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Now the big story will be what he does next – politicalbetting.com

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  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174
    Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    In February, the best Soho restaurants will be featuring a dozen baked beans; heated for a supplement.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,033
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    I wonder why Father Calv crowbarred paedophillia into a tweet about transgender issues?



    Only joking, I know exactly why he did!

    Actually there is genuine concern about why some people may be keen to encourage the use of puberty blockers. It is worthy of consideration.
    Genuine concerns about x, words to define the age we live in.

    I know we don't see eye to eye on much UD, but Babylon Berlin is utterly FAB and thanks again for the recommendation.
    👍 Cool. I admit to have becoming totally fanboi about the series to the point of being evangelical, but glad if I've made at least one convert!
    I liked Rings of Power a lot. Am I alone here?

    First of all, the elements we can all agree on? There’s nothing wrong with the excellent soundtrack and score, use of music and sound was good. And the Title Sequence is quite excellent too. I enjoyed the visual spectacle - the hidden Hobbit village coming alive was very good.

    Pacing we could argue over. I thought the first episode had a good pace. There was discussion here last week, horror tales tend be short, if it’s long then it becomes more than horror - similar here in that making Rings of Power have pace, action and suspense it has to move away from pure Tolkienism - indeed hiding from, and the battle with the big Orc, sequence Spielberg would have been proud of.

    And whilst some of the script was a little lame, some performances were very good. Markella Kavenagh steals acting honours as adventurous Hobbit Nori - Ismael Córdova as buttoned up Elf Arondir likeable too.

    Too early to say about Characterisation just two episodes in. Accents. Maybe a bit like Derry Girls doing Midsummer Nights Dream at times?

    If Tolkien purists were to argue it’s not true to Tolkien enough, I would argue it builds upon what Tolkien offered, mankind fighting for Morgoth so held in suspicion for example. For purists I’m reminded about what Stu from Romford said about ism’s earlier today. How do the purists know that the man himself wouldn’t watch this and enjoy it?

    Loved Galadriel’s warrior eye make up when she took down the troll, I’m going to do mine like that. 😍
    You're also the only remaining fan of Yorkshire County Cricket Club. That's a warning light about your judgment :smile:

    What would Tolkien have thought? Well, there are a couple of answers to that. First of all, he really hated people making changes to his ideas. In fact he vetoed several possible film productions of the Lord of the rings because they wanted to alter plot points, commenting, 'I don't mind people leaving things out, but I wish they wouldn't change things.' Therefore, we can probably say that he would be pretty pissed off with what's been done here in terms of his Legendarium.

    However, there is another side to this. The character of Galadriel in particular changed a great deal as he was writing about her. So, for example, in the fellowship of the ring she describes herself as having passed over the mountains of the fall of Nargothrond or Gondolin to join Celeborn who is that point appears to have been a Nandorin elf. However by the time he wrote the appendices he changed his mind and Celeborn and Galadriel ran the kingdom of south Lindon for many years after the end of the second age having met in Doriath.

    Yet another version of her backstory in unfinished tales shows her and Celeborn as the Lord and Lady of Eregion having founded it sometime after the end of the first stage.

    Now, anyone of these could make an excellent story which makes it deeply puzzling that the writers have decided to ditch the whole bloody lot and come up with something totally different but wildly inconsistent with the texts and in fact not very convincing on the first couple of episodes.

    Which is roughly why I'm not very impressed with them.
    The thing is: I really don't care what Tolkien would have thought. I want an entertaining story, well told. Perhaps there were reasons for the changes; perhaps not. It's a series *inspired* by his writing, not a word-for-word reciting of the story.

    In the same way the TV series 'Elementary' had very little connection with Conan Doyle's stories, but was still far more faithful than the BBC's Sherlock.
    Perhaps. But so far, I haven't found this especially entertaining. Certainly less so than any of the ideas they could have picked up and run with from Tolkien's writing.

    I've watched an episode and a half. It's unlikely I'll watch the rest.
    It's not entertaining? Then it's like the Silmarillion. Or even LotR.
    If you don't like either of them, then why are you even watching it?
    I didn't say I didn't like LotR: just that it's not massively entertaining - to me, at least. There's some brilliant world-building and characters, but a much better storyteller could have taken his worlds and characters and written more entertaining prose. And told the same stories in half the words...
    The characters? Really? The ones that change from chapter to chapter according to the needs of the plot, or the ones that only appear in one chapter?

    It's the plot and the setting that are key. Lose those, and the whole thing vanishes.

    The adaptations invariably lose 50% of it. This one is no exception.
    Yes, and I mean the main characters.

    I fear the problem is an old one, and one that I suffer from too: if you like a book too much, *no* adaptation can match it.

    But the opposite can also be true: I've currently got 'Stardust' on in the background as I do some work. I love this film, and have seen it many times. Yet when I read Gaiman's original book, it wasn't a patch on the film. If I'd read the book first, I'd probably feel differently.
  • New Poll Thread

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    Dystopian indeed. It doesnt take much reading between the lines from a September announcement of a Jan to Mar subsidy of bus fares so people can afford to get to work to work out just how much shit we are in. Expect many more such things being announced, get your freezer stocked and buy a new kettle.
    I invested in 2 very nice hoodies in Scotland. Toasty.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Eabhal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Eabhal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One for @Leon -

    https://cumbriacrack.com/2022/08/30/lake-district-mountain-rescue-team-warning-over-what3words/

    These guys are volunteers and know what they are doing. Mountains need to be taken seriously.

    Hmm! Glad to see they like best a map and OS reference. Despite the collective wisdom of much of PB.
    Christ, not this again.

    hedgehog.pig.toad is susceptible to about 10 errors (plurals, big for pig, towed). gridref 342546 is susceptible to 900,000 errors because no combination of 6 digits is "not a real number." It is not controversial which is the better way of communicating a position. If Keswick Mountain Rescue Team are too thick to recognise this I must remember not to get lost in Keswick.
    They're volunteers. They are very good at what they do. Sometimes they get horribly injured trying to rescue people who don't listen to their advice.

    Edit: indeed they mention the app I use, which is exactly the same as what3words but works for Mountain Rescue. OS locate.
    Yes their bravery is not in question, but that is not the point. It's a story about not just reading a position off a phone, dressed up as a story about one phone based system being better than another when it patently isn't. And if what3words doesn't "work for them" they need to retire as being not fit for purpose.
    The story was that the what3words location was communicated incorrectly but was close enough to be a credible location. And this is happening regularly, so something is going badly wrong.

    Why? Dunno. But I'd listen to the the poor people having to put up with it.
    Back when I worked in the oil industry, the idiot who had created the internal company catalogue of stuff hadn’t put any error checking in the codes. So basically any 5 (I think it was five) digit number would get you *something*.

    So a photocopier was 1 digit from being a large piece of drilling equipment….
    Yes, but such situations are an occasional bug in w3w and a planned feature of grid references, where 123456 is spookily next door to 123455 and 123457 and 124456. and so on.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,985

    The Times reports that Truss is planning a bonfire of employee rights legislation under new Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    “One Conservative source said that Boris Johnson vetoed (previous) plans because they would have gone against his pledge in the Brexit referendum not to strip workers of rights, but Truss was not bound by such pledges.”

    Rather than resembling the Blessed Margaret, Truss is going to end up like Edward Heath. Elected on a radical agenda but undermined by the Unions, inflation and oil prices.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,819

    Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    Oysters? Like consuming a mixture of phlegm and jizz.
    Probably need to find a better Oyster supplier, stop swallowing your phlegm or find healthier chaps to suck off?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,024

    Out of the frying pan into the fire, and back into the frying pan again! Has such a thing ever happened?

    Wrt what?
  • Interesting story in The Times: https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1566112128418955271?t=9UP7wO-B2MDrBxcL7ZS-Sw&s=19

    Proposing a 50%+1 majority *of the electorate* for any future Sindy bid

    I think this is a great idea, but frankly needed to have been implemented from the start of our dalliance with referenda. It's blatantly undemocratic to say "simple majority of votes cast" is ok for Brexit and now demand higher for Scexit.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I hereby inaugurate the annual @Dura_Ace Hydraulic Stamp Trophy, given to the commenter who manages to comment despite being significantly injured or severely ill as he or she types. Bonus points for the most spectacular injuries or incapacitation

    Anyone who actually dies while commenting gets a Lifetime Achievement Award

    My knee's playing up.
    And quite a few PBers have aching wrists.
    Heh. I started posting in earnest during post-surgery boredom. Not sure if that counts.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    Oysters are one of the best things in life.
    There’s a place in Grand Central Station of all places which does them pretty cheap and very good.

    Not my final supper (that would be vitello tonnato) but close.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,482
    HYUFD said:

    Labour lead slashed to 4 points with Opinium

    Labour 38%
    Conservatives 34%
    LDs 12%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1566138965559652352?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Yes the next Opinium is a Truss Conservatives lead. Opinium's swing back factor methodology should do the trick.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,024

    Interesting story in The Times: https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1566112128418955271?t=9UP7wO-B2MDrBxcL7ZS-Sw&s=19

    Proposing a 50%+1 majority *of the electorate* for any future Sindy bid

    I think this is a great idea, but frankly needed to have been implemented from the start of our dalliance with referenda. It's blatantly undemocratic to say "simple majority of votes cast" is ok for Brexit and now demand higher for Scexit.

    Brexit is in the past, this is in the future. We can only make decisions for the future.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174

    Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    Oysters? Like consuming a mixture of phlegm and jizz.
    Is that an expert opinion?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,058
    edited September 3
    Truss considering not replacing the 48 hour maximum working week in UK law when all remaining EU regulations are scrapped next year and also not renewing the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday a year plus Bank Holidays. This is the first sign of the firmly Thatcherite government Truss will lead in economic terms

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566018961875079169?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174

    New Poll Thread

    Every bloody time I post something, this happens! :s
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,170

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    I wonder why Father Calv crowbarred paedophillia into a tweet about transgender issues?



    Only joking, I know exactly why he did!

    Actually there is genuine concern about why some people may be keen to encourage the use of puberty blockers. It is worthy of consideration.
    Genuine concerns about x, words to define the age we live in.

    I know we don't see eye to eye on much UD, but Babylon Berlin is utterly FAB and thanks again for the recommendation.
    👍 Cool. I admit to have becoming totally fanboi about the series to the point of being evangelical, but glad if I've made at least one convert!
    I liked Rings of Power a lot. Am I alone here?

    First of all, the elements we can all agree on? There’s nothing wrong with the excellent soundtrack and score, use of music and sound was good. And the Title Sequence is quite excellent too. I enjoyed the visual spectacle - the hidden Hobbit village coming alive was very good.

    Pacing we could argue over. I thought the first episode had a good pace. There was discussion here last week, horror tales tend be short, if it’s long then it becomes more than horror - similar here in that making Rings of Power have pace, action and suspense it has to move away from pure Tolkienism - indeed hiding from, and the battle with the big Orc, sequence Spielberg would have been proud of.

    And whilst some of the script was a little lame, some performances were very good. Markella Kavenagh steals acting honours as adventurous Hobbit Nori - Ismael Córdova as buttoned up Elf Arondir likeable too.

    Too early to say about Characterisation just two episodes in. Accents. Maybe a bit like Derry Girls doing Midsummer Nights Dream at times?

    If Tolkien purists were to argue it’s not true to Tolkien enough, I would argue it builds upon what Tolkien offered, mankind fighting for Morgoth so held in suspicion for example. For purists I’m reminded about what Stu from Romford said about ism’s earlier today. How do the purists know that the man himself wouldn’t watch this and enjoy it?

    Loved Galadriel’s warrior eye make up when she took down the troll, I’m going to do mine like that. 😍
    You're also the only remaining fan of Yorkshire County Cricket Club. That's a warning light about your judgment :smile:

    What would Tolkien have thought? Well, there are a couple of answers to that. First of all, he really hated people making changes to his ideas. In fact he vetoed several possible film productions of the Lord of the rings because they wanted to alter plot points, commenting, 'I don't mind people leaving things out, but I wish they wouldn't change things.' Therefore, we can probably say that he would be pretty pissed off with what's been done here in terms of his Legendarium.

    However, there is another side to this. The character of Galadriel in particular changed a great deal as he was writing about her. So, for example, in the fellowship of the ring she describes herself as having passed over the mountains of the fall of Nargothrond or Gondolin to join Celeborn who is that point appears to have been a Nandorin elf. However by the time he wrote the appendices he changed his mind and Celeborn and Galadriel ran the kingdom of south Lindon for many years after the end of the second age having met in Doriath.

    Yet another version of her backstory in unfinished tales shows her and Celeborn as the Lord and Lady of Eregion having founded it sometime after the end of the first stage.

    Now, anyone of these could make an excellent story which makes it deeply puzzling that the writers have decided to ditch the whole bloody lot and come up with something totally different but wildly inconsistent with the texts and in fact not very convincing on the first couple of episodes.

    Which is roughly why I'm not very impressed with them.
    The thing is: I really don't care what Tolkien would have thought. I want an entertaining story, well told. Perhaps there were reasons for the changes; perhaps not. It's a series *inspired* by his writing, not a word-for-word reciting of the story.

    In the same way the TV series 'Elementary' had very little connection with Conan Doyle's stories, but was still far more faithful than the BBC's Sherlock.
    Perhaps. But so far, I haven't found this especially entertaining. Certainly less so than any of the ideas they could have picked up and run with from Tolkien's writing.

    I've watched an episode and a half. It's unlikely I'll watch the rest.
    What’s all this I’m missing? I only popped on for the Opinium.

    “ You're also the only remaining fan of Yorkshire County Cricket Club. That's a warning light about your judgment “

    Who woke you up grumpy old Gandalf. 🤣.

    Well I’m enjoying how they have made it suspenseful, mysterious and a visual and auditory charm to wallow in. And that’s even before the characters and storyline builds.

    Most of Tolkiens work is a historical and mythical mishmash anyway, hardly original with so much copied from the Edda and then changed to be or mean something else, so Tolkien purists can’t be too Poe faced about the effort put in here in my honest opinion.
    The only bit that really annoyed me so far was the implied trans (ha) oceanic swimming thing.

    That and maybe the dropping the Ban of the Valar on certain people rocking up in Valinor.

    The way the Two Trees and their destruction was done was very fine - clever use of a shadow to suggest Morgoth, without getting into the issue of them not having rights to the First Age writings.

    Some interesting ideas in the story - will be interesting to see where they go with it. And how the Lord Of Gifts gets brought in…
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605

    Interesting story in The Times: https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1566112128418955271?t=9UP7wO-B2MDrBxcL7ZS-Sw&s=19

    Proposing a 50%+1 majority *of the electorate* for any future Sindy bid

    I think this is a great idea, but frankly needed to have been implemented from the start of our dalliance with referenda. It's blatantly undemocratic to say "simple majority of votes cast" is ok for Brexit and now demand higher for Scexit.

    I agree that this is a good idea.

    I also am of long-standing belief that Scots resident outside Scotland should be able to vote in any referendum. I honestly don’t know what effect that would have, but it would mean Stuart Dickson having a vote, for example.

    Brexit was a constitutional abortion.
    Brexit will only be successful if enables democratic renewal, which includes acknowledgement that the referendum process itself was debauched.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605
    HYUFD said:

    Truss considering not replacing the 48 hour maximum working week in UK law when all remaining EU regulations are scrapped next year and also not renewing the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday a year plus Bank Holidays. This is the first sign of the firmly Thatcherite government Truss will lead in economic terms

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566018961875079169?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Workers need to work longer to pay for pensioner’s triple lock.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174
    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    I can’t understand why so many Scots are so brainwashed that less that 60% of Scots think that England can run Scotland better that Scotland can. Maybe it’s all the English setters skewing the will of Scots.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605

    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    I can’t understand why so many Scots are so brainwashed that less that 60% of Scots think that England can run Scotland better that Scotland can. Maybe it’s all the English setters skewing the will of Scots.
    Presumably because the English don’t actually run Scotland.

    Not that the current setup is ideal.
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour lead slashed to 4 points with Opinium

    Labour 38%
    Conservatives 34%
    LDs 12%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1566138965559652352?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Yes the next Opinium is a Truss Conservatives lead. Opinium's swing back factor methodology should do the trick.
    Not necessarily. After all, a lot of the swing we've seen recently has been Conservative to Don't Know / Not Saying, and my understanding is that Opinium's processing sweeps a lot of that back into the Conservative columm. Hence the lack of Opinium response to recent events.
    stodge said:

    The Times reports that Truss is planning a bonfire of employee rights legislation under new Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    “One Conservative source said that Boris Johnson vetoed (previous) plans because they would have gone against his pledge in the Brexit referendum not to strip workers of rights, but Truss was not bound by such pledges.”

    Rather than resembling the Blessed Margaret, Truss is going to end up like Edward Heath. Elected on a radical agenda but undermined by the Unions, inflation and oil prices.
    Heath or a mediocre Callaghan? After all, Callaghan was a substantial figure who was just in the wrong place at the wrong time and got drowned in a deluge he didn't really cause or control.

    Truss ticks one of those boxes.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174

    Interesting story in The Times: https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1566112128418955271?t=9UP7wO-B2MDrBxcL7ZS-Sw&s=19

    Proposing a 50%+1 majority *of the electorate* for any future Sindy bid

    I think this is a great idea, but frankly needed to have been implemented from the start of our dalliance with referenda. It's blatantly undemocratic to say "simple majority of votes cast" is ok for Brexit and now demand higher for Scexit.

    It is a great idea, so much so that the Brexit referendum should be rerun on that basis.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174

    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    I can’t understand why so many Scots are so brainwashed that less that 60% of Scots think that England can run Scotland better that Scotland can. Maybe it’s all the English setters skewing the will of Scots.
    Presumably because the English don’t actually run Scotland.

    Not that the current setup is ideal.
    Count up the number of English MPs. Count up the number of Scots MPs. Count up the number of English cabinet ministers. Count up the number of Scots cabinet ministers. Consider the numbers. Now revise your comment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,058
    Truss' new government to lift the fracking ban within days

    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1566075534295146496?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,058

    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    I can’t understand why so many Scots are so brainwashed that less that 60% of Scots think that England can run Scotland better that Scotland can. Maybe it’s all the English setters skewing the will of Scots.
    Scots already run most Scottish domestic policy anyway, Westminster only runs Scottish defence, foreign policy and some taxation mainly
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,174
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    I can’t understand why so many Scots are so brainwashed that less that 60% of Scots think that England can run Scotland better that Scotland can. Maybe it’s all the English setters skewing the will of Scots.
    Scots already run most Scottish domestic policy anyway, Westminster only runs Scottish defence, foreign policy and some taxation mainly
    Taxation is quite an important exclusion, on which other policies are dependent.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,326

    Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    In February, the best Soho restaurants will be featuring a dozen baked beans; heated for a supplement.
    Bring yer own toothpick
  • Leon said:

    Oysters for lunch - in a very bustling soho - with a well-informed friend who predicts a truly dystopian winter

    On the other hand, I have discovered Nat King Cole’s version of A Nightingale Sang in Berkeley Square

    And the oysters? The oysters, you ask?

    Two dozen Carlingfords. Delicious

    In February, the best Soho restaurants will be featuring a dozen baked beans; heated for a supplement.
    Bring yer own toothpick
    Don't waste that toothpick; it's valuable fuel.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,665

    HYUFD said:

    Truss considering not replacing the 48 hour maximum working week in UK law when all remaining EU regulations are scrapped next year and also not renewing the guaranteed 4 weeks holiday a year plus Bank Holidays. This is the first sign of the firmly Thatcherite government Truss will lead in economic terms

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1566018961875079169?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Workers need to work longer to pay for pensioner’s triple lock.
    I was going to say the same thing - the elderly need us to pay for them
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Is there an Opinium at eight?

    The last was a shocker, Lab 39 Con 31.

    I am normally excellent at predicting this one. I reckon despite other conventional polls showing Tory’s drifting, this poll will close the gap 38 to 33, correcting too low Con swingback score last time and likely waking BJO up. 🙂.

    Its 4 points Rabbit, 38 34

    Con 34% (+3)
    Lab 38% (-1)
    Lib Dem 12% (+2)
    Green 6% (-1)
    She was pretty close, though. Well done, @MoonRabbit!
    There was too much movement in the last one, and 31 too low for an adjusted swing back total, so it was easy to feel something like this. Thanks. 🙂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited September 3

    HYUFD said:

    Labour lead slashed to 4 points with Opinium

    Labour 38%
    Conservatives 34%
    LDs 12%

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1566138965559652352?s=20&t=bcYiechy4LAcRQXuuFY1vw

    Yes the next Opinium is a Truss Conservatives lead. Opinium's swing back factor methodology should do the trick.
    You’re presuming the Truss government lasts two weeks 😆

    It depends how their mechanism works. The Tories didn’t get 34 in this poll from respondents - logically speaking it’s not whatever they tell you plus the same figure each month lumped on, because historically speaking there is a point you get less swing back, say you polling 46% you may actually not achieve that in actual votes, so the methodology had to be the higher you poll the more the swingback is inside that poll doesn’t need so much added on whatever the magic figure is the closer you get to the less the swingback helps you.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,573
    HYUFD said:

    A Truss government to introduce a new Referendum Act requiring half the Scottish electorate not just a majority to vote for independence before it would be allowed. 60% of Scots too would have to back indyref2 in polls consistently for a year before the UK government would even consider allowing it

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-trusss-team-mull-bill-to-wreck-indyref2-campaign-hhnbmqjck

    Not a good idea imo. People tend to be quite contrary. If they'd done this for Brexit, more people would have voted for it and it would have passed.

    More charm, less offensive is the way to success.
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