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A LAB majority bet is starting to look value – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority bet is starting to look value – politicalbetting.com
Over the last year also I have been very cynical about the betting prices on a LAB majority. The scale of what Starmer faces is massive given that he starts on 202 seats and needs 326 for a majority.
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Lab would be polling 50% I think.
For a start it's a pre-emptive warning to Putin by the USA: "we too are prepared to do crazy or violent things, so you bluff won't work, we will also go to the brink and maybe beyond"
In fact this fits perfectly with Deterrence Theory. You should EXPECT America to do something like this, and so they have done it
Goodness knows what kind of leads we will see if people ever take to Starmer, or begin to think 'You know something, maybe Socialism isn't s so bad after all.'
Labour's are on the fringes.
Last week's tax cuts plus increased cost of government borrowing after market turmoil means Kwarteng will have to find savings on the same scale as George Osborne's emergency 2010 austerity budget
c £37-£47 billion
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1575481716017221632
Journalist: “Can you give me an example?”
Liz Truss: “Well not at the moment …”
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1575442365195722753
People sometimes take a while to die (even when it is obvious they are on the way). And I don't think the Palace would ever outright lie in a press release.
I like that it's the local Braemar GP who certified it. "Would you mind popping over?"
She is more appealing than the likes of Trump, Putin or Orban. But that's like saying syphilis is preferable to AIDS.
Heck there probably isn't £37 of easy to achieve savings....
It gives the cause of death as 'old age' which doesn't actually ring true. I suspect there was another immediate cause.
But it gives the time of death as 15.10.
Lab Leak is the classic example
Here is the defining paragraph of that seminal letter to the Lancet early in 2020, which managed to close down debate about Covid origins for over a year. Remember Facebook literally banned mere discussion of the theory it might have come from the lab. For a year
"We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife"
All total bollocks. Not only that, lying bollocks. At the end of the letter the authors declare "no conflict of interest", whereas the guy who organised the whole letter and wrote the first draft, Peter Daszak, DID THE VIROLOGICAL WORK AT WUHAN and was co-head of the lab
I mean, what possible conflict of interest could HE have in dismissing the lab leak theory as a "conspiracy theory"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_letter_(COVID-19)
So that is an actual - and globally significant - example of a conspiracy hidden by allegations of conspiracy. And in this case, curiously, they got it to work by attaching the ideas of trump and alt.right to the very idea of Lab Leak
Which, if you look back, is insane
I am 98% certain the virus came from the lab. I am much less certain who blew up the pipeline, I am tempted to guess America, but it is a wild guess. But people suddenly saying it is an "alt-right conspiracy theory" makes me more suspicious of Washington, not less
1. Dump Truss and Kwarteng
2. Go hell for leather on the Truss/Kwarteng plan in the hope that it works
They will almost certainly go for 2. The chances are that will cost them at least two general elections.
If they get a few of these right then there's a chance of them building support among some voters on the basis of, "if they do just that one thing my vote will have been worth it," or on a basis of, "this is so obvious and common sense, why hasn't it happened already," particularly given the public's willingness to overlook all the practical reasons why 'commonsense' things are rarely as simple as they sound.
Course, they might mess it up and blow their own credibility with some comedy policies, but you can see how things could get worse for the Tories.
And I'd rather lose the election, than win it by implementing Gordon Brown's tax rises.
In the current climate of UK politics that puts you up with Gandhi, Mandela and Obama.
I have vote Tory in GEs for decades. Just at the moment, since Patersongate 'Tory scum', while inappropriate and mistaken, doesn't feel as out of place as it does when applied to Ken Clarke and the One Nation tradition.
As I have said a few times 2008 this ain't.
I think that the government made yet another mistake in not bringing forward the November budget. The government is suffering a serious lack of trust and credibility and they need to see the OBR stamp on things. The sooner that this can be done the better.
If these headlines are forgotten in a few days and things remain relatively stable then the bet on a Labour majority looks unattractive. If, however, there are further squalls then it will become a no brainer. At which point, of course, the current price will no longer be available.
"But bring it back in one piece - and whatever you do, don't even think about arming the explosives at these four locations...."
Looking at the guidance (PDF, section 4.3), I'm far from sure that the conditions are fulfilled.
Anyway does a death certificate ever say murder on it. More likely to be some physical cause lik manual asphyxiation or renal failure.
Retired but articulate CIA guy is interviewed about Putin. He says Putin, according to his Russian contacts, is likely to "go nuclear". Putin may get stopped by his own people but we can't rely on that. Putin has cornered himself like a mad rat, he has few options left, and this is one
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575272663924211712?s=20&t=Xy9RlkbEHgO7xLqfYucKgA
Watch from 5:23
He also concludes that if and when Putin does drop a tactical nuke, we won't be able to respond in kind, we won't use strategic nukes because that ends the world. In other words, this might work for Putin, which makes it worse
I've been 'anyone but the Tories" forever, but I can still scent the bad smell emitted from Corbyn Labour. Even now, I would be more comfortable ejecting Alun Cairns' by voting LD than Labour.
Decades of governments trying to shield people from pain is what has gotten us into this mess. The country is bankrupt due to preventing a natural virus from spreading, houses are unaffordable to millions because a one-way ratchet shielded those with houses from going into negative equity, and so on and so forth.
If you prevent pain, you prevent creative destruction, you prevent growth, you prevent social mobility and you entrench problems.
Creative destruction is what allows growth.
Stability is another name for stagnation.
I mean, Jesus FC: aren't you an academic?! The depths of this pure, boneheaded, incurious stupidity, revealed in the last few years, are quite something
I was wondering this morning whether a pre-emtive tactical nuclear strike, perhaps on a Russian military base, might be a tactic.
Putin should be in no doubt that should it come to it, we will pull them pistols. We will reduce Russia's cities to ashes.
Cutting out Nordstream is part of that - a key negotiation asset deliberately destroyed.
I use this tactic a lot to get stuff done : Announce to your boss that something will be finished by COB, or your friends that you are going to run a Marathon.
Thanks, TED talk, etc
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/29/economy/uk-economic-crisis/index.html
German inflation now above 10%.
European consumer confidence below level of 2012 sovereign debt crisis.
Lets rejoin...
And a thousand non-nuke cruise missiles targeting Russia's hydrocarbons industry. That would keep the rest of OPEC sweet at least.
Peter Daszak discussing his work in 2016
"Then when you get a sequence of a virus, and it looks like a relative of a known nasty pathogen, just like we did with SARS. We found other coronaviruses in bats, a whole host of them, some of them looked very similar to SARS. So we sequenced the spike protein: the protein that attaches to cells. Then we… Well I didn’t do this work, but my colleagues in China did the work. You create pseudo particles, you insert the spike proteins from those viruses, see if they bind to human cells. At each step of this you move closer and closer to this virus could really become pathogenic in people.
“You end up with a small number of viruses that really do look like killers,” he adds."
https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/06/08/daszak-reveals-chinese-colleagues-manipulating-coronaviruses/
But you know what? I don't want to spend all day discussing this. It's turned into a theological debate and those who don't want to believe can no longer be persuaded
Remember it’s the Tory conference in a few days, the market panic has passed; and expectations for Truss are now set so low that if she can walk in a straight line to the podium and say her own name, there’s going to be a media comeback narrative.
I don't think this is reversible, and certainly not by a government as totally inept at communication as this one.
His credibility has been Schrodered.