politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the nex
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Ha!
Will the mansion tax apply in Scotland...?0 -
Quite something that she didn't know thatNeil said:
Part of me thinks that these trivia questions (like price of a pint of milk) are completely pointless. But for the Shadow SoS for Work and Pensions to not know the single most important benefit rate is quite something. Can we be sure she knows the pros and cons of abolishing the BSP? McClymont (Shadow Pension Minister) on the other hand knows his stuff.CarlottaVance said:Ouch! The DP has just played the LBC Rachel Reeve car crash on the basic state pension 'its around £100'....'Its £113'.......so much for 'out of touch Tories.....'
How can you have a job when you are not interested in the basics?0 -
Was that when they used to win?TheScreamingEagles said:
I was a child of the 80s, There were about 10 club matches shown on TV per season, and 9 of those featured LiverpoolLennon said:Who supports Liverpool... even more confused.
(Says the Spurs fan...)0 -
Obviously none of us know what is precisely going to happen. However my own view is that the Tories will add about 4% to their vote share taking them to about 37% mainly from returning soft UKIPers worried about high Labour taxes even if in reality most won't be affected by them . It's the perception that counts. Disillusioned Labour defectors to UKIP will not return nor will hardline ex-Tory Ukipers. This will leave Labour still with 35% of the vote.bigjohnowls said:
Not convinced no.TCPoliticalBetting said:
BJO, you seem convinced that Labour will not slip back from 35 when the campaign gets underway. Is that what has happened in the past to the opposition's support?bigjohnowls said:
True but of course 35/35 results in Ed as PM.chestnut said:
Indeed.bigjohnowls said:
In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015
YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3
September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)
However, when Labour were on 38 the chances of the Tories being able to scale up to that were virtually non existent, and the scope to cope with a bit of slippage was significant for Labour.
Labour are now regularly on 35. The Tories can conceivably poll that and a little bit beyond, while Labour's buffer against slippage is much thinner now.
The risk to Labour is greater with a three point lead of 35-32 than it was with 38-35.
Tories need at least 37 for even a minority Govt. IMO
I think LAB probably needs a minimum of 34% to have any chance of a slim maj.
At 32% could still be most seats but for Ed to be minority PM about 33%
Could be very tight and nearly all my betting on GE2015 market are on LAB most seats with tiny amount on LAB maJ.0 -
@JGForsyth: One thing is for sure, after this Miliband speech won’t be hard for the Tories to raise the money they need for the election campaign0
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That a cut in taxes from 50% to 45% didn't negatively impact tax take?BenM said:Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.
Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.
Kind of proves his point.
(The most rigourous analysis I've seen suggested the optimal tax rate was slightly over 45% - with NICs this is why we have a 47% rate)0 -
Caroline Flint just described Margaret Thatcher as one of our "most successful Prime Ministers" on DP.0
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Dont be silly. We have a 47% rate because George wanted a 42% one but Cameron thought that would be too unpopular and they settled on 47%. Noone read a paper on optimal tax rates before it was chosen.Charles said:
(The most rigourous analysis I've seen suggested the optimal tax rate was slightly over 45% - with NICs this is why we have a 47% rate)
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The mansion tax will NOT apply to Scotland!!
AWESOME!0 -
Carolyn Flint not having much fun on the DP - 'How much will the mansion tax raise?'
A bit over a billion...1.5 to 2 billion.....and downhill from there.....
Will the English only mansion tax be voted on by Scottish MPs....?0 -
Scottish MPs will vote on a mansion tax for England...
Nice one Ed.0 -
I think an important implication of UKIP winning Heywood could be on the TV debates. With two elected MPs as well as winning the Euros etc. they would be so much harder to exclude.0
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Not following TSE in as my mind is clouded by feelings of which" would I like first to put up against the proverbial wall?" and can only answer,all of them,equally.I fear as a result any tissue or overrounding will lead to a substantial donation to PP.
I'm out on this one but keep the little grey cells ticking.You only need a double priced loser 9 times.I don't back under 10-1 any more.It's just not profitable in the long-term.0 -
An academic study I've seen suggests Laffer, if it exists, kicks in at over 70%.Charles said:
That a cut in taxes from 50% to 45% didn't negatively impact tax take?BenM said:Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.
Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.
Kind of proves his point.
(The most rigourous analysis I've seen suggested the optimal tax rate was slightly over 45% - with NICs this is why we have a 47% rate)0 -
Should mean a boost for Scottish high end property though - of course the revenue from the stamp duty sales will go to Westminster to spend on HS2 etc..
What larks !0 -
If Miliband's proposing to oppose English votes for English laws and then have his Scottish MPs vote for a tax in England which wouldn't apply in Scotland Cameron may as well cancel his conference and just show a replay of Miliband's.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Neil, that is a fair point. The riposte is that Miliband's immediately providing* an example of a tax being imposed on England by Scottish MPs voting on a matter which won't affect them or their constituents.
A tax on homes today, but what tomorrow? A tax on jobs? Sales? Income?
Depends how much is devolved, but Miliband's working hard to set a precedent for democratically indefensible actions.
*If it's confirmed it would be for England only but would be voted for by Scottish MPs.0 -
Seriously? - if so, I think someone will make hay with that...Scott_P said:The mansion tax will NOT apply to Scotland!!
AWESOME!0 -
New Thread0
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Big change to the Heywood and Middleton odds on Betfair
Labour can be backed at 1.26
I'm trying to lay 1.13 grrr0 -
Iain Martin on how EVEL could work:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100287360/english-votes-for-english-laws-can-work-heres-how/0 -
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In which case Ben I'm sure you'll be willing to pay the extra tax.BenM said:
An academic study I've seen suggests Laffer, if it exists, kicks in at over 70%.Charles said:
That a cut in taxes from 50% to 45% didn't negatively impact tax take?BenM said:Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.
Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.
Kind of proves his point.
(The most rigourous analysis I've seen suggested the optimal tax rate was slightly over 45% - with NICs this is why we have a 47% rate)
Don't waste any more time on PB, here's a tax office near you:
HMRC
Northside House
69 Tweedy Road
Bromley
BR1 3TZ
Take your cheque book with you and they'll be happy to work out how much extra you need to pay them to bring your personal tax rate up to 70%.
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Tykejohnno said:
Money can be borrowed against the security of a £2m house to convert a person from asset rich/cash poor to less asset rich/cash rich..0
This discussion has been closed.