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Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com
Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com
To my mind under 64% seems about right because it appeared as though Truss was having a difficult final few campaign days.
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Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.
Betfair next prime minister
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
40 Rishi Sunak
Next Conservative leader
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
50 Rishi Sunak
ETA and one can't help reflecting that Rishi seemed to do better with groups who had met him or watched the hustings.
Good luck in the hozzie
“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html
Think I really will eff off to bangers
Marshall is slight favourite (1.97 vs 2.24 bf) because people look at her size, her punching power and see that when she connects that's usually it.
However, I fancy Shields to win. When Marshall is dominating an opponent she is ruthless, with shots coming in from every direction, however, as she stalks forwards waiting for that, she is pretty open, as she hasn't had too much come back from many of her opponents beyond Rd1, and she carries her right hand low in particular (Shields won her last fight with a left hook). I think Shields will be too busy for her and, unlike Marshall's other opponents (some of whom have come it at late notice and it showed) will not be intimidated or as hurt if tagged.
Not much in it of course and likely to be a great fight but Shields wins it for me.
😡😡😡😡😡
Downstream energy companies aren't the ones making the big profits so to tax them wouldn't achieve what many people think it would achieve. It's the upstream producers who are making the money and let the UK govt try and find/tax them.
Interestingly, before the upcoming cap increase, "policy taxes" (of which green taxes are the largest component) account for 8% of a "typical" bill (moving to 4% after the cap rise). So the idea of abolishing them is not trivial at all.
Still, at least in the UK winter only lasts 8 months
Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
Hopefully this winter will give pause to the golf club bore tendency who bemoan low energy vacuum cleaners and long for the return of incandescent bulbs.
A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.
The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.
Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.
https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
#France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.
https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369
I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again
It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
There was a Punt and Dennis routine based on a "How to save energy" homework they claimed to have uncovered, with things like "Eat bread instead of toast- it's been baked already, you don't need to cook it again."
May need to dig that out to get information to survive the next few months.
The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon
So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.
Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.
We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.
If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
https://www.procook.co.uk/product/procook-induction-hob-converter-19cm
The airfryer is excellent for pizza.
In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.
That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.
But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
Cue 2022 and it’s going to be worse than lockdown potentially - not only with the pubs closed but when you are at home you will be gathered round the candles listening to
Radio 4 long wave on a battery powered transistor for entertainment.
Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.
And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.
*dives in pool*
I also think the oven being more efficient than the hob isn't right if you live by yourself and aren't doing two casserole dishes per run or something.
We've always done as much as we can to keep energy use low - low energy bulbs, lights off unless in a room, minimally filled kettles etc
You can download your ½ hourly usage for a 90-day period as a csv file from https://data.n3rgy.com/consumer/home after you've signed up to use their portal.
And don't boil one egg, discard the hot water, then decide you want another egg!
Plug this black box into your home and network and we will run stuff on it you can't see to generate heat...
Get me some weekend-away money please Liz.
And they used to sell some military kit.
For the vast majority of people, WFH over the winter will save money compared to commuting.
We still have the problem that, no matter what, demand has to reduce by 15-20% over the winter. Shutting down offices where possible, will make a difference.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-weed-became-new-oxycontin-marijuana-psychosis-addiction
"At that level of potency, the impact of the drug on a user’s brain belongs to an entirely different category of risk than smoking a joint or taking a bong rip of even an intensively bred marijuana flower. It’s highly addictive, and over time, there’s a significant chance it can drive you insane."