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BoJo goes next week but what then? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    On that point, I would wonder why his solicitor, who will charge, is following this up, rather his insurer, who would do it for free.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    edited September 1
    I have just hit a prompt motherlode. Sublime Diffusion is churning out BEAUTIFUL images
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 515
    algarkirk said:

    This article in the Spectator at least tries to achieve some sort of understanding about Truss economics; so is useful.

    Summary: cut tax, borrow more at higher interest rates, do loads of what we attacked Labour for doing. Looks disastrous.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trussonomics-a-beginners-guide

    The bit about housing is particularly disheartening. The Tories have a manifesto commitment to build much more housing. Truss is, we are told, a vocal Yimby and in favour of planning reform. And yet the interviewee talks vaguely of putting something in the manifesto not for the next election but for the election after that!

    "Do the easy bits and shy away from the hard bits" is not politically principled or good government IMHO.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    edited September 1
    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    @Cookie

    A few years ago, in Miami, I was reversing (very slowly and carefully) from a car park space only to feel a slight bump at the rear. To my amazement a car was in the back of me. I'm dead careful and was puzzled as to how the bump happened.

    The other driver was aggressive - adamant I had reversed into him although for the accident to have happened he must have equally driven forward into me (with much better visibility of course). He tried to get $100 out of me on the spot and I refused. There was no damage to my (rental) car and he alleged minor damage (picking broken glass off the ground). I noticed that his car was as old as the hills and had multiple dents.

    The police came and he immediately was on to them giving his version, following which I calmly gave mine. We went on our way and on return to UK I got a call from the insurance company confirming they were paying out.

    On reflection I am convinced this was an organised scam. And reading your post reminded me of it and I'm wondering whether you have been similarly scammed.
  • algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Me likey. The untidy red deletion of the c-bomb is my work. Don’t want the ban hammer.

    And like all the famous bands, he'll be back on tour again within two years.
    Just reprising the old hits for cash, too.
    Trouble for the Conservatives is that their fanbase is increasingly elderly and relying on nostalgia as the elixir of lost youth as well.
    We used to joke that Bozo would be the end of the Tory party - given the forthcoming crisis I really believe the Tory party will be doomed unless Truss comes up with a decent plan next week...
    Ever since I've taken an interest in politics, I've heard repeated predictions of the end of the Conservative or Labour parties. It never happens.
    There's a second time for everything, though. And the Conservatives have set themselves a stinker of a problem to solve demographically.

    It's always been the case that people get more right-wing on average as they get older. But since about 2016, the effect has become huge. Really huge.

    I like this set of graphs because it explains so much, but I hate it because I wish it weren't this way;




    The Conservatives really need to do something to appeal to people who haven't made a pile by buying a house cheaply a couple of decades ago. At the moment, they don't seem to be even trying.
    Not too much though, on that graph Blair and New Labour even won over 65s in 1997 as well as every other age group in the Tories worst defeat since 1832
    That's not the point I'm making though.

    Up to 2015, there's a fairly gentle gradient on the lines- the Conservative share goes up by 10 to 15 percentage points from school leavers to coffin dodgers. The line bobbed up and down from one election to the next, but the Conservatives were competitive with young voters and Labour were competitive with old voters.

    Between 2015 and 2017, something changed. Now the profile is about a 50 percentage point change over the lifespan of man. We know about the Conservative success at picking up older Red Wall voters, but it's already come at the expense of repelling younger voters.

    That's new, and it means that the Conservatives will have to run awfully fast to keep ahead of the Grim Reaper. They have a good record of reinvention, but it ain't going to be easy.
    This issue is fascinating as well as troubling. And there is more to draw attention to.

    1) Labour had appealed to the over 65s but have stopped doing so. Why?

    2) The extremes occur in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 the Tories had relatively shafted/alienated the old with their nonsense on social care, and ran the worst campaign ever but still did well with that group. It is impossible to conclude anything except these freak outturns are Brexit and Jezza related.

    The shift had started between 2010-15. At the 2015GE the propensity to vote Tory with age was almost twice as strong as it had been in any previous election. So that would suggest it was post-financial crash austerity that created the divide, and Brexit only reinforced it.
    That's plausible. After all, austerity protected healthcare spending and the triple lock was relatively good for pensions.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    You got a solicitor's letter when the accident was only this morning? He didnt hang about.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    On that point, I would wonder why his solicitor, who will charge, is following this up, rather his insurer, who would do it for free.
    I'd also wonder whether (a) the letter/email came from the solicitor direct, and (b) whether the solicitor exists.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    Will defer to any advice tendered by qualified English legal eagles.

    HOWEVER, suggest that you
    a) report accident pronto;
    b) contact your regular solicitor OR a reasonably-competent ambulance chaser ASAP, with job one being to get your version of events on record.

    Sounds like you are dealing with a Class A a-hole. Fact that you may well be able to demonstrate via his past record, in addition to present highly-dubious conduct.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    On that point, I would wonder why his solicitor, who will charge, is following this up, rather his insurer, who would do it for free.
    Yes puzzling, unless he is trying to preserve a NCB or is uninsured
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    Leon said:

    I have just hit a prompt motherlode. Sublime Diffusion is churning out BEAUTIFUL images

    Just upload them, remove the: <img src=" bits from fore and aft of the code, and they'll appear here as links. Those who want to be wowed can click, those who want to avoid can avoid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited September 1
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    On that point, I would wonder why his solicitor, who will charge, is following this up, rather his insurer, who would do it for free.
    Yes puzzling, unless he is trying to preserve a NCB or is uninsured
    If he's genuinely not admitting guilt there would be no reason to think his NCB is at risk.

    And since Cookie's insurers will contact his anyway, if he has them, nothing will be gained by going elsewhere.

    All in all, I'm thinking if I were in @Cookie 's shoes I'd be calling the police right now, if only to cover myself.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318

    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)

    Surely the reason Republicans haven't won many popular votes is because, owing to gerrymandering plus the electoral college, they don't have to? If they had to win the popular vote in order to win the presidency or control Congress they would stand on a more moderate centre right platform and they would win the popular vote more often.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Stocky said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    @Cookie

    A few years ago, in Miami, I was reversing (very slowly and carefully) from a car park space only to feel a slight bump at the rear. To my amazement a car was in the back of me. I'm dead careful and was puzzled as to how the bump happened.

    The other driver was aggressive - adamant I had reversed into him although for the accident to have happened he must have equally driven forward into me (with much better visibility of course). He tried to get $100 out of me on the spot and I refused. There was no damage to my (rental) car and he alleged minor damage (picking broken glass off the ground). I noticed that his car was as old as the hills and had multiple dents.

    The police came and he immediately was on to them giving his version, following which I calmly gave mine. We went on our way and on return to UK I got a call from the insurance company confirming they were paying out.

    On reflection I am convinced this was an organised scam. And reading your post reminded me of it and I'm wondering whether you have been similarly scammed.
    I have seen similar scams, where someone deliberately rams a vehicle, blames the owner, and settles for a non insurance payout to "save your excess and no claims discount". I would be highly suspicious of this and report it to the police.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 877
    Alistair said: "There a lot of ways of lookomg at 2016 but Clinton toxicity is my leading cause.

    @Pulpstar favourite stat is the number of voters in Michigan in heavily Democratic area who voted for down ticket races but did not put in a Presidential vote."

    In 2016, I remember noticing, with a certain grim humor, that the two parties had chosen the two candidates with the highest net negative approvals in the field. (Ted Cruz was the third highest.)

    The other thing to know is that there were real problems in the US in 2016, problems that did not interest Obama. For example, life expectancy fell while he was in office.
    "The average life expectancy in the United States has been on a decline since 2014. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cites three main reasons: a 72% increase in overdoses in the last decade (including a 30% increase in opioid overdoses from July 2016 to September 2017, but did not differentiate between accidental overdose with a legal prescription and overdose with opioids obtained illegally and/or combined with illegal drugs i.e., heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine, etc.), a ten-year increase in liver disease (the rate for men age 25 to 34 increased by 8% per year; for women, by 11% per year), and a 33% increase in suicide rates since 1999."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

    Which some would find ironic since his biggest domestic achievement was a big health program, Obamacare.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    edited September 1
    Stocky said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    @Cookie

    A few years ago, in Miami, I was reversing (very slowly and carefully) from a car park space only to feel a slight bump at the rear. To my amazement a car was in the back of me. I'm dead careful and was puzzled as to how the bump happened.

    The other driver was aggressive - adamant I had reversed into him although for the accident to have happened he must have equally driven forward into me (with much better visibility of course). He tried to get $100 out of me on the spot and I refused. There was no damage to my (rental) car and he alleged minor damage (picking broken glass off the ground). I noticed that his car was as old as the hills and had multiple dents.

    The police came and he immediately was on to them giving his version, following which I calmly gave mine. We went on our way and on return to UK I got a call from the insurance company confirming they were paying out.

    On reflection I am convinced this was an organised scam. And reading your post reminded me of it and I'm wondering whether you have been similarly scammed.
    That was my first thought.
    Getting a solicitors letter that very day suggests someone highly organised (who wasn't in the least shaken or even surprised to have been in an accident) and out to intimidate.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    If Boris Johnson can review cars without driving them then surely an AI travel hack can tell us about Georgia without leaving the server farm.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    @Cookie

    A few years ago, in Miami, I was reversing (very slowly and carefully) from a car park space only to feel a slight bump at the rear. To my amazement a car was in the back of me. I'm dead careful and was puzzled as to how the bump happened.

    The other driver was aggressive - adamant I had reversed into him although for the accident to have happened he must have equally driven forward into me (with much better visibility of course). He tried to get $100 out of me on the spot and I refused. There was no damage to my (rental) car and he alleged minor damage (picking broken glass off the ground). I noticed that his car was as old as the hills and had multiple dents.

    The police came and he immediately was on to them giving his version, following which I calmly gave mine. We went on our way and on return to UK I got a call from the insurance company confirming they were paying out.

    On reflection I am convinced this was an organised scam. And reading your post reminded me of it and I'm wondering whether you have been similarly scammed.
    I have seen similar scams, where someone deliberately rams a vehicle, blames the owner, and settles for a non insurance payout to "save your excess and no claims discount". I would be highly suspicious of this and report it to the police.
    The standard defence is, I believe, a dashboard camera. But it is not much use in Cookie's case if he was reversing in, presumably? (Which is another reason for caution.)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    I don't think you have any choice

    https://www.gov.uk/vehicle-insurance/if-youre-in-an-accident

    and even if you have, it can't do any harm.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It would appear that using the word lazy to describe BoZo is in fact, lazy.

    I think it's more akin to ADHD. He is clearly willing to put some hours in, but only on things he wants to do to avoid things he should be doing.

    As Leon noted he used to write articles, which I am sure he would argue is not easy.

    But they were frequently late, and entirely made up.

    The question therefore is whether it is easier to write a fictional article (perhaps many times) than to do the research and write an accurate one.

    BoZo chose the former path. Some would call that lazy...

    My problem isn't with Johnson but with the system that indulged him. Why didn't the Telegraph think its readers deserved to read well researched, accurate articles? Why didn't the Telegraph's readers demand them? That is where the real laziness lies. That is evidence of a decadent society in decline.
    He's a columnist, and has been for many years. These are opinions, not factual investigations

    If you mean his European work for the Telegraph that was decades ago, so our decline has been in train since about 1990? Also, he didn't persistently lie, he often told the truth, which annoyed europhiles. And when he did lie - as a very young hack - he got the sack from the Times

    Again, I do not see this as evidence for a 40 year moral decline
    He persistently lied and made up stories when he was Brussels correspondent - read the Purnell biography which is based on first hand evidence for that period for examples.
    Even a columnist should base their writings on evidence not simply bluster. Compare a Johnson article with one by, eg, Martin Wolf (other than on Brexit probably not a million miles from Johnson ideologically speaking). It's not serious writing and it's not designed for people who want to understand a complex world, but would rather retreat into their own ideological comfort zone. (There are plenty of writers like this on the Left too, and they can be even worse - at least Johnson can be funny).
    You don't understand what a columnist like Boris is employed to do. That's obvious by your silly comparison with Martin Wolf.

    Wolf writes quite serious, often quite dull articles about economics, they tend to be filled with facts because they have to be, he's not funny or poetic nor is he attempting this. Boris was in the Telegraph to entertain and amuse and attract readers with vivid opinions about all kinds of things

    Boris must have done it well because he earned £300k a year. The Telegraph does not shell out that kind of cash for lolz
    I understand fully that there is demand for the kind of stuff Johnson writes. My contention is that this is a sad reflection on the people who read it, who can't differentiate between a joke and an argument and treat Johnson's views like they should be taken seriously.
    There is of course a place for genuine comic writing, but if you hold up Johnson's pieces against those of writers who excel in this field, they just aren't that good. Even being funny takes more effort than Johnson was willing to put in.
    I agree with some of this. Johnson is a pretty good writer, but not outstanding - tho he does have flashes of brilliance

    However this isn't really my point. The Telegraph - like any big paper - has finely tuned antennae enabling them to sense what writers are popular, and attract readers. This is easily done in the age of the internet. Page views etc

    This is why papers poach star writers, because one popular writer can attract 50,000 readers, so they will justify the money paid to them. This is why the Telegraph gave Bozza £300k a year. Popularity

    You can bemoan the fact that Boris is a popular journalist as some dread sign of moral collapse but I submit that's absurd. Newspapers have been employing colourful, popular columnists for 100 years
    He's the first one to have become PM though. That does point to a relatively recent loss of seriousness in our society.
    £300k isn't that much money. Perhaps it's a lot in the newspaper business, I don't know.
    £300,000 is chicken feed.
    It's a huge amount of money by most standards. But the newspaper business must not be hugely profitable if that's the salary of its absolute stars, when sectors like tech, finance or consulting are chock full of quite average people earning well north of that. Perhaps they are less fun and offer fewer side benefits.
    It was a quote.

    The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, today faced calls to apologise for his "out of touch" comment that his £250,000 earnings for writing a weekly Telegraph column were "chicken feed".
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jul/14/boris-johnson-telegraph-chicken-feed
    Maybe he has a lot of chickens to feed?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited September 1

    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)

    Surely the reason Republicans haven't won many popular votes is because, owing to gerrymandering plus the electoral college, they don't have to? If they had to win the popular vote in order to win the presidency or control Congress they would stand on a more moderate centre right platform and they would win the popular vote more often.
    Robert Blake argued the electoral system of Britain from 1832 to 1867 was exactly wrong for the Conservatives. They won the actual vote in every election except 1832 itself and 1865, but due to the way the votes fell (notably, that the counties where they were strong had most of the electors but only one-quarter of the seats) they were always short of a majority and the other parties conspired to keep them out. If the election had been on the popular vote, they would have won easily and formed strong governments - if it wasn't for that tempting carrot they might have, y'know, compromised with the electorate and come up with a programme that attracted urban support.

    I wonder if the Republicans aren't in a similar trap. Seeing that they can win occasionally by gaming the system is preventing them from seeing that they're gradually drifting away from mainstream politics and could end up going the way of the Whigs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It would appear that using the word lazy to describe BoZo is in fact, lazy.

    I think it's more akin to ADHD. He is clearly willing to put some hours in, but only on things he wants to do to avoid things he should be doing.

    As Leon noted he used to write articles, which I am sure he would argue is not easy.

    But they were frequently late, and entirely made up.

    The question therefore is whether it is easier to write a fictional article (perhaps many times) than to do the research and write an accurate one.

    BoZo chose the former path. Some would call that lazy...

    My problem isn't with Johnson but with the system that indulged him. Why didn't the Telegraph think its readers deserved to read well researched, accurate articles? Why didn't the Telegraph's readers demand them? That is where the real laziness lies. That is evidence of a decadent society in decline.
    He's a columnist, and has been for many years. These are opinions, not factual investigations

    If you mean his European work for the Telegraph that was decades ago, so our decline has been in train since about 1990? Also, he didn't persistently lie, he often told the truth, which annoyed europhiles. And when he did lie - as a very young hack - he got the sack from the Times

    Again, I do not see this as evidence for a 40 year moral decline
    He persistently lied and made up stories when he was Brussels correspondent - read the Purnell biography which is based on first hand evidence for that period for examples.
    Even a columnist should base their writings on evidence not simply bluster. Compare a Johnson article with one by, eg, Martin Wolf (other than on Brexit probably not a million miles from Johnson ideologically speaking). It's not serious writing and it's not designed for people who want to understand a complex world, but would rather retreat into their own ideological comfort zone. (There are plenty of writers like this on the Left too, and they can be even worse - at least Johnson can be funny).
    You don't understand what a columnist like Boris is employed to do. That's obvious by your silly comparison with Martin Wolf.

    Wolf writes quite serious, often quite dull articles about economics, they tend to be filled with facts because they have to be, he's not funny or poetic nor is he attempting this. Boris was in the Telegraph to entertain and amuse and attract readers with vivid opinions about all kinds of things

    Boris must have done it well because he earned £300k a year. The Telegraph does not shell out that kind of cash for lolz
    I understand fully that there is demand for the kind of stuff Johnson writes. My contention is that this is a sad reflection on the people who read it, who can't differentiate between a joke and an argument and treat Johnson's views like they should be taken seriously.
    There is of course a place for genuine comic writing, but if you hold up Johnson's pieces against those of writers who excel in this field, they just aren't that good. Even being funny takes more effort than Johnson was willing to put in.
    I agree with some of this. Johnson is a pretty good writer, but not outstanding - tho he does have flashes of brilliance

    However this isn't really my point. The Telegraph - like any big paper - has finely tuned antennae enabling them to sense what writers are popular, and attract readers. This is easily done in the age of the internet. Page views etc

    This is why papers poach star writers, because one popular writer can attract 50,000 readers, so they will justify the money paid to them. This is why the Telegraph gave Bozza £300k a year. Popularity

    You can bemoan the fact that Boris is a popular journalist as some dread sign of moral collapse but I submit that's absurd. Newspapers have been employing colourful, popular columnists for 100 years
    He's the first one to have become PM though. That does point to a relatively recent loss of seriousness in our society.
    £300k isn't that much money. Perhaps it's a lot in the newspaper business, I don't know.
    £300,000 is chicken feed.
    It's a huge amount of money by most standards. But the newspaper business must not be hugely profitable if that's the salary of its absolute stars, when sectors like tech, finance or consulting are chock full of quite average people earning well north of that. Perhaps they are less fun and offer fewer side benefits.
    It was a quote.

    The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, today faced calls to apologise for his "out of touch" comment that his £250,000 earnings for writing a weekly Telegraph column were "chicken feed".
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jul/14/boris-johnson-telegraph-chicken-feed
    Maybe he has a lot of chickens to feed?
    A lot of chicks, certainly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.
    Well they did; it's called google.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said: "Here is a question the Republicans should be thinking about, but clearly are not:

    Why have they only won the popular vote once since the collapse of the Soviet Union?"

    Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives in 2014 and 2016, and in other elections since that collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    The total popular vote for the House is not a perfect measure of party strength, since a few seats are uncontested (most of them heavily Democratic), but it is better than presidential elections.

    (Incidentally, I have argued since late in 2016 that Trump was the beneficiary of "reverse coat tails", that he was pulled to victory by more popular Republicans lower down on the balllot in key states.)

    Surely the reason Republicans haven't won many popular votes is because, owing to gerrymandering plus the electoral college, they don't have to? If they had to win the popular vote in order to win the presidency or control Congress they would stand on a more moderate centre right platform and they would win the popular vote more often.
    Robert Blake argued the electoral system of Britain from 1832 to 1867 was exactly wrong for the Conservatives. They won the actual vote in every election except 1832 itself and 1865, but die to the way the votes fell (notably, that the counties where they were strong had most of the electors but only one-quarter of the seats) they were always short of a majority and the other parties conspired to keep them out. If the election had been on the popular vote, they would have won easily and formed strong governments - if it wasn't for that tempting carrot they might have, y'know, compromised with the electorate and come up with a programme that attracted urban support.

    I wonder if the Republicans aren't in a similar trap. Seeing that they can win occasionally by gaming the system is preventing them from seeing that they're gradually drifting away from mainstream politics and could end up going the way of the Whigs.
    I think that is a real risk for them and helps to explain why they are embracing far right ideas like the Great Replacement - it's the logical next step for a party that thinks it is facing the wrong electorate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    Ah, I see you are back! I thought you had flounced. I found myself mystified as to why I felt sad, but sad I did, and now I feel, if not overjoyed, a little pleased your ridiculous self is back frequenting these parts again.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 12,136
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    If AI does take over from GPs, I wonder how long it will be before it insists on more pay for less work and a pension that is more than the average man/women in the street earns when they are fulltime working?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.
    Well they did; it's called google.
    lol, touche
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 515
    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.

    Well they did; it's called google.
    Google is many things, but it is definitely not an Expert System as the term was used in the 80s.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It would appear that using the word lazy to describe BoZo is in fact, lazy.

    I think it's more akin to ADHD. He is clearly willing to put some hours in, but only on things he wants to do to avoid things he should be doing.

    As Leon noted he used to write articles, which I am sure he would argue is not easy.

    But they were frequently late, and entirely made up.

    The question therefore is whether it is easier to write a fictional article (perhaps many times) than to do the research and write an accurate one.

    BoZo chose the former path. Some would call that lazy...

    My problem isn't with Johnson but with the system that indulged him. Why didn't the Telegraph think its readers deserved to read well researched, accurate articles? Why didn't the Telegraph's readers demand them? That is where the real laziness lies. That is evidence of a decadent society in decline.
    He's a columnist, and has been for many years. These are opinions, not factual investigations

    If you mean his European work for the Telegraph that was decades ago, so our decline has been in train since about 1990? Also, he didn't persistently lie, he often told the truth, which annoyed europhiles. And when he did lie - as a very young hack - he got the sack from the Times

    Again, I do not see this as evidence for a 40 year moral decline
    He persistently lied and made up stories when he was Brussels correspondent - read the Purnell biography which is based on first hand evidence for that period for examples.
    Even a columnist should base their writings on evidence not simply bluster. Compare a Johnson article with one by, eg, Martin Wolf (other than on Brexit probably not a million miles from Johnson ideologically speaking). It's not serious writing and it's not designed for people who want to understand a complex world, but would rather retreat into their own ideological comfort zone. (There are plenty of writers like this on the Left too, and they can be even worse - at least Johnson can be funny).
    You don't understand what a columnist like Boris is employed to do. That's obvious by your silly comparison with Martin Wolf.

    Wolf writes quite serious, often quite dull articles about economics, they tend to be filled with facts because they have to be, he's not funny or poetic nor is he attempting this. Boris was in the Telegraph to entertain and amuse and attract readers with vivid opinions about all kinds of things

    Boris must have done it well because he earned £300k a year. The Telegraph does not shell out that kind of cash for lolz
    I understand fully that there is demand for the kind of stuff Johnson writes. My contention is that this is a sad reflection on the people who read it, who can't differentiate between a joke and an argument and treat Johnson's views like they should be taken seriously.
    There is of course a place for genuine comic writing, but if you hold up Johnson's pieces against those of writers who excel in this field, they just aren't that good. Even being funny takes more effort than Johnson was willing to put in.
    I agree with some of this. Johnson is a pretty good writer, but not outstanding - tho he does have flashes of brilliance

    However this isn't really my point. The Telegraph - like any big paper - has finely tuned antennae enabling them to sense what writers are popular, and attract readers. This is easily done in the age of the internet. Page views etc

    This is why papers poach star writers, because one popular writer can attract 50,000 readers, so they will justify the money paid to them. This is why the Telegraph gave Bozza £300k a year. Popularity

    You can bemoan the fact that Boris is a popular journalist as some dread sign of moral collapse but I submit that's absurd. Newspapers have been employing colourful, popular columnists for 100 years
    He's the first one to have become PM though. That does point to a relatively recent loss of seriousness in our society.
    £300k isn't that much money. Perhaps it's a lot in the newspaper business, I don't know.
    £300,000 is chicken feed.
    It's a huge amount of money by most standards. But the newspaper business must not be hugely profitable if that's the salary of its absolute stars, when sectors like tech, finance or consulting are chock full of quite average people earning well north of that. Perhaps they are less fun and offer fewer side benefits.
    It was a quote.

    The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, today faced calls to apologise for his "out of touch" comment that his £250,000 earnings for writing a weekly Telegraph column were "chicken feed".
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jul/14/boris-johnson-telegraph-chicken-feed
    Maybe he has a lot of chickens to feed?
    I woukd like to think it's because they've come home to roost but inevitably the fecker will deny all ownership (got all the big calls on chickens right, these are my successor's chickens, Sir Beer Chicken Korma, blah blah blah).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    pm215 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.

    Well they did; it's called google.
    Google is many things, but it is definitely not an Expert System as the term was used in the 80s.
    No, but {educated layman plus google} is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    Ah, I see you are back! I thought you had flounced. I found myself mystified as to why I felt sad, but sad I did, and now I feel, if not overjoyed, a little pleased your ridiculous self is back frequenting these parts again.
    Kind of you. The site needs rightwingers like us, as it all veers left and we are plunged into Emergency Socialism
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 877
    OnlyLivingBoy said: "Surely the reason Republicans haven't won many popular votes is because, owing to gerrymandering plus the electoral college, they don't have to? If they had to win the popular vote in order to win the presidency or control Congress they would stand on a more moderate centre right platform and they would win the popular vote more often."

    Since 1992, Democrats have won the popular vote for the House of Representatives seven times (1992, 1996, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020), Republicans eight times (1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2014, and 2016).

    (I am tempted to add a sarcastic comment here, but won't.)

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    For some reason I have an image of a red faced 1960's grandad raging at his grandkids cos they lost interest on the 27th in the Etch A Sketch he generously bought them for Christmas.

    'This is the future you little bastards!!!'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    IshmaelZ said:

    pm215 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.

    Well they did; it's called google.
    Google is many things, but it is definitely not an Expert System as the term was used in the 80s.
    No, but {educated layman plus google} is.
    I have diagnosed myself several times via Google. Once was when I had a strange constellation of symptoms which had my doctors mystified. Indeed one of them basically accused me of making it up

    So I went to Doc Google, and plugged in all my weird symptoms - from eyebrow loss to thick hair and amnesia and the rest - and it came back immediately. Hypothyroidism. I was an unusual case, male, quite young, but the symptoms were so ODD it had to be that?

    I went back to the GPs and they were still skeptical but I insisted, they gave me a blood test. Bingo. Hypothyroidism

    They confessed the results quite sheepishly

    Without Google, how long might I have gone on arguing with the quacks?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 515
    Leon said:

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably

    As with self-driving cars, I suspect a lot of the difficulty with replacing a GP is regulatory/legal -- who takes the burden of responsibility when the AI inevitably misdiagnoses some fatal disease? (Never mind that a GP might have made the same mistake.) There are likely many fields that will end up AI-driven or replaced before GPs for that reason.

    I would also be on the lookout for areas where AI reshapes the environment radically rather than 1:1 replacing a human, and especially where something can be set up such that the customer/user themselves provides any still-required human element. Non-AI tech examples include self-scan checkouts at supermarkets.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565

    For some reason I have an image of a red faced 1960's grandad raging at his grandkids cos they lost interest on the 27th in the Etch A Sketch he generously bought them for Christmas.

    'This is the future you little bastards!!!'

    Yes, it's exactly like that

    Jeez Denise
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,642
    edited September 1
    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    pm215 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:


    Back in the early 1980s a branch of AI called Expert Systems were going to make GPs obsolete due to *insert hype here*

    Spoiler: they did not.

    Well they did; it's called google.
    Google is many things, but it is definitely not an Expert System as the term was used in the 80s.
    No, but {educated layman plus google} is.
    I have diagnosed myself several times via Google. Once was when I had a strange constellation of symptoms which had my doctors mystified. Indeed one of them basically accused me of making it up

    So I went to Doc Google, and plugged in all my weird symptoms - from eyebrow loss to thick hair and amnesia and the rest - and it came back immediately. Hypothyroidism. I was an unusual case, male, quite young, but the symptoms were so ODD it had to be that?

    I went back to the GPs and they were still skeptical but I insisted, they gave me a blood test. Bingo. Hypothyroidism

    They confessed the results quite sheepishly

    Without Google, how long might I have gone on arguing with the quacks?
    Me too. The only thing a medical professional has told me that I hadn't already worked out for myself in the past decade, was that I had a stage 3 malignant tumour. And she wasn't a doctor, but a technician with a camera stuffed up my tradesman's entrance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,565
    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    It sounds most unnerving. I can't advise much, I dunno these things, but I prescribe a stiff gin and tonic
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    It cannot actually examine patients though! There is a crude physicality to my job.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    "House prices were up 10 per cent in the year to August 2022, according to Nationwide's latest index, nudging down from the 11 per cent property inflation recorded in July."

    Mail


    Just incredible.

    Wile Coyote i think.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447
    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    No pubs named after Henry V?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    Where is the Forkbeard pub?

    I want to go!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    edited September 1

    "House prices were up 10 per cent in the year to August 2022, according to Nationwide's latest index, nudging down from the 11 per cent property inflation recorded in July."

    Mail


    Just incredible.

    Wile Coyote i think.

    Folk have been saying a correction is coming seemingly my entire adult life.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably

    As with self-driving cars, I suspect a lot of the difficulty with replacing a GP is regulatory/legal -- who takes the burden of responsibility when the AI inevitably misdiagnoses some fatal disease? (Never mind that a GP might have made the same mistake.) There are likely many fields that will end up AI-driven or replaced before GPs for that reason.

    I would also be on the lookout for areas where AI reshapes the environment radically rather than 1:1 replacing a human, and especially where something can be set up such that the customer/user themselves provides any still-required human element. Non-AI tech examples include self-scan checkouts at supermarkets.
    Yep. Only doctors can prescribe medication for example (apart from a few minor bits and pieces that nurses can do).

    That is a regulatory/legal thing and very carefully controlled by the profession no doubt.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,242
    edited September 1
    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    People have pointed out about the Royal Oaks as well, for Charles II. Probably a nonsense image floating online, but it does make me think how few Edwards I see compared to Georges though - even if the figures listed are wrong, there's definitely a disparity even sticking with more recent monarchs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Oof.
    This morning, while reversing into my drive, someone drove into the side of me. No-one hurt. But the other guy seemed unreasonably angry that I was reversing into my drive, and hasn't accepted responsibility.
    I've never been in this situation before. I've been in accidents, but usually responsibility is accepted at the time. This is proving considerably more problematic. Latest issue is that my renewal is due in a week and a half, and the cost of this has just suddenly more than doubled.
    You start doubting yourself in this situation. Was it really my fault? But I took some photos at the time: my back wheels are on the pavement; I'm just about perpendicular to the road and there's a big dent in the driver's door. I can't see how a reasonable person could conclude this was my fault.

    That sucks. However, if he drove into you while you were reversing, his insurers will have a hard time suggesting it was your fault.

    Have you notified the police?
    Thanks Doc. I've just seen his solicitor's letter with his version of events which is, frankly, creative. It's shaken me up a bit. I haven't notified the police, no. Probably I should do so.
    Complete wideboy if he has got a solicitors letter to you on the same day

    Just out of interest if you've got his reg you can find out online if he is taxed and MOTed up to date and ask whether he is insured

    https://www.askmid.com/askmidenquiry.aspx
    Also check out the solicitors. A relative got a threatening letter from a “solicitor”. Turned out that the “solicitor” wasn’t actually a real lawyer - an idiot who knew a bit of law. My relative really enjoyed setting the Law Society on the pair of them….

    “Fly my pretties… Fly!”
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,476
    edited September 1

    Interesting from tonight's Redfield Wilton

    Truss herself was more unknown than known to the public at the start of the leadership contest. While the public has no doubt heard much from her in the last few weeks, they are still yet to see her in action and to see the results of her proposed policies, providing an opening to create a strong first impression.

    Above all, the public has yet to warm up to her opponent, Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer. While Labour has led in every single one of our Westminster voting intention polls this year, with our latest poll finding Labour ahead by 11%, approaching the largest lead we have recorded for them, Starmer himself has not once had a solidly positive net approval rating. His three most recent net approval ratings have been: -5%, -6%, and -5%.

    In the early weeks of the leadership contest, without yet having become Prime Minister, Liz Truss was able to establish a narrow lead in head-to-head polling against Keir Starmer for better Prime Minister for the UK. As the contest stretched on, Starmer regained a lead (now at 39% to 35%), but such fluctuations demonstrate how easily the polling picture can improve for the Conservatives under Liz Truss.

    Johnson made Starmer look second rate. I am not sure Truss can.
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    I think the Tories could be well ahead in the polls within a few weeks.
    Can we see your workings out please?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    Hmmm.

    I'm now wondering if he's got a medical condition e.g. failing eyesight and is scared of losing his licence if this goes to his insurers.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,485
    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472

    "House prices were up 10 per cent in the year to August 2022, according to Nationwide's latest index, nudging down from the 11 per cent property inflation recorded in July."

    Mail


    Just incredible.

    Wile Coyote i think.

    That's actually marginally down in real terms, given that CPI is at 10.1% and heading up, so that represents a massive fall in house price inflation in real terms, though still rising ahead of incomes.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,837
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably

    As with self-driving cars, I suspect a lot of the difficulty with replacing a GP is regulatory/legal -- who takes the burden of responsibility when the AI inevitably misdiagnoses some fatal disease? (Never mind that a GP might have made the same mistake.) There are likely many fields that will end up AI-driven or replaced before GPs for that reason.

    I would also be on the lookout for areas where AI reshapes the environment radically rather than 1:1 replacing a human, and especially where something can be set up such that the customer/user themselves provides any still-required human element. Non-AI tech examples include self-scan checkouts at supermarkets.
    I was thinking about that just now. A good use of AI would be age verification at the self-checkout so I don't have to ask a 16-year-old if it's OK if I buy (yet another) bottle of Rioja.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Corbyn was pretty sensationally uprated in 2017, wasn't he, during the GE campaign? Still a loser, of course, but his personal ratings rose significantly.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    edited September 1
    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    I'm guessing that you had stopped on the left side of the road in front of your driveway and then reversed back into your driveway so your driver's door was exposed to the oncoming car? If so, the oncoming car has driven into you. Can't see how this can be denied. it wasn't like the oncoming car was stationery and you collided with it - it was the other way round. How the heck didn't he see you and wait? I realise it's his right of way, but still.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Corbyn was pretty sensationally uprated in 2017, wasn't he, during the GE campaign? Still a loser, of course, but his personal ratings rose significantly.
    Yes, good point. A lot of that was about May of course.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    pm215 said:

    Leon said:

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably

    As with self-driving cars, I suspect a lot of the difficulty with replacing a GP is regulatory/legal -- who takes the burden of responsibility when the AI inevitably misdiagnoses some fatal disease? (Never mind that a GP might have made the same mistake.) There are likely many fields that will end up AI-driven or replaced before GPs for that reason.

    I would also be on the lookout for areas where AI reshapes the environment radically rather than 1:1 replacing a human, and especially where something can be set up such that the customer/user themselves provides any still-required human element. Non-AI tech examples include self-scan checkouts at supermarkets.
    I was thinking about that just now. A good use of AI would be age verification at the self-checkout so I don't have to ask a 16-year-old if it's OK if I buy (yet another) bottle of Rioja.
    Not built into the tills so it becomes one of those things where (as with driverless trains on the underground) - if only AI age guesstimation was available when the tills were created AND licencing courts accepted it...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Yes.
    However, if it's Truss v Starmer, then one of them has to win.
  • Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447

    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Corbyn was pretty sensationally uprated in 2017, wasn't he, during the GE campaign? Still a loser, of course, but his personal ratings rose significantly.
    I think he illustrated how poorly the more qualified politicains do their jobs. The fact that he, a bit of a thicky, could have so much influence is astonishing.

    (In my view Economics as a science is the core slippery foundation that allows this to happen)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200
    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    @Cookie
    Sorry to hear about this situation.
    I don't think the police attend if there are no one is injured.
    I would think about what happened overnight, then write a report and send it to the insurance company explaining your account of what happened, include photos and diagrams etc.
    This is what I did last year, after my Insurance company concluded we were at fault in a collision.
    We fought it out, got someone in the Insurance company to look in to it, and eventually they got the other side to admit liability.
    If you were reversing in to your drive, and it sounds like you were quite a long way in to the manouevre, so the other person should have anticipated the hazard and stopped in time.

    I would probably just quote the relevant part of the highway code to the Insurance company, say that you checked and the road was clear when you started the manoevre, and that the other driver should have anticipated the hazard.

    If you were reversing out on the other hand, then I think you would be at fault as you should have seen the oncoming traffic, I think this manouevre is not allowed in the highway code.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are we devoting an entire thread to discussing a soon to be ex PM who got booted from office for being a lying toad ?
    I'd rather bring back @Leon 's bloody pictures.

    Off for lunch, but here's a parting gift.

    Biden's Approval Rating Surges After Hitting Low Mark In July,
    Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
    Half Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Criminal
    Charges Over His Handling Of Classified Documents
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854
    ...More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are following the news about the removal of classified documents from former President Donald Trump's Florida home either very closely (38 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 24 percent say they are either following it not so closely (11 percent) or not closely at all (13 percent).

    Americans 59 - 26 percent think former President Trump acted inappropriately...


    Lay the "great greased watermelon" for the Republican nomination.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/facts-caught-donald-trump-documents.html

    Gas prices tumble
    Roe v Wade overturned

    Biden's ratings surge.

    Had Gas prices stayed high he would have struggled.
    Do you mean gas as in petrol? Or os the American price for gas as in gas a lot lower too?
    Gas as in petrol
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Corbyn was pretty sensationally uprated in 2017, wasn't he, during the GE campaign? Still a loser, of course, but his personal ratings rose significantly.
    Yes, good point. A lot of that was about May of course.
    Didn't Dave C's ratings perk up massively after 2008 as well?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,447
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are we devoting an entire thread to discussing a soon to be ex PM who got booted from office for being a lying toad ?
    I'd rather bring back @Leon 's bloody pictures.

    Off for lunch, but here's a parting gift.

    Biden's Approval Rating Surges After Hitting Low Mark In July,
    Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
    Half Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Criminal
    Charges Over His Handling Of Classified Documents
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854
    ...More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are following the news about the removal of classified documents from former President Donald Trump's Florida home either very closely (38 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 24 percent say they are either following it not so closely (11 percent) or not closely at all (13 percent).

    Americans 59 - 26 percent think former President Trump acted inappropriately...


    Lay the "great greased watermelon" for the Republican nomination.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/facts-caught-donald-trump-documents.html

    Gas prices tumble
    Roe v Wade overturned

    Biden's ratings surge.

    Had Gas prices stayed high he would have struggled.
    Do you mean gas as in petrol? Or os the American price for gas as in gas a lot lower too?
    Gas as in petrol
    What do they call gas (as in gas) in the US?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    Omnium said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are we devoting an entire thread to discussing a soon to be ex PM who got booted from office for being a lying toad ?
    I'd rather bring back @Leon 's bloody pictures.

    Off for lunch, but here's a parting gift.

    Biden's Approval Rating Surges After Hitting Low Mark In July,
    Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
    Half Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Criminal
    Charges Over His Handling Of Classified Documents
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854
    ...More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are following the news about the removal of classified documents from former President Donald Trump's Florida home either very closely (38 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 24 percent say they are either following it not so closely (11 percent) or not closely at all (13 percent).

    Americans 59 - 26 percent think former President Trump acted inappropriately...


    Lay the "great greased watermelon" for the Republican nomination.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/facts-caught-donald-trump-documents.html

    Gas prices tumble
    Roe v Wade overturned

    Biden's ratings surge.

    Had Gas prices stayed high he would have struggled.
    Do you mean gas as in petrol? Or os the American price for gas as in gas a lot lower too?
    Gas as in petrol
    What do they call gas (as in gas) in the US?
    I don’t know but this may assist

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Corbyn was pretty sensationally uprated in 2017, wasn't he, during the GE campaign? Still a loser, of course, but his personal ratings rose significantly.
    Yes, good point. A lot of that was about May of course.
    Didn't Dave C's ratings perk up massively after 2008 as well?
    Again, good point. Truss could make him look good.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,347
    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    just because he's old doesn't mean he's not a scammer
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    What sort of deepthroating c*cks*cker refers to petrol as gas on a UK website?

    Genuinely mystified.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    IshmaelZ said:

    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    A friend of mine claims that in the 80s he was trying to track down a friend he thought was drinking in one of the 3 Marquis of Granby pubs in london and did a directory enquiries job, leading to a confusing conversation with, not a pub, but the actual Marquess of actual Granby.
    I'm mildly sceptical, because the normal title of the Marquis of Granby is the Duke of Rutland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Manners,_11th_Duke_of_Rutland
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    darkage said:

    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    @Cookie
    Sorry to hear about this situation.
    I don't think the police attend if there are no one is injured.
    I would think about what happened overnight, then write a report and send it to the insurance company explaining your account of what happened, include photos and diagrams etc.
    This is what I did last year, after my Insurance company concluded we were at fault in a collision.
    We fought it out, got someone in the Insurance company to look in to it, and eventually they got the other side to admit liability.
    If you were reversing in to your drive, and it sounds like you were quite a long way in to the manouevre, so the other person should have anticipated the hazard and stopped in time.

    I would probably just quote the relevant part of the highway code to the Insurance company, say that you checked and the road was clear when you started the manoevre, and that the other driver should have anticipated the hazard.

    If you were reversing out on the other hand, then I think you would be at fault as you should have seen the oncoming traffic, I think this manouevre is not allowed in the highway code.
    It is worth noting that a certain kind of “attorney” in the US claims that the trend to install all angles cameras which automatically record collisions is “creepy”, “immoral” etc.

    I suppose that making collision shakedown scams impossible to execute is depriving some people of the livelihood. Which is probably immoral from their point of view, I suppose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    A friend of mine claims that in the 80s he was trying to track down a friend he thought was drinking in one of the 3 Marquis of Granby pubs in london and did a directory enquiries job, leading to a confusing conversation with, not a pub, but the actual Marquess of actual Granby.
    I'm mildly sceptical, because the normal title of the Marquis of Granby is the Duke of Rutland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Manners,_11th_Duke_of_Rutland
    It's a subsidiary title used by the heir apparent.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    Omnium said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are we devoting an entire thread to discussing a soon to be ex PM who got booted from office for being a lying toad ?
    I'd rather bring back @Leon 's bloody pictures.

    Off for lunch, but here's a parting gift.

    Biden's Approval Rating Surges After Hitting Low Mark In July,
    Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
    Half Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Criminal
    Charges Over His Handling Of Classified Documents
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854
    ...More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are following the news about the removal of classified documents from former President Donald Trump's Florida home either very closely (38 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 24 percent say they are either following it not so closely (11 percent) or not closely at all (13 percent).

    Americans 59 - 26 percent think former President Trump acted inappropriately...


    Lay the "great greased watermelon" for the Republican nomination.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/facts-caught-donald-trump-documents.html

    Gas prices tumble
    Roe v Wade overturned

    Biden's ratings surge.

    Had Gas prices stayed high he would have struggled.
    Do you mean gas as in petrol? Or os the American price for gas as in gas a lot lower too?
    Gas as in petrol
    What do they call gas (as in gas) in the US?
    Gas?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472
    edited September 1
    IshmaelZ said:

    What sort of deepthroating c*cks*cker refers to petrol as gas on a UK website?

    Genuinely mystified.

    Presumably those who have spent a long time in the US.

    I've only ever bought diesel from petrol stations, and my (Irish) wife is somewhat confused by the British standard name of petrol station. I had to tell her the first few times that they also sold diesel, and I wouldn't be putting the wrong fuel into her car.

    The standard in rural Ireland appears to be to refer to the fuel station by the surname of the owners, because of course you know which family owns the place, even if they don't use their name on any of the signs.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Lennon said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    That's odd... and how do they know? If a pub is called "The King George" - how do they know which George it is named after?

    Edit to add - and what about pubs like "The Tudor Rose" - is that not named after Henry Tudor? But I imagine not counted looking at that list...
    A friend of mine claims that in the 80s he was trying to track down a friend he thought was drinking in one of the 3 Marquis of Granby pubs in london and did a directory enquiries job, leading to a confusing conversation with, not a pub, but the actual Marquess of actual Granby.
    I'm mildly sceptical, because the normal title of the Marquis of Granby is the Duke of Rutland: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Manners,_11th_Duke_of_Rutland
    Yebbut the eldest son uses it till his pop croaks, is how it normally works. Which in the 80s would have been the present Dook.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    What sort of deepthroating c*cks*cker refers to petrol as gas on a UK website?

    Genuinely mystified.

    Presumably those who have spent a long time in the US.

    I've only ever bought diesel from petrol stations, and my (Irish) wife is somewhat confused by the British standard name of petrol station. I had to tell her the first few times that they also sold diesel, and I wouldn't be putting the wrong fuel into her car.

    The standard in rural Ireland appears to be to refer to the fuel station by the surname of the owners, because of course you know which family owns the place, even if they don't use their name on any of the signs.
    Tiny bit of that left in Devon. Extra points for referring to it as Pridholms when actually the Pridholms sold it to the Carrs in about 1950.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318

    OnlyLivingBoy said: "Surely the reason Republicans haven't won many popular votes is because, owing to gerrymandering plus the electoral college, they don't have to? If they had to win the popular vote in order to win the presidency or control Congress they would stand on a more moderate centre right platform and they would win the popular vote more often."

    Since 1992, Democrats have won the popular vote for the House of Representatives seven times (1992, 1996, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020), Republicans eight times (1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2014, and 2016).

    (I am tempted to add a sarcastic comment here, but won't.)

    You are right sorry, and thanks for foregoing the sarcastic comment, that was good of you.

    I would add though that in one of the elections where the Democrats won the popular vote (2012) the Republicans won most seats in the House, and on three occasions when the Republicans won the popular vote (1996,1998 and 2000) they did so by a margin of less than 1 percent but won in terms of seats by a far wider margin. So I think the general point about using things like gerrymandering to let them get power more often and by a wider margin than their overall level of popular support would suggest still holds - even if it is not quite as egregious as in the case of the electoral college and the presidency.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    edited September 1

    Omnium said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are we devoting an entire thread to discussing a soon to be ex PM who got booted from office for being a lying toad ?
    I'd rather bring back @Leon 's bloody pictures.

    Off for lunch, but here's a parting gift.

    Biden's Approval Rating Surges After Hitting Low Mark In July,
    Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
    Half Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Prosecuted On Criminal
    Charges Over His Handling Of Classified Documents
    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3854
    ...More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are following the news about the removal of classified documents from former President Donald Trump's Florida home either very closely (38 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 24 percent say they are either following it not so closely (11 percent) or not closely at all (13 percent).

    Americans 59 - 26 percent think former President Trump acted inappropriately...


    Lay the "great greased watermelon" for the Republican nomination.
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/facts-caught-donald-trump-documents.html

    Gas prices tumble
    Roe v Wade overturned

    Biden's ratings surge.

    Had Gas prices stayed high he would have struggled.
    Do you mean gas as in petrol? Or os the American price for gas as in gas a lot lower too?
    Gas as in petrol
    What do they call gas (as in gas) in the US?
    Gas?

    IshmaelZ said:

    What sort of deepthroating c*cks*cker refers to petrol as gas on a UK website?

    Genuinely mystified.

    Presumably those who have spent a long time in the US.

    I've only ever bought diesel from petrol stations, and my (Irish) wife is somewhat confused by the British standard name of petrol station. I had to tell her the first few times that they also sold diesel, and I wouldn't be putting the wrong fuel into her car.

    The standard in rural Ireland appears to be to refer to the fuel station by the surname of the owners, because of course you know which family owns the place, even if they don't use their name on any of the signs.
    We’re a multinational site. Gas or petrol. It hardly matters. If it triggers anyone that’s their problem not anyone else’s.

    I wonder if they still sell DERV or paraffin.

    Good old Esso Blue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)

    More TERF wars.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    Any particular job might go - fletchers and coopers, reeves and law copyists are in less demand than once.

    But jobs as a whole don't and won't go. The world (at least the bits of it that sort of work) is organised as a job creation scheme. This is essential to civil order, and also essential to the capitalist principal of how to get rich: You can only get rich by selling something to people who have money to spend. "Prosperous neighbours make good customers". (The opposite of mercantilism).

    This principle does not require, but is helped by the modern trend of getting people to buy stuff they don't need with money they don't (yet) have. This creates oceans of further jobs in financial services as well.



  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,508



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited September 1
    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    Something that's actually being implemented is never judged in the same way as a hypothetical opposition plan.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,766
    Stocky said:

    Cookie said:

    Guys, I'm genuinely touched by the comments of everyone who has shown concern on this. I'm feeling a tad wrought and what a supportive site this is.
    I don't think this is a scam. He was an old fella, and while I've never met him, he lives around the corner from me. And he had his grandson in the car. But I will be wary. I haven't called the police yet, but I've spoken to a friend who is an ex-copper ro see what he thinks.
    Neighbours don't have security cameras sadly - they're installing one next week. Too late!

    I'm guessing that you had stopped on the left side of the road in front of your driveway and then reversed back into your driveway so your driver's door was exposed to the oncoming car? If so, the oncoming car has driven into you. Can't see how this can be denied. it wasn't like the oncoming car was stationery and you collided with it - it was the other way round. How the heck didn't he see you and wait? I realise it's his right of way, but still.
    Thanks @Stocky. Yes, that's right.
    You doubt yourself in this situation, you really do. Unless you watch the other guy crash into you there is a nagging doubt that this is really your fault. But my wife took some great photos and they show exactly the situation you describe - I am at about 45 degrees to the road, my wheels crossing the pavement on the way to my drive, and he has clearly coming from a minor road where there is a stop line amd hit me in the side. It's very difficult to crash into another car and leave a big dent in the side of your vehicle. There is no other traffic about; he has just assumed his road will clear.

    Also, the photo shows - and I am a big guy with sometimes a shaven head and can be quite intimidating looking in the wrong light - an old guy gesturing angrily and shouting while a large but polite and respectable and unthreatening looking man looks slightly concerned at him. Which proves nothing, but at least doesn't feed the thug-trying-to-intimidate-elderly-gent picture I feared it looked like at the time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)

    More TERF wars.
    that's clever. double meaning. terf, turf.

    Clever.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    ...
    I’d love to sink a jar of foaming finest British ale in the Athelstan or Sweyn Forkbeard. Unless they’re flat roof pubs on inner city sink estates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917
    edited September 1
    kle4 said:

    This does seem weird. Wonder if scottish monarchs do better


    A very quick check brings up 3 pubs named for Richard III, explicitly so, in Scarborough, Leyburn, and of course Leicester.

    I do wonder about the accuracy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194

    "Labour brought in women’s shortlists, overnight upping female representation, but how that would happen now I don't know – as they have tied themselves in ever more ridiculous knots by being unable to define what a woman is in order to appeal to their activists. They are confused about who has a cervix and whether womanhood is biological or just a feeling in someone’s head. "

    Suzanne Moore - Telegraph (ex-Guardian)

    Wasn’t she terfed out of the Grauniad.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,472



    SNIP

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.

    In my experience, the number of voters interested in whether there is a credible plan to pay for something is very small. In fact, the number of voters who can even do basic arithmetic is very small.

    Truss either

    i) offers a generous plan funded by wawa (Feynman-speak for whatever whatever), in which case she stands a chance at the GE24,
    ii) does not offer a generous plan, in which case she is probably out in a year.

    My guess is she will choose (i), and leave the problem of paying for it to whoever wins in GE24.

    If SKS wins, it's his problem. If she wins, it's her problem -- but it is a nicer problem to have than a humiliating exit after a year.
    I disagree. And you are actually insulting voters with your post as being thick and not paying attention.

    Truss plan is so similar to Corbyn’s manifesto at the 19 election it will suffer the same “how is it being paid for” response from voters so lowering Tory polls still further.

    To say this will be paid for by borrowing, efficiency savings and proceeds of the growth this plan creates WILL lower Tory poll ratings almost immediately. Voters aren’t as ignorant and stupid as you claim.
    This depends on whether the opposition politicians and media make funding of the plan a big issue. It was a big issue in 2010 because the Tories and the media make it a big issue.

    It's much harder for Labour to make it a big issue because Labour will always want to spend more money.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Redfield this afternoon has Labour 11% ahead on 42% to 31% for the Conservatives, so Truss has plenty of room for a bounce next week

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1565368898320363520?s=20&t=sAHEccH2YGBFGVdsBnLl9g

    You mean plenty of room to bounce and still remain well behind?
    Labour need to be careful of complacency

    If Truss does produce a popular budget and at last there is a government taking on labour both in the media and the dispatch box it is a brave person who can predict the outcome
    I’m not so sure Big G. Likelihood is very opposite of yours and HY joint optimism.

    Is it “popular budget” or anything they say? Or exactly the same announcement popular when people are listening to you, but doesn’t move the dial when no one is listening anymore?

    That’s the problem here, a party to come back for second chance when written off in voters minds who are no longer listening.

    In the polling in August just a couple of 35s for Tories, of late it is nearer 30, lots of Labour 40’s - this too against backdrop of the leadership campaigning coverage, good news promises not belt tightening messaging - so Tories blame blue on blue, but it might be voter despair at the UnPrimeministerial dross on show from all candidates, no leadership skills or assurance from the two in final two.

    I’m with those who feel this unique situation creates a negative bounce in the polls, not dramatically, just continued decline. I certainly believe Truss will do the dirty on the Tory membership and row back on these recent weeks from day one, but become a painful figure of fun leading our country and not listened to regardless of her plan does surprise and make sense. Though I predict the plan announced may sound generous even bold at first, but soon fall apart on its “how is it paid for” and “regressive” seams. I even think there is a chance they will bomb in the polls by being stupid enough to say it’s being paid for not just by borrowing but from the proceeds of inevitable growth and government efficiency savings.

    That’s my analysis tonight.
    I did warn Labour of complacency and at times it seems an awful lot is being taken for granted

    I think it’s pretty safe for us all to take for granted that Truss and Kwarzy don’t have the skill set for the top jobs, they are actually going to be crap at leadership in these top jobs - don’t we already have enough evidence of this - lack of communication skills and personality and policy pragmatism?

    And it is safe to take for granted there are signs the voters arn’t listen to the Tory’s anymore, a rubicon have been crossed there this year.

    Complacency from Labour would manifest itself in a drift leftward into pie in the sky lefty policies and economics, and in a lack of party discipline - are we really seeing those real signs of complacency?
    Labour's issue is that they have precisely nothing to offer.

    We've spent the last 20 years pursuing a virtue-signalling energy policy, which has left us f****d on energy security, a virtue-signalling policing policy, which gave us Rotherham, a virtue-signalling water policy that has given us winter floods and summer water restrictions, a virtue signalling benefit entitlement policy that is flooding us with economic migrants, a virtue-signalling foreign policy (I'll let you fill in the blanks there), and now a virtue signalling farming policy that if continued, is likely to lead to food shortages. That's just the edited highlights.

    We have been rudely awakened to Britain's utter dysfunction, and what solutions has Keir got to any of this? F**k all! He's worse than the Tories on most if not all of the major issues.

    That's why Liz might, just might work, because at the moment, she shows the will to actually challenge some of this shite, and she has proven that she can get things done.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    IshmaelZ said:

    On the polling, Starmer is clearly not very popular at all, and is struggling to break through with the Great British Public.

    And yet, despite this, Labour seem to be roughly 10pp ahead in the polls.

    Which makes me think, what would happen if Starmer's reputation improved significantly with the GBP? Not impossible, by any means.

    He's been around for such a long time now... Any cases of a well known politician being sensationally uprated by the public? Even if he magically desisted from being a boring dork it is probably too late.
    Yes.
    However, if it's Truss v Starmer, then one of them has to win.
    All politics is relative and a two horse race. It's running away from the bear. The bear is the voting public. To not be eaten by the bear you only have to run faster than the other chap, not faster than the bear.

    This particular race will be dull, when we could have had Kemi v Hilary Benn or other similarly class contests.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Another form of Turing Test: passed

    "An AI-Generated Artwork Won First Place at a State Fair Fine Arts Competition, and Artists Are Pissed
    J
    ason Allen's AI-generated work "Théâtre D'opéra Spatial" took first place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

    Seems like old news - programmes have been creating music soundalikes of classical masters for years I believe, which are indistinguishable from the real thing.

    We know there will be a market for the equivalent of 'hand made' artwork produced by real human beings, like art produced be a chimpanzee not being 'real' art because of lack of intended meaning or whatever, the uninformed observer won't be able to tell the difference.
    I'm imagining Victorian Leon encountering photography for the first time.
    And, what, saying it was a complete and utter gamechanger for absolutely everything, fine art included?

    Wasn't it? Do you think say Guernica would look like it did in the absence of photography?
    Lots of experts are making your analogy. This is a revolution as big as the advent of photography and then film in visual art, in the 19th century

    I suspect it is even bigger than that

    For a start, it will be ALL art, literature included
    Travel hacks and airport fiction writers probably the most at risk.

    I was recently at an AI/machine learning meeting on health care. It will be great for sense checking things, and provides general physicians with capabilities of niche specialists in those areas, particularly in data extraction. It cannot at present exceed its human instructors.

    Much more interesting will be when it can do alien domains of intelligence, rather than just our narrow view of it. This recent book on the forms of non human intelligence is on my reading list.

    Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?: Frans de Waal https://amzn.eu/d/eecDEx5


    Actually, travel hacks will be some of the last. Because AI can't travel, drink free wine, see a view, have chats with Russians in Georgia, etc

    Thriller writers are much more at risk. An AI will master that algorithm within the decade, probs

    A friend of mine is reading that same book and telling me all about clever octopuses. Yes I agree we will discover NEW ways of thinking
    AI can copy other people's work and generate new conversations, so perfectly capable of travel writing. It will be a convincing formulaic simulacrum, but there is a market for that.

    It will change medicine, but there is a human part to medicine that is way beyond mere data analysis that it will struggle with.

    This book is also on my list.

    Ways of Being: Beyond Human Intelligence https://amzn.eu/d/6xYI7vn
    I predict lots of people in every profession will be keenly whistling and telling themselves exactly what you are telling yourself: "I will be fine, my job is unique, and safe from automation"

    In reality I am not sure any job is safe forever

    GPs are distinctly at risk in terms of diagnosing stuff. Put AI on a zoom call with a convincing fake voice, let it listen to your symptoms, it will tell you what's wrong with you, probably better than a human. It will never get tired or go on strike or demand payment or kill old people with heroin. Probably
    Any particular job might go - fletchers and coopers, reeves and law copyists are in less demand than once.

    But jobs as a whole don't and won't go. The world (at least the bits of it that sort of work) is organised as a job creation scheme. This is essential to civil order, and also essential to the capitalist principal of how to get rich: You can only get rich by selling something to people who have money to spend. "Prosperous neighbours make good customers". (The opposite of mercantilism).

    This principle does not require, but is helped by the modern trend of getting people to buy stuff they don't need with money they don't (yet) have. This creates oceans of further jobs in financial services as well.



    Er no.

    All previous automation and “destruction of jobs” has created… even more jobs. This is why @Foxy can laze around curing the sick in the NHS instead of working as a serf 16 hours a day. Because we automated the shit out of agriculture.

    If AI actually reduced the required work to produce goods to zero, then you’d end up with nearly everything costing next to nothing. The bit where Capitalism and Communism finally meet.
This discussion has been closed.