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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the nex

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  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The private sector really not covering itself in much glory lately.

    Now Barclays gets fined £38m for not keeping client money separate.
  • Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

    But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.
    "It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    If it was Tony Blair he would have "accidentally" leaked her name within about ten minutes.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BenM said:

    The private sector really not covering itself in much glory lately.

    Now Barclays gets fined £38m for not keeping client money separate.

    Now, there's an idea.

    Fining public sector workers when mass child abuse scandals are uncovered.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    chestnut said:


    In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015

    YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3

    September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)

    Indeed.

    However, when Labour were on 38 the chances of the Tories being able to scale up to that were virtually non existent, and the scope to cope with a bit of slippage was significant for Labour.

    Labour are now regularly on 35. The Tories can conceivably poll that and a little bit beyond, while Labour's buffer against slippage is much thinner now.

    The risk to Labour is greater with a three point lead of 35-32 than it was with 38-35.
    True but of course 35/35 results in Ed as PM.

    Tories need at least 37 for even a minority Govt. IMO
    It depends if 35% is the point beyond which Labour can't fall.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    In my experience quite a lot of immigrants are sympathetic to the cultural loss or alienation felt by the original inhabitants of an area. A recent BBC documentary on immigration matched a couple who had immigrated from Pakistan to East London with an elderly indigenous British couple who had long lived in the area. The Pakistani-origin couple clearly felt genuine sorrow for the indigenous couple when they walked down the local high street together and saw that not one of the original English style shops (butchers, grocers etc) selling traditional English food remained.

    That's the thing about mass immigration. Aside from a small minority, the immigrants aren't really doing anything wrong. Most are warm-hearted decent people who just want a better life for themselves and their children. But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. The people to blame are the politicians for opening up the borders and then not doing what's needed to restrict them again.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    BenM said:

    The private sector really not covering itself in much glory lately.

    Now Barclays gets fined £38m for not keeping client money separate.

    Now, there's an idea.

    Fining public sector workers when mass child abuse scandals are uncovered.
    Only problem, it would bankrupt the public sector in hours.
  • Scott_P said:

    Neil said:

    Is it too early to declare Ed's speech a disaster?

    Never...
    Neil said:

    Is it too early to declare Ed's speech a disaster?

    Or an unparalleled success?
    Not too early to say it will make bugger all difference.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    BenM said:

    The private sector really not covering itself in much glory lately.

    Now Barclays gets fined £38m for not keeping client money separate.

    Good, shows the regulator is doing his/her job.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014

    BenM said:

    The private sector really not covering itself in much glory lately.

    Now Barclays gets fined £38m for not keeping client money separate.

    Now, there's an idea.

    Fining public sector workers when mass child abuse scandals are uncovered.
    Heartless fiend. Public sector workers have families to feed, dontcha know! They need the security a Job For Life offers them, as well as the flexibility to take as many sick days as they like without fear of an evil boss so much as raising an eyebrow.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Anorak said:

    Lovely comment from that truly ridiculous article in the Guardian about how horrible it is to be English.

    "Its amazing that nationalism in places as far apart as Venezuela and Scotland is considered such a progressive force by Guardian commentators; but one sun-burnt yob with a flag of St. George and a can of lager - and they've run inside and set the burglar alarm."

    "England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality" -- George Orwell.
  • Gadfly said:

    During the last 7 months the focus has been upon the Independence Referendum.

    Over the next 7 months the focus will be upon the pending General Election.

    After Christmas, maybe.

    When the January credit card bills arrive will the voters blame the Tories for the parlous state of their finances, or will they worry about how much worse things will become if Ed Balls becomes Chancellor?

    On that judgement rests the outcome.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
  • chestnut said:


    In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015

    YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3

    September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)

    Indeed.

    However, when Labour were on 38 the chances of the Tories being able to scale up to that were virtually non existent, and the scope to cope with a bit of slippage was significant for Labour.

    Labour are now regularly on 35. The Tories can conceivably poll that and a little bit beyond, while Labour's buffer against slippage is much thinner now.

    The risk to Labour is greater with a three point lead of 35-32 than it was with 38-35.
    True but of course 35/35 results in Ed as PM.

    Tories need at least 37 for even a minority Govt. IMO
    BJO, you seem convinced that Labour will not slip back from 35 when the campaign gets underway. Is that what has happened in the past to the opposition's support?
  • BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    - Higher house prices
    - Longer waiting times to get GP appointments
    - Oversubscribed school places
    - Young children's English language development retarded due to majority of class not speaking English as mother tongue
    - Cultural change where the original inhabitants no longer fit in
    - Break down in community between two or more groups
    - Etc

    Maybe you consider the replacement of English bakers, butchers and grocers with Polish and Lithuanian supermarkets just "different", but most English people would regard it as having lost their traditional town. The Poles and Lithuanians will still have their traditional culture back in Poland and Lithuania - where will the traditional English culture be?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    Crime didn't exist before immigration?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

    But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.
    "It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    They weren't made up, and the only reason people couldn't raise the topic was the cowardice of Edward Heath

    Public support for Powell was huge, and his predictions have been proven correct

    Why do we even bother with these arguments? I will defend him to the hilt and you will cherry pick quotes that allow you to exhibit self pity. Boring.

    I think he was right, you think he was wrong. End of argument really, although I guess I you get a lot of comments from me and that makes you look competent in mikes absence click counter wise
    Lol, you don't understand how PB's popularity is measured or generated. Never mind. Play the man, not the ball, it's your style. (FYI - The more comments we get on PB, the more money it costs Mike, in server and Vanilla costs) PB is all about the links it generates.

    As an aside, does Socrates display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell?
    I've played the ball thousands of times when defending Enoch Powell, and I very rarely play the man here you should know that.

    No Socrates doesn't display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell, because he doesn't quote Powell and apply te quote to himself as you have often done
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

    But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.
    "It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    It is the idiots crying racist every time immigration is brought up that made discussing it impossible not Enoch Powell.
    Do you think he could have used less inflammatory language, if he had used more temperate language, it might have been better.
    A constituent came to him with a complaint and he acted on it despite the accusations of racism he knew it would bring ( the chorus of execration)

    We have seen recently in South Yorkshire what happens when politicians put fear of political correctness ahead of the fears of their constituents
  • BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    Crime didn't exist before immigration?
    The grooming and serial rape of young white girls by Pakistani men didn't, no.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    chestnut said:


    In the last 7 months the Red and Blue lines have run in parallel havent they 7 months to go to GE2015

    YG last 7 month averages 4,4,3,4,3,4,3,3

    September currently could be either 3 or 4 (exactly 3.5 at the moment)

    Indeed.

    However, when Labour were on 38 the chances of the Tories being able to scale up to that were virtually non existent, and the scope to cope with a bit of slippage was significant for Labour.

    Labour are now regularly on 35. The Tories can conceivably poll that and a little bit beyond, while Labour's buffer against slippage is much thinner now.

    The risk to Labour is greater with a three point lead of 35-32 than it was with 38-35.
    True but of course 35/35 results in Ed as PM.

    Tories need at least 37 for even a minority Govt. IMO
    BJO, you seem convinced that Labour will not slip back from 35 when the campaign gets underway. Is that what has happened in the past to the opposition's support?
    Not convinced no.

    I think LAB probably needs a minimum of 34% to have any chance of a slim maj.

    At 32% could still be most seats but for Ed to be minority PM about 33%

    Could be very tight and nearly all my betting on GE2015 market are on LAB most seats with tiny amount on LAB maJ.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    I've played the ball thousands of times when defending Enoch Powell, and I very rarely play the man here you should know that.

    No Socrates doesn't display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell, because he doesn't quote Powell and apply te quote to himself as you have often done

    So you admit playing the man not the ball in the above instance. Thanks, that's all I needed to know.

    In future, I'll apply the quote purely to Moeen Ali.
  • Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
  • Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    BenM said:

    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Cumluative YTD Govt borrowing now running £2.6bn up from last year.

    Now an awful lot of reliance being placed on self assessed tax receipts from all those thousands of newly created self employed entrepreneurs the Tories keep lauding!

    Taxes are flowing in.

    It's APF receipts that are down just under £15bn, while debt interest payments are the fastest growing area of expenditure.

    I'm using the old basis for measurement which ignored APF tansfers.

    And the BBC has this to say on tax receipts:
    Economists have spoken of a "taxless" recovery that has made it harder for Mr Osborne to balance the books.

    This refers to the fact that receipts from income tax have not been rising as much as the government would have hoped, despite rises in the number of people in work, because pay rises have been meagre for many.

    August continued this trend, with income tax receipts and social security payments growing just 1.6% from the previous year.

    For the tax year so far, the amount has been 0.6% lower than in the same period a year earlier.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29324751

    Overall income growth for the government is up by 2% YoY with income tax receipts being the net drag because of the 45p rate distortions from last year. Excluding the APF receipts (which should never have been included in the first place, the government is effectively paying itself interest on gilts) there are no signs that this is a taxless recovery, even income tax has begun to recover after the poor start this year because of last year's bumper receipts from delayed bonuses.

    The BBC have it wrong, income tax receipts are falling YoY YTD because of the distortions from last year. On the monthly comparison income tax receipts (PAYE+Self assessment) was £11.75bn for 8/14 and for 8/13 it was £11.36bn, a 3.4% rise, just below nominal GDP growth YoY and in line with VAT growth and other taxes not called stamp duty.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:



    - Higher house prices
    - Longer waiting times to get GP appointments
    - Oversubscribed school places
    - Young children's English language development retarded due to majority of class not speaking English as mother tongue
    - Cultural change where the original inhabitants no longer fit in
    - Break down in community between two or more groups
    - Etc

    Maybe you consider the replacement of English bakers, butchers and grocers with Polish and Lithuanian supermarkets just "different", but most English people would regard it as having lost their traditional town. The Poles and Lithuanians will still have their traditional culture back in Poland and Lithuania - where will the traditional English culture be?

    I consider the replacement of one shop by another an example of the market working.

    Besides, most native Brits have voted with their feet as regards local shops are concerned and frequent supermarkets instead.

    Why don't we blame Asda or Tesco for the elderly couple's discomfort?

    And looking at your bulet points, there are so many other more relevant causes for each that can be identified before we even consider the impact of immigration.

    Although I understand for some people lurching for the immigration card to explain all ills is easier than thinking about an issue.
  • Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?
    I asked you last night when did I said that, I may have done but I do not recall ever saying it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @isam

    I don't think it's self-pity for TSE to take offence when someone says he can't have his national identity. I feel similarly when a Scottish nationalist says that Britishness is just a geographic term. TSE is as much an Englishman as I am, and it's perfectly reasonable for him to use himself as an example to take exception to what Powell said. I don't detect any self-pity in the manner he does that.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    Crime didn't exist before immigration?
    The grooming and serial rape of young white girls by Pakistani men didn't, no.
    So it was white men before. For you does that make it better then?
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    Scott_P said:

    Are there any buzzword bingos markets up for Ed's speech.

    Rendered obsolete...

    @JoeWatts_: The Ed Miliband random phrase generator by....The Guardian http://t.co/FY6rHcZstk via @dylsharpe
    Even the Guardian are taking the piss out of weird Ed.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:



    - Higher house prices
    - Longer waiting times to get GP appointments
    - Oversubscribed school places
    - Young children's English language development retarded due to majority of class not speaking English as mother tongue
    - Cultural change where the original inhabitants no longer fit in
    - Break down in community between two or more groups
    - Etc

    Maybe you consider the replacement of English bakers, butchers and grocers with Polish and Lithuanian supermarkets just "different", but most English people would regard it as having lost their traditional town. The Poles and Lithuanians will still have their traditional culture back in Poland and Lithuania - where will the traditional English culture be?

    I consider the replacement of one shop by another an example of the market working.

    Besides, most native Brits have voted with their feet as regards local shops are concerned and frequent supermarkets instead.

    Why don't we blame Asda or Tesco for the elderly couple's discomfort?

    And looking at your bulet points, there are so many other more relevant causes for each that can be identified before we even consider the impact of immigration.

    Although I understand for some people lurching for the immigration card to explain all ills is easier than thinking about an issue.

    Where do you live,because the things you post on immigration,you really haven't a clue.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    stuck.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    If it was Tony Blair he would have "accidentally" leaked her name within about ten minutes.
    Powell was pressed on many occasions to name yo the woman and never did for fear of reprisals on her despite the grief and smearing it would have saved him.

    There are so many examples of Powell not being driven by racism it is difficult to understand any intelligent person thinking he was.

    He specifically said the problem wasn't anything to do with the qualities of the immigrants, but that a feeling of apprehension and anxiety existed in the English population needed to be addressed rather than ignored. That was the whole point of his speech

    "I have never said or implied that immigrants are more predisposed to vicious or spiteful behaviour than the indigenous population. Though their customs and their social habits and expectations may be widely different, there is no reason to suppose they are more malevolent or more prone to wrong-doing. That is, however, not the point. With the malefactors among our own people we have got to cope; they are our own responsibility and part of our own society. It is something totally different when the same or similar activities are perpetrated by strangers, and above all when they occur in the course of an increase in the numbers of those strangers and an extension of the areas which they occupy – an increase and an extension to which the victims perceive no end in sight. Surely only very clever people could fail to understand so simple a point."

    http://www.enochpowell.net/fr-83.html
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BenM said:

    Although I understand for some people lurching for the immigration card to explain all ills is easier than thinking about an issue.

    It's easier to try and dismiss legitimate senses of grievance as "lurching for the immigration card" than to actually think about them.



  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    I've played the ball thousands of times when defending Enoch Powell, and I very rarely play the man here you should know that.

    No Socrates doesn't display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell, because he doesn't quote Powell and apply te quote to himself as you have often done

    So you admit playing the man not the ball in the above instance. Thanks, that's all I needed to know.

    In future, I'll apply the quote purely to Moeen Ali.
    You reference yourself in your arguments about Enoch Powell so you invite references to yourself.

  • Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?
    Of course you do.

    Will it be Lancashire or Yorkshire?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?
    I asked you last night when did I said that, I may have done but I do not recall ever saying it.
    In reply to a comment of mine, you concluded with

    "I believe the day of reckoning is coming and some of you need to decide which side you are on."

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/366315/#Comment_366315
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    Crime didn't exist before immigration?
    It did but it wasn't ignored on a mass scale because of political correctness... Some crime was ignored and covered up, yes, but why add to that?
  • James Kirkup, writing in today's Daily Telegraph from the Labour Party Conference:

    "The trouble is, no matter how much Labour wanted to stick to its conference script, oppositions don’t dictate the agenda any more than toddlers decide what’s for tea. So when Ed Balls did a round of interviews yesterday to publicise a speech in which he tried to argue that Labour can be trusted with your money, the pesky journalists kept asking about England."

    You bet they did!
  • BenM said:

    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    Crime didn't exist before immigration?
    The grooming and serial rape of young white girls by Pakistani men didn't, no.
    So it was white men before. For you does that make it better then?
    No, it is a despicable crime whoever the perpetrator is, I have first hand knowledge of the after effects of such an abhorrent crime.

    Are you saying the serial grooming and rape of young white girls by Pakistani men is not a result of immigration?

  • Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.

    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html

    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.


    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .

    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.

    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.

    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.

    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.

    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?

    I asked you last night when did I said that, I may have done but I do not recall ever saying it.

    In reply to a comment of mine, you concluded with

    "I believe the day of reckoning is coming and some of you need to decide which side you are on."

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/366315/#Comment_366315

    I believe that huge problems lie ahead in this country, I genuinely do and it troubles me greatly.Other commentators on here have said a similar thing.

    As the country lurches toward Sharia Law I can see nothing but problems, so will the vast majority of decent Muslims side with the laws of the land or will they happily go along with Sharia Law?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:



    - Higher house prices
    - Longer waiting times to get GP appointments
    - Oversubscribed school places
    - Young children's English language development retarded due to majority of class not speaking English as mother tongue
    - Cultural change where the original inhabitants no longer fit in
    - Break down in community between two or more groups
    - Etc

    Maybe you consider the replacement of English bakers, butchers and grocers with Polish and Lithuanian supermarkets just "different", but most English people would regard it as having lost their traditional town. The Poles and Lithuanians will still have their traditional culture back in Poland and Lithuania - where will the traditional English culture be?

    I consider the replacement of one shop by another an example of the market working.

    Besides, most native Brits have voted with their feet as regards local shops are concerned and frequent supermarkets instead.

    Why don't we blame Asda or Tesco for the elderly couple's discomfort?

    And looking at your bullet points, there are so many other more relevant causes for each that can be identified before we even consider the impact of immigration.

    Although I understand for some people lurching for the immigration card to explain all ills is easier than thinking about an issue.
    "The market working." This is from the same guy that rails about that as an excuse when it comes to the need to get our fiscal balance sheets in order. In areas of low immigration, plenty of local shops still exist. In areas where the immigration has been low-scale and integrated they also do.

    Your argument that we must look at every other cause before we look at immigration is completely facetious. Of course, all of these have a multitude of causes, but immigration is a major one to all of them. And if something accentuates problems that are already difficult, then it should not be stopped unless the benefits overcome those issues. And the benefits of immigration, helping economic growth and the like, can be easily achieved with a limited amount (<100,000) of high-skilled migrants from peaceful, democratic societies. Mass immigration is completely unneeded and harmful.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    I've played the ball thousands of times when defending Enoch Powell, and I very rarely play the man here you should know that.

    No Socrates doesn't display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell, because he doesn't quote Powell and apply te quote to himself as you have often done

    So you admit playing the man not the ball in the above instance. Thanks, that's all I needed to know.

    In future, I'll apply the quote purely to Moeen Ali.
    You reference yourself in your arguments about Enoch Powell so you invite references to yourself.

    See Socrates comment below, lest your embarrass yourself further.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014

    Of course you do.

    Will it be Lancashire or Yorkshire?

    I'm a Yorkshire man, who is a member of Lancashire County Cricket Club.

    I'm confused.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    SNIP
    SNIP
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    Thank you for that.

    Interesting, one of the pieces I read at school said, he would have become PM, had he proven the lady existed.

    I did like this bit from the article

    Despite her claims of feeling driven out, Druscilla stayed in Brighton Place until ill-health forced her to move to sheltered accommodation.

    When she died in 1978, among the bouquets at her funeral there were flowers sent by the West Indian neighbours who she once claimed made her feel like a stranger in her own street.
    . But the aggregate effect of so many coming causes a lot of negative consequences for those already here. .
    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.
    Like ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED victims (so far) of rape.

    Of course they would be no more than collateral damage to the Left.
    That's a different case of a minority of immigrants deliberately causing wrong.
    Yes I totally agree but it is still relevant.
    Do you still want me to choose which side I'm on?
    Of course you do.

    Will it be Lancashire or Yorkshire?

    I'm a Yorkshire man, who is a member of Lancashire County Cricket Club.

    I'm confused.
    Who supports Liverpool... even more confused.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Lennon said:

    Who supports Liverpool... even more confused.

    I was a child of the 80s, There were about 10 club matches shown on TV per season, and 9 of those featured Liverpool
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So - who would win a Ukip leadership election - Enoch or Nigel ?

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Quote from @JenWilliamsMEN - "Have been told by three well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go UKIP"

    @JenWilliamsMEN - "I think that Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now"
  • Mr. Eagles, you turncoat!
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795


    As the country lurches toward Sharia Law I can see nothing but problems, so will the vast majority of decent Muslims side with the laws of the land or will they happily go along with Sharia Law?

    Get a grip.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I've played the ball thousands of times when defending Enoch Powell, and I very rarely play the man here you should know that.

    No Socrates doesn't display self pity when he criticises Enoch Powell, because he doesn't quote Powell and apply te quote to himself as you have often done

    So you admit playing the man not the ball in the above instance. Thanks, that's all I needed to know.

    In future, I'll apply the quote purely to Moeen Ali.
    You reference yourself in your arguments about Enoch Powell so you invite references to yourself.

    See Socrates comment below, lest your embarrass yourself further.
    I've seen them, so what?

    If you bring your own situation into a debate then it's fair game to answer referencing you personally. Whether I am right or wrong isn't the point. I've never said anything about whether you are English or not, so what are you getting at?
  • Mr. Eagles, you turncoat!

    I'm a Yorkshireman, who would unite us with the Red Rose County.

    Unity through Strength.

    Obviously I'd rename Lancashire to Little Yorkshire.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Quote from @JenWilliamsMEN - "Have been told by three well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go UKIP"

    @JenWilliamsMEN - "I think that Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now"

    Labour should cancel the rest of their conference and send all the delegates to Heywood and Middleton.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    stuck.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Yup, he was a crappy politician, thanks to him and his made up stories about immigrants, nobody could raise the topic of immigration without sounding like a nasty bigot for decades.
    I do not agree with Enoch Powell's views on nationality, but it looks like his stories were not made up:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-433497/Widow-Enoch-Powells-Rivers-Blood-speech-really-did-exist.html
    If it was Tony Blair he would have "accidentally" leaked her name within about ten minutes.
    Powell was pressed on many occasions to name yo the woman and never did for fear of reprisals on her despite the grief and smearing it would have saved him.

    There are so many examples of Powell not being driven by racism it is difficult to understand any intelligent person thinking he was.

    He specifically said the problem wasn't anything to do with the qualities of the immigrants, but that a feeling of apprehension and anxiety existed in the English population needed to be addressed rather than ignored. That was the whole point of his speech

    "I have never said or implied that immigrants are more predisposed to vicious or spiteful behaviour than the indigenous population "



    http://www.enochpowell.net/fr-83.html
    Shame the same can't be said by Farage....
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited September 2014
    oh god I feel another invasion of posts about one of the two places that gets discussed in minute detail on here -Its either North London (especially Camden) or Yorkshire!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    What are you on about - income tax rates were cut and receipts are UP !

    Interest payments are UP (thanks Labour) - hence why the net figures aren't great.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    Just because countries sometimes exist on the left hand side of the Laffer curve doesn't mean the Laffer curve doesn't exist.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    The figures are a direct reflection of interest payments made, and interest payments and dividends received.

    No more, no less.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Lennon said:

    Who supports Liverpool... even more confused.

    I was a child of the 80s, There were about 10 club matches shown on TV per season, and 9 of those featured Liverpool
    And the best one was on May 26th 1989

    Look you can take this any way you want. I think it's pretty pathetic to trade personal insults with someone I've not met on here, and the one upmanship that ensues does embarrass me, I don't dislike anyone personally despite political disagreements, and certainly not based on race or nationality, and I'm tired of circular arguments about Enoch Powell. I like him, I think he was correct, others including you disagree, fair enough. He coined the term West Lothian Question, that's all I said, and now look what's developed. Let's leave it
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    You can no more discredit the Laffer curve with these figures than you can support it. We dont have an alternative universe to experiment on.
  • chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    The figures are a direct reflection of interest payments made, and interest payments and dividends received.

    No more, no less.
    Doesn't really matter about the detail in one months borrowing (the goalposts keep changing anyway) .What does matter is the huge National Debt and a huge ongoing National Deficit . If the state cannot support its spending by taxes then its not being honest with people (and especially future generations).
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    What are you on about - income tax rates were cut and receipts are UP !

    Interest payments are UP (thanks Labour) - hence why the net figures aren't great.

    @ReutersJamie

    UK pay growth is very, very weak. Despite record employment, income tax receipts + social security payments are DOWN 0.6% so far this year.

    Record employment in burger chains. Osborne's employment 'miracle'.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    On the mansion tax,would'nt the tories using the term 'London tax' frighten London labour ?
  • Breaking: Two people potentially have been pushed under a train at Slough
  • On the mansion tax,would'nt the tories using the term 'London tax' frighten London labour ?

    Possibly but would not resonate outside London (I know Londoners cannot believe it but most people outside London do not care for London that much so 'London tax' sounds quite good)

    Best to nickname it the 'asset tax' imo
  • Lennon said:

    Quote from @JenWilliamsMEN - "Have been told by three well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go UKIP"

    @JenWilliamsMEN - "I think that Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now"

    I would be amazed if UKIP run Labour close. The 2014 local elections saw Labour win by 39.9% to the UKIP 24.3%.

    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2014
    BenM said:

    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    What are you on about - income tax rates were cut and receipts are UP !

    Interest payments are UP (thanks Labour) - hence why the net figures aren't great.

    @ReutersJamie

    UK pay growth is very, very weak. Despite record employment, income tax receipts + social security payments are DOWN 0.6% so far this year.

    Record employment in burger chains. Osborne's employment 'miracle'.
    Pay has nothing to do with the Laffer curve - income tax is the prime one.

    From the Tele

    "The wider deficit was recorded despite an across the board increase in tax receipts in August. This includes a 2.4pc rise in income tax, to £11.3bn, and a 17.2pc increase in corporation tax, to £1.5bn. Stamp duties on land, shares and property also jumped by 24.1pc to £1.3bn, driven by the buoyant housing market."

    "Self employment has seen an increase of almost 400,000 workers compared with last year, official data show. The Treasury has pencilled-in a tax windfall in January when self assessment receipts are due."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
  • BenM said:

    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    What are you on about - income tax rates were cut and receipts are UP !

    Interest payments are UP (thanks Labour) - hence why the net figures aren't great.

    @ReutersJamie

    UK pay growth is very, very weak. Despite record employment, income tax receipts + social security payments are DOWN 0.6% so far this year.

    Record employment in burger chains. Osborne's employment 'miracle'.
    Proves people like to eat burgers more than pay for diversity coordinators to faff around
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    Particularly if the disorganization / infighting in the Labour camp being mentioned by compouter is even close to being accurate.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    On the mansion tax,would'nt the tories using the term 'London tax' frighten London labour ?

    It would be a pretty clever turn of phrase actually.


  • Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    I have always thought that the Tories didn't do tactical voting - hence the concept of an "anti-Labour" vote doesn't exist in British politics in the way that the "anti-Tory" vote does.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Lennon said:

    Quote from @JenWilliamsMEN - "Have been told by three well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go UKIP"

    @JenWilliamsMEN - "I think that Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now"

    I would be amazed if UKIP run Labour close. The 2014 local elections saw Labour win by 39.9% to the UKIP 24.3%.

    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.
    Big events relevant to the area have dominated the news since May

    Plus we hear the labour machine is at war in the constituency

    Hope so, I've laid Labour from 1.09-1.15!

    Not forgetting my 5/2 w Quincel!!

    Hills have pulled the market I think
  • On the mansion tax,would'nt the tories using the term 'London tax' frighten London labour ?

    Possibly but would not resonate outside London (I know Londoners cannot believe it but most people outside London do not care for London that much so 'London tax' sounds quite good)

    Best to nickname it the 'asset tax' imo

    Home Tax
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    If Labour were to lose Heywood and Middleton, which seems mightily improbable, they would enter the 2015 election with less MPs than they had on the day Ed Miliband was installed.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mansion tax = home tax.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FalseFlag said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

    Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

    Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?
    A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
    What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.
    What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

    This table shows why it feels less British than other parts of the uk, and why people living there would find it harder to understand what the rest of the country is like

    http://data.london.gov.uk/datafiles/demographics/nationality-london.xls
    Can't separate London from the home counties and it's suburbs.
    Yes you can.

    I've split my life between London, the Home Counties and roots in the West Country.

    I work pretty hard at keeping my connections up in the countryside, and that's where I feel most at rest. But the longer I spend in London's frenetic whirl, the more distant the countryside's concern become.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    I have always thought that the Tories didn't do tactical voting - hence the concept of an "anti-Labour" vote doesn't exist in British politics in the way that the "anti-Tory" vote does.
    I think it's naive to think there is no such thing as an anti-Labour vote. I would be shocked, for example, if the Tories hold on to their 21.5% of the vote from May.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Lennon said:

    Quote from @JenWilliamsMEN - "Have been told by three well-placed Labour people that Heywood and Middleton could go UKIP"

    @JenWilliamsMEN - "I think that Labour (nationally anyway) had assumed so far that Heywood would be fine. Sounds like the penny is dropping now"

    I would be amazed if UKIP run Labour close. The 2014 local elections saw Labour win by 39.9% to the UKIP 24.3%.

    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.
    Agreed. UKIP has very little chance of winning. It would be an earthquake if it happened.
  • Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    I have always thought that the Tories didn't do tactical voting - hence the concept of an "anti-Labour" vote doesn't exist in British politics in the way that the "anti-Tory" vote does.
    Well as a tory voter ,if I lived in this seat , for the by- election I would vote UKIP (I don't really like UKIP but prefer them to Labour wining a by election . By-elections are different to general elections.
    Also if it can be proved UKIP can win Labour seats then the effect of UKIP on the tories will not be so detrimental as they will take votes of both parties more evenly
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    chestnut said:

    On the mansion tax,would'nt the tories using the term 'London tax' frighten London labour ?

    It would be a pretty clever turn of phrase actually.
    Actually, scrap that.

    The Scotland subsidy.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited September 2014
    I think the myth that tories do not do tactical voting comes from the fact that the other two main parties up to now are considered left wing and therefore whats the point?. UKIP are considered right wing so can be supported if the stars line up
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

    But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.
    "It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Don't really see why you felt the need to say that, but as you wish

    At least we are agreed that Enoch was the first to term the puzzle the "West Lothian Question", and I therefore expect the term to barely be used on PB again!
    Because I think you are in danger of missing the flaws in the man. He got some things right, and a lot wrong.
  • Mr. Away, that theory may be tested in certain northern seats.

    But would the reverse be true? If UKIP supported the Conservative trying to beat Balls then it would be much harder for Balls to hold on. Doubt it'll happen, though.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    To win in Heywood and Middleton Labour need to hold on to their 10,000 votes from May, squeeze the Lib Dems into voting tactically against UKIP and look to drive turnout up on what is was then.

    UKIP need to ride a wave of momentum, get most of the Tories and some Lib Dems to vote anti Labour and hope turnout stays at May levels.

    I think Labour should be favourites on paper but people on the ground will have a much better idea of what is happening and I'm not tempted to second guess them.
  • Mr. Away, that theory may be tested in certain northern seats.

    But would the reverse be true? If UKIP supported the Conservative trying to beat Balls then it would be much harder for Balls to hold on. Doubt it'll happen, though.

    Yes I think the reverse is true as well. A lot of potential UKIP voters in 2015 will have come from voting Tory in 2010. I suppose if they vote tory again in 2015 (to unseat Balls for example) then they will not show up as tactical voters (just tory voters) but they will be effectively
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Away from Miliband's big speech today, some in Lab worry they cd lose Heywood byelxn to UKIP. Here's why http://t.co/FfZjudIBoK
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2014
    Neil said:

    Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    I have always thought that the Tories didn't do tactical voting - hence the concept of an "anti-Labour" vote doesn't exist in British politics in the way that the "anti-Tory" vote does.
    I think it's naive to think there is no such thing as an anti-Labour vote. I would be shocked, for example, if the Tories hold on to their 21.5% of the vote from May.
    It looks like the lowest share of the vote the Tories have received in this seat is 21.4% in 2005.

    I'd say that roughly 20% of the vote is probably a pretty reliable bedrock for the Tories here.

    I can see that I don't have much support from others on pb.com for my scepticism, so I look forward to the result with more interest than previously.
  • Ouch! The DP has just played the LBC Rachel Reeve car crash on the basic state pension 'its around £100'....'Its £113'.......so much for 'out of touch Tories.....'
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:



    Like what?

    In your story it's not clear that the changing style of shops in the street "is negative". It's just different.

    It's pretty clear that it's negative *for them*.

    It may be that, in the aggregate, the country as a whole benefits, but governing the country needs to be about more than just economics.

    If a large section of the population feels alienated then our leaders have failed.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:

    FalseFlag said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jo_Suherman: Audible gasps at @IpsosMORI fringe as audience presented graph showing Ed's unpopularity on a par with IDS, Howard and Hague as opp leaders

    Ed is no Kinnock. Not even Foot.

    Dear God, where have these activists been for the last four years?
    A London bubble based on the tweet I just saw

    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynnmep 34m
    What an amazing stat - 48% of Labour Party members are from London. No wonder this party doesn't understand Britain.
    What country does Patrick O'Flynn think London is in?

    This table shows why it feels less British than other parts of the uk, and why people living there would find it harder to understand what the rest of the country is like

    http://data.london.gov.uk/datafiles/demographics/nationality-london.xls
    Can't separate London from the home counties and it's suburbs.
    Yes you can.

    I've split my life between London, the Home Counties and roots in the West Country.

    I work pretty hard at keeping my connections up in the countryside, and that's where I feel most at rest. But the longer I spend in London's frenetic whirl, the more distant the countryside's concern become.
    Which is even more of a reason that we don't split London off to become an island on its own any longer. It needs to be embedded back into the region and nation of which it is part.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    I'd say that roughly 20% of the vote is probably a pretty reliable bedrock for the Tories here.

    I would be shocked if they did that well. They lost 10%+ in Wythenshawe, South Shields, Middlesbrough and Rotherham when there wasnt really a huge bandwagon rolling on for UKIP. I wouldnt be backing a 20%+ vote for them here at all.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Also - will the mansion tax apply in Scotland (asking for JackW) ?

    And Primrose Hill? Ed's neighbours will be delighted at the prospect of shelling out another £10K a year.
    Good question for Ed - will he be able to claim mansion tax on expenses ?

    The average price for a house in the street where Ed lives is now over £2.8 million.....
  • Oop
    AggieD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Also - will the mansion tax apply in Scotland (asking for JackW) ?

    And Primrose Hill? Ed's neighbours will be delighted at the prospect of shelling out another £10K a year.
    Good question for Ed - will he be able to claim mansion tax on expenses ?

    The average price for a house in the street where Ed lives is now over £2.8 million.....
    Oops sorry, fat fingers when scrolling on ipad.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Ouch! The DP has just played the LBC Rachel Reeve car crash on the basic state pension 'its around £100'....'Its £113'.......so much for 'out of touch Tories.....'

    Part of me thinks that these trivia questions (like price of a pint of milk) are completely pointless. But for the Shadow SoS for Work and Pensions to not know the single most important benefit rate is quite something. Can we be sure she knows the pros and cons of abolishing the BSP? McClymont (Shadow Pension Minister) on the other hand knows his stuff.

  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227

    chestnut said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    The figures are a direct reflection of interest payments made, and interest payments and dividends received.

    No more, no less.
    Doesn't really matter about the detail in one months borrowing (the goalposts keep changing anyway) .What does matter is the huge National Debt and a huge ongoing National Deficit . If the state cannot support its spending by taxes then its not being honest with people (and especially future generations).
    The National Debt is nothing more than babies being born into debt bondage slavery.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited September 2014

    Neil said:

    Neil said:


    Even if you exclude the two wards where UKIP didn't stand a candidate - which you would assume would be UKIP's weakest wards, so this is a comparison which should favour them - Labour were still ahead by the ratio 4:3.

    Not saying that it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing step forward from four months ago, and it would imply that UKIP were capable of winning dozens of seats at GE2015.

    It wouldnt be that amazing. The anti-Labour vote is obviously going to coalesce around UKIP, you can easily imagine them doing much better in these circumstances than in May.
    I have always thought that the Tories didn't do tactical voting - hence the concept of an "anti-Labour" vote doesn't exist in British politics in the way that the "anti-Tory" vote does.
    I think it's naive to think there is no such thing as an anti-Labour vote. I would be shocked, for example, if the Tories hold on to their 21.5% of the vote from May.
    It looks like the lowest share of the vote the Tories have received in this seat is 21.4% in 2005.

    I'd say that roughly 20% of the vote is probably a pretty reliable bedrock for the Tories here.

    I can see that I don't have much support from others on pb.com for my scepticism, so I look forward to the result with more interest than previously.
    Look at the Wythenshawe by-election for a guide on what might happen to the Tory vote. Again, had previously been consistent at the 20-25% (or so) level - By-Election and they got 15%.

    (Edit to add - and I would be astonished if they did that well this time around given that there is now a UKIP bandwagon that there wasn't previously, and the Tories are focused on Clacton)
  • Neil said:

    Ouch! The DP has just played the LBC Rachel Reeve car crash on the basic state pension 'its around £100'....'Its £113'.......so much for 'out of touch Tories.....'

    Part of me thinks that these trivia questions (like price of a pint of milk) are completely pointless. But for the Shadow SoS for Work and Pensions to not know the single most important benefit rate is quite something. Can we be sure she knows the pros and cons of abolishing the BSP? McClymont (Shadow Pension Minister) on the other hand knows his stuff.

    Yes, its trivial, - I thought Cameron had a nice swerve on the price of a loaf 'Sam uses a bread maker' - but not knowing basic stuff on your area of policy is more concerning.....

    DP repeating the 'Miliband lower trust than Cameron in Scotland'......that's a meme that will run & run.....

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Love the fact that "West Lothian Question" is copyright J.E.Powell

    If there is a reshuffle, I assume the bet is void? Disgraceful from paddy power if not

    Is it (I saw you said it last night).

    My memory (which could be false) is that it was called that because of a famous speech by Tam Dayell (?sp) a great Labour MP OE. He had about 3 or 4 examples of Scottish towns paired with English towns with the same initial letter that he used as a rhetorical device.

    But he was the MP for West Lothian, so that was the name that stuck.
    "It was actually Enoch Powell, responding to Dalyell, who said “Let us call it the West Lothian Question”, giving a name to a problem that has vexed politicians for decades (Prime Minister William Gladstone, who represented Midlothian in the 19th century, tried to address a similar issue raised by Irish Home Rule in the 1880s). "

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-west-lothian-question
    Fair enough. Powell was a good orator.

    But still a nasty bully. And not as smart as he thought he was.
    Don't really see why you felt the need to say that, but as you wish

    At least we are agreed that Enoch was the first to term the puzzle the "West Lothian Question", and I therefore expect the term to barely be used on PB again!
    Because I think you are in danger of missing the flaws in the man. He got some things right, and a lot wrong.
    I've not said anything other than I agree with his logic on mass immigration have I?

    Although I have heard it said that Thatchers economics, which I assume you agree with being a conservative, were based on "Powellism".

    What he was like as a person, I have no idea. Seems a bit of a loner/awkward from what I have read or seen, but that's not what I'm interested in
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    BenM said:

    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Worth noting that with today's poor borrowing figures Laffer is the dog that failed to bark.

    Time has long since passed when that discredited theory ought to have been put out to pasture.

    What are you on about - income tax rates were cut and receipts are UP !

    Interest payments are UP (thanks Labour) - hence why the net figures aren't great.

    @ReutersJamie

    UK pay growth is very, very weak. Despite record employment, income tax receipts + social security payments are DOWN 0.6% so far this year.

    Record employment in burger chains. Osborne's employment 'miracle'.
    Proves people like to eat burgers more than pay for diversity coordinators to faff around
    Its prety obvious that the hundreds of thousands of extra jobs are not in burger chains and that BenM is talking cobblers.
    Labour's excuses are miserable.
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