Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result – politicalbetting.com

I think I'd probably be on the other side of this bet, albeit with not a great deal of confidence: I'd go with 68-32 as my final score.

The Betfair market on vote share became illiquid a day or two back, presumably due to inside information, although possibly fear of inside information!

The market in the header is one I should avoid as it involves guessing when votes were cast. Was it while Truss was flying high or not?

ETA and one can't help reflecting that Rishi seemed to do better with groups who had met him or watched the hustings.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

Betfair next prime minister
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
40 Rishi Sunak

Next Conservative leader
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
50 Rishi Sunak

Good luck in the hozzie

There are people with insider knowledge on this bet.

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Expectations management so Truss can be hailed as a success when things are slightly less shit than that.

Interesting betting opportunity - Therese Coffey for next PM? She's very likely to be Truss's DPM, and if Truss implodes as badly as speculated, I can see the 1922 requesting she goes immediately at the start of a challenge with Coffey acting as a caretaker until a new leader is elected.

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Yes looks like an absolutely top winter!

😡😡😡😡😡

londonpubman said:

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Yes looks like an absolutely top winter!

😡😡😡😡😡

Beyond grim

Still, at least in the UK winter only lasts 8 months

Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

boulay said:

Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.

Cold War Steve has a version of this - I have a print of it in my home office.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

boulay said:

Photo of Boris’ last cabinet meeting just released.

Cold War Steve has a version of this - I have a print of it in my home office.

Unfortunately it’s the Whigs celebrating victory with Tories protesting but I’m sure it portrays an accurate scene.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

I'm off to hospital for a prod and a probe; luckily there is not much on today but I shall miss the point at which Rishi Sunak is backed off the boards. Or Liz Truss.

Rishi is not very liquid; the price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal.

Betfair next prime minister
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
40 Rishi Sunak

Next Conservative leader
1.01 Liz Truss 99%
50 Rishi Sunak

Hope all goes well.

There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

#France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

I can see why they're doing cost per hour, but yes- it's a bit misleading because you use things for different amounts of time. Bottom line is you have to get a certain amount of energy into the food to cook it, and the only question is how much energy overspills. (And if that ends up heating a room you want to heat anyway, it's not the end of the world.)

There was a Punt and Dennis routine based on a "How to save energy" homework they claimed to have uncovered, with things like "Eat bread instead of toast- it's been baked already, you don't need to cook it again."

May need to dig that out to get information to survive the next few months.

BlancheLivermore said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

The only problem being when half of your pans don't work on the induction hob due to being made of the wrong materials.

TimS said:

CarlottaVance said:

There is some dispute whether the English translation of “war mongering” is as perjorative a term as the French original:

#France's President Macron says the #EU's policy over #Ukraine must not follow the policy of "the most war-mongering types" (i.e. the Baltics, Poland), since this would "risk extending the conflict and closing off communications [with #Putin] completely". What a disgrace.

https://twitter.com/kyleworton/status/1566575126514106369

I think it's a bit closer to our word Hawkish.

I think it's a bit stronger than that. Jingoistic would perhaps be a more neutral translation.

The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand

We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.

Leon said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.

Talking of which;

A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.

https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/

Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.

Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

If only all of us could be so “unscientific”

Booring

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

People seem to be losing faith in Sunak's ability to turn this around, now 70-1 next Tory leader.

BlancheLivermore said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

paulyork64 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand

We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.

Eh?

The airfryer is excellent for pizza.

Pizzas should be deep fried, anyway.

As should Mars Bars....

geoffw said:

The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.

My electricity bill is higher than my gas right now. 2.2k kwh ytd electricity, 8.8 kwh gas.

paulyork64 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand

We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.

Surely for that you are using a garden pizza oven with hickory block wood charcoal??

JosiasJessop said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...

You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.

Let's look at the options

Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on

geoffw said:

The breakdown of electric energy costs by appliance is all very well but by far the largest component of energy use and cost is space heating, which is mainly gas nowadays.

True - but according to British Gas, average electricity bills and gas bills are very similar. I.e., £1,700 vs £1,900. Albeit this is probably before the upcoming rises.

Selebian said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.

You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.

eek said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

paulyork64 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

There is a big move to air fryers which effectively makes a conventional cooker redundant and are very energy savings

I have just acquired a dual basket air fryer and am unlikely to use the cooker again

It seems the most popular Ninja air fryer is in very high demand

We're looking at air fryers and possibly a pressure cooker. They only thing they dont seem to be able to replace the oven for is a pizza.

Eh?

The airfryer is excellent for pizza.

Pizzas should be deep fried, anyway.

As should Mars Bars....

I've never had one of these delicacies but a deep fried pizza is something everyone should try at least once. The first few bites are absolutely heavenly, but by the time you are half way through you start to feel overcome by self loathing and by the end you are ready to slip into a food induced coma. Still, if you like fried food and you like pizza then really, what is there not to like?

Selebian said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.

Albeit in both cases, if you are also heating your house, then it will reduce the need for your boiler to run.

rcs1000 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.

But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.

Cyclefree said:

Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

Can I ask what you have done to cut back, and why you didn't before?

We've always done as much as we can to keep energy use low - low energy bulbs, lights off unless in a room, minimally filled kettles etc

boulay said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway in a last hurrah before The Arrival of Dystopia, we are off - en famille + Significant Other - to a very nice pub at Strawberry Bank, overlooking Windermere, after a walk up Gummer's How, to celebrate Daughter's birthday.

The weather is warm and clear so a perfect day for it. And best use our pubs before they all close down.

Tomorrow our electricity is being cut off (just for one day) while they make a new connection so I can finally start work on my potager. Plus the ash tree - which sadly has die-back - can be cut down and that will keep us warm for a while.

We have already started cutting back on energy use. The only sensible thing to do, whatever government announces.

There’s a certain dark comedy in the fact that the last two years people were upset that they couldn’t go out to pubs etc in the lead up to Christmas because of lockdown but probably thought,” well at least December 2022 we will be able to go out and celebrate again”.

Cue 2022 and it’s going to be worse than lockdown potentially - not only with the pubs closed but when you are at home you will be gathered round the candles listening to
Radio 4 long wave on a battery powered transistor for entertainment.

The 6 o'clock news will be read by a man in a tricorn hat ringing a bell in the town centre...

Leon said:

MikeSmithson said:

Leon said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.

Talking of which;

A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.

https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/

Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.

Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

If only all of us could be so “unscientific”

Booring

*sips cocktail pensively*

*dives in pool*

Are we sure he's not actually in Neasden, and using his vivid imagination?

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.

But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.

Why would you bother with carbon capture from the tiny amount of energy used by a hob (or even a domestic boiler)... That would be a very high cost minimal benefit project..

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...

You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.

Let's look at the options

Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on

The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.

What are Russian exports, other than O&G, vodka and a few Ladas?

JosiasJessop said:

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

Given that opponents have already whined about wasted PPE, wasted loans, wasted test & trace, and wasted vaccine spending that is for certain. I have absolutely no respect for people who screech about "something must be done right now" usually with the qualifier of "spend whatever it takes" who then turn around and complain that what was done was wasteful. Of course it was wasteful you complete spanners, it was wasteful in the same way that a firefighter wastes water when trying to put out a raging fire. It was still the right thing to do.

Get me some weekend-away money please Liz.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

ping said:

Selebian said:

paulyork64 said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

I'm surprised the oven uses less energy per hour than a hob ring. I guess things usually take longer in the oven tho. But if you can fill it with meals you can microwave later that could make savings.

Oven pretty low energy draw once it's up to temperature, I should think (which takes, what, 10 minutes or so?). At that point the thermostat cycles the element on and off as needed, so there are quite some periods when the energy draw is near zero. We've got a new oven in last few weeks as part of kitchen/extension work and it really is almost cool to touch even in use - as with everything else I guess the insulation has got much better. Of course, the thing being cooked is an energy sink too.

Traditional hob is losing energy to the air (or to the pan which loses it to the air) all the time. Induction similar, although without the direct hob to air energy transfer.

You can transfer a lot of stuff done on the hob to a microwave with little effort.

Eg, you can perfectly adequately steam/boil veg/rice with the correct tool. Much more energy efficient.

Risotto in the microwave is dead easy and quick.

What kind of witchcraft is this? Risotto isn't meant to be quick. It's meant to be a labour of love.

Stuartinromford said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.

Talking of which;

A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.

https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/

Ah, innumerate journalists again. What a surprise.

For the vast majority of people, WFH over the winter will save money compared to commuting.

We still have the problem that, no matter what, demand has to reduce by 15-20% over the winter. Shutting down offices where possible, will make a difference.

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

On those figures the sensible option is to get an electric blanket, go to bed at the end of September and don't get up till April. 48p a day.

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

BlancheLivermore said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

As I just said on the end of the dead thread..

Induction hobs are really efficient; quite high wattage, but they work so quickly

Of course, it's probably more efficient to burn gas directly to warm up your food, rather than burning gas to power a turbine, to generate electricity, to transport it to your house, and then you to use the electricity to generate heat.

With the gas hob, 90% of the heat content of the gas makes it into the food. I doubt it's more than 30-35% with the electric option.

But you can't retrofit carbon capture and storage onto everyone's hobs. So either electric or hydrogen it has to be.

It appears we cannot retrofit CC&S onto massive gas power plants, either.

OldKingCole said:

Leon said:

MikeSmithson said:

Leon said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Christ


“Life in Blackout Britain: Experts warn energy rationing this winter could see people told not to cook until after 8pm, pubs close at 9pm, 'three-day-a-week' school, care homes cancel outings for residents and swimming pools left unheated”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11173211/Life-Blackout-Britain-Experts-warn-energy-rationing-winter.html

Think I really will eff off to bangers

Well, its not for the first time that you seem to need to change your undies about some Daily Mail madeuppery... Just remember that like all writers/journalists, 90% of the time they don´t know what the f&%& they are talking about and are just looking for a story tag.

Talking of which;

A front-page article in the Telegraph earlier this week incorrectly used new analysis to claim that working from home will add more than £2,500 a year to energy bills, and said this meant commuters would be likely to save £1,500 by going out to work instead of staying at home.

The Telegraph appears to have multiplied by 12 the expected energy savings in January 2023, as estimated by the price comparison website Uswitch. This calculation is flawed because energy usage is much higher in January than in an average month.

Uswitch’s estimate may also not be reliable, for instance because it makes assumptions about the way that people use their heating that are different from official data on the subject.

https://fullfact.org/economy/telegraph-working-from-home-energy-costs/

Journalist + Numerical Data == Bullshit.

The typical Journalist has the scientific training of @Leon

So, it is all yada, yada, yada, aliens are coming, yada, yada, yada, AI is coming, yada, yada, yada, the End of Times is coming.

Yes he’s so dumb that right now he’s being paid to sit by a pool in Portugal, or so I hear. Just down the coast from me

If only all of us could be so “unscientific”

Booring

*sips cocktail pensively*

*dives in pool*

Are we sure he's not actually in Neasden, and using his vivid imagination?

I'm getting concerned about the food miles flying Leon all this way for breakfast.

algarkirk said:

eek said:

This is a rough(ish) guide to energy costs assuming the October prices take effect

On those figures the sensible option is to get an electric blanket, go to bed at the end of September and don't get up till April. 48p a day.

Then you can have a really good shit in the woods.

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

So what is the energy policy going to be? Any good?

Many people who dislike the government will say it's terrible and won't work before it's even announced. Many people who support the government (one man and his dog atm) will say it's genius and much better than Stinky Starmer's messy policy. Journalists will say their opinions on it before they say what it is.

In my inexpert view, whether any policy works depends on how long the crisis is expected to last for. If it is only going to be a short, sharp shock over this winter, then the best policy might be very different than if the crisis is expected to last into 2024 or beyond.

That's the massive question. And I've no idea what the answer is.

But I'll give a prediction; if the government spends masses of money supporting energy prices and consumers at the moment, and then gas prices go down for some reason before / during winter (hence the worst of the crisis is averted), then opponents will conveniently forget what they're saying now, and talk about how they've wasted money...

That's a pointless prediction because I really don't see anyway supply for gas will match European needs until 2025 at the earliest...

You might be correct, but there's certainly a chance that the crisis will not be as deep or as existential as is being made out at the moment. And I hope it isn't.

Let's look at the options

Delivery from elsewhere - requires new ships and the shipyards are at capacity
Reduced demand - factored in, only impacts the edges
Russia - even if Ukraine win / loses the war what incentive does Russia have to turn the taps fully back on

The longer Russia takes to turn the gas taps back on, the more its role as supplier will be supplanted by others.

If the main effect of the Ukraine war is to spur the development of reserves in Mozambique, Australia, Israel, etc., it can be nothing other than extremely negative for Russia's energy industry.

And bear in mind that Russia doesn't have many industries.

What are Russian exports, other than O&G, vodka and a few Ladas?

Coal.

And they used to sell some military kit.

Ah yes LOL, they *used* to sell military kit.