For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
Another one that the government missed a trick on in a tax cutting budget - stamp duty on shares should have been eliminated, it's an inexpensive measure and would encourage UK companies to list in the UK.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.
At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, referring to the UK: "Business people want to see world leaders taking inflation very seriously. And it's hard to see that out of this new government" https://twitter.com/LouisDegenhardt/status/1575516695300608002
I guess one interesting off-shoot here is that Starmer is in the same position is Cameron c. 08/09. He’s needs to be really careful not to over promise, but he has to be able to offer something hopeful.
Unlike Cameron, he really needs to war game the SNP. Worst possible place to be in Government is to run a Lib/Lab coalition (or have Lib c&s) but have con+SNP over or around the numbers needed for a VONC. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone and dreadful for the country.
I do think in this scenario, his best move is to try and use the Lib Dems to get PR through and, if he can, then immediately hold a new general election under the new rules.
The Tories would be very opposed, but I’m curious on the SNP. They’ve supported it before, but it would massively weaken them and Sturgeon would probably be against it on the argument that it would undermine Scotland’s autonomy. She’d accuse Starmer of using it to scupper independence permanently.
Now, this leads to an intriguing conclusion. If Starmer ended up needing the SNP to pass PR, could he only do it in exchange for IndyRef 2?
After some/all the above has transpired, you could see a new Tory being able to much more easily paint the ‘coalition of chaos’ picture.
If you got PR through you can't really immediately have another election - it wouldn't be practical to organise one quickly.
The best bet if Labour gets 280/300 seats is to turn round and say - we need a proper majority so I'm going to call a second election and if you want a sane Government vote Labour....
It would not be more difficult to organise a second election using PR than it would be using any other voting system.
Why should it be?
A better argument would be that you would not want a second PR election very soon after the first one, because the result would almost certainly be pretty well the same. It would be a waste of time.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
Good post.
If the US and allies are being wise then they will be speaking to Beijing, Delhi and other key players quite regularly about all this. I would not be surprised, if tensions heighten further, for there to be some kind of joint international response ready to go, and for Xi and Modi to be having a quiet word in Putin’s ear.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Consumer Confidence Date Italy 94.8 Sep/22 France 79 Sep/22 Czech Republic 72.7 Sep/22 United States 59.5 Sep/22 Canada 50.14 Sep/22 Sweden 49.7 Sep/22 Ireland 42.1 Sep/22 Malta -9.5 Sep/22 Finland -18.3 Sep/22 Norway -26.8 Sep/22 Belgium -27 Sep/22 Croatia -27.2 Sep/22 Cyprus -27.7 Sep/22 Euro Area -28.8 Sep/22 Luxembourg -29.8 Sep/22 European Union -29.9 Sep/22 Denmark -32.1 Sep/22 Austria -32.2 Sep/22 Slovakia -34.1 Sep/22 Portugal -35.8 Sep/22 Bulgaria -38.4 Sep/22 Slovenia -40 Sep/22 Switzerland -41.7 Sep/22 Poland -44.2 Sep/22 United Kingdom -49 Sep/22 Greece -51.2 Sep/22 Netherlands -59 Sep/22
(For the record, I continue to think leaving the EU was the right choice. But let's please deal in actual facts rather than made up shit please.)
These data are not comparable across all countries, the scales are different.
That's true - I was lazing posting rather than resetting. Some are 1-100, others are -100 to +100.
Nevertheless... my point is not inaccurate. We're nowhere near the levels of the height of the Eurozone crisis or the GFC, when where pretty much everyone was at -60 to -80.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
You're never an interesting commenter, but I find this reaction fascinating
Here you have a senior US politician telling you exactly what they will do - cut Nordstream2 "one way or another" - and yet you cannot believe that they would do that, so it must be wrong, or something. Even tho she says explicitly this will happen and that they will do it: to you. And now it's been done. Your brain blanks it all out
A remarkable mindset. A kind of geopolitical Stockholm Syndrome
You're the one being remarkable, Nordstream was cut, yes, absolutely. It was cut in February.
To destroy something that has already been stopped, is not in the US's interests, it is in Russia's though. You are being bizarre.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.
At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
I think it's fair to call it "not very credible", as Russia has suitable submarines in the Baltic, and to get the 8-9000 tonne American ones that could do the job through the Kattegat and the shallow, narrow passages through the Danish islands would be quite difficult to do secretly or require Scandinavian cooperation, neither of which is very likely imo.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
+1 completely agreed. 💯
USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.
Except there was a Nord Stream 2, laying there waiting to be used. We're heading into winter and Germany faced the prospect of civil unrest and growing calls to do a deal with Russia to allow the gas to flow again.
Jared Evans @jarede Does everyone know we're about 3 minutes away from a new wave of Truss interviews? Bunch of BBC regional political interviews are going live at 5
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
All Putin cares about now - I suspect - is survival in power. He must know he's made a titanic blunder
But survival means he has to "win" - or at least do something that looks vaguely like a win. What on earth is that? Even if he pours a million men into Ukraine he probably still faces a terrible slog of attrition against superior weapons in the hands of motivated Ukro troops
He needs a gamechanger. He has no good options. Only a dwindling list of crap or dangerous options
So, he drops a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine, or maybe the Baltic, or somewhere else. Or an atmospheric nuke to wipe out systems and electronics. Whatever it is: the aim is to terrify the West such that we tell Ukraine to sue peace, for now. And Putin keeps his chunk of the country. A "win"
That might work: for Putin. At least in the short-medium term. There aren't many - any? - better options for him. He probably doesn't care about the long term damage to Russia. It's all about survival in power
The moment Putin uses a battlefield nuke in this way - which I agree with you, I think he will, all hell will break loose in the west. People will be fighting each other in the street for the last bog roll in Tesco. Probably best to stock up now.
One of two things will then happen. Either there will be an immediate proportionate response by the US, probably not involving nuclear but still a significant escalation, e.g. a cruise missile strike on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. We then hold or breath and wonder if things will escalate. If they do, we can expect the whole thing to go nuclear within a matter of days. Hope you stocked up on tinned food and bog rolls (or heroin and cocaine, for that matter).
The other possibility is that the west does absolutely nothing. Mainly because the game theory boffins have evaluated the scenario above and decided it most likely leads to a nuclear exchange that wipes us all out. In which case we have to ask ourselves - does Russia therefore win? Is Ukraine forced to sue for peace?
I am extremely gloomy about the world's survival chances. I'm afraid.
Since I'm replying to a Leon post: I've also wondered at times if the aliens are here to study us because they know we're a society on the brink, and expect us to blow ourselves up.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
Yes when the energy cap was announced the market reaction was broadly positive and bond yields fell because peak 2023 inflation went from ca. 18% to ca. 11%, this insistence that it's the spend from that causing this is rewriting of history. The markets have reacted badly to the government pledging £45bn in tax cuts and not outlining how it would be funded other than to say "our tax cuts on the rich will increase trend growth rates". We're still at that point in time.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Consumer Confidence Date Italy 94.8 Sep/22 France 79 Sep/22 Czech Republic 72.7 Sep/22 United States 59.5 Sep/22 Canada 50.14 Sep/22 Sweden 49.7 Sep/22 Ireland 42.1 Sep/22 Malta -9.5 Sep/22 Finland -18.3 Sep/22 Norway -26.8 Sep/22 Belgium -27 Sep/22 Croatia -27.2 Sep/22 Cyprus -27.7 Sep/22 Euro Area -28.8 Sep/22 Luxembourg -29.8 Sep/22 European Union -29.9 Sep/22 Denmark -32.1 Sep/22 Austria -32.2 Sep/22 Slovakia -34.1 Sep/22 Portugal -35.8 Sep/22 Bulgaria -38.4 Sep/22 Slovenia -40 Sep/22 Switzerland -41.7 Sep/22 Poland -44.2 Sep/22 United Kingdom -49 Sep/22 Greece -51.2 Sep/22 Netherlands -59 Sep/22
(For the record, I continue to think leaving the EU was the right choice. But let's please deal in actual facts rather than made up shit please.)
These data are not comparable across all countries, the scales are different.
That's true - I was lazing posting rather than resetting. Some are 1-100, others are -100 to +100.
Nevertheless... my point is not inaccurate. We're nowhere near the levels of the height of the Eurozone crisis or the GFC, when where pretty much everyone was at -60 to -80.
yes but by then stocks will likely have collapsed and will likely be a buy....anyone in the financial markets knows popular sentiment is a very poor indicator of how bad a crisis may get... most people sadly are herd creatures
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.
At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
I think it's fair to call it "not very credible", as Russia has suitable submarines in the Baltic, and to get the 8-9000 tonne American ones that could do the job through the Kattegat and the shallow, narrow passages through the Danish islands would be quite difficult to do secretly or require Scandinavian cooperation, neither of which is very likely imo.
You don't need a 9000 tonne submarine to do it. As it happens, the US had divers from the Naval Undersea Warfare Center conducting experiments in the location where the pipeline was blown this summer.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.
Except there was a Nord Stream 2, laying there waiting to be used. We're heading into winter and Germany faced the prospect of civil unrest and growing calls to do a deal with Russia to allow the gas to flow again.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
Frankly, this is on a par with investing with Nigerian princes.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
The energy cap should be a one-off, shouldn't it? Especially now that there's a two year commitment. The cost of the tax cuts is recurring. Especially if they don't achieve their stated aim, which seems unlikely.
She just comes right out and says it. Tells Russia what will happen. "One way or another" - which clearly means either we get Germany to cancel it and permanently close it down, or we will blow the fucker up
How can this be an extreme alt-right conspiracy theory when you have this evidence right in front of you? Bewildering
What isn't bewildering (because it's Leon) is that you haven't noticed that Nordstream 2 didn't move on because Germany halted it on February 22nd in response to Russia recognising the breakaway republics.
Not only that but even Nordstream 1 hasn't been operating for a month because Russia stopped it. You don't seem to have even noticed that it is Russian policy to cut off gas supplies to western europe.
If Nordstream 2 had started operating after the invasion, and then got sabotaged, then you might have a point. Your attempts to invent a plausible motive for the US to do something so reckless are completely unconvincing
This is a bit naive. The US has a clear interest in putting the pipeline beyond use and their national security community has been going on about this issue for years. They're also not unknown to use hard power in dealings with allies.
At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
I think it's fair to call it "not very credible", as Russia has suitable submarines in the Baltic, and to get the 8-9000 tonne American ones that could do the job through the Kattegat and the shallow, narrow passages through the Danish islands would be quite difficult to do secretly or require Scandinavian cooperation, neither of which is very likely imo.
The Americans did a large yet secretive military maneuver in the Baltic in June
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
Yes when the energy cap was announced the market reaction was broadly positive and bond yields fell because peak 2023 inflation went from ca. 18% to ca. 11%, this insistence that it's the spend from that causing this is rewriting of history. The markets have reacted badly to the government pledging £45bn in tax cuts and not outlining how it would be funded other than to say "our tax cuts on the rich will increase trend growth rates". We're still at that point in time.
"Little" things like the obstruction of the OBR, the poor media performances of the new Chancellor, the long delay before next steps are also contributing factors. Confidence generally has been lost beyond the specific measures which were bad enough. It will be very hard to win back without exceptional luck in events beyond their control.
Just to encourage everyone, the river levels in my approx. area seem to be following 2018 rather than any other year, which was the most 'orrible recent one. This is Ladybower (with the giant plugholes), which waters Sheffield.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Your hero Putin is behind this, despite your desperate attempts to deflect.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
All Putin cares about now - I suspect - is survival in power. He must know he's made a titanic blunder
But survival means he has to "win" - or at least do something that looks vaguely like a win. What on earth is that? Even if he pours a million men into Ukraine he probably still faces a terrible slog of attrition against superior weapons in the hands of motivated Ukro troops
He needs a gamechanger. He has no good options. Only a dwindling list of crap or dangerous options
So, he drops a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine, or maybe the Baltic, or somewhere else. Or an atmospheric nuke to wipe out systems and electronics. Whatever it is: the aim is to terrify the West such that we tell Ukraine to sue peace, for now. And Putin keeps his chunk of the country. A "win"
That might work: for Putin. At least in the short-medium term. There aren't many - any? - better options for him. He probably doesn't care about the long term damage to Russia. It's all about survival in power
The moment Putin uses a battlefield nuke in this way - which I agree with you, I think he will, all hell will break loose in the west. People will be fighting each other in the street for the last bog roll in Tesco. Probably best to stock up now.
One of two things will then happen. Either there will be an immediate proportionate response by the US, probably not involving nuclear but still a significant escalation, e.g. a cruise missile strike on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. We then hold or breath and wonder if things will escalate. If they do, we can expect the whole thing to go nuclear within a matter of days. Hope you stocked up on tinned food and bog rolls (or heroin and cocaine, for that matter).
The other possibility is that the west does absolutely nothing. Mainly because the game theory boffins have evaluated the scenario above and decided it most likely leads to a nuclear exchange that wipes us all out. In which case we have to ask ourselves - does Russia therefore win? Is Ukraine forced to sue for peace?
I am extremely gloomy about the world's survival chances. I'm afraid.
Since I'm replying to a Leon post: I've also wondered at times if the aliens are here to study us because they know we're a society on the brink, and expect us to blow ourselves up.
if it got to that level of panic most people in the UK would sacrifice Ukraine for peace...people are not willing to die in a mushroom cloud for ukraine...putin would likely be dead in 10 years anyway with no more appetite for foreign adventures
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
Frankly, this is on a par with investing with Nigerian princes.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
Frankly, this is on a par with investing with Nigerian princes.
Funny you should mention that, I sent one of them 320 bog rolls and was promised that would unlock a government contract which would return 6,000 for me as commission within a month. I haven't heard back from him since, the shyster.
1. America openly vows - if Russia invades Ukraine - to cut Nordstream2 for good, "one way or another" - either by getting Germany to close it down or by "another way". Biden repeats this threat later. Explicitly. Standing next to the German Chancellor
2. Nordstream 2 is "suspended"
3. Russia invades Ukraine
4. Calls grow in Germany, from senior politicians, to open Nordstream2, a move seen as benefiting Putin, financially and strategically
5. Boom. Nordstream2 is cut for good, one way or another. Fuck, who did that?
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
As stated above, I would suggest that people DYOR on this - from a risk assessment perspective I'd say it's only marginally more risky than holding bonds. Just the mere association with the word "crypto" is likely to set off some of the bedwetting boomers on this forum who can't understand new technology.
If anyone on here genuinely believes the pound is about to crash / disappear / go under / whatever, it is a very easy way of getting your money out of GBP and into an instrument backed by Blackrock and Fidelity that promises to pay the bearer $1 for every 1 USDC.
Personally, I don't think the pound is about to collapse or disappear in the next few days, but if anyone does, it's a very easy "out" they could research.
US mortgage rates are rising at a rapid pace, slamming housing affordability and causing turmoil for homebuyers encountering the highest borrowing costs in at least 15 years
The average rate for a 30 year mortgage soared to 6.7%, the highest since 2007
On the same strap line - Truss's chances of standing down this year are up sharply
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
+1 completely agreed. 💯
USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
I mean, if you want to hedge with dollars, why not, um, just buy dollars?
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
+1 completely agreed. 💯
USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
Frankly, this is on a par with investing with Nigerian princes.
Who knew KYF stood for Know your Frauds
Hi,
I am a former Nazgûl. Following the fall of our dearly departed Lord, I have been left with a substantial quantity of mithril. Due to the actions of Gondorian Occupation Forces, I cannot sell this myself. However….
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
Why is Truss trying to suggest the markets didn’t like the energy help. The energy cap was announced before the Queens death and was not the issue behind the pound drama which was in relation to last Friday’s announcement.
Because the detail of how it’s to be paid for was not confirmed until last Friday.
Is the penny dropping on some of you now then? No ifs no butts, The Goat needs a hair cut.
I’ve been saying it all week, and taking far too much flak. PB. Are. A. Disgrace. (sometimes)
Keep dreaming - there was nothing wrong with the energy cap - all of europe is doing the same and its been built into the market for weeks.
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
The energy cap should be a one-off, shouldn't it? Especially now that there's a two year commitment. The cost of the tax cuts is recurring. Especially if they don't achieve their stated aim, which seems unlikely.
Yep - that was something this site picked up immediately - the tax cuts created a situation where forever more tax revenue was less than government expenditure...
US mortgage rates are rising at a rapid pace, slamming housing affordability and causing turmoil for homebuyers encountering the highest borrowing costs in at least 15 years
The average rate for a 30 year mortgage soared to 6.7%, the highest since 2007
On the same strap line - Truss's chances of standing down this year are up sharply
You appear to be suggesting that 'it's the same everywhere - nothing to do with Liz'. Or have I misunderstood?
On topic, i suspect the chance now depends on how much of this polling collapse bakes in or extends and how much is a knee jerk to the wall to wall drama this week. I suspect the Tories would stop a Lab majority with 35% plus in a GE, possibly 34%
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
No really I think it's new and very valuable information that anyone would be told by a financial institution that they were slow to respond because they were unusually busy.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
Extraordinary. If they could turn back time, I wonder how many Tory MPs would now stick with Boris. He suffered a polling slump, but for the mid-term they seemed manageable enough.
Cutting NordStream is great for Republicans in Texas and other energy producing states, and terrible for consumers in Democrat states.
And I think Biden is enough of a politician to want to be reelected.
Finally: if it was the US, and it came out (and it would come out), there would be a massive backlash against the US in Europe. How would you feel if the Americans knocked out a piece of British infrastructure, even it wasn't being used?
1. America openly vows - if Russia invades Ukraine - to cut Nordstream2 for good, "one way or another" - either by getting Germany to close it down or by "another way". Biden repeats this threat later. Explicitly. Standing next to the German Chancellor
2. Nordstream 2 is "suspended"
3. Russia invades Ukraine
4. Calls grow in Germany, from senior politicians, to open Nordstream2, a move seen as benefiting Putin, financially and strategically
5. Boom. Nordstream2 is cut for good, one way or another. Fuck, who did that?
Yep, that's all that happened in the last eight months.
On topic, i suspect the chance now depends on how much of this polling collapse bakes in or extends and how much is a knee jerk to the wall to wall drama this week. I suspect the Tories would stop a Lab majority with 35% plus in a GE, possibly 34%
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
There's a couple of pieces to pick apart here.
Let's start with the obvious:
(1) What is the target of the tactical nuke? Is it being used as a demonstration of Putin's Will to Power, or is it being used to achieve some kind of tactical purpose?
And let's not forget that the use of even a tactical nuke on Snake Island is replete with risks for Putin: What if it is a dud? What if China responds by joining the West in completely isolating Russia? What if it precipitates an uprising among his people or his Generals?
(2) There are plenty of non-nuclear escalations that the West can take. Russia's war effort would be severely compromised if the Kerch Bridge were to fall. How would they then resupply troops in Crimea.
I'm struggling to see the benefits to Putin, because use of a tactical nuke won't stop the Ukrainians fighting; it won't stop the West supplying Ukraine; and it will pretty much ensure the loss of support from Russia's few remaining sortof allies.
All Putin cares about now - I suspect - is survival in power. He must know he's made a titanic blunder
But survival means he has to "win" - or at least do something that looks vaguely like a win. What on earth is that? Even if he pours a million men into Ukraine he probably still faces a terrible slog of attrition against superior weapons in the hands of motivated Ukro troops
He needs a gamechanger. He has no good options. Only a dwindling list of crap or dangerous options
So, he drops a tactical nuke somewhere in Ukraine, or maybe the Baltic, or somewhere else. Or an atmospheric nuke to wipe out systems and electronics. Whatever it is: the aim is to terrify the West such that we tell Ukraine to sue peace, for now. And Putin keeps his chunk of the country. A "win"
That might work: for Putin. At least in the short-medium term. There aren't many - any? - better options for him. He probably doesn't care about the long term damage to Russia. It's all about survival in power
The moment Putin uses a battlefield nuke in this way - which I agree with you, I think he will, all hell will break loose in the west. People will be fighting each other in the street for the last bog roll in Tesco. Probably best to stock up now.
One of two things will then happen. Either there will be an immediate proportionate response by the US, probably not involving nuclear but still a significant escalation, e.g. a cruise missile strike on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. We then hold or breath and wonder if things will escalate. If they do, we can expect the whole thing to go nuclear within a matter of days. Hope you stocked up on tinned food and bog rolls (or heroin and cocaine, for that matter).
The other possibility is that the west does absolutely nothing. Mainly because the game theory boffins have evaluated the scenario above and decided it most likely leads to a nuclear exchange that wipes us all out. In which case we have to ask ourselves - does Russia therefore win? Is Ukraine forced to sue for peace?
I am extremely gloomy about the world's survival chances. I'm afraid.
Since I'm replying to a Leon post: I've also wondered at times if the aliens are here to study us because they know we're a society on the brink, and expect us to blow ourselves up.
if it got to that level of panic most people in the UK would sacrifice Ukraine for peace...people are not willing to die in a mushroom cloud for ukraine...putin would likely be dead in 10 years anyway with no more appetite for foreign adventures
That said, it wouldn’t be up to the British people. It would be up to the US and Russian Presidents as to whether it’s time for MAD.
But I do agree with the general point you are making. I am not sure the Biden Administration would risk a global nuclear exchange on the basis of Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a non NATO member. Much more likely is a targeted and significant international response to the breaking of the nuclear taboo to permanently isolate Russia until Putin is gone. That will however heighten the stakes considerably.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
+1 completely agreed. 💯
USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
++1.
Every “stable coin” is suspect. I wouldn’t trust any of them.
If you want short term $ exposure, go to your broker and buy a into a $-denominated money market fund.
Vanguard does one (ticker VMFXX I think), BlackRock too.
These funds publish their holdings on a regular basis (daily?) and are audited by real auditors. You can’t say that about any of the soi-disant “stable coins”.
Extraordinary. If they could turn back time, I wonder how many Tory MPs would now stick with Boris. He suffered a polling slump, but for the mid-term they seemed manageable enough.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
Biden didn't give a particular fuck about Germany then, so maybe he doesn't now
There is no NordStream 2. That happened right at the beginning of the invasion.
Except there was a Nord Stream 2, laying there waiting to be used. We're heading into winter and Germany faced the prospect of civil unrest and growing calls to do a deal with Russia to allow the gas to flow again.
And now Germany, which had been refusing to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine because Russia might close down their Nordstreams, has no real cards to play to not send those tanks.
Another great reason it was the Seps wot done it....
Cutting NordStream is great for Republicans in Texas and other energy producing states, and terrible for consumers in Democrat states.
And I think Biden is enough of a politician to want to be reelected.
Finally: if it was the US, and it came out (and it would come out), there would be a massive backlash against the US in Europe. How would you feel if the Americans knocked out a piece of British infrastructure, even it wasn't being used?
I should give up - you're trying to reason with an idiot.
fwiw im having trouble accessing a savings account today when i only logged into it last week....just wonder if people are starting to panic and withdraw their saving from banks
My sister sincerely asked the Fam is she should stockpile, this morning
On Wednesday there were gaps on the shelves so either people are already stockpiling, or supermarkets are preparing for Christmas. Or something else.
Very similar in Camden Marks and Spencers. Has been for the last week or so. Suddenly empty shelves. eg No chicken at all, or almost no greens
Like very early Covid. What's going on?
I would hazard a guess that the October energy price rise + general malaise at the moment has made people think “Better buy things now whilst I’ve still got money”, whether that be Christmas things or more generally
ok well onto my savings account....normally when i log in they send me a verification code by sms...this time tried three times..no verification code...phoned them....was on hold for an hour....when they answered they said the verification codes had been sent....i dont believe them,,,anyway then i finally got access to my account.....guy was saying how busy they are.....my guess is people are panicking and withdrawing savings and the company is desperately trying to slow the tide by using the aforementioned tricks....anyway my money is all out now and will be heading offshore
Not a bad attempt to try and sow fear and panic but I don’t think you will start a run on banks by posting this sort of crap on here.
im doing whats best for my own funds...what you do is your own decision...maybe you dont have savings so have less to lose
Maybe, or maybe I’ve worked in the finance industry offshore for 25 years and understand that it’s tied inextricably to the health of onshore financial markets and banks so unlikely to protect in all cases.
I also understand that you can’t just open offshore accounts very easily and quickly anymore unless in a crap jurisdiction which also brings its risks.
But keep up the good work.
rubbish i have several us dollar accounts already open....they were opened a while ago mind...just a matter of moving the funds
If anyone is particularly concerned about the value of the pound, or even the pound collapsing, it is very easy to set up an account on Bitstamp or Gemini (two of the oldest and most conservative crypto exchanges) and buy dollars in the form of the USDC stablecoin, pegged to the dollar at $1. USDC isn't a fly-by-night cryptocurrency, it's a financial instrument used to trade in and out of cryptocurrencies and backed by Blackrock and Fidelity, amongst others.
I'd say you could set up an account, go through KYC verification, transfer your entire bank balance and convert it to USDC within 24 hours.
DYOR, obviously, but to the technophobes amongst you what I am suggesting is very different to "buying crypto", it is more "buying and holding an asset backed by paper investments (much as any bank will do) where 1 USDC = $1."
Wow! Do not do this!
As stated above, I would suggest that people DYOR on this - from a risk assessment perspective I'd say it's only marginally more risky than holding bonds. Just the mere association with the word "crypto" is likely to set off some of the bedwetting boomers on this forum who can't understand new technology.
If anyone on here genuinely believes the pound is about to crash / disappear / go under / whatever, it is a very easy way of getting your money out of GBP and into an instrument backed by Blackrock and Fidelity that promises to pay the bearer $1 for every 1 USDC.
Personally, I don't think the pound is about to collapse or disappear in the next few days, but if anyone does, it's a very easy "out" they could research.
Bonkers. If people want to invest in crypto there is a place for that as a risk asset or speculative gamble as a tiny percentage of a balanced portfolio. If people believe the pound and UK banking guarantees are riskier than crypto assets in the short term they should be re-assured that is not the case, not signposted to extreme risk and zero consumer protection.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
If you were the CIA, would you take the political stability of Germany for granted? In the latest YouGov poll, the SPD is now only 2% above the AfD.
Eh?
If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
As a case for "I know it was the US", it's not very convincing. Someone has been spending too much time on right wing Twitter again.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
There are several potential benificiaries:
- Gazprom, because it gets them off the hook for 10s of billions in damages - Putin, because it means that the oligarchs can't bump him off and go back to normal - Norway, because it means they will get even more from their pipeline
But I'm not sure that the US is that much of a beneficiary. I would have thought Biden would like slightly less US natural gas to go to Europe, so that prices in the US could come down somewhat.
Yes, plausible, tho I am unconvinced by the Gazprom thing. We are close to WW3, I don't think oil & gas company profits are that important
How might Washington benefit from cutting the pipe? This links to that CIA interview. The American establishment is "terrified" of Putin going nuclear, he says. Those are his words not mine. So they are clearly taking it super seriously in the USA
In that light they need to tell Putin quite dramatically that if it comes to it America can hurt Russia in multiple ways without actually lobbing missiles. America can cut Russia's gas exports, and cripple its economy, just by blowing up a pipeline. Et voila
On the one hand this means Americans picture Putin saying "damn, I was going to use a nuclear weapon but Biden might cut off the gas supply to western Europe if I do, so I'd better not"
On the other it means Biden said, "what the hell, this might destroy the unity of the western countries, and destroy whatever moral high ground we have with neutrals, in order to "scare" Putin by closing a pipe he's already closed. Let's go for it!"
Except that Biden said he would do exactly this. Cut the pipeline. Without asking Germany
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Well, firstly that article is from over a month ago, when German gas storage levels were much lower.
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
As that article shows, reopening Nordstream2 - or just the idea if reopening it - was seen as helping Putin
Why then would Putin permanently destroy this pipeline, if he's got senior German politicians wanting to reopen it and pay him for gas? Increasing Russia's leverage?
It's not a slam dunk but if you ask Cui Bono from the sabotage, the answer is: the USA (and Ukraine), not Putin
And America expressly said they would do this!
Like I say, not proven yet, but dismissing this plausible scenario as a "mad Trumpite fantasy", as some do, is really quite bizarre
Cutting NordStream is great for Republicans in Texas and other energy producing states, and terrible for consumers in Democrat states.
And I think Biden is enough of a politician to want to be reelected.
Finally: if it was the US, and it came out (and it would come out), there would be a massive backlash against the US in Europe. How would you feel if the Americans knocked out a piece of British infrastructure, even it wasn't being used?
That was standard throughout the Cold War when anti-Americanism in Western Europe had a much harder edge.
Comments
At this point I don't think it's correct to call this a 'conspiracy theory' because there isn't an official version of what happened yet. All we know is that the pipeline was destroyed and that it was almost certainly done by a state actor. Perhaps more information will come into the public domain that will clarify how it was done.
The Tories only loss 225 seats and Labour have a small majority...
https://twitter.com/LouisDegenhardt/status/1575516695300608002
Why should it be?
A better argument would be that you would not want a second PR election very soon after the first one, because the result would almost certainly be pretty well the same. It would be a waste of time.
If the US and allies are being wise then they will be speaking to Beijing, Delhi and other key players quite regularly about all this. I would not be surprised, if tensions heighten further, for there to be some kind of joint international response ready to go, and for Xi and Modi to be having a quiet word in Putin’s ear.
Nevertheless... my point is not inaccurate. We're nowhere near the levels of the height of the Eurozone crisis or the GFC, when where pretty much everyone was at -60 to -80.
It manages to be even more dramatic than the last one
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1575517296529133568
https://twitter.com/WarfareReports/status/1575515552654962689?s=20&t=SlJmnN0joV3i_liIBOOeHA
To destroy something that has already been stopped, is not in the US's interests, it is in Russia's though. You are being bizarre.
I see that HMQ Time of Death is 3:10pm on the Death Certificate.
POLAKWAS
The issue was additional tax cuts beyond the energy cap with no justification for them. Remember if the same theory hasn't worked for the past 12 years no-one is going to believe that this time round low corporation tax really, really will generate investment in productivity.
USDC != USD. Stablecoins are anything but stable and no form of crypto is a stable "investment".
Latest RW
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 17%, largest lead for them that we've EVER recorded.
Westminster Voting Intention (28-9 Sept):
Labour 46% (+2)
Conservative 29% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
SNP 3% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 25 Sept
One of two things will then happen. Either there will be an immediate proportionate response by the US, probably not involving nuclear but still a significant escalation, e.g. a cruise missile strike on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. We then hold or breath and wonder if things will escalate. If they do, we can expect the whole thing to go nuclear within a matter of days. Hope you stocked up on tinned food and bog rolls (or heroin and cocaine, for that matter).
The other possibility is that the west does absolutely nothing. Mainly because the game theory boffins have evaluated the scenario above and decided it most likely leads to a nuclear exchange that wipes us all out. In which case we have to ask ourselves - does Russia therefore win? Is Ukraine forced to sue for peace?
I am extremely gloomy about the world's survival chances. I'm afraid.
Since I'm replying to a Leon post: I've also wondered at times if the aliens are here to study us because they know we're a society on the brink, and expect us to blow ourselves up.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/19/reopen-nord-stream-2-ease-energy-crisis-senior-german-politician/
"Reopen Nord Stream 2 to ease our energy crisis, senior German politician urges
Remarks over halted pipeline project have been criticised for 'strengthening Russia's false narratives'"
A senior figure within one of Germany's ruling parties has said the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia should be reopened, in a sign of an emerging rift over energy supplies as winter approaches.
"We should open Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible to fill our gas storage facilities for the winter," Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy head of the FDP, told Germany’s RND news group on Friday.
Opening the pipeline would help people stay warm in the winter and protect German industry, said Mr Kubicki, whose party is the junior coalition partner to the SPD and the Greens."
Oh, wait, no, you can't do that, because America just blew it up. Soz, Germany
Here's a chart for UK over time:
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
Realistically I think Labour and the Tories both have too many seats and the Lib dems would have 33 or so...
Chancellor says he understands concerns but asks for the party to "remain focused" - adding "we will show markets our plan is sound"
https://bbc.in/3Rsx4ym
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
i reckon YG
WTF are Kantar doing with their 22-26/9 Poll Should be the last SKS fans please explain poll for a while
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-)
via
@KantarPublic
, 22 - 26 Sep
In his latest statement he blows a large hole in the Truss/Kwarteng defence that this is all a global affair .
Winter and spring hosepipe ban ?
https://riverlevels.uk/ladybower-reservoir-ladybower-reservoir-lvl#.YzXB9XbMJEY
1. America openly vows - if Russia invades Ukraine - to cut Nordstream2 for good, "one way or another" - either by getting Germany to close it down or by "another way". Biden repeats this threat later. Explicitly. Standing next to the German Chancellor
2. Nordstream 2 is "suspended"
3. Russia invades Ukraine
4. Calls grow in Germany, from senior politicians, to open Nordstream2, a move seen as benefiting Putin, financially and strategically
5. Boom. Nordstream2 is cut for good, one way or another. Fuck, who did that?
If anyone on here genuinely believes the pound is about to crash / disappear / go under / whatever, it is a very easy way of getting your money out of GBP and into an instrument backed by Blackrock and Fidelity that promises to pay the bearer $1 for every 1 USDC.
Personally, I don't think the pound is about to collapse or disappear in the next few days, but if anyone does, it's a very easy "out" they could research.
US mortgage rates are rising at a rapid pace, slamming housing affordability and causing turmoil for homebuyers encountering the highest borrowing costs in at least 15 years
The average rate for a 30 year mortgage soared to 6.7%, the highest since 2007
On the same strap line - Truss's chances of standing down this year are up sharply
I mean, if you want to hedge with dollars, why not, um, just buy dollars?
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1575521311161569280
I am a former Nazgûl. Following the fall of our dearly departed Lord, I have been left with a substantial quantity of mithril. Due to the actions of Gondorian Occupation Forces, I cannot sell this myself. However….
Secondly, you're choosing to ignore the fact that Germany's actual leader - Olaf Schultz - has become a *lot* more hawkish. He's now demanding that Russia withdraw from all of occupied Ukraine, while before he was much more icky on the issue of Crimea.
- Tories down 7 points in four days; Labour up 9
-Just 37% of 2019 Con voters saying they would vote Tory now
-Three times as many voters pick Starmer as best PM as Truss
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7
Labour have a 33 POINT LEAD with YouGov/Times
Yes, 33. THIRTY-THREE POINTS
Lab: 54 (+9)
Con: 21 (-7)
Lib: 7 (-2)
Green: 6 (-1)
Ref: 4 (+1)
Fieldwork: Today and yesterday
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7
Liz Truss: 15 (-10)
Keir Starmer: 44 (+12)
How well or badly do you think Liz Truss is doing in her role as prime minister so far?
Well: 15
Badly: 65
CHB was a pessimist.
Cutting NordStream is great for Republicans in Texas and other energy producing states, and terrible for consumers in Democrat states.
And I think Biden is enough of a politician to want to be reelected.
Finally: if it was the US, and it came out (and it would come out), there would be a massive backlash against the US in Europe. How would you feel if the Americans knocked out a piece of British infrastructure, even it wasn't being used?
A slam dunk case.
But I do agree with the general point you are making. I am not sure the Biden Administration would risk a global nuclear exchange on the basis of Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a non NATO member. Much more likely is a targeted and significant international response to the breaking of the nuclear taboo to permanently isolate Russia until Putin is gone. That will however heighten the stakes considerably.
17 per cent of those who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 now say they would vote Labour
Every “stable coin” is suspect. I wouldn’t trust any of them.
If you want short term $ exposure, go to your broker and buy a into a $-denominated money market fund.
Vanguard does one (ticker VMFXX I think), BlackRock too.
These funds publish their holdings on a regular basis (daily?) and are audited by real auditors. You can’t say that about any of the soi-disant “stable coins”.
Another great reason it was the Seps wot done it....
If you were the CIA would you risk massive backlash against the US in a key ally by blowing up some of their infrasructure?
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
via
@YouGov
, 28 - 29 Sep
Chgs. w/ 25 Sep
Better: 44
Worse: 13
*Including only those who still say they plan to vote Conservative*
Better: 36
Worse: 29
Someone has been spending too much time on right wing Twitter again.
As that article shows, reopening Nordstream2 - or just the idea if reopening it - was seen as helping Putin
Why then would Putin permanently destroy this pipeline, if he's got senior German politicians wanting to reopen it and pay him for gas? Increasing Russia's leverage?
It's not a slam dunk but if you ask Cui Bono from the sabotage, the answer is: the USA (and Ukraine), not Putin
And America expressly said they would do this!
Like I say, not proven yet, but dismissing this plausible scenario as a "mad Trumpite fantasy", as some do, is really quite bizarre
NEW Westminster Voting Intention. Largest Labour lead (21 points) we've ever recorded.
CON 28% (-5)
LAB 49% (+6)
LD 11% (nc)
SNP 5% (+1)
GRE 1% (-2)
Others 7% (+2)
*Changes in comparison to Survation polling September 5th 2022
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1575522804644007941