fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Really? That said. I chucked 2/3 of my pension investments into US and far east securities about ten years ago so who am I to judge?
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Ftse 250 off by 3.6% BTW, serious crash territory.
i would advise you to move your funds out of GBP..preferably move them offshore to a more stable jurisdiction
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
One thing we learned from Covid is that a large share of the public believes the scaremongering that passes for TV news these days.
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
There seems to be this mortgages-pensions-bonds-derivatives issue, though.
There are loads of flashpoints. US housing market is in freefall. Its a pillar of salt out there. We provoked a flashpoint, yes, but the underlying catastrophic weakness remains. 12 years of criminal central bank behaviours coming home to roost
No. One week of Tory lunacy.
The immediate crisis here, yes. The absolute shit show out there that is ongoing, not so much Kwasis budget didnt push German inflation to 10%, force Japan to defend the Yen last week, crash the American housing market or force the Euro to lose nearly 20% versus the dollar
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
Meddling with pensions is electoral dynamite of course, not so sure the same is true of benefits.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
One thing we learned from Covid is that a large share of the public believes the scaremongering that passes for TV news these days.
Yes the news rooms need to take a long look into the mirror and consider in which circumstances they ought to use words like “crisis” or talk about reasonable worst case scenarios as racing certainties.
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
It's also possible that they go for 2 and it does work but this isn't immediately obvious, and the next Labour government reaps the reward for her tough decisions.
Let me know when she makes a tough decision.
Because it seems that so far we've had tax cuts and spending increases.
Here's Nigel Lawson again:
I would point out that the first thing the Conservatives did in 1979 after coming to power was to raise VAT to 15%.
Good to confirm that all the nonsense on here about the Queen already being dead by 12.30 were wrong.
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
What is the confirmation?
The death certificate has been published.
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
I don't think there's been any evidence yet produced that she was on a 20 hour cocaine and vodka bender.
Nobody dies of old age though. They die in old age. And her grandad died of a cocaine overdose.
Strictly speaking he died of a morphine and cocaine double dose.
Fucking good way to go, TBF
I have probably said this before but one of the most twattish things about Scott of the A was he died in a tent with literally pounds of BP grade morphine and cocaine (local anaesthetic for snow blindness) but lay there for days to die of cold and thirst instead of using them.
In my younger days I made several Brompton cocktails as they were called. Mixture of morphine, cocaine, and sometimes diamorphine. Might be sweetened with honey, otherwise brandy or whisky.
Could be a bit hard, making them for friends, or the parents of friends!
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
Here's an idea. You like travel. Put on your fucking Speedos, jump in, and go and have a look at the fucking pipeline for yourself. Take your time, make sure you have all the salient facts, and tell us what you find when you come back.
Best just to assume that Leon the epileptic canary is simply wrong, again.
OK so what is the null hypothesis here, the equivalent of Of course it was a bat sold in the market, which Leon is perversely refusing to accept? Cos it looks like a completely batshit thing for anyone to have done.
I like your repetition of bat/batshit there. Anyway... the null hypothesis is that Leon is a racist who regularly spouts Trumpian fantasies. We all know this. Why bother engaging with his wurblings?
If you're still at the stage you think "Lab Leak" is a "Trumpian fantasy" then there isn't much hope for you.
I mean, Jesus FC: aren't you an academic?! The depths of this pure, boneheaded, incurious stupidity, revealed in the last few years, are quite something.
Lab Leak has a decent chance of being true but you're arguing against yourself in using this to say Biden/Pipeline is therefore also likely true.
A theory espoused by Trump/MAGA that turns out to be (even maybe) true is objectively a very rare event. Maybe 1 in a 1000. And we've had that 1. Which puts Biden/Pipeline full square in the 999. Bound to be nonsense.
I've hoisted you by your own petard there, see? But I'll put you down now since I don't want to cause an injury.
The Hunter Biden laptop thing also turned out to be true, I believe? (tho I don't actually understand any of it as Trumpian conspiracies generally bore me, believe it or not).
Something in common there then. I have yet to summon the will to look into the tale of "Hunter Biden's laptop" but if I did I pretty much know the Trump/MAGA take on it would prove to be mainly tosherooni
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Ftse 250 off by 3.6% BTW, serious crash territory.
i would advise you to move your funds out of GBP..preferably move them offshore to a more stable jurisdiction
That’s nonsense - and on a well read blog it’s dangerous nonsense on the off chance someone thinks you know the score.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
The counter to this is - how many retired CIA guys did they ask that wouldn't suggest Putin will go nuclear?
I see your point, but that guy is sane and eloquent and apparently well-informed, and TBH, he looks fucking scared, doesn't he?
It reminds me eerily of an interview, very early in Covid, which was prescient, and had a terrified-looking but sober financial guy saying "this is a terrible thing" - and I knew then that we were def fucked
I'll try and find it
Very, very early in Covid one of my wife's business contacts got his family out of Hong Kong and sent them to rural Malaysia. He told her "This thing will kill a million people".
If only it were so few.
Yes. I've learned to study the reactions of people close to an event, sometimes more than the event itself. See how they behave, check not just what they say, but also watch their body language (that's much harder to hide or fake)
That CIA dude looks seriously discomfited and shit-scared of a nuke. Especially right at the end of the interview
Ditto the finance guy asked about Covid early in 2020. Personally scared, and he was right to be, as it turned out
This is one reason I am intrigued by the UFO thing (which I accept seems mad to many on here)/. The Americans are reacting ODDLY. Something is up. God knows what
America is concerned because if Putin does use nuclear weapons, or blows up a power station, or if he does anything at all, the United States will need to react to it. We don't.
The Prime Minister just has to condemn the latest atrocity, then sit back and wait for America's lead. The President, on the other hand, has to commit American money or American blood.
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
Meddling with pensions is electoral dynamite of course, not so sure the same is true of benefits.
Meddling with benefits is quite popular with people who don't get those benefits.
If I've understood some of the reports from both the leftwing and rightwing twittersphere correctly, Yellen and the US on the one hand, and the IMF on the other, felt no choice but to get involved because of contagion from the Btitish screw-up was not only into the bond but also derivatives market, because of the linkage of the two in the UK via the property and pensions sector. Is this contagion still affecting US bonds and derivatives worldwide ?
The contagion was already there thanks to Fed policy and still is
There seems to be this mortgages-pensions-bonds-derivatives issue, though.
There are loads of flashpoints. US housing market is in freefall. Its a pillar of salt out there. We provoked a flashpoint, yes, but the underlying catastrophic weakness remains. 12 years of criminal central bank behaviours coming home to roost
No. One week of Tory lunacy.
The immediate crisis here, yes. The absolute shit show out there that is ongoing, not so much Kwasis budget didnt push German inflation to 10%, force Japan to defend the Yen last week, crash the American housing market or force the Euro to lose nearly 20% versus the dollar
Yes. it's utterly bonkers to blame all this on the Tories, however inept they are
We are plunging into a global and systemic crisis, in multiple ways. Britain is just one actor on a crowded and scary stage:
"Russia will formally annex four regions of Ukraine its troops occupy at a grand ceremony in Moscow on Friday, the Kremlin has announced, after it suggested using nuclear weapons to defend the territories."
All these people have agendas, but at some point we have to admit: Well, this is really quite possible. They keep saying it will happen, so maybe it will happen
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
Meddling with pensions is electoral dynamite of course, not so sure the same is true of benefits.
Meddling with benefits is quite popular with people who don't get those benefits.
I read somewhere that the employment figures are a bit misleading because covid left us with a huge number of economically inactive adults (More than five million?).
That seems a huge number, I can't believe its true.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
As rates rise, when there’s an FSCS, and absent any signs of a banking crisis? Why?
last night talks about pension funds collapsed could have spooked people....i am now considering moving all my money out of the uk banking system and into us dollars
Ftse 250 off by 3.6% BTW, serious crash territory.
i would advise you to move your funds out of GBP..preferably move them offshore to a more stable jurisdiction
What? I can put them into any number of currencies without exporting them from the UK. I am really not worried about having them confiscated from me for political reasons, this is probably one of the safest jurisdictions in the world from that POV, and if it happens I would rather it happened here on home ground and where I am a qualified lawyer, than somewhere ridiculous like the BVI.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Sounds like the Moon Rabbit take. Not the greatest ever Moon Rabbit take either imo but the PM must have read it on here and said, "Hey, I can do something with that!"
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
The Times came out with the bald assertion. Russia did it. Now? A quiet but definite change of mind, and an article subtly edited
"Update: these claims & quotes (Russia "probably premeditated and planned for" sabotage) have been deleted from the new version of The Times' story, which is a lot more cautious. Original below.
Verdict? Western intelligence agencies and therefore western governments are in little doubt. America did it. But no one will ever say it, and no one will ever "know"
That's good evidence for nothing more than your ability to reason conspiratorially.
And yet, conspiracies do happen. Indeed conspiracies about conspiracies DO happen
Lab Leak is the classic example
Here is the defining paragraph of that seminal letter to the Lancet early in 2020, which managed to close down debate about Covid origins for over a year. Remember Facebook literally banned mere discussion of the theory it might have come from the lab. For a year
"We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife"
All total bollocks. Not only that, lying bollocks. At the end of the letter the authors declare "no conflict of interest", whereas the guy who organised the whole letter and wrote the first draft, Peter Daszak, DID THE VIROLOGICAL WORK AT WUHAN and was co-head of the lab
I mean, what possible conflict of interest could HE have in dismissing the lab leak theory as a "conspiracy theory"?
So that is an actual - and globally significant - example of a conspiracy hidden by allegations of conspiracy. And in this case, curiously, they got it to work by attaching the ideas of trump and alt.right to the very idea of Lab Leak
Which, if you look back, is insane
I am 98% certain the virus came from the lab. I am much less certain who blew up the pipeline, I am tempted to guess America, but it is a wild guess. But people suddenly saying it is an "alt-right conspiracy theory" makes me more suspicious of Washington, not less
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Sounds like the Moon Rabbit take. Not the greatest ever Moon Rabbit take either imo but the PM must have read it on here and said, "Hey, I can do something with that!"
Because if it's the energy cap then the collapse in the markets is justified as the impact of a greater good.
But it's obvious that the energy cap isn't the issue. It was announced before the Queens death and the Business version was announced last Wednesday (from memory). Heck even the NI changes were announced on the Thursday and again there wasn't much of a murmur.
It was the other tax cuts alongside the lack of a OBR statement that created this mess - because and I know it's a broken record...
If 12 years of low Corporation tax has resulted in sod all growth why suddenly in the 13th year will the same low Corporation tax generate masses of Growth...
There’s also, funnily, the nightmare scenario of something like
Labour: 280-300 Con: 270-280 LD: 20-30 SNP: 50+
(I might have butchered the numbers slightly but you get the point)
Starmer and Davey decide to push for PR and a new election as they have a very narrow C+S.
To stop them from losing the disadvantage of FPTP, the new Tory leader (eg: Badenoch) gambles on a deal with the SNP. She thinks risking the union is bad, but risking losing the next few elections for a generation is worse. They will get IndyRef2 in exchange for voting to bring down the Government. 1979 all over again.
Many SNP MPs are very nervous about the deal with the Tories, but are convinced by it because they see it as the only path to IndyRef2, and aren’t worried about it harming their electoral chances because as far as they’re convinced, they may have had their last Westminster election anyway.
I believe under Parliamentary conventions, if Starmer subsequently asked King Charles to dissolve Parliament for an election (before PR can pass, so under the old rules), but Kemi believes she can form a Gov with the SNP, then it would stop an election?
Yes, IMHO. After consulting the cabinet secretary etc the crown would ask Kemi to try to form an administration. As that would be the case, the Lab/LD coalition would not ask for an election in the first place but would form a government and wait for a VONC - or engineer one themselves.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because that was what the IMF complained about?
They never said anything after the energy cap announcement which was made weeks ago . All the drama has happened since the mini budget from last Friday .
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
Well, some of us think that what happened in the 1980s wasn't the best way of doing things.
In the 2020s, we're going to have a recession and then no growth, if we continue with Truss.
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
This is really interesting. Asked if his mini budget is a “major economic disaster” he does not say no. Similarly, asked whether mortgage increases will wipe out the effects of capping energy unit costs he does not say no. https://twitter.com/seanjoneskc/status/1575501516437606407
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
Quick everyone, buy loo rolls like it’s spring 2020.
DPD 1 hour delivery delivered 72 loo rolls earlier today (think it cost £20 for the lot)
Amazon seemed to decide it was cheaper to use DPD then put them into an Amazon delivery van.
My loo roll stash back up to 2540. However, getting slightly worried about paying the mortgage for the second flat I bought to store them in.
New from @IpsosUK: Labour more trusted than the Conservatives to:
- Have the right policies for the GB economy 40% - 33% - Manage Britain's taxes / public spending: 38% - 32% - Reduce you / your family's cost of living: 39% - 28%
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
New from @IpsosUK: Labour more trusted than the Conservatives to:
- Have the right policies for the GB economy 40% - 33% - Manage Britain's taxes / public spending: 38% - 32% - Reduce you / your family's cost of living: 39% - 28%
"The threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against #Ukraine is "very high"
According to a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Vadym Skibitskyy, #Russia may strike along the front line, where there is a large concentration of equipment and personnel."
This is really interesting. Asked if his mini budget is a “major economic disaster” he does not say no. Similarly, asked whether mortgage increases will wipe out the effects of capping energy unit costs he does not say no. https://twitter.com/seanjoneskc/status/1575501516437606407
Mortgage interest increases wipe out energy cost savings
Cost of borrowing in market increase wipes out business tax savings
Unpredictability and irrationality of UK government behaviour decreases business investment
It already hasn't worked and will never work. And accusing the markets, banks, institutions, investors, media and everyone else who says so as being part of a left-wing establishment cabal is bonkers.
They don't release that market confidence is *absolutely part of* the success of your plans because they're the ones who decide whether to freely buy in with their money or not.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because that was what the IMF complained about?
They never said anything after the energy cap announcement which was made weeks ago . All the drama has happened since the mini budget from last Friday .
The statement they made earlier this week complained about the energy help.
I still find it shocking that this Tory government, supposedly conservatives, are doing less to secure energy independence than what Labour are proposing. The Tories are literally just shoving tax revenues and borrowed money at the sector and hoping everything works out and they won't just pay themselves and their shareholders mega dividends.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
You seem to be mad. Provided you keep under the 85,000 ceiling per account you are as well protected as anywhere in the world. And if you turn out not to be, you are a citizen here with an mp and an ombudsman to moan to in your own language.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
I still find it shocking that this Tory government, supposedly conservatives, are doing less to secure energy independence than what Labour are proposing. The Tories are literally just shoving tax revenues and borrowed money at the sector and hoping everything works out and they won't just pay themselves and their shareholders mega dividends.
The most rational thing for investors to do now, actually, is to shovel any extra dividends and profits they get out of the cuts out the pound and out of the country.
Just checked out Cumbria's 5 Tory MPs - four of them in seats that are historically Labour or marginal. None say a word in defence of the Financial Statement, Truss or the CoE, except routine bits and pieces on the merits of free money for energy bills.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
This is really interesting. Asked if his mini budget is a “major economic disaster” he does not say no. Similarly, asked whether mortgage increases will wipe out the effects of capping energy unit costs he does not say no. https://twitter.com/seanjoneskc/status/1575501516437606407
Mortgage interest increases wipe out energy cost savings
Cost of borrowing in market increase wipes out business tax savings
Unpredictability and irrationality of UK government behaviour decreases business investment
It already hasn't worked and will never work. And accusing the markets, banks, institutions, investors, media and everyone else who says so as being part of a left-wing establishment cabal is bonkers.
They don't release that market confidence is *absolutely part of* the success of your plans because they're the ones who decide whether to freely buy in with their money or not.
So in the parallel universe of this site the consensus seem to be that entire U.K. economy is on the verge of collapse and the pound will soon be worth less as currency than as scrap metal in dollars; but it doesn’t really matter because we’re about to die in a nuclear war.
Seriously - calm down. There’s been a market overreaction to a silly policy that will sort itself out, and the real message from what Russia is saying is that it now knows it can’t win.
The message we all should take from this week is that the Ukraine war is nearing the end game, and Starmer really actually might be PM in 2025.
This forum can be very polarized at times but Truss and Kwarteng seemed to have brought people together ! Remain , Leave, left, right I do sense there’s a strong majority who are very concerned at what’s going on.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
You seem to be mad. Provided you keep under the 85,000 ceiling per account you are as well protected as anywhere in the world. And if you turn out not to be, you are a citizen here with an mp and an ombudsman to moan to in your own language.
if the country were to be suddenly insolvent how long would it take for the fcsc to pay out if it ever did...meantime your savings would be frozen....remember better to panic first and risk looking stupid then lose all your funds
This is really interesting. Asked if his mini budget is a “major economic disaster” he does not say no. Similarly, asked whether mortgage increases will wipe out the effects of capping energy unit costs he does not say no. https://twitter.com/seanjoneskc/status/1575501516437606407
Mortgage interest increases wipe out energy cost savings
Cost of borrowing in market increase wipes out business tax savings
Unpredictability and irrationality of UK government behaviour decreases business investment
It already hasn't worked and will never work. And accusing the markets, banks, institutions, investors, media and everyone else who says so as being part of a left-wing establishment cabal is bonkers.
They don't release that market confidence is *absolutely part of* the success of your plans because they're the ones who decide whether to freely buy in with their money or not.
How far off course do the Tories have to be to lose my vote, your vote, TSE, RichardNabavi and loads of others. I'm not even sure JohnO is going to vote Tory at the next GE!
So in the parallel universe of this site the consensus seem to be that entire U.K. economy is on the verge of collapse and the pound will soon be worth less as currency than as scrap metal in dollars; but it doesn’t really matter because we’re about to die in a nuclear war.
Seriously - calm down. There’s been a market overreaction to a silly policy that will sort itself out, and the real message from what Russia is saying is that it now knows it can’t win.
The message we all should take from this week is that the Ukraine war is nearing the end game, and Starmer really actually might be PM in 2025.
No, there's been a market reaction to the UK government making £45bn in unfunded tax cuts and bringing into question the state's ability to pay its way. A fair market reaction too.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
In depth analysis of American prep for the new World War, debuting next month at a large city near you
Apparently bickering in DC about how much deterrence is needed
"Because Biden and his top national security advisers can't conceive of pressing the nuclear button short of a full-scale attack on the United States, the White House is focusing too much—in its planning and its messaging—on what it considers to be "usable" capabilities, the military officers say. The non-nuclear options include military and non-military measures, including the total economic isolation of Russia"
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
On the flip side I just transferred a five figure number from my Nationwide account to my First Direct account and it took mere seconds.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
This forum can be very polarized at times but Truss and Kwarteng seemed to have brought people together ! Remain , Leave, left, right I do sense there’s a strong majority who are very concerned at what’s going on.
Whilst the site is polarised, we are all of a similar type whereby we like to think we can see major events develop in front of us early (hence the betting angle). So I think the site does tend to overreact through overexposure to doom laden news.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
It seems to me that the Tories really only have two options: 1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng 2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
Option 1 certainly costs them at least two general elections.
And Option 2 involves a lot of pain for a lot of people.
No pain, no gain.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
The budget was presented as delivering growth, not pain, not "creative" destruction.
The two go hand in hand. How you present it is just spin.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
It's odd, because I distinctly remember periods of growth in the economy that weren't associated with the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
Is the concept of "growing pains" new to you though?
It's a good concept for teenagers. I'm not clear if it helps here. I am still struggling to remember previous periods of growth in the economy that saw the £ in freefall, financial markets in chaos, and the Bank of England having to make emergency spends of billions of £...
The growing pains at every point of transition of course are different. In the 1980s we had three million unemployed then a sustained period of growth, currently we've got full employment, so swings and roundabouts.
Meddling with pensions is electoral dynamite of course, not so sure the same is true of benefits.
Meddling with benefits is quite popular with people who don't get those benefits.
I read somewhere that the employment figures are a bit misleading because covid left us with a huge number of economically inactive adults (More than five million?).
That seems a huge number, I can't believe its true.
There's been a change, but on the order of six hundred thousand rather than millions. Of which most are long-term sick, and most of the rest are students.
Economically inactive: Up by 641,710 since Dec 19 - Feb 20. Consists of: +352,011 long term sick +270,836 students +74,226 retired +55,131 “Other” +25,067 temporary sick -17,667 “Discouraged workers” -117,895 Looking after family or home
(Note 1) Discouraged workers are those who are not looking for work because they believe no jobs are available. (Note 2) Other reasons for being economically inactive include those who are waiting for the results of a job application; have not yet started looking for work; do not need or want employment; have given an uncategorised reason for being economically inactive; or have not given a reason for being economically inactive.
Thoughts and prayers for @MoonRabbit as ex-Gloucestershire cricketer Liam Norwell bowls 18 overs to take 9/62 and Warwickshire relegate Yorkshire.
Edit - 13,000 people were watching on Youtube alone as Warwickshire won. I wonder if Strauss was among them?
Last wicket was clearly going down leg 😡
Well, I have to admit, I saw some underwhelming umpiring today. As well as some truly extraordinary bowling by Liam Norwell, who must be the best bowler in England never to play for England.
But then, if Yorkshire hadn't got some distinctly favourable umpiring in their first match against the Shire, they wouldn't even have won one match this season.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
All Putin cares about now - I suspect - is survival in power. He must know he's made a titanic blunder
But survival means he has to "win" - or at least do something that looks vaguely like a win. What on earth is that? Even if he pours a million men into Ukraine he probably still faces a terrible slog of attrition against superior weapons in the hands of motivated Ukro troops
He needs a gamechanger. He has no good options. Only a dwindling list of crap or dangerous options
So, he drops a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine, or maybe the Baltic, or somewhere else. Or an atmospheric nuke to wipe out systems and electronics. Whatever it is: the aim is to terrify the West such that we tell Ukraine to sue peace, for now. And Putin keeps his chunk of the country. A "win"
That might work: for Putin. At least in the short-medium term. There aren't many - any? - better options for him. He probably doesn't care about the long term damage to Russia. It's all about survival in power
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
also the usa benefits as it takes off the table germany capitulating to putin to get cheap gas
Really?
Germany has been getting increasingly steadfast, so I think that's much less of a risk than it was back in - say - April.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
You're never an interesting commenter, but I find this reaction fascinating
Here you have a senior US politician telling you exactly what they will do - cut Nordstream2 "one way or another" - and yet you cannot believe that they would do that, so it must be wrong, or something. Even tho she says explicitly this will happen and that they will do it: to you. And now it's been done. Your brain blanks it all out
A remarkable mindset. A kind of geopolitical Stockholm Syndrome
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Jared Evans @jarede Does everyone know we're about 3 minutes away from a new wave of Truss interviews? Bunch of BBC regional political interviews are going live at 5
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Comments
The absolute shit show out there that is ongoing, not so much
Kwasis budget didnt push German inflation to 10%, force Japan to defend the Yen last week, crash the American housing market or force the Euro to lose nearly 20% versus the dollar
Liz Truss -23
Keir Starmer -14
Angela Rayner -7
Thérèse Coffey -18
James Cleverly - 12
Kwasi Kwarteng -24
Suella Braverman -14
Source: Ipsos Political Pulse https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-more-trusted-to-have-right-policies-for-british-economy-than-conservatives https://twitter.com/IpsosUK/status/1575502825614090240/photo/1
Because it seems that so far we've had tax cuts and spending increases.
Here's Nigel Lawson again:
I would point out that the first thing the Conservatives did in 1979 after coming to power was to raise VAT to 15%.
Now that, genuinely, is a difficult decision.
Might be sweetened with honey, otherwise brandy or whisky.
Could be a bit hard, making them for friends, or the parents of friends!
The Prime Minister just has to condemn the latest atrocity, then sit back and wait for America's lead. The President, on the other hand, has to commit American money or American blood.
We are plunging into a global and systemic crisis, in multiple ways. Britain is just one actor on a crowded and scary stage:
"Russia will formally annex four regions of Ukraine its troops occupy at a grand ceremony in Moscow on Friday, the Kremlin has announced, after it suggested using nuclear weapons to defend the territories."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/29/kremlin-announces-ukraine-annexation-ceremony-for-friday-a78928
"A representative of #Ukraine's intelligence service says the threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine is "very high". https://facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/pfbid022YTxfR9LQZEUiMEvDqNpTkom7m6koZosAQiBaJ8bdEhdN4v9Hn2zkpF17fRes7uGl
All these people have agendas, but at some point we have to admit: Well, this is really quite possible. They keep saying it will happen, so maybe it will happen
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1575500470768242689
That seems a huge number, I can't believe its true.
There. Feel better now. Thanks
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
But it's obvious that the energy cap isn't the issue. It was announced before the Queens death and the Business version was announced last Wednesday (from memory). Heck even the NI changes were announced on the Thursday and again there wasn't much of a murmur.
It was the other tax cuts alongside the lack of a OBR statement that created this mess - because and I know it's a broken record...
If 12 years of low Corporation tax has resulted in sod all growth why suddenly in the 13th year will the same low Corporation tax generate masses of Growth...
In the 2020s, we're going to have a recession and then no growth, if we continue with Truss.
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662?s=20&t=Mk8PZkGOOxgvaSv3e3Mrvw
Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
- Have the right policies for the GB economy 40% - 33%
- Manage Britain's taxes / public spending: 38% - 32%
- Reduce you / your family's cost of living: 39% - 28%
FW Sep 23 - 25 (finished Sunday) https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1575504103782088704/photo/1
Today there weren't enough staff to make hot meals.
Each Secondary School child got a sandwich instead.
We have 2 16 year old TA's.
What's up in the Netherlands?
According to a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Vadym Skibitskyy, #Russia may strike along the front line, where there is a large concentration of equipment and personnel."
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1575501583437402114?s=20&t=lmpt0sxAb0mnIWTxjm3Qxw
Cost of borrowing in market increase wipes out business tax savings
Unpredictability and irrationality of UK government behaviour decreases business investment
It already hasn't worked and will never work. And accusing the markets, banks, institutions, investors, media and everyone else who says so as being part of a left-wing establishment cabal is bonkers.
They don't release that market confidence is *absolutely part of* the success of your plans because they're the ones who decide whether to freely buy in with their money or not.
The @bankofengland’s chief economist directly contradicts govt ministers, who are insisting recent financial volatility is an international story.
“There is undoubtedly a UK-specific component,” says Huw Pill in a speech. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1575508351735459842/photo/1
Not made up sh*t in this case I don't think, though I should have specified 'Eurozone' not 'Europe'
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-economic-sentiment-falls-sharply-inflation-expectations-rise-2022-09-29/
https://twitter.com/garius/status/1575478528967004162
The Department of State talking about Nord Stream 2 in January 2022
@UnderSecStateP
Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1486818088016355336?s=20&t=VlDNshCBvcF347TYOmlvZA
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
The language is couched in what I can only describe as increasing desperation.
Honestly, does everything have to be a breathless “latest development” story?
They've shat every bed in the showroom.
The silence is quite loud.
Seriously - calm down. There’s been a market overreaction to a silly policy that will sort itself out, and the real message from what Russia is saying is that it now knows it can’t win.
The message we all should take from this week is that the Ukraine war is nearing the end game, and Starmer really actually might be PM in 2025.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
Apparently bickering in DC about how much deterrence is needed
"Because Biden and his top national security advisers can't conceive of pressing the nuclear button short of a full-scale attack on the United States, the White House is focusing too much—in its planning and its messaging—on what it considers to be "usable" capabilities, the military officers say. The non-nuclear options include military and non-military measures, including the total economic isolation of Russia"
.https://www.newsweek.com/2022/10/14/biden-thinks-non-nuclear-threats-will-stop-putin-his-military-doesnt-1747343.html
Cutting Nordstream2 certainly helps with "the total economic isolation of Russia"
🤮
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
Edit - 13,000 people were watching on Youtube alone as Warwickshire won. I wonder if Strauss was among them?
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
Economically inactive: Up by 641,710 since Dec 19 - Feb 20.
Consists of:
+352,011 long term sick
+270,836 students
+74,226 retired
+55,131 “Other”
+25,067 temporary sick
-17,667 “Discouraged workers”
-117,895 Looking after family or home
(Note 1) Discouraged workers are those who are not looking for work because they believe no jobs are available.
(Note 2) Other reasons for being economically inactive include those who are waiting for the results of a job application; have not yet started looking for work; do not need or want employment; have given an uncategorised reason for being economically inactive; or have not given a reason for being economically inactive.
But then, if Yorkshire hadn't got some distinctly favourable umpiring in their first match against the Shire, they wouldn't even have won one match this season.
But survival means he has to "win" - or at least do something that looks vaguely like a win. What on earth is that? Even if he pours a million men into Ukraine he probably still faces a terrible slog of attrition against superior weapons in the hands of motivated Ukro troops
He needs a gamechanger. He has no good options. Only a dwindling list of crap or dangerous options
So, he drops a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine, or maybe the Baltic, or somewhere else. Or an atmospheric nuke to wipe out systems and electronics. Whatever it is: the aim is to terrify the West such that we tell Ukraine to sue peace, for now. And Putin keeps his chunk of the country. A "win"
That might work: for Putin. At least in the short-medium term. There aren't many - any? - better options for him. He probably doesn't care about the long term damage to Russia. It's all about survival in power
Germany has been getting increasingly steadfast, so I think that's much less of a risk than it was back in - say - April.
Conservative 29% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
SNP 3% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Other 1% (–)
Redfield, fieldwork yesterday and today
Boooooooooo, bigger required!
Here you have a senior US politician telling you exactly what they will do - cut Nordstream2 "one way or another" - and yet you cannot believe that they would do that, so it must be wrong, or something. Even tho she says explicitly this will happen and that they will do it: to you. And now it's been done. Your brain blanks it all out
A remarkable mindset. A kind of geopolitical Stockholm Syndrome
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
@jarede
Does everyone know we're about 3 minutes away from a new wave of Truss interviews? Bunch of BBC regional political interviews are going live at 5
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)