙂
Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?
I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.
And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. This is the bit that has fooled you all. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
I am still waiting for evidence. If you are going to be rude to someone, you need to produce evidence to back up your assertions and statements. .
I’m not allowing you wriggle room because I explained the tax cutting budget sparked the markets and IMF - but its size of our borrowing for an unnecessary bill freeze package that forms the beef in their argument and action.
Comments
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1575527343237505024
There are some like that in all parties, but I can tell you the vast majority of all mps work hard for their constituents and I expect the majority of conservatives ones are contacting each other right now to address this existential crisis for their party
Or it could all be the outlier to end all outliers. Pull you finger out YouGov, the real Labour lead is circa 10% to 15%!
They've still got the party conference to get through.
Con 60, Lab 467, SNP 51, LD 46, PC 3, Green 1, Reform 0
LAB: 498 (+296)
CON: 61 (-304)
SNP: 36 (-12)
LDM: 29 (+18)
PLC: 4 (=)
Others: 2 (+2)
GRN: 1 (=)
NI: 18
Labour Majority of 346 https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192/photo/1
NEW THREAD
But try, otherwise the debate is boring
So let's say the Yanks have bombed the pipe. Berlin finds out. Do the Germans publicly denounce the world's premier military power and their nuclear guarantor, even as we all face a possible terrible war with Putin, when they will be entirely relying on America? No, I cannot see that. They can't split NATO, indeed they would try and keep it all secret from the voters
That's not bonkers, that is how it would work. IF America did it
The interesting thing really is the psychological effect on MPs. Even if they cannot remove her in a VONC they can refuse to vote through the Budget, or vote against the King's Speech. That would bring the government down at once. Any more polls like this and surely they will be tempted at least to try in the hope of limiting the damage.
It could happen.
Instal Wallace with Sunak as Chancellor on the basis of steadying the ship, and an election now would be too risky for the economy etc. Election in the spring.
If they stick with Truss, it really does look like possible extinction (as I suggested after the fiscal event). Carrying on regardless just isn't an option; the alternative at least offers an honourable hope of rescuing something from the wreckage.
A petition should be started to ban this poll from being entered onto the wiki page in my opinion.
Got to pay for millionaire tax breaks somehow i suppose
We need another byelection in the SW.
I’m not allowing you wriggle room because I explained the tax cutting budget sparked the markets and IMF - but its size of our borrowing for an unnecessary bill freeze package that forms the beef in their argument and action.