politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of private polling
For we followers and obsessives of opinion polls, there are two words that grab our attention like no others, those two words are “private polling”, there’s some belief that “private polling” is much more sophisticated and accurate, than the normal public polling, but is it?
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"And an analysis of their findings by two leading academics in New York said the Yes campaign would win by 54 per cent to 46."
I would not want to be the academic who had to tell him they got the numbers the wrong way around ...0 -
I wonder how they can be so far out from bog-standard opinion polls.0
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POASWAS.0
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What about the private polling showing the Tories 67% ahead in the marginals that exists in Dan Hodges head?0
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Mein Fuhrer...Steiner...BannedInParis said:"And an analysis of their findings by two leading academics in New York said the Yes campaign would win by 54 per cent to 46."
I would not want to be the academic who had to tell him they got the numbers the wrong way around ...
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This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?0 -
Was this polling provided by a political consultant based in Southam by any chance?0
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A simple Excel formula typo! Happens to the best of us! *winks at TSE*BannedInParis said:"And an analysis of their findings by two leading academics in New York said the Yes campaign would win by 54 per cent to 46."
I would not want to be the academic who had to tell him they got the numbers the wrong way around ...0 -
Hello stranger....Hugh said:What about the private polling showing the Tories 67% ahead in the marginals that exists in Dan Hodges head?
just a reminder from FPT
How can you tell it's been a seriously bad week for Ed M? Here's how:
tom_watson@tom_watson·1 hr
Personally speaking this has been the most enjoyable labour conference I've ever attended. #lab140 -
What would be the polling that makes it
Labour 2/9
Ukip 3/1
In Heywood and Middleton?
If there was any I mean
40/30?0 -
Even the organ grinder's hacked off with the monkey.
'Len McCluskey, the leader of the Unite trade union which is one of Labour's biggest backers, said that the failure to mention the deficit was a "glaring omission".'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11119350/Ed-Milibands-leadership-openly-questioned-by-his-own-MPs.html0 -
What is it with Canadian pollsters....?0
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All those Quiet Bat People who got a name-check, and he forgot the key message.TheWatcher said:Even the organ grinder's hacked off with the monkey.
'Len McCluskey, the leader of the Unite trade union which is one of Labour's biggest backers, said that the failure to mention the deficit was a "glaring omission".'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11119350/Ed-Milibands-leadership-openly-questioned-by-his-own-MPs.html
That's intellectual superiority for you...0 -
@Hayley_Barlow: Ed Miliband forgets the deficit. Again! Watch the feisty interview with @JonSnowC4 on #c4news at 7pm. http://t.co/FR3UaBaKgP0
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@Andrew_ComRes: New ComRes/ITV poll out tonight: Ed M's "forgotten" speech issues - immigration & deficit - are Labour's weakest with voters0
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FPT
Today was the day when the Magic Sign was overtaken by the Mighty Machine in terms of market capitalisation:
Ladbrokes ........... £1,172.56 million
Betfair ................. £1,195.97 million
How are the once mighty now fallen! I wonder what Cyril Stein would have made of it. Of course it wouldn't have happened in his day. Judging by the following extract from his entry in Wiki the old boy who died three years ago did all right for himself and for his shareholders:
"Cyril ran his own small credit-betting office in the West End of London when (aged 28) he teamed up in 1956 with his bookmaker uncle Mark, who traded as Max Parker, to buy the venerable but failing bookmarking firm of Ladbrokes, founded in 1886, for a reported £100,000."
Wow!0 -
I find the labour party criticism of ed Miliband puzzling.
Labour are normally pretty good at getting behind the leader.0 -
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?0 -
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
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Are we talking proper pollsters, or Canadians?isam said:What would be the polling that makes it
Labour 2/9
Ukip 3/1
In Heywood and Middleton?
If there was any I mean
40/30?
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Remember the many calls for readers and advertisers to boycott of the News of the World? Presumably the people behind those calls are preparing a similar campaign against the Mirror.
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After Ed's interview yesterday, it would seem the 2 candidates for his job had good interviews today at conference -especially Yvette!!!!
Get her in as Lab leader pre-election and asap.... I need my winnings with whoever bookie it's with.0 -
Is Ed sick or something, doing the interview from a hospital bed? Is it just me, or does that look a bit weird?Scott_P said:@Hayley_Barlow: Ed Miliband forgets the deficit. Again! Watch the feisty interview with @JonSnowC4 on #c4news at 7pm. http://t.co/FR3UaBaKgP
I can only imagine the upheaval caused by politicians doing a PR stunt from places like hospitals or schools. It really annoys me, and yes they all do it.
If they really want to know about how a public body functions etc, they can do it privately and quietly and away from the cameras, and they do. All the big set piece nonsense just causes distraction of the running of the place, for what getting on the news shaking the hand of some poor sod who is ill or doing an interview from a hospital bed.0 -
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'0 -
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?0 -
Why bother to do private polls anyway?Socrates said:I wonder how they can be so far out from bog-standard opinion polls.
Presumably it must be because one thinks they are better than public polls and so they represent valuable information that gives you an advantage. Why would that be?
Perhaps because you had fed in the [private] data from your canvassing returns/other campaign data on voter contact? That's the only thing I can think of that might not be available in the public domain.
Most likely is that there is an observational bias at play here. We are only hearing about private polling that was contrary to the public polling - because it's not interesting to hear that private polls gave the same answer as public polls.0 -
The magnitude of the difference is extraordinary:
Private polling - win by 8%
Actual result - lose by 11%
An error in the lead of 19 points.
Equivalent to having polls with Lab leading by 4% and the actual result being Lab winning by 23% or Lab losing by 15%.0 -
Scanning back for a quick look at what's been said, I would not wish those academics to be marking my exam papers.BannedInParis said:"And an analysis of their findings by two leading academics in New York said the Yes campaign would win by 54 per cent to 46."
I would not want to be the academic who had to tell him they got the numbers the wrong way around ...0 -
As I have said before, quoting the Euro-fanatic Bogdanor who said that unfairness towards the English was a price worth paying, is hardly a great recommendation for any cause.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?0 -
On topic: Why on earth would you use a Canadian company to do your polling in Scotland?0
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@David_Cameron I have requested that Parliament be recalled to debate UK response to the Iraqi Govt's request for support against ISIL0
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Funny, I thought hospitals were overflowing with patients. That's certainly what the usual suspects would have us believe. Why's that expensive bed empty?FrancisUrquhart said:
Is Ed sick or something, doing the interview from a hospital bed? Is it just me, or does that look a bit weird?Scott_P said:@Hayley_Barlow: Ed Miliband forgets the deficit. Again! Watch the feisty interview with @JonSnowC4 on #c4news at 7pm. http://t.co/FR3UaBaKgP
I can only imagine the upheaval caused by politicians doing a PR stunt from places like hospitals or schools. It really annoys me, and yes they all do it.
If they really want to know about how a public body functions etc, they can do it privately and quietly and away from the cameras, and they do. All the big set piece nonsense just causes distraction of the running of the place, for what getting on the news shaking the hand of some poor sod who is ill or doing an interview from a hospital bed.
What gives Milliband and Channel 4 the right to use a publicly owned asset as a film set? Of course, I'm sure Channel 4 and the Labour Party paid a hefty location fee.
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Or anywhere!Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Why on earth would you use a Canadian company to do your polling in Scotland?
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Well, parts of Canada look very much like Scotland. Nova Scotia, for example.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: Why on earth would you use a Canadian company to do your polling in Scotland?
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I can see the logic from the private pollsters - they weren't going to get repeat business as this was a "once in a lifetime" referendum - so they kept the client happy..0
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How on Earth is it hostile to prevent the Scottish and Welsh ruling the English on stuff they get devolved?DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?
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Interestingly when news of the Canadian findings first emerged there was a certain unease among those NO people who had heard of the story through the Herald or Record. Happily I was able to quote someone on here who had checked the Canadian's credentials and had debunked them as publicity seekers with absolutely no track record.
(Take a bow PBer whose identity I've now forgotten.)0 -
He also asserted boldly and without a jot of evidence in support that the higher the turnout the more likely a win for Yes.TheWatcher said:
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'
Anything above 80% and he thought the Nationalists were home and hosed.
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To be fair to the Canucks - both ICM and Yougov had YES ahead at one point.0
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Yes - although there was a lot of head scratching about that on the day of the poll. It boiled down to high turn out = good for YES, low turn out = bad for NO.Peter_the_Punter said:
He also asserted boldly and without a jot of evidence in support that the higher the turnout the more likely a win for Yes.TheWatcher said:
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'
Anything above 80% and he thought the Nationalists were home and hosed.
Bunkum as it turned out.0 -
What I chiefly remember about Stuart was his habit of telling the rest of us, in that marvellously patronising de haut en bas way that only lefties have really mastered, that we had "no idea what is actually happening on the ground in Scotland."Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
This was usually in the form of a reproof directed at anyone who ventured to suggest that No was going to walk it and it wouldn't even be close.
He used to deliver it with a sort of pitying head shaking contempt, as though pointing out that you really had no right to call yourself interested in politics given this glaring lacuna.0 -
Tipping Point.Peter_the_Punter said:
He also asserted boldly and without a jot of evidence in support that the higher the turnout the more likely a win for Yes.TheWatcher said:
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'
Anything above 80% and he thought the Nationalists were home and hosed.0 -
That you think Stuart is a lefty speaks volumes.Bond_James_Bond said:
What I chiefly remember about Stuart was his habit of telling the rest of us, in that marvellously patronising de haut en bas way that only lefties have really masteredNeil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?0 -
You seem to have recovered from your fellow traveller nationalists getting a sound drubbing Neil old bean - that's the spirit !Neil said:
That you think Stuart is a lefty speaks volumes.Bond_James_Bond said:
What I chiefly remember about Stuart was his habit of telling the rest of us, in that marvellously patronising de haut en bas way that only lefties have really masteredNeil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?0 -
Quite a few of us thought it was bunkum before it turned out.TGOHF said:
Yes - although there was a lot of head scratching about that on the day of the poll. It boiled down to high turn out = good for YES, low turn out = bad for NO.Peter_the_Punter said:
He also asserted boldly and without a jot of evidence in support that the higher the turnout the more likely a win for Yes.TheWatcher said:
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'
Anything above 80% and he thought the Nationalists were home and hosed.
Bunkum as it turned out.
Anybody can be wrong, but he simply ignored requests to substantiate or argue his case.
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Yes, Harry, Pork and James Kelly, my fellow travellers...TGOHF said:
You seem to have recovered from your fellow traveller nationalists getting a sound drubbing Neil old bean - that's the spirit !Neil said:
That you think Stuart is a lefty speaks volumes.Bond_James_Bond said:
What I chiefly remember about Stuart was his habit of telling the rest of us, in that marvellously patronising de haut en bas way that only lefties have really masteredNeil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
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Its gone quiet because the EVfEL answer is as inadequate as the Bogdanor and Miliband proposals.DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?
Now what I want to know is if Miliband is going to give England equality and devolve to regions and Cities does that mean he is proposing to break up the NHS? Logically to address the democratic deficit properly by devolving to city and regions that is what you would have to do. Otherwise how could say the Northwest choose to get free prescriptons and say the North East choose to get extra nurses.
There is only one solution which actually gives England democratic equality and keeps the NHS whole and that is an English Parliament........0 -
Essentially it was what one might call an argumentum ad Caledoniam: "I'm right because I'm Scotch*".Peter_the_Punter said:
Quite a few of us thought it was bunkum before it turned out.TGOHF said:
Yes - although there was a lot of head scratching about that on the day of the poll. It boiled down to high turn out = good for YES, low turn out = bad for NO.Peter_the_Punter said:
He also asserted boldly and without a jot of evidence in support that the higher the turnout the more likely a win for Yes.TheWatcher said:
This was one of his best posts -Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
'The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.'
Anything above 80% and he thought the Nationalists were home and hosed.
Bunkum as it turned out.
Anybody can be wrong, but he simply ignored requests to substantiate or argue his case.
* Yes, yes, I know about Scots and Scotch. I'll call them what I like, especially now we pwn them.
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The reasons for private poll bias seem to be:
1. Distortion of questions - a private pollster has no reason to resist asking leading questions etc.
2. Selection of best results. You might have four private polls done, and leak the one that suits you best.
3. Pollster distortion - trying to please the customer by helpful rounding etc.
Number 3 seems the least likely - it would just be annoying to have a pollster who makes stuff up. Those unscrupulous enough to lie to the public can make up their own lies based on non-existent pollsters. But either 1 or 2 looks possible.0 -
2. wouldn't convinced the campaigns themselves however.NickPalmer said:The reasons for private poll bias seem to be:
1. Distortion of questions - a private pollster has no reason to resist asking leading questions etc.
2. Selection of best results. You might have four private polls done, and leak the one that suits you best.
3. Pollster distortion - trying to please the customer by helpful rounding etc.
Number 3 seems the least likely - it would just be annoying to have a pollster who makes stuff up. Those unscrupulous enough to lie to the public can make up their own lies based on non-existent pollsters. But either 1 or 2 looks possible.0 -
Probably not as I think Bogdanor is ignoring the new political reality. With greater devolution, the need to address the democratic deficit is increased. If Scotland is going to have even more areas of self-governance, then it has to accept that Scottish MPs have no right to participate in the determination of policy in those areas for the rest of the UK.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?
Labour forgets many things. It forgets that in 1997, it was elected on a promise not to bring in tuition fees for university students. It clearly forgot that when the introduce legislation implementing their u-turn. It also forgets that there was a significant backbench rebellion when meant that the measure only went through because Scottish Labour MPs voted for it - even though their own constituents were only going to be marginally affected by the policy (if at all)
With more devolution, such things are going to happen again and again. That is unacceptable in any democracy.
Yes, there are issues when the party of National Government does not carry a majority of the seats in England. But if the past 4 or so years have shown us anything, it is that parties can come together to being forward policies that carry support beyond simple party lines.
A supply and demand situation for English laws is sure a good thing if that is what is necessary for stable government for the UK as a whole.
I do not believe in an English Parliament. I do not believe in devolution to cities (or even city states.) And I certainly do not believe that the current system can continue without reform.
That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
The detail of how that is implemented is not beyond intelligent people to determine. It means co-operation, communication, collaboration - and accepting that, in a union of different nation states with different political systems, Westminster has to adapt.
And for those who bring up the idea that London having a mayoral system means that we need to account for that, they are just attempting to divert attention from the real issues. The same goes for those who talk about the difference between those MPs from coastal or inland seats, or the urban/rural divide.
England will not stand for having policy imposed by politicians who have no democratic right to do so. Just as the Scots have made it perfectly clear that they want control over many areas of policy.
We all need to adjust our thinking and our systems to reflect that reality.
Miliband stands in the way of this. And the people will see that.0 -
Whether it is or not, the question is whether it is perceived to be. One factor here would be its source. The SNP proposing ev4el is less likely to be seen as anti-Scots than an absolutely identical proposal from the Conservative Party because that party is already seen -- fairly or unfairly -- as being hostile to Scotland: the effing Tories, as the Prime Minister put it. And even if Scotland is written off, there are eight Welsh seats to defend.Socrates said:
How on Earth is it hostile to prevent the Scottish and Welsh ruling the English on stuff they get devolved?DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?
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STOP DIGGING!
@DPJHodges: If, as Ed Miliband is now claiming, his speech wasn't "prepared earlier" how did comments he never made appear in the released text?0 -
On the general subject of private polling, I don't claim to be an expert, but my understanding from conversations I've had is that it's not so much about headline voting intention, but more about trying to find out how your messages are being received, whether you need to change your approach, and whether there are weaknesses in your opponents' messaging which you can try to exploit.0
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So the Conservatives aren't allowed to do the fair thing because the Scots have a chip on their shoulder? With respect, that's a ridiculous position.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whether it is or not, the question is whether it is perceived to be. One factor here would be its source. The SNP proposing ev4el is less likely to be seen as anti-Scots than an absolutely identical proposal from the Conservative Party because that party is already seen -- fairly or unfairly -- as being hostile to Scotland: the effing Tories, as the Prime Minister put it. And even if Scotland is written off, there are eight Welsh seats to defend.Socrates said:
How on Earth is it hostile to prevent the Scottish and Welsh ruling the English on stuff they get devolved?DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?0 -
It's not private polling that's rubbish. It's Canadian polling that's rubbish.
Angus Reid and all that.0 -
No, no, no - it must be Darling as I've had him for next leader for last two years :-)Scrapheap_as_was said:After Ed's interview yesterday, it would seem the 2 candidates for his job had good interviews today at conference -especially Yvette!!!!
Get her in as Lab leader pre-election and asap.... I need my winnings with whoever bookie it's with.0 -
But EV4EL will only do that for legislative measures. For all the non-legislative changes made by the Education Secretary and the Health Secretary, the English get screwed.oxfordsimon said:That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
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Yes he frequently said he didn't know who would win - but pointed out the disparity between the polling odds (close thing) and betting odds.Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
Prize turnips for "getting it wrong" must go to "GOTV Pork" and "hopeless" malcolmg......
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No doubt the latter is plaguing OGH on his Spanish holiday, with whisky fuelled outbursts of 'Fanny' and 'Erchie' at random intervals from poolside.CarlottaVance said:
Yes he frequently said he didn't know who would win - but pointed out the disparity between the polling odds (close thing) and betting odds.Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
Prize turnips for "getting it wrong" must go to "GOTV Pork" and "hopeless" malcolmg......0 -
Do you know think that it is possible to devise some system to ensure that properly scrutiny of such matters happens?Socrates said:
But EV4EL will only do that for legislative measures. For all the non-legislative changes made by the Education Secretary and the Health Secretary, the English get screwed.oxfordsimon said:That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I believe it is.
And it is unthinkable, going forward, that an Education Secretary will not represent an English constituency.
0 -
Poor hapless Pork. The indignity of seeing his sparing partner Seth vindicated when Lansley became leader followed by getting the Scottish referendum badly wrong because he understood less about what was going on than the out-of-touch-fop-twits.CarlottaVance said:
Yes he frequently said he didn't know who would win - but pointed out the disparity between the polling odds (close thing) and betting odds.Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
Prize turnips for "getting it wrong" must go to "GOTV Pork" and "hopeless" malcolmg......
0 -
Eh? Miliband told ITV this morning that it was prepared earlier, and I quote:Scott_P said:STOP DIGGING!
@DPJHodges: If, as Ed Miliband is now claiming, his speech wasn't "prepared earlier" how did comments he never made appear in the released text?
"What I try and do is I try and write a speech and then I use it as the basis for what I want to say to the country."
Please, please, when are the grown-ups coming to sort all this out?0 -
Request: please could someone with a relatively large Twitter following ask Lord Ashcroft whether he has any plans to commission a poll in Heywood and Middleton.
I tweeted him a few days ago but he didn't reply, which isn't surprising since I only have about 200 followers.0 -
No, there are two aspects to it. One is what should be done; once you've moved beyond sloganising, it isn't obvious: hence Hague's committee. The other is getting elected, and that is where perceptions of voters matter. Both these factors suggest it will be kicked into the long grass.Socrates said:
So the Conservatives aren't allowed to do the fair thing because the Scots have a chip on their shoulder? With respect, that's a ridiculous position.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whether it is or not, the question is whether it is perceived to be. One factor here would be its source. The SNP proposing ev4el is less likely to be seen as anti-Scots than an absolutely identical proposal from the Conservative Party because that party is already seen -- fairly or unfairly -- as being hostile to Scotland: the effing Tories, as the Prime Minister put it. And even if Scotland is written off, there are eight Welsh seats to defend.Socrates said:
How on Earth is it hostile to prevent the Scottish and Welsh ruling the English on stuff they get devolved?DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?0 -
"Mitt Romney’s internal polling in 2012, showed him believing he was on course to win the Presidency"
I think this misrepresents Mr Romney's position. The US pollsters results fell into two groups, the variation being on who they thought would be the electorate. The pro-dem pollsters were right, the pro-gop pollsters were wrong.
You can see something similar in current UK polls. There is a high-UKIP group, and a low-UKIP group.0 -
Scott
"forgotten" speech issues - "
Ben said yesterday that party leaders doing a speech without notes should be cast into a bottomless pit. Very prescient of him as usual0 -
Is flouncing off in a cloud of sanctimony more courageous?Socrates said:
No, just a coward.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?0 -
Dickson's principle reason for posting on PB was to gloat ghoulishly. A vile defect that I fully share.Socrates said:
No, just a coward.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
0 -
To be fair to Stuart, he's not a bad bloke. He was clearly very passionate about a YES win. Although I found some of his arguments extraordinary, and unbelievable, I genuinely enjoyed his presence here. He made a bit of a fool of himself with his "tipping point" episode, but who hasn't?
If it meant that much to him, I expect he's still trying to come to terms with the loss in Scotland. I do hope he pulls himself together soon, and comes back on here.
Inevitably, he will have to deal with the ribbing and the pillorying, but there are some insights of his I miss already.0 -
Ed M on Look North promises a fairer deal for Yorkshire compared to the rest of England and is deeply sorry on behalf of the Labour Party for Rotherham and talks of having a proper enquiry... Accuses UKIP of exploiting the issue0
-
The budgets for specific devolved areas are currently developed as part of the overall annual Government budget by the Chancellor (formerly two Scots in succession) and the Chief Secretary of the Treasury (two Scots in succession). The budget is and has to be voted on by all members of the House giiven it is a Pan UK budget. How do you propose that the allocation of specific budgets for devolved areas is made an English only matter?oxfordsimon said:
Do you know think that it is possible to devise some system to ensure that properly scrutiny of such matters happens?Socrates said:
But EV4EL will only do that for legislative measures. For all the non-legislative changes made by the Education Secretary and the Health Secretary, the English get screwed.oxfordsimon said:That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I believe it is.
And it is unthinkable, going forward, that an Education Secretary will not represent an English constituency.
How do you address areas like the Home office which will have devolved areas such as police and non-devolved areas such as Immigration. Are you going to break up one of the great offices of State or just ban non English MP's from a job that should be available for them.
How do you identify which Peers (who will be able to block all legislation from the Commons) are non-English and which are not? They do not necessarily previously have constituencies. After all it would be a bit pointless having EVfEL if Mick Martin, David Steele and Neil Kinnock were then able to block it in the Lords.
The idea that you can provide national integrity for English only matters within the UK Government/ Parliament is highly implausible. In fact to adapt a William Hague phrase its a bit like being 'In England but not run by England'
There is a big difference between 'English Votes for English Laws' and 'English Rule for English Laws' and the latter is where we should be heading.0 -
The reason EdM forgot to mention the deficit is that he has nothing to say about it.Roger said:Scott
"forgotten" speech issues - "
Ben said yesterday that party leaders doing a speech without notes should be cast into a bottomless pit. Very prescient of him as usual
The voters will have to judge whether that makes him fit to be PM.0 -
I asked him today, and didn't get a reply, but then I have less than 100 followers...AndyJS said:Request: please could someone with a relatively large Twitter following ask Lord Ashcroft whether he has any plans to commission a poll in Heywood and Middleton.
I tweeted him a few days ago but he didn't reply, which isn't surprising since I only have about 200 followers.0 -
@SunNewsdesk: Andy Burnham is accused of forgetting the deaths of nearly 1,200 people in a hospital scandal: http://bit.ly/1yr3Iq0 twitter.com/SunNewsdesk/status/514832943865274368/photo/10
-
An interesting thread.
I wasn’t aware of Alex Salmond’s winning certainty - Just goes to show, even with the most sophisticated methodology available, private polling can prove to be just an expensive dud.
0 -
I see parliament has been recalled to debate the Uk's part in air strikes on IS in Iraq. Poor buggers, getting their holiday cut short.0
-
Was it Pork or tim who used to obsess about the horse Cameron rode and how he would have to resign by the weekend?Neil said:
Poor hapless Pork. The indignity of seeing his sparing partner Seth vindicated when Lansley became leader followed by getting the Scottish referendum badly wrong because he understood less about what was going on than the out-of-touch-fop-twits.CarlottaVance said:
Yes he frequently said he didn't know who would win - but pointed out the disparity between the polling odds (close thing) and betting odds.Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
Prize turnips for "getting it wrong" must go to "GOTV Pork" and "hopeless" malcolmg......
We've had another "Cameron will resign any moment now" obsessive here recently.....0 -
Incidentally from what I can see Ed Milband's shadow cabinet (the first chosen by a labour leader) seems to be 'England friendly' unlike the current Government (Danny Alexander being the biggest problem) as it only uses non English MPs in UK roles (Foreign,International Aid, Wales, Ireland, Scotland)
Coincidence?0 -
Wasn't it this internal Nationalist polling that was behind Rupert Murdoch tweeting hints that the Scottish Sun might come out for Independence a couple of weeks before the Referendum after he had chatted on the phone with Alex Salmond? IIRC, @Seant commented that there was a rumour that Murdoch then got cold feet and pulled back from endorsing the Yes campaign after his flying visit to Scotland where he mingled and chatted to Scots voters and held a meeting with the editorial team of the Scottish Sun?0
-
Salmond has never been possessed of self doubt.....it was the people who won by 10 points who had that, in the face of the Nats adamantine certainty.....SimonStClare said:An interesting thread.
I wasn’t aware of Alex Salmond’s winning certainty - Just goes to show, even with the most sophisticated methodology available, private polling can prove to be just an expensive dud.
0 -
Thanks for this - and to others on the same theme. Very interesting to get an update on the situation.manofkent2014 said:
The budgets for specific devolved areas are currently developed as part of the overall annual Government budget by the Chancellor (formerly two Scots in succession) and the Chief Secretary of the Treasury (two Scots in succession). The budget is and has to be voted on by all members of the House giiven it is a Pan UK budget. How do you propose that the allocation of specific budgets for devolved areas is made an English only matter?oxfordsimon said:
Do you know think that it is possible to devise some system to ensure that properly scrutiny of such matters happens?Socrates said:
But EV4EL will only do that for legislative measures. For all the non-legislative changes made by the Education Secretary and the Health Secretary, the English get screwed.oxfordsimon said:That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I believe it is.
And it is unthinkable, going forward, that an Education Secretary will not represent an English constituency.
How do you address areas like the Home office which will have devolved areas such as police and non-devolved areas such as Immigration. Are you going to break up one of the great offices of State or just ban non English MP's from a job that should be available for them.
How do you identify which Peers (who will be able to block all legislation from the Commons) are non-English and which are not? They do not necessarily previously have constituencies. After all it would be a bit pointless having EVfEL if Mick Martin, David Steele and Neil Kinnock were then able to block it in the Lords.
The idea that you can provide national integrity for English only matters within the UK Government/ Parliament is highly implausible. In fact to adapt a William Hague phrase its a bit like being 'In England but not run by England'
There is a big difference between 'English Votes for English Laws' and 'English Rule for English Laws' and the latter is where we should be heading.
0 -
Having Billy Vague run it increases the chances of fudge, muddle and no action.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, there are two aspects to it. One is what should be done; once you've moved beyond sloganising, it isn't obvious: hence Hague's committee. The other is getting elected, and that is where perceptions of voters matter. Both these factors suggest it will be kicked into the long grass.Socrates said:
So the Conservatives aren't allowed to do the fair thing because the Scots have a chip on their shoulder? With respect, that's a ridiculous position.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whether it is or not, the question is whether it is perceived to be. One factor here would be its source. The SNP proposing ev4el is less likely to be seen as anti-Scots than an absolutely identical proposal from the Conservative Party because that party is already seen -- fairly or unfairly -- as being hostile to Scotland: the effing Tories, as the Prime Minister put it. And even if Scotland is written off, there are eight Welsh seats to defend.Socrates said:
How on Earth is it hostile to prevent the Scottish and Welsh ruling the English on stuff they get devolved?DecrepitJohnL said:
Any pb reader will have noted that ev4el posts have died away on recent threads, presumably as the party has realised it ain't that straightforward, which is presumably why Hague's committee has been established, and perhaps for fear of a causing a backlash -- maybe CCHQ's private polling (you see what I did there?) showed that in general English voters don't really care and Scottish and Welsh ones fear a hostile Conservative Party.Carnyx said:http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist
Might be worth a look as it is by Vernon Bogdanor on EV4EL and so on - was he not Mr Cameron's tutor at Oxford?
0 -
It was the cowardly bully Tim.CarlottaVance said:
Was it Pork or tim who used to obsess about the horse Cameron rode and how he would have to resign by the weekend?Neil said:
Poor hapless Pork. The indignity of seeing his sparing partner Seth vindicated when Lansley became leader followed by getting the Scottish referendum badly wrong because he understood less about what was going on than the out-of-touch-fop-twits.CarlottaVance said:
Yes he frequently said he didn't know who would win - but pointed out the disparity between the polling odds (close thing) and betting odds.Neil said:
I dont remember Stuart ever saying he thought 'yes' would win - he mostly said it would be close and 'yes' was value.Peter_the_Punter said:
I suspect Stuart Dickson has gone the way of Stuart Truth and now inhabits a parallel Universe where reality is exactly what you want it to be.Scott_P said:This makes Pete Wishart's tweet this morning even funnier.
They want to replace all Main Stream Media reporting with people on Facebook telling each other they are going to win...
Still no sign of Stuart Dickson? Was he a MI5 mole?
Prize turnips for "getting it wrong" must go to "GOTV Pork" and "hopeless" malcolmg......
We've had another "Cameron will resign any moment now" obsessive here recently.....0 -
Gordon brown is gone, it's no longer a Nokia to the back of the head from twenty paces when Labour MPs get out of line. - Ed, now commands respect from within the party by intellectual confidence alone...taffys said:I find the labour party criticism of ed Miliband puzzling.
Labour are normally pretty good at getting behind the leader.0 -
As long as we're getting Education and Health Secretaries on the back of a majority via Scots/Welsh votes, it doesn't matter what nationality they are.manofkent2014 said:Incidentally from what I can see Ed Milband's shadow cabinet (the first chosen by a labour leader) seems to be 'England friendly' unlike the current Government (Danny Alexander being the biggest problem) as it only uses non English MPs in UK roles (Foreign,International Aid, Wales, Ireland, Scotland)
Coincidence?0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.0 -
What about an MP from a Scots constituency becoming PM, when most of the issues they deal with are English-only?oxfordsimon said:
Do you know think that it is possible to devise some system to ensure that properly scrutiny of such matters happens?Socrates said:
But EV4EL will only do that for legislative measures. For all the non-legislative changes made by the Education Secretary and the Health Secretary, the English get screwed.oxfordsimon said:That reform has to mean that English MPs have the final say over measures that only affect English matters.
I believe it is.
And it is unthinkable, going forward, that an Education Secretary will not represent an English constituency.0 -
Yes, there's nothing more important than the start of the UKIP conference.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.0 -
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMenschMikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
.@chrisg0000 @HouseOfTwitsCon Cam should have waited for the #UKIP conference so they can send back all their MPs. #ohwait
0 -
You're not helping damp down the perception of Kippers as fruitcakes with comments like that!MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.0 -
Obama timed US military action specifically to steal Farage's thunder.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
"Hello, White House. Bomb Iraq to get up the Kippers noses? Yup, anything for you Dave"0 -
I certainly agree with you. I was wondering whether Miliband was attempting to provide cover for the inadequacy of whatever proposals he comes up with (because they are bound to be inadequate).Socrates said:
As long as we're getting Education and Health Secretaries on the back of a majority via Scots/Welsh votes, it doesn't matter what nationality they are.manofkent2014 said:Incidentally from what I can see Ed Milband's shadow cabinet (the first chosen by a labour leader) seems to be 'England friendly' unlike the current Government (Danny Alexander being the biggest problem) as it only uses non English MPs in UK roles (Foreign,International Aid, Wales, Ireland, Scotland)
Coincidence?0 -
Well if the Tories' answer to Sally Bercow has decided to comment on it then its got to be dodgy!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMenschMikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
.@chrisg0000 @HouseOfTwitsCon Cam should have waited for the #UKIP conference so they can send back all their MPs. #ohwait0 -
Douglas Carswel's little toe makes more of an MP than Louise "revolving door" Mensch ever did...TCPoliticalBetting said:
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMenschMikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
.@chrisg0000 @HouseOfTwitsCon Cam should have waited for the #UKIP conference so they can send back all their MPs. #ohwait0 -
Remind me is mensch an mp, or just a gobby member of the public?manofkent2014 said:
Well if the Tories' answer to Sally Bercow has decided to comment on it then its got to be dodgy!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Louise Mensch ✔ @LouiseMenschMikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.
.@chrisg0000 @HouseOfTwitsCon Cam should have waited for the #UKIP conference so they can send back all their MPs. #ohwait0 -
It does seem a little odd to have the parliamentary vote on whether to join the air strikes after the air strikes have begun...Richard_Nabavi said:
You're not helping damp down the perception of Kippers as fruitcakes with comments like that!MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29339787
Parliament recalled over air strikes on Islamic State in Iraq
Cammo trying to drown out the start of the UKIP Conference in Doncaster?
It won't help him or any of the Lab/Lib/Con team.0
