Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The counter to this is - how many retired CIA guys did they ask that wouldn't suggest Putin will go nuclear?
I see your point, but that guy is sane and eloquent and apparently well-informed, and TBH, he looks fucking scared, doesn't he?
It reminds me eerily of an interview, very early in Covid, which was prescient, and had a terrified-looking but sober financial guy saying "this is a terrible thing" - and I knew then that we were def fucked
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
In mid September 2008 Cable rallied from 1.76 to 1.85, in the middle of a six month period when it went from 2 to 1.40. I would be very wary of calling the end of this.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
So I win, because whoever I was arguing with contended it was 4.30 on the dot.
No, i said the PM was informed at 4.30, not that the queen died at 4.30. I've never claimed that.
To both of you:
The answer is, none, because angels don't dance on the head of pins.
Can we now get back to conspiracy theories around Putin not being madder than a box of frogs multiplied by Susan Michie?
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
Yep, pretty much agree. No-one is going to buy the external factors excuse after this week's mess.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
ftse down 2.25% now uk gilt yields up 4.45% these things take time to work through....you thought the economy would collapse today lol
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The Americans could take out the Crimea bridge. However many megatons that needed. It would send a signal.
And a thousand non-nuke cruise missiles targeting Russia's hydrocarbons industry. That would keep the rest of OPEC sweet at least.
To be honest, I'm surprised the Ukrainians haven't taken out the Crimea bridge already. Couple of bombs in the right place; end of story!
But that leaves a pile of Russians on the wrong (Crimea) side of the bridge. It's best to give a bit of warning and inventive first before destroying it.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
We’re back to 80s deterrent theory. You don’t have to respond to a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine with nukes. In fact it’s best not to because that’s the road to the end of the world.
You respond in a different way, conventionally and directly against his interests (sink a warship, down some satellites, bomb his C3). It’s an escalation but not nuclear, and leaves nuclear escalation with the Russians.
What matters is that any such move is a united one and, post Biden comments, actually happens.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
The Chancellor say we are sticking to the growth Plan, and of course as we all know, there's no F in Plan.
All I want is for someone to ask a single quesiton
We've had low Corporation tax rates since 2010. During that time our growth has been terrible. So what has changed that means keeping the same rates in 2023 will suddenly kick start growth instead of continuing short term profiteering...
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
'' US Mortgage rates soar to 6.70%, highest since 2007''
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The counter to this is - how many retired CIA guys did they ask that wouldn't suggest Putin will go nuclear?
I see your point, but that guy is sane and eloquent and apparently well-informed, and TBH, he looks fucking scared, doesn't he?
It reminds me eerily of an interview, very early in Covid, which was prescient, and had a terrified-looking but sober financial guy saying "this is a terrible thing" - and I knew then that we were def fucked
I'll try and find it
Very, very early in Covid one of my wife's business contacts got his family out of Hong Kong and sent them to rural Malaysia. He told her "This thing will kill a million people".
On September 5th I wrote - "The single most important thing Liz Truss needs to do is win market confidence. We're currently seeing what happens when a nation has lost credibility, interest rates rising, currency through the floor. She needs to have a "whatever it takes" moment tomorrow about combating inflation, ensuring energy prices stay down over the next two years and stepping up investment. All of this will mean hundreds of billions in borrowing over the next 3-4 years without monetary backing. Right now the biggest government fear has got to be bond investors going on strike and yields surging.
Having a very clear 5 year plan to permanently fix energy prices is the only way forwards. Any temporary measures will just make things worse.
Hopefully Liz is headstrong enough to tell the civil service to get fucked and pushes ahead with planning reform, investment reform and decoupling electricity and gas prices."
And instead we got £45bn in unfunded tax cuts, bond investors going on strike and nothing on investing in energy or energy market reforms, just a 6 month at a time expensive plaster.
What a fucking shambles this lot have turned out to be.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
More of a John Major:
'When your back's against the wall, it's time to turn round and fight.'
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
It's one thing to say that growth can be painful, it's another to say that all pain is growthful.
Those of you trying to spin the current moment as a positive, I dread to think what would need to occur for you to think “Well, okay, maybe they’ve got this wrong”
A simple question of “How would this be reacted to if Labour PM X presided over this” is a healthy thought experiment for judging all this.
And FWIW I think the diagnosis of @BartholomewRoberts and others that successive govs have been kicking the can down the road on long-term planning is spot on! Indeed, that was a central point of Starmer’s speech. It’s the prescribed remedy where the difference of opinion lies.
IMO it’s not enough to say that “We’ve had low growth for ages, and roughly the same tax rates, so clearly the answer lies with changing that”. The same could be said of any number of things that have not been in place since 2010.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
The thing is, we are at war. We are heading for tough times and we must all sacrifice and pull together to come through it. And the government thought that *this* was the moment to give the richest people in the country a tax cut. It would be like Churchill calling for Blood, Sweat and Tears and a tax cut for the rich. This is why they will lose the next election by a significant margin. There is no way back from that kind of mistake.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The counter to this is - how many retired CIA guys did they ask that wouldn't suggest Putin will go nuclear?
I see your point, but that guy is sane and eloquent and apparently well-informed, and TBH, he looks fucking scared, doesn't he?
It reminds me eerily of an interview, very early in Covid, which was prescient, and had a terrified-looking but sober financial guy saying "this is a terrible thing" - and I knew then that we were def fucked
I'll try and find it
Very, very early in Covid one of my wife's business contacts got his family out of Hong Kong and sent them to rural Malaysia. He told her "This thing will kill a million people".
If only it were so few.
Yes. I've learned to study the reactions of people close to an event, sometimes more than the event itself. See how they behave, check not just what they say, but also watch their body language (that's much harder to hide or fake)
That CIA dude looks seriously discomfited and shit-scared of a nuke. Especially right at the end of the interview
Ditto the finance guy asked about Covid early in 2020. Personally scared, and he was right to be, as it turned out
This is one reason I am intrigued by the UFO thing (which I accept seems mad to many on here)/. The Americans are reacting ODDLY. Something is up. God knows what
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
Indeed.
Truss’s only hope, essentially, is Putin dying or similar, the world suddenly massively picking up, and someone being able to claim credit for it.
The thing is, I don’t think the public will buy that as much as they might have if Johnson will still around. Boris made such a point of hanging around with Zelensky, trying to go for the whole Churchill comparison, that I think he might have enjoyed a much sharper bounce were he still PM for such a victory.
Of course, an improvement in living standards alone, given the Tories’ very strong electoral position, might still be enough to keep them in Government! But Truss is running out of routes.
The Chancellor say we are sticking to the growth Plan, and of course as we all know, there's no F in Plan.
All I want is for someone to ask a single quesiton
We've had low Corporation tax rates since 2010. During that time our growth has been terrible. So what has changed that means keeping the same rates in 2023 will suddenly kick start growth instead of continuing short term profiteering...
You know how some countries have an economy defined by one sector? It might be forestry, or tourism or oil. That sort of thing.
The UK economy increasingly looks like it is defined by short term profiteering, we're apparently incapable of anything else. So encouraging profiteering is the only way to make the GDP grow in time for an election.
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
On September 5th I wrote - "The single most important thing Liz Truss needs to do is win market confidence. We're currently seeing what happens when a nation has lost credibility, interest rates rising, currency through the floor. She needs to have a "whatever it takes" moment tomorrow about combating inflation, ensuring energy prices stay down over the next two years and stepping up investment. All of this will mean hundreds of billions in borrowing over the next 3-4 years without monetary backing. Right now the biggest government fear has got to be bond investors going on strike and yields surging.
Having a very clear 5 year plan to permanently fix energy prices is the only way forwards. Any temporary measures will just make things worse.
Hopefully Liz is headstrong enough to tell the civil service to get fucked and pushes ahead with planning reform, investment reform and decoupling electricity and gas prices."
And instead we got £45bn in unfunded tax cuts, bond investors going on strike and nothing on investing in energy or energy market reforms, just a 6 month at a time expensive plaster.
What a fucking shambles this lot have turned out to be.
Fuck the economy then run off home for their tea ...
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Nobody dies of old age though. They die in old age. And her grandad died of a cocaine overdose.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
While we're on Conspiracy Theory Thursday, has anyone else noticed that her father is listed as "Albert Frederick Arthur George Windsor King George VI (deceased)" and her mother "Elizabeth Angela Marguerite Bowes-Lyon (ms) or Windsor Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother (deceased)", but her spouse is only listed as "His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh"?
Could it be that Philip is not, in fact, deceased, but is covertly directing operations from behind the throne? Was it in fact Philip who blew up the pipeline?
I'd kind of say the opposite, Mike. Labour majority is only 2.9 now and is approaching being value the other way - as a lay.
I tend to agree, the more the labour price for an overall majority gets shorter, the more I am looking to lay, Starmer will have pulled of a nigh on miracle just to get a majority of 1
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
I was thinking about this earlier. To what degree did Churchill see his various quips and witticisms to be actual life advice or simply just good soundbites for stirring moral? Like if Truss brought him back to receive his counsel on her current difficulties and she ends with 'But if you're going through hell, keep going, right?' Would Churchill, after telling her to get back on the gold standard, chuckle softly and tell her 'Too right' or would he splutter and say 'WTF, you're mental, the press and city are making a fucking meal of you!'
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Opium and dubonnet surely?
"And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release."
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere over the last couple of days correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because contagion from our British screw-up was not only going into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US and other Western government bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
More to the point, there's only one actor which has spent the last year threatening, and carrying out unprovoked military attacks on civilian infrastructure, including multiple energy assets, and continues to issue threats of all kinds, including nuclear towards Europe without apparent regard for the consequences.
On the other hand, we have the US administration which has been scrupulous in avoiding any direct military engagement with Russia.
It not impossible, of course, but it requires an energetic exercise of the imagination to say that the latter is even nearly as likely as the former to have blown up the pipelines. @Leon is definitely the go to guy for that.
Kwasi Kwarteng comments on the suggestion by his junior Treasury Secretary Chris Philp that the UK may not hike benefits in line with the rising inflation.
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The central premise of the hawks in the Kremlin clearly seems to be that the West is weak. We have no stomach for conflict. Russia only has to be brutal and vicious enough to get us to back off.
I was wondering this morning whether a pre-emtive tactical nuclear strike, perhaps on a Russian military base, might be a tactic.
Putin should be in no doubt that should it come to it, we will pull them pistols. We will reduce Russia's cities to ashes.
No. Firstly it would be Wrong. Secondly, it's not necessary.
NATO is sufficiently strong that we can respond to any use of a small nuke by conventional means and do a lot more damage to the Russian military than they will achieve with their nukes to the Ukrainian military. We might even be able to prevent their use.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Nobody dies of old age though. They die in old age. And her grandad died of a cocaine overdose.
Strictly speaking he died of a morphine and cocaine double dose.
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Surpassingly good point made by I think @Beibheirli_C that there's a uge asymmetry here. For the Americans it's a major SEAL operation with minisubs and launch vessels and such in a heavily policed bit of sea, but if you control an end of the tunnel you can just lob a couple of grenades in.
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
There seems to be this mortgages-pensions-bonds-derivatives issue, though.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
I was thinking about this earlier. To what degree did Churchill see his various quips and witticisms to be actual life advice or simply just good soundbites for stirring moral? Like if Truss brought him back to receive his counsel on her current difficulties and she ends with 'But if you're going through hell, keep going, right?' Would Churchill, after telling her to get back on the gold standard, chuckle softly and tell her 'Too right' or would he splutter and say 'WTF, you're mental, the press and city are making a fucking meal of you!'
Neither. He’d be too busy telling her to get stuck in to Russia and would keep his best advice for Davey so he could reanimate his beloved liberals (though he’d have an issue with the SDLP imports).
Looks like the TSC chair is putting the pressure on the chancellor to bring forward the date of his fiscal event. If OBR can do a forecast by end of Oct, why wait to Nov 23 ?? https://twitter.com/MelJStride/status/1575494060432760832
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
There seems to be this mortgages-pensions-bonds-derivatives issue, though.
There are loads of flashpoints. US housing market is in freefall. Its a pillar of salt out there. We provoked a flashpoint, yes, but the underlying catastrophic weakness remains. 12 years of criminal central bank behaviours coming home to roost
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
Yes. As first impressions go, Truss and Kwarteng's start is one for the text books it's so bad. Any future successes, let alone failures, will be interpreted through its prism.
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
If you got PR through you can't really immediately have another election - it wouldn't be practical to organise one quickly.
The best bet if Labour gets 280/300 seats is to turn round and say - we need a proper majority so I'm going to call a second election and if you want a sane Government vote Labour....
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
I continue to think that a Labour Party on the way up will rediscover reasons to dislike PR.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
We’re back to 80s deterrent theory. You don’t have to respond to a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine with nukes. In fact it’s best not to because that’s the road to the end of the world.
You respond in a different way, conventionally and directly against his interests (sink a warship, down some satellites, bomb his C3). It’s an escalation but not nuclear, and leaves nuclear escalation with the Russians.
What matters is that any such move is a united one and, post Biden comments, actually happens.
What I hope and expect is the USA has non nuclear kit which makes vlad's battlefield nukes look like water pistols, and uses that. Extra marks for reducing his black sea retirement Palace to rubble with them.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Surpassingly good point made by I think @Beibheirli_C that there's a uge asymmetry here. For the Americans it's a major SEAL operation with minisubs and launch vessels and such in a heavily policed bit of sea, but if you control an end of the tunnel you can just lob a couple of grenades in.
Tho this could be filed under "Awks":
"BALTIC SEA — A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Public Affairs said June 14.
In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
also the usa benefits as it takes off the table germany capitulating to putin to get cheap gas
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
I continue to think that a Labour Party on the way up will rediscover reasons to dislike PR.
Whereas a Tory party in the low 20s will be converts
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Nobody dies of old age though. They die in old age. And her grandad died of a cocaine overdose.
Strictly speaking he died of a morphine and cocaine double dose.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The central premise of the hawks in the Kremlin clearly seems to be that the West is weak. We have no stomach for conflict. Russia only has to be brutal and vicious enough to get us to back off.
I was wondering this morning whether a pre-emtive tactical nuclear strike, perhaps on a Russian military base, might be a tactic.
Putin should be in no doubt that should it come to it, we will pull them pistols. We will reduce Russia's cities to ashes.
No. Firstly it would be Wrong. Secondly, it's not necessary.
NATO is sufficiently strong that we can respond to any use of a small nuke by conventional means and do a lot more damage to the Russian military than they will achieve with their nukes to the Ukrainian military. We might even be able to prevent their use.
If Putin does use nukes (still unconvinced), then I hope we would see swift and brutal reaction from the whole international community. The way to deal with such a flagrant breach of international norms is not to put the onus on NATO to retaliate, but show that the whole world will not stand for it. Throw them out of all international organisations. Freeze all financial dealings. Make them a pariah and hermit kingdom.
That seems to me far more effective. But will require efforts to bring China and India on side.
🚨 The IEA and @the_tpa are delighted to announce that we will be hosting Chancellor of the Exchequer, @KwasiKwarteng, for an In Conversation at this year's Conservative Party Conference!
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
If you got PR through you can't really immediately have another election - it wouldn't be practical to organise one quickly.
The best bet if Labour gets 280/300 seats is to turn round and say - we need a proper majority so I'm going to call a second election and if you want a sane Government vote Labour....
The latter without electoral reform could very well lend itself to the Tories who, after changing leaders, could very easily say, “See? Labour can’t ever form a Government - only we can.”
In fact the above scenario is almost a dream one for Boris wanting to return post-Truss, claiming only he is popular enough to unite the country.
Thus instead, it’s better for them to do PR, and scratch my initial use of ‘immediately’ for ‘as soon as can be done’. I don’t think a Lab+Lib C+S would collapse imminently but if the SNP were involved it might.
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
I continue to think that a Labour Party on the way up will rediscover reasons to dislike PR.
Oh yeah if Starmer heads for Blair territory it’s very difficult to see him suddenly wanting it
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
Here's an idea. You like travel. Put on your fucking Speedos, jump in, and go and have a look at the fucking pipeline for yourself. Take your time, make sure you have all the salient facts, and tell us what you find when you come back.
Best just to assume that Leon the epileptic canary is simply wrong, again.
OK so what is the null hypothesis here, the equivalent of Of course it was a bat sold in the market, which Leon is perversely refusing to accept? Cos it looks like a completely batshit thing for anyone to have done.
I like your repetition of bat/batshit there. Anyway... the null hypothesis is that Leon is a racist who regularly spouts Trumpian fantasies. We all know this. Why bother engaging with his wurblings?
If you're still at the stage you think "Lab Leak" is a "Trumpian fantasy" then there isn't much hope for you.
I mean, Jesus FC: aren't you an academic?! The depths of this pure, boneheaded, incurious stupidity, revealed in the last few years, are quite something.
Lab Leak has a decent chance of being true but you're arguing against yourself in using this to say Biden/Pipeline is therefore also likely true.
A theory espoused by Trump/MAGA that turns out to be (even maybe) true is objectively a very rare event. Maybe 1 in a 1000. And we've had that 1. Which puts Biden/Pipeline full square in the 999. Bound to be nonsense.
I've hoisted you by your own petard there, see? But I'll put you down now since I don't want to cause an injury.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 15m Kwarteng on Sky just now committed to pensions triple lock but wouldn't commit to uprating benefits by inflation
Why is this surprising anyone? Of course there’s a high chance of the Tories using the smokescreen of inflation for real terms benefit cuts. See the whole Cameron/Osborne era for evidence of Tory views about those on benefits.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
Here's an idea. You like travel. Put on your fucking Speedos, jump in, and go and have a look at the fucking pipeline for yourself. Take your time, make sure you have all the salient facts, and tell us what you find when you come back.
Best just to assume that Leon the epileptic canary is simply wrong, again.
OK so what is the null hypothesis here, the equivalent of Of course it was a bat sold in the market, which Leon is perversely refusing to accept? Cos it looks like a completely batshit thing for anyone to have done.
I like your repetition of bat/batshit there. Anyway... the null hypothesis is that Leon is a racist who regularly spouts Trumpian fantasies. We all know this. Why bother engaging with his wurblings?
If you're still at the stage you think "Lab Leak" is a "Trumpian fantasy" then there isn't much hope for you.
I mean, Jesus FC: aren't you an academic?! The depths of this pure, boneheaded, incurious stupidity, revealed in the last few years, are quite something.
Lab Leak has a decent chance of being true but you're arguing against yourself in using this to say Biden/Pipeline is therefore also likely true.
A theory espoused by Trump/MAGA that turns out to be (even maybe) true is objectively a very rare event. Maybe 1 in a 1000. And we've had that 1. Which puts Biden/Pipeline full square in the 999. Bound to be nonsense.
I've hoisted you by your own petard there, see? But I'll put you down now since I don't want to cause an injury.
The Hunter Biden laptop thing also turned out to be true, I believe? (tho I don't actually understand any of it as Trumpian conspiracies generally bore me, believe it or not)
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The central premise of the hawks in the Kremlin clearly seems to be that the West is weak. We have no stomach for conflict. Russia only has to be brutal and vicious enough to get us to back off.
I was wondering this morning whether a pre-emtive tactical nuclear strike, perhaps on a Russian military base, might be a tactic.
Putin should be in no doubt that should it come to it, we will pull them pistols. We will reduce Russia's cities to ashes.
No. Firstly it would be Wrong. Secondly, it's not necessary.
NATO is sufficiently strong that we can respond to any use of a small nuke by conventional means and do a lot more damage to the Russian military than they will achieve with their nukes to the Ukrainian military. We might even be able to prevent their use.
If Putin does use nukes (still unconvinced), then I hope we would see swift and brutal reaction from the whole international community. The way to deal with such a flagrant breach of international norms is not to put the onus on NATO to retaliate, but show that the whole world will not stand for it. Throw them out of all international organisations. Freeze all financial dealings. Make them a pariah and hermit kingdom.
That seems to me far more effective. But will require efforts to bring China and India on side.
China is absolutely key. If Putin uses nukes, Taiwan will want to develop their own, as clearly a taboo has been breached and there is no way back. China will not want that.
Ru should be removed from UN security council immediately and lose their precious bloody veto.
And that's before US destroys a number of key military installations in Russia including killing chain of command so they get the message: you allow him to use another, they you are all our direct targets now.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
If you got PR through you can't really immediately have another election - it wouldn't be practical to organise one quickly.
The best bet if Labour gets 280/300 seats is to turn round and say - we need a proper majority so I'm going to call a second election and if you want a sane Government vote Labour....
It would take years to set up PR, unless AV was used. The second election route would come, i think, after 6 months of 'sense and sensibility', an immediate one and the voters go full Brenda
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
🚨 The IEA and @the_tpa are delighted to announce that we will be hosting Chancellor of the Exchequer, @KwasiKwarteng, for an In Conversation at this year's Conservative Party Conference!
🖥️ Tune in on Tuesday 4th October here!👇
Preview
I've evacuated constantly at the effects of his triumph. Does that count?
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
More of a John Major:
'When your back's against the wall, it's time to turn round and fight.'
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
Here's an idea. You like travel. Put on your fucking Speedos, jump in, and go and have a look at the fucking pipeline for yourself. Take your time, make sure you have all the salient facts, and tell us what you find when you come back.
I am a Bringer of Truth and Light
It's going to end up being some idiotic Swedish trawler. One of Stuart's mates.
People are overestimating the technology requirement.
A pipeline is just a pipe. A few sticks of dynamite with an old fashioned burning fuse will blow a hole in it.
Ah, but it’s underwater to they cry.
Well underwater explosions were demonstrated centuries ago. The pipeline is carefully and publicly mapped.
In theory, a bloke on a trawler could use a grapple to find the pipeline and slide a scuba tank filled with commercial explosives down the line. 19th cent tech really. Look up the crazy stuff they did laying transatlantic cables in *miles* of water.
One tech level up, buy a commercial ROV to drop off your bundle of fun next to the pipeline.
Using the USS Jimmy Carter isn’t necessary for this.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Nobody dies of old age though. They die in old age. And her grandad died of a cocaine overdose.
Strictly speaking he died of a morphine and cocaine double dose.
Fucking good way to go, TBF
I have probably said this before but one of the most twattish things about Scott of the A was he died in a tent with literally pounds of BP grade morphine and cocaine (local anaesthetic for snow blindness) but lay there for days to die of cold and thirst instead of using them.
3) Truss wanted to answer every question about the energy package for which she has derived almost no political credit. And that's because she changed the conversation by having the tax cuts along side it. It's too late to change it back.
Perceived (and indeed actual) incoherence is her problem everywhere right now. With voters on relationship between energy package, tax cuts, inflation and mortgage rates and with the markets which, do not buy the idea of fiscal policy and monetary policy working so at odds.
For her own political sake (and for our economic one) Truss needs better answers to this incoherence and these questions and quickly. And she’ll have to do it whilst not being able to do much about problem (1) something she herself as acknowledged and attempted to make an asset.
Wrong. Truss wanted to answer every question about the energy package because the economic advisors around her and in treasury now wish to lead that “goat of a package” up the hill for a sacrificial ”haircut” - she is currently resisting that must happen leaving her with a smaller more complicated package to own.
But the market and IMF hath spoken, thems the breaks. As the goat makes up 88.04% the cost of the shopping trolley we tried to check out but had our credit declined, that goat is getting a haircut. Soon enough. Watch this space.
Think of the goat as a cucumber, getting cut in half as we didn’t really need the whole cucumber.
An intriguing analogy but anyone with a fridge knows only too well what will happen to the other half of the cucumber.
Lasts overnight fine in my fridge.
If you prefer, think of the goat as a cucumber getting half cut. In truth though, it’s not a cucumber it’s a goat, and the goat doesn’t get cut in half, it gets a hair cut: to give the proper fiscal term of the action on the goat.
It’s all perfectly clear to me a) what happened b) what happens next. Shaggy goat 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out but had our credit declined, so a) goat too hairy b) give hairy goat hair cut.
Anyone thinking I am taking it down rabbit holes or missing the point cause I don’t post hyperbolic abuse of Truss and Kwarteng every five minutes are just going to have to come to this party late.
Sterling is edging towards $1.10 today. The gilt market rates are edging up again but more in line with similar moves in Europe than on Wednesday morning. In short the "crisis" that filled the BBC news programs seems to have gone back to a gentle simmer and those headlines look more than a tad overdone.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
There's only one way that mortgage rates are going - up. There's only one thing going to happen to public spending - way down. The cost of living is going to remain very high. The public realm is going to become more degraded. The long-term implications of this week, whatever happens in the markets now, is that the government will own all of it entirely. It's only get out of jail card is sharp, sustained growth within the next two years that people can feel. It's possible. I am not sure it is very likely.
I think that the events of the past few days have had sufficient cut-through in the news, even for people who normally don't pay too much attention, that the narrative is now set and will be impossible for the government to reverse, We all know that tough times are ahead: we've hardly started on the impact of higher energy prices yet, and mortgages haven't yet gone up, and the big upcoming cuts to public spending aren't yet in the mix. Because the narrative is now set, all of this bad news, even in the cases caused by external factors, are going to be seen by voters as the result of government failure or, even worse, deliberate policy.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
I would agree with this assessment and it’s been particularly striking to see how many WhatsApp messages I’ve got from friends and family members who aren’t normally politically engaged - and to my mind lean centre-right - saying extremely anti-Government things at the moment.
It is true that the Tories are now screwed UNLESS they are able to say “see, it worked” inside a year. Hence she has to double down from her perspective. She will also massively boost her “strong leader” position.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
More of a John Major:
'When your back's against the wall, it's time to turn round and fight.'
Why would you want to fight the wall?
That was sort of the point...
He meant, when you're cornered, and can't run any more, you should stand and fight. But he got his metaphors mixed.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
Quick everyone, buy loo rolls like it’s spring 2020.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
No. She should stockpile July mornings. Better weather.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
Quick everyone, buy loo rolls like it’s spring 2020.
DPD 1 hour delivery delivered 72 loo rolls earlier today (think it cost £20 for the lot)
Amazon seemed to decide it was cheaper to use DPD then put them into an Amazon delivery van.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
Quick everyone, buy loo rolls like it’s spring 2020.
There’s also, funnily, the nightmare scenario of something like
Labour: 280-300 Con: 270-280 LD: 20-30 SNP: 50+
(I might have butchered the numbers slightly but you get the point)
Starmer and Davey decide to push for PR and a new election as they have a very narrow C+S.
To stop them from losing the disadvantage of FPTP, the new Tory leader (eg: Badenoch) gambles on a deal with the SNP. She thinks risking the union is bad, but risking losing the next few elections for a generation is worse. They will get IndyRef2 in exchange for voting to bring down the Government. 1979 all over again.
Many SNP MPs are very nervous about the deal with the Tories, but are convinced by it because they see it as the only path to IndyRef2, and aren’t worried about it harming their electoral chances because as far as they’re convinced, they may have had their last Westminster election anyway.
I believe under Parliamentary conventions, if Starmer subsequently asked King Charles to dissolve Parliament for an election (before PR can pass, so under the old rules), but Kemi believes she can form a Gov with the SNP, then it would stop an election?
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Ftse 250 off by 3.6% BTW, serious crash territory.
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
There seems to be this mortgages-pensions-bonds-derivatives issue, though.
There are loads of flashpoints. US housing market is in freefall. Its a pillar of salt out there. We provoked a flashpoint, yes, but the underlying catastrophic weakness remains. 12 years of criminal central bank behaviours coming home to roost
Comments
It reminds me eerily of an interview, very early in Covid, which was prescient, and had a terrified-looking but sober financial guy saying "this is a terrible thing" - and I knew then that we were def fucked
I'll try and find it
The answer is, none, because angels don't dance on the head of pins.
Can we now get back to conspiracy theories around Putin not being madder than a box of frogs multiplied by Susan Michie?
uk gilt yields up 4.45%
these things take time to work through....you thought the economy would collapse today lol
You respond in a different way, conventionally and directly against his interests (sink a warship, down some satellites, bomb his C3). It’s an escalation but not nuclear, and leaves nuclear escalation with the Russians.
What matters is that any such move is a united one and, post Biden comments, actually happens.
We've had low Corporation tax rates since 2010. During that time our growth has been terrible. So what has changed that means keeping the same rates in 2023 will suddenly kick start growth instead of continuing short term profiteering...
If only it were so few.
Having a very clear 5 year plan to permanently fix energy prices is the only way forwards. Any temporary measures will just make things worse.
Hopefully Liz is headstrong enough to tell the civil service to get fucked and pushes ahead with planning reform, investment reform and decoupling electricity and gas prices."
And instead we got £45bn in unfunded tax cuts, bond investors going on strike and nothing on investing in energy or energy market reforms, just a 6 month at a time expensive plaster.
What a fucking shambles this lot have turned out to be.
“If you are going through hell, keep going”.
'When your back's against the wall, it's time to turn round and fight.'
A simple question of “How would this be reacted to if Labour PM X presided over this” is a healthy thought experiment for judging all this.
And FWIW I think the diagnosis of @BartholomewRoberts and others that successive govs have been kicking the can down the road on long-term planning is spot on! Indeed, that was a central point of Starmer’s speech. It’s the prescribed remedy where the difference of opinion lies.
IMO it’s not enough to say that “We’ve had low growth for ages, and roughly the same tax rates, so clearly the answer lies with changing that”. The same could be said of any number of things that have not been in place since 2010.
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages
- Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal
- Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
This is why they will lose the next election by a significant margin. There is no way back from that kind of mistake.
That CIA dude looks seriously discomfited and shit-scared of a nuke. Especially right at the end of the interview
Ditto the finance guy asked about Covid early in 2020. Personally scared, and he was right to be, as it turned out
This is one reason I am intrigued by the UFO thing (which I accept seems mad to many on here)/. The Americans are reacting ODDLY. Something is up. God knows what
Truss’s only hope, essentially, is Putin dying or similar, the world suddenly massively picking up, and someone being able to claim credit for it.
The thing is, I don’t think the public will buy that as much as they might have if Johnson will still around. Boris made such a point of hanging around with Zelensky, trying to go for the whole Churchill comparison, that I think he might have enjoyed a much sharper bounce were he still PM for such a victory.
Of course, an improvement in living standards alone, given the Tories’ very strong electoral position, might still be enough to keep them in Government! But Truss is running out of routes.
The UK economy increasingly looks like it is defined by short term profiteering, we're apparently incapable of anything else. So encouraging profiteering is the only way to make the GDP grow in time for an election.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
The price I have it laid, as it happens. "Even the best of us etc ..."
We all know she preferred gin.
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
Grinning spaniels civilly delight
To mumble at the game they dare not bite
I do have some 5 though
Could it be that Philip is not, in fact, deceased, but is covertly directing operations from behind the throne? Was it in fact Philip who blew up the pipeline?
Italy is the next domino BTW
Like if Truss brought him back to receive his counsel on her current difficulties and she ends with 'But if you're going through hell, keep going, right?' Would Churchill, after telling her to get back on the gold standard, chuckle softly and tell her 'Too right' or would he splutter and say 'WTF, you're mental, the press and city are making a fucking meal of you!'
Really?
On the other hand, we have the US administration which has been scrupulous in avoiding any direct military engagement with Russia.
It not impossible, of course, but it requires an energetic exercise of the imagination to say that the latter is even nearly as likely as the former to have blown up the pipelines.
@Leon is definitely the go to guy for that.
"We are talking about helping people in the round. It's premature of me to come to a decision about that" Kwarteng says
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1575496003406659584
NATO is sufficiently strong that we can respond to any use of a small nuke by conventional means and do a lot more damage to the Russian military than they will achieve with their nukes to the Ukrainian military. We might even be able to prevent their use.
“We’re working at pace to align your spending policy to show the markets there is a clear plan”
“We need your support. I’m always available for a meeting” https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1575495866701721600/photo/1
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
Extraordinary number.
12 years of criminal central bank behaviours coming home to roost
The next election is now Labour's to lose.
The best bet if Labour gets 280/300 seats is to turn round and say - we need a proper majority so I'm going to call a second election and if you want a sane Government vote Labour....
"BALTIC SEA — A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Public Affairs said June 14.
In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.
Experimentation was conducted..."
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
That seems to me far more effective. But will require efforts to bring China and India on side.
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
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Kwarteng on Sky just now committed to pensions triple lock but wouldn't commit to uprating benefits by inflation
In fact the above scenario is almost a dream one for Boris wanting to return post-Truss, claiming only he is popular enough to unite the country.
Thus instead, it’s better for them to do PR, and scratch my initial use of ‘immediately’ for ‘as soon as can be done’. I don’t think a Lab+Lib C+S would collapse imminently but if the SNP were involved it might.
A theory espoused by Trump/MAGA that turns out to be (even maybe) true is objectively a very rare event. Maybe 1 in a 1000. And we've had that 1. Which puts Biden/Pipeline full square in the 999. Bound to be nonsense.
I've hoisted you by your own petard there, see? But I'll put you down now since I don't want to cause an injury.
Pensioners on the other hand do vote, and won't vote Conservative unless we give them their promised sweeties
Ru should be removed from UN security council immediately and lose their precious bloody veto.
And that's before US destroys a number of key military installations in Russia including killing chain of command so they get the message: you allow him to use another, they you are all our direct targets now.
Everyone should hear this. ~AA https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1575500470768242689/video/1
The second election route would come, i think, after 6 months of 'sense and sensibility', an immediate one and the voters go full Brenda
A pipeline is just a pipe. A few sticks of dynamite with an old fashioned burning fuse will blow a hole in it.
Ah, but it’s underwater to they cry.
Well underwater explosions were demonstrated centuries ago. The pipeline is carefully and publicly mapped.
In theory, a bloke on a trawler could use a grapple to find the pipeline and slide a scuba tank filled with commercial explosives down the line. 19th cent tech really. Look up the crazy stuff they did laying transatlantic cables in *miles* of water.
One tech level up, buy a commercial ROV to drop off your bundle of fun next to the pipeline.
Using the USS Jimmy Carter isn’t necessary for this.
If you prefer, think of the goat as a cucumber getting half cut. In truth though, it’s not a cucumber it’s a goat, and the goat doesn’t get cut in half, it gets a hair cut: to give the proper fiscal term of the action on the goat.
It’s all perfectly clear to me a) what happened b) what happens next. Shaggy goat 88.04% the cost of the shopping basket we tried to check out but had our credit declined, so a) goat too hairy b) give hairy goat hair cut.
Anyone thinking I am taking it down rabbit holes or missing the point cause I don’t post hyperbolic abuse of Truss and Kwarteng every five minutes are just going to have to come to this party late.
He meant, when you're cornered, and can't run any more, you should stand and fight. But he got his metaphors mixed.
Amazon seemed to decide it was cheaper to use DPD then put them into an Amazon delivery van.
Across the country this morning, people had a lot of questions for her.
She didn’t have any answers. https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1575493918812434436/video/1
Labour: 280-300
Con: 270-280
LD: 20-30
SNP: 50+
(I might have butchered the numbers slightly but you get the point)
Starmer and Davey decide to push for PR and a new election as they have a very narrow C+S.
To stop them from losing the disadvantage of FPTP, the new Tory leader (eg: Badenoch) gambles on a deal with the SNP. She thinks risking the union is bad, but risking losing the next few elections for a generation is worse. They will get IndyRef2 in exchange for voting to bring down the Government. 1979 all over again.
Many SNP MPs are very nervous about the deal with the Tories, but are convinced by it because they see it as the only path to IndyRef2, and aren’t worried about it harming their electoral chances because as far as they’re convinced, they may have had their last Westminster election anyway.
I believe under Parliamentary conventions, if Starmer subsequently asked King Charles to dissolve Parliament for an election (before PR can pass, so under the old rules), but Kemi believes she can form a Gov with the SNP, then it would stop an election?
As is my want, I was perusing Lawson's The View From Number Eleven, and came across this paragraph very early on: