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Truss has managed to avoid a set piece interview throughout whole campaign – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited August 2022
    kjh said:

    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?

    The average Tory voter is now a skilled working class Leave voter or a pensioner who voted Leave.

    The average PB poster however is a middle class graduate who voted Remain or at most voted Leave but only to go to EEA
  • Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    Theresa May wasn't noted for her ability to think on her feet but she still easily won her first PMQ exchange.
    She wasn't facing Starmer
    Because Starmer has shown an ability to think on his feet at PMQs?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,306
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Good morning everybody. Nice and bright here; hope everyone enjoyed the bank holiday.

    I too was wondering what was meant by the major scandal.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    The forensic myth again. He might do OK because she is so useless but he really isn't all that either.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,930
    kjh said:

    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?

    I'm sure someone could set up ukipbetting for them.
  • The average Tory voters is a pensioner. Full stop.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I don't buy your short term cheer and long term gloom. Long term there's enough power in the north sea for everyone in the nation through wind and tidal, and a switch from gas to ASHPs. Short term the situation is absolutely fucking calamitous.
    There is enough offshore wind capacity to power *Europe* in the North Sea.

    LNG tankers are being built at a rate. They will be coming online in the next year or 2. Europe is investing in LNG capacity, finally.

    The problem is not so much natural gas availability - it's that natural gas supply chains are not easy to reconfigure. So the oil price is heading down- the market has reconfigured. With gas, this takes longer, especially since Europe was depending on gas pipelines, not LNG.

    It is worth noting that a ferocious campaign was waged against LNG in German politics. To the point that some were demanding that pressure be exerted on *Poland* not to build an LNG terminal, since it was dangerous and would mean importing gas from bad people. Rather than the nice gas from that Mr Putin. Yes. Indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
  • Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    She's not quite as bad as Boris. He engineered a crisis to get the top job, which Truss hasn't. On the other hand, she has sought the role more assiduously than May, who just had to not drive a clown car to get into Number Ten.

    But yes, incoming events look grim. She has elbowed her way to the front of the queue, grabbed the prize and not noticed how loudly it is ticking.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Sweden’s principal centre-right party, the Moderates (remember Fredrik Reinfeldt and Carl Bildt?) is about to get absolutely spanked at the GE on 11 September.

    The current leader Ulf Kristersson has made a dreadful error of judgment by cosying up to the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Voters had been drifting away from the Moderates, but now it’s a flood.

    Today it is clear: the Sweden Democrats have overtaken the once mighty Moderates to be the largest opposition party:

    SD 20.6% (+3.1)
    M 15.8% (-4.0)

    Echos of the Tory hard-right completely routing the wet/one-nation wing.

    He hasn't when on the latest poll the right of centre Opposition block will be on 48% combined with the Sweden Democrats compared to only 40% for the Opposition Alliance block at the last election without the Sweden Democrats but including the Centre Party who now back the Social Democrats.

    Sweden has PR not FPTP so the main thing is the strength of the block not each party
    If the Sweden Democrats become the largest Opposition party (and I think they will), the Rightwing bloc will collapse. Kristersson’s sweaty face was a sorry sight when journalists confronted him yesterday. Classic bunny in headlights. He has totally fluffed it and he knows it. Ditto Liberals who are obviously completely embarrassed at landing in the “wrong” bloc. Only the Christian Democrats look pleased.

    Jimmie Åkesson and Magdalena Andersson are laughing their heads off.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    The forensic myth again. He might do OK because she is so useless but he really isn't all that either.
    This comes from mythology about what "leading lawyers" do.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020
    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    Yeah, as a kid it was terrifying but looking back her willingness and ability to engage in debate was both admirable and remarkable. Only Blair has come close.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
  • DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    You don't see it because you aren't running a small business.

    The people who are running small businesses are seeing it. They are increasingly afraid for their ability to survive at all. "Many of our members say the eye-watering energy bills could be the final nail in the coffin as they struggle to get through winter."

    https://www.fsb.org.uk/resources-page/energy-help-is-needed-now-small-firms-urge-as-many-struggle-to-get-through-winter.html
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The average Tory voters is a pensioner. Full stop.

    No they isn't. Exclamation mark.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    The forensic myth again. He might do OK because she is so useless but he really isn't all that either.
    This comes from mythology about what "leading lawyers" do.
    Starmer may not be any good, but he doesn't have to be. All he has to do is be better than Truss - and I think he will be, certainly in the bizarre circus that is PMQs.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    She's not quite as bad as Boris. He engineered a crisis to get the top job, which Truss hasn't. On the other hand, she has sought the role more assiduously than May, who just had to not drive a clown car to get into Number Ten.

    But yes, incoming events look grim. She has elbowed her way to the front of the queue, grabbed the prize and not noticed how loudly it is ticking.
    Yet others criticised my suggestion that Kwarteng had noticed how loud the ticking is, which was why he chose to keep clear of this leadership challenge.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    We must all hope that all three of those things come to pass.

    1% seems about right. What % would you put on the likelihood?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,930

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    The forensic myth again. He might do OK because she is so useless but he really isn't all that either.
    This comes from mythology about what "leading lawyers" do.
    Starmer may not be any good, but he doesn't have to be. All he has to do is be better than Truss - and I think he will be, certainly in the bizarre circus that is PMQs.
    It's all relative.

    If there's a shinier shit, it's more popular. It's still shit though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    The forensic myth again. He might do OK because she is so useless but he really isn't all that either.
    This comes from mythology about what "leading lawyers" do.
    Starmer may not be any good, but he doesn't have to be. All he has to do is be better than Truss - and I think he will be, certainly in the bizarre circus that is PMQs.
    Bit of a retreat from "brutal monstering."
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773

    algarkirk said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    But which reality? The media are endlessly repeating examples of the problem of "By small business energy bill has gone from £2000 to £8 trillion" etc. But I am not hearing thoughts about solutions except further raids on our great grandchildren's piggy bank.

    Perhaps there aren't good solutions.

    But whilst raiding our great grandchildren's piggy banks is a bad thing, it may be unavoidable.

    The choice being whether to do it to anticipate and mitigate problems, or to clean up the mess afterwards.
    I have a lot of sympathy with this view about no good solutions. At what point does this stop.

    Since the Brown and banking crash, and before the public finances properly recovered, we have had covid, Ukraine and its follow on energy crisis.

    The answer to each has been "raid the grandchildren's piggy bank, this is a special case" and each has come before we have started to sort of the financial problems of the last one (Ie pay off the debt).

    So should we not be innovative this time and say all solutions are welcome except kicking the can down the road to our grandchildren?

    For, at the same time, in a time of high taxes I cannot think of a single big spend area (NHS, pensions, social security, social care, defence, education) which is not seeking massive additional expenditure from the same piggy bank.

    There is much wealth in this country. The government's net assets are roughly minus £2 trillion. Why look to the one body that has no cash at all to do the bail out?

  • eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    Yeah, as a kid it was terrifying but looking back her willingness and ability to engage in debate was both admirable and remarkable. Only Blair has come close.
    Or even Saturday Superstore;

    https://youtu.be/YdTkNz2KgcI

    Thatcher and Blair were missionaries, trying to convert others to their point of view.

    The easier way of winning at politics is to find the people who already agree with you, whip them up into a frenzy and make sure they turn out.

    The second approach works too well for the country's good, which is why everyone has to do it now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,872

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    You don't see it because you aren't running a small business.

    The people who are running small businesses are seeing it. They are increasingly afraid for their ability to survive at all. "Many of our members say the eye-watering energy bills could be the final nail in the coffin as they struggle to get through winter."

    https://www.fsb.org.uk/resources-page/energy-help-is-needed-now-small-firms-urge-as-many-struggle-to-get-through-winter.html
    I am running a small business and have been for the last 20 odd years. I am also a director of a larger business.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    On the other hand, it will allow her to claim a massive swing towards her favour when she narrowly wins her first vote of no confidence. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1564173495726215168
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Finland and Sweden making the cut this morning. Come on Denmark and Norway: pull your bloody weight!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    We must all hope that all three of those things come to pass.

    1% seems about right. What % would you put on the likelihood?
    The second is inevitable, to an extent. There will be a dip in price, when the storage is full and before deep winter kicks in.

    The third is nearly certain.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    None of them?
    Well, quite.
    And I agree that the print media is predominantly some way right of centre. But print media has been dwindling in influence for some time, and is now much, much less influential than broadcast and online media - both of which is dominated by the left.
    And I'm not talking about news, or at least not mainly. Just as few people bought the Sun or the Mail for their news coverage, but get a worldview from the lifestyle content, few people choose, say, the BBC, or MSN, for news content, but will pick up a worldview from them. They may not agree with that worldview, but it will normalise left-wing views in a way that right wing views don't really get for left-wing people.

    I'm not claiming that this is some insidious plot, by the way. It just happens to be the case that the most pervasive media content is on platforms with a largely left-wing worldview.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    We must all hope that all three of those things come to pass.

    1% seems about right. What % would you put on the likelihood?
    The second is inevitable, to an extent. There will be a dip in price, when the storage is full and before deep winter kicks in.

    The third is nearly certain.
    U.K. Inflation Crisis Will Last Years, Not Months, Haldane Says

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/u-k-inflation-crisis-will-last-years-not-months-haldane-says
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    Thats's the point of the way it's designed. "Saloon Bar Common Sense, none of that politics nonsense."

    Think about the politicians who sell "I don't do politics. I speak for the common man", around the world.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Sun's political role is to discourage its naturally Labour-inclined readers from taking an interest in politics. And so its "apolitical" stance is unsurprising. Its readers are the least likely to vote of any major newspaper.
    I have a friend who is a Sun reader (and almost certainly a Leaver) who fits this profile perfectly.
  • .

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    We must all hope that all three of those things come to pass.

    1% seems about right. What % would you put on the likelihood?
    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    35%

    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    95%

    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    95%

    Prices falling back to prior levels is virtually 0%, it would require significant and sustained deflation now to achieve that, but the inflation rate falling from its present highs is close to 100%.

    Even if inflation falls back to 3% (or more likely 4-5%), prices will still be significantly higher than they were only recently and it may not feel like inflation has gone away though as a result
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Guardian is just as much a designed product as the tabloids. In particular it is designed to target a rather sad audience of people whose strap line is "My life is awful and I need lots of detail about who is to blame for this, there are lots of candidates, and I am sure it's not me".

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    There are plenty of businesses which simply can't cope with a four or fivefold increase in their energy bills. It is as simple as that.
    'Adjusting to an exogenous price shock' means closure for them.

    No one expects miracles form government, but the difference between staying open and shuttering the business in quite a few sectors (see also fast food outlets, especially fish & chip shops, restaurants etc) will be whether or not they have an existing energy contract which runs into next year.

    The business of government has to be to level out that market price shock to some degree, alongside mitigating the worst of it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,872

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    Right now we are getting 47% of our energy from gas and 15% from wind. To free us of a situation where gas is the determinative cost we really need to reverse those figures. When Dogger Bank etc comes on stream we may be close to that on a good day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295

    Truss's first PMQT is going to be a bloodbath. She simply doesn't have the mental agility to think on her feet, and she knows it. Starmer is going to go into full-on barrister mode - question, pause, wait for his subject to say something slightly off-line and then monster her. It's going to be brutal.

    She is not going to enjoy her new job. Having spent her entire life working towards this goal, it is going to be a crushing personal disappointment.

    I genuinely feel sorry for her on a personal level. Events are likely to totally overcome her. She has a 1% chance of success.
    How do you rate the chances of these events?

    - A decisive Ukrainian breakthrough leading to Russia withdrawing to pre-February borders
    - Gas prices falling as the race to fill European storage capacity ends
    - Inflation falling as one-off pandemic effects get filtered out
    The second one quite high - the price is down 20% today....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    For anybody interested in solar panels for their home, somebody shared this yesterday, which looks interesting

    https://www.smartflowersolar.co.uk
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,306
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    You don't see it because you aren't running a small business.

    The people who are running small businesses are seeing it. They are increasingly afraid for their ability to survive at all. "Many of our members say the eye-watering energy bills could be the final nail in the coffin as they struggle to get through winter."

    https://www.fsb.org.uk/resources-page/energy-help-is-needed-now-small-firms-urge-as-many-struggle-to-get-through-winter.html
    I am running a small business and have been for the last 20 odd years. I am also a director of a larger business.
    Largely depends on how important electricity is among your bills. I suspect there is also a degree of alarmism in the national press which may or may not be justified.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/finlandConspiracy
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    I agree with your analysis, but not necessarily with your view (although I might be dancing on a pinhead) I see nothing wrong with producing a product for a market that is not the market you personally sit in. I don't read the Sun, but would not have any moral objections to producing it. I do however agree with you re the Daily Mail. There are industries that I couldn't work in eg tobacco. And I think the Daily Mail fits that description.

    The Sun fills a marketplace, nothing much more. The Daily Mail has additional unpleasant motives.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    There are plenty of businesses which simply can't cope with a four or fivefold increase in their energy bills. It is as simple as that.
    'Adjusting to an exogenous price shock' means closure for them.

    No one expects miracles form government, but the difference between staying open and shuttering the business in quite a few sectors (see also fast food outlets, especially fish & chip shops, restaurants etc) will be whether or not they have an existing energy contract which runs into next year.

    The business of government has to be to level out that market price shock to some degree, alongside mitigating the worst of it.
    If the price of energy was expected to permanently be at these levels it might make sense for the government to do very little.

    No-one really expects that and however, so letting hundreds of thousands of firms, including most energy suppliers, go bust because we must not interfere in a market that already has price rigged by a government quango so lets cut NI and VAT instead, is frankly bonkers.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Labour deny plan to change party constitution to rule out coalitions with SNP

    Labour has poured cold water on claims the party’s constitution could be changed to rule out any formal coalitions with the SNP.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/labour-deny-plan-to-change-party-constitution-to-rule-out-coalitions-with-snp-3822821

    Starmer = dud
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    edited August 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    For anybody interested in solar panels for their home, somebody shared this yesterday, which looks interesting

    https://www.smartflowersolar.co.uk

    What do our customers have in common?

    At £31,950 and a requirement of substantial non overlooked (Even by trees) garden space I'd say being absolubtely loaded is the main commonality.
    4 kwh/yr is the same as a decent roof system btw.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020
    Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    Yeah, as a kid it was terrifying but looking back her willingness and ability to engage in debate was both admirable and remarkable. Only Blair has come close.
    Yes it was.
    But in the defence of PMs since, the tone of interviewing has changed. Look back at interviews of the 80s; the aim of the interviewer was to elicit information. Politicians were given time to speak and to explain themselves. Interviewers were certainly well briefed and well informed and would ask tricky questions, but the aim was to understand the issue. Modern interviewers seem primarily there to catch politicians out. We mock Peston for his lack of understanding of any given issue, but the fact that Peston can rise to the top shows that combativeness is prized over incisiveness. It's no wonder politicians of all stripes are not particularly enthused by talking to the media class except on their own terms.
    Yes there is certainly blame on both sides. We live in less deferential times, which is not a totally good thing. We also have many more channels to watch plus multiple non TV media platforms. Most people wouldn't sit through Sir Robin Day asking polite complex questions if they had something else to watch. But the quality of our politicians has clearly gone down too, which is interesting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965
    edited August 2022

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work).

    This guy doesn't agree with you...



    yep it’s the same guy https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1564367715053326337/photo/1



    @PickardJE If I had predicted that the poll tax would be popular with the electorate I would simply stop predicting things https://twitter.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1564373676216164355/photo/1
    Minford is renowned in the economics profession only for being wrong about everything.
    No he isn't.

    He was right about the ERM for instance.

    Unlike most in the economics profession.
    That's rubbish. The dominant view on exchange rate pegs among economists is that a free float or a currency union are the only stable outcomes. And there is a whole economics literature on optimal currency areas devoted to analysing what preconditions are necessary for a currency union to work (tldr is that the euro area is not an optimal currency area).
    Minford is a politically motivated hack who employs ludicrous modelling assumptions to generate his forecasts. Like a stopped clock he will be right occasionally, but as an economist I find him an embarrassment to the profession.
    Yep, you can just about see the revolving bow tie as he pours forth his attention-seeking drivel.

    (Minford, I mean, not Fishing)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    You don't see it because you aren't running a small business.

    The people who are running small businesses are seeing it. They are increasingly afraid for their ability to survive at all. "Many of our members say the eye-watering energy bills could be the final nail in the coffin as they struggle to get through winter."

    https://www.fsb.org.uk/resources-page/energy-help-is-needed-now-small-firms-urge-as-many-struggle-to-get-through-winter.html
    I am running a small business and have been for the last 20 odd years. I am also a director of a larger business.
    But even in Dundee you do not deep fry your legal opinions, presumably.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Guardian is just as much a designed product as the tabloids. In particular it is designed to target a rather sad audience of people whose strap line is "My life is awful and I need lots of detail about who is to blame for this, there are lots of candidates, and I am sure it's not me".

    I inhabit the world of Guardian readers and I don't recognise this characterisation to be honest. I think it is more like "my life is nice but I worry about how long this can last and feel bad about people who's life isn't nice, clearly the Tories are to blame and how can I fix this at no real cost to myself?"
    Or, more pithily:

    "my life is nice but I worry about how long this can last and feel bad about people who's life isn't nice, clearly the Tories are to blame and how can I fix this at no real cost to myself?"
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020
    eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    If Australia is fake then who are these blokes who keep turning up to beat England at cricket?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    Right now we are getting 47% of our energy from gas and 15% from wind. To free us of a situation where gas is the determinative cost we really need to reverse those figures. When Dogger Bank etc comes on stream we may be close to that on a good day.
    When is that likely to happen?
    There is also the Morocco project. My understanding - though it is vague - is that we could be getting around a quarter of UK electricity from this by the 2030s.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Woman on R4 this morning saying how her leccie bill had gone from sub £20k to £130k.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,866

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    Though those organs not often connected to the word culture.
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
    Trouble is that only works if everyone is getting the same sort of energy and living in the same circumstances. So someone who heats their house with oil will inevitably have lower gas/electricity bills than someone doing everything on the grid. And is it right that a family with a couple of kids gets a punitive tariff when someone living on their own does not.

    I am not opposed to the idea, I just see the implementation as being completely unworkable.
  • eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    My favorite story about the naming of a country concerns Canada. Apparently when the local inhabitants were asked by some newly-arrived Europeans what the country was called, the reply was 'I don't understand you', or ca-na-da in the local lingo.

    No idea if it is true but has a nice ring to it.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    The demand for energy from renewables has shot up, because the supply of energy from Russian gas has been choked. That is what happens when there is a free market in energy supply.
  • eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    If Australia is fake then who are these blokes who keep turning up to beat England at cricket?
    Figments of our imagination. So all England - Australia Test series didn't happen.

    Except for 2005, for reasons so obvious that I mustn't explain them.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    “Once-in-a-generation discovery”: Early Medieval Monastery found in England

    An 8th-century monastery in southern England could have enjoyed similarly important status as a trade and production centre to larger towns like London and Southampton, a new excavation has revealed.

    Around 30 monasteries are known to have been established along the route of the river Thames, but barely any have been subject to archaeological investigation.

    https://www.medievalists.net/2022/08/early-medieval-monastery-england/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    Russian tourists in Kazakhstan have faced anger from locals and even fines from police for sporting pro-war Z stickers on their cars.

    "They saw this ["Z”] symbol on the back of our car. They attacked us with accusations that we are fascists. [They said] that we attacked Ukraine."


    https://twitter.com/rferl/status/1564318236279193601
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?

    The average Tory voter is now a skilled working class Leave voter or a pensioner who voted Leave.

    The average PB poster however is a middle class graduate who voted Remain or at most voted Leave but only to go to EEA
    Makes sense, but it is quite dramatic. So it will all be down to how many of each group there are and where they live.

    Any reason for limiting it to 'skilled working class leave'. What about 'unskilled leavers'? Or do you think they will be mainly Labour or non voters anyway?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,866

    Keir Starmer is a dud.

    ‘Labour reject claims party will change constitution to ban coalitions with SNP’

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20828495.labour-reject-claims-party-will-change-constitution-ban-coalitions-snp/

    The man doesn’t know his arse from his elbow. That daft policy lasted two days.

    Was it only a couple of days ago that it was being described as a master stroke on here?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    You don't see it because you aren't running a small business.

    The people who are running small businesses are seeing it. They are increasingly afraid for their ability to survive at all. "Many of our members say the eye-watering energy bills could be the final nail in the coffin as they struggle to get through winter."

    https://www.fsb.org.uk/resources-page/energy-help-is-needed-now-small-firms-urge-as-many-struggle-to-get-through-winter.html
    I am running a small business and have been for the last 20 odd years. I am also a director of a larger business.
    But even in Dundee you do not deep fry your legal opinions, presumably.
    Advocates often stink, but rarely of cooking fat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    .
    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Guardian is just as much a designed product as the tabloids. In particular it is designed to target a rather sad audience of people whose strap line is "My life is awful and I need lots of detail about who is to blame for this, there are lots of candidates, and I am sure it's not me".

    I inhabit the world of Guardian readers and I don't recognise this characterisation to be honest. I think it is more like "my life is nice but I worry about how long this can last and feel bad about people who's life isn't nice, clearly the Tories are to blame and how can I fix this at no real cost to myself?"
    Or, more pithily:

    "my life is nice but I worry about how long this can last and feel bad about people who's life isn't nice, clearly the Tories are to blame and how can I fix this at no real cost to myself?"
    Reducing it to that would encompass a rather larger group than just the Guardian, though.
  • Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    Yeah, as a kid it was terrifying but looking back her willingness and ability to engage in debate was both admirable and remarkable. Only Blair has come close.
    Yes it was.
    But in the defence of PMs since, the tone of interviewing has changed. Look back at interviews of the 80s; the aim of the interviewer was to elicit information. Politicians were given time to speak and to explain themselves. Interviewers were certainly well briefed and well informed and would ask tricky questions, but the aim was to understand the issue. Modern interviewers seem primarily there to catch politicians out. We mock Peston for his lack of understanding of any given issue, but the fact that Peston can rise to the top shows that combativeness is prized over incisiveness. It's no wonder politicians of all stripes are not particularly enthused by talking to the media class except on their own terms.
    That's an accurate observation.

    The corollary is that politicians have become adept at not answering the question, so most interviews are now vacuous and pointless.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142

    eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    My favorite story about the naming of a country concerns Canada. Apparently when the local inhabitants were asked by some newly-arrived Europeans what the country was called, the reply was 'I don't understand you', or ca-na-da in the local lingo.

    No idea if it is true but has a nice ring to it.
    I think there is a similar story about the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico.

    Of course, both could be true! Obviously native Canadians will have a different way of saying 'I don't understand' to native Yucatanians (?)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    I hope that Truss’s first official prime ministerial interviews are with ITV and Sky News, leaving the self important, entitled BBC standing on the sidelines with a petted lip.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    My favorite story about the naming of a country concerns Canada. Apparently when the local inhabitants were asked by some newly-arrived Europeans what the country was called, the reply was 'I don't understand you', or ca-na-da in the local lingo.

    No idea if it is true but has a nice ring to it.
    Sounds similar to a story about the name Kangaroo. Supposedly Captain Cook asked an Aboriginal in what is now Sydney "What's that called?" pointing to a Kangaroo. The answer was "Kangaroo" which supposedly meant I dont Understand. As this story is now properly debunked and the Canada story is so similar, I'm quite sceptical that it is true.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    TOPPING said:

    Woman on R4 this morning saying how her leccie bill had gone from sub £20k to £130k.

    She should suck it up and run a more efficient business... apparently.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,866

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Aye, Thatch had a somewhat warped view of who were the enemy, but once she’d decided who they were she knew you didn’t charge in the opposite direction from them.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,190
    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    It's what I like about Borgen - the lovely now-fictitious idea that the PM will rock up to any news programme and happily answer questions free-form with about an hour's notice. Nice for the narrative but not particularly realistic, well certainly not here in the UK.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,020

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
    Trouble is that only works if everyone is getting the same sort of energy and living in the same circumstances. So someone who heats their house with oil will inevitably have lower gas/electricity bills than someone doing everything on the grid. And is it right that a family with a couple of kids gets a punitive tariff when someone living on their own does not.

    I am not opposed to the idea, I just see the implementation as being completely unworkable.
    It's a blunt tool certainly but it's better than just letting the free market work it out. You could adjust it for households with no gas meter. I think it is totally workable even if of course there will be edge cases that will make its application unfair in places.
  • eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    My favorite story about the naming of a country concerns Canada. Apparently when the local inhabitants were asked by some newly-arrived Europeans what the country was called, the reply was 'I don't understand you', or ca-na-da in the local lingo.

    No idea if it is true but has a nice ring to it.
    It comes from the Laurentian kanata which means village or settlement
    https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/kanata#Laurentian

    Laurentian was the language of the St Lawrence Iroquoians
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Lawrence_Iroquoians
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    Interestingly, the two countries names mean quite different things of a similar nature. 'Australia' means 'southern continent', while 'Austria' is an Anglicisation of 'Osterreich' (sp?), meaning 'Eastern Empire'.
    Both of which are interesting, because it is much more common for a given country to view itself as the middle of things (cf China) - though understandable why in each case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    edited August 2022
    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    Right now we are getting 47% of our energy from gas and 15% from wind. To free us of a situation where gas is the determinative cost we really need to reverse those figures. When Dogger Bank etc comes on stream we may be close to that on a good day.
    When is that likely to happen?
    There is also the Morocco project. My understanding - though it is vague - is that we could be getting around a quarter of UK electricity from this by the 2030s.
    The current planned total is somewhere around 10GW capacity, I think, which would be rather less than that.
    According to recent reports, ...Xinks is planning to hold international tenders for the project construction and expects to bring online the first 1.8 GW cable at the beginning of 2027 and a second cable two years later...

    Dogger Bank is expected to provide around 4.8GW capacity, I think - but is supposed to be built by the end of 2026.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
    Trouble is that only works if everyone is getting the same sort of energy and living in the same circumstances. So someone who heats their house with oil will inevitably have lower gas/electricity bills than someone doing everything on the grid. And is it right that a family with a couple of kids gets a punitive tariff when someone living on their own does not.

    I am not opposed to the idea, I just see the implementation as being completely unworkable.
    Perhaps AI could eventually make policies like this more realistic?
    Automate the means testing and establish a baseline position that way.
    However it would require mass data collection at quite an intrusive level, and public confidence in its effectiveness, which is doubtful.
    It won't happen in the UK first.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eristdoof said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    This site knows nothing of the sort. Sorry but I don't believe in Finland.
    Quite right, its clearly been invented by Michael Palin and has since gotten out of hand.
    Finland denial is for lightweights. Australia is fake. Obviously. A country with mammals that lay eggs?
    Even the name is not that imaginative. Someone just inserted two extra letters into the name of a European country and the name stuck.
    If Australia is fake then who are these blokes who keep turning up to beat England at cricket?
    Finland in disguise.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,448

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Sun's political role is to discourage its naturally Labour-inclined readers from taking an interest in politics. And so its "apolitical" stance is unsurprising. Its readers are the least likely to vote of any major newspaper.
    I have a friend who is a Sun reader (and almost certainly a Leaver) who fits this profile perfectly.
    Except for in 1992, when it woz the Sun wot wunnit!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    edited August 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
    Trouble is that only works if everyone is getting the same sort of energy and living in the same circumstances. So someone who heats their house with oil will inevitably have lower gas/electricity bills than someone doing everything on the grid. And is it right that a family with a couple of kids gets a punitive tariff when someone living on their own does not.

    I am not opposed to the idea, I just see the implementation as being completely unworkable.
    It's a blunt tool certainly but it's better than just letting the free market work it out. You could adjust it for households with no gas meter. I think it is totally workable even if of course there will be edge cases that will make its application unfair in places.
    Loads of suppliers went bust last year, also a lot of people switch every year. Not sure what happened with their data, presumably passed on to whoever took over the supply but not sure we could trust the suppliers to manage it accurately to work out a particular households 3 year average.

    Like the concept if it can be done properly.
  • I hope that Truss’s first official prime ministerial interviews are with ITV and Sky News, leaving the self important, entitled BBC standing on the sidelines with a petted lip.

    To make up for Liz Truss sabotaging the planned Sky debate, or had you forgotten about that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    Right now we are getting 47% of our energy from gas and 15% from wind. To free us of a situation where gas is the determinative cost we really need to reverse those figures. When Dogger Bank etc comes on stream we may be close to that on a good day.
    When is that likely to happen?
    There is also the Morocco project. My understanding - though it is vague - is that we could be getting around a quarter of UK electricity from this by the 2030s.
    I doubt very much we'll get a quarter of our energy from Morocco.

    There's this though - https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-backs-mega-solar-farm-in-morocco-to-power-7-million-heat-pumps-with-cheap-green-power/
    3.6 GW is about the same as Hinkley point C. So not a quarter, but it all helps.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?

    The average Tory voter is now a skilled working class Leave voter or a pensioner who voted Leave.

    The average PB poster however is a middle class graduate who voted Remain or at most voted Leave but only to go to EEA
    Makes sense, but it is quite dramatic. So it will all be down to how many of each group there are and where they live.

    Any reason for limiting it to 'skilled working class leave'. What about 'unskilled leavers'? Or do you think they will be mainly Labour or non voters anyway?
    Unskilled voters, certainly if they live in social housing will still be mainly Labour even if they voted Leave
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    It's what I like about Borgen - the lovely now-fictitious idea that the PM will rock up to any news programme and happily answer questions free-form with about an hour's notice. Nice for the narrative but not particularly realistic, well certainly not here in the UK.
    I loved the original Borgen - but was disappointed with the recent series. It seems a bit thin and odd to me.

    On the subject of TV - I'm mourning the loss of Better Call Saul.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    eristdoof said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    The people writing the newspapers don't actually believe in the politics of what they write, necessarily. The Sun in a classic example.

    Given the number of Daily Mail staff who are first generation immigrants, it seems quite likely to me that there a number of hard core John Redwood fans on the staff at the Guardian.
    I see that Leaver paranoia has reached the stage where the Sun is written by a pinko leftist Remainer cabal.
    If only they trusted experts a bit more they might have understood that Sunak was the leaver and Truss the remainer too.
    There was a rather good documentary on the Sun a while back. The staff there are professionals who sell a designed product. They don't actually believe in it.

    Bit like Jeremy Clarkson.

    I think that makes it worse, by the way.

    The number of non-gammons at the the Daily Mail is extremely funny some ways. But again, I think it makes it worse.

    I'm surprised that this is controversial or not more known.
    Not read the Sun for a few years (indeed apart from a free one at the tube, very rarely bother with any daily paper) but from memory, unlike the Mail or Express or even the Mirror, I never found it particularly political apart from during election campaigns. Has that changed?
    The Sun's political role is to discourage its naturally Labour-inclined readers from taking an interest in politics. And so its "apolitical" stance is unsurprising. Its readers are the least likely to vote of any major newspaper.
    I have a friend who is a Sun reader (and almost certainly a Leaver) who fits this profile perfectly.
    Except for in 1992, when it woz the Sun wot wunnit!
    I think the Sun's power in elections come from it being largely apolitical in between.

    If the Guardian editorial says lets vote Truss or the Express say lets vote for the LDs not sure it achieves much beyond the editors getting their p45. The Sun can plausibly direct readers to either Tories or Labour going into most election campaigns.
  • eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    Has the price of wind gone up then? Or sunshine? The price of electricity generated by free renewables has, and perhaps the government could look into that.
    The demand for energy from renewables has shot up, because the supply of energy from Russian gas has been choked. That is what happens when there is a free market in energy supply.
    Read it in context, which is why we can expect prices to drop in future.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,930

    I hope that Truss’s first official prime ministerial interviews are with ITV and Sky News, leaving the self important, entitled BBC standing on the sidelines with a petted lip.

    FFs, you sound childishly spiteful. Shouldn't you be getting your mum to buy your new school uniform and equipment today?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,510
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    Pricing is a rationing solution. It is not a method of avoiding rationing; it is a method of rationing.
    It rations by income/wealth.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741

    I hope that Truss’s first official prime ministerial interviews are with ITV and Sky News, leaving the self important, entitled BBC standing on the sidelines with a petted lip.

    I suspect it will be GB News….
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,522
    edited August 2022
    Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    Yeah, as a kid it was terrifying but looking back her willingness and ability to engage in debate was both admirable and remarkable. Only Blair has come close.
    Yes it was.
    But in the defence of PMs since, the tone of interviewing has changed. Look back at interviews of the 80s; the aim of the interviewer was to elicit information. Politicians were given time to speak and to explain themselves. Interviewers were certainly well briefed and well informed and would ask tricky questions, but the aim was to understand the issue. Modern interviewers seem primarily there to catch politicians out. We mock Peston for his lack of understanding of any given issue, but the fact that Peston can rise to the top shows that combativeness is prized over incisiveness. It's no wonder politicians of all stripes are not particularly enthused by talking to the media class except on their own terms.
    There's a lot in that although I'm not sure the politicians really mind the combativeness. Part of the devastatingness of the Katie Couric interview with Palin came from the fact that the tone was very soft.

    Likewise the most effective interviewer in Japan is Akira Ikegami, whose schtick is that he has a studio full of children and he comes over as a primary school teacher interviewing a guest on behalf of the kids. This is utterly devastating, firstly because despite the polite tone he can make the questions extremely blunt (it has to be simple for the kids to understand, right?) and at any point if the politician tries to deflect by attacking the interviewer they just come across as a horrible person going off on a friendly primary school teacher.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    Stocky said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Rob Ford brings facts to a prejudice party - fascinating trio of threads sparked by the “Never kissed a Tory” t- shirt:

    In the second volume of @sexliesballots I had a look at voters' attitudes to marriage across party lines. 2010 Labour voters were much more likely to be upset at the idea of a close relative marrying a Conservative than 2010 Tories were of a potential Labour in-law.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1564202925068623874

    Same phenomenon noted among Remain vs Leave voters.

    I would suggest that this is a result of the dominant media culrure being Labour/Remain.
    Remainers in deep Remainia might literally never knowingly encounter a Leaver or a Tory first hand. Potentially, their only exposure to them is via their chosen media, which will generally paint Leavers in a negative light.
    Whereas Leavers in deep Leavistan - even if they personally do not know any Remainers (or Labour voters) will, if they watch any telly at all, be exposed to Remainy/Labour/Centrist Dad views on Remain's own terms. They may not agree with them, but Remain/Labour types will not be the distant and scary stereotypes that Leave/Tory types will be for those in deep Remainia.
    Dominant media culture is Remain and Labour? You do know what the most popular newspapers in the UK are, right?
    She’s done a lot of newspaper work during the campaign.

    The criticism, from those who would criticise her no matter what she did, is the lack of TV interviews - where yes, the culture is very much Blairite and Remain.
    That's thecmost pathetic excuse I have ever heard. Thatcher thought the BBC was run by actual Marxists and it didn't stop her doing TV interviews.
    Right. If Truss does want to model herself as Thatcher, she's totally lacking in this aspect. Margaret Thatcher used to pop up quite often on normal news programs (Eg. Six O'Clock news) to answer questions from that day's news. I don't remember seeing any PM since doing that.
    It's what I like about Borgen - the lovely now-fictitious idea that the PM will rock up to any news programme and happily answer questions free-form with about an hour's notice. Nice for the narrative but not particularly realistic, well certainly not here in the UK.
    I loved the original Borgen - but was disappointed with the recent series. It seems a bit thin and odd to me.

    On the subject of TV - I'm mourning the loss of Better Call Saul.
    Better Caul Saul is brilliant but hovers on the cusp of being too slow (for me at least).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Scott_xP said:

    On the other hand, it will allow her to claim a massive swing towards her favour when she narrowly wins her first vote of no confidence. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1564173495726215168

    Indeed even fewer Tory MPs voted for Truss percentage wise in the first round than voted for IDS in the first round in 2001. In fact more Labour MPs nominated Corbyn percentage wise in the first round of the Labour leadership contest in 2015 than the percentage of Tory MPs who voted for Truss in the first round of this Tory leadership contest
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Tory support is in the 30+% range, however it has been wiped out on PB (although there is a large reservoir of potential support). @hyufd is right in that PB is no longer representative of Tory support.

    Why? What is different about PB? Age?, Political awareness? Intelligence? What?

    What is someone who still happily supports the Tories like?

    The average Tory voter is now a skilled working class Leave voter or a pensioner who voted Leave.

    The average PB poster however is a middle class graduate who voted Remain or at most voted Leave but only to go to EEA
    Makes sense, but it is quite dramatic. So it will all be down to how many of each group there are and where they live.

    Any reason for limiting it to 'skilled working class leave'. What about 'unskilled leavers'? Or do you think they will be mainly Labour or non voters anyway?
    Unskilled voters, certainly if they live in social housing will still be mainly Labour even if they voted Leave
    Perhaps true, but certainly not always. Gavin Williamson, Priti Patel and Grant Shapps all still vote Tory despite their lack of skills.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    I hope that Truss’s first official prime ministerial interviews are with ITV and Sky News, leaving the self important, entitled BBC standing on the sidelines with a petted lip.

    I suspect it will be GB News….
    I have to admit I’d laugh like a drain, if she were to do her first set-piece interview as PM with GB News! :D
This discussion has been closed.