politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights
Comments
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It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.Sean_F said:
There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.Socrates said:
I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.Speedy said:This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 7m
Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
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EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.0
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Don't forget, tonights yougov Labour lead of 7 is before Ed's speech.
The full impact will be known by Thursday, if today's numbers are not a fluke I expect Labour to hit a peak of 40%.0 -
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?0 -
So the SNP are on a high after the massive NO vote...
@faisalislam: SNP MSP quits over NATO stance... Majority down to 1 at holyrood... http://t.co/KFDXKBk4A10 -
I hope UKIP do win in Heywood, it would create far more panic among the top parties if both of them are not only losing vote share but actual seats, but I'm inclined to agree with whoever down below mentioned the lack of desperation coming from Labour at the moment means they are predicting an easy win. They could be wrong, these things happen, but it just feels like at the moment UKIP are a real bother to Labour but not as much of a threat as UKIP are to the Tories.0
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Very true. Your typical Lib Dem voter in a northern working-class town is much different to a Lib Dem voter in Cambridge.another_richard said:
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.0 -
Aw diddums.TheWatcher said:
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
Stop moaning and pay up.
We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.0 -
Sensible of him not to want to distract from the referendum campaign in even a small way, but why did it take him so many years to resign when others resigned immediately over the issue? His other comments are pretty vague.Scott_P said:So the SNP are on a high after the massive NO vote...
@faisalislam: SNP MSP quits over NATO stance... Majority down to 1 at holyrood... http://t.co/KFDXKBk4A1
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Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.Sean_F said:
There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.Socrates said:
I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.Speedy said:This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 7m
Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.0 -
I see Nicolas Sarkozy believes gay marriage involves "humiliating families and humiliating people who love the family.”"
I wonder whether his first, second and third wives agree?0 -
People who don't care will think the Conservatives are wasting time on something irrelevant.Danny565 said:EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.
People who do care will be annoyed by Cameron's behaviour and think that only UKIP will 'stand up for England'.
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Hugh said:
Aw diddums.TheWatcher said:
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
Stop moaning and pay up.
We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
All your money belong to us. Eh?
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ExtraSpeedy said:TSE's Tory EV4EL surge continues:
Britain Elects @britainelects 31s
National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
LAB - 38% (+3)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 15% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (=)
GRN - 5% (=)
Votes
4
Ed's
Labour
0 -
Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?
Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring
Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony0 -
Of course notMarkHopkins said:Hugh said:
Aw diddums.TheWatcher said:
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
Stop moaning and pay up.
We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
All your money belong to us. Eh?
But we're all in this together0 -
kle4 said:
I hope UKIP do win in Heywood, it would create far more panic among the top parties if both of them are not only losing vote share but actual seats, but I'm inclined to agree with whoever down below mentioned the lack of desperation coming from Labour at the moment means they are predicting an easy win. They could be wrong, these things happen, but it just feels like at the moment UKIP are a real bother to Labour but not as much of a threat as UKIP are to the Tories.
From a journo in the Manchester Evening News - Also a comment about Simon Danczuk further down the thread https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/5144695517788446740 -
Heh heh, those lower down the food chain will get clobbered.Hugh said:
Aw diddums.TheWatcher said:
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
Stop moaning and pay up.
We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
Now, what do you think about Miliband's plan for regional devolution and the resulting fragmentation of the NHS?0 -
Spoken like a true Thatcherite.isam said:Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?
Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring
Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony
Voice of the working classes.0 -
If it's running true to pattern it will have:Danny565 said:Balls Bounce?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%
a) Labour at about 47 in London
b) Very low LD - Tory switchers (9 seems to recur)
c) It will show Labour in the lead with ABs
It's about a 1 in 5/1 in 6 poll pattern with YG and Populus.
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How much of the tax burden are the disabled and unemployed bearing?Hugh said:
Aw diddums.TheWatcher said:
Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.Hugh said:
A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.TheWatcher said:
So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?Speedy said:
How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?TheWatcher said:Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.
We all know where this idea is heading.
Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
Stop moaning and pay up.
We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.0 -
Stupendous sir!___Bobajob___ said:
ExtraSpeedy said:TSE's Tory EV4EL surge continues:
Britain Elects @britainelects 31s
National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
LAB - 38% (+3)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 15% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (=)
GRN - 5% (=)
Votes
4
Ed's
Labour0 -
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.Sean_F said:
There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.Socrates said:
I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.Speedy said:This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 7m
Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
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PB Kippers sticking up for the richest against the working class and poor again I see, like the Establishment cronies they are.
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My wife became a US citizen yesterday. Our daughter and I went along to the ceremony. 255 folks from 46 countries took the oath.
The keynote speaker was the 'one vote mayor' of Morrow, where the ceremony was held. This guy -
http://www.cbs46.com/story/16009147/morrow-mayor-elect-jb-burke-wins-by-one-vote
After his speech, big applause.
After taking the oath of alegiance -big applause
After the video of Lee Greenwood's God Bless the USA (yes, we all waved flags), big applause and many tears.
After a video welcome by President Obama - total silence.
The League of Women Voters had a stall set up at the event, so she's registered to vote.
Thursday she has an appointment at the Post Office to get a US passport. After that we'll have 6 passports between the three of us -3 UK, 3 US
When she went back to work today, the staff had decorated her office in red white and blue, and they had a party for her.0 -
It's all about priorities.Danny565 said:EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.
To most people, money is a priority and to Tory english voters giving more money and rights to scotland while reducing theirs is unfair.
Just like with the other english Tory priority, europe, you have to put it in context of money and the right to your own money for people to care (UKIP does that very good).
English devolution will become in time the battlefield of another Tory civil war, like europe has.
It's not about the general publc, it's about placating Tory voters.0 -
Force the rich to divide up their homes into multiple occupancy residences tooHugh said:
Spoken like a true Thatcherite.isam said:Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?
Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring
Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony
Voice of the working classes.
Tax colour tv
Ban books
Etc0 -
N Robinson Miliband did not mention the deficit once nor immigration 'he forgot'0
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Lets wait for the constituency poll.another_richard said:
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.Sean_F said:
There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.Socrates said:
I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.Speedy said:This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 7m
Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
But if the Labour front bench doesn't give a toss aside from leaks then why should we expect UKIP to get close to them?0 -
BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments0
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Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
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I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)another_richard said:
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.Sean_F said:
There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.Socrates said:
I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.Speedy said:This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?
Channel 4 News @Channel4News 7m
Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.0 -
@Ishmael
Good for you. You are right. Lucky's was an effing miserable post by someone who has no experience of marriage never mind working at a marriage.0 -
Err...as I was saying at 10/1.isam said:Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified0 -
Alex who? The fat bloke who resigned after losing something last week? Is he still around?HYUFD said:BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
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New Thread0
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I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.HYUFD said:BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.
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typical response from a loony, fruitcake and closet rascist...Itajai said:200,000 new houses?
How many million third world immigrants will Labour import to shore up their vote bank (and ISIS strength). Will these houses be pre-allocated to them? Probably.0 -
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5939153/labour-fear-ukip-by-election-win.html
Don't read it but I assume it is backing what I said a few nights ago.0 -
The Watcher/kle4 Still making sure he keeps his presence known while he can0
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Where's TSE this evening - hope that he's following these penalties...0
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I thought you were in favour of the bedroom tax that's all the mansion tax is but targeted properlyisam said:
Force the rich to divide up their homes into multiple occupancy residences tooHugh said:
Spoken like a true Thatcherite.isam said:Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?
Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring
Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony
Voice of the working classes.
Tax colour tv
Ban books
Etc0 -
I'm delighted for you -sincerely. I was not being miserable -just using words to illustrate my point.Ishmael_X said:
I still get afternoon sex, and I'm old enough (judging by your screen name) to be your father.
I also still rinse the sink after shaving. Don't be so miserable.0 -
Its in the COUNTY of GREATER Manchester not the CITY of Manchester.compouter2 said:
I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)another_richard said:
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
Heywood and Middleton are two middling ex mill towns in the Pennine foothills.
Their postal addresses will be Heywood, Lancashire and Middleton, Lancashire.
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On way home from Manchester pb meet. TSE gave us the YG revverse bounce news that cheered me and Nick0
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I know right? Why is he feeling the need to make a statement every time someone breathes a word about Scotland? JOG ON.TheWatcher said:
Alex who? The fat bloke who resigned after losing something last week? Is he still around?HYUFD said:BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
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Personally think UKIP will give Labour a scare but fall short in Heywood.
If you look at 2010:
Lab 40, Con 27, LD 23, BNP 7, UKIP 3,
At Wythenshawe the changes were Lab +11, UKIP +15, Con -11, LD -17, BNP -1
If something similar happened in Heywood that would take us to
Lab 51, UKIP 18, Con 16, LD 6, BNP 6
Now Con aren't as strong in Heywood so lets move 5% from them to UKIP. BNP are in decline so lets move 3% from them to UKIP. That takes us to:
Lab 51, UKIP 26, Con 11, LD 6, BNP 3
Now lets take 10% from Lab and give to UKIP due to grooming and lets take 3% from Lab and give to Green who will presumably stand. Even then we end up with:
Lab 38, UKIP 36, Con 11, LD 6, BNP 3, Green 3
Personally think Lab will hold with a 5% majority (about 1200)0 -
The problem with making fags more expensive is that consumers will look for a cheaper alternative. They will either travel abroad and bring some back or go direct to the black market and buy from "white van man".MyBurningEars said:Am I right in thinking Labour's proposed tax on tobacco companies would tax company profits (which includes profits from exports and from sales of other items like e-cigs, which some tobacco companies are moving into) based on UK market share? Would it apply to all companies selling tobacco in the UK (even if the UK formed but a tiny fraction of their global sales) or only to UK-domiciled companies (which would put British firms at a disadvantage to foreign competitors and encourage moving HQs offshore)?
A lot of this seems completely barmy either way but I am not sure to what extent the reporting is full or accurate. I certainly can't make much sense of what I've read about it.
In either case the tax take to the exchequer goes down.
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Heywood & Middleton are wwc towns 'up north' so not of much interest to EdM and his chums.Speedy said:
Lets wait for the constituency poll.another_richard said:
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
But if the Labour front bench doesn't give a toss aside from leaks then why should we expect UKIP to get close to them?
They don't even have football teams that they can pretend to be lifelong supporters of.
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Sometimes you look at some of the YouGov numbers and think the electorate are really stupid.
But then you remember the laws of stats and sample sizes and error factors and standard deviation.
All polls are pretty meaningless until 2015
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A quick post about ISIS.
-Telegraph recently: 49 Turkish hostages released by ISIS totally unscathed http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11110558/Islamic-State-releases-49-Turkish-hostages-seized-in-northern-Iraq.html
'reasons behind release unclear'
-Going a bit further back, 46 Indian nurses, freed by ISIS without so much as a scratch http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/indian-nurses-reach-mosul-kerala-cm-says-they-are-safe/article1-1236585.aspx
'External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in constant touch with her counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to leverage their influence over the Sunni insurgents to seek the release of Indians being held captive, sources said.'
So Turkey, incidentally the main conduit for these savages to get into Syria (still wide open, not a word uttered by us or the US), gets its people back nice and safe, avoiding tough questions at home on their unpopular policy on this issue. India gets in touch with KSA, Qatar and the UAE -to use THEIR INFLUENCE in ISIS, and the nurses get away untouched. Notice these same countries are the ones joining the US on this new bombing campaign AGAINST ISIS. No prizes for guessing how many actual ISIS targets they'll hit.
But no quiet diplomacy for our hostages -we need to be mentally bludgeoned into sanctioning another vastly expensive bombing campaign, therefore we get treated to these ridiculous orange pyjama videos complete with thuddingly obvious reverse psychology. 'Don't bomb ISIS (we mean do)'. etc. etc.
This is about SYRIA. The beheaders are OUR people (at least, the yanks and the Wahhabi Arab's). Has anyone got a satisfactory reason as to why the US is so obsessed with removing one Arab dictator when it gets on so well with so many who are far worse? This seems as good as any to me: http://nsnbc.me/2014/09/11/us-yet-trying-create-oil-gas-collapse-russia/
*cue 'conspiraloon' comments*0 -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middleton,_Greater_Manchester I refer you to the postal town situated in the box on the bottom rightanother_richard said:
Its in the COUNTY of GREATER Manchester not the CITY of Manchester.compouter2 said:
I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)another_richard said:
But it varies from place to place.Speedy said:
Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Speedy said:
Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.another_richard said:
Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.Speedy said:
In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.another_richard said:
Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.
At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.
The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.
In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.
Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.
The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.
In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
Heywood and Middleton are two middling ex mill towns in the Pennine foothills.
Their postal addresses will be Heywood, Lancashire and Middleton, Lancashire.0
