CON & LAB now level pegging in the GE most seats betting – politicalbetting.com
CON & LAB now level pegging in the GE most seats betting – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows the next general election most seats betting and as can be seen from that the first time both Labour and the Tories are placed at exactly 50% each.
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(Again)
So there is still time for Liz Truss to make a first impression, but it is astonishing that my focus group (consisting of me) has no firm opinion of Truss despite her having been in government for ages; literally so! OGH tipped Liz Truss at 50/1 to be next prime minister — halfway through David Cameron's first term!
https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264
With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.
If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1569390758074916864?s=20&t=2r9tWs2IBQc81MtIMihBRw
That gives Labour 313 seats and the Tories 252 after the boundary changes, so effectively 2010 in reverse with Starmer like Cameron winning most seats but not a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35&LAB=42&LIB=10&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.1&SCOTLAB=23.9&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=44.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652
It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...
Every chance those results will carry forward in time.
History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.
Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.
That genuinely is evil.
It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.
That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.
So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer
60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.
Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
Plus the moment they go beyond the pale, they lose China. China will not risk losing western markets through boycotts, by supporting a nuke-using Putin.
One of PB's great received wisdoms was that Angela Merkel was a towering figure and a political genius.
"TBF chemical weapons concern me much more than nuclear; they are much more deniable and his regime have a track record of using them."
The fact he has history with chemical weapons suggests no one will be fooled except for the Russian public (and Jeremy Corbyn, of course). Still that might be enough.
Pretty sure most PB Tories, both Leave and Remain, had a far more nuanced view on Merkel.
Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.
In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
I'm guessing that there will be less swingback than usual next time, because the economic cycle isn't going to be in the right place, despite Truss and Kwarteng's best efforts.
And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.
Indeed, the places most fucked by Russian gas not being sent to Europe are poor countries that are being outbid got LNG cargos.
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta400/documents/final-appraisal-determination-document
But they do represent value.
1) it's all still going according to plan and Donbas was the key; and
2) How dare beastly NATO help Ukraine, it's unfair.
Pragmatical self-interest isn't pretty. But neither, in this case, does it particularly help Russia.
And they are going to be very much in the front line should anything kick off regarding Taiwan.
I'd appreciate it if PBers would help me out by asking what offense I committed to get blocked?
(I was, I would note, scrupulously polite.)
Inflation 8.3%, some signs of topping out. Yet the markets are in shock? Hoping for more confirmation of peaking out, presumably.
I hope NATO leaders have agreed what they would do in response to such a use of nuclear weapons, and communicated that to the Kremlin, and that it's tough and credible enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons.
Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.
The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.
We've seen it repeatedly during Covid in both deniers/antivaxxers and zero covid types, it's rife around the Ukraine war, but it's also dotted through British politics including those still convinced the nation wants Boris/Corbyn back. But the American Trumpian right are the world champions. They really do seem to believe that facts are for the little people.
They provided a lot of obsolete stuff early on, but have taken many months to be persuaded to send the more desired stuff (eg the Gepards), and are still refusing what would be most useful now - Marders and Leopards.
Ukraine has offered to purchase the latter, so it's not a matter of money.
Healthcare market, my ass.
Earlier last week I had a dream that I was having lunch with Liz Truss. Details are fuzzy, indeterminate restaurant (not a Spoons, not that I'd know what one of those looked like), it was only lunch, and ISTR that no one recognised her.
It feels like the end of an era but I can't put my finger on exactly why.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/582272-cbo-democrats-package-saves-about-160b-on-drug-prices/
And is it likely to be much of a long term benefit for them if the war is soon over ?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-seek-to-counter-west-in-first-in-person-meeting-since-ukraine-war-began-11663069369
"The meeting, which is expected to take place this week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan, comes as Russia loses ground in the war Mr. Putin started nearly seven months ago. Ukraine said it has retaken 3,500 square miles of territory held by Russian forces since the start of an offensive earlier this month.
The meeting will mark Mr. Xi’s first trip out of China since Covid-19 began spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and is intended to signal Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow and its willingness to stand up to Washington."
Not saying you are wrong, more wanting to know why you think you are right.
I think people have underestimated what his administration might achieve.
Because Unique British Requirements (TM)
Their "dream" scenario is for the West to be fractured, slow growing, but also wealthy enough to continue to buy China's goods.
It is not in their interests for a global recession. Nor for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
So what do they say to Putin? (Bearing in mind, of course, that his days may be numbered.)
Apart from anything else, we're talking LNG versus pipeline gas. The strategic calculus is, as you've yourself pointed out, rather different for the two.
I'm not applauding them for this, but neither do I condemn them.
And without their Aegis vessels and submarines, US strategy in the Pacific, particularly with respect to Taiwan, is screwed.
Let them alone to build a few more of these:
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/06/japan-to-build-two-massive-20000-ton-missile-defense-warships-indian-carrier-commissions
⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.
An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515
If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.
I guess a lot depends on what China knows/thinks might happen if he is no longer in position - whatever the cause.
And I really hope it is.
The one on currently is talking about the need for penile bending and stretching, as part of the regime along with the medication being pitched as a solution for PD, and is illustrated with a screen full of carrots flexing this way and that. At breakfast time.
The supply of the Gepards - which are essentially a Leopard I chassis - makes arguments about Ukraine not being able to operate them moot. It's possible, as claimed, that the kit in storage would just take too much effort to ready for use, but I can't see that being a problem which would last 6 months.
And there's also a similar question around the US Abrams.
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukraine_called_on_us_and_germany_to_provide_abrams_and_leopard_2_how_realistic_it_is-4094.html
Again, I can't really see why this couldn't be supplied, given they were (eventually) happy to send HIMARS.
Realistically, Germany or the US are the only two suppliers for now.
- everything needing to be airmobile.
- can't get much capability onto a transport plane
- can't afford the massive air fleet to actually get a large formation anywhere.
meanwhile, no point in maintaining/updating - because we are going to find a way to break the laws of physics any day now and come up with a new design that does it all.
Waste of time and resources.
I really hope that is not the reason for the panic, if there is one.
Appropriate, given the ECB is full of useless dicks, but disconcerting to those of us who are perfectly happy with our personal performance.
I hope they are smart enough to realise that.
(Though any bomb would be awful for those stood next to it.)