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Now the big story will be what he does next – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageNow the big story will be what he does next – politicalbetting.com

We have reached another crossroads in the colourful political career of Boris Johnson who won the last election with a landslide majority for his party. The situation of having to leave a job is not new to him and in just about every case he’s been fired for not telling the truth. This latest move fits into that pattern.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,506
    Second
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 766
    As the ballot for his replacement ended at 5pm yesterday - the Conservative Party must now have the result. Why are we waiting until lunchtime on Monday for the result? When is it going to be leaked?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,083
    Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

    Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

    In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,083
    Icarus said:

    As the ballot for his replacement ended at 5pm yesterday - the Conservative Party must now have the result. Why are we waiting until lunchtime on Monday for the result? When is it going to be leaked?

    The Conservative Party don’t do the counting or verifying or (if required) de-duplication - an outside firm does. All they will know is when the firm gives them the result. So “inside sources” should be treated with a very high degree of scepticism.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,478
    Icarus said:

    As the ballot for his replacement ended at 5pm yesterday - the Conservative Party must now have the result. Why are we waiting until lunchtime on Monday for the result? When is it going to be leaked?

    I guess the Sunak's Californian housekeeper will be told to expect their imminent arrival...
  • Reminder: at some point, inside information about the count may be leaked.

    Rishi is not very liquid. The price on Liz Truss is a more reliable signal, or would be if it moved.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18.5 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    20 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,478
    There has been a sudden glut on Twitter of videos showing TB2 strikes on Russian hardware, claimed to be on the Kherson front. Makes you wonder how long the Russians to the west of the river can sustain their current rate of losses before they're forced to retreat.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1565977656306409473
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,335
    This is the policy of Andy Burnham I believe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/03/bus-fares-in-england-to-be-capped-at-2-for-three-months-says-dft

    Which was taken through the courts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    For those that are flowing, ORYX has been keeping track of verifiable losses of equipment in the war, for both sides. Its now up to 998 Russian tanks (all classes, and likely will be pass 1000 with in the next 24 hours. is there an appropriate way to mark this occasion?

    Link here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    When the latest batch of reports to be processed came in, I believe his comment was “FML”.
    Sorry if I'm showing my ignorance of the lexicon but In this context what does FML mean or stand for?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880

    Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

    Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

    In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

    Perhaps Sholz is finally starting to get the message.

    The gas isn’t coming back, the only way out is to defeat Putin’s army on the battlefield and liberate Ukraine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    For those that are flowing, ORYX has been keeping track of verifiable losses of equipment in the war, for both sides. Its now up to 998 Russian tanks (all classes, and likely will be pass 1000 with in the next 24 hours. is there an appropriate way to mark this occasion?

    Link here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    When the latest batch of reports to be processed came in, I believe his comment was “FML”.
    Sorry if I'm showing my ignorance of the lexicon but In this context what does FML mean or stand for?
    I assume 'F*ck my life' (ironically). So in this context 'wow, I now have so much work to do counting destroyed Russian kit'.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    For those that are flowing, ORYX has been keeping track of verifiable losses of equipment in the war, for both sides. Its now up to 998 Russian tanks (all classes, and likely will be pass 1000 with in the next 24 hours. is there an appropriate way to mark this occasion?

    Link here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    When the latest batch of reports to be processed came in, I believe his comment was “FML”.
    Sorry if I'm showing my ignorance of the lexicon but In this context what does FML mean or stand for?
    It means “F*** My Life”. An sigh of desperation in words.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,722
    edited September 3
    Sandpit said:

    Third, rate, like the Johnson Conservative Party.

    Talking of third rate, I’ve found the only people on the planet surprised by the Nordstream closure - the NYT:

    In a Surprise, Russia Says the Gas Pipeline to Germany Will Remain Closed

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/business/gazprom-nordstream.html?

    Perhaps Sholz is finally starting to get the message.

    The gas isn’t coming back, the only way out is to defeat Putin’s army on the battlefield and liberate Ukraine.
    That’s actually one of the ways to defeat Putin’s army. Don’t buy his gas.

    Russia will be losing hundreds of millions per day shitting off Nordstream 1. It’s a game of chicken that I don’t think Russia can win.

  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,838

    There has been a sudden glut on Twitter of videos showing TB2 strikes on Russian hardware, claimed to be on the Kherson front. Makes you wonder how long the Russians to the west of the river can sustain their current rate of losses before they're forced to retreat.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1565977656306409473

    The obvious thing to do would be to offer Russian soldiers free passage to the West, £5,000 each and a Playstation. It would be a lot cheaper than slinging all these missiles at them.
  • Icarus said:

    As the ballot for his replacement ended at 5pm yesterday - the Conservative Party must now have the result. Why are we waiting until lunchtime on Monday for the result? When is it going to be leaked?

    If last time is any guide, the result will be leaked when Old Lady tells Boris, Liz and Rishi the result, before it is announced publicly. Boris, Liz and Rishi will tell their families, staff and campaign teams, and they in turn will brief their mates in the media on a strictly confidential basis, and they will write embargoed stories.

    So basically, within an hour, everyone within spitting distance of SW1 will know.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.
  • If Labour wins the next election, the chances are Johnson won’t have a seat. If the Tories win he is irrelevant. Any impact he has will be between now and polling day. He certainly won’t keep his mouth shut.

    I think his hope is that Truss implodes and is defenestrated before the next election. Which is far from impossible...
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    How much has Boris ever cared about the Conservatives as a party with a past before him and a future after him, as opposed to a vehicle for his personal ambition?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,294
    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880

    There has been a sudden glut on Twitter of videos showing TB2 strikes on Russian hardware, claimed to be on the Kherson front. Makes you wonder how long the Russians to the west of the river can sustain their current rate of losses before they're forced to retreat.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1565977656306409473

    The obvious thing to do would be to offer Russian soldiers free passage to the West, £5,000 each and a Playstation. It would be a lot cheaper than slinging all these missiles at them.
    Sadly that tactic doesn’t work against a country like Russia, who will happily make a public show of kidnap, rape, even murder towards the families of defectors, to stop others following the same path.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    There has been a sudden glut on Twitter of videos showing TB2 strikes on Russian hardware, claimed to be on the Kherson front. Makes you wonder how long the Russians to the west of the river can sustain their current rate of losses before they're forced to retreat.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1565977656306409473

    Hopefully the supplies are still flowing in.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513
    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513
    Icarus said:

    As the ballot for his replacement ended at 5pm yesterday - the Conservative Party must now have the result. Why are we waiting until lunchtime on Monday for the result? When is it going to be leaked?

    As a tip from the Milliband v Milliband, one was whisked away by the party to work on stuff, the other was still at home in slippers.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,919

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    How much has Boris ever cared about the Conservatives as a party with a past before him and a future after him, as opposed to a vehicle for his personal ambition?
    How much has Boris cared for anyone or anything as opposed to a vehicle for his personal ambition?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,358
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    For those that are flowing, ORYX has been keeping track of verifiable losses of equipment in the war, for both sides. Its now up to 998 Russian tanks (all classes, and likely will be pass 1000 with in the next 24 hours. is there an appropriate way to mark this occasion?

    Link here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    When the latest batch of reports to be processed came in, I believe his comment was “FML”.
    Sorry if I'm showing my ignorance of the lexicon but In this context what does FML mean or stand for?
    He’s bemoaning the fact his work never ends. It stands for F*** my life

  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Do any of the PB war commentators have a view on whether the Portovaya compressor station (with its Siemens-supplied kit, and located 10 miles inside Russia from the Finnish border) was sabotaged?

    This is where according to Russian authorities an oil leak was discovered which, combined with the absence of maintenance help from Germany, has caused them to suspend the supply of gas along the Nordstream 1 pipeline to much of the rest of Europe - indefinitely.

    In short, this is supposed to be why your lights may soon go out (assuming you could afford to turn them on if the grid supply were still on): an "accident", during wartime, at a compressor plant very close to the border.

    Whoopsadaisy!

    Portovaya is on land that used to be in Finland. It's even closer to the border than Vyborg, once Finland's second city.

    Meanwhile, strange how AFAICT the US and Britain are still importing Russian uranium.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,125

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    edited September 3
    Love it - the Truss silliness has been clear enough, but the Sunak pitch in fairness is also weird

    Tory leadership election is weird. You have one candidate whose pitch is 'you know from the pandemic response, which I hated by the way, that I have the experience to deliver', while the other is 'the last three years were great. We need to change everything about the party'.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1565050045539524608?cxt=HHwWgIC9wa6ulrgrAAAA
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,480
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    The role that Johnson is best suited to is Party* Chair, giving boosters talks and fundraising on the rubber chicken circuit. A bit like hard work for him though, so he may prefer more renumerative after dinner speaking.

    * party in the political sense rather than wine and cheese!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513
    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,919
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    The role that Johnson is best suited to is Party* Chair, giving boosters talks and fundraising on the rubber chicken circuit. A bit like hard work for him though, so he may prefer more renumerative after dinner speaking.

    * party in the political sense rather than wine and cheese!
    So lines of coke and unwanted pinching?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,125
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,294
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    Since the SG has precisely f.all remit over energy policy or oil & gas extraction I'm not quite sure what your 'doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations' means.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,999
    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945
  • kle4 said:

    Love it - the Truss silliness has been clear enough, but the Sunak pitch in fairness is also weird

    Tory leadership election is weird. You have one candidate whose pitch is 'you know from the pandemic response, which I hated by the way, that I have the experience to deliver', while the other is 'the last three years were great. We need to change everything about the party'.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1565050045539524608?cxt=HHwWgIC9wa6ulrgrAAAA

    It's not totally bonkers, if you parse it as "I'll do the strictly necessary, but not an inch more."

    But even that little compromise with reality is not where the Conservatives are right now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    It's astounding
    Time is fleeting
    Madness takes its toll
    But listen closely
    Not for very much longer
    I've got to keep control

    As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

    From Monday - Thatcherism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
    Of course not, Boris always puts the party above his personal interests



  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
    That depends if privately he is only really in it for himself, not the Party.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,919

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    I don't know, a short period of JRM, IDS and Redwood in charge might see their views kicked to the forgotten past where they belong. Otherwise all Tory leaders are going to have to accommodate them. They have two years, probably less before it all collapses, and that period is going to be really bad whoever is in charge. Part of me is hoping that she goes all in with these lunatics and relics.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Dynamo said:

    Do any of the PB war commentators have a view on whether the Portovaya compressor station (with its Siemens-supplied kit, and located 10 miles inside Russia from the Finnish border) was sabotaged?

    This is where according to Russian authorities an oil leak was discovered which, combined with the absence of maintenance help from Germany, has caused them to suspend the supply of gas along the Nordstream 1 pipeline to much of the rest of Europe - indefinitely.

    In short, this is supposed to be why your lights may soon go out (assuming you could afford to turn them on if the grid supply were still on): an "accident", during wartime, at a compressor plant very close to the border.

    Whoopsadaisy!

    Portovaya is on land that used to be in Finland. It's even closer to the border than Vyborg, once Finland's second city.

    Meanwhile, strange how AFAICT the US and Britain are still importing Russian uranium.

    I have no 'knowledge' on this matter, so this is just speculation.

    That sead, if I was able to bet, and we would then find out for defiant, I would put every penny I had available on Russia deliberately disabling its planed/system and then saying we cant send oil/gas to Europe, but you cant complain because its because of yore actions in not sending us new/refurbished pumps/equipment.

    Why am I so confidant, about something I don't know?

    1) This is start out of the Kremlins go to play book, that has been done dozens of times before.
    2) It just happening to be the plant that is close to and visible form an EU boarder, is a big.
    3) Timing,
    4) It also played on the environmental consensus that some in the EU have, and as such is an attempt to divide the EU.

    The chance of the being Sabotage by a Ukrainian team I think is close to zero.

    but interested if others have thoughts/ideas
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    Since the SG has precisely f.all remit over energy policy or oil & gas extraction I'm not quite sure what your 'doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations' means.
    So you think the SG is wrong to oppose stuff like Cambo? To not build any new nuclear power stations? Aiui they could block them using planning laws at the moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
    Of course not, Boris always puts the party above his personal interests

    He shoudl tell that to his moaning supporters, who seem to be eager for the opposite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    Rudd likely made the 2013 election closer than Gillard would have however. The ALP were 14% behind in the final poll before Rudd ousted her
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,125
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    The role that Johnson is best suited to is Party* Chair, giving boosters talks and fundraising on the rubber chicken circuit. A bit like hard work for him though, so he may prefer more renumerative after dinner speaking.

    * party in the political sense rather than wine and cheese!
    Yep, the greatest Chairman the party never had, the worst PM they never didn't have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    edited September 3

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Pretty in character, they make a big deal of such things on their website. How well they deliver I could not say.

    We pay our colleagues as much as we can afford, rather than as little as we can get away with. In addition to receiving a basic wage, every single colleague is part of a bonus scheme relevant to their part of the business.

    We believe that sharing our profits with our colleagues is one of the keys to our success. We offer a wide variety of other benefits to our colleagues; from having your birthday off, to free to use holiday homes, we also offer you use of the company limousine if you get married, as well getting an extra £100 in your wages and a week off work! .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,294
    edited September 3
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    Since the SG has precisely f.all remit over energy policy or oil & gas extraction I'm not quite sure what your 'doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations' means.
    So you think the SG is wrong to oppose stuff like Cambo? To not build any new nuclear power stations? Aiui they could block them using planning laws at the moment.
    What proposed nuclear power stations are being blocked by Scottish planning laws at the moment? Which specific attempts by HMG to squeeze more oil and gas out of the North Sea have been thwarted by SG opposition?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,094

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
    The next GE will be Johnson vs Starmer and I will bet accordingly when next week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    Rudd likely made the 2013 election closer than Gillard would have however. The ALP were 14% behind in the final poll before Rudd ousted her
    Fair enough, but it didn't change the outcome. The days of people getting a second chance are over.

    If he's serious about sticking around he needs to rein in his fanboys, since even a supporter like Truss cannot bring him into the Cabinet at some point if it is well known he wants to take over again.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,531

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
    The next GE will be Johnson vs Starmer and I will bet accordingly when next week.
    I just can’t see it. I don’t think the Tories will eject Truss, there are enough of them in the parliamentary party to realise that opposition is coming and needed. The party has lost its way hugely.

    And even if the6 did evict Truss, they won’t go back to the liar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,125

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    I don't know, a short period of JRM, IDS and Redwood in charge might see their views kicked to the forgotten past where they belong. Otherwise all Tory leaders are going to have to accommodate them. They have two years, probably less before it all collapses, and that period is going to be really bad whoever is in charge. Part of me is hoping that she goes all in with these lunatics and relics.
    If you feel that this manifestation of the Tory Party, like Basil's car, needs a damn good thrashing, it's perfectly rational to hope she does do that.
  • I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    It's astounding
    Time is fleeting
    Madness takes its toll
    But listen closely
    Not for very much longer
    I've got to keep control

    As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

    From Monday - Thatcherism.
    Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

    Though more than enough insanity to go round.

    (And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,919
    kinabalu said:

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    I don't know, a short period of JRM, IDS and Redwood in charge might see their views kicked to the forgotten past where they belong. Otherwise all Tory leaders are going to have to accommodate them. They have two years, probably less before it all collapses, and that period is going to be really bad whoever is in charge. Part of me is hoping that she goes all in with these lunatics and relics.
    If you feel that this manifestation of the Tory Party, like Basil's car, needs a damn good thrashing, it's perfectly rational to hope she does do that.
    Well the Tory party is certainly fawlty.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    Since the SG has precisely f.all remit over energy policy or oil & gas extraction I'm not quite sure what your 'doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations' means.
    So you think the SG is wrong to oppose stuff like Cambo? To not build any new nuclear power stations? Aiui they could block them using planning laws at the moment.
    What proposed nuclear power stations are being blocked by Scottish planning laws at the moment? Which specific attempts by HMG to squeeze more oil and gas out of the North Sea have been thwarted by SG opposition?
    You need to decide whether Scotland's oil and gas is a relevant argument for Independence.

    You can't claim Scotland would be energy self-reliant while not actually using our resources.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513
    edited September 3
    Glancing at latest polls put up, Techne and Redfield showing widening gap on eve of new Leader.

    But I suggest it’s not the gap we should look at, but the Tory share, currently on average herded less than 33 so the coming bounce can be measured by how it goes above 33, to the 35s and 36s.

    Based on historical precedent, Will the coming bounce begin instantly next week or take a few weeks
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Morning all, i decided reluctantly to come home from Fort William, which really was rather glorious this week. It was nice not to give a crap for a few days given that they look like theyve managed to stitch us up with yet another winter of absolute misery. Have i missed much? Anyone HTML murder the shit out of anyone?
    Woolie has but one tip for you - shes not getting a bounce worth the name, and once we reach the usual bounce sweet spot (2 to 3 months), all hell will have broken loose as we spend every day awaiting national lights on, cooking permitted hour.
    Our winter national anthem should be a badly off key Ode to Joy mashed with Fat Les' Vindaloo
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,919

    kinabalu said:

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    I don't know, a short period of JRM, IDS and Redwood in charge might see their views kicked to the forgotten past where they belong. Otherwise all Tory leaders are going to have to accommodate them. They have two years, probably less before it all collapses, and that period is going to be really bad whoever is in charge. Part of me is hoping that she goes all in with these lunatics and relics.
    If you feel that this manifestation of the Tory Party, like Basil's car, needs a damn good thrashing, it's perfectly rational to hope she does do that.
    Well the Tory party is certainly fawlty.
    And Flowery Twats could be accurately used to describe Johnson and Truss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
    The next GE will be Johnson vs Starmer and I will bet accordingly when next week.
    I just can’t see it. I don’t think the Tories will eject Truss, there are enough of them in the parliamentary party to realise that opposition is coming and needed. The party has lost its way hugely.

    And even if the6 did evict Truss, they won’t go back to the liar.
    There just isn't time, the way I see it.

    May had no support for her principal policy and in effect lost control of parliament entirely as a result, yet it took several months for there to be a challenge, and a further 6-7 months before she was actually made to stand down.

    Boris rocketed from scandal to scandal relating to his personal conduct for 7-9 months before he faced a challenge and was then made to stand down.

    Each had a couple of years under their belts as leader.

    Truss will get a bit of a honeymoon among the party members at least, and whilst some of her ideas are crazy and her planned appointments include some terrible ones from my perspective they should please the party. She isn't notably incompetent amongst her peers.

    So even though her policies might make things worse, and even if they do not we are set for a terrible time, and the party may well remain in the doldrums poll wise, even if she had some minor scandals she's probably safe for at least a year before the rumblings truly start. And then it would take quite a while to come to a point of true challenge, since MPs are cautious, and suddenly you're into 2024 and if you switch leaders the new one has very little time to do anything before a GE, maximum 1 year.

    It's not IDS being removed relatively quickly in opposition, and even he got 2 years. Doing it to a PM in quicker than that seems unlikely.
  • BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

    The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,294
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    Since the SG has precisely f.all remit over energy policy or oil & gas extraction I'm not quite sure what your 'doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations' means.
    So you think the SG is wrong to oppose stuff like Cambo? To not build any new nuclear power stations? Aiui they could block them using planning laws at the moment.
    What proposed nuclear power stations are being blocked by Scottish planning laws at the moment? Which specific attempts by HMG to squeeze more oil and gas out of the North Sea have been thwarted by SG opposition?
    You need to decide whether Scotland's oil and gas is a relevant argument for Independence.

    You can't claim Scotland would be energy self-reliant while not actually using our resources.
    I don't 'need' to do anything, Sean.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    edited September 3
    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

    I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

    In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

    In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,662
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: third practice underway.

    And Piastri will join Norris at McLaren next year. Gasp!
  • StarryStarry Posts: 97
    It doesn't matter if Boris would win the poll with Tory members. Firstly, he has to get on the ballot. I just can't see Tory MPs selecting him as one of the last two.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    Off topic, but heartbreaking story in the Guardian today:
    'We had such trust, we feel such fools’: how shocking hospital mistakes led to our daughter’s death'
    I thought hospitals had improved!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
    The next GE will be Johnson vs Starmer and I will bet accordingly when next week.
    I just can’t see it. I don’t think the Tories will eject Truss, there are enough of them in the parliamentary party to realise that opposition is coming and needed. The party has lost its way hugely.

    And even if the6 did evict Truss, they won’t go back to the liar.
    If Labour looks to be heading for a majority under Truss another change is certainly possible and with Sunak likely well beaten in this leadership election Boris would be the obvious replacement.

    However providing Truss looks headed for a hung parliament still, even if the Tories majority is lost, she likely stays
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    Rudd likely made the 2013 election closer than Gillard would have however. The ALP were 14% behind in the final poll before Rudd ousted her
    Fair enough, but it didn't change the outcome. The days of people getting a second chance are over.

    If he's serious about sticking around he needs to rein in his fanboys, since even a supporter like Truss cannot bring him into the Cabinet at some point if it is well known he wants to take over again.
    The change likely saved some ALP MPs their seats even if not the overall outcome
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,892
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
    Of course not, Boris always puts the party above his personal interests



    Liked but for the wrong reason.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,050
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    For those that are flowing, ORYX has been keeping track of verifiable losses of equipment in the war, for both sides. Its now up to 998 Russian tanks (all classes, and likely will be pass 1000 with in the next 24 hours. is there an appropriate way to mark this occasion?

    Link here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    When the latest batch of reports to be processed came in, I believe his comment was “FML”.
    Sorry if I'm showing my ignorance of the lexicon but In this context what does FML mean or stand for?
    Apology unnecessary.
    It speaks well of you that you didn't know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    Starry said:

    It doesn't matter if Boris would win the poll with Tory members. Firstly, he has to get on the ballot. I just can't see Tory MPs selecting him as one of the last two.

    The same thing used to be said before he won (to the point some of his supporters back then whinged about the system denying the members a proper choice). Of course, that changed when it was clear only he was likely to win a GE.

    So the question is will things change to the point where he looks like a GE winner again, since it was losing that which did for him more than repeated scandals. And how would such a personal resurgence be demonstrated?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,662
    F1: short lap, so traffic likely to be a problem during the first session particularly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,969
    How predictable that Putin shuts down the gas pipeline at the start of September.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,288

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

    The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?
    Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

    I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

    Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,513

    I’m still absolutely horrified at the thought of Rees-Mogg as BEIS. Will be a divisive period of office

    It's astounding
    Time is fleeting
    Madness takes its toll
    But listen closely
    Not for very much longer
    I've got to keep control

    As both BJO and HY praised Boris for a jump to the left (couldn’t see it myself) here comes a clear step to the right…

    From Monday - Thatcherism.
    Presumably rather fewer pelvic thrusts.

    Though more than enough insanity to go round.

    (And don't diss Thatcherism. For most of her Premiership, Maggie was a model of moderation and pragmatism, certainly compared with what seems to be incoming.)
    Absolutely! Lady Thatcher would put taxes up in this situation like she did when she came into power - these tribute acts havn’t a clue how to do Thatcherism properly, with the pragmatism built in!

    But you have to concede Stu, it was economically and fiscally a dry ideology governing the UK, we arguably havn’t had since 1990. It was that I was referring to, especially feeling the winds of change compared to the tax raising cash splashing of Boris and Rishi.

    Any taxes cut can equate to something else cut to pay for it - but it’s only the tax cut that will be mentioned in the Emergency Fiscal Event end of the month.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    And let me make a bid for PB stupidest question of the year -

    Will he therefore be rooting for Truss to flop and big Labour poll leads?
    Of course not, Boris always puts the party above his personal interests



    Liked but for the wrong reason.
    I wondered what he'd been smoking; it's a bit early for drink!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    Rudd likely made the 2013 election closer than Gillard would have however. The ALP were 14% behind in the final poll before Rudd ousted her
    Fair enough, but it didn't change the outcome. The days of people getting a second chance are over.

    If he's serious about sticking around he needs to rein in his fanboys, since even a supporter like Truss cannot bring him into the Cabinet at some point if it is well known he wants to take over again.
    The change likely saved some ALP MPs their seats even if not the overall outcome
    Would you regard that as meaningful if it happened with the Tories here? I very much doubt that given your generally severe take on winning and losing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,478

    There has been a sudden glut on Twitter of videos showing TB2 strikes on Russian hardware, claimed to be on the Kherson front. Makes you wonder how long the Russians to the west of the river can sustain their current rate of losses before they're forced to retreat.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1565977656306409473

    The obvious thing to do would be to offer Russian soldiers free passage to the West, £5,000 each and a Playstation. It would be a lot cheaper than slinging all these missiles at them.
    There was some discussion of this on the Telegraph Ukraine podcast yesterday. They said it contributed to the end of WWI. Could be a factor that comes into play during a long cold winter on the front lines in Ukraine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

    I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

    In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

    In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.
    Amusingly, the story as told on the Timpson website itself omits mention of Uncle Geoffrey at all, nor is he mentioned among the list of former chairs.

    I bet he was not invited to family gatherings thereafter.

    https://www.timpson-group.co.uk/our-story/history/

    https://www.timpson-group.co.uk/our-story/meet-the-timpsons/
  • Glancing at latest polls put up, Techne and Redfield showing widening gap on eve of new Leader.

    But I suggest it’s not the gap we should look at, but the Tory share, currently on average herded less than 33 so the coming bounce can be measured by how it goes above 33, to the 35s and 36s.

    Based on historical precedent, Will the coming bounce begin instantly next week or take a few weeks

    Do we have a word for a negative bounce? A 'truss' perhaps?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,480
    kyf_100 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

    The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?
    Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

    I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

    Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

    Clogs to clogs over 3 generations is often true, but the Timpsons seem to be an exception.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,228
    edited September 3
    On topic, if Boris is installed as favorite in a new leadership market he will be the biggest and best lay since the great whore of Babylon.

    I might even come out of retirement to take advantage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    Glancing at latest polls put up, Techne and Redfield showing widening gap on eve of new Leader.

    But I suggest it’s not the gap we should look at, but the Tory share, currently on average herded less than 33 so the coming bounce can be measured by how it goes above 33, to the 35s and 36s.

    Based on historical precedent, Will the coming bounce begin instantly next week or take a few weeks

    Do we have a word for a negative bounce? A 'truss' perhaps?
    Trussing something up is already a thing, is it not?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,294
    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

    I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

    In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

    In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.
    I agree Timpson and his family seem like good eggs, though he was on Broadcasting House last Sunday and came away with some pretty disappointing back to the dawn of Thatcherism Trussian stuff about less government and freeing the economy to do its thing. Nobody's perfect I guess.
  • Only people who know nothing about running successful businesses think that Jacob Rees Mogg knows anything about creating a climate for businesses to succeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    Isn't family ownership put forward as a reason why German capitalism works?

    The reputation thing is interesting. None of us really know who owns/runs anything in the UK, so what's the incentive for a manager to be a good steward?
    Family ownership of companies is a terrible thing! Have we not seen Succession?!

    I can think of a couple of examples of companies where the offspring were not up to the job, leading to serious decline.

    Meritocracy over monarchy when it comes to business...

    Clogs to clogs over 3 generations is often true, but the Timpsons seem to be an exception.
    I recall this japanese company supposedly going for over 1000 years, though it is no longer independent and its a brief article so whether it still has anyone of the original family name involved who knows.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kongō_Gumi
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,050
    I have found a potential new publisher for @Leon 's writer friend.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/02/mag-weiss-kidsbooks-00053509
    Bongo the gorilla has a problem. Well, two of them. First, a group of hyenas armed with coconut cannons is invading his village and snatching the residents’ cupcakes. To make matters worse, Bongo wants to shoot the invaders with his own coconut cannon, but some of his peacenik animal neighbors want to outlaw all cannons, instead. When the cannon-control advocates get pelted with coconuts in a hyena attack, Bongo pulls out his arsenal and shows them the error of their ways. The best way to stop a bad cartoon animal with a gun is with a good cartoon animal with a gun.

    That’s the message, at least, in Paws Off My Cannon, a children’s book co-written by former National Rifle Association spokeswoman Dana Loesch and published by a year-old Texas company called Brave Books....

    ...Brave Books, with its growing catalog of brightly-colored paperbacks, isn’t aiming for nuanced arguments. Its goal is something bigger: to become a literary hub for the wee and anti-woke, searing a conservative viewpoint — and, sometimes, conservative talking points — into the youngest minds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,293

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

    I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

    In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

    In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.
    I agree Timpson and his family seem like good eggs, though he was on Broadcasting House last Sunday and came away with some pretty disappointing back to the dawn of Thatcherism Trussian stuff about less government and freeing the economy to do its thing. Nobody's perfect I guess.
    Seems like his heydey was in the early and mid 80s, probably a nostalgia thing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,128
    alex_ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/03/jacob-rees-mogg-blocking-major-uk-tourism-campaign

    Jesus Christ this short Truss administration is going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Even Johnson sort of knew not to give Rees-Mogg too much power, but it appears he has enough as it it.

    No administration with people like Jacob Rees-Mogg in it can be regarded as either serious or competent.

    It might be vaguely amusing to hear his plans for the introduction of the spinning jenny and establishment of mills in Manchester I suppose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,958
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson likely stays in the Commons until the next election at least. If Truss has a sustained poll bounce then he will become less relevant. However if Starmer takes a clear poll lead he will remain the Prince across the water

    Swapping the ousted person back in is unlikely to help. Look at Kevin Rudd. And given he was ousted over his personal conduct a lot of MPs are unlikely to want him back ever, even if Truss looks like losing.

    Boris and his fans need to stop desperately hoping for the Tories to fail, and think about how they can help the party (which does not appear to be his or their focus). Perhaps he could spend his time touring the Red Wall for Liz and try to regain some of the old magic up there?

    If he sits and pouts then either he doesn't care about the Tories winning if he does not get to lead them, or he actively wants them to fail as punishment.
    Rudd likely made the 2013 election closer than Gillard would have however. The ALP were 14% behind in the final poll before Rudd ousted her
    Fair enough, but it didn't change the outcome. The days of people getting a second chance are over.

    If he's serious about sticking around he needs to rein in his fanboys, since even a supporter like Truss cannot bring him into the Cabinet at some point if it is well known he wants to take over again.
    The change likely saved some ALP MPs their seats even if not the overall outcome
    Would you regard that as meaningful if it happened with the Tories here? I very much doubt that given your generally severe take on winning and losing.
    It arguably happened when Howard replaced IDS
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,480
    Cyclefree said:

    alex_ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/03/jacob-rees-mogg-blocking-major-uk-tourism-campaign

    Jesus Christ this short Truss administration is going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Even Johnson sort of knew not to give Rees-Mogg too much power, but it appears he has enough as it it.

    No administration with people like Jacob Rees-Mogg in it can be regarded as either serious or competent.

    It might be vaguely amusing to hear his plans for the introduction of the spinning jenny and establishment of mills in Manchester I suppose.
    Do you think he will be for or against?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,947
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    alex_ said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/03/jacob-rees-mogg-blocking-major-uk-tourism-campaign

    Jesus Christ this short Truss administration is going to be an absolute sh*tshow. Even Johnson sort of knew not to give Rees-Mogg too much power, but it appears he has enough as it it.

    No administration with people like Jacob Rees-Mogg in it can be regarded as either serious or competent.

    It might be vaguely amusing to hear his plans for the introduction of the spinning jenny and establishment of mills in Manchester I suppose.
    Do you think he will be for or against?
    Definitely against. I look forward to his legislation to reintroduce the Henrician poor law and crack down on sturdy beggars.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,050
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    @StuartDickson Scotland has plenty of energy if the the wind is blowing

    That's why the new pumped storage station at Loch Lochy is interesting. Torness will close by 2030, not sure what the plan is with Peterhead.

    You're applying the Scotland's geographical share of NS oil and gas doesn't really belong to them criterion I assume.
    No, just pointing out that energy provision in Scotland in inextricably linked to that in RUK, unless we come up with pumped storage or lagoons.

    The SG (as a green/SNP coalition) is a bit confused on the subject. Oil/gas = good for Scotland, but we are doing everything we can to avoid getting it out the ground or using it in our power stations.
    It's quite extricate, given a little time and money, should it ever become necessary.

    The reality is that an independent Scotland would find it rather easier than rUK to become energy self sufficient. And more likely to be exporting energy to us down the road.

    As far as extricable is concerned, GW interconnect with Norway - as we have now - is only a billion or so to construct.

    There are good arguments against independence; this isn't really one of them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,480

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    This is a great idea (and great PR):

    "Our colleagues get an extra day off when their kids have their first day at school, so you may notice a different colleague in your local Timpson shop next week, helping cover for this important day in a families life."

    https://twitter.com/JamesTCobbler/status/1565977459664850945

    Timpson's, is a great company for many reasons,

    Amongst other things it devolves and lot of power/decition making alterity to the lowest level possible.
    Is consistently ranked as the best or near best of all UK large company's. for looking after there employees.
    Actively recruits ex-convicts to give them a second chance in life.

    It's also the largest UK company still owned by the founding family, and one of the last vestiges of what I consider proper capitalism, where entrappers put there name on the company, and their reputation and the companies reputation become one and the same.
    I note they tend to have in their stores little books on fostering produced by the chairman's wife. Strong family impact on the company it seems.

    I do like the company history on wikipedia - seems like a black sheep of the family ousted the current chair's dad and sold it off, until the true heir reacquired it.

    In the early-1960s, family member and graduate of the University of Nottingham John Timpson returned from a post-graduate management training scheme to join the family-owned business, becoming director responsible for buying in 1970.[3] In 1973, after John's father Anthony was ousted as chairman by his uncle Geoffrey, the company was acquired for £28,600,000 by United Drapery Stores.[2] John stayed with the firm, became managing director of leather and fur retailers Swears & Wells, then in 1975; appointed managing director of the former family business, William Timpson Ltd.[3]

    In 1983, John led a £42,000,000 management buyout of William Timpson from then-owners Hanson Trust plc.
    I agree Timpson and his family seem like good eggs, though he was on Broadcasting House last Sunday and came away with some pretty disappointing back to the dawn of Thatcherism Trussian stuff about less government and freeing the economy to do its thing. Nobody's perfect I guess.
    It is the Charles Dickens approach to social progression. The problem is not seen as the system so much as the need for wealthy benefactors to lift up the poor.
  • kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    On Topic betting post. If there is a market on Boris leading Tories into next election it is worth a flutter.

    It wouldn’t even be much of a surprise, it’s the sort of thing we except to happen next in UK politics, since Brexit reset dividing lines and heartlands, this age of populism, like Boris and Corbyn. Corbyn survived the rebellion of his parliamentary party easily by getting on the ballot, so would Boris if he was in this final two.

    It could well be that it’s not just the Tory membership who prefer Boris than Truss as PM, Boris may even be the Tories best hope at retaining voters in the marginals.

    God that's a downer of a post - esp since it's not totally wrong.
    Thank you 😆
    The next GE will be Johnson vs Starmer and I will bet accordingly when next week.
    I just can’t see it. I don’t think the Tories will eject Truss, there are enough of them in the parliamentary party to realise that opposition is coming and needed. The party has lost its way hugely.

    And even if the6 did evict Truss, they won’t go back to the liar.
    There just isn't time, the way I see it.

    May had no support for her principal policy and in effect lost control of parliament entirely as a result, yet it took several months for there to be a challenge, and a further 6-7 months before she was actually made to stand down.

    Boris rocketed from scandal to scandal relating to his personal conduct for 7-9 months before he faced a challenge and was then made to stand down.

    Each had a couple of years under their belts as leader.

    Truss will get a bit of a honeymoon among the party members at least, and whilst some of her ideas are crazy and her planned appointments include some terrible ones from my perspective they should please the party. She isn't notably incompetent amongst her peers.

    So even though her policies might make things worse, and even if they do not we are set for a terrible time, and the party may well remain in the doldrums poll wise, even if she had some minor scandals she's probably safe for at least a year before the rumblings truly start. And then it would take quite a while to come to a point of true challenge, since MPs are cautious, and suddenly you're into 2024 and if you switch leaders the new one has very little time to do anything before a GE, maximum 1 year.

    It's not IDS being removed relatively quickly in opposition, and even he got 2 years. Doing it to a PM in quicker than that seems unlikely.
    MPs don't care about policies and whether they work. Well, OK, they do, but what really panics them is the prospects of losing their own seats. Boris was tolerated although often condemned from the backbenches as he careered from lie to lie, from gate to gate. What pushed him out was losing two by-elections, one to the LibDems and one to Labour.

    If Truss's policies don't work, well, that's a shame. If Labour has a big poll lead and the hypotheticals show others doing better, or if she continues to lose by-elections, Liz Truss is toast.
This discussion has been closed.