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Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    Well, I am shocked. Just shocked.
  • GE in 2024.

    The PM just announced it!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    edited September 2022
    OnboardG1 said:

    Puts him in a strong position if Truss fucks it tbh. That was not an especially convincing win.
    "Truss" and "convincing" in the same para? Be a while before that happens again...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    She's awkward, her voice is annoying, she does not speak well, she's got a weird suggestive BDSM necklace, she's likely a disaster

    On the other hand, the necklace says she really doesn't give a fuck. That may just save her. She will never be liked in the Boris way, but she *might* actually get stuff done
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,655
    This is a very poor speech. Even by the low standards we saw during the campaign.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    I miss Boris. @HYUFD is right

    The Tories have made a mahoosive error

    Have they though? Perhaps they might bring back Boris as the Messiah right before a general election. He'd be more popular doing that than if he stayed on.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Truss had the right wing press on her side and the Sunak betrayed Bozo mantra and didn’t even manage to get over 60% of the membership vote .

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    Selebian said:

    81-60 = 19? They say education standards are slipping, but given the relative (I think) ages of you two we can safely assume they've always been awful :tongue:
    Oh yeah, 21,000. I must have been as excited as HY
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    This speech is a little bit "cheese", isn't it?

    Put it off. She really isn't a public speaker whatever else she proves to be.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301
    nico679 said:


    Truss had the right wing press on her side and the Sunak betrayed Bozo mantra and didn’t even manage to get over 60% of the membership vote .

    It was clear from the London hustings that Sunak had more support in that part of the country.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    I had to turn it off. Too cringe
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,842
    Poor result for Truss tbh, after all that ramping she got 57% of members.
  • I think Truss can’t appoint a cabinet full of her right wingers based on those numbers.

    She’s fecked from day one. Not really a strong mandate from the membership , none from the country

    She'll be about as popular as a Xmas lockdown come the end of September.

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Yep. He should stick around now rather than piss off to CA. He has a great chance to the 'I bloody told you all so' candidate in a year.
    I wonder if this puts him in the prince-in-exile role that would let him undermine her for months before sinking the knife in. He clearly hates her and the parliamentary party don’t like her either.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022
    Let's all "deliver" together. Truss is so delivery-committed that she's even going to "deliver a plan"! She has zero care for the meaning of what she says. Reminiscent of Blair in that regard.

    Deliver! Deliver! What a f***ing moron...
    glw said:

    This is a crap speech. Did she not prepare it?

    She's probably nervous about meeting who she's got to meet this afternoon...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
    Someone needs to stand next to her and clap at appropriate junctures
  • I. Will. Wait. For. The. Applause. However long it takes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    She's awkward, her voice is annoying, she does not speak well, she's got a weird suggestive BDSM necklace, she's likely a disaster

    On the other hand, the necklace says she really doesn't give a fuck. That may just save her. She will never be liked in the Boris way, but she *might* actually get stuff done

    Until about 10 or 15 years ago the Tories always won the female vote at general elections. One thing she may be able to do is turn that around to some extent.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Vastly close than I thought it would be. Feel better about zeroing out Sunak rather than having any risk.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    I need reminding how many female PMs the progressive Labour party have had now.
  • I am not impressed with her speech and the result indicates she needs to take care in appointing her cabinet

    Interesting times ahead but in the end it is her col announcements this week that really matter
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923
    Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    She's already conceded Scotland?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    Eabhal said:

    That's kinda close. Just wonder if Sunak had stuck to his guns on competence/realism, he might have squeezed through.
    As the campaign went on, he was the only one persuading listeners - problem was votes were cast early in the campaign without actually listening to it. If they had voting after the last hustings, it would have been closer still.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
    Tory MPs must know. They must. Just watching her right now, they are surely thinking: We're fucked.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1566754161231904769
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945
    Leon said:

    If you - or any PB-er - can give me a quick easy way to peel and slice/crush garlic I will fiercely support Scottish independence til the end of time. None of the gimmicky tricks work, and garlic crushers don't do it properly, and are messy and annoying. Jamie Oliver says prepping garlic is his least favourite task, and reminds him of nightmare hours doing it as a trainee chef at the River Cafe

    I know what he means
    I'm no chef (at all) but about six years ago we bought a garlic grater from Liverpool Food and Drink festival. From these guys I think: https://thegreatgarlicgrater.co.uk/product-category/ginger-and-garlic-grater-buy-uk/

    Never used it till about six months ago when the wife signed us up to HelloFresh. HelloFresh use garlic in everything and it's been amazing to use. Peels the cloves in a plastic sleeve (just roll it) and then rub the clove against the plate.
    It does always leave a bit 'ungrated' at the end (unless you want to grate your fingers) but I must admit it was a great buy.

    Also, we've got the same old grater that TUD recommends and that still works a treat too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    What happened to the smoother Truss - the smoother Truss - of the later hustings?

    This is the worst prime minister in recorded history
  • Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    Support ends abruptly at Carlisle though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    @theresa_may
    Congratulations
    @TrussLiz
    .

    We
    @Conservatives
    must now work together to address the challenges facing our country. Tackling the cost of living, delivering for those in need & managing the public finances responsibly. I look forward to supporting the government in that task.
    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1566754735289425920?s=20&t=v0kVHcvhSeU8JqxNt7tObw
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953
    Andy_JS said:

    It was clear from the London hustings that Sunak had more support in that part of the country.
    Fraser Nelson claiming it was 80-20 Sunak in the South.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited September 2022

    I am not impressed with her speech and the result indicates she needs to take care in appointing her cabinet

    Interesting times ahead but in the end it is her col announcements this week that really matter

    Notably Truss paid tribute to Boris but did not even mention Rishi, so suggests her Cabinet will be dominated by Boris loyalists and Truss backers
  • Leon said:

    What happened to the smoother Truss - the smoother Truss - of the later hustings?

    This is the worst prime minister in recorded history

    Premature but likely prescient.
  • So the same people who didn't like Truss yesterday, didn't like her speech today.

    It was awkward but so is she, but she's also been elected to do the job as she has the right proposals to do it well. And Starmer doesn't exactly set the bar high there either.

    If the Party or Country wanted a smooth public showman they could have kept Boris.

    If Truss honours her promises and abolishes the NI surcharge that Rishi introduced then she'll have done what she promised and deserved the job for that alone. If she backtracks on that, then let her lose the next election.
  • This makes Keir look charismatic lol
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I’m not going to criticize Truss for a dull speech . In the great scheme of things what’s important is what she delivers which I expect to be two years of division and othering supported by an arse licking right wing press .

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    Fraser Nelson claiming it was 80-20 Sunak in the South.
    90 10 in the red wall then?!
  • And so it begins...


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    6m
    Truss delivering a speech more stiff than Theresa May; audience missed cue to clap Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Chris said:

    She's already conceded Scotland?
    I don't think even Boris would say he is loved in Scotland, Truss though grew up in Paisley
  • What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881
    HYUFD said:

    Notably Truss paid tribute to Boris but did not even mention Rishi, so suggests her Cabinet will be dominated by Boris loyalists and Truss backers
    Er, yes she did

    Her speech was shit but she did praise Sunak
  • HYUFD said:

    @theresa_may
    Congratulations
    @TrussLiz
    .

    We
    @Conservatives
    must now work together to address the challenges facing our country. Tackling the cost of living, delivering for those in need & managing the public finances responsibly. I look forward to supporting the government in that task.
    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1566754735289425920?s=20&t=v0kVHcvhSeU8JqxNt7tObw

    Are you supporting that tweet
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Time until Conservatives are booted out of office... 5...4...3...2...1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577

    Oh - and I’d be well chuffed if I were Sunak. I’d sit out this next phase of govt and make a comeback when it all goes inevitably tits up

    Nah. If by Christmas she is as popular as scofula, the party will grovel to Wallace to take the job in a coronation.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    So the next general election will pit a comprehensive educated Tory leader against a privately educated Labour leader for the first time since 2001 and we do get our first PM ever fully educated at a Comprehensive.

    Winchester still has not produced a PM since Henry Addison in the early 19th century
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs must know. They must. Just watching her right now, they are surely thinking: We're fucked.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1566754161231904769

    The Conservatives have lost Ian Dunt!?

    Fuchsia me that's a surprise. Sell the Tories.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    edited September 2022
    While Mr. Roberts' 251 tip on Sunak didn't come off directly it made a great trading bet. I buggered things up a little late on but did finish well ahead, based entirely on that great bet suggestion.
  • dixiedean said:

    Fraser Nelson claiming it was 80-20 Sunak in the South.
    Doubt it. Given the geographical spread of Tory members Sunak would have won if that was true. Maybe he means London.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
    ...
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited September 2022

    I'm no chef (at all) but about six years ago we bought a garlic grater from Liverpool Food and Drink festival. From these guys I think: https://thegreatgarlicgrater.co.uk/product-category/ginger-and-garlic-grater-buy-uk/

    Never used it till about six months ago when the wife signed us up to HelloFresh. HelloFresh use garlic in everything and it's been amazing to use. Peels the cloves in a plastic sleeve (just roll it) and then rub the clove against the plate.
    It does always leave a bit 'ungrated' at the end (unless you want to grate your fingers) but I must admit it was a great buy.

    Also, we've got the same old grater that TUD recommends and that still works a treat too.
    Chopping or grating or smashing garlic in the most enjoyable way is one thing. Food prep should be fun. I might buy one of those plates. Let 100 methods bloom.

    But peeling the cloves using anything other than a sharp knife is poncing about.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    The speech is over. The only way is up!
  • One interesting takeaway from this is a rare opportunity to find out how many Tory Party members there are. In 2018 it was 124,000. Recent, supposedly informed, newspaper reports were saying 180,000 - 200,000. Sir GB today says it is just over 160,000.

    Useful marker going forward.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,753

    So the same people who didn't like Truss yesterday, didn't like her speech today.

    It was awkward but so is she, but she's also been elected to do the job as she has the right proposals to do it well. And Starmer doesn't exactly set the bar high there either.

    If the Party or Country wanted a smooth public showman they could have kept Boris.

    If Truss honours her promises and abolishes the NI surcharge that Rishi introduced then she'll have done what she promised and deserved the job for that alone. If she backtracks on that, then let her lose the next election.

    See my post regarding the polling Robert Colville was talking about earlier.

    Unless she targets low to average wage workers (which that NI change doesn't do) she is completely and utterly doomed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,638
    Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    The audience not clapping when they were expected too. Embarrassing.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,557
    Chris said:

    Some mistake surely.
    HYUFD doesn't make mistakes. I'm sure he will explain why he is right really in a minute.
  • HYUFD said:

    Notably Truss paid tribute to Boris but did not even mention Rishi, so suggests her Cabinet will be dominated by Boris loyalists and Truss backers
    She did compliment Rishi
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953

    90 10 in the red wall then?!
    80-20 Truss in the rest.
    That's what he said. I found it jaw dropping.
    A real problem for her if true.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    She'll be about as popular as a Xmas lockdown come the end of September.

    Nah, lockdown had quite a lot of public support.

    It would be popcorn time if the electric wasn't so costly...
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    “Please Clap”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,818
    .

    Support ends abruptly at Carlisle though.
    And for it to be true, you have to select very carefully from the bits in between.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,881

    I'm no chef (at all) but about six years ago we bought a garlic grater from Liverpool Food and Drink festival. From these guys I think: https://thegreatgarlicgrater.co.uk/product-category/ginger-and-garlic-grater-buy-uk/

    Never used it till about six months ago when the wife signed us up to HelloFresh. HelloFresh use garlic in everything and it's been amazing to use. Peels the cloves in a plastic sleeve (just roll it) and then rub the clove against the plate.
    It does always leave a bit 'ungrated' at the end (unless you want to grate your fingers) but I must admit it was a great buy.

    Also, we've got the same old grater that TUD recommends and that still works a treat too.
    Thanks!

    The Tory Party has just delivered to us the worst prime minister in several centuries, who will lead us all to catastrophic poverty by November, but on the other hand I've learned some new things about prepping garlic, so it's swings and roundabouts

    And now, a cycle-ride around Portugal. Later
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    So the next general election will pit a comprehensive educated Tory leader against a privately educated Labour leader for the first time since 2001 and we do get our first PM ever fully educated at a Comprehensive.

    Winchester still has not produced a PM since Henry Addison in the early 19th century

    Fascinating
  • HYUFD said:

    So the next general election will pit a comprehensive educated Tory leader against a privately educated Labour leader for the first time since 2001 and we do get our first PM ever fully educated at a Comprehensive.

    Winchester still has not produced a PM since Henry Addison in the early 19th century

    I really worry that Truss will ruin the prospects of us Comprehensive schooled folk forever.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923

    If the Party or Country wanted a smooth public showman they could have kept Boris.

    I think "suave" is the precise word you're looking for.

    image
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,638
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs must know. They must. Just watching her right now, they are surely thinking: We're fucked.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1566754161231904769

    She’s lost Ian Dunt already !!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    In other news, another 48 KRABs for the Polish Army. Battle-tested in Ukraine, self-propelled tracked howitzers will be Warsaw's backbone of artillery. Teamed up with Korean K9 and HIMARS, Poland will have one of the best artilleries in the world.

    Given the neighbourhood, you need it.
  • MaxPB said:

    Poor result for Truss tbh, after all that ramping she got 57% of members.

    Worse than even IDS,



    The only way is up (baby).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,171

    She did compliment Rishi
    Only cos it was in the script. She completely blanked him on the way up to the stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Leon said:

    Er, yes she did

    Her speech was shit but she did praise Sunak
    Well Sky said she didn't, to be honest switched off after the first few seconds but I doubt Sunak is getting a post in her Cabinet anyway
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Foxy said:

    Nah, lockdown had quite a lot of public support.

    It would be popcorn time if the electric wasn't so costly...
    I’m buying an air fryer so that I can cook in the knowledge that I’m only partially bankrupting myself.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,442
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    See my post regarding the polling Robert Colville was talking about earlier.

    Unless she targets low to average wage workers (which that NI change doesn't do) she is completely and utterly doomed.
    I don't care.

    That tax rise has to go. If that tax rise goes and Labour wins the next election, so be it.

    If she reverses that tax rise AND does whatever else is required to win the next election then all the better.

    If that tax rise stays, then I want the Tories to lose the next election anyway.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    80-20 Truss in the rest.
    That's what he said. I found it jaw dropping.
    A real problem for her if true.
    Worth kerping an eye on the regionsl sub samples (with all appropriate caveats). They are already getting horrific 'south' scores
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953
    Tory Party now cleaved in three.
  • rcs1000 said:

    This morning, my plane touched down at Gatwick at 9:22am, and I was at my flat in Central London at 10:45.

    Thameslink + Crossrail is amazing.

    Welcome back Robert.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
    IDS had a bigger mandate than #ThickLizzy
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,681
    Eabhal said:

    That's kinda close. Just wonder if Sunak had stuck to his guns on competence/realism, he might have squeezed through.
    My prediction was 60-40 - I did think the Sunak boosters who said he still had a chance were not totally deluded. 57-43 is very much a "Well, I suppose so" endorsement.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Alexander Boris dePfefel Johnson, surely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301

    One interesting takeaway from this is a rare opportunity to find out how many Tory Party members there are. In 2018 it was 124,000. Recent, supposedly informed, newspaper reports were saying 180,000 - 200,000. Sir GB today says it is just over 160,000.

    Useful marker going forward.

    172,437 is the total membership if I heard correctly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,155
    "Based on her record as foreign secretary, diplomats and analysts in London and Washington said, relations could get bumpier with the United States and, even more so, with Europe."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/03/world/europe/britain-prime-minister-liz-truss-rishi-sunak.html?smid=tw-share
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Thread has been peeled, pressed and chopped.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,638
    Scott_xP said:

    Someone needs to stand next to her and clap at appropriate junctures

    She’s going to need that for the foreseeable if that’s what she’s going to be like. A victory speech and it was a dud.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    I guess the tone of her time in office is set in her actions this week. Because god help us judging by that speech
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Nigelb said:

    "I will deliver on the National Health Service."

    Is she expecting ?

    I hope so. She’d be entitled to nine months maternity leave. She and her husband get a lovely addition, and someone competent can run the government for nine months.
  • Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    Plus the unspoken feelings north of Carlisle...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Starmer: “there can be no justification for not freezing energy prices and imposing a windfall tax on producers”.

    Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.

    Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,642

    I'm no chef (at all) but about six years ago we bought a garlic grater from Liverpool Food and Drink festival. From these guys I think: https://thegreatgarlicgrater.co.uk/product-category/ginger-and-garlic-grater-buy-uk/

    Never used it till about six months ago when the wife signed us up to HelloFresh. HelloFresh use garlic in everything and it's been amazing to use. Peels the cloves in a plastic sleeve (just roll it) and then rub the clove against the plate.
    It does always leave a bit 'ungrated' at the end (unless you want to grate your fingers) but I must admit it was a great buy.

    Also, we've got the same old grater that TUD recommends and that still works a treat too.
    Thats the beast I use too (as described above) - I really rate it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Alexander Boris dePfefel Johnson, surely?
    SKS as next PM, Sunak as next Tory leader.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    So the next general election will pit a comprehensive educated Tory leader against a privately educated Labour leader for the first time since 2001 and we do get our first PM ever fully educated at a Comprehensive.

    Winchester still has not produced a PM since Henry Addison in the early 19th century

    Addington
  • eekeek Posts: 29,753

    I don't care.

    That tax rise has to go. If that tax rise goes and Labour wins the next election, so be it.

    If she reverses that tax rise AND does whatever else is required to win the next election then all the better.

    If that tax rise stays, then I want the Tories to lose the next election anyway.
    So how do we pay for social care going forward?

  • So our new PM is a piece of equipment designed to support bollocks. Seems about right.

    Burst bollocks no less
    (yeah, yeah, I know it's not the actual bollocks)
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    HYUFD said:

    Truss wins 57% to 43% for Sunak so a clear win but a bit closer than expected, in fact the closest membership vote of any Tory leadership contest since Tory members got a vote after the 1997 general election
    And how does turnout compare?

    82% is LOWER than the normal General Election turnout for many Blue Wall seats round where I live. Only the Tory leadership election is organised around allowing ample time and opportunity for the postal votes you'd expect a significantly elderly electorate to prefer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301
    Edwina Currie versus Martin Lewis on the energy crisis. I'm with Edwina on this.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11181055/Martin-Lewis-clashes-Edwina-Currie-suggests-putting-foil-radiators.html
  • rcs1000 said:

    This morning, my plane touched down at Gatwick at 9:22am, and I was at my flat in Central London at 10:45.

    Thameslink + Crossrail is amazing.

    You're welcome.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923
    moonshine said:

    Starmer: “there can be no justification for not freezing energy prices and imposing a windfall tax on producers”.

    Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.

    Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.

    Four years as a trainee accountant with Shell?

    We're home and dry.
  • eek said:

    So how do we pay for social care going forward?

    Any funds from the state will come from General Taxation, just as it always has.
This discussion has been closed.