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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

In the summer, there were stories that Jo Swinson will replace Alistair Carmichael as Scottish Secretary following the independence referendum regardless of the result.  During the last weeks of the indyref campaign, there were stories that Carmichael would resign immediately in the event of a Yes, which pushed his price out to as low as 1/3 last week.

Read the full story here

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

1st?

GeoffM

Silver medal!

SimonStClare

wooden spoon : (

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

On thread. Why is it thought that he will be leaving the cabinet. Resignation or sacking?

Verulamius

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

TGOHF

Verulamius said:

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

No this is the big one - where he fills in the blank page - I've got an email from his wife to say please watch it - so they definitely aren't getting desperate.

TheScreamingEagles

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

On thread. Why is it thought that he will be leaving the cabinet. Resignation or sacking?

Resigning. He was brought in to slay the Nats and win the Indyref.

By making Jo Swinson Secretary of State for Scotland increases the chances she will hold her seat.

Verulamius

TGOHF said:

Verulamius said:

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

No this is the big one - where he fills in the blank page - I've got an email from his wife to say please watch it - so they definitely aren't getting desperate.

A 10 year plan to have a blank page?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Thanks TSE, did he have much to do with it? Don't recall him being mentioned much.

Innocent_Abroad

Verulamius said:

TGOHF said:

Verulamius said:

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

No this is the big one - where he fills in the blank page - I've got an email from his wife to say please watch it - so they definitely aren't getting desperate.

A 10 year plan to have a blank page?

A nought year plan. People don't like the shape of his face, and nowadays if you don't have conventional good looks the electorate in its wisdom considers you unfit to be PM. This is also Cameron's weakness, but to a smaller degree, and explains the Lib Dem bounce at the last election: Clegg has the right shape of face for voters who have better things to with their time than study policies...

CarlottaVance

On the morning of Ed's Big Speech - that narrowing gap on "who is to blame for the cuts" has widened again:

Coalition: 26 (-4)
Prev Lab govt: 35 (-)

And 13% of UKIP voters would vote to stay in the EU post a Cameron renegotiation (and 54% of total base, vs 25% who would still vote to leave,)

DavidL

Not sure about this. I am afraid that Jo Swinson is toast and giving her a higher profile position is going to make no difference. In fact I doubt there will be more than 1 Lib Dem south of Inverness and very possibly none at all.

The Scottish Secretary job had some sort of relevance and profile during the referendum but the decisions being made now are being made above its paygrade. It has been a part time post since devolution and I really cannot see the occupant playing a major role in determining the extent of devo max. Given that there are only a few months left I really don't see the point unless it gives Jo Swinson a better pension.

Barring illness and scandal I think it is very possible there will be no further changes before the GE.

Neil

If Clegg doesnt reshuffle Carmichael out he will have burnt his bridges with the political betting community. Quite a lot of us are on the "current Cabinet wont make it to the general election" market with Paddy too.

DavidL

I found this a remarkable article particularly this bit:

"By the time Rachel Reeves stood up to speak this afternoon, it was clear that a deliberate strategy of short, sweet and empty speeches was being pursued. To be fair to Reeves, hers was not ‘boring snoring’ in that it listed what she plans to do on welfare, and she did at least try to appear excited by how close Labour was to governing.

But she like every other Shadow Cabinet member has been told to stick to a strict limit. They have been given 700 words each. I understand that one of the reasons given for the limit was that Yvette Cooper spoke for far too long at last year’s conference, and the centre wanted more control."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-is-labours-shadow-cabinet-saying-so-little/

700 words? Not exactly a program for government is it? This is very bad thinking by Labour. It is clear that their brand is much stronger than their leader. The way to deal with that is, as much as possible, to pretend that he has a strong team around him buzzing with ideas about how to make this country better. If Ed does his usual guff today this, the last party conference before the election, is going to be a missed opportunity.

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

The Scottish Secretary job had some sort of relevance and profile during the referendum...

Carmichael himself might be the instigator of a change here. Now that the referendum is done and dusted he may simply not be that interested in shuffling paper around and waiting for other people to make the big decisions.

DavidL

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

The Scottish Secretary job had some sort of relevance and profile during the referendum...

Carmichael himself might be the instigator of a change here. Now that the referendum is done and dusted he may simply not be that interested in shuffling paper around and waiting for other people to make the big decisions.

And why should Jo Swinson be more interested? She would be better advised to spend her time in her constituency fighting for her political life, not in an office where no important decisions are going to be made.

Scott_P

@dizzy_thinks: Explained West Lothian Question in simple terms to someone not into politics. Response: "Really? Fuck that!" Definite vote winner.

Scott_P

@FraserNelson: If Labour doesn’t like the idea of a PM being unable to legislate for part of the country, it should not have introduced Scottish devolution

Scott_P

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

That struck me too - team Ed briefing, taking a leaf out of the Brown playbook?

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

SO outlined a much smarter strategy for Ed yesterday "Yes, I support EVEL, show me the details of how it works" then stand back and watch as Cameron wades through treacle......

Scott_P

CarlottaVance said:

SO outlined a much smarter strategy for Ed yesterday "Yes, I support EVEL, show me the details of how it works" then stand back and watch as Cameron wades through treacle......

Might have worked BEFORE refusing to answer the question 20 times

TheWatcher

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

That struck me too - team Ed briefing, taking a leaf out of the Brown playbook?

Talking of whom, Miliband failed to thank the man who stepped up to the plate in Scotland and made the speeches he was to frightened to give.

Yesterday, he mentioned everyone else involved in the Scotland debate, except Gordo.

rottenborough

Morning all,
All seems very unfair on Carmichael and on Moore (who he replaced). At the time the briefing was that Carmichael would be better in the cut-n-thrust of the indie campaign. But from down here in England at least, he was, at best, utterly invisible. Now he's actually won the vote, he's to be sacked. This smacks of tokenism.

foxinsoxuk

DavidL said:

I found this a remarkable article particularly this bit:

"By the time Rachel Reeves stood up to speak this afternoon, it was clear that a deliberate strategy of short, sweet and empty speeches was being pursued. To be fair to Reeves, hers was not ‘boring snoring’ in that it listed what she plans to do on welfare, and she did at least try to appear excited by how close Labour was to governing.

But she like every other Shadow Cabinet member has been told to stick to a strict limit. They have been given 700 words each. I understand that one of the reasons given for the limit was that Yvette Cooper spoke for far too long at last year’s conference, and the centre wanted more control."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-is-labours-shadow-cabinet-saying-so-little/

700 words? Not exactly a program for government is it? This is very bad thinking by Labour. It is clear that their brand is much stronger than their leader. The way to deal with that is, as much as possible, to pretend that he has a strong team around him buzzing with ideas about how to make this country better. If Ed does his usual guff today this, the last party conference before the election, is going to be a missed opportunity.

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

The Labour party speeches on BBC Parliament were noticeably lame. Ed Balls was hoping to set out a Kinnock/Militant moment, but visibly demotivated the troops.

It really did not look like a government in waiting at all. It is a great political cliche that Ed Has to make the speech of his life today, so undoubtably will be hailed as such. In reality there is more than one blank sheet of paper, there is a whole blank manifesto.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

SO outlined a much smarter strategy for Ed yesterday "Yes, I support EVEL, show me the details of how it works" then stand back and watch as Cameron wades through treacle......

Might have worked BEFORE refusing to answer the question 20 times

Yes - now it will be "WHY" have you changed your mind......

isam

Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

Socrates

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

rottenborough

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I found this a remarkable article particularly this bit:

"By the time Rachel Reeves stood up to speak this afternoon, it was clear that a deliberate strategy of short, sweet and empty speeches was being pursued. To be fair to Reeves, hers was not ‘boring snoring’ in that it listed what she plans to do on welfare, and she did at least try to appear excited by how close Labour was to governing.

But she like every other Shadow Cabinet member has been told to stick to a strict limit. They have been given 700 words each. I understand that one of the reasons given for the limit was that Yvette Cooper spoke for far too long at last year’s conference, and the centre wanted more control."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-is-labours-shadow-cabinet-saying-so-little/

700 words? Not exactly a program for government is it? This is very bad thinking by Labour. It is clear that their brand is much stronger than their leader. The way to deal with that is, as much as possible, to pretend that he has a strong team around him buzzing with ideas about how to make this country better. If Ed does his usual guff today this, the last party conference before the election, is going to be a missed opportunity.

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

The Labour party speeches on BBC Parliament were noticeably lame. Ed Balls was hoping to set out a Kinnock/Militant moment, but visibly demotivated the troops.

It really did not look like a government in waiting at all. It is a great political cliche that Ed Has to make the speech of his life today, so undoubtably will be hailed as such. In reality there is more than one blank sheet of paper, there is a whole blank manifesto.

Or is it a deliberate strategy of not giving the Tories any targets to shoot at?

CarlottaVance

TheWatcher said:

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

That struck me too - team Ed briefing, taking a leaf out of the Brown playbook?

Yesterday, he mentioned everyone else involved in the Scotland debate, except Gordo.

And one shadow minister deleted a reference to him in her delivered speech vs the pre-released copy.....this is clearly a deliberate (and deeply ungrateful) strategy....

Gadfly

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

TheWatcher

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I found this a remarkable article particularly this bit:

"By the time Rachel Reeves stood up to speak this afternoon, it was clear that a deliberate strategy of short, sweet and empty speeches was being pursued. To be fair to Reeves, hers was not ‘boring snoring’ in that it listed what she plans to do on welfare, and she did at least try to appear excited by how close Labour was to governing.

But she like every other Shadow Cabinet member has been told to stick to a strict limit. They have been given 700 words each. I understand that one of the reasons given for the limit was that Yvette Cooper spoke for far too long at last year’s conference, and the centre wanted more control."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-is-labours-shadow-cabinet-saying-so-little/

700 words? Not exactly a program for government is it? This is very bad thinking by Labour. It is clear that their brand is much stronger than their leader. The way to deal with that is, as much as possible, to pretend that he has a strong team around him buzzing with ideas about how to make this country better. If Ed does his usual guff today this, the last party conference before the election, is going to be a missed opportunity.

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

The Labour party speeches on BBC Parliament were noticeably lame. Ed Balls was hoping to set out a Kinnock/Militant moment, but visibly demotivated the troops.

It really did not look like a government in waiting at all. It is a great political cliche that Ed Has to make the speech of his life today, so undoubtably will be hailed as such. In reality there is more than one blank sheet of paper, there is a whole blank manifesto.

Or is it a deliberate strategy of not giving the Tories any targets to shoot at?

No policies, 8 months before an election is not a good strategy.

Easterross

Morning all and why would Carmichael be sacked. He was very effective and had an incredibly high profile throughout the IndyRef campaign. He was the main NO standard bearer in many debates and worked closely with his Tory and moderate Labour colleagues like Darling.

Jo Swinson has a baby, a husband who is an MP at the other end of the country and is expected by virtually no-one to hold her seat next year, barring a wholesale collapse of the SLAB vote and the LibDem vote suddenly holding up in ways we haven't seen since 2011. Remember the LibDems were almost wiped out on their former stronghold of East Dunbartonshire council.

Scott_P

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Innocent_Abroad

Socrates said:

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

To be a north London lefty is to be a political refugee.. from middle England!

foxinsoxuk

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

I found this a remarkable article particularly this bit:

"By the time Rachel Reeves stood up to speak this afternoon, it was clear that a deliberate strategy of short, sweet and empty speeches was being pursued. To be fair to Reeves, hers was not ‘boring snoring’ in that it listed what she plans to do on welfare, and she did at least try to appear excited by how close Labour was to governing.

But she like every other Shadow Cabinet member has been told to stick to a strict limit. They have been given 700 words each. I understand that one of the reasons given for the limit was that Yvette Cooper spoke for far too long at last year’s conference, and the centre wanted more control."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-is-labours-shadow-cabinet-saying-so-little/

700 words? Not exactly a program for government is it? This is very bad thinking by Labour. It is clear that their brand is much stronger than their leader. The way to deal with that is, as much as possible, to pretend that he has a strong team around him buzzing with ideas about how to make this country better. If Ed does his usual guff today this, the last party conference before the election, is going to be a missed opportunity.

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

The Labour party speeches on BBC Parliament were noticeably lame. Ed Balls was hoping to set out a Kinnock/Militant moment, but visibly demotivated the troops.

It really did not look like a government in waiting at all. It is a great political cliche that Ed Has to make the speech of his life today, so undoubtably will be hailed as such. In reality there is more than one blank sheet of paper, there is a whole blank manifesto.

Or is it a deliberate strategy of not giving the Tories any targets to shoot at?

Andy Burnham has a quite sensible strategy to build on the NHS reforms, with more local political accountability (English devolution in some ways) but seems to be regarded by Miliband as a threat rather than an asset. Other than that there seems a void apart from some gimmicky new taxes.

Incidentally I think the 50% tax band and Mansion tax will go down particularly badly with well paid newspaper columnists and Labour luvvie celebs. Few will overtly oppose these, but they will get their revenge on Ed in other ways.

Ed has set up the Labour party with Tottenhams strike force, Man Uniteds defence and Fulhams recent management!

___Bobajob___

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

MikeK

Good Morning.
Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 16h
Tell @Ed_Miliband that you support a Voice for England. Sign and share this petition: http://www.voiceforengland.com/

___Bobajob___

Scott_P said:

@dizzy_thinks: Explained West Lothian Question in simple terms to someone not into politics. Response: "Really? Fuck that!" Definite vote winner.

You reckon? We'll see..... ;-)

___Bobajob___

Looking forward to the PB Tories deeming Ed's speech and the entire Labour conference a disaster later today.

foxinsoxuk

___Bobajob___ said:

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

You may have not noticed that this is not a tory government, but rather a coalition one. After the AV referendum, HoL reform and boundaries debacle, I think no-one wanted to get further bogged down with constitutional changes. Scotland voting Unionist does now put that on the agenda at last.

rottenborough

Easterross said:

Morning all and why would Carmichael be sacked. He was very effective and had an incredibly high profile throughout the IndyRef campaign. He was the main NO standard bearer in many debates and worked closely with his Tory and moderate Labour colleagues like Darling.

Jo Swinson has a baby, a husband who is an MP at the other end of the country and is expected by virtually no-one to hold her seat next year, barring a wholesale collapse of the SLAB vote and the LibDem vote suddenly holding up in ways we haven't seen since 2011. Remember the LibDems were almost wiped out on their former stronghold of East Dunbartonshire council.

Ok, sounds like I have been unfair on Carmichael by saying he was invisible. Even more reason not to sack him, for no good reason.

CarlottaVance

Ben Page from IPSOS Mori:

Was wondering why our packed fringe had lots of qs from London - now I know: acc to @GuideToPolitics 48% of Lab members fr Lon! #Lab14

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

foxinsoxuk

TheWatcher said:

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

And note the dig at Yvette. Bet the journalist did not come up with that himself.

That struck me too - team Ed briefing, taking a leaf out of the Brown playbook?

Talking of whom, Miliband failed to thank the man who stepped up to the plate in Scotland and made the speeches he was to frightened to give.

Yesterday, he mentioned everyone else involved in the Scotland debate, except Gordo.

Incidentally Shadsy has Gordon as 200/1 as next permanent Labour leader...

dr_spyn

Ed M wants to fix Britain, shades of Cameron's mend Broken Britain theme, trying to borrow his clothes. Wants a world class Britain, what does that mean?

Are we supposed to believe that 4 years of non Labour government has created more problems, than 13 years of Labour run Britain?

Posturing nonsense at best, delusional nonsense at worst.

Theuniondivvie

Does this mean Carmichael isn't going to be next LD leader?
Shocked and amazed doesn't begin to cover it.

___Bobajob___

foxinsoxuk said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

You may have not noticed that this is not a tory government, but rather a coalition one. After the AV referendum, HoL reform and boundaries debacle, I think no-one wanted to get further bogged down with constitutional changes. Scotland voting Unionist does now put that on the agenda at last.

The WLQ is as old as the hills. Anyone who thinks the Tories are introducing it for anything other than narrow partisan advantage because they fear defeat is utterly deluded.

chestnut

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

isam

Innocent_Abroad said:

Socrates said:

Hilarious article in the Guardian where the author tries to determine if he hates his Britishness or Englishness more:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/22/thanks-no-scotland-entrenched-little-england

To be a north London lefty is to be a political refugee.. from middle England!

Be careful when using the term "North London leftie" on here... Some people think it's is an anti Semitic slur (?!)

Says he is a manc in the article anyway... And his downbeat view of his Englishness might be something to do with his manic depression

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/exercise-depression-research-misses-point

Perhaps he was just having a particularly bad day

rottenborough

Front page of Express this am: UKIP to abolish IHT. The party certainly knows how to needle the average Tory activist!

CarlottaVance

Oops! R4 pointing out that currently 400,000 go to University while 520,000 go into apprenticeships....and Labour want to ensure "as many apprenticeships as Univerity entrants", I don't think Chuka is enjoying this.....now he's just been picked up on HS2....."so you're definitely committed to HS2?" Ah but yes but no but....

TheWatcher

___Bobajob___ said:

foxinsoxuk said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

You may have not noticed that this is not a tory government, but rather a coalition one. After the AV referendum, HoL reform and boundaries debacle, I think no-one wanted to get further bogged down with constitutional changes. Scotland voting Unionist does now put that on the agenda at last.

The WLQ is as old as the hills. Anyone who thinks the Tories are introducing it for anything other than narrow partisan advantage because they fear defeat is utterly deluded.

You must have been asleep for the last week. It's now weighing heavily on the English voter's mind - has Ed switched off your radar too? He's managing to line himself on the wrong side of the argument as well.

chestnut

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

Apologies, Lab 28, not 29.

Innocent_Abroad

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

There's little reason, other than tribalism, for any Scot, left- or right-leaning, not to vote SNP at the moment. Independence was voted down by pensioners and younger Scots have every right to feel cheated. Scottish independence is the only way to address all these constitutional confusions: we English need to start campaigning for it!

SquareRoot

___Bobajob___ said:

Looking forward to the PB Tories deeming Ed's speech and the entire Labour conference a disaster later today.

You been away bobajob. We did that last week, and the week before and the week before that !!
Listening to an Ed Miliband speech is something the Justice Dept could insist magistrates dole out as a cruel and unusual punishment.

Easterross

chestnut said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

Apologies, Lab 28, not 29.

Probably realistic. Over the past 4 days the SNP membership has almost doubled from 20,000+ to 40,000+. They are pointing out their membership now exceeds that of the LibDems and UKIP. The General Election is shaping up to be a bloodbath in SLAB held seats as the Nats are out for vengeance.

CarlottaVance

chestnut said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

Apologies, Lab 28, not 29.

It was 29:31 on Sunday - I wouldn't get over excited......

rottenborough

SquareRoot said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Looking forward to the PB Tories deeming Ed's speech and the entire Labour conference a disaster later today.

You been away bobajob. We did that last week, and the week before and the week before that !!
Listening to an Ed Miliband speech is something the Justice Dept could insist magistrates dole out as a cruel and unusual punishment.

No, no, you are wrong. This year's is the big one, this is the game-changer, this is the one where he reaches out from the hall and connects with Middle England, and...

Easterross

I doubt any of Scotland's 412,000 Tories plan to vote SNP next year. We Tories voted 98% NO last week and apart from our stronghold of the south of Scotland which led the NO vote, the biggest NO votes were in those areas where the SNP holds former Tory seats like Argyll, Moray, Perth and Angus. Will make the GE interesting.

Neil

Easterross said:

I doubt any of Scotland's 412,000 Tories plan to vote SNP next year. We Tories voted 98% NO last week and apart from our stronghold of the south of Scotland which led the NO vote, the biggest NO votes were in those areas where the SNP holds former Tory seats like Argyll, Moray, Perth and Angus. Will make the GE interesting.

tim couldnt be here so on his behalf I have to ask whether you're predicting a Tory surge?

isam

Revolt on the Right (@RevoltonRight)
23/09/2014 08:35
In Great Yarmouth, a key seat in 2015, Con cllr has defected to Ukip taking total no. of Ukip cllrs to 11 (Cons 13) m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…

Gadfly

___Bobajob___ said:

foxinsoxuk said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

You may have not noticed that this is not a tory government, but rather a coalition one. After the AV referendum, HoL reform and boundaries debacle, I think no-one wanted to get further bogged down with constitutional changes. Scotland voting Unionist does now put that on the agenda at last.

narrow partisan advantage.

Otherwise known as fairness ;-)

dr_spyn

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

SquareRoot

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

Gadfly

SquareRoot said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Looking forward to the PB Tories deeming Ed's speech and the entire Labour conference a disaster later today.

Listening to an Ed Miliband speech is something the Justice Dept could insist magistrates dole out as a cruel and unusual punishment.

I can imagine many of my 'customers' begging for unpaid work or custody when faced with that option ;-)

Sean_F

Innocent_Abroad said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

There's little reason, other than tribalism, for any Scot, left- or right-leaning, not to vote SNP at the moment. Independence was voted down by pensioners and younger Scots have every right to feel cheated. Scottish independence is the only way to address all these constitutional confusions: we English need to start campaigning for it!

No one was cheated. 55% of Scots voted to remain in the UK, on an 84% turnout.

SquareRoot

Ed the expert plumber

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2765893/Ed-expert-Why-I-wet-The-Labour-leader-answers-plumbing-questions-told-CRAIG-BROWN.html

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

The Scottish Secretary job had some sort of relevance and profile during the referendum...

Carmichael himself might be the instigator of a change here. Now that the referendum is done and dusted he may simply not be that interested in shuffling paper around and waiting for other people to make the big decisions.

And why should Jo Swinson be more interested? She would be better advised to spend her time in her constituency fighting for her political life, not in an office where no important decisions are going to be made.

Maybe she wouldn't - but the bet is on Carmichael leaving the job, not on who would replace him.

Sean_F

Easterross said:

chestnut said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

Apologies, Lab 28, not 29.

Probably realistic. Over the past 4 days the SNP membership has almost doubled from 20,000+ to 40,000+. They are pointing out their membership now exceeds that of the LibDems and UKIP. The General Election is shaping up to be a bloodbath in SLAB held seats as the Nats are out for vengeance.

Such is the distribution of Labour's vote in Scotland, that even if the SNP pulled level with them, they'd only lose four seats, on a uniform swing, and probably gain two from the Lib Dems.

But, given Glasgow's big vote for independence, it may be that there'll be an enormous swing to the SNP, in that city.

Gadfly

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

I have noticed a number of shops springing up dedicated to sale of these contraptions and presumably the required refills, which suggests that decent profits are being made.

I am guessing that they currently do not attract any tax and can therefore be sold with a high margin whilst remaining cheaper that the taxed alternatives.

Flightpath

Easterross said:

chestnut said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

Apologies, Lab 28, not 29.

Probably realistic. Over the past 4 days the SNP membership has almost doubled from 20,000+ to 40,000+. They are pointing out their membership now exceeds that of the LibDems and UKIP. The General Election is shaping up to be a bloodbath in SLAB held seats as the Nats are out for vengeance.

Two points -
1 - If there are going to be negotiations and votes on Scotland post 2015 election then would the Scots not want to have more MPs to vote for their case?
2 - Does not this in turn make English-only votes on English matters more logical than ever?
OK...
3 - Does (1) not make the SNP more socialist and make the tory vote more realistic?

PS
The motives for voting YES seem strange to me. In tv the other night a woman said she wanted to vote YES because there was more chance of staying in the EU. In other words being independent to her meant joining an ever closer union with the EU and joining the Euro and Schengen and obeying their fiscal and and monetary and spending rules. In other words not being independent at all.
Based on that logic you wonder what these new SNP members are thinking.

Innocent_Abroad

Sean_F said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

There's little reason, other than tribalism, for any Scot, left- or right-leaning, not to vote SNP at the moment. Independence was voted down by pensioners and younger Scots have every right to feel cheated. Scottish independence is the only way to address all these constitutional confusions: we English need to start campaigning for it!

No one was cheated. 55% of Scots voted to remain in the UK, on an 84% turnout.

I didn't say anyone was cheated. Try reading what I write, Sean. You might learn something.

SquareRoot

Gadfly said:

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

I have noticed a number of shops springing up dedicated to sale of these contraptions and presumably the required refills, which suggests that decent profits are being made.

I am guessing that they currently do not attract any tax and can therefore be sold with a high margin whilst remaining cheaper that the taxed alternatives.

I have a client who uses them, he says the e thingy replacement cartridges cost a tenner.or thereabouts and last about 10 days (I guess I depends on how much you use it.. ) There is a middle road somewhere between the cost of fags and these contraptions, the cost needs to be enough that it hurts so that people want to quit, at the moment the addiction is still there and at little cost.

Flightpath

dr_spyn said:

Ed M wants to fix Britain, shades of Cameron's mend Broken Britain theme, trying to borrow his clothes. Wants a world class Britain, what does that mean?

Are we supposed to believe that 4 years of non Labour government has created more problems, than 13 years of Labour run Britain?

Posturing nonsense at best, delusional nonsense at worst.

Correct. The trouble is he wants to 'fix' it with more socialism. Which as we already see means more tax and spend. And more McClusky. Still, as long as we do not get more Farage it will not happen.

Sean_F

Neil said:

Easterross said:

I doubt any of Scotland's 412,000 Tories plan to vote SNP next year. We Tories voted 98% NO last week and apart from our stronghold of the south of Scotland which led the NO vote, the biggest NO votes were in those areas where the SNP holds former Tory seats like Argyll, Moray, Perth and Angus. Will make the GE interesting.

tim couldnt be here so on his behalf I have to ask whether you're predicting a Tory surge?

Given the Lib Dems' collapse, the Tories must have a chance in Argyll, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire, but nowhere else.

isam

SquareRoot said:

Gadfly said:

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

I have noticed a number of shops springing up dedicated to sale of these contraptions and presumably the required refills, which suggests that decent profits are being made.

I am guessing that they currently do not attract any tax and can therefore be sold with a high margin whilst remaining cheaper that the taxed alternatives.

I have a client who uses them, he says the e thingy replacement cartridges cost a tenner.or thereabouts and last about 10 days (I guess I depends on how much you use it.. ) There is a middle road somewhere between the cost of fags and these contraptions, the cost needs to be enough that it hurts so that people want to quit, at the moment the addiction is still there and at little cost.

Giving up smoking isn't difficult if you really want to do it. People should use willpower, it's free and available whenever you wish to use it

Sean_F

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sean_F said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

chestnut said:

This morning's YouGov Scottish subsample;

SNP 40 , Labour 29.

That is a seismic change, and a total reversal of the norm from just six months ago and without any precedent that I recall within the Westminster VI polls.

Could be a one off and too small to read into, or it could be Labour's equivalent of the Lib Dems joining the coalition or Osborne's 2012 budget.

SNP picking up 3% of Labour's 2010 UK vote, and the same from the Lib Dems. That's over 250,000 LAB switchers, 200,000 LD switchers. Throw in 1% off the Tories and we're looking
at an extra half a million votes in Scotland.

SNP to top one million votes in 2015?

There's little reason, other than tribalism, for any Scot, left- or right-leaning, not to vote SNP at the moment. Independence was voted down by pensioners and younger Scots have every right to feel cheated. Scottish independence is the only way to address all these constitutional confusions: we English need to start campaigning for it!

No one was cheated. 55% of Scots voted to remain in the UK, on an 84% turnout.

I didn't say anyone was cheated. Try reading what I write, Sean. You might learn something.

I did.

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

It was 29:31 on Sunday - I wouldn't get over excited......

Indeed. It may be a one off, but it is so far beyond the boundary of the previously normal that it is worthy of keeping an eye on.

eek

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

Flightpath

foxinsoxuk said:

___Bobajob___ said:

Gadfly said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

"After days of the Labour leadership refusing to back the idea, Harriet Harman told LBC Radio: ‘We do have to recognise there’s an anomaly and look at different ways we can address that'."

No rush Hattie - You have only had 17 years to think about it so far.

Of course the Tories have had an entire parliament to enact it. Yet they have come to it just now ;-)

You may have not noticed that this is not a tory government, but rather a coalition one. After the AV referendum, HoL reform and boundaries debacle, I think no-one wanted to get further bogged down with constitutional changes. Scotland voting Unionist does now put that on the agenda at last.

Plus the SNP got a majority in 2011 and so since then we have effctively had a referendum campaign and so hardly the right circumstances. Now with more devolution it becomes not only desirable but inevitable. The point about Labour is they created the anomaly and were quite happy with it despite one of their own MPs pointing it out.

Gadfly

SquareRoot said:

Gadfly said:

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

I have noticed a number of shops springing up dedicated to sale of these contraptions and presumably the required refills, which suggests that decent profits are being made.

I am guessing that they currently do not attract any tax and can therefore be sold with a high margin whilst remaining cheaper that the taxed alternatives.

I have a client who uses them, he says the e thingy replacement cartridges cost a tenner.or thereabouts and last about 10 days (I guess I depends on how much you use it.. ) There is a middle road somewhere between the cost of fags and these contraptions, the cost needs to be enough that it hurts so that people want to quit, at the moment the addiction is still there and at little cost.

So £1 per day versus SquareRoot's former £250 per month.

It seems to me that there is a good argument for taxing these things, given that governments argue that tobacco tax is there to save you, not them.

I packed in 25 years ago thankfully.

Neil

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

Flightpath

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: Now Labour MPs are in open revolt over @Ed_Miliband’s refusal to back English votes for English laws #WeakEd
http://t.co/jYp8q0Pefm

SO outlined a much smarter strategy for Ed yesterday "Yes, I support EVEL, show me the details of how it works" then stand back and watch as Cameron wades through treacle......

So, EdM would support a policy but not know how it works? How does THAT work?
Opposition are supposed to have the new ideas.
And when EdM is told quite simply how it works - how does he look then?

Sean_F

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

It's an interesting number, though. It goes a long way towards explaining Labour's performance in May's elections.

Flightpath

TGOHF said:

Verulamius said:

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

No this is the big one - where he fills in the blank page - I've got an email from his wife to say please watch it - so they definitely aren't getting desperate.

Really - I thought his wife was busy looking after 'the kids'.

OblitusSumMe

___Bobajob___ said:

The WLQ is as old as the hills...

I think one of our Scottish posters did once clarify this, but what happened before Devolution?

Scotland has always had a legal and education system distinct from England's, and so pretty much every education [and many law-related] Bills in the history of the Union would have faced the same issues as at present. Presumably there were Education Acts that applied only to Scotland, but were voted on by the whole House?

TheWatcher

Flightpath said:

TGOHF said:

Verulamius said:

With the US bombing IS in Syria, less attention will be paid to Ed's speech.

Is this good news or bad news for Labour?

No this is the big one - where he fills in the blank page - I've got an email from his wife to say please watch it - so they definitely aren't getting desperate.

Really - I thought his wife was busy looking after 'the kids'.

I hope they're OK then, as she seems to be in the audience full time, gazing up at brave Ed.

TheScreamingEagles

Giving up smoking is easy.

I've done it many times.

isam

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

This table shows why it feels less British than other parts of the uk, and why people living there would find it harder to understand what the rest of the country is like

http://data.london.gov.uk/datafiles/demographics/nationality-london.xls

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

Londonistan

TGOHF

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

Financier

Will there be a need for Ministers for Scotland, Wales and NI after 2015? Perhaps just one would do? Could clear out a lot of civil servants as well.

Flightpath

Gadfly said:

SquareRoot said:

Gadfly said:

SquareRoot said:

If anyone wants to raise tax it should be on the nicotine replacement E thingys or whatever they are called. I think these E firms are owned by the tobacco companies???

Tax them to buggery.***


*** speaks reformed smoker not had a fag in 15 months and £250 a month better off every month. A packet of Benson and Hedges is nearly a TENNER now!

I have noticed a number of shops springing up dedicated to sale of these contraptions and presumably the required refills, which suggests that decent profits are being made.

I am guessing that they currently do not attract any tax and can therefore be sold with a high margin whilst remaining cheaper that the taxed alternatives.

I have a client who uses them, he says the e thingy replacement cartridges cost a tenner.or thereabouts and last about 10 days (I guess I depends on how much you use it.. ) There is a middle road somewhere between the cost of fags and these contraptions, the cost needs to be enough that it hurts so that people want to quit, at the moment the addiction is still there and at little cost.

So £1 per day versus SquareRoot's former £250 per month.

It seems to me that there is a good argument for taxing these things, given that governments argue that tobacco tax is there to save you, not them.

I packed in 25 years ago thankfully.

Are these contraptions actually addictive in their own right (leaving aside if they are safe or not)? If so then arguably they should be taxed.
Are they 'nicotine replacement'? Or are they an alternative way to get a nicotine fix? Isn't nicotine itself poisonous? (I seem to recall a Columbo episode where there was murder by nicotine)- again if so it should be taxed.

Presumably they attract 20% VAT?

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

If the Lib Dems back a mansion tax as well, then Twickenham and places like that become Tory gains.

TheWatcher

TGOHF said:

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

Or make any real cuts. Balls does talk balls.

CarlottaVance

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

It's an interesting number, though. It goes a long way towards explaining Labour's performance in May's elections.

I too was surprised (I think the original source is Ben Page of Ipsos Mori, who O'Flynn does not credit) - and it certainly would explain a lot - the North London wonkery may be a bigger problem than just the leader....

I wonder what the Tory & Lib Dem numbers look like?

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

dr_spyn said:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 15s
Chuka on Today says 'I am not aware' of windfall tax plan for tobacco firms to raise cash for NHS.

Strategic retreat to previously unprepared positions.

Are there any tobacco firms left in the Uk ? Obviously they will leave if taxed.

This mansion tax - it sounds difficult to collect and difficult to work out if you pay it or not (there must be a lot of houses worth 1.6-2.4 million.

Labour are basically too scared to raise the top levels of income tax.

If the Lib Dems back a mansion tax as well, then Twickenham and places like that become Tory gains.

It didnt lose them Twickenham in 2010 so why should it lose them Twickenham in 2015?

Neil

Financier said:

Will there be a need for Ministers for Scotland, Wales and NI after 2015? Perhaps just one would do? Could clear out a lot of civil servants as well.

There was a lot of faux outrage when Labour eliminated a separate Scotland post in Cabinet by doubling it up. How many civil servants do you think are doing jobs in these offices that dont need to be done?

isam

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?

A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.

What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

It's an interesting number, though. It goes a long way towards explaining Labour's performance in May's elections.

I too was surprised (I think the original source is Ben Page of Ipsos Mori, who O'Flynn does not credit) - and it certainly would explain a lot - the North London wonkery may be a bigger problem than just the leader....

I wonder what the Tory & Lib Dem numbers look like?

O Flynn retweeted Page then commented on it!