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  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?

    Channel 4 News ‏@Channel4News 7m
    Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr

    I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.
    There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.

    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Don't forget, tonights yougov Labour lead of 7 is before Ed's speech.
    The full impact will be known by Thursday, if today's numbers are not a fluke I expect Labour to hit a peak of 40%.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So the SNP are on a high after the massive NO vote...

    @faisalislam: SNP MSP quits over NATO stance... Majority down to 1 at holyrood... http://t.co/KFDXKBk4A1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I hope UKIP do win in Heywood, it would create far more panic among the top parties if both of them are not only losing vote share but actual seats, but I'm inclined to agree with whoever down below mentioned the lack of desperation coming from Labour at the moment means they are predicting an easy win. They could be wrong, these things happen, but it just feels like at the moment UKIP are a real bother to Labour but not as much of a threat as UKIP are to the Tories.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091



    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.

    Very true. Your typical Lib Dem voter in a northern working-class town is much different to a Lib Dem voter in Cambridge.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
    Aw diddums.

    Stop moaning and pay up.

    We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Scott_P said:

    So the SNP are on a high after the massive NO vote...

    @faisalislam: SNP MSP quits over NATO stance... Majority down to 1 at holyrood... http://t.co/KFDXKBk4A1

    Sensible of him not to want to distract from the referendum campaign in even a small way, but why did it take him so many years to resign when others resigned immediately over the issue? His other comments are pretty vague.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?

    Channel 4 News ‏@Channel4News 7m
    Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr

    I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.
    There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.

    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014
    I see Nicolas Sarkozy believes gay marriage involves "humiliating families and humiliating people who love the family.”"

    I wonder whether his first, second and third wives agree?
  • Danny565 said:

    EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.

    People who don't care will think the Conservatives are wasting time on something irrelevant.

    People who do care will be annoyed by Cameron's behaviour and think that only UKIP will 'stand up for England'.

  • Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
    Aw diddums.

    Stop moaning and pay up.

    We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.

    All your money belong to us. Eh?

  • Speedy said:

    TSE's Tory EV4EL surge continues:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 31s
    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
    LAB - 38% (+3)
    CON - 31% (-2)
    UKIP - 15% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (=)
    GRN - 5% (=)

    Extra
    Votes
    4
    Ed's
    Labour
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?

    Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring

    Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
    Aw diddums.

    Stop moaning and pay up.

    We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.

    All your money belong to us. Eh?

    Of course not

    But we're all in this together
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited September 2014
    kle4 said:

    I hope UKIP do win in Heywood, it would create far more panic among the top parties if both of them are not only losing vote share but actual seats, but I'm inclined to agree with whoever down below mentioned the lack of desperation coming from Labour at the moment means they are predicting an easy win. They could be wrong, these things happen, but it just feels like at the moment UKIP are a real bother to Labour but not as much of a threat as UKIP are to the Tories.


    From a journo in the Manchester Evening News - Also a comment about Simon Danczuk further down the thread https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/514469551778844674
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
    Aw diddums.

    Stop moaning and pay up.

    We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
    Heh heh, those lower down the food chain will get clobbered.

    Now, what do you think about Miliband's plan for regional devolution and the resulting fragmentation of the NHS?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?

    Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring

    Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony

    Spoken like a true Thatcherite.

    Voice of the working classes.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    Balls Bounce?

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%

    If it's running true to pattern it will have:

    a) Labour at about 47 in London
    b) Very low LD - Tory switchers (9 seems to recur)
    c) It will show Labour in the lead with ABs

    It's about a 1 in 5/1 in 6 poll pattern with YG and Populus.


  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Speedy said:

    Today's Mansion, is tomorrow's South East Family Home.

    We all know where this idea is heading.

    How many people with mansions in the south east vote Labour?
    So it's really about clobbering non Labour voters?

    Define 'mansion' - Downton Abbey or a West London family house?
    A house worth more than 2 million - TWO MILLION - pounds.
    Why not lower? You've already said that you'd prefer £1 million.

    How about any properties falling within the top 10% of values for their area? Does that seem fair?
    Aw diddums.

    Stop moaning and pay up.

    We're all in this together, you Tories can't expect disabled and unemployed people to bear all of the burden any more.
    How much of the tax burden are the disabled and unemployed bearing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Socrates said:

    I see Nicolas Sarkozy believes gay marriage involves "humiliating families and humiliating people who love the family.”"

    I wonder whether his first, second and third wives agree?

    He's just creating more families.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Speedy said:

    TSE's Tory EV4EL surge continues:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 31s
    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
    LAB - 38% (+3)
    CON - 31% (-2)
    UKIP - 15% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (=)
    GRN - 5% (=)

    Extra
    Votes
    4
    Ed's
    Labour
    Stupendous sir!
  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?

    Channel 4 News ‏@Channel4News 7m
    Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr

    I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.
    There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.

    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    PB Kippers sticking up for the richest against the working class and poor again I see, like the Establishment cronies they are.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    My wife became a US citizen yesterday. Our daughter and I went along to the ceremony. 255 folks from 46 countries took the oath.

    The keynote speaker was the 'one vote mayor' of Morrow, where the ceremony was held. This guy -

    http://www.cbs46.com/story/16009147/morrow-mayor-elect-jb-burke-wins-by-one-vote

    After his speech, big applause.

    After taking the oath of alegiance -big applause

    After the video of Lee Greenwood's God Bless the USA (yes, we all waved flags), big applause and many tears.

    After a video welcome by President Obama - total silence.

    The League of Women Voters had a stall set up at the event, so she's registered to vote.

    Thursday she has an appointment at the Post Office to get a US passport. After that we'll have 6 passports between the three of us -3 UK, 3 US

    When she went back to work today, the staff had decorated her office in red white and blue, and they had a party for her.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    "How much of the tax burden are the disabled and unemployed bearing? "

    Quite a bit through indirect taxation.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Danny565 said:

    EV4EL was simply never going to work for the Tories, they totally overestimated how much people cared about the constitution. If they'd pledged to cut Scottish spending down to English levels then that would've been a much bigger hit.

    It's all about priorities.
    To most people, money is a priority and to Tory english voters giving more money and rights to scotland while reducing theirs is unfair.
    Just like with the other english Tory priority, europe, you have to put it in context of money and the right to your own money for people to care (UKIP does that very good).

    English devolution will become in time the battlefield of another Tory civil war, like europe has.
    It's not about the general publc, it's about placating Tory voters.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?

    Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring

    Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony

    Spoken like a true Thatcherite.

    Voice of the working classes.
    Force the rich to divide up their homes into multiple occupancy residences too

    Tax colour tv

    Ban books

    Etc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    N Robinson Miliband did not mention the deficit once nor immigration 'he forgot'
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    "How much of the tax burden are the disabled and unemployed bearing? "

    Quite a bit through indirect taxation.

    Exactly, taxation which the labour party are quite happy about and want to increase.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?

    Channel 4 News ‏@Channel4News 7m
    Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr

    I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.
    There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.

    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
    Lets wait for the constituency poll.
    But if the Labour front bench doesn't give a toss aside from leaks then why should we expect UKIP to get close to them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Northern Editor of The Guardian

    Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
    23/09/2014 18:57
    Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Socrates said:

    Speedy said:

    This is ridiculous, how can Labour be in a danger to lose a safe Labour seat?

    Channel 4 News ‏@Channel4News 7m
    Shadow Labour cabinet fears about losing the Heywood and Middleton by-election to Ukip #c4news @MichaelLCrick http://bit.ly/1Cc8Cpr

    I struggle to believe they can lose a safe seat when they are on 35% on the polls. This is just expectations ramping, I suspect.
    There are issues specific to this seat, which make Labour's position weaker than it should be.

    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.
    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
    I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)
  • @Ishmael

    Good for you. You are right. Lucky's was an effing miserable post by someone who has no experience of marriage never mind working at a marriage.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    isam said:

    Northern Editor of The Guardian

    Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
    23/09/2014 18:57
    Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified

    Err...as I was saying at 10/1.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    HYUFD said:

    BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments

    Alex who? The fat bloke who resigned after losing something last week? Is he still around?
  • New Thread
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:

    BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments

    I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.

    Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited September 2014
    Itajai said:

    200,000 new houses?

    How many million third world immigrants will Labour import to shore up their vote bank (and ISIS strength). Will these houses be pre-allocated to them? Probably.

    typical response from a loony, fruitcake and closet rascist...
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5939153/labour-fear-ukip-by-election-win.html

    Don't read it but I assume it is backing what I said a few nights ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    The Watcher/kle4 Still making sure he keeps his presence known while he can
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Where's TSE this evening - hope that he's following these penalties...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Why not tax all the rich until they are worth the same as all the poor once they have got their increase to £8 an hour?

    Then take the pressure off families by providing free care such as sure start for all the kids so that both working parents can earn enough money without the stress of bringing up their offspring

    Creativity will flourish as no one will want for anything, and violence will cease as previous friction caused by inequality is replaced by peace and harmony

    Spoken like a true Thatcherite.

    Voice of the working classes.
    Force the rich to divide up their homes into multiple occupancy residences too

    Tax colour tv

    Ban books

    Etc
    I thought you were in favour of the bedroom tax that's all the mansion tax is but targeted properly
  • Ishmael_X said:


    I still get afternoon sex, and I'm old enough (judging by your screen name) to be your father.
    I also still rinse the sink after shaving. Don't be so miserable.

    I'm delighted for you -sincerely. I was not being miserable -just using words to illustrate my point.
  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:


    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.

    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
    I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)
    Its in the COUNTY of GREATER Manchester not the CITY of Manchester.

    Heywood and Middleton are two middling ex mill towns in the Pennine foothills.

    Their postal addresses will be Heywood, Lancashire and Middleton, Lancashire.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    On way home from Manchester pb meet. TSE gave us the YG revverse bounce news that cheered me and Nick
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    edited September 2014

    HYUFD said:

    BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments

    Alex who? The fat bloke who resigned after losing something last week? Is he still around?
    I know right? Why is he feeling the need to make a statement every time someone breathes a word about Scotland? JOG ON.
  • Personally think UKIP will give Labour a scare but fall short in Heywood.

    If you look at 2010:

    Lab 40, Con 27, LD 23, BNP 7, UKIP 3,

    At Wythenshawe the changes were Lab +11, UKIP +15, Con -11, LD -17, BNP -1

    If something similar happened in Heywood that would take us to

    Lab 51, UKIP 18, Con 16, LD 6, BNP 6

    Now Con aren't as strong in Heywood so lets move 5% from them to UKIP. BNP are in decline so lets move 3% from them to UKIP. That takes us to:

    Lab 51, UKIP 26, Con 11, LD 6, BNP 3

    Now lets take 10% from Lab and give to UKIP due to grooming and lets take 3% from Lab and give to Green who will presumably stand. Even then we end up with:

    Lab 38, UKIP 36, Con 11, LD 6, BNP 3, Green 3

    Personally think Lab will hold with a 5% majority (about 1200)
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227

    Am I right in thinking Labour's proposed tax on tobacco companies would tax company profits (which includes profits from exports and from sales of other items like e-cigs, which some tobacco companies are moving into) based on UK market share? Would it apply to all companies selling tobacco in the UK (even if the UK formed but a tiny fraction of their global sales) or only to UK-domiciled companies (which would put British firms at a disadvantage to foreign competitors and encourage moving HQs offshore)?

    A lot of this seems completely barmy either way but I am not sure to what extent the reporting is full or accurate. I certainly can't make much sense of what I've read about it.

    The problem with making fags more expensive is that consumers will look for a cheaper alternative. They will either travel abroad and bring some back or go direct to the black market and buy from "white van man".

    In either case the tax take to the exchequer goes down.

  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    murali_s said:

    Itajai said:

    200,000 new houses?

    How many million third world immigrants will Labour import to shore up their vote bank (and ISIS strength). Will these houses be pre-allocated to them? Probably.

    typical response from a loony, fruitcake and closet rascist...
    So true then
  • Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:



    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.

    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
    Lets wait for the constituency poll.
    But if the Labour front bench doesn't give a toss aside from leaks then why should we expect UKIP to get close to them?
    Heywood & Middleton are wwc towns 'up north' so not of much interest to EdM and his chums.

    They don't even have football teams that they can pretend to be lifelong supporters of.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Sometimes you look at some of the YouGov numbers and think the electorate are really stupid.

    But then you remember the laws of stats and sample sizes and error factors and standard deviation.

    All polls are pretty meaningless until 2015

  • A quick post about ISIS.

    -Telegraph recently: 49 Turkish hostages released by ISIS totally unscathed http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11110558/Islamic-State-releases-49-Turkish-hostages-seized-in-northern-Iraq.html
    'reasons behind release unclear'

    -Going a bit further back, 46 Indian nurses, freed by ISIS without so much as a scratch http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/indian-nurses-reach-mosul-kerala-cm-says-they-are-safe/article1-1236585.aspx
    'External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in constant touch with her counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to leverage their influence over the Sunni insurgents to seek the release of Indians being held captive, sources said.'

    So Turkey, incidentally the main conduit for these savages to get into Syria (still wide open, not a word uttered by us or the US), gets its people back nice and safe, avoiding tough questions at home on their unpopular policy on this issue. India gets in touch with KSA, Qatar and the UAE -to use THEIR INFLUENCE in ISIS, and the nurses get away untouched. Notice these same countries are the ones joining the US on this new bombing campaign AGAINST ISIS. No prizes for guessing how many actual ISIS targets they'll hit.

    But no quiet diplomacy for our hostages -we need to be mentally bludgeoned into sanctioning another vastly expensive bombing campaign, therefore we get treated to these ridiculous orange pyjama videos complete with thuddingly obvious reverse psychology. 'Don't bomb ISIS (we mean do)'. etc. etc.

    This is about SYRIA. The beheaders are OUR people (at least, the yanks and the Wahhabi Arab's). Has anyone got a satisfactory reason as to why the US is so obsessed with removing one Arab dictator when it gets on so well with so many who are far worse? This seems as good as any to me: http://nsnbc.me/2014/09/11/us-yet-trying-create-oil-gas-collapse-russia/

    *cue 'conspiraloon' comments*
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:


    Ironically Labour lost adjacent Rochdale whilst in opposition in 1972.

    At the following election the Conservatives got the most votes but Labour got the most MPs.

    The parallels between now and the 1970s keep appearing.

    In 1972 the biggest problem already of the day was the failure of Ted Heath's economic and trade union policies, also some Labour voters were disappointed by the drift to the left.
    That caused a shift from the Tories and Labour to the Liberals as the natural "their both crap" party, Rochdale in 72 was a harbinger of what was coming in 1974.

    In this case the Labour party is increasing in strength from the previous election, not decreasing.
    Labour is increasing its support among middle class lefties and urban voters.

    Its losing wwc voters in the industrial towns.

    Now which demographic dominates in Heywood & Middleton.
    Not enough in Heywood to overcome the flood of ex-liberals to Labour.
    It will be interesting to see.

    But a large proportion of former LibDem voters there will be anti-Lab and anti-Con protest voters. Now which party is cornering that vote at present.

    The assumption that you can simply add half of the previous LibDems voters to the 2010 Labour total has been rather demolished during the last 18 months.
    Polls show a third of LD votes going to Labour, with about a sixth going to UKIP, a seventh going to the Tories and about a tenth to the Greens.
    But it varies from place to place.

    In Manchester Labour will be picking up huge numbers of former LibDem voters whilst UKIP get almost none.

    In Heywood & Middleton things will be different.
    I agree with you, however, a little tip,Middleton is in Manchester ;-)
    Its in the COUNTY of GREATER Manchester not the CITY of Manchester.

    Heywood and Middleton are two middling ex mill towns in the Pennine foothills.

    Their postal addresses will be Heywood, Lancashire and Middleton, Lancashire.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middleton,_Greater_Manchester I refer you to the postal town situated in the box on the bottom right
This discussion has been closed.