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CON & LAB now level pegging in the GE most seats betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageCON & LAB now level pegging in the GE most seats betting – politicalbetting.com

The chart shows the next general election most seats betting and as can be seen from that the first time both Labour and the Tories are placed at exactly 50% each.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    edited September 13
    Matthew the First.

    (Again)
  • MattW said:

    Matthew the First.

    (Again)

    First to write new thread on the old thread.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    MattW said:

    Matthew the First.

    (Again)

    So, the Second?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717

    MattW said:

    Matthew the First.

    (Again)

    First to write new thread on the old thread.
    Second best strategy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited September 13
    I'm not a great fan of FPT-ing or brown-nosing but some faint praise of OGH is due, and a painful reminder for anyone who lost money on the tip:-

    So there is still time for Liz Truss to make a first impression, but it is astonishing that my focus group (consisting of me) has no firm opinion of Truss despite her having been in government for ages; literally so! OGH tipped Liz Truss at 50/1 to be next prime minister — halfway through David Cameron's first term!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    edited September 13
    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341

    MattW said:

    Matthew the First.

    (Again)

    First to write new thread on the old thread.
    That would count as mission accomplished in Moscow....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,081

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    Feels like a decade in a week type of week.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,602

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    If there are tens of thousands of Russian prisoners in Ukraine, then that call becomes much harder for him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,226

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    TBF chemical weapons concern me much more than nuclear; they are much more deniable and his regime have a track record of using them.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,633
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    I thought at one point that they were going to help by ensuring a decent amount of Russian troops weren't available in Ukraine by exerting pressure on the Kuril's - but they seem to have gone very quiet on that front as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    TBF chemical weapons concern me much more than nuclear; they are much more deniable and his regime have a track record of using them.
    The confused state of the battlefield - who holds what when - might have been more of a factor.

    Plus the moment they go beyond the pale, they lose China. China will not risk losing western markets through boycotts, by supporting a nuke-using Putin.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,530
    edited September 13

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    A post like this would have received howls of derision this time last year.

    One of PB's great received wisdoms was that Angela Merkel was a towering figure and a political genius.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,160
    Mr Jessop,

    "TBF chemical weapons concern me much more than nuclear; they are much more deniable and his regime have a track record of using them."

    The fact he has history with chemical weapons suggests no one will be fooled except for the Russian public (and Jeremy Corbyn, of course). Still that might be enough.
  • MISTY said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    A post like this would have received howls of derision this time last year.

    One of PB's great received wisdoms was that Angela Merkel was a towering figure and a political genius.
    Only amongst left wing Remainers.

    Pretty sure most PB Tories, both Leave and Remain, had a far more nuanced view on Merkel.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
    Yes - the net phase of the bio-tech revolution will be quite startling, I think.

    Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.

    In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
  • HYUFD said:
    Though the question is how much swingback can the Conservatives generate from here? From memory they need to be two percent ahead of Labour to have a tiny majority- more if there's a tactical squeeze? Though provided Lib+Lab is more than Con+DUP, Starmer will be happy enough.

    I'm guessing that there will be less swingback than usual next time, because the economic cycle isn't going to be in the right place, despite Truss and Kwarteng's best efforts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,242
    Charles looks like he is greatly appreciating the political lecture from this NI speaker guy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,242

    I'm not a great fan of FPT-ing or brown-nosing but some faint praise of OGH is due, and a painful reminder for anyone who lost money on the tip:-

    So there is still time for Liz Truss to make a first impression, but it is astonishing that my focus group (consisting of me) has no firm opinion of Truss despite her having been in government for ages; literally so! OGH tipped Liz Truss at 50/1 to be next prime minister — halfway through David Cameron's first term!

    You can tip a horse without having to hold a view about its personality and character….
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    edited September 13
    Lol, ArmchairWarlord, a former Us army officer now popular pro-Russia Twitter cheerleader who has spent the last week trying to spin Russia's capitulation in Kharkiv as a strategic brilliance has thrown on the towel, announced they've stopped posting on Twitter and locked their account.

    He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Although, as we've discovered, the fact that we don't import gas from Russia hasn't protected us.

    Indeed, the places most fucked by Russian gas not being sent to Europe are poor countries that are being outbid got LNG cargos.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    ...

    MISTY said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    A post like this would have received howls of derision this time last year.

    One of PB's great received wisdoms was that
    Angela Merkel was a towering figure and a political genius.
    Only amongst left wing Remainers.

    Pretty sure most PB Tories, both Leave and Remain, had a far more nuanced view on Merkel.
    Left wing Remainers are Christian Democrats?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    An example of the mind warp of the last week. Couldnt sleep last night so spent a good 2 hours composing in my head a withering comedy routine based around the song 'Dignity' by Deacon Blue.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,847
    edited September 13

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    I read Germany has actually provided a great deal of weapons. They seem to be getting bad press of the back of initial delays?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
    Yes - the net phase of the bio-tech revolution will be quite startling, I think.

    Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.

    In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
    They're not exactly cheap in the UK:
    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta400/documents/final-appraisal-determination-document

    But they do represent value.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 95
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
    Locking Russia into long term bad deals kind of seems like a good thing.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,364
    rcs1000 said:

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    If there are tens of thousands of Russian prisoners in Ukraine, then that call becomes much harder for him.
    He's given no indication thus far of caring much about the lives of the soldiery he's feeding into the meat grinder.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 844

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Brexiteers only have 2 gears, why does the EU force all member countries do the same things and why does the EU allow member countries to do things differently. Lots of grinding, mind..
    That's still twice as many gears as Scottish nationalists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,847
    Alistair said:

    Lol, ArmchairWarlord, a former Us army officer now popular pro-Russia Twitter cheerleader who has spent the last week trying to spin Russia's capitulation in Kharkiv as a strategic brilliance has thrown on the towel, announced they've stopped posting on Twitter and locked their account.

    He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.

    Whilst things might well stabilise, the Russian official line seems to be stuck between

    1) it's all still going according to plan and Donbas was the key; and

    2) How dare beastly NATO help Ukraine, it's unfair.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
    Indeed.
    Pragmatical self-interest isn't pretty. But neither, in this case, does it particularly help Russia.

    And they are going to be very much in the front line should anything kick off regarding Taiwan.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,364

    I'm not a great fan of FPT-ing or brown-nosing but some faint praise of OGH is due, and a painful reminder for anyone who lost money on the tip:-

    So there is still time for Liz Truss to make a first impression, but it is astonishing that my focus group (consisting of me) has no firm opinion of Truss despite her having been in government for ages; literally so! OGH tipped Liz Truss at 50/1 to be next prime minister — halfway through David Cameron's first term!

    What were the odds on her being the next-but-two PM?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Alistair said:

    Lol, ArmchairWarlord, a former Us army officer now popular pro-Russia Twitter cheerleader who has spent the last week trying to spin Russia's capitulation in Kharkiv as a strategic brilliance has thrown on the towel, announced they've stopped posting on Twitter and locked their account.

    He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.

    I attempted to engage another pro-Russian Twitter guy, but he has now blocked me:



    I'd appreciate it if PBers would help me out by asking what offense I committed to get blocked?

    (I was, I would note, scrupulously polite.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,242
    edited September 13
    Wow, the Dow just dropped about 700 points instantly on publication of the US August inflation report.

    Inflation 8.3%, some signs of topping out. Yet the markets are in shock? Hoping for more confirmation of peaking out, presumably.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    The Telegraph podcast mentioned the possibility of a nuclear strike on Snake Island, as a coercive demonstration that Russia's nuclear weapons worked and they were prepared to use them.

    I hope NATO leaders have agreed what they would do in response to such a use of nuclear weapons, and communicated that to the Kremlin, and that it's tough and credible enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,143
    Alistair said:

    Lol, ArmchairWarlord, a former Us army officer now popular pro-Russia Twitter cheerleader who has spent the last week trying to spin Russia's capitulation in Kharkiv as a strategic brilliance has thrown on the towel, announced they've stopped posting on Twitter and locked their account.

    He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.

    It's a feature of some people in politics and social media that I've never been able to get my head around. There seems to be a small community of ideologues on all sides of politics who are immune - almost proudly so - to any evidence contradicting their world view.

    We've seen it repeatedly during Covid in both deniers/antivaxxers and zero covid types, it's rife around the Ukraine war, but it's also dotted through British politics including those still convinced the nation wants Boris/Corbyn back. But the American Trumpian right are the world champions. They really do seem to believe that facts are for the little people.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    Cookie said:

    I'm not a great fan of FPT-ing or brown-nosing but some faint praise of OGH is due, and a painful reminder for anyone who lost money on the tip:-

    So there is still time for Liz Truss to make a first impression, but it is astonishing that my focus group (consisting of me) has no firm opinion of Truss despite her having been in government for ages; literally so! OGH tipped Liz Truss at 50/1 to be next prime minister — halfway through David Cameron's first term!

    What were the odds on her being the next-but-two PM?
    A dead cert, I'd say.
  • Driver said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Brexiteers only have 2 gears, why does the EU force all member countries do the same things and why does the EU allow member countries to do things differently. Lots of grinding, mind..
    That's still twice as many gears as Scottish nationalists.
    Zinger!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    kle4 said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    I read Germany has actually provided a great deal of weapons. They seem to be getting bad press of the back of initial delays?
    I think it's more a policy disagreement than a matter of the amount.

    They provided a lot of obsolete stuff early on, but have taken many months to be persuaded to send the more desired stuff (eg the Gepards), and are still refusing what would be most useful now - Marders and Leopards.
    Ukraine has offered to purchase the latter, so it's not a matter of money.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
    Yes - the net phase of the bio-tech revolution will be quite startling, I think.

    Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.

    In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
    They're not exactly cheap in the UK:
    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta400/documents/final-appraisal-determination-document

    But they do represent value.
    The difference is that in the US any attempt at collective bargaining for prices is forbidden in law.

    Healthcare market, my ass.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    They don't want them ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,988
    For all those who have dreamed of HMQ since her death I have a confession.

    Earlier last week I had a dream that I was having lunch with Liz Truss. Details are fuzzy, indeterminate restaurant (not a Spoons, not that I'd know what one of those looked like), it was only lunch, and ISTR that no one recognised her.

    It feels like the end of an era but I can't put my finger on exactly why.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
    Yes - the net phase of the bio-tech revolution will be quite startling, I think.

    Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.

    In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
    They're not exactly cheap in the UK:
    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta400/documents/final-appraisal-determination-document

    But they do represent value.
    The difference is that in the US any attempt at collective bargaining for prices is forbidden in law.

    Healthcare market, my ass.
    No longer 'any' attempt.
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/582272-cbo-democrats-package-saves-about-160b-on-drug-prices/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited September 13
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Lol, ArmchairWarlord, a former Us army officer now popular pro-Russia Twitter cheerleader who has spent the last week trying to spin Russia's capitulation in Kharkiv as a strategic brilliance has thrown on the towel, announced they've stopped posting on Twitter and locked their account.

    He's at least slightly more honest thanbthe pro-Russians who seemlessly switched from "Izyum is in no danger, it strategically hugely important and concealed reinforcements will trap the Ukrainians" to "we never wanted Kharkiv anyways" in the space of 4 hours withour an ounce of shame.

    I attempted to engage another pro-Russian Twitter guy, but he has now blocked me:

    I'd appreciate it if PBers would help me out by asking what offense I committed to get blocked?

    Rational argument ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,143

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    The Telegraph podcast mentioned the possibility of a nuclear strike on Snake Island, as a coercive demonstration that Russia's nuclear weapons worked and they were prepared to use them.

    I hope NATO leaders have agreed what they would do in response to such a use of nuclear weapons, and communicated that to the Kremlin, and that it's tough and credible enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons.
    A NATO response that is a complete surprise, rests on unbelievably sensitive intelligence and implies that they might actually be able to neutralise Russia's nuclear deterrent through infiltration at the top level would be ideal. Would make him pause and then send him into a paranoid witch hunt. No idea if we have that capability.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited September 13
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
    Well they need the gas, and net/net it's probably less beneficial to Russia than their bidding up the prices on the world market along with the rest of us.

    And is it likely to be much of a long term benefit for them if the war is soon over ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    edited September 13
    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    Other expectations and outcomes remain available
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122

    Thing that worries me the most about Ukraine now is whether Vlad goes nuclear or not, if not through tactical strikes on the battlefield then a show of strength over the Black Sea or similar.

    If you are giving him the choice of being at risk of being deposed or rolling the dice, I wouldn’t bet on him choosing to go quietly. I guess we just have to hope the military apparatus is already preparing itself for that eventuality and to refuse any such orders.

    The Telegraph podcast mentioned the possibility of a nuclear strike on Snake Island, as a coercive demonstration that Russia's nuclear weapons worked and they were prepared to use them.

    I hope NATO leaders have agreed what they would do in response to such a use of nuclear weapons, and communicated that to the Kremlin, and that it's tough and credible enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons.
    Ooohhh... I know this one... Is the answer "surrender"?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,602
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    I read Germany has actually provided a great deal of weapons. They seem to be getting bad press of the back of initial delays?
    I think it's more a policy disagreement than a matter of the amount.

    They provided a lot of obsolete stuff early on, but have taken many months to be persuaded to send the more desired stuff (eg the Gepards), and are still refusing what would be most useful now - Marders and Leopards.
    Ukraine has offered to purchase the latter, so it's not a matter of money.
    Clearly there is reluctance, but as said on previous thread Germany has said it doesn't want to go it alone and be the only country to supply modern western battle tanks, so assume this is actually a NATO wide policy. Presumably the US views it as an escalation - otherwise Ukraine would already have some?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 427
    Has there been a discussion about the timing of Putin's visit to Uzbekistan to meet Xi, in relation to possible 'trouble at home'?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-seek-to-counter-west-in-first-in-person-meeting-since-ukraine-war-began-11663069369

    "The meeting, which is expected to take place this week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan, comes as Russia loses ground in the war Mr. Putin started nearly seven months ago. Ukraine said it has retaken 3,500 square miles of territory held by Russian forces since the start of an offensive earlier this month.

    The meeting will mark Mr. Xi’s first trip out of China since Covid-19 began spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and is intended to signal Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow and its willingness to stand up to Washington."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited September 13

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
    I think Dura was just trolling you/us; it wasn't a serious suggestion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
    Well they need the gas, and net/net it's probably less beneficial to Russia than their bidding up the prices on the world market along with the rest of us.

    And is it likely to be much of a long term benefit for them if the war is soon over ?
    Fair points: but, they would equally apply to Europe continuing to buy Russian gas, no?
  • Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    I agree that it is a good thing for Labour, that Johnson has gone, for some inexplicable reason he definitely had his solid supporters, but I am not convinced that the labour vote is as solid as it seems, I find it unlikely they will poll 42 % in a general election, but of course depending on the level of the Tory vote, they might not have to
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    You are very certain on this -why are you so sure? Its possible, yes, but its also possible that the war in Ukraine resolves, inflation peaks and possibly also sees reductions in prices and you never know, Truss may suprise.

    Not saying you are wrong, more wanting to know why you think you are right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Astonishingly good data for a subset of colon cancer patients.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/esmo/100652

    It's only around 10-15% of those with the disease, but for them, just remarkable.
    ...And with a median follow-up of 13.1 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 100%, she said at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual congress here, pointing out that the expected rate for this patient population would be in the vicinity of 15% by this point...

    Every chance those results will carry forward in time.

    Classic personalized medicine. Really nice stuff, and hopefully we can keep pushing at the sub-types of cancers like this. In the it will be the tough ones such as triple negative breast cancer that will remain.
    Makes Biden's announcement rather less silly than Nixon's War of Cancer of fifty years ago.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_cancer

    60 years ago, President Kennedy said that America chose to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard. Because that challenge is one we were unwilling to postpone.

    Today, our moonshot is ending cancer as we know it. And it's something we can do together.

    https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1569493839466864641
    Yes - the net phase of the bio-tech revolution will be quite startling, I think.

    Especially the potential to make treatments massively more effective while reducing side effects massively.

    In American healthcare it will be a disaster, since the prices charged will go to the moon.
    That was also part of the reason behind Biden's bio-manufacturing Presidential order which was announced yesterday.
    I think people have underestimated what his administration might achieve.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
    I think Dura was just trolling you/us; it wasn't a serious suggestion.
    Maybe. But it’s also a perfect example of how defence procurement has been fucked up. We are the proud owners of tanks that no one wants because of incompatibility.

    Because Unique British Requirements (TM)
  • mickydroy said:

    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    I agree that it is a good thing for Labour, that Johnson has gone, for some inexplicable reason he definitely had his solid supporters, but I am not convinced that the labour vote is as solid as it seems, I find it unlikely they will poll 42 % in a general election, but of course depending on the level of the Tory vote, they might not have to
    As OGH and others have pointed out many times the big obstacle preventing a Labour majority is Scotland. Until they show signs of recovery there it is hard to see how they can win an 'overall'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122
    ohnotnow said:

    Has there been a discussion about the timing of Putin's visit to Uzbekistan to meet Xi, in relation to possible 'trouble at home'?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-seek-to-counter-west-in-first-in-person-meeting-since-ukraine-war-began-11663069369

    "The meeting, which is expected to take place this week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan, comes as Russia loses ground in the war Mr. Putin started nearly seven months ago. Ukraine said it has retaken 3,500 square miles of territory held by Russian forces since the start of an offensive earlier this month.

    The meeting will mark Mr. Xi’s first trip out of China since Covid-19 began spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and is intended to signal Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow and its willingness to stand up to Washington."

    Leave aside morality for a second: what is China's move here?

    Their "dream" scenario is for the West to be fractured, slow growing, but also wealthy enough to continue to buy China's goods.

    It is not in their interests for a global recession. Nor for Russia to use nuclear weapons.

    So what do they say to Putin? (Bearing in mind, of course, that his days may be numbered.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
    I think Dura was just trolling you/us; it wasn't a serious suggestion.
    Maybe. But it’s also a perfect example of how defence procurement has been fucked up. We are the proud owners of tanks that no one wants because of incompatibility.

    Because Unique British Requirements (TM)
    And the SP artillery that does use standard NATO 155mm is not being kept up to date/in good order.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    The people I would most complain about are the Japanese.

    Despite depending on the West's security blanket, they have given little to nothing to Ukraine, while using the invasion to secure long term cheap gas supplies from Russia.

    That genuinely is evil.
    They are part of the 'West's' security blanket.
    And an essential part of the alliance with the US to keep Taiwan independent.
    They have selfishly chosen to use the Ukraine war as an opportunity to sign new long term LNG import contacts with Russia at low prices.
    Well they need the gas, and net/net it's probably less beneficial to Russia than their bidding up the prices on the world market along with the rest of us.

    And is it likely to be much of a long term benefit for them if the war is soon over ?
    Fair points: but, they would equally apply to Europe continuing to buy Russian gas, no?
    Not exactly, no.
    Apart from anything else, we're talking LNG versus pipeline gas. The strategic calculus is, as you've yourself pointed out, rather different for the two.

    I'm not applauding them for this, but neither do I condemn them.

    And without their Aegis vessels and submarines, US strategy in the Pacific, particularly with respect to Taiwan, is screwed.
    Let them alone to build a few more of these:
    https://news.usni.org/2022/09/06/japan-to-build-two-massive-20000-ton-missile-defense-warships-indian-carrier-commissions
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    edited September 13
    mickydroy said:

    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    I agree that it is a good thing for Labour, that Johnson has gone, for some inexplicable reason he definitely had his solid supporters, but I am not convinced that the labour vote is as solid as it seems, I find it unlikely they will poll 42 % in a general election, but of course depending on the level of the Tory vote, they might not have to
    There will certainly be a stop Labour element, they aren't a cuddly puppy that everyone adores. A lot may hang on how strong stop Labour is versus Tory defection and non voting - that may determine, for example, which of the coin flip results of this thread transpires, especially if Scotland remains SNP dominated
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,817
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,122

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 427
    rcs1000 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Has there been a discussion about the timing of Putin's visit to Uzbekistan to meet Xi, in relation to possible 'trouble at home'?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-and-russias-putin-seek-to-counter-west-in-first-in-person-meeting-since-ukraine-war-began-11663069369

    "The meeting, which is expected to take place this week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan, comes as Russia loses ground in the war Mr. Putin started nearly seven months ago. Ukraine said it has retaken 3,500 square miles of territory held by Russian forces since the start of an offensive earlier this month.

    The meeting will mark Mr. Xi’s first trip out of China since Covid-19 began spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and is intended to signal Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow and its willingness to stand up to Washington."

    Leave aside morality for a second: what is China's move here?

    Their "dream" scenario is for the West to be fractured, slow growing, but also wealthy enough to continue to buy China's goods.

    It is not in their interests for a global recession. Nor for Russia to use nuclear weapons.

    So what do they say to Putin? (Bearing in mind, of course, that his days may be numbered.)
    "How about you knock it on the head, mate?" Or possibly "If you want to retire in peace to a lovely mansion in a nice bit of China - the offers there. Just saying."

    I guess a lot depends on what China knows/thinks might happen if he is no longer in position - whatever the cause.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,692

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Incredible if true.

    And I really hope it is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    If the Kherson garrison surrenders (or kills itself in red-on-red fights, as reported) then Crimea is wide open. They may as well escape before HIMARS brings down the Kerch bridge leaving them trapped.

  • WillGWillG Posts: 95
    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,242

    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    You are very certain on this -why are you so sure? Its possible, yes, but its also possible that the war in Ukraine resolves, inflation peaks and possibly also sees reductions in prices and you never know, Truss may suprise.

    Not saying you are wrong, more wanting to know why you think you are right.
    Her last point is almost certainly wrong, because the reality wouldn’t have been that Johnson continued as a somehow reformed character and then rediscovered his mojo come 2024, but that the next scandal would have come along and he’d have been forced out for some other piece of bad behaviour with the Tories more divided and electorally damaged than they are now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    The most seats market is wrong on this. The value is on Labour.

    Don't follow Mike's scepticism on this. He hasn't been sceptical when it comes to LibDem successes and shouldn't be on this occasion.

    The tories are going to get an absolute shellacking, as TSE has rightly suggested. And it will be far worse than would have been the case if Johnson had clung on.

    You are very certain on this -why are you so sure? Its possible, yes, but its also possible that the war in Ukraine resolves, inflation peaks and possibly also sees reductions in prices and you never know, Truss may suprise.

    Not saying you are wrong, more wanting to know why you think you are right.
    Her last point is almost certainly wrong, because the reality wouldn’t have been that Johnson continued as a somehow reformed character and then rediscovered his mojo come 2024, but that the next scandal would have come along and he’d have been forced out for some other piece of bad behaviour with the Tories more divided and electorally damaged than they are now.
    Yes - the Johnson of 2024 was not the Johnson of 2019. Thats why he had to go. If it hadn't been this year, it would have happened as he cannot change his nature.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Anyway, Russia is sparing Germany's blushes in providing equipment to Ukraine. The totals of captured kit so far this week includes 49 tanks, 28 artillery pieces and 11 "Grad" MLRS systems. A total of 300 items.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,242
    I doubt I will ever get used to these medical adverts on US TV.

    The one on currently is talking about the need for penile bending and stretching, as part of the regime along with the medication being pitched as a solution for PD, and is illustrated with a screen full of carrots flexing this way and that. At breakfast time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited September 13
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    I read Germany has actually provided a great deal of weapons. They seem to be getting bad press of the back of initial delays?
    I think it's more a policy disagreement than a matter of the amount.

    They provided a lot of obsolete stuff early on, but have taken many months to be persuaded to send the more desired stuff (eg the Gepards), and are still refusing what would be most useful now - Marders and Leopards.
    Ukraine has offered to purchase the latter, so it's not a matter of money.
    Clearly there is reluctance, but as said on previous thread Germany has said it doesn't want to go it alone and be the only country to supply modern western battle tanks, so assume this is actually a NATO wide policy. Presumably the US views it as an escalation - otherwise Ukraine would already have some?
    It's something of a mystery, but it's been denied that there is any such NATO policy veto.
    The supply of the Gepards - which are essentially a Leopard I chassis - makes arguments about Ukraine not being able to operate them moot. It's possible, as claimed, that the kit in storage would just take too much effort to ready for use, but I can't see that being a problem which would last 6 months.

    And there's also a similar question around the US Abrams.
    https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukraine_called_on_us_and_germany_to_provide_abrams_and_leopard_2_how_realistic_it_is-4094.html
    Again, I can't really see why this couldn't be supplied, given they were (eventually) happy to send HIMARS.

    Realistically, Germany or the US are the only two suppliers for now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
    I think Dura was just trolling you/us; it wasn't a serious suggestion.
    Maybe. But it’s also a perfect example of how defence procurement has been fucked up. We are the proud owners of tanks that no one wants because of incompatibility.

    Because Unique British Requirements (TM)
    And the SP artillery that does use standard NATO 155mm is not being kept up to date/in good order.
    Largely because of an idiotic argument about

    - everything needing to be airmobile.
    - can't get much capability onto a transport plane
    - can't afford the massive air fleet to actually get a large formation anywhere.

    meanwhile, no point in maintaining/updating - because we are going to find a way to break the laws of physics any day now and come up with a new design that does it all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kamski said:

    Again, reports - but it is being reported that the Russian troops are surrendering in Snigirevka. That means the road to Kherson is open.

    https://twitter.com/IlluminatiUa/status/1569653288152203264

    With supply lines cut, it has been said for several days the garrison in Kherson is running low on ammunition with no chance of reinforcement. There has been talk (by the Ukrainians) of surrender terms being negotiated.

    If Kherson falls without a fight, then the Special Military Operation is effectively at an end. It also means Ukraine can walk into Crimea. Taking the weaponry of 20,000 of Russia's best equipped troops with them.

    It should now be quite clear that if you want the war over quickly, then supplying arms to Ukraine is the way to achieve that end.
    Indeed. Unless you are Germany, where you still seem to not to want to piss off Putin. Or his successor.

    History is certainly coming at us fast this September. And not even half way through it yet
    You seem to be obsessed with Germany, which has supplied more weapons to Ukraine than anyone except the US and UK. Try mixing it up a bit and complain about Italy, for example, once in a while just for a change.
    Germany could have had Leopard tanks on a train and through Poland and into Ukraine within 24 hours.

    It's not as if they don't have practice... A fact that seems to hang heavily around their necks and stopping them doing the right thing.

    That, and fears over their energy supplies. The Germans should atone not for their WW2 memories, but for their far more recent fucking over of Europe's energy security with Nordstream.

    So yes, I think Germany needs to do something to make amends. Fast.
    Why doesn't Trussed Up send the Ukrainians some CR2 tanks? She's got 400+ and only 48 are getting fully upgraded to CR3.
    Maybe all those Ukrainians we are training can drive home in one....
    Aside from maintenance levels, there is the issue of ammunition. The U.K. military stupidly held onto to rifled tank guns long after the rest of NATO went smooth bore.
    I think Dura was just trolling you/us; it wasn't a serious suggestion.
    Maybe. But it’s also a perfect example of how defence procurement has been fucked up. We are the proud owners of tanks that no one wants because of incompatibility.

    Because Unique British Requirements (TM)
    I've been saying for a while that we should scrap them.
    Waste of time and resources.
  • IanB2 said:

    I doubt I will ever get used to these medical adverts on US TV.

    The one on currently is talking about the need for penile bending and stretching, as part of the regime along with the medication being pitched as a solution for PD, and is illustrated with a screen full of carrots flexing this way and that. At breakfast time.

    'No sausage today, thanks.'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,373
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Wouldn't giving up Crimea amount to political suicide for Putin, though?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Or - and I hate to say it - it could be wiped out in one Russian nuclear strike. Which would leave it uninhabitable and the gas deposits off its seabeds inaccessible, not to mention cutting Ukraine's seaways.

    I really hope that is not the reason for the panic, if there is one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Plus, if Crimea goes, there is no point in having that land bridge to it through Melitopol, Berdyans'k and Mariupol that deprived Ukraine of the coast.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140
    edited September 13
    IanB2 said:

    I doubt I will ever get used to these medical adverts on US TV.

    The one on currently is talking about the need for penile bending and stretching, as part of the regime along with the medication being pitched as a solution for PD, and is illustrated with a screen full of carrots flexing this way and that. At breakfast time.

    You don't watch the Tests on Sky? They're full of adverts for drugs dealing with erectile dysfunction.

    Appropriate, given the ECB is full of useless dicks, but disconcerting to those of us who are perfectly happy with our personal performance.
  • Chris said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Wouldn't giving up Crimea amount to political suicide for Putin, though?
    'Political' may be redundant there..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Or - and I hate to say it - it could be wiped out in one Russian nuclear strike. Which would leave it uninhabitable and the gas deposits off its seabeds inaccessible, not to mention cutting Ukraine's seaways.

    I really hope that is not the reason for the panic, if there is one.
    The use of nuclear weapons would make Russia's give Russia a decades long pariah status, which would make current relations with the rest of the world (including China) look positively warm.
    I hope they are smart enough to realise that.
  • FossFoss Posts: 565
    ydoethur said:

    Or - and I hate to say it - it could be wiped out in one Russian nuclear strike. Which would leave it uninhabitable and the gas deposits off its seabeds inaccessible, not to mention cutting Ukraine's seaways.

    I really hope that is not the reason for the panic, if there is one.

    Would that not depend on the size and detonation height of the bomb(s)?

    (Though any bomb would be awful for those stood next to it.)
  • WillGWillG Posts: 95
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

    An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1569659989417152515

    Russia fleeing Crimea?

    If true (and that's a big "if"), it's massive.

    Crimea is potentially very dangerous for Russia. The bridge East can easily be destroyed by HIMARs once the Ukrainians are in range and the Northern exit will be closed rapidly after the Ukrainians take Kherson. There could be tens of thousands of troops cut off and slowly pummeled.
    Or - and I hate to say it - it could be wiped out in one Russian nuclear strike. Which would leave it uninhabitable and the gas deposits off its seabeds inaccessible, not to mention cutting Ukraine's seaways.

    I really hope that is not the reason for the panic, if there is one.
    The use of nuclear weapons would make Russia's give Russia a decades long pariah status, which would make current relations with the rest of the world (including China) look positively warm.
    I hope they are smart enough to realise that.
    And the elite are plugged in enough to the West to know this. The order to do that could be the thing that causes Putin to get deposed.
This discussion has been closed.