Immigration benefits our country but those who come here have a responsibility to learn English and earn their way. And employers have a responsibility not to exploit migrant workers and undercut wages.
And the deficit:
So as Ed Balls announced yesterday, Labour’s plan is based on a tough new approach. Eliminating the deficit as soon as possible in the next parliament. Getting the national debt falling. And no proposals for additional borrowing.
Strong rumours that the French defence attache in Baghdad has been killed in a bomb attack. Still awaiting confirmation. Curiously enough just a day or so after France officially announced its air force involvement in strikes and the very imminent nature of the 1st actual strikes in Syria.'
Very Imminent turned out to be 2 hours. More later on what success or otherwise those strikes have had.
The world, on the whole, is not blown away. I'm beginning to wonder if, in June 2015, we will look back on the Ed Milliband premiership that wasn't, and say to ourselves "Nah, that was never gonna happen" We may well persuade ourselves that we thought that all along.
Well Miliband spin team going to have to work all their connections this evening to spin why 2 of the most important issues in British politics just slipped the great leaders mind.
But then I guess Miliband has form, all that bleating about standing up to Murdoch, while if he just did a quick google search he would remember that he really "hearts" The Sun....
I think we have just seen the second omnishambles of this parliament.
It's odd. Usually crap conf speeches are crap in real time, while crap budgets unravel over 24 hours. ed has managed both at once.
Immigration benefits our country but those who come here have a responsibility to learn English and earn their way. And employers have a responsibility not to exploit migrant workers and undercut wages.
And the deficit:
So as Ed Balls announced yesterday, Labour’s plan is based on a tough new approach. Eliminating the deficit as soon as possible in the next parliament. Getting the national debt falling. And no proposals for additional borrowing.
I know Ed's speech was supposed to be a "broad-brush" - but that's just ridiculously thin.
Don't worry the magic money tree will take care of all the minor issues like the massive deficit and debt, then we can squeeze the rich for a load of extra cash to splurge on an unreformed NHS that will suck it up like a black hole.
You would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh when Nick Robinson said (not verbatim) "Some in the audience found it hard to keep awake during the speech"
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
So Labour's mass immigration strains the housing stock and NHS to breaking point. Solution to tax housing, primarily owned by the indigenous for whom the rise in price of said houses has been one of the very few compensations for mass immigration, in order to prop up healthcare system. Stupid and evil.
No one appears to have spotted the big tax rise mentioned in Ed's speech.
He said that the self employed would get equal rights to the employed.
Currently the self employed pay lower NIC because they have less rights (9% rather than 12% up to the upper earnings limit, so approximately £1k difference). In addition there is no equivalence to Employers NIC (13.8%).
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
It's a core moron strategy because you know Nigh Bevin and the Olympics opening ceremony and hedge funds and FATCHA, and let's ignore the fact that if your child is seriously ill in an NHS hospital your best bet is to run away to Prague with it.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
'Policies look interesting. £2 million is a big house even in London unless it is in a prime area like W8 or W11.'
You would be hard pressed to find a big house for £2 million anywhere in inner London and with London house price inflation how long before houses well below that value get sucked into this tax.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
It's a core moron strategy because you know Nigh Bevin and the Olympics opening ceremony and hedge funds and FATCHA, and let's ignore the fact that if your child is seriously ill in an NHS hospital your best bet is to run away to Prague with it.
Perhaps someone could ask Nick Palmer what's happened to the 10p tax rate, whether it's been abandoned and whether he thinks that as between the lowest earners and high-earning doctors, the right priority for a Labour government is the latter.
No one appears to have spotted the big tax rise mentioned in Ed's speech.
He said that the self employed would get equal rights to the employed.
Currently the self employed pay lower NIC because they have less rights (9% rather than 12% up to the upper earnings limit, so approximately £1k difference). In addition there is no equivalence to Employers NIC (13.8%).
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
But as a self-employed person you would surely be happy to pay the extra so that you have full rights to demand all the rights of an employed person from, well, yourself. Just think you will be able to demand sick-pay, at least four weeks leave a year, a pension scheme, maternity/paternity leave, protection against unfair dismissal and much much more. All that in return for paying more tax to the government. It has to be the bargain of the century.
To the average voter, EV4EL sounds like a political party whigeing about how unfair life is, and wouldn't it be better (for them) if the voting system was changed.
How does unaccountable Scots will decide on taxing English homes' sound??
Is the mansion tax really just on English homes? That would be so monumentally stupid as a policy I can't believe they'd do it.
It's on all homes. However, I'd estimate (and this is just top of the head, but I very much doubt I'm wrong), that 99.9% of homes above 2m in value are in England.
How can it be on all homes when by the time it comes into force it will be a devolved matter?
£2 million homes? How about islands or 'estates'?- do they count? Mull of Kintire is for sale for £3 million? Brian Souter bought belwood house for £1. If he's 'done it up' it might be worth £2 million now. But who values it.
Anyone with a mansion and some land will split them... at least legally... A house in the countryside on its own is very rarely worth 2m. With some farmland it's a very different story.
Anyone who begrudges the NHS money from this tax really is beyond saving and sort of makes Labour's point stronger. Anyone really think the electorate will not be in favour of a mansion tax really should get out more.
The electorate is always in favour of someone else paying more tax so they can have better services.
So I'm not sure what your point is...
Oh yes, EVIL TORY MONSTERS LOOK! EVIL TORY MONSTERS WANT TO PRIVATISE THE NHS BY SELLING IT TO THEIR HEDGE FUND MATES!!! LOOK EVIL TORY MONSTERS!!!
I think I've got it now.
Thank you.
This will be popular, in principle. But, some people will think they'll be hit next, whenever some government department runs short.
No one appears to have spotted the big tax rise mentioned in Ed's speech.
He said that the self employed would get equal rights to the employed.
Currently the self employed pay lower NIC because they have less rights (9% rather than 12% up to the upper earnings limit, so approximately £1k difference). In addition there is no equivalence to Employers NIC (13.8%).
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
But as a self-employed person you would surely be happy to pay the extra so that you have full rights to demand all the rights of an employed person from, well, yourself. Just think you will be able to demand sick-pay, at least four weeks leave a year, a pension scheme, maternity/paternity leave, protection against unfair dismissal and much much more. All that in return for paying more tax to the government. It has to be the bargain of the century.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Just catching up with Ed M's speech. With all the 'Together' being used. Can we call it the Village People method? Apologies if someone up thread has already made this gag but I have only been awake for an hour as working nights.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
It's a core moron strategy because you know Nigh Bevin and the Olympics opening ceremony and hedge funds and FATCHA, and let's ignore the fact that if your child is seriously ill in an NHS hospital your best bet is to run away to Prague with it.
Perhaps someone could ask Nick Palmer what's happened to the 10p tax rate, whether it's been abandoned and whether he thinks that as between the lowest earners and high-earning doctors, the right priority for a Labour government is the latter.
Andy Burnham just on C4 doing slightly better than on R4 earlier, but to be fair he deserves ten out of ten for exposing himself to the media when his boss appears to have forgotten about immigration and public finances. I'd love to be a fly on the wall as Mr Burnham has a well earned drink maybe later and quietly says to a friend what I suspect he really thinks.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
No one appears to have spotted the big tax rise mentioned in Ed's speech.
He said that the self employed would get equal rights to the employed.
Currently the self employed pay lower NIC because they have less rights (9% rather than 12% up to the upper earnings limit, so approximately £1k difference). In addition there is no equivalence to Employers NIC (13.8%).
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
But as a self-employed person you would surely be happy to pay the extra so that you have full rights to demand all the rights of an employed person from, well, yourself. Just think you will be able to demand sick-pay, at least four weeks leave a year, a pension scheme, maternity/paternity leave, protection against unfair dismissal and much much more. All that in return for paying more tax to the government. It has to be the bargain of the century.
Err who exactly do you claim that from??
Yourself obviously, Mr Bladder. But as you will have those new rights is it not only correct that your NI liabilities come into line with a person on PAYE employment. Its only fair - equal rights = equal contributions.
Actually, is there is not an argument for all employers to pay the 13% NI charge? Just because someone is employing themselves is no reason why they should be let off paying their fair share. As an employer they should pay the employers tariff and as an employee they should pay NIC as every other person does.
I really think Miliband is on to something with treating self-employed as is they were employed.
Evening all, I gather via Twitter that Milibland managed to completely forget the section in his speech on the economy and deficit. Had forgotten to water the magic money tree? How often did he spend the mansion tax?
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
At least NIC is not a tax, so it is not a tax increase....
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
What is the MTA? I am married and get no tax break. Quite the opposite in fact - I am smashed for tax because I am a higher rate payer even though my wife is on the basic rate. Somebody explain!
'Policies look interesting. £2 million is a big house even in London unless it is in a prime area like W8 or W11.'
You would be hard pressed to find a big house for £2 million anywhere in inner London and with London house price inflation how long before houses well below that value get sucked into this tax.
The paradox is that if such a tax is brought in it could have the effect of cooling the London property market, which might well be a good thing. But if prices stop rising or even fall then such a tax will not raise as much as hoped and houses worth much less than this threshold will need to be taxed. This could have a further cooling effect. Repeat the cycle.
The more people are caught the more opposition you are likely to face and the more you risk facing the "asset rich/cash poor" problem / throwing grannies who've lived their all their lives out / penalising families issues.
More council tax bands at the top end would be better.
I do find it depressing that Labour's sole rationale appears to be the NHS. Not because a well organised health service is not a good thing. It is. How it's organised is neither here nor there provided that people's health is well looked after. But that their credo is devotion (love, even) to one particular form of organisation which was current in 1948. For a progressive party it's a very backward looking and rather rose-tinted view
Labour are like the Downton Abbey devotees of politics: confusing warm-hearted stories with real life.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
It's a core moron strategy because you know Nigh Bevin and the Olympics opening ceremony and hedge funds and FATCHA, and let's ignore the fact that if your child is seriously ill in an NHS hospital your best bet is to run away to Prague with it.
Perhaps someone could ask Nick Palmer what's happened to the 10p tax rate, whether it's been abandoned and whether he thinks that as between the lowest earners and high-earning doctors, the right priority for a Labour government is the latter.
We all know that you won't get any money off rich Russians (this is surely who the 'mansion' tax is aimed at?). They will either leave for the Cote D'Azur or simply find a way around it.
But I wonder if there is some way of voluntarily getting them to part with their cash. Could we sell them titles? Proper ones, not those silly highland titles that Americans buy. Baronetcy for a hospital.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 2h Senior Lab figure told me private polling towards end of campaign put Yes on 53 - that number that panicked them, rather than Yougov poll
If this is true,the Quebec surge could have resulted in an 8 point turnaround.Nothing else explains it,apart from Gordon Brown who can claim it for himself.Gordon saved the union,not a late Quebec surge.
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
At least NIC is not a tax, so it is not a tax increase....
(rolls eyes)
I cannot wait for someone like Brillo to demand an explanation as to what 'equal rights for the self employed' actually means from some dribbling, stuttering Labour bod.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Thank you.
I saw that earlier but the money involved is a lot less so nowhere near as big a relief as when funded by the mansion tax (allegedly)
The info I saw said it meant the 10% band would be buttons if only paid for by the MTA being abolished. eg
Personal allowance is £10,000
10% would be just the next £200 on top - so on income between £10,000 and £10,200 you only pay 10% at that margin.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
On the same principle you should have children for love not to get a benefit. But the howling and wailing from Labour people when this government limited the rights of rich people to receive such a benefit was quite something!
The reason why pretty much every country in Western Europe provides some sort of benefit to marriage is because of the evidence that is, by far and away, the best way of bringing up children and reducing the social and other costs of not having stable families. Given that those costs are borne by the state and others, it's not unreasonable for them to take such a view.
You could have marriage and child-rearing wholly unrecognised by the tax system, along with all sorts of other things and that is a valid view. But Labour want to go down the route of "sin" taxes on activities/goods considered harmful so why not also reward those activities that are considered good/helpful? There is an inconsistency in their approach: very strong on being judgmental about bad things but then shying away when asked why they are not willing to support, in some small way, good things.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
You old romantic, Reggie.
I don't see why it should incentivise anything.
But you try taking the incentives away, and boy you'll hear some screams.
On the same principle you should have children for love not to get a benefit. But the howling and wailing from Labour people when this government limited the rights of rich people to receive such a benefit was quite something!
Jonathan Isaby@isaby·14 mins At our @the_tpa@iealondon fringe @SimonDanczuk says Labour should've backed cutting 50p tax rate to 40p when Coalition Govt cut it to 45p
No doubt the Lab conference has been a bit flat this year - also not one of Ed's greatest speeches although hardly as bad as the usual suspects paint it on here (they did the same last year and the year before when it was widely hailed as brilliant)
Policies look interesting. £2 million is a big house even in London unless it is in a prime area like W8 or W11. Carbon stuff is catnip to the Red Liberals. Probably not worth bothering with the Evel stuff in a speech as it's meaningless and boring to 99% of the electorate.
So okay, not great, would be my verdict.
Agree. It was bread a butter, providing the policies, arguments and platform for the campaign.
Exactly what it needed to be.
He's done barnstorming before, that wasn't necessary today.
The fact that Rentoul and Hodges hated it is great news.
No doubt the Lab conference has been a bit flat this year - also not one of Ed's greatest speeches although hardly as bad as the usual suspects paint it on here (they did the same last year and the year before when it was widely hailed as brilliant)
Policies look interesting. £2 million is a big house even in London unless it is in a prime area like W8 or W11. Carbon stuff is catnip to the Red Liberals. Probably not worth bothering with the Evel stuff in a speech as it's meaningless and boring to 99% of the electorate.
So okay, not great, would be my verdict.
Agree. It was bread a butter, providing the policies, arguments and platform for the campaign.
Exactly what it needed to be.
He's done barnstorming before, that wasn't necessary today.
The fact that Rentoul and Hodges hated it is great news.
And if they'd loved it, that would've been great news as well!
I didn't see all the speech, but I did catch Miliband criticising Cameron over Europe. He said, paraphrasing, that Europe's leaders don't care about the Conservative's problems over Europe, so they won't do anything helpful to Cameron.
If this were true, Europe's leaders would be short-sighted fools. The Conservative party has problem over Europe because significant chunk of the UK electorate do. It isn't top of their priority list, but they are pretty unhappy with the whole EU project. As long as this continues, the EU will have a British problem - decade after decade of the UK obstructing EU plans and flirting with the exit - hardly in Europe's best interests.
I cannot wait for someone like Brillo to demand an explanation as to what 'equal rights for the self employed' actually means from some dribbling, stuttering Labour bod.
The starting point is to figure what "self-employed" means. That is not a clear as politicians seem to think. Many "self employed" are actually employees of small, closely held Limited Companies.
I've seen Miliband's speech. It lacked policy detail, it was very emotional and humorous, in total a very light speech, easy for the public to digest. When just listening it sounded like a Blair speech pre-1997, you could only distinguish it by Miliband's lisp.
In short, I give it 4 out of 5 stars. (the lack of policy details, the lisp, and votes for kids were the minus)
Thanks for this -I haven't watched the speech; I find him too cringey to watch. Interesting to read it. Is it true there are less apprenticeships these days? I remember Lord Baker having some great ideas about this before the last election. I may be misremembering.
Well Miliband spin team going to have to work all their connections this evening to spin why 2 of the most important issues in British politics just slipped the great leaders mind.
But then I guess Miliband has form, all that bleating about standing up to Murdoch, while if he just did a quick google search he would remember that he really "hearts" The Sun....
It's his intellectual self confidence. No need to confuse the little people with tricky matters. Far better to dwell on the magic money tree, the unicorns and the pegasus for all.
On the same principle you should have children for love not to get a benefit. But the howling and wailing from Labour people when this government limited the rights of rich people to receive such a benefit was quite something!
Are you having a dig at poor old Bobajob there???
I didn't mean to. I was affected by the removal of child benefit too. But I didn't make an issue of it because, frankly, when money is tight it should be targeted on the poorest.
But I was amused at the sense of entitlement from those who were well off by any standards at this change. It was the sort of sense of entitlement that reminded me of nothing so much as the attitude of some of our more greedy bankers.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
A relatively new concept. Marrying to form a financially viable unit is not out of line with the reasons for entering the institution for centuries.
Has anyone else seen a worse opening price that Hills 1/50 (FIFTY TO ONE ON) labour in Heywood and Middleton
How many people have put a bet on that byelection? I don't buy the whole "Labour is in trouble" in Heywood, logic dictates that they should get at least the same votes as last time, even if the local Labour party is in civil war mood.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
A relatively new concept. Marrying to form a financially viable unit is not out of line with the reasons for entering the institution for centuries.
Well sure, but why do we need to make it easier for people to form those viable units with a tax break. If that amount will make or break it for you, find someone else so the pair of you won't need the break, or marry for love if you want that instead. Should we give people from rich backgrounds who make themselves less viable, in unit terms, by marrying a pauper, a lump sum payment to make up for this loving, but financially more risky choice?
Has anyone else seen a worse opening price that Hills 1/50 (FIFTY TO ONE ON) labour in Heywood and Middleton
How many people have put a bet on that byelection? I don't buy the whole "Labour is in trouble" in Heywood, logic dictates that they should get at least the same votes as last time, even if the local Labour party is in civil war mood.
How would I know??
But the odds have moved from 1/50 to 2/9
Still 81% implied chance of a Labour win, but the opening price was a shocker
Ed's speech today lacks anything as tangible and specific as last year's freeze on energy prices.
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
No doubt the Lab conference has been a bit flat this year - also not one of Ed's greatest speeches although hardly as bad as the usual suspects paint it on here (they did the same last year and the year before when it was widely hailed as brilliant)
Policies look interesting. £2 million is a big house even in London unless it is in a prime area like W8 or W11. Carbon stuff is catnip to the Red Liberals. Probably not worth bothering with the Evel stuff in a speech as it's meaningless and boring to 99% of the electorate.
So okay, not great, would be my verdict.
The fact that Rentoul and Hodges hated it is great news.
I would dispute that. It's not good or bad news that they hated it, it isn't even news as if it great or bad for Ed the result would have been the same (certainly from Hodges, I don't know about Rentoul)
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
A relatively new concept. Marrying to form a financially viable unit is not out of line with the reasons for entering the institution for centuries.
Well sure, but why do we need to make it easier for people to form those viable units with a tax break. If that amount will make or break it for you, find someone else so the pair of you won't need the break, or marry for love if you want that instead. Should we give people from rich backgrounds who make themselves less viable, in unit terms, by marrying a pauper, a lump sum payment to make up for this loving, but financially more risky choice?
Because they will create stable nuclear families that will be the bedrock of society. An inconvenient, unfashionable truth, but true nonetheless.
If you think you can get the 35% you need to form a governent without needing to get many MPs from the South East - which does seem to be Labour strategy - then why not propose such a tax.
Particularly since, if the strategy does not work, it makes it easier to enter into a coalition with the Lib Dems, whose policy it originally was.
It's clever politics. It's why I think the Tories are wrong to underestimate EdM or to see him as their secret weapon.
It's not winning the election which is the issue. I think Labour could well win in May 2015. It's how such policies work when they have to govern.
Has anyone else seen a worse opening price that Hills 1/50 (FIFTY TO ONE ON) labour in Heywood and Middleton
How many people have put a bet on that byelection? I don't buy the whole "Labour is in trouble" in Heywood, logic dictates that they should get at least the same votes as last time, even if the local Labour party is in civil war mood.
How would I know??
But the odds have moved from 1/50 to 2/9
Still 81% implied chance of a Labour win, but the opening price was a shocker
Absolutely. Labour only won with 40% or so last time, and whilst UKIP haven't been historically strong in Manchester demographically the seat isn't bad for them at all. Labour should be strong favourites, but until a poll or two says so they are far from nailed on. 1/50 is foregone conclusion territory, and it was never that. Not sure what I'd have laid as a bookie, but probably 1/4 or 1/5 (UKIP on 5/1 or 6/1 respectively).
Ed's speech today lacks anything as tangible and specific as last year's freeze on energy prices.
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
Labour promising to throw more borrowed money at the NHS as usual .... nothing changes.
This bit: 'I met a patient, Colin, in his 80s, who sadly passed away a few weeks later. We had an amazing conversation -- he remembered the foundation of the NHS, and life before and he said: “where would we be without it?”' -Depends what he passed away from really. If it was pneumonia, bedsores and clostridium dificile, then the answer to his question would probably be 'alive'.
My only objection to the Mansion Tax is that it's a quick answer to a more complex problem which needs resolution and that's the financing of loca, Government and amidst all the talk of devolution since last Friday I've heard nobody address this.
The current system of financing local Government is unfair - there is no "fair" system because the country isn't one homogenous entity but made up of very different places. The central problem remains he who pays the piper calls the tune and as much of local Government is still financed from central Government it's inevitable Whitehall/Westminster wants a say.
With the evolution of Academies and Free Schools and a small loosening of central control on what Councils can and cannot do, some far-sighted authorities are looking at strategic partnerships and alternative income streams as a way of reducing dependency on the central Govenrment handout but with the demand for school places and the cost and demand for the care of vulnerable adults and children rising well above inflation, Councils remain under strong financial pressure to be efficient and effective and I would contend many of all stripes are extremely lean.
Labour should be arguing for more tax raising powers for local Councils based on local referenda or more frequent elections. I doubt the Mansion Tax will damage Labour too severely in places like East Ham even though it's possible some riverside properties in Royal Docks will fall into the Mansion Tax bracket.
At the very least, all sides need to look long and hard at the Council Tax bands and instigatre a comprehensive review and revaluation recognising the huge differential in house prices across the country (as well as the huge differential in other costs).
Ed's speech today lacks anything as tangible and specific as last year's freeze on energy prices.
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
Mr. L. The NHS budget is North of £100bn per annum. The additional taxes Miliband was talking about might raise about £2.5bn per annum. An additional 2.5%. How will that change the care you get? It won't.
I'm not against a mansion tax to help fund the NHS but:-
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from? 2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
The Marriage Tax Allowance will be scrapped to pay for the 10p rate.
Surprise surprise, Miliband doesn't think much of marriage.
I have never grasped why the tax system should incentivise marriage.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
A relatively new concept. Marrying to form a financially viable unit is not out of line with the reasons for entering the institution for centuries.
Well sure, but why do we need to make it easier for people to form those viable units with a tax break. If that amount will make or break it for you, find someone else so the pair of you won't need the break, or marry for love if you want that instead. Should we give people from rich backgrounds who make themselves less viable, in unit terms, by marrying a pauper, a lump sum payment to make up for this loving, but financially more risky choice?
Because they will create stable nuclear families that will be the bedrock of society. An inconvenient, unfashionable truth, but true nonetheless.
No, that's fine, but people don't need help to do it. They were able to find marriage financially viable before a tax break, if people care most about making a viable unit they can choose a partner on that basis, not complain their chosen marriage unit is not financially viable enough and make everyone else pay for it.
Ed's speech today lacks anything as tangible and specific as last year's freeze on energy prices.
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
Mr. L. The NHS budget is North of £100bn per annum. The additional taxes Miliband was talking about might raise about £2.5bn per annum. An additional 2.5%. How will that change the care you get? It won't.
I'm aware of the numbers, thanks.
I'm interested in what the public will think - and 99.9% of the public won't have a clue what the numbers are.
If you think you can get the 35% you need to form a governent without needing to get many MPs from the South East - which does seem to be Labour strategy - then why not propose such a tax.
Particularly since, if the strategy does not work, it makes it easier to enter into a coalition with the Lib Dems, whose policy it originally was.
It's clever politics. It's why I think the Tories are wrong to underestimate EdM or to see him as their secret weapon.
It's not winning the election which is the issue. I think Labour could well win in May 2015. It's how such policies work when they have to govern.
What odds it is nicknamrd the "South East England Tax" Still, it won't cost Labour many seats.
Hell, unlike a nickname like the 'Bedroom tax', that nickname would make it more popular a tax for many after all. Ed may not be pursuing a 35% strategy, but his strategy probably doesn't include the SE outside London regardless as others have stated
I've seen Miliband's speech. It lacked policy detail, it was very emotional and humorous, in total a very light speech, easy for the public to digest. When just listening it sounded like a Blair speech pre-1997, you could only distinguish it by Miliband's lisp.
In short, I give it 4 out of 5 stars. (the lack of policy details, the lisp, and votes for kids were the minus)
I thought Miliband had been cured of his lisp ..... or perhaps that was his nasal drone.
After escaping the Aberdonian grey to the faded elegance of the South of France I listened to Ed's speech which I found rather dull and the passion phoney......but I think it'll probably go down well.
I've given up on the idea that people share my prejudices (I wish some Tories on here would have a similar epiphany) and though much of it sounds childish and silly I think it'll strike a chord.
When I arrived someone gave me an Aker Bilk CD and asked me to listen to it before throwing it into the poubelle. Now I'm hooked which Just shows that even crap can make an impact if the time and place is right....
What odds it is nicknamrd the "South East England Tax" Still, it won't cost Labour many seats.
Hell, unlike a nickname like the 'Bedroom tax', that nickname would make it more popular a tax for many after all. Ed may not be pursuing a 35% strategy, but his strategy probably doesn't include the SE outside London regardless as others have stated
What odds it is nicknamrd the "South East England Tax" Still, it won't cost Labour many seats.
Hell, unlike a nickname like the 'Bedroom tax', that nickname would make it more popular a tax for many after all. Ed may not be pursuing a 35% strategy, but his strategy probably doesn't include the SE outside London regardless as others have stated
Labour have given up on One Nation.
They were the last to finally give up (none giving up willingly, obviously), though despite seeming a lot more like the EIP the last couple of days, I think technically UKIP are the only party with representation in all the 4 nations, albeit minor in 3 of them?
though much of it sounds childish and silly I think it'll strike a chord.
Probably. Looking at just the highlight comments above, several of them look pretty appealing from certain lights, or at the least obviously appealing to certain demos.
After escaping the Aberdonian grey to the faded elegance of the South of France I listened to Ed's speech which I found rather dull and the passion phoney......I think it'll probably go down well.
I was also disappointed by it. Glad I wasn't alone.
I've given up on the idea that people share my prejudices (I wish some Tories on here would have a similar epiphany) and though much of it sounds childish and silly I think it'll strike a chord.
Hear Hear! It's so boring when people campaign on PB. Possibly the least effective form of campaigning known to man.
When I arrived someone gave me an Aker Bilk CD and asked me to listen to it before throwing it into the poubelle. Now I'm hooked which Just shows that even crap can make an impact if the time and place is right....
Ed's speech today lacks anything as tangible and specific as last year's freeze on energy prices.
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
Mr. L. The NHS budget is North of £100bn per annum. The additional taxes Miliband was talking about might raise about £2.5bn per annum. An additional 2.5%. How will that change the care you get? It won't.
I'm aware of the numbers, thanks.
I'm interested in what the public will think - and 99.9% of the public won't have a clue what the numbers are.
Most people think 500m is a big sum for the government. The way the State pisses up the money, it's gone in 6 hours.
Comments
'Iraq/Syria:
Strong rumours that the French defence attache in Baghdad has been killed in a bomb attack. Still awaiting confirmation. Curiously enough just a day or so after France officially announced its air force involvement in strikes and the very imminent nature of the 1st actual strikes in Syria.'
Very Imminent turned out to be 2 hours. More later on what success or otherwise those strikes have had.
Great Yarmouth Tory councillor defects to UKIP http://www.greatyarmouthmercury.co.uk/news/great_yarmouth_tory_councillor_defects_to_ukip_1_3780519 … Welcome home Sue....
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rockefeller-trust-will-divest-itself-oil-investments-n208766
I managed to find this
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/ed-milibands-speech-instant-reactions/#disqus_thread
Which is largely "Parts of it were quite good"
The world, on the whole, is not blown away.
I'm beginning to wonder if, in June 2015, we will look back on the Ed Milliband premiership that wasn't, and say to ourselves "Nah, that was never gonna happen"
We may well persuade ourselves that we thought that all along.
It's odd. Usually crap conf speeches are crap in real time, while crap budgets unravel over 24 hours. ed has managed both at once.
1. The amount raised will not fill the amount needed so where's the rest coming from?
2. Last year the mansion tax was going to fund a 10p tax rate for the poorest. Has that now been forgotten?
Odd that EdM's big idea on solidarity is to abandon those on the lowest incomes in favour of people like doctors .
http://www.ukip.org/conference_agenda
"Ask at reception to send you up nick Palmer. "
Typo I hope?
He said that the self employed would get equal rights to the employed.
Currently the self employed pay lower NIC because they have less rights (9% rather than 12% up to the upper earnings limit, so approximately £1k difference). In addition there is no equivalence to Employers NIC (13.8%).
So if you increase the rights for the self employed this should go hand in hand with a corresponding NIC increase otherwise you are penalising the employed.
Vote Labour for higher NIC bills?
You would be hard pressed to find a big house for £2 million anywhere in inner London and with London house price inflation how long before houses well below that value get sucked into this tax.
W
Wonder if the other parties will strike a similar tone.
With all the 'Together' being used.
Can we call it the Village People method?
Apologies if someone up thread has already made this gag but I have only been awake for an hour as working nights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wc-AQJ2MYo
and find out that the 10p tax is being funded by the money earmarked for the marriage tax allowance by the Tories.
Next?
Actually, is there is not an argument for all employers to pay the 13% NI charge? Just because someone is employing themselves is no reason why they should be let off paying their fair share. As an employer they should pay the employers tariff and as an employee they should pay NIC as every other person does.
I really think Miliband is on to something with treating self-employed as is they were employed.
(rolls eyes)
The more people are caught the more opposition you are likely to face and the more you risk facing the "asset rich/cash poor" problem / throwing grannies who've lived their all their lives out / penalising families issues.
More council tax bands at the top end would be better.
I do find it depressing that Labour's sole rationale appears to be the NHS. Not because a well organised health service is not a good thing. It is. How it's organised is neither here nor there provided that people's health is well looked after. But that their credo is devotion (love, even) to one particular form of organisation which was current in 1948. For a progressive party it's a very backward looking and rather rose-tinted view
Labour are like the Downton Abbey devotees of politics: confusing warm-hearted stories with real life.
@shadsy @peterthepunter @peterfromputney @quincel @pulpstar @neil @antifrank
Has anyone else seen a worse opening price that Hills 1/50 (FIFTY TO ONE ON) labour in Heywood and Middleton
But I wonder if there is some way of voluntarily getting them to part with their cash. Could we sell them titles? Proper ones, not those silly highland titles that Americans buy. Baronetcy for a hospital.
Senior Lab figure told me private polling towards end of campaign put Yes on 53 - that number that panicked them, rather than Yougov poll
If this is true,the Quebec surge could have resulted in an 8 point turnaround.Nothing else explains it,apart from Gordon Brown who can claim it for himself.Gordon saved the union,not a late Quebec surge.
You should marry for love, not a fucking tax break.
The info I saw said it meant the 10% band would be buttons if only paid for by the MTA being abolished. eg
Personal allowance is £10,000
10% would be just the next £200 on top - so on income between £10,000 and £10,200 you only pay 10% at that margin.
That 10% tax saving is a whopping £20. max.
The reason why pretty much every country in Western Europe provides some sort of benefit to marriage is because of the evidence that is, by far and away, the best way of bringing up children and reducing the social and other costs of not having stable families. Given that those costs are borne by the state and others, it's not unreasonable for them to take such a view.
You could have marriage and child-rearing wholly unrecognised by the tax system, along with all sorts of other things and that is a valid view. But Labour want to go down the route of "sin" taxes on activities/goods considered harmful so why not also reward those activities that are considered good/helpful? There is an inconsistency in their approach: very strong on being judgmental about bad things but then shying away when asked why they are not willing to support, in some small way, good things.
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·29 mins
Here's what EdM was *meant* to say. Migration quote deleted from Lab website but here's original: http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/105216/cached_version_of_ed_miliband_speech_uploaded_to_labourorguk_at_1617_gmt.html …
I don't see why it should incentivise anything.
But you try taking the incentives away, and boy you'll hear some screams.
Are you having a dig at poor old Bobajob there???
Jonathan Isaby@isaby·14 mins
At our @the_tpa @iealondon fringe @SimonDanczuk says Labour should've backed cutting 50p tax rate to 40p when Coalition Govt cut it to 45p
Exactly what it needed to be.
He's done barnstorming before, that wasn't necessary today.
The fact that Rentoul and Hodges hated it is great news.
Where have I heard that before?
If this were true, Europe's leaders would be short-sighted fools. The Conservative party has problem over Europe because significant chunk of the UK electorate do. It isn't top of their priority list, but they are pretty unhappy with the whole EU project. As long as this continues, the EU will have a British problem - decade after decade of the UK obstructing EU plans and flirting with the exit - hardly in Europe's best interests.
Labour, rambling on about the NHS. Boooring! When will they ever change the record?
When Labour wheel out the NHS on a trolley, you know they're in trouble.
It lacked policy detail, it was very emotional and humorous, in total a very light speech, easy for the public to digest.
When just listening it sounded like a Blair speech pre-1997, you could only distinguish it by Miliband's lisp.
In short, I give it 4 out of 5 stars. (the lack of policy details, the lisp, and votes for kids were the minus)
It's his intellectual self confidence. No need to confuse the little people with tricky matters. Far better to dwell on the magic money tree, the unicorns and the pegasus for all.
But I was amused at the sense of entitlement from those who were well off by any standards at this change. It was the sort of sense of entitlement that reminded me of nothing so much as the attitude of some of our more greedy bankers.
I don't buy the whole "Labour is in trouble" in Heywood, logic dictates that they should get at least the same votes as last time, even if the local Labour party is in civil war mood.
'Evening all, I gather via Twitter that Milibland managed to completely forget the section in his speech on the economy and deficit'
Yes the two biggest polling issues, the economy & immigration were ignored,still at the blank piece of paper stage.
But the odds have moved from 1/50 to 2/9
Still 81% implied chance of a Labour win, but the opening price was a shocker
Forget whether it's right or wrong - the energy freeze is specific, easy to understand, and most importantly affects almost everybody directly. Everybody pays energy bills.
Saying you will spend more on the NHS is far more woolly and affects people much less directly.
Everyone already knows Labour likes the NHS. But how will this extra money actually change the care you get? It's impossible to say or even guess - there is no way of knowing.
I think he would have been better to announce the energy freeze this year, much nearer the GE.
Particularly since, if the strategy does not work, it makes it easier to enter into a coalition with the Lib Dems, whose policy it originally was.
It's clever politics. It's why I think the Tories are wrong to underestimate EdM or to see him as their secret weapon.
It's not winning the election which is the issue. I think Labour could well win in May 2015. It's how such policies work when they have to govern.
-Depends what he passed away from really. If it was pneumonia, bedsores and clostridium dificile, then the answer to his question would probably be 'alive'.
No it's not Ed, it's everyone's.
If The Labour Party want sole ownership, they can pay for it themselves.
It should be half that.
My only objection to the Mansion Tax is that it's a quick answer to a more complex problem which needs resolution and that's the financing of loca, Government and amidst all the talk of devolution since last Friday I've heard nobody address this.
The current system of financing local Government is unfair - there is no "fair" system because the country isn't one homogenous entity but made up of very different places. The central problem remains he who pays the piper calls the tune and as much of local Government is still financed from central Government it's inevitable Whitehall/Westminster wants a say.
With the evolution of Academies and Free Schools and a small loosening of central control on what Councils can and cannot do, some far-sighted authorities are looking at strategic partnerships and alternative income streams as a way of reducing dependency on the central Govenrment handout but with the demand for school places and the cost and demand for the care of vulnerable adults and children rising well above inflation, Councils remain under strong financial pressure to be efficient and effective and I would contend many of all stripes are extremely lean.
Labour should be arguing for more tax raising powers for local Councils based on local referenda or more frequent elections. I doubt the Mansion Tax will damage Labour too severely in places like East Ham even though it's possible some riverside properties in Royal Docks will fall into the Mansion Tax bracket.
At the very least, all sides need to look long and hard at the Council Tax bands and instigatre a comprehensive review and revaluation recognising the huge differential in house prices across the country (as well as the huge differential in other costs).
That seems fair.
I'm interested in what the public will think - and 99.9% of the public won't have a clue what the numbers are.
I've given up on the idea that people share my prejudices (I wish some Tories on here would have a similar epiphany) and though much of it sounds childish and silly I think it'll strike a chord.
When I arrived someone gave me an Aker Bilk CD and asked me to listen to it before throwing it into the poubelle. Now I'm hooked which Just shows that even crap can make an impact if the time and place is right....
Wonder if Ed has worked out a personal dodge for it same as he did with Deed of Variation.
Why? If your idea is tax those you dislike, why not come up with a tax on mosques, halal restaurants, veils...
I thought he was against air raids in faraway lands?
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a4d_1185465338&comments=1
Most people think 500m is a big sum for the government.
The way the State pisses up the money, it's gone in 6 hours.