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Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JS said:

    One interesting takeaway from this is a rare opportunity to find out how many Tory Party members there are. In 2018 it was 124,000. Recent, supposedly informed, newspaper reports were saying 180,000 - 200,000. Sir GB today says it is just over 160,000.

    Useful marker going forward.

    172,437 is the total membership if I heard correctly.
    Apologies I thought he said 162,000
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    Andy_JS said:
    Lewis still doesn’t get that there’s not enough supply. He can scream at the government to do something all he likes, but demand has to fall or there will be rationing and blackouts.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Even if Truss freezes energy bills it’s likely the cost will be met by tax payers not the energy companies so still gives Labour an opening to attack her for not doing the windfall tax and instead sparing the bloated profits of the energy companies .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    edited September 2022

    Scott_xP said:
    Alexander Boris dePfefel Johnson, surely?
    If Truss leads the Tories into the next election but loses then Badenoch or Braverman or Patel I would make favourites to become the next Tory leader, with Tugendhat probably facing them in the membership ballot and final 2.

    If she doesn't even make the next election then yes Boris could return
  • Pathetic result for Truss
  • moonshine said:

    Starmer: “there can be no justification for not freezing energy prices and imposing a windfall tax on producers”.

    Other than it will break the market mechanism and lead to rationing, and disincentivise investment in boosting supply.

    Bore off you dimwitted twit. We are in the midst of a once in a generation energy crisis and now have a PM who spent years working in the energy sector. Let’s see what she does.

    When listening to labour their policy is windfall tax, repeat and keep repeating , when in truth it is a part of the equation, but also they are to cancel the £400 October payment saving 14 billion, and have calculated an additional 7 billion from lower interest payments due to reduction in inflation ( this has been challenged by economists)

    Their soundbite on windfall taxes is what the public want to hear but the truth is windfall taxes do not go near, and let us not forget labour policy is only until April when the cap rises to £6,000 and there is nothing of any substance for businesses

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

    Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.

    First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.

    Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.

    So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.

    I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
  • Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    Plus the unspoken feelings north of Carlisle...
    I did think about whether that was a not-so-subtle message, or if I'm just over sensitive to stuff like that. I'm struggling to think of a good C for Scotland though.

    From Kyiv to the Cairngorms? Kyiv to Caithness (though according to my gf people from Caithness are incapable of complex emotions such as love).
  • Pathetic result for Truss

    She's Prime Minister-elect.

    That's a fantastic result for her. Something Starmer would love to achieve himself.

    At the start of this campaign when I was a fairly lone voice on this site endorsing Truss, she was mocked and ridiculed and at odds of 6 or higher. Now she's won it. That's a great result, well done Truss.

    Now she has to deliver.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    @David_Cameron
    Many congratulations to new PM
    @trussliz
    . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Pathetic result for Truss

    She's Prime Minister-elect.

    That's a fantastic result for her. Something Starmer would love to achieve himself.

    At the start of this campaign when I was a fairly lone voice on this site endorsing Truss, she was mocked and ridiculed and at odds of 6 or higher. Now she's won it. That's a great result, well done Truss.

    Now she has to deliver.
    She was mocked and ridiculed at 1.01 too!

    At least I am quids in. About £500 I reckon across the various markets.
  • nico679 said:

    Even if Truss freezes energy bills it’s likely the cost will be met by tax payers not the energy companies so still gives Labour an opening to attack her for not doing the windfall tax and instead sparing the bloated profits of the energy companies .

    The £100 billion proposal is for a 2 year cap funded by the government over 20 years repaid through energy bills

    Listening to Sturgeon yesterday it seems very similar to her proposals as well as the energy industry

    I understand Gemany has just agreed a similar scheme costing 65 billion euros

    You need to understand that a windfall tax, even labour's, goes nowhere near these sums
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799
    Alistair said:

    What time does the buyer's remorse start in Tory WhatsApp groups?

    Having thought about this 57% is really bad for Truss.

    First choice of less than 1-in-6 MPs but deriving her authority from an overwhelming membership mandate was her story.

    Now it's unpopular with MPs, barely prefered by the membership.

    So glad I held off betting on Truss percentage, I was this close to lumping on the 60-69.99 bands this morning.

    I wonder if late deciders went Sunak?
    The closeness of the vote is a pretty compelling reason to get Rishi inside the tent but it is looking increasingly unlikely that that will be the case.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,041
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting that 81,000 votes is 47% of 172k eligible members announced by Sir Graham Brady - so would not have met the threshold the Government sets in law for for union ballots…
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1566754768244117510

    Tweet already deleted, presumably in shame at how much complete bollocks it was.
  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    Unpopular said:

    Ooft, this is a bit cringey. That awkward pause after saying Boris is loved from Kyiv to Carlisle...

    She's already conceded Scotland?
    I don't think even Boris would say he is loved in Scotland, Truss though grew up in Paisley
    Better than Burberry check.
  • Has this really happened???
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624

    nico679 said:

    Even if Truss freezes energy bills it’s likely the cost will be met by tax payers not the energy companies so still gives Labour an opening to attack her for not doing the windfall tax and instead sparing the bloated profits of the energy companies .

    The £100 billion proposal is for a 2 year cap funded by the government over 20 years repaid through energy bills

    Listening to Sturgeon yesterday it seems very similar to her proposals as well as the energy industry

    I understand Gemany has just agreed a similar scheme costing 65 billion euros

    You need to understand that a windfall tax, even labour's, goes nowhere near these sums
    Most of the public aren’t interested in the detail . The windfall tax is very popular with the public . Labour will accuse Truss of putting the bill on tax payers and siding with the energy companies . It’s irrelevant what is the better policy longer term . Labour just need to highlight the Tories aren’t on your side .
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,408
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    I am not impressed with her speech and the result indicates she needs to take care in appointing her cabinet

    Interesting times ahead but in the end it is her col announcements this week that really matter

    Notably Truss paid tribute to Boris but did not even mention Rishi, so suggests her Cabinet will be dominated by Boris loyalists and Truss backers
    She did compliment Rishi
    Only cos it was in the script. She completely blanked him on the way up to the stage.
    I noticed that. I expected her to go straight to him and shake his hand at least. She didn't even glance at him, just smirked and sprung up the steps to Brady.

    He's out of government now. Sunak's choice is to sit it out on the backbenches or leave politics and head to California.

    Problem with sitting it out is that whilst he's still young (he's younger than me - 42) the journey from back bencher to Prime Minister could be a long one.
    Wait for Truss to fail, which is likely to be a GE in 2024 (rather than internally ousted - that isn't really going to happen is it?) before hoping to snatch LotO and hope to win in 2029.
    Gets it wrong (either Truss somehow manages a win in 2024, or Starmer/Labour win in 2024 and 2029) and he's looking at well into the 2030s before he could become PM.
  • nico679 said:



    nico679 said:

    Even if Truss freezes energy bills it’s likely the cost will be met by tax payers not the energy companies so still gives Labour an opening to attack her for not doing the windfall tax and instead sparing the bloated profits of the energy companies .

    The £100 billion proposal is for a 2 year cap funded by the government over 20 years repaid through energy bills

    Listening to Sturgeon yesterday it seems very similar to her proposals as well as the energy industry

    I understand Gemany has just agreed a similar scheme costing 65 billion euros

    You need to understand that a windfall tax, even labour's, goes nowhere near these sums
    Most of the public aren’t interested in the detail . The windfall tax is very popular with the public . Labour will accuse Truss of putting the bill on tax payers and siding with the energy companies . It’s irrelevant what is the better policy longer term . Labour just need to highlight the Tories aren’t on your side .
    Labour have to say how they would cap energy prices for 2 years and how they would provide assistance to businesses at a figure of 100 billion plus as is happening in Germany and across Europe
  • Thank you to everyone who voted for me in this campaign.

    I’ve said throughout that the Conservatives are one family.

    It’s right we now unite behind the new PM, Liz Truss, as she steers the country through difficult times.

    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1566763533093814272
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    HYUFD said:

    @David_Cameron
    Many congratulations to new PM
    @trussliz
    . At this time of challenge & global uncertainty, I wish the new government well. I never forget the support I had from all former Conservative leaders when I won the ballot in 2005 & I hope all Conservatives will unite behind the new PM

    You can bet John Major will already be getting set to denounce her as will Hezza and the rest of the 92-97 Conservative rabble...
  • Why does she talk at that odd cadence?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,666
    Leon said:

    I had to turn it off. Too cringe

    Me too.
This discussion has been closed.