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A LAB majority bet is starting to look value – politicalbetting.com

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  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
    the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited September 2022
    Jesus fucking Christ




  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Scott_xP said:

    Chris said:

    I hate to be pedantic,

    I suspect that statement not to be wholly accurate
    It's a fair cop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Leon said:

    So the timeline is

    1. America openly vows - if Russia invades Ukraine - to cut Nordstream2 for good, "one way or another" - either by getting Germany to close it down or by "another way". Biden repeats this threat later. Explicitly. Standing next to the German Chancellor

    2. Nordstream 2 is "suspended"

    3. Russia invades Ukraine

    4. Calls grow in Germany, from senior politicians, to open Nordstream2, a move seen as benefiting Putin, financially and strategically

    5. Boom. Nordstream2 is cut for good, one way or another. Fuck, who did that?

    4 is simply not true.

    There was one speech, by one politician, with the express purpose of filling the storage up ahead of the winter, so as to reduce Germany's dependence on imported gas over the winter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Tory MPs heading to Birmingham at the weekend will be particularly interested in these findings:

    -Just 10% think budget was fair

    -Only 15% think Truss doing is well

    -44% of voters think Rishi Sunak would have been better PM, just 13% worse
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Scott_xP said:

    If Sunak had won, would he have been doing better or worse as PM?

    Better: 44
    Worse: 13

    *Including only those who still say they plan to vote Conservative*

    Better: 36
    Worse: 29

    Who are the 29 who think Rishi would have done worse? What could he possibly have done to be worse than the impact of this budget?
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    HAHAHA OMFG.
    Horse was wrong again with his twenty point lead threads.....
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    PeterM said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    -Labour takes 33 point lead in poll last night/today

    - Tories down 7 points in four days; Labour up 9

    -Just 37% of 2019 Con voters saying they would vote Tory now

    -Three times as many voters pick Starmer as best PM as Truss

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Good grief that’s astonishing.
    no more than they deserve..when my dad said hes not voting tory again i knew they were screwed
    Given the reaction of died-in-the-wool Tory voters here to the antics of the Truss adminstration so far, I guess these poll results are not surprising. But even so, surely Tory MPs are going to have to act? Are they really going to keep holding on, Micawber like, hoping things will get better?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    That poll seems to be one of those where huge anger translates into a really wow moment . I think the Tories will recover quite a lot of that as long as there’s no more turmoil . But still it does show what a ckusterfxck Truss and Kwarteng have made over the last week.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    That is an astonishing poll. Never seen anything quite like it
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Er... Boom, or what?!
    When if ever did we see figures like that

    Bloomberg saying Truss to be out this year maybe pessimistic, she could be out in the next few days

    Truss and Kwarteng have to resign or be forced out
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Tories first to experience the trickle-down effect.
    https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1575523980039098368
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Jesus fucking Christ




    Truss bounce innit?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


  • LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    HAHAHAHA

    I'm actually impressed at how much Truss is f**ked
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    Jesus fucking Christ




    People don't like hearing "You might have been penniless next month if it had been left to the government"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Do you think Kwasi Kwarteng is doing a good job or a bad job as chancellor?

    Good job: 7 (-3 from end of last week)
    Bad job: 60 (+24)

    Do you think the govt is managing the economy well or badly?

    Well: 11 (-5)
    Badly: 76 (+8)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
    Any other leader would be 40pts ahead!!

    Seriously though a fitting end for Truss/JRM and the "proper Torie"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Phil said:

    kyf_100 said:

    PeterM said:

    boulay said:

    PeterM said:

    boulay said:

    PeterM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PeterM said:

    fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks

    My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
    On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
    Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens

    Like very early Covid. What's going on?
    I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
    ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned
    tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
    Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
    im doing whats best for my own
    funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
    Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.

    I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.

    But keep up the good work.

    rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
    If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.

    I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.

    DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
    Wow! Do not do this!
    +1 completely agreed. 💯

    USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
    ++1.

    Every “stable coin” is suspect. I wouldn’t trust any of them.

    If you want short term $ exposure, go to your broker and buy a into a $-denominated money market fund.

    Vanguard does one (ticker VMFXX I think), BlackRock too.

    These funds publish their holdings on a regular basis (daily?) and are audited by real auditors. You can’t say that about any of the soi-disant “stable coins”.
    If you are any kind of prepper, physical gold, canned goods, assault rifles in the makers grease are the way to go. Don’t forget the ammo…

    The ROI for those is pretty good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Why would America zap the pipeline?

    For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"

    In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it

    There are several potential benificiaries:

    - Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages
    - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal
    - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline

    But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
    Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important

    How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA

    In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
    On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"

    On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
    Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany


    Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

    Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

    Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662?s=20&t=Mk8PZkGOOxgvaSv3e3Mrvw


    Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
    There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.

    Really?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/19/reopen-nord-stream-2-ease-energy-crisis-senior-german-politician/



    "Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
    Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"

    A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.

    "We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.

    Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."

    Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
    Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.

    Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.


    As that article shows, reopening Nordstream2 - or just the idea if reopening it - was seen as helping Putin

    Why then would Putin permanently destroy this pipeline, if he's got senior German politicians wanting to reopen it and pay him for gas? Increasing Russia's leverage?

    It's not a slam dunk but if you ask Cui Bono from the sabotage, the answer is: the USA (and Ukraine), not Putin

    And America expressly said they would do this!

    Like I say, not proven yet, but dismissing this plausible scenario as a "mad Trumpite fantasy", as some do, is really quite bizarre



    That's simply not true. There's plenty of cui bono for Putin.

    In particular it means closing off the route for him to be bumped off and for things to go back to normal. See - he can say to the oligarchs - there is no normal to return to.
  • Leon said:

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    Very good!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    edited September 2022
    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If Sunak had won, would he have been doing better or worse as PM?

    Better: 44
    Worse: 13

    *Including only those who still say they plan to vote Conservative*

    Better: 36
    Worse: 29

    Who are the 29 who think Rishi would have done worse? What could he possibly have done to be worse than the impact of this budget?
    Well tbf it's got to be a very small sample size as it's "Including only those who still say they plan to vote Conservative".

    I suspect the answer to your question is Barty and WilliamG.
  • Imposing a peace settlement onto Ukraine because of threats from Ru would not be a simple matter. Obviously US is critical but Poland and Baltic states and others are really committed. Even if NATO acted as one, unofficial hostilities would be bound to continue and I think Russia is fundamentally destabilised now no matter what happens. An imposed ceasefire could destabilise Ukraine as well.
  • PeterM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
    the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
    Total partisan rubbish. You obviously have never met any MPs. MPs of all parties more than "give a toss" about the country, and Tory MPs no less than any others.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    And another video

    The Department of State talking about Nord Stream 2 in January 2022



    @UnderSecStateP
    Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

    https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1486818088016355336?s=20&t=VlDNshCBvcF347TYOmlvZA

    She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up

    How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering



    What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.

    Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.

    If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
    This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.

    At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
    I think it's fair to call it "not very credible", as Russia has suitable submarines in the Baltic, and to get the 8-9000 tonne American ones that could do the job through the Kattegat and the shallow, narrow passages through the Danish islands would be quite difficult to do secretly or require Scandinavian cooperation, neither of which is very likely imo.
    You don't need a 9000 tonne submarine to do it. As it happens, the US had divers from the Naval Undersea Warfare Center conducting experiments in the location where the pipeline was blown this summer.

    https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
    And Russia, last week.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-leak-russian-navy-ships/index.html
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316

    Jesus fucking Christ




    In other news, Truss revealed to be a deep cover LibDem agent sent to destroy the Tory party.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    The tories probably do need an extinction level event like this one. Utterly deserved

    But that is such a stonking lead. And now they have the worse communicator in government trying to tell us how it’s all going to make us better
  • Leon said:

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    I would expect them to do considerable better tactially in a an actual GE... which is also a worry for the Tories
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Scott_xP said:

    -Labour takes 33 point lead in poll last night/today

    - Tories down 7 points in four days; Labour up 9

    -Just 37% of 2019 Con voters saying they would vote Tory now

    -Three times as many voters pick Starmer as best PM as Truss

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    But the Labour Party have only just had their conference, and the PB wise men say that you cannot believe opinion polls too much that close to a conference.

    The Conservatives are holding theirs very soon now, and surely that will also have an effect.

    The Lib Dems, of course, had theirs cancelled.

    So the extrapolation of seat numbers is almost certainly distorted. Labour need to promote the introduction of PR now if they want to head the next government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That is going to be a happy Conference!
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    This aligns with my thinking and why the Tories may well now act.

    Serious political point. There is now no such thing as a safe Tory seat. And Tory MPs will begin to act accordingly.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1575524951708225541
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    As an aside, the truth will definitely come out on the pipeline.

    I would be prepared to bet heavily that it was not the US.

    I could see it being the Ukrainians (looking to ensure the Germans don't flip flop), or Putin (looking to prevent the oligarchs bumping him off).

    But I don't believe that the US does benefit. It means higher consumer prices in the US. And that is electoral poison for the President.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    Starmer out! ;-)
  • Oryx reaches 1,200 Russian tanks destroyed, captured or abandoned:
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Nearly 6,500 pieces of kit lost in total.

    I know some on here are sceptical, and think Russian still has loads of stonking armour in reserve, but that has to be hurting them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Survation 21 point lead

    NEW Westminster Voting Intention. Largest Labour lead (21 points) we've ever recorded.

    CON 28% (-5)
    LAB 49% (+6)
    LD 11% (nc)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    GRE 1% (-2)
    Others 7% (+2)
    *Changes in comparison to Survation polling September 5th 2022

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1575522804644007941

    Not as bad as Yougov but more plausible and still Oh Boy



    Would say Tories are 11 or so seats too high here and Lib Dems should be on 33 but it's quick and dirty processing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Ah. The aliens are here to observe the moves in UK polling. Understandably
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    dixiedean said:

    Moody's to discuss a downgrade of UK.

    While they are at it, may as well downgrade the Conservative Party to junk status!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Why would America zap the pipeline?

    For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"

    In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it

    There are several potential benificiaries:

    - Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages
    - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal
    - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline

    But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
    Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important

    How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA

    In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
    On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"

    On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
    Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany


    Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

    Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

    Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662?s=20&t=Mk8PZkGOOxgvaSv3e3Mrvw


    Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
    There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.

    Really?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/19/reopen-nord-stream-2-ease-energy-crisis-senior-german-politician/



    "Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
    Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"

    A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.

    "We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.

    Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."

    Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
    Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.

    Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
    If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
    Eh?

    If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
    Leon's answer to that is even if that were the case and it became public, no one would admit it - as he told us earlier today.
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302

    PeterM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
    the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
    Total partisan rubbish. You obviously have never met any MPs. MPs of all parties more than "give a toss" about the country, and Tory MPs no less than any others.
    i do actually know 2 tory mps from when i was at university with them....out of all the conservatives at university they were the most venal and crooked of all....thats the type who get to be tory mps
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    So the news of the 33-point Labour lead, it's fair to say, is percolating around Westminster. Among repeatable Tory responses:

    "She's toast."

    Still unclear how and when, but people were angry last night before this.


    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575525163981950986
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,156
    edited September 2022
    Hahaha !

    33% !

    It's such a ridiculous, comical number for a lead, like elections as a toytown games set, that's it's almost relaxing and amusing after the last few days.

    Surely that's never been matched in a UK-wide poll ? And why is the poll earlier today so much more "regular" - earlier fieldwork ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Leon said:

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    I would expect them to do considerable better tactially in a an actual GE... which is also a worry for the Tories
    I doubt the 2 remaining Tories will be too fussed
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    edited September 2022
    rcs1000 said:


    I could see it being the Ukrainians ...

    Planet vfb,ruhbtkiugbr calling Planet Earth ... "I could see it being the Ukrainians".

    Jesus wept.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.

    Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.

    Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.

    I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
    Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.

    The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
    “Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.”

    Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.

    And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget is the truth.

    Goat makes up 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out, but had our credit declined. With goat at 88.04% why do you think credit was declined? Additional tax cuts the root cause of the credit declined?

    You need to rethink this one 🙂

    Truss is wrong, being utterly disingenuous. Yes we needed some sort of bovidae but this shaggy goat is all wrong, it’s needs to be smaller, less hairy, with smaller long term costs and better targeted in what it does. The irony here is Truss forced into cutting the goats hair by markets, goes down in history books for switching to a much sounder policy.

    Here’s the kicker. Labour are being disgustingly disingenuous about this all week as well, spouting the same thoughtless rubbish as you just did Eek, trying to make out its nothing to do with the energy bill package, its problem simply the tax cutting ribbons wrapped round it - don’t listen to Labour saying that, the truth is nearly opposite of that. Yes Kwasi an idiot for wrapping tax cuts like ribbons around the energy bills package, and the entire British media pathetically useless for not explaining these truths to the nation as well as I have been explaining on PB all week.

    Come and join my position when you are ready, in your own time. But you are running out of time before the UK government starts shaving the goat, which means you’re too slow,
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    There is one good bit of news in all this for Liz Truss

    The only way is up from here..
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    Wow. That is elected dictatorship levels. The SNP become HM Official Opposition. Well done Brexiteers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    They'd probably still split the party.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Why would America zap the pipeline?

    For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"

    In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it

    There are several potential benificiaries:

    - Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages
    - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal
    - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline

    But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
    Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important

    How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA

    In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
    On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"

    On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
    Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany


    Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

    Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

    Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662?s=20&t=Mk8PZkGOOxgvaSv3e3Mrvw


    Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
    There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.

    Really?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/19/reopen-nord-stream-2-ease-energy-crisis-senior-german-politician/



    "Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
    Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"

    A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.

    "We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.

    Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."

    Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
    Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.

    Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
    If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
    Eh?

    If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
    Leon's answer to that is even if that were the case and it became public, no one would admit it - as he told us earlier today.
    I think that's true, tho, don't you? Would the Germans openly accuse America, as we confront Putin? Can't see it

    BTW I say again I do not believe this is very very probable, as I do with Lab Leak, I am just nobly trying to battle the site's determination to see this as a mad conspiracy theory. It really is not. It's highly "possible"

  • rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, the truth will definitely come out on the pipeline.

    I would be prepared to bet heavily that it was not the US.

    I could see it being the Ukrainians (looking to ensure the Germans don't flip flop), or Putin (looking to prevent the oligarchs bumping him off).

    But I don't believe that the US does benefit. It means higher consumer prices in the US. And that is electoral poison for the President.

    If no gas was going to flow through the pipeline anyway, why would Biden expect any meaningful impact on US consumer prices?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
    Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
  • Scott_xP said:

    So the news of the 33-point Labour lead, it's fair to say, is percolating around Westminster. Among repeatable Tory responses:

    "She's toast."

    Still unclear how and when, but people were angry last night before this.


    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1575525163981950986

    6.4 out by xmas still available
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    Starmer out! ;-)
    SKSICWNBPM :smile:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    And another video

    The Department of State talking about Nord Stream 2 in January 2022



    @UnderSecStateP
    Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

    https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1486818088016355336?s=20&t=VlDNshCBvcF347TYOmlvZA

    She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up

    How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering



    What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.

    Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.

    If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
    This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.

    At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
    I think it's fair to call it "not very credible", as Russia has suitable submarines in the Baltic, and to get the 8-9000 tonne American ones that could do the job through the Kattegat and the shallow, narrow passages through the Danish islands would be quite difficult to do secretly or require Scandinavian cooperation, neither of which is very likely imo.
    The Americans did a large yet secretive military maneuver in the Baltic in June

    https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
    Reported in an independent magazine on your link whilst in progress, and with across the board press coverage.

    Secretive? :smile:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    eek said:

    There is one good bit of news in all this for Liz Truss

    The only way is up from here..

    You want to bet?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    I think Truss falls now, and they choose Sunak

    What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide
  • SKS fans please explain
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    Labour government with the SNP as his majesty's loyal opposition. Genuine LOL. Please make this happen.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.

    Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.

    Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.

    I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
    Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.

    The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
    “Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.”

    Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.

    And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget is the truth.

    Goat makes up 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out, but had our credit declined. With goat at 88.04% why do you think credit was declined? Additional tax cuts the root cause of the credit declined?

    You need to rethink this one 🙂

    Truss is wrong, being utterly disingenuous. Yes we needed some sort of bovidae but this shaggy goat is all wrong, it’s needs to be smaller, less hairy, with smaller long term costs and better targeted in what it does. The irony here is Truss forced into cutting the goats hair by markets, goes down in history books for switching to a much sounder policy.

    Here’s the kicker. Labour are being disgustingly disingenuous about this all week as well, spouting the same thoughtless rubbish as you just did Eek, trying to make out its nothing to do with the energy bill package, its problem simply the tax cutting ribbons wrapped round it - don’t listen to Labour saying that, the truth is nearly opposite of that. Yes Kwasi an idiot for wrapping tax cuts like ribbons around the energy bills package, and the entire British media pathetically useless for not explaining these truths to the nation as well as I have been explaining on PB all week.

    Come and join my position when you are ready, in your own time. But you are running out of time before the UK government starts shaving the goat, which means you’re too slow,
    All I'm seeing in your gibberish is someone who hasn't got the first clue what is going on..

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Tory MP Roger Gale refuses to say whether he will vote for the Kami-Kwasi Budget. Tells @SkyNews he and other colleagues will want to see whether the Govt will change tac.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1575526262012903430
  • SKS fans please explain

    Bored the Tories into a state of perpetual madness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    AlistairM said:

    If the letters aren't going into Sir Graham Brady now then WTF is wrong with them. There are 242 of them for whom Liz was not their preference.

    Although they do have a big enough majority to push through legislation to give us, oh, maybe 25 year long Parliaments?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    They'd probably still split the party.
    JRM will be left standing and will be declared the new leader
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    HAHAHA OMFG.
    Horse was wrong again with his twenty point lead threads.....
    Poor Horse. His head might explode. Happy for him tho. Enjoy your moment. Which might turn into a year or more.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    to be fair she said she was ready to be unpopular https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1575522983610908673
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
    Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
    I don't think the models accurately estimate Lib Dem chances in many of the seats..
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    I expect this poll lead will never be seen again during this parliament and the Tories will recover quite a lot . But the question now is whether something changed regarding a section of voters who will now never vote Tory whilst Truss and Kwarteng remain .

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I mean i think theres an element of polling modelling shattering due to knee jerk shock this week but wow
    The Tories need to act immedately and decisively.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
    Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
    To be fair, it wouldn't really pan out exactly like that.

    Once we got into an election campaign and people got the message about tactical voting, those two Tory seats would move across to the Lib Dem column.
  • So who’s going to have the biggest smirk, SKS, Rishi or the FLSOJ?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    Labour government with the SNP as his majesty's loyal opposition. Genuine LOL. Please make this happen.
    It would actually be pretty terrible for democracy. There needs to always be a reasonable level of opposition.
  • PeterM said:

    PeterM said:

    AlistairM said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    That should focus the minds of all Tory MPs. Act now unless you want complete annihilation.
    the only thing tory mps understand is their own self interest...they certainly couldnt give a toss about the country
    Total partisan rubbish. You obviously have never met any MPs. MPs of all parties more than "give a toss" about the country, and Tory MPs no less than any others.
    i do actually know 2 tory mps from when i was at university with them....out of all the conservatives at university they were the most venal and crooked of all....thats the type who get to be tory mps
    Yea right, of course you did. Excuse me, I must pay attention to that formation of flying pigs that has just buzzed past my window.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Leon said:

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    That's the really notable thing you take from this?
  • PeterMPeterM Posts: 302
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MP Roger Gale refuses to say whether he will vote for the Kami-Kwasi Budget. Tells @SkyNews he and other colleagues will want to see whether the Govt will change tac.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1575526262012903430

    i think this is why the pound is strengthening...the budget will be voted down and the truss administration will collapse
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Downing Street press office release picture of PM Truss on being told the You Gov poll.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Spare a thought for the SNP...
  • Leon said:

    I think Truss falls now, and they choose Sunak

    What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide

    I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
    Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
    I don't think the models accurately estimate Lib Dem chances in many of the seats..
    I did rather wonder! But if the LD vote goes *down* ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.

    Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.

    Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.

    I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
    Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.

    The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
    “Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.”

    Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.

    And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget is the truth.

    Goat makes up 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out, but had our credit declined. With goat at 88.04% why do you think credit was declined? Additional tax cuts the root cause of the credit declined?

    You need to rethink this one 🙂

    Truss is wrong, being utterly disingenuous. Yes we needed some sort of bovidae but this shaggy goat is all wrong, it’s needs to be smaller, less hairy, with smaller long term costs and better targeted in what it does. The irony here is Truss forced into cutting the goats hair by markets, goes down in history books for switching to a much sounder policy.

    Here’s the kicker. Labour are being disgustingly disingenuous about this all week as well, spouting the same thoughtless rubbish as you just did Eek, trying to make out its nothing to do with the energy bill package, its problem simply the tax cutting ribbons wrapped round it - don’t listen to Labour saying that, the truth is nearly opposite of that. Yes Kwasi an idiot for wrapping tax cuts like ribbons around the energy bills package, and the entire British media pathetically useless for not explaining these truths to the nation as well as I have been explaining on PB all week.

    Come and join my position when you are ready, in your own time. But you are running out of time before the UK government starts shaving the goat, which means you’re too slow,
    All I'm seeing in your gibberish is someone who hasn't got the first clue what is going on..

    Why don’t you just post the evidence to support your view like I suggested. 🙂

    Is that what you believe? Then you should provide some evidence to support it easy enough shouldn’t you?

    I want evidence everyone else in Europe is borrowing a quarter of a trillion to freeze their energy bills for everybody, “just the same” as you put it.

    And I want evidence from you it’s been built into the market for weeks. This is the bit that has fooled you all. What detail about cost and payment mechanism has the Uk shared before Queens death and during mourning, truth is they fobbed the whole world off as far as Kwasi’s budget before the madness of this type of freezing plan was moved against.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    LOL

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (+9)
    CON: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 28 - 29 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

    The really notable thing is the collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    That's the really notable thing you take from this?
    JFC the world is collapsing. Allow me a little joke
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, the truth will definitely come out on the pipeline.

    I would be prepared to bet heavily that it was not the US.

    I could see it being the Ukrainians (looking to ensure the Germans don't flip flop), or Putin (looking to prevent the oligarchs bumping him off).

    But I don't believe that the US does benefit. It means higher consumer prices in the US. And that is electoral poison for the President.

    If no gas was going to flow through the pipeline anyway, why would Biden expect any meaningful impact on US consumer prices?
    Er... the price of gas started to climb again after the Nordstream damage was reported.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Sparks flying, children crying, crowds chanting for you to be dropped in a pit all while you spin uselessly on the floor. But enough about the Conservative MP group WhatsApp. Sorry Trussy, we know the only real Iron Lady is Matilda, as she looks after tonight's Quarter Final https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1575522489572229129 https://twitter.com/stepheniscowboy/status/1575525396673548292/photo/1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    That's Canada Tory levels of wipeout.
    Not that the LDs are doing well, which does surprise me. The SNP would end up as HM's Loyal Opposition.
    It's a "don't fanny about with the LibDems, just vote Labour and get the job done" sentiment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Why would America zap the pipeline?

    For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"

    In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it

    There are several potential benificiaries:

    - Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages
    - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal
    - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline

    But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
    Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important

    How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA

    In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
    On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"

    On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
    Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany


    Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

    Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

    Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662?s=20&t=Mk8PZkGOOxgvaSv3e3Mrvw


    Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
    There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.

    Really?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/19/reopen-nord-stream-2-ease-energy-crisis-senior-german-politician/



    "Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
    Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"

    A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.

    "We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.

    Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."

    Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
    Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.

    Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
    If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
    Eh?

    If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
    Leon's answer to that is even if that were the case and it became public, no one would admit it - as he told us earlier today.
    I think that's true, tho, don't you? Would the Germans openly accuse America, as we confront Putin? Can't see it

    BTW I say again I do not believe this is very very probable, as I do with Lab Leak, I am just nobly trying to battle the site's determination to see this as a mad conspiracy theory. It really is not. It's highly "possible"

    No, that really is conspiracy theory style reasoning.
    "There's no evidence, but that just proves my point." etc.

    You are, or at least can be, way better than that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    You don’t get numbers like this outside Russian referenda. ~AA https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1575522489572229129
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    So who’s going to have the biggest smirk, SKS, Rishi or the FLSOJ?

    I'm not sure Rishi will be smirking when he finds out he's going to lose his seat and never be in political power again.
  • AlistairM said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    Labour government with the SNP as his majesty's loyal opposition. Genuine LOL. Please make this happen.
    It would actually be pretty terrible for democracy. There needs to always be a reasonable level of opposition.
    You don't think the SNP could provide that? You obviously don't know them very well! 😂
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    I think Truss falls now, and they choose Sunak

    What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide

    I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
    No, they are cornered like Putin. It is time for the tactical nuke of a Mark Francois premiership
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Maybe the Kantar will be the liferaft some Tory MPs cling to . But the fieldwork was before all the drama .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Sir Andrew Strauss is right, county cricket is shit and it needs to be abolished.

    I thought you didn't support the cheating racists any more?
  • As funny as it would be to see these bastards drop to that level, these polls are for the birds
  • Leon said:

    I think Truss falls now, and they choose Sunak

    What an absolute mess. Maybe a GE is the only option, but the Tories won't allow it because: suicide

    I don't think they can change leaders again without the pressure for a GE becoming unbearable, the fissures in the Tory party exploding and the party's reputation with the public being utterly trashed. There are no good outcomes for them now. 🎻
    Agree they can't change leader. So vote down budget and change Chancellor seems the path of least resistance. Hunt or Mordaunt as Chancellor and a quite different cabinet the cost for Truss of staying on.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,089
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING

    Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times

    Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS

    Lab: 54 (+9)
    Con: 21 (-7)
    Lib: 7 (-2)
    Green: 6 (-1)
    Ref: 4 (+1)

    Fieldwork: Today and yesterday

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7

    Which 2 Tories remain in Parliament?


    I think the most important message from that prediction is… looking bad for Plaid Cymru.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    edited September 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, the truth will definitely come out on the pipeline.

    I would be prepared to bet heavily that it was not the US.

    I could see it being the Ukrainians (looking to ensure the Germans don't flip flop), or Putin (looking to prevent the oligarchs bumping him off).

    But I don't believe that the US does benefit. It means higher consumer prices in the US. And that is electoral poison for the President.

    If no gas was going to flow through the pipeline anyway, why would Biden expect any meaningful impact on US consumer prices?
    Er... the price of gas started to climb again after the Nordstream damage was reported.
    That wasn't the question. Prices rose because of the perception of risk. The question was why it would enter Biden's calculations when giving the hypothetical order.
This discussion has been closed.