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Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited September 2022 in General
imageLatest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com

To my mind under 64% seems about right because it appeared as though Truss was having a difficult final few campaign days.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    I think I'd probably be on the other side of this bet, albeit with not a great deal of confidence: I'd go with 68-32 as my final score.
  • Options
    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak
  • Options
    The Betfair market on vote share became illiquid a day or two back, presumably due to inside information, although possibly fear of inside information!
  • Options
    The `difficult few final days' shouldnt really impact, I would be most surprised if there were many who had left their vote till late last week, I could be wrong however.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,310
    edited September 2022
    The market in the header is one I should avoid as it involves guessing when votes were cast. Was it while Truss was flying high or not?

    ETA and one can't help reflecting that Rishi seemed to do better with groups who had met him or watched the hustings.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,909
    I would like it to be 52/48 for Sunak. Just for the amusement and hearing JRM say that 52/48 is not a mandate.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited September 2022

    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak


    Good luck in the hozzie
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I'd probably be on the other side of this bet, albeit with not a great deal of confidence: I'd go with 68-32 as my final score.

    Pray for it to be under 70% or I’ll never shut up.


  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    There are people with insider knowledge on this bet.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Expectations management so Truss can be hailed as a success when things are slightly less shit than that.
  • Options
    Interesting betting opportunity - Therese Coffey for next PM? She's very likely to be Truss's DPM, and if Truss implodes as badly as speculated, I can see the 1922 requesting she goes immediately at the start of a challenge with Coffey acting as a caretaker until a new leader is elected.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    Cracking fight coming up this week - Marshall/Shields.

    Marshall is slight favourite (1.97 vs 2.24 bf) because people look at her size, her punching power and see that when she connects that's usually it.

    However, I fancy Shields to win. When Marshall is dominating an opponent she is ruthless, with shots coming in from every direction, however, as she stalks forwards waiting for that, she is pretty open, as she hasn't had too much come back from many of her opponents beyond Rd1, and she carries her right hand low in particular (Shields won her last fight with a left hook). I think Shields will be too busy for her and, unlike Marshall's other opponents (some of whom have come it at late notice and it showed) will not be intimidated or as hurt if tagged.

    Not much in it of course and likely to be a great fight but Shields wins it for me.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Yes looks like an absolutely top winter!

    😡😡😡😡😡
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    Interesting More or Less yesterday.

    Downstream energy companies aren't the ones making the big profits so to tax them wouldn't achieve what many people think it would achieve. It's the upstream producers who are making the money and let the UK govt try and find/tax them.

    Interestingly, before the upcoming cap increase, "policy taxes" (of which green taxes are the largest component) account for 8% of a "typical" bill (moving to 4% after the cap rise). So the idea of abolishing them is not trivial at all.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Yes looks like an absolutely top winter!

    😡😡😡😡😡
    Beyond grim

    Still, at least in the UK winter only lasts 8 months
  • Options

    Interesting betting opportunity - Therese Coffey for next PM? She's very likely to be Truss's DPM, and if Truss implodes as badly as speculated, I can see the 1922 requesting she goes immediately at the start of a challenge with Coffey acting as a caretaker until a new leader is elected.

    It sort of makes sense as I dont get the impression Coffey would be disloyal..... I personally think it will be Cabinet of some paranoia given the last 6 years of Cons leadership...
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,909
    Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.


  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,207
    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
  • Options
    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    A lot of those electrical items would have been much more expensive only a decade or so ago. One of the big regulatory successes since the millennium has been the drive to more energy efficient electrical appliances. Some progress on gas boilers and system insulation, but the big wins weren't really available there to the same degree.

    Hopefully this winter will give pause to the golf club bore tendency who bemoan low energy vacuum cleaners and long for the return of incandescent bulbs.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    boulay said:

    Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.


    Amazing what these new AI platforms can do if you give them the right prompts.
  • Options
    boulay said:

    Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.


    Cold War Steve has a version of this - I have a print of it in my home office.
  • Options
    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,909

    boulay said:

    Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.


    Cold War Steve has a version of this - I have a print of it in my home office.
    Unfortunately it’s the Whigs celebrating victory with Tories protesting but I’m sure it portrays an accurate scene.
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,183

    I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

    Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    40 Rishi Sunak

    Next Conservative leader
    1.01 Liz Truss 99%
    50 Rishi Sunak

    Hope all goes well.
  • Options

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Induction hobs use a lot, but can cook very quickly. Maybe 3 or 4 kwh at top?

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,598
    edited September 2022
    There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

    #France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,257
    edited September 2022

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
  • Options

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    I can see why they're doing cost per hour, but yes- it's a bit misleading because you use things for different amounts of time. Bottom line is you have to get a certain amount of energy into the food to cook it, and the only question is how much energy overspills. (And if that ends up heating a room you want to heat anyway, it's not the end of the world.)

    There was a Punt and Dennis routine based on a "How to save energy" homework they claimed to have uncovered, with things like "Eat bread instead of toast- it's been baked already, you don't need to cook it again."

    May need to dig that out to get information to survive the next few months.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

    #France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

    I think it's a bit closer to our word Hawkish.
  • Options

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    The only problem being when half of your pans don't work on the induction hob due to being made of the wrong materials.
  • Options

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    But also, it was consistent with a narrative the Telegraph have wanted to tell for a while. Meanwhile (1) I wonder how many real businesses with take the approach TSE's lot are doing and (2) I should get on with actual WFH, or JRM will send the homeworkercatcher out to get me.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

    #France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

    I think it's a bit closer to our word Hawkish.
    I think it's a bit stronger than that. Jingoistic would perhaps be a more neutral translation.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

    If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
  • Options

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    The only problem being when half of your pans don't work on the induction hob due to being made of the wrong materials.
    Probably makes it less efficient, but they thought of that

    https://www.procook.co.uk/product/procook-induction-hob-converter-19cm
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

    If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
    Booring
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
    Eh?

    The airfryer is excellent for pizza.
  • Options

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    People seem to be losing faith in Sunak's ability to turn this around, now 70-1 next Tory leader.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
    Eh?

    The airfryer is excellent for pizza.
    Pizzas should be deep fried, anyway.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    You're going to hate it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
  • Options
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    We got a new oven last year, which is allegedly much more efficient than the near twenty-year old one it replaced. And I guess much of the efficiency comes from insulation, as the walls of the oven are noticeably thicker, and the interior cooking space much smaller (for an oven of the same exterior dimensions).
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
    Eh?

    The airfryer is excellent for pizza.
    Pizzas should be deep fried, anyway.
    As should Mars Bars....
  • Options
    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    geoffw said:

    The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.

    My electricity bill is higher than my gas right now. 2.2k kwh ytd electricity, 8.8 kwh gas.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We have a combined air fryer / toaster oven, and it is dramatically more energy efficient than a traditional oven - not to mention much quicker.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
    Surely for that you are using a garden pizza oven with hickory block wood charcoal??

  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,909
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

    The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

    Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

    We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

    There’s a certain dark comedy in the fact that the last two years people were upset that they couldn’t go out to pubs etc in the lead up to Christmas because of lockdown but probably thought,” well at least December 2022 we will be able to go out and celebrate again”.

    Cue 2022 and it’s going to be worse than lockdown potentially - not only with the pubs closed but when you are at home you will be gathered round the candles listening to
    Radio 4 long wave on a battery powered transistor for entertainment.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    It's certainly more efficient in terms of energy use, and I much prefer cooking with gas. But installing a gas hob into my rented kitchen might not compare favourably to the better electric option in efficient use of my limited financial means.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    geoffw said:

    The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.

    True - but according to British Gas, average electricity bills and gas bills are very similar. I.e., £1,700 vs £1,900. Albeit this is probably before the upcoming rises.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    eek said:

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
    Number 3: money, obviously!
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited September 2022
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

    Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    eek said:

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
    The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

    If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

    And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.
  • Options
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

    I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

    It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand
    We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.
    Eh?

    The airfryer is excellent for pizza.
    Pizzas should be deep fried, anyway.
    As should Mars Bars....
    I've never had one of these delicacies but a deep fried pizza is something everyone should try at least once. The first few bites are absolutely heavenly, but by the time you are half way through you start to feel overcome by self loathing and by the end you are ready to slip into a food induced coma. Still, if you like fried food and you like pizza then really, what is there not to like?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

    If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
    Booring
    *sips cocktail pensively*

    *dives in pool*
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    Albeit in both cases, if you are also heating your house, then it will reduce the need for your boiler to run.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    If you have a tiny flat, the space afforded by an induction hob is really worth it. Can chuck my various ingredients/utensils on the parts I'm not using. Also 100x easier to clean.

    I also think the oven being more efficient than the hob isn't right if you live by yourself and aren't doing two casserole dishes per run or something.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.
  • Options
    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

    Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
    Risotto in the microwave is dead easy and quick.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

    The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

    Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

    We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

    Can I ask what you have done to cut back, and why you didn't before?

    We've always done as much as we can to keep energy use low - low energy bulbs, lights off unless in a room, minimally filled kettles etc
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Top tip: use a bitcoin miner as an electric heater for your home.
  • Options
    boulay said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

    The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

    Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

    We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

    There’s a certain dark comedy in the fact that the last two years people were upset that they couldn’t go out to pubs etc in the lead up to Christmas because of lockdown but probably thought,” well at least December 2022 we will be able to go out and celebrate again”.

    Cue 2022 and it’s going to be worse than lockdown potentially - not only with the pubs closed but when you are at home you will be gathered round the candles listening to
    Radio 4 long wave on a battery powered transistor for entertainment.
    The 6 o'clock news will be read by a man in a tricorn hat ringing a bell in the town centre...
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    On home energy usage, here's a tip if you have smart meters installed.
    You can download your ½ hourly usage for a 90-day period as a csv file from https://data.n3rgy.com/consumer/home after you've signed up to use their portal.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

    If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
    Booring
    *sips cocktail pensively*

    *dives in pool*
    Are we sure he's not actually in Neasden, and using his vivid imagination?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

    #France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

    Which is why the EU, run by France and Germany, shouldn’t be allowed a power grab on energy policy.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.
    Why would you bother with carbon capture from the tiny amount of energy used by a hob (or even a domestic boiler)... That would be a very high cost minimal benefit project..
  • Options
    Put the lid on the pan to reduce energy consumption when cooking on the hob.

    And don't boil one egg, discard the hot water, then decide you want another egg!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
    The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

    If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

    And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.
    What are Russian exports, other than O&G, vodka and a few Ladas?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.
    Sure you can: make sure that your kitchen has good natural light, is properly air sealed, and fill it with plants. When the plants eventually die, you will need to bury them somewhere deep, and where they will be starved of oxygen. In this way, you will be making the natural gas properly renewable.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

    Given that opponents have already whined about wasted PPE, wasted loans, wasted test & trace, and wasted vaccine spending that is for certain. I have absolutely no respect for people who screech about "something must be done right now" usually with the qualifier of "spend whatever it takes" who then turn around and complain that what was done was wasteful. Of course it was wasteful you complete spanners, it was wasteful in the same way that a firefighter wastes water when trying to put out a raging fire. It was still the right thing to do.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    rcs1000 said:

    Top tip: use a bitcoin miner as an electric heater for your home.

    There was a commercial product to that effect at one point.

    Plug this black box into your home and network and we will run stuff on it you can't see to generate heat...
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,183


    Get me some weekend-away money please Liz.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
    The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

    If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

    And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.
    What are Russian exports, other than O&G, vodka and a few Ladas?
    Coal.

    And they used to sell some military kit.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

    Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
    Risotto in the microwave is dead easy and quick.
    What kind of witchcraft is this? Risotto isn't meant to be quick. It's meant to be a labour of love.
  • Options

    Put the lid on the pan to reduce energy consumption when cooking on the hob.

    And don't boil one egg, discard the hot water, then decide you want another egg!

    When it gets cold don't discard any hot water - transfer it to hot water bottles
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Ah, innumerate journalists again. What a surprise.

    For the vast majority of people, WFH over the winter will save money compared to commuting.

    We still have the problem that, no matter what, demand has to reduce by 15-20% over the winter. Shutting down offices where possible, will make a difference.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

    Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
    Risotto in the microwave is dead easy and quick.
    What kind of witchcraft is this? Risotto isn't meant to be quick. It's meant to be a labour of love.
    One ladlefull at a time aiui.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    edited September 2022
    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    On those figures the sensible option is to get an electric blanket, go to bed at the end of September and don't get up till April. 48p a day.



  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Sandpit said:

    There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

    #France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

    https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

    Which is why the EU, run by France and Germany, shouldn’t be allowed a power grab on energy policy.
    I'd be much more worried about the Italians and the Hungarians than the French and the Germans.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

    Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly
    Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

    With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.
    But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.
    It appears we cannot retrofit CC&S onto massive gas power plants, either. ;)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    I'm arriving in Central London from Gatwick on Thameslink, and it's amazing how great the South Bank is looking these days.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Christ


    “Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

    Think I really will eff off to bangers

    Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.
    Talking of which;

    A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

    The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

    Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.


    https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/
    Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

    The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

    So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.
    Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

    If only all of us could be so “unscientific”
    Booring
    *sips cocktail pensively*

    *dives in pool*
    Are we sure he's not actually in Neasden, and using his vivid imagination?
    I'm getting concerned about the food miles flying Leon all this way for breakfast.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

    The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

    Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

    We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

    Ah, enjoy the Mason's Arms - are the damsons ready yet?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    On those figures the sensible option is to get an electric blanket, go to bed at the end of September and don't get up till April. 48p a day.



    Then you can have a really good shit in the woods.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    A disturbing article - which is just what we need, right? - on the potency of new forms of cannabis


    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-weed-became-new-oxycontin-marijuana-psychosis-addiction

    "At that level of potency, the impact of the drug on a user’s brain belongs to an entirely different category of risk than smoking a joint or taking a bong rip of even an intensively bred marijuana flower. It’s highly addictive, and over time, there’s a significant chance it can drive you insane."
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

    Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

    In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

    That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

    But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...
    That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...
    You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.
    Let's look at the options

    Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
    Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
    Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on
    The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

    If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

    And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.
    What are Russian exports, other than O&G, vodka and a few Ladas?
    Coal.

    And they used to sell some military kit.
    Ah yes LOL, they *used* to sell military kit.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect
    Usages costs at 52p per kwh

    I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.
    Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

    Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.
    You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

    Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.
    Risotto in the microwave is dead easy and quick.
    What kind of witchcraft is this? Risotto isn't meant to be quick. It's meant to be a labour of love.
    Risotto in the microwave has two huge advantages - it's quick so I can cook a healthy and tasty family meal from scratch in 40 minutes after getting home from work. But more importantly, it really triggers precious foodie types.
This discussion has been closed.