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Truss has managed to avoid a set piece interview throughout whole campaign – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageTruss has managed to avoid a set piece interview throughout whole campaign – politicalbetting.com

The Conservative leadership candidate Liz Truss is very fond of describing things as a disgrace and one of her most watched YouTube video is of her using that term to describe UK cheese sales.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,289
    Test
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    I think it's deeds not words that people care about now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,174
    Literally no one is talking about this.
    Apparently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,996
    Not encouraging, is it? Perhaps she couldn't figure out what Maggie tribute-act gear to wear.

    If you had to have somebody to sit down with Putin to deliver an ultimatum, she would probably be bottom of my long list...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,665
    Thatcher had her Willy, but Truss has no balls.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Sweden’s principal centre-right party, the Moderates (remember Fredrik Reinfeldt and Carl Bildt?) is about to get absolutely spanked at the GE on 11 September.

    The current leader Ulf Kristersson has made a dreadful error of judgment by cosying up to the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Voters had been drifting away from the Moderates, but now it’s a flood.

    Today it is clear: the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the once mighty Moderates to be the largest opposition party:

    SD 20.6% (+3.1)
    M 15.8% (-4.0)

    Echos of the Tory hard-right completely routing the wet/one-nation wing.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,465
    She's been leading for the whole campaign so why take the risk?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    edited August 30
    fpt

    Good morning

    I understand a conservative spokesperson has admitted this morning that the campaign for the leadership has gone on too long and the rules need to be reviewed

    You don't say

    The damage Brady and the 1922 have done to the party is unforgiveable and may well be seen in the next GE

    As far as Truss is concerned I have no problem with her cancelling a BBC interview if she announces a comprehensive support package for the public and businesses which seem to be at breaking point

    However, I hope that celebrities, footballers and company bosses etc are expected to pay their own way

    Maybe it’s not the length of the Conservative leadership campaign that is the problem, but the quality of the candidates?

    It's a good selection of candidates. One seemingly mad previous party leader clone who will say anything to gain favour with the (160k-strong) electorate; and one grey, professorial type who is apparently telling it like it is and as a result is 1/20 with the bookies to win.

    While the Conservative Party membership is a small, select band it is by no means untypical of a large proportion of the electorate as a whole, both Cons and Lab, who want to hear a certain message delivered in a certain way and don't want to hear the obverse.

    Which means that actually the problem is not with of the candidates, but with the electorate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,665
    Mr. Tokyo, but is it a risk?

    How bad would she have to be to lose?

    It looks like cowardice, because it is. In that, she's quite akin to Boris Johnson.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    Not sure about this, there's a final hustings in London for her to get through, and as it's London there'll probably be more media coverage than average.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    "Many of Truss's ambitions depend on the health of the public finances, so her team has insisted on making large decisions without examining the health of the public finances" - I'm barely paraphrasing https://on.ft.com/3AXHP6Y via @FT https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1564493077577883648/photo/1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,030
    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    edited August 30
    She’s the Foreign Secretary, currently dealing with Ukraine, Iraq and a bunch of other problems in the world, as well as the leadership campaign.

    Why would she want to spend half an hour talking about the energy problem with an idiot like Robinson, when the complex, carefully-considered, multi-agency response that is required, is still a few weeks away?

    The problem is mainstream media entitlement in a digital world.

    That said, when she announces the plan, first to Parliament as these things should be, it will be reasonable for her to speak to the media about the plan.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    If she wants to paint the narrative that the media is a hotbed of left wing, anti-UK types then it works quite well for her to avoid them for the sake of her party.

    And to extend the analogy of my previous post, plenty on the left see the media as a mouthpiece and tool of the right wing establishment and hence for a would be party leader to avoid it will likewise be seen as a sensible move.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,465

    Mr. Tokyo, but is it a risk?

    How bad would she have to be to lose?

    It looks like cowardice, because it is. In that, she's quite akin to Boris Johnson.

    Yes, it's a risk. The interviewer would obviously be out to get her because a Sarah-Palin-esque car crash would be fun, and she loses if at any point in the hour or so of the interview she slips up, says something stupid-sounding, says something that upsets the base, or says something that alienates the general electorate. In exchange for which the upside is - if everything goes well, she may slightly impress voters in a contest she's already winning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,174
    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,127
    edited August 30
    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287
    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    Old lady Brady dropped a bollock by announcing such a long-winded timetable - an error that Sunak could have obviated by bowing out once it was clear (Which was a few weeks ago) that he did not have enough support, and someone; anyone - which is in reality Truss (whatever one thinks of her ideas) needed to desperately start governing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    Nigelb said:

    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.

    Following the pandemic reaction we are in a world where people expect support, and a lot of it, whenever there is an exogenous shock.

    No idea if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it is where we are.

    The interesting thing of course is that the candidate who provided such support in previous circumstances is a 1/20 shot to win the contest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,174

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    17.5 Rishi Sunak 6%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18.5 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    You are not getting it, David.

    Didn't Boris beg to hang on as Prime Minister precisely so there would be someone's hand on the tiller during these choppy times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    edited August 30
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.

    Following the pandemic reaction we are in a world where people expect support, and a lot of it, whenever there is an exogenous shock.

    No idea if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it is where we are.

    The interesting thing of course is that the candidate who provided such support in previous circumstances is a 1/20 shot to win the contest.
    Well it started with the banks tbh. & the candidate that provided previous support is not the 1/20 shot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
    Yes, if there is a good way for the party to change leaders whilst in office they have yet to find it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,030
    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    I agree if it continues when she's PM.

    But at the moment it isn't necessary.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    Ducking scrutiny helps her get the job.

    And is further evidence she will be very bad at it.

    Continuity BoZo...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
    So the party feared another coronation would not give the incoming Prime Minister experience of debate, answering questions and being interviewed. Clearly not a theory shared by Liz Truss.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,465
    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    The practical problem is that the party isn't representative of the country, and it's hard to appeal to the one without losing the other. Once she wins the leadership the party won't matter much any more, but until then, wherever there's a STFU option, it's wise to take it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    You are not getting it, David.

    Didn't Boris beg to hang on as Prime Minister precisely so there would be someone's hand on the tiller during these choppy times.
    I thought it was so he could have his wedding party at Chequers, be in office a few more days than someone else and collect his medal from Ukraine. Silly me.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.

    Following the pandemic reaction we are in a world where people expect support, and a lot of it, whenever there is an exogenous shock.

    No idea if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it is where we are.

    The interesting thing of course is that the candidate who provided such support in previous circumstances is a 1/20 shot to win the contest.
    Well it started with the banks tbh. & the candidate that provided previous support is not the 1/20 shot.
    No one found themselves with an extra £20 in their pockets when the banks were bailed out. The link between the government action and the man on the street was too tenuous. As indeed was the situation of the shareholders (ultimately who were mostly the man on the street also), who of course the government effectively "took" £20 from.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,148
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    Old lady Brady dropped a bollock by announcing such a long-winded timetable - an error that Sunak could have obviated by bowing out once it was clear (Which was a few weeks ago) that he did not have enough support, and someone; anyone - which is in reality Truss (whatever one thinks of her ideas) needed to desperately start governing.
    3 errors:-

    1. Not having a final MPs vote between the last 2 candidates to see who had the most support.

    2. Making the hustings last so long. 4 weeks maximum.

    3. Sending out the ballots before the hustings had concluded.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    You are not getting it, David.

    Didn't Boris beg to hang on as Prime Minister precisely so there would be someone's hand on the tiller during these choppy times.
    I thought it was so he could have his wedding party at Chequers, be in office a few more days than someone else and collect his medal from Ukraine. Silly me.
    That is the bit I really don't understand. Why did Boris want to hang on given we can now see it was not to do anything as Prime Minister, cement his legacy or even mooch about in Chequers for three months?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    You are not getting it, David.

    Didn't Boris beg to hang on as Prime Minister precisely so there would be someone's hand on the tiller during these choppy times.
    Hmm.. I'd have the order of guilt for there being no effective PM as follows:

    Brady / 1922 committee. The second half (members part) of the contest was always far too long. Going over the announced price cap change was always forseeable.
    Sunak - Should have bowed out when it was clear he didn't have the support needed from members. That also was a while ago.
    ------
    ------
    ------
    Boris - Didn't need to have all those holidays, but the reality is as an outgoing PM he shouldn't be making big decisions and doesn't have the authority to do so. He was a caretaker through the whole process and credit to him hasn't entertained the wilder fantasies of some of his more wacko support such as Cruddas that wished to see him as some sort of modern dictator.
    Truss - Perhaps she could have given more concrete plans whilst running. My Gov't will do X, Y, Z on day one. But she needed to focus on becoming PM within the rules of the game - which she's done. She couldn't have forced Sunak to step down or Brady to announce a shorter contest.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,148
    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    So unlike Mrs T who understood that a crucial part of leadership is to argue your case and persuade and teach. She did that until we were sick of hearing from her but she understood that being able to make your case is vital to leadership and not just doing it to those who agree with you already.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,665
    Mr. JohnL, he wanted to be PM for longer than May.

    It's a pointless pissing contest reason. All about his ego, hang the national interest. Very in keeping with Boris Johnson generally.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
    So the party feared another coronation would not give the incoming Prime Minister experience of debate, answering questions and being interviewed. Clearly not a theory shared by Liz Truss.
    She has been debating with Rishi and she has got better at it as a result, if from a very low base. She has changed her position on a variety of matters as a result too which has prevented missteps once she is in office. I suspect the problem is that if she gives a major interview now she will be asked a lot of questions about the energy crisis to which she does not yet have answers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.

    Following the pandemic reaction we are in a world where people expect support, and a lot of it, whenever there is an exogenous shock.

    No idea if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it is where we are.

    The interesting thing of course is that the candidate who provided such support in previous circumstances is a 1/20 shot to win the contest.
    Well it started with the banks tbh. & the candidate that provided previous support is not the 1/20 shot.
    No one found themselves with an extra £20 in their pockets when the banks were bailed out. The link between the government action and the man on the street was too tenuous. As indeed was the situation of the shareholders (ultimately who were mostly the man on the street also), who of course the government effectively "took" £20 from.
    People know the banks certainly found themselves with an extra £20 in their pockets with the bailouts and subsequent quantitative easing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340

    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    The practical problem is that the party isn't representative of the country, and it's hard to appeal to the one without losing the other. Once she wins the leadership the party won't matter much any more, but until then, wherever there's a STFU option, it's wise to take it.
    Even if we accept Liz Truss is not frit but Machiavellian in her pursuit of power, why not immediately defuse the story by telling Nick Robinson he can have first interview after 6th September when it is too late (and too early) to change any votes?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,824

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748

    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    The practical problem is that the party isn't representative of the country, and it's hard to appeal to the one without losing the other. Once she wins the leadership the party won't matter much any more, but until then, wherever there's a STFU option, it's wise to take it.
    Even if we accept Liz Truss is not frit but Machiavellian in her pursuit of power, why not immediately defuse the story by telling Nick Robinson he can have first interview after 6th September when it is too late (and too early) to change any votes?
    Sounds like she's assuming she's won. Which she has, but as a candidate you can't say this bit out loud till the results are actually announced. A bit like waiting for presents on Christmas day.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,876
    Does anyone understand what the point of her refusing is? The outcome of the leadership contest is surely decided already.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    You are not getting it, David.

    Didn't Boris beg to hang on as Prime Minister precisely so there would be someone's hand on the tiller during these choppy times.
    I hope that's a tiller he's got his hand on.

    And whilst I get the frustration with the length of this election at this time, expecting the likely loser to pull out early would be a lousy precedent for democracy. Besides, Sunak may be of the view that Truss will be such a bad PM that hanging on, even for a one percent chance of stopping her, is worth it. That's what candidates do, and well done them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,465

    Nigelb said:

    Yet it looks very likely she will be PM *despite* it. Her aim is to become PM. That is what she is concentrating on.

    And if she can do it without undergoing a set-piece interview, why do one? Even for a good media performer, the downsides might be greater than the upsides.

    That should change when she's PM. But for the moment it appears to have worked for her.

    (And I'd also add most media interviewers are hopeless; more concerned with generating headlines and gotchas than getting genuine insights into politicians or policies.)

    She's spent weeks talking to the party, and can't spend an hour talking to the country.

    That. Is. Pathetic.
    The practical problem is that the party isn't representative of the country, and it's hard to appeal to the one without losing the other. Once she wins the leadership the party won't matter much any more, but until then, wherever there's a STFU option, it's wise to take it.
    Even if we accept Liz Truss is not frit but Machiavellian in her pursuit of power, why not immediately defuse the story by telling Nick Robinson he can have first interview after 6th September when it is too late (and too early) to change any votes?
    The members might catch on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,876
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
    So the party feared another coronation would not give the incoming Prime Minister experience of debate, answering questions and being interviewed. Clearly not a theory shared by Liz Truss.
    She has been debating with Rishi and she has got better at it as a result, if from a very low base. She has changed her position on a variety of matters as a result too which has prevented missteps once she is in office. I suspect the problem is that if she gives a major interview now she will be asked a lot of questions about the energy crisis to which she does not yet have answers.
    And will that problem - that if she gives an interview she will be asked a lot of questions - somehow go away in the future?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    Chris said:

    Does anyone understand what the point of her refusing is? The outcome of the leadership contest is surely decided already.

    She's frit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287
    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Things not looking good for Truss or the Tories. Lots of reliably Tory voters I know are done with the party because of the indulgent leadership process. Every single one of them thinks it should have been over weeks ago with either the party calling an end or Rishi bowing out as unlikely to win or both candidates agreeing to bring the date forwards.

    Most new leaders get a few months where the public are open to their ideas, I don't think Liz Truss will get that. The manner in which both candidates have refused to put the country ahead of their own ambition has poisoned their well. Rishi, specifically, deserves a lot of ire for not being responsible and calling time on the race three weeks ago when it became clear he couldn't win.

    The candidates have been trying to win a few thousand votes while the nation is sitting on a burning platform of drought, high energy prices and runaway inflation. They deserve to lose in 2024, and it's highly likely they will.

    I agree that Rishi should have given up at least 3 weeks ago but the party probably feared another coronation like May's which did her no favours. The last 3 weeks have not been a good time to not have a functioning government.
    "Fighting" and "last war" spring to mind.
    So the party feared another coronation would not give the incoming Prime Minister experience of debate, answering questions and being interviewed. Clearly not a theory shared by Liz Truss.
    She has been debating with Rishi and she has got better at it as a result, if from a very low base. She has changed her position on a variety of matters as a result too which has prevented missteps once she is in office. I suspect the problem is that if she gives a major interview now she will be asked a lot of questions about the energy crisis to which she does not yet have answers.
    And will that problem - that if she gives an interview she will be asked a lot of questions - somehow go away in the future?
    No, but she will then have office, can announce policies that Civil Servants and others have worked on, picked who is implementing those policies and know that they are getting on with it. At the moment it would seem a bit presumptious, even if she had an answer.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,485
    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    Really don’t get who’s meant to be benefiting from the “this is smart” punditry. Yes Johnson did it, so did May, so did Cameron, but what have they all got in common? Clear, demonstrated hopeless inadequacy that is on the historical record. @trussliz will certainly be the same.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1564518951639465984
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856
    Chris said:

    Does anyone understand what the point of her refusing is? The outcome of the leadership contest is surely decided already.

    I think she has Lynton Crosby, or one of his mini-mes, advising her, and it's SOP.

    If you're ahead, don't do interviews, because there's only downside. Everything else, including "she has to work out how she will run the country" is just noise.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,127
    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    I think there’s a moral dimension to it too which Jen Williams sums up succinctly:

    Is it not that there’s a moral dimension to the way politics is viewed on the left - crudely the ‘left thinks right are bad people, right just thinks left are silly people’ thing?

    https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1564224961937608704
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,012
    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    The Brexiters, and above all HMG, have been given the Sinn Fein in the 1980s treatment on TV? Come off it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited August 30
    Latest Swedish poll:

    Minority government:
    Social Democrats 30% (+2)

    Confidence & supply parties:
    Left 9% (+1)
    Centre 7% (-2)
    Greens 4% (nc)

    Government total: 51%

    Rightwing opposition bloc:
    Sweden Democrats 21% (+3)
    Moderates 16% (-4)
    Christian Democrats 6% (nc)
    Liberals 5% (-1)

    Opposition total: 48%

    (Novus; 26-27 August; +/- change from last GE 2018)

    Polling day is 11 September, but voting started last week. Not just postal voting, but physical voting in polling stations, usually libraries.

    Threshold is 4%.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    Looks likely that this government is over before it has begun.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,575

    She's been leading for the whole campaign so why take the risk?

    This is right. Her critics about this tactical thing overlap with her critics generally. I don't want her to win, like all normal people. But even if you support Arsenal you can understand why Spurs defend their 1-0 lead in the last four minutes by going for the corner, putting 11 men in defence and taking no risks in the penalty area.

    At this moment Mrs T is accountable to a tiny group of strange people, the Tory membership. Not the BBC, not PBers and not me.

    Soon she will be accountable to parliament and the voters. Again, not the BBC.

    BTW There is no such thing as a political interview anyone would actually watch where the interviewer wants the politician to do well.



  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,045

    Latest Swedish poll:

    Minority government:
    Social Democrats 30% (+2)

    Confidence & supply parties:
    Left 9% (+1)
    Centre 7% (-2)
    Greens 4% (nc)

    Government total: 51%

    Rightwing opposition bloc:
    Sweden Democrats 21% (+3)
    Moderates 16% (-4)
    Christian Democrats 6% (nc)
    Liberals 5% (-1)

    Opposition total: 48%

    (Novus; 26-27 August; +/- change from last GE 2018)

    Polling day is 11 September, but voting started last week. Not just postal voting, but physical voting in polling stations, usually libraries.

    Threshold is 4%.

    So Social Democrat minority government continues in office but main swing to the Sweden Democrats
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    algarkirk said:

    This is right. Her critics about this tactical thing overlap with her critics generally. I don't want her to win, like all normal people. But even if you support Arsenal you can understand why Spurs defend their 1-0 lead in the last four minutes by going for the corner, putting 11 men in defence and taking no risks in the penalty area.

    At this moment Mrs T is accountable to a tiny group of strange people, the Tory membership. Not the BBC, not PBers and not me.

    Soon she will be accountable to parliament and the voters. Again, not the BBC.

    BTW There is no such thing as a political interview anyone would actually watch where the interviewer wants the politician to do well.

    When she comes a cropper (I was going to say eventually, but it might be in less than a week) whoever succeeds her will cite her lack of media interviews as one of the reasons she must be removed.

    The greatest irony is the person making that claim might well be BoZo the fridge...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,192
    Fishing said:

    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.

    The "stopped clock" theory of economic prognosticators
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Keir Starmer is a dud.

    ‘Labour reject claims party will change constitution to ban coalitions with SNP’

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20828495.labour-reject-claims-party-will-change-constitution-ban-coalitions-snp/

    The man doesn’t know his arse from his elbow. That daft policy lasted two days.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,575
    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    But which reality? The media are endlessly repeating examples of the problem of "By small business energy bill has gone from £2000 to £8 trillion" etc. But I am not hearing thoughts about solutions except further raids on our great grandchildren's piggy bank.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,045

    Sweden’s principal centre-right party, the Moderates (remember Fredrik Reinfeldt and Carl Bildt?) is about to get absolutely spanked at the GE on 11 September.

    The current leader Ulf Kristersson has made a dreadful error of judgment by cosying up to the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Voters had been drifting away from the Moderates, but now it’s a flood.

    Today it is clear: the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the once mighty Moderates to be the largest opposition party:

    SD 20.6% (+3.1)
    M 15.8% (-4.0)

    Echos of the Tory hard-right completely routing the wet/one-nation wing.

    He hasn't when on the latest poll the right of centre Opposition block will be on 48% combined with the Sweden Democrats compared to only 40% for the Opposition Alliance block at the last election without the Sweden Democrats but including the Centre Party who now back the Social Democrats.

    Sweden has PR not FPTP so the main thing is the strength of the block not each party
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162
    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    I would say that it is more that the dominant media culture (among the people working in media - the staff at the Sun, famously, aren't page 3 readers) is "Grim Up North London". See Private Eye.

    This was one reason for the very long run for New Labour - their apparent values were a 100% match for this. Until the Iraq War.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,127
    From that Rob Ford series of threads:

    A starting assumption that those who voted for a party you oppose in the previous election are for this reason bad people who endorse a whole host of bad things doesn't seem like a good frame of mind for persuading them.

    So if that starting assumption is more widespread among one party than the other, as it seems to be with Lab vs Con and Remain vs Leave, that might put one side at a significant disadvantage. Disliking the people you want to persuade is an obstacle to persuasion.

    That seems like a problem for parties out of office, and seeking to regain it. Maybe being willing to judge voters with different views less, and listen to them more, might be a more effective strategy?


    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564296167944511489


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
    That's rubbish. The dominant view on exchange rate pegs among economists is that a free float or a currency union are the only stable outcomes. And there is a whole economics literature on optimal currency areas devoted to analysing what preconditions are necessary for a currency union to work (tldr is that the euro area is not an optimal currency area).
    Minford is a politically motivated hack who employs ludicrous modelling assumptions to generate his forecasts. Like a stopped clock he will be right occasionally, but as an economist I find him an embarrassment to the profession.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    Latest Swedish poll:

    Minority government:
    Social Democrats 30% (+2)

    Confidence & supply parties:
    Left 9% (+1)
    Centre 7% (-2)
    Greens 4% (nc)

    Government total: 51%

    Rightwing opposition bloc:
    Sweden Democrats 21% (+3)
    Moderates 16% (-4)
    Christian Democrats 6% (nc)
    Liberals 5% (-1)

    Opposition total: 48%

    (Novus; 26-27 August; +/- change from last GE 2018)

    Polling day is 11 September, but voting started last week. Not just postal voting, but physical voting in polling stations, usually libraries.

    Threshold is 4%.

    So Social Democrat minority government continues in office but main swing to the Sweden Democrats
    Maybe.

    Swedish polls are very, very accurate historically, so they are probably spot-on this time too.

    BUT, please note that both the Greens and the Liberals are very near the 4% threshold. If the Greens get kicked out of parliament then the Social Democrats are probably screwed. Same regarding Liberals on other side. If they both get kicked out then zero sum game.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,045
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Good morning

    I understand a conservative spokesperson has admitted this morning that the campaign for the leadership has gone on too long and the rules need to be reviewed

    You don't say

    The damage Brady and the 1922 have done to the party is unforgiveable and may well be seen in the next GE

    As far as Truss is concerned I have no problem with her cancelling a BBC interview if she announces a comprehensive support package for the public and businesses which seem to be at breaking point

    However, I hope that celebrities, footballers and company bosses etc are expected to pay their own way

    Maybe it’s not the length of the Conservative leadership campaign that is the problem, but the quality of the candidates?

    It's a good selection of candidates. One seemingly mad previous party leader clone who will say anything to gain favour with the (160k-strong) electorate; and one grey, professorial type who is apparently telling it like it is and as a result is 1/20 with the bookies to win.

    While the Conservative Party membership is a small, select band it is by no means untypical of a large proportion of the electorate as a whole, both Cons and Lab, who want to hear a certain message delivered in a certain way and don't want to hear the obverse.

    Which means that actually the problem is not with of the candidates, but with the electorate.
    If Conservative members alone had picked the next Conservative leader then Kemi Badenoch would almost certainly be heading to No 10.

    Truss will only become PM as Tory MPs gave Tory members a choice of her or Sunak
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,343
    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    “Dominant media culture”? Sure. The top selling tabloids and “broadsheet” are well known for their Labour/Remain sympathies.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,287
    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
    How often is he right? Ambrose Evans Pritchard springs to mind. He predicted 4,672,565 of the last 1 financial crashes.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,781

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
    That's rubbish. The dominant view on exchange rate pegs among economists is that a free float or a currency union are the only stable outcomes. And there is a whole economics literature on optimal currency areas devoted to analysing what preconditions are necessary for a currency union to work (tldr is that the euro area is not an optimal currency area).
    Minford is a politically motivated hack who employs ludicrous modelling assumptions to generate his forecasts. Like a stopped clock he will be right occasionally, but as an economist I find him an embarrassment to the profession.
    This is the view of the latter-day 365.

  • Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,856
    algarkirk said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    But which reality? The media are endlessly repeating examples of the problem of "By small business energy bill has gone from £2000 to £8 trillion" etc. But I am not hearing thoughts about solutions except further raids on our great grandchildren's piggy bank.

    Perhaps there aren't good solutions.

    But whilst raiding our great grandchildren's piggy banks is a bad thing, it may be unavoidable.

    The choice being whether to do it to anticipate and mitigate problems, or to clean up the mess afterwards.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    edited August 30
    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    edited August 30
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I don't buy your short term cheer and long term gloom. Long term there's enough power in the north sea for everyone in the nation through wind and tidal, and a switch from gas to ASHPs. Short term the situation is absolutely fucking calamitous.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,906
    edited August 30
    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?
  • Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    None of them?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    edited August 30

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Not to mention the two television interviewers Liz Truss declined, viz Andrew Neil and Nick Robinson, both bat for the blue team.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,162

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
    That's rubbish. The dominant view on exchange rate pegs among economists is that a free float or a currency union are the only stable outcomes. And there is a whole economics literature on optimal currency areas devoted to analysing what preconditions are necessary for a currency union to work (tldr is that the euro area is not an optimal currency area).
    Minford is a politically motivated hack who employs ludicrous modelling assumptions to generate his forecasts. Like a stopped clock he will be right occasionally, but as an economist I find him an embarrassment to the profession.
    Growing up in the 80s, there was a quiet but steady background of reports from the Third World - dictator X has set another currency peg against the dollar. Economy collapses, black market explodes etc.

    By the end of the 80s, exchange-rates-by-fiat had gone out of fashion, even among the really loopy dictators.

    When the ERM was proposed, I was WTF?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,968

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    Theresa May wasn't noted for her ability to think on her feet but she still easily won her first PMQ exchange.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,886
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,289

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    Theresa May wasn't noted for her ability to think on her feet but she still easily won her first PMQ exchange.
    She wasn't facing Starmer
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,340
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,748

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    Theresa May wasn't noted for her ability to think on her feet but she still easily won her first PMQ exchange.
    Truss will have the whole of the Tory benches united behind her. Even if she's shit every word is going to be cheered to the rafters whilst Starmer will be barracked very heavily - with Mr Speaker struggling to control the rowdiness. It'll be sold as a win for Truss.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    edited August 30

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,680
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Predictable, but sector bosses have apparently been trying to get some response from government for nearly six months.

    Thousands of UK pubs ‘face closure’ without energy bills support
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/thousands-of-uk-pubs-face-closure-without-energy-bills-support

    Pubs will be far from the only small businesses facing closure this winter.

    Following the pandemic reaction we are in a world where people expect support, and a lot of it, whenever there is an exogenous shock.

    No idea if that is a good thing or a bad thing but it is where we are.

    The interesting thing of course is that the candidate who provided such support in previous circumstances is a 1/20 shot to win the contest.
    Well it started with the banks tbh. & the candidate that provided previous support is not the 1/20 shot.
    No one found themselves with an extra £20 in their pockets when the banks were bailed out. The link between the government action and the man on the street was too tenuous. As indeed was the situation of the shareholders (ultimately who were mostly the man on the street also), who of course the government effectively "took" £20 from.
    People know the banks certainly found themselves with an extra £20 in their pockets with the bailouts and subsequent quantitative easing.
    What proportion of the population do you think understands the concept of quantitative easing? A bit like subsidiarity.
  • Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    Theresa May wasn't noted for her ability to think on her feet but she still easily won her first PMQ exchange.
    Yes, good point - but, this time it's different. She (Truss) simply hasn't put in the time on the training pitch prior to the big match. She's not match fit for a contest with a man who (whatever we might think of his politics) is a barrister regarded by his peers as being of above average ability. She won't have anywhere to hide.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    During the war (WW II that is, amongst the myriad others) we kids would sing

    "whistle while you work
    whistle while you work
    Mussolini is a wienie
    Hitler is a jerk"
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,394

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
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