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Truss has managed to avoid a set piece interview throughout whole campaign – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    Is that the summer intern analysts’ ‘think of a number’ exercise?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    ‘There’s enormous frustration’: Trump forces Republicans off-script… again
    Having once decried the search of Mar-a-Lago, defenders of the ex-president are now warning of civil unrest if the investigation leads to prosecution.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/trump-forces-republicans-off-script-again-00054121

    1) If being called 'semi-fascist' upsets you, don't threaten street violence.

    2) The law applies to everyone, otherwise you don't have a democracy.

    3) I'm laying Trump for the nomination.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    Is that the summer intern analysts’ ‘think of a number’ exercise?
    Note: number must be higher than Citi's, else it won't get widely reported.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    I wonder how long it will take a judge to throw it out, if it gets that far? Nine seconds, or a bit longer if they have to stop laughing first?

    Edit - presumably it will take about four years to come to court anyway by which time the matter will be moot.
    Surely they took legal advice and require representation by a barrister?

    I know that in the USA, a "barrister" (trial attorney) who presents a case is required to have satisfied themselves that an actual case exists and that it is not vexatious or a no-hoper, because if it is then the attorney in question gets censured.

    I presume that similar conditions prevail in the UK since their legal system grew out of the British one.

    So there must be the core of argument that stands a winnable chance?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Oh christ this is either Maugham or Cruddas - both absolubtely fucking mad.
    How many fools and their money are going to be parted with this one?

    We keep hearing there's not enough money in the justice system for things to go to trial, yet vexatious litigants seem to find a way to get their time in court often enough.
    There is no QC silly enough to take the case.

    {A lawyer entrers the chat, waving a baseball bat, wearing his wife's kimono}
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827

    Nigelb said:

    Tracking rare vertebrates by DNA sequencing fly poo.

    iDNA from roadside flies detects rare mammals, birds, and reptiles. New and simple protocol: dissolve fly poop in water, metabarcode with MinION or Illumina. >400 flies belonging to 25 species ==> 294 identifications ==> 20 vertebrate species.
    https://twitter.com/asrivath/status/1564278635456086016

    Illustrates how cheap and simple to use the technology has become.

    Yup.

    Can't be long before it is all handheld and sequencing can be done in the field.

    A student was sequencing Nightjar droppings in the Flatlands to work out which moths they were eating, but unfortunately the whole UK moth population isn't in the database yet so they had to add a few themselves.

    The project to sequence every UK species by 2030 will make a big difference.

    Have done some pond sampling for eDNA to see if there are newts. Much quicker and more accurate than setting out bottle traps.
    And less intrusive!

    I’m sure the newts are relieved.

    Indeed. Though the poor things have to be trapped out if they are found and the planners decide that development should go ahead anyway.

    Someone must make a killing on newt fencing.

    Seems a bit of a nonsense really. Either they are a protected species or they are not.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,592

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Cheap PR stunt? Former editor of the Times and Director of BBC News so unusual profile for such an act.
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1564594080591581185?s=21&t=DYTP9cGXsTVfMTcuRDOgaA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295

    F1: hmm. Doing something else so haven't bet yet but Ladbrokes have cut Perez's odds from 11 to 10 today already, for the win each way.

    Could be worth backing. While Verstappen got the attention, Perez was 9s clear of Sainz and in no risk of losing the place at a circuit which isn't his best.

    Not sure it's a track that Perez fancies much.
    But then again the RBs ought to outpace the Ferraris.

    What's the weather forecast ? If it's coolish, the Mercedes are dead
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Oh christ this is either Maugham or Cruddas - both absolubtely fucking mad.
    How many fools and their money are going to be parted with this one?

    We keep hearing there's not enough money in the justice system for things to go to trial, yet vexatious litigants seem to find a way to get their time in court often enough.
    There is no QC silly enough to take the case.

    {A lawyer entrers the chat, waving a baseball bat, wearing his wife's kimono}
    4. Tortoise is represented by counsel:

    Alan Payne QC and Aaron Moss

    5 Essex Court

    Temple

    EC4Y 9AH
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    edited August 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Tracking rare vertebrates by DNA sequencing fly poo.

    iDNA from roadside flies detects rare mammals, birds, and reptiles. New and simple protocol: dissolve fly poop in water, metabarcode with MinION or Illumina. >400 flies belonging to 25 species ==> 294 identifications ==> 20 vertebrate species.
    https://twitter.com/asrivath/status/1564278635456086016

    Illustrates how cheap and simple to use the technology has become.

    Yup.

    Can't be long before it is all handheld and sequencing can be done in the field.

    A student was sequencing Nightjar droppings in the Flatlands to work out which moths they were eating, but unfortunately the whole UK moth population isn't in the database yet so they had to add a few themselves.

    The project to sequence every UK species by 2030 will make a big difference.

    Have done some pond sampling for eDNA to see if there are newts. Much quicker and more accurate than setting out bottle traps.
    And less intrusive!

    I’m sure the newts are relieved.

    Indeed. Though the poor things have to be trapped out if they are found and the planners decide that development should go ahead anyway.

    Someone must make a killing on newt fencing.

    Seems a bit of a nonsense really. Either they are a protected species or they are not.
    It's a ****ing nightmare. A friend wants to put up a menage in a field next door to a pond where there are newts. The admin hoops they have to jump through are extraordinary, including having to have a daily consultant from some environmental company or other to check the progress of the project vs the newts' wellbeing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    Is that the summer intern analysts’ ‘think of a number’ exercise?
    If only it was.
  • DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    I am not loyal to the Tory party. However, I will claim to show more genuine patriotism than you've ever done - that patriotism being for Britain (UK) rather than from an unreciprocated hardon for the USA that you and so many in our political class suffer from.
    You have a Corbynite hatred of America and any genuine patriotism you've ever shown is to Moscow not Britain.

    I've unprompted frequently attacked America in the past for things America has done wrong, I've never seen you unprompted attack for Russia for anything whatsoever.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370

    ClippP said:

    Glad to see you about @NickPalmer . I answered a question you posed last week but suspect I was too late and you’d left the thread.

    You wondered why I was still considering voting Borgerlig when they are in the pockets of the Sweden Democrats. The answer is, not all of them are.

    There are 4 Borgerlig (“bourgeois”) parties:

    Moderates and Christian Democrats are in bed with the Sweden Democrats = no thanks!

    Liberals are equivocal = no thanks

    But the Centre Party are 100% anti Sweden Democrat!

    So, I’ll probably vote Centre (although have not yet totally ruled out the Greens or Social Democrats).

    Thanks, Stuart - interesting. One of the benefits of PR is that it allows this sort of nuance. In Denmark you can vote for centrist free-market pacifists, for instance - good luck with figuring out how to vote here if that's your position.
    Lib Dem, obviously!
    Lib Dems are pacifists?!

    They support Trident FFS.
    Not all do, Mr Dickson. So people with the profile Mr Palmer puts forward could still fit into the Lib Dems quite happily.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Cheap PR stunt? Former editor of the Times and Director of BBC News so unusual profile for such an act.
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1564594080591581185?s=21&t=DYTP9cGXsTVfMTcuRDOgaA
    They do have a point, though. It's OK for the Tories to elect a party leader. But not a Prime Minister. That's as much opening your presents before 0001 GMT on 25 December, as opening the election results is before next week is. It is also ultra vires.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,592
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    Is that the summer intern analysts’ ‘think of a number’ exercise?
    Coupled with an excercise in click generation and driving traffic to the site.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    Nigelb said:

    Tracking rare vertebrates by DNA sequencing fly poo.

    iDNA from roadside flies detects rare mammals, birds, and reptiles. New and simple protocol: dissolve fly poop in water, metabarcode with MinION or Illumina. >400 flies belonging to 25 species ==> 294 identifications ==> 20 vertebrate species.
    https://twitter.com/asrivath/status/1564278635456086016

    Illustrates how cheap and simple to use the technology has become.

    Yup.

    Can't be long before it is all handheld and sequencing can be done in the field.

    A student was sequencing Nightjar droppings in the Flatlands to work out which moths they were eating, but unfortunately the whole UK moth population isn't in the database yet so they had to add a few themselves.

    The project to sequence every UK species by 2030 will make a big difference.

    Have done some pond sampling for eDNA to see if there are newts. Much quicker and more accurate than setting out bottle traps.
    And less intrusive!

    I’m sure the newts are relieved.

    Indeed. Though the poor things have to be trapped out if they are found and the planners decide that development should go ahead anyway.

    Someone must make a killing on newt fencing.

    Seems a bit of a nonsense really. Either they are a protected species or they are not.
    Was visiting a Somerset friend and commented on the green plastic fencing mesh all over the hedges on the other side of the road. Turned out that the field was to be used to build houses, and they didn't want the nice birdies to nest in the hedge before they started work.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    I wonder how long it will take a judge to throw it out, if it gets that far? Nine seconds, or a bit longer if they have to stop laughing first?

    Edit - presumably it will take about four years to come to court anyway by which time the matter will be moot.
    Surely they took legal advice and require representation by a barrister?

    I know that in the USA, a "barrister" (trial attorney) who presents a case is required to have satisfied themselves that an actual case exists and that it is not vexatious or a no-hoper, because if it is then the attorney in question gets censured.

    I presume that similar conditions prevail in the UK since their legal system grew out of the British one.

    So there must be the core of argument that stands a winnable chance?

    The only requirement as far as I know is that you're willing to pay the court fee. Nothing to do with counsel or indeed getting advice. That's why most judicial reviews don't get anywhere.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Mr. B, I need to check the weather, and how it played out last year. From memory, it was a dull race...

    With new regulations generally working well for passing I think Verstappen and Perez should do well. I wonder if Ferrari will be closer... depends whether the Red Bull advantage last time was down mostly to the circuit or the changed regulations regarding the floor.

    Albon maybe worth a look too, for points. Impressive composure to lead a DRS train for most of the race in Spa.
  • dixiedean said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (-4)
    CON: 31% (+3)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)
    REF: 5% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Aug

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1564567871476453382

    8 point lead. Bang in line with Techne and 2 R+W polls, all taken more recently.
    The previous 15 point lead was something of an outlier I reckon.
    There was a time when all August polling was somewhat dismissed due to the holiday effect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
    With surplus wind energy? You'd need a steadier state I'd think to keep the cryolite cans bubbling away at the right temperature. Hydro was why it was being done in Invergordon, Kinlochleven and Fort William, but you'd want to use that now for load balancing. Mind, if you had lots and lots of energy might as well pig out as you say. Tidal too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    Nigelb said:

    ‘There’s enormous frustration’: Trump forces Republicans off-script… again
    Having once decried the search of Mar-a-Lago, defenders of the ex-president are now warning of civil unrest if the investigation leads to prosecution.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/trump-forces-republicans-off-script-again-00054121

    1) If being called 'semi-fascist' upsets you, don't threaten street violence.

    2) The law applies to everyone, otherwise you don't have a democracy.

    3) I'm laying Trump for the nomination.

    Why Trump’s Documents Case Is Really Just Like a Drug Prosecution
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/29/trumps-documents-case-like-drug-prosecution-00054046

    Former president Donald Trump has evaded criminal prosecution for years, in large part because white-collar crimes like fraud and obstruction of justice require prosecutors to prove that the defendant had a particular state of mind. But the Justice Department now has Trump in its crosshairs for straightforward crimes that are easier to prove, and it looks like the first federal criminal charges against a former president are at least plausible, if not probable.

    For years, I have explained why Trump’s outrageous actions did not fit neatly within existing criminal statutes or would be otherwise difficult to prosecute. But his determination to keep highly classified documents at his residence in South Florida even after the federal government told him they were classified and demanded their return is much more like the straightforward crimes I prosecuted as a junior federal prosecutor — bank robbery and narcotics trafficking — than the complex white-collar crimes I later spent years investigating and prosecuting.

    White-collar crimes like fraud or obstruction usually turn on the defendant’s intent.... In a narcotics case, if you possess heroin or cocaine, you’re guilty. You can argue that you didn’t really know it was narcotics — maybe you thought it was powdered sugar — but that is rarely a viable defense. If the government can prove you were the guy at the drug deal, it’s over.

    Most of the statutes at issue in the Mar-a-Lago documents case are more similar to a narcotics case than a complicated bank fraud or obstruction of justice case...
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827
    edited August 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tracking rare vertebrates by DNA sequencing fly poo.

    iDNA from roadside flies detects rare mammals, birds, and reptiles. New and simple protocol: dissolve fly poop in water, metabarcode with MinION or Illumina. >400 flies belonging to 25 species ==> 294 identifications ==> 20 vertebrate species.
    https://twitter.com/asrivath/status/1564278635456086016

    Illustrates how cheap and simple to use the technology has become.

    Yup.

    Can't be long before it is all handheld and sequencing can be done in the field.

    A student was sequencing Nightjar droppings in the Flatlands to work out which moths they were eating, but unfortunately the whole UK moth population isn't in the database yet so they had to add a few themselves.

    The project to sequence every UK species by 2030 will make a big difference.

    Have done some pond sampling for eDNA to see if there are newts. Much quicker and more accurate than setting out bottle traps.
    And less intrusive!

    I’m sure the newts are relieved.

    Indeed. Though the poor things have to be trapped out if they are found and the planners decide that development should go ahead anyway.

    Someone must make a killing on newt fencing.

    Seems a bit of a nonsense really. Either they are a protected species or they are not.
    It's a ****ing nightmare. A friend wants to put up a menage in a field next door to a pond where there are newts. The admin hoops they have to jump through are extraordinary, including having to have a daily consultant from some environmental company or other to check the progress of the project vs the newts' wellbeing.
    Yes, there's a specified distance from a known newt pond where the hoops start.

    Great Crested Newts aren't even that rare round here and it would all be best dealt with by looking at overall habitat loss than individual animals.

    I think it is a European hangover, as they are rare in a EU wide context. Similar applies to upland heather moorland, which is quite a poor habitat but is SSSI'd to death as there is almost none on the continent.

    The 'biodiversity net gain' thing being brought into the planning process is an attempt to go down the habitat route but as it involves DEFRA it is a total mess that nobody really understands (and can be gamed in several undesirable ways).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    Glad to see you about @NickPalmer . I answered a question you posed last week but suspect I was too late and you’d left the thread.

    You wondered why I was still considering voting Borgerlig when they are in the pockets of the Sweden Democrats. The answer is, not all of them are.

    There are 4 Borgerlig (“bourgeois”) parties:

    Moderates and Christian Democrats are in bed with the Sweden Democrats = no thanks!

    Liberals are equivocal = no thanks

    But the Centre Party are 100% anti Sweden Democrat!

    So, I’ll probably vote Centre (although have not yet totally ruled out the Greens or Social Democrats).

    Thanks, Stuart - interesting. One of the benefits of PR is that it allows this sort of nuance. In Denmark you can vote for centrist free-market pacifists, for instance - good luck with figuring out how to vote here if that's your position.
    Lib Dem, obviously!
    Lib Dems are pacifists?!

    They support Trident FFS.
    Not all do, Mr Dickson. So people with the profile Mr Palmer puts forward could still fit into the Lib Dems quite happily.
    Lib Dem Split KLAAAAAAXXOOON

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited August 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (-4)
    CON: 31% (+3)
    LDEM: 11% (-)
    GRN: 7% (-)
    REF: 5% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Aug

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1564567871476453382

    8 point lead. Bang in line with Techne and 2 R+W polls, all taken more recently.
    The previous 15 point lead was something of an outlier I reckon.
    Oh naughty YouGov and their wild swings 😌

    I posted this poll here Saturday night, why has it taken so long to gain traction
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    I wonder how long it will take a judge to throw it out, if it gets that far? Nine seconds, or a bit longer if they have to stop laughing first?

    Edit - presumably it will take about four years to come to court anyway by which time the matter will be moot.
    Surely they took legal advice and require representation by a barrister?

    I know that in the USA, a "barrister" (trial attorney) who presents a case is required to have satisfied themselves that an actual case exists and that it is not vexatious or a no-hoper, because if it is then the attorney in question gets censured.

    I presume that similar conditions prevail in the UK since their legal system grew out of the British one.

    So there must be the core of argument that stands a winnable chance?

    See above, the letter expressly identifies senior and junior counsel on the case

    Yes, there comes a stage at which a case is so non existent that the lawyers get into trouble which is why most vexatious litigants are litigants in person before they get banned, but the basic rule is people are allowed to present a case in court and to get representation to do so. The Vardy case shows how far this principle can be taken
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    edited August 2022
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    What on earth does a £7,700 energy cap push inflation up to ?

    Unless the Gov't removes it from the basket of goods :D - probably a thought in the Treasury right now..

    Containing inflation is a strong reason the Gov't needs to take the immediate hit (And then spread the pain gradually) of the monster energy bills imo.

    Medium - Long term the war in Ukraine will be settled and cheaper renewable energy and a greater supply of LNG will come on stream. So it's the bills in the next few years that need to be effectively nationalised I think.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Oh christ this is either Maugham or Cruddas - both absolubtely fucking mad.
    How many fools and their money are going to be parted with this one?

    We keep hearing there's not enough money in the justice system for things to go to trial, yet vexatious litigants seem to find a way to get their time in court often enough.
    There is no QC silly enough to take the case.

    {A lawyer entrers the chat, waving a baseball bat, wearing his wife's kimono}
    4. Tortoise is represented by counsel:

    Alan Payne QC and Aaron Moss

    5 Essex Court

    Temple

    EC4Y 9AH
    The thing about this is that it suggests that the process of replacing the prime minister is contrary to Article 10 of the ECHR. So presumably, followed through to its conclusion, it could end up at the ECHR. It's the perfect mix of activist journalists and lefty lawyers trying to use the 'political' ECHR to bring down the government; or at least that is how the tories would present it, with some justification.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited August 2022

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    Glad to see you about @NickPalmer . I answered a question you posed last week but suspect I was too late and you’d left the thread.

    You wondered why I was still considering voting Borgerlig when they are in the pockets of the Sweden Democrats. The answer is, not all of them are.

    There are 4 Borgerlig (“bourgeois”) parties:

    Moderates and Christian Democrats are in bed with the Sweden Democrats = no thanks!

    Liberals are equivocal = no thanks

    But the Centre Party are 100% anti Sweden Democrat!

    So, I’ll probably vote Centre (although have not yet totally ruled out the Greens or Social Democrats).

    Thanks, Stuart - interesting. One of the benefits of PR is that it allows this sort of nuance. In Denmark you can vote for centrist free-market pacifists, for instance - good luck with figuring out how to vote here if that's your position.
    Lib Dem, obviously!
    Lib Dems are pacifists?!

    They support Trident FFS.
    Not all do, Mr Dickson. So people with the profile Mr Palmer puts forward could still fit into the Lib Dems quite happily.
    Lib Dem Split KLAAAAAAXXOOON

    Could you sound some sort of warning before firing off your Klaxons? 🙉
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,415
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631
    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited August 2022

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This morning, we sent a letter to the Conservative Party to seek a Judicial Review of its conduct of the election of Party leader and the UK's next prime minister.

    This is because we believe it is undemocratic and unlawful.

    THREAD ⬇️🧵

    https://torto.se/3wFpM2K

    Oh christ this is either Maugham or Cruddas - both absolubtely fucking mad.
    How many fools and their money are going to be parted with this one?

    We keep hearing there's not enough money in the justice system for things to go to trial, yet vexatious litigants seem to find a way to get their time in court often enough.
    There is no QC silly enough to take the case.

    {A lawyer entrers the chat, waving a baseball bat, wearing his wife's kimono}
    Why do I get the feeling that ‘friends of Jolyon’ are behind this one, even if the man himself doesn’t want to be laughted out of court and formally labelled vexatious by a judge involved this time?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    Betting posts, Leon.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    Nigelb said:

    ‘There’s enormous frustration’: Trump forces Republicans off-script… again
    Having once decried the search of Mar-a-Lago, defenders of the ex-president are now warning of civil unrest if the investigation leads to prosecution.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/trump-forces-republicans-off-script-again-00054121

    1) If being called 'semi-fascist' upsets you, don't threaten street violence.

    2) The law applies to everyone, otherwise you don't have a democracy.

    3) I'm laying Trump for the nomination.

    Your strike rate is normally better than 2 out of 3!
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    There's a meme doing the rounds of German politicos smirking and shaking their heads in 2018 when Trump was warning them they were far, far too heavily reliant on Russian gas.

    Go cheer yourself up.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    But will you be able to afford to plug it in ?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344
    According to the BBC, "The Sami are the only indigenous people in the EU."

    https://twitter.com/bbcworldservice/status/1209155388144340993
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    £8k is its annual power consumption.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,891
    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    We have a general strike every year anyway from mid-December to mid-January. Doesn't seem to worry the fat cat bosses. What would a general strike achieve? Turning off each other's light and heating and leaving each other to starve? It would be a noble gesture.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343
    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 275
    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    I was thinking about this earlier. When the full price rise comes in, it will effectively eat up my entire monthly discretionary spending. So I won't be going out at all for meals, pub, entertainment etc.

    And I am in the top 10% of earners. The impact on "ordinary families" and the wider economy will be huge, unless the government effectively freezes prices roughly where they are now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
    With surplus wind energy? You'd need a steadier state I'd think to keep the cryolite cans bubbling away at the right temperature. Hydro was why it was being done in Invergordon, Kinlochleven and Fort William, but you'd want to use that now for load balancing. Mind, if you had lots and lots of energy might as well pig out as you say. Tidal too.
    Consider the thermal mass of say, 10,000 tons of molten cryolite. Interesting energy store, isn't it?

    I was running the numbers for molten tin the other day. Interesting there as well.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tracking rare vertebrates by DNA sequencing fly poo.

    iDNA from roadside flies detects rare mammals, birds, and reptiles. New and simple protocol: dissolve fly poop in water, metabarcode with MinION or Illumina. >400 flies belonging to 25 species ==> 294 identifications ==> 20 vertebrate species.
    https://twitter.com/asrivath/status/1564278635456086016

    Illustrates how cheap and simple to use the technology has become.

    Yup.

    Can't be long before it is all handheld and sequencing can be done in the field.

    A student was sequencing Nightjar droppings in the Flatlands to work out which moths they were eating, but unfortunately the whole UK moth population isn't in the database yet so they had to add a few themselves.

    The project to sequence every UK species by 2030 will make a big difference.

    Have done some pond sampling for eDNA to see if there are newts. Much quicker and more accurate than setting out bottle traps.
    And less intrusive!

    I’m sure the newts are relieved.

    Indeed. Though the poor things have to be trapped out if they are found and the planners decide that development should go ahead anyway.

    Someone must make a killing on newt fencing.

    Seems a bit of a nonsense really. Either they are a protected species or they are not.
    It's a ****ing nightmare. A friend wants to put up a menage in a field next door to a pond where there are newts. The admin hoops they have to jump through are extraordinary, including having to have a daily consultant from some environmental company or other to check the progress of the project vs the newts' wellbeing.
    Yes, there's a specified distance from a known newt pond where the hoops start.

    Great Crested Newts aren't even that rare round here and it would all be best dealt with by looking at overall habitat loss than individual animals.

    I think it is a European hangover, as they are rare in a EU wide context. Similar applies to upland heather moorland, which is quite a poor habitat but is SSSI'd to death as there is almost none on the continent.

    The 'biodiversity net gain' thing being brought into the planning process is an attempt to go down the habitat route but as it involves DEFRA it is a total mess that nobody really understands (and can be gamed in several undesirable ways).
    Newts is the transposition of habitats regs - but biodiversity net gain was made up by our current government, post Brexit.

    The tories believe they are this free market, deregulatory government. But in the end, politicians just can't help themselves. They always try and solve problems by regulation, and as life gets more complex, regulation also gets more and more complicated - with increasingly absurd and expensive outcomes. Biodiversity net gain, along with the building safety act, are particularly good examples of regulatory excess.

    When they started out in office the Conservatives set up ways of trying to prevent this, ie through creating things like the better regulation executive, the 'one in, two out' approach to new laws etc... but inevitably they find that these mechanisms are just an unreasonable barrier to 'getting things done', and once they are out the way, the amount of crazy new regulation goes in to overdrive.

    The only consolation is that it would probably be much worse if Labour were in power. But at then at least we would have some kind of functioning scrutiny of this phenomenon.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    DougSeal said:

    Looked at the LinkedIn profile of someone I'm working with and apparently they're passionate about "Gender Quality" which cheers me. We have too many substandard genders.

    I hope you told them it's 'gender, a quality' ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493
    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    Yeah! He should not be investigated for offences that see other people doing life in jail...

    FFS!!
  • PJH said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    I was thinking about this earlier. When the full price rise comes in, it will effectively eat up my entire monthly discretionary spending. So I won't be going out at all for meals, pub, entertainment etc.

    And I am in the top 10% of earners. The impact on "ordinary families" and the wider economy will be huge, unless the government effectively freezes prices roughly where they are now.
    There was an interesting point the other day on Radio 4 about the impact of people choosing not to pay their fuel bills. Big impact on credit scores and harder to get mortgages / lower rates on mortgages in future.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    No but he is definitely not a Remoaner. So Remoaners it is then for the next discussion.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    Looked at the LinkedIn profile of someone I'm working with and apparently they're passionate about "Gender Quality" which cheers me. We have too many substandard genders.

    I hope you told them it's 'gender, a quality' ?
    Some little time ago, my teenage daughter showed me a vid from a social influencer. Who was promoting "Metallic" T-shirts. They were, of course, using the Metallica band logo....

    I wonder how many million tons of lawyers Lars dropped on them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    No but he is definitely not a Remoaner. So Remoaners it is then for the next discussion.
    He certainly spends a lot of time moaning that he did not stay in office.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,050
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    PJH said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    I was thinking about this earlier. When the full price rise comes in, it will effectively eat up my entire monthly discretionary spending. So I won't be going out at all for meals, pub, entertainment etc.

    And I am in the top 10% of earners. The impact on "ordinary families" and the wider economy will be huge, unless the government effectively freezes prices roughly where they are now.
    There was an interesting point the other day on Radio 4 about the impact of people choosing not to pay their fuel bills. Big impact on credit scores and harder to get mortgages / lower rates on mortgages in future.
    Allegedly the workaround is you raise a case with the ombudsman and it doesn't affect credit rating. Wouldn wanna rely on it myself
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    No but he is definitely not a Remoaner. So Remoaners it is then for the next discussion.
    He certainly spends a lot of time moaning that he did not stay in office.
    Damn. Nothing then to discuss. I'm off to the garden then to chop some wood.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    Glad to see you about @NickPalmer . I answered a question you posed last week but suspect I was too late and you’d left the thread.

    You wondered why I was still considering voting Borgerlig when they are in the pockets of the Sweden Democrats. The answer is, not all of them are.

    There are 4 Borgerlig (“bourgeois”) parties:

    Moderates and Christian Democrats are in bed with the Sweden Democrats = no thanks!

    Liberals are equivocal = no thanks

    But the Centre Party are 100% anti Sweden Democrat!

    So, I’ll probably vote Centre (although have not yet totally ruled out the Greens or Social Democrats).

    Thanks, Stuart - interesting. One of the benefits of PR is that it allows this sort of nuance. In Denmark you can vote for centrist free-market pacifists, for instance - good luck with figuring out how to vote here if that's your position.
    Lib Dem, obviously!
    Lib Dems are pacifists?!

    They support Trident FFS.
    Not all do, Mr Dickson. So people with the profile Mr Palmer puts forward could still fit into the Lib Dems quite happily.
    Lib Dem Split KLAAAAAAXXOOON
    Not at all. There are still basic Liberal principles which unite us all.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    The Artemis thing is the epitome of Woke Gone Mad, spending 100bns to put a woman and a POC OTM.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    But will you be able to afford to plug it in ?

    Lots of people can. Lots of people arn’t remotely worried is my point.
    My Dad owns this Chelsea flat. My Dear GF has a good paying job now she can boss men about and make their lives hell 😄 because we have no mortgage or rent we feel we will have no problem with the sort of bills being banded about, even if we do have to pay them without getting hand outs (Starmer just freezes it for us) it’s just less going into saving accounts for a period of time.

    So the next part of the equation is Liz and Kwarzy (what a 💖 couple they make) with Apartheid Of The Pocket policy’s presenting opportunities for those of us with spending power. Slash those consumption taxes - I want to behave irresponsibly 😈

    What are we missing? Do tell.

    I hope Liz don’t change her mind again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    Rory Stewart yesterday: "I fear we’ll end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

    Boris Johnson today ...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-staging-comeback_uk_630e0dd1e4b088f742379ac1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    It strikes me the entire debate on Meghan Markle is essentially a woke test, not that such trivialities as the wife of the 3rd spare to the throne matter in the grand scheme of things.
    Annoyingly wind & solar power seems to have come under this test too which means large portions of the right seem to have ruled out any of it on almost religous grounds.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,415

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    Leon as Mr Morden? Wondering who Valen is in that case...
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,891
    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    The Artemis thing is the epitome of Woke Gone Mad, spending 100bns to put a woman and a POC OTM.
    Sheer lunacy.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:

    Rory Stewart yesterday: "I fear we’ll end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

    Boris Johnson today ...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-staging-comeback_uk_630e0dd1e4b088f742379ac1

    Boris's lap of honour will only remind the tories why they ditched him.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,719
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    Glad to see you about @NickPalmer . I answered a question you posed last week but suspect I was too late and you’d left the thread.

    You wondered why I was still considering voting Borgerlig when they are in the pockets of the Sweden Democrats. The answer is, not all of them are.

    There are 4 Borgerlig (“bourgeois”) parties:

    Moderates and Christian Democrats are in bed with the Sweden Democrats = no thanks!

    Liberals are equivocal = no thanks

    But the Centre Party are 100% anti Sweden Democrat!

    So, I’ll probably vote Centre (although have not yet totally ruled out the Greens or Social Democrats).

    Thanks, Stuart - interesting. One of the benefits of PR is that it allows this sort of nuance. In Denmark you can vote for centrist free-market pacifists, for instance - good luck with figuring out how to vote here if that's your position.
    Lib Dem, obviously!
    Lib Dems are pacifists?!

    They support Trident FFS.
    Not all do, Mr Dickson. So people with the profile Mr Palmer puts forward could still fit into the Lib Dems quite happily.
    Lib Dem Split KLAAAAAAXXOOON
    Not at all. There are still basic Liberal principles which unite us all.

    Finally, an admission that one side's gone soft on democracy.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,493

    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
    With surplus wind energy? You'd need a steadier state I'd think to keep the cryolite cans bubbling away at the right temperature. Hydro was why it was being done in Invergordon, Kinlochleven and Fort William, but you'd want to use that now for load balancing. Mind, if you had lots and lots of energy might as well pig out as you say. Tidal too.
    Consider the thermal mass of say, 10,000 tons of molten cryolite. Interesting energy store, isn't it?

    I was running the numbers for molten tin the other day. Interesting there as well.
    Molten tin is no use. We need molten lead in case Leon manages to use AI to recreate the Alien and then we can get Sigourney Weaver to trap it and use the lead to finish it off.

    (Pedant note: Neither Ripley nor the Alien would have sank into the lead. It is far, far denser than they are. They would have burned merrily floating on top of it)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rory Stewart yesterday: "I fear we’ll end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

    Boris Johnson today ...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-staging-comeback_uk_630e0dd1e4b088f742379ac1

    Boris's lap of honour will only remind the tories why they ditched him.
    And the Scots. He's apparently planning to come up here (tbc though).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,306

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    Essentially, it's the Hitchens view. "A small faraway country of which we know little or nothing."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    A reminder that there will be a shortage over the winter, of 15-20% of gas requirements, whether that be for for direct gas supply or electricity generation.

    No matter what the price, the demand needs to drop by that much otherwise there will be rationing.

    Calls for government to reduce price, in order that customers don’t need to reduce demand, *will* result in fuel rationing this winter.

    Most of the solutions are on the demand side - kicking off football matches at 1pm rather than 3pm, is a good example of this.

    What's so BAD about fuel rationing ? It's better for most people than 8 grand energy bills.
    The questions are, who gets rationed, and who makes the decision about who gets rationed?
    All households should get a below market price for consumption up to the median minus 15% and face a punitive tariff above that. For firms set the threshold at their average for the last 3 years minus 15% with the same dual tarrif structure. Subsidise the cheaper tariff using revenue from the punitive tariff plus a windfall tax on energy firms plus temporary income tax surcharge plus borrowing.
    Trouble is that only works if everyone is getting the same sort of energy and living in the same circumstances. So someone who heats their house with oil will inevitably have lower gas/electricity bills than someone doing everything on the grid. And is it right that a family with a couple of kids gets a punitive tariff when someone living on their own does not.

    I am not opposed to the idea, I just see the implementation as being completely unworkable.
    It's a blunt tool certainly but it's better than just letting the free market work it out. You could adjust it for households with no gas meter. I think it is totally workable even if of course there will be edge cases that will make its application unfair in places.
    Loads of suppliers went bust last year, also a lot of people switch every year. Not sure what happened with their data, presumably passed on to whoever took over the supply but not sure we could trust the suppliers to manage it accurately to work out a particular households 3 year average.

    Like the concept if it can be done properly.
    I would only use the 3 year averages for business users. For domestic users I would apply median household usage minus 15%. The principle behind the household plan is that everyone should be able to achieve minimum standards of heating, have showers etc. People in bigger houses shouldn't get more help. For firms the idea is simply to prevent otherwise viable businesses from going bust and laying people off, so it makes sense for larger or more energy intensive businesses to get more help, and you need to benchmark against their normal usage, but also with a 15% reduction.
    These minumum standards should be "rationed" per person. Which means you need each household would need to inform their energy suppliers of how many people there are in that flat/house. I can see there being a lot of opposition to that.
    That would be too intrusive and expensive. The measure needs to be simple and inexpensive to implement. People like us - 6 ppl living at our address, big draughty house, would do badly out of it, but that's life.
    Good morning

    Interesting that our water meter was read this week and Welsh Water sent me the six month account on line

    I logged in and they asked for confirmation of the number of people living at our home which I confirmed as 2

    We moved to a water meter years ago and it halved our bill
    I get the occasional email from my water company regarding going on a water meter. I still haven't done it - not sure why really - I guess I'm suspicious there may be a catch. Why would the water company want me to pay less than now? They say I can try a meter and revert back within two years if I want but should I trust this pledge?
    Because it's irreversible other than that, so it's a rare example of long term planning by them.

    I'm very glad our water bill is unmetered. Running the kids baths alone would consume a lot of water that would take us past the bill we pay.

    An elderly couple who take showers will consume a lot less water than a family will with young kids etc. If grandparents switch to get a better deal on a meter then the water company gets its reward from that if the next occupiers of the home are a family paying considerably more extra than what the grandparents had saved.
    Have you actually done the numbers Bart? I hear what you are saying, but in our previous house we would have been in the same situation as you (2 youngsters from babies) and it was still cheaper to be metered. It does seem to be biased to get you on the meter.
    No to be fair I've never done the numbers.

    Though we do have a 1600L blow up swimming pool that we inflate and fill every summer, so I'd assume that would cost a bit if on a metre, but I've never done the numbers.
    It'd cost £4.37 on my meter.
    Is that it?

    Thought it'd be more to be honest.
    It's a bit more for you, £4.95 as you're in United Utilities area.

    Breakeven points for UU in tons of water per year are

    76 tons flat or terrace
    108 tons semi
    122 tons detached.

    https://www.unitedutilities.com/globalassets/documents/pdf/8814a-household-charges-at-a-glance-2021-2022-v6-web-acc.pdf
    I'm not used to thinking in tons of water, that's approximately 1000 litres of water isn't it?

    So about 300 litres of water per day to break even for a semi, or about 200 for a flat or terrace? Seems like a lot of water.
    A (metric) tonne is exactly 1,000 litres of water!
    An old Imperial “Long Ton” is 2,240lb, 20cwt, or 1,016kg.
    A US ton (very much still in use today) is 2,000lb or 907kg.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    Leon as Mr Morden? Wondering who Valen is in that case...
    Ah, Mr Morden. Never was tea drunk so malevolently and with such evil.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 220

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    I always thought that it was the other way around, Vorlons being the rulegivers (certainly implied as inspiring Abrahamic religion) and the Shadows being the rulebreakers. In D&D terms, extreme Lawful Neutral and extreme Chaotic Neutral.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    Essentially, it's the Hitchens view. "A small faraway country of which we know little or nothing."
    I'm not understanding this pls elaborate.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited August 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    The Artemis thing is the epitome of Woke Gone Mad, spending 100bns to put a woman and a POC OTM.
    Sheer lunacy.
    A six week health and safety exercise has to precede the actual mission itself!

    Sort of the opposite of the movie Apollo 13, where the director gives the engineers a whole load of junk and says 'we have to make a carbon dioxide filter out of this stuff' in a few hours.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Another thread stuffed with Trump hatred. It gets quite monotonous. Leave the old guy alone FFS

    What would you prefer: Aliens, Weird pseudo AI creations, Covid from the lab, or Remoaners?
    Hang on, are you seriously suggesting Trump is not a pseudo AI creation produced in an alien lab?
    HOLD THE PHONE

    The Aliens thing explained. At last

    - One group of Aliens is Woke (Vorlons)
    - The other group is anti-Woke (Shadows)

    They have agreed to use Earth as a Battle Royale to settle the matter. Without actually appearing to us.

    This explains the ludicrous nature of their technology, why the whole thing is being hidden...

    And Leon's investment in the thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295

    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    But will you be able to afford to plug it in ?

    Lots of people can. Lots of people arn’t remotely worried is my point.
    My Dad owns this Chelsea flat. My Dear GF has a good paying job now she can boss men about and make their lives hell 😄 because we have no mortgage or rent we feel we will have no problem with the sort of bills being banded about, even if we do have to pay them without getting hand outs (Starmer just freezes it for us) it’s just less going into saving accounts for a period of time.

    So the next part of the equation is Liz and Kwarzy (what a 💖 couple they make) with Apartheid Of The Pocket policy’s presenting opportunities for those of us with spending power. Slash those consumption taxes - I want to behave irresponsibly 😈

    What are we missing? Do tell....
    You're the people that can afford to pay for the nosebleed taxes to pay for all this ?
    :smile:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631
    I’m still having enormous fun with Stable Diffusion. It gets better the more you play with it. You learn how to manipulate and provoke it. Indeed this now has a name. “Promptcraft” and “promptsmithing”

    These terms will be big over the next few years

    Just one well chosen word can send it into a dreamy haunted state

    I’ll spare you the creepy images. For now
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    x2 pls elaborate.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    Essentially, it's the Hitchens view. "A small faraway country of which we know little or nothing."
    I'm not understanding this pls elaborate.
    It is the official Conservative position when Hitler was threatening Czecoslovakia. And then , a year later....
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rory Stewart yesterday: "I fear we’ll end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

    Boris Johnson today ...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-staging-comeback_uk_630e0dd1e4b088f742379ac1

    Boris's lap of honour will only remind the tories why they ditched him.
    And the Scots. He's apparently planning to come up here (tbc though).
    I think it is more likely Johnson plays Heath to Truss's Thatcher for the next two years. A toxic mixture of bitterness and envy sniping from the backbenches, always ready with a renta-quote for the media.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
    With surplus wind energy? You'd need a steadier state I'd think to keep the cryolite cans bubbling away at the right temperature. Hydro was why it was being done in Invergordon, Kinlochleven and Fort William, but you'd want to use that now for load balancing. Mind, if you had lots and lots of energy might as well pig out as you say. Tidal too.
    Consider the thermal mass of say, 10,000 tons of molten cryolite. Interesting energy store, isn't it?

    I was running the numbers for molten tin the other day. Interesting there as well.
    Molten tin is no use. We need molten lead in case Leon manages to use AI to recreate the Alien and then we can get Sigourney Weaver to trap it and use the lead to finish it off.

    (Pedant note: Neither Ripley nor the Alien would have sank into the lead. It is far, far denser than they are. They would have burned merrily floating on top of it)
    On a metapedantic note: it's molten aluminium-[cryolite _+ alumina mutual solution] mixture (like Honeycomb Mould of old), isn't it? But sgs still to ohigh, for aluminium anway, to change your conclusion - no idea about the salt component.
  • OT, kind of.

    I am just looking at buying a diesel generator and was interested in finding out how much I would need in terms of KW to keep the essentials going. I came across this site which might be very useful for people looking at trying to reduce power consumption through the winter.

    https://www.daftlogic.com/information-appliance-power-consumption.htm

    Some surprising things in there. Basically anything that does any heating (Kettles, toasters, ovens) is a monster. Other stuff not so much. Although of course it all adds up which is the whole point
  • Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    But will you be able to afford to plug it in ?

    Lots of people can. Lots of people arn’t remotely worried is my point.
    My Dad owns this Chelsea flat. My Dear GF has a good paying job now she can boss men about and make their lives hell 😄 because we have no mortgage or rent we feel we will have no problem with the sort of bills being banded about, even if we do have to pay them without getting hand outs (Starmer just freezes it for us) it’s just less going into saving accounts for a period of time.

    So the next part of the equation is Liz and Kwarzy (what a 💖 couple they make) with Apartheid Of The Pocket policy’s presenting opportunities for those of us with spending power. Slash those consumption taxes - I want to behave irresponsibly 😈

    What are we missing? Do tell.

    I hope Liz don’t change her mind again.
    And that's why this problem is going to be such a bugger to fix by targetted help.

    The difference between the mortgages and the rents some people are paying for basically identical houses in my neck of the woods is over a thousand pounds a month. That's twelve thousand pounds a year. Make the comparison with those who are fully paid off and it becomes even more absurd.

    What should probably happen is some sort of taxing of windfall gains on house prices over the last couple of decades. Partly because that is the only place where there is spare money and partly because... it shouldn't really have happened, should it? But the chances of any Conservative government doing that are next to zero.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    ClippP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    Essentially, it's the Hitchens view. "A small faraway country of which we know little or nothing."
    I'm not understanding this pls elaborate.
    It is the official Conservative position when Hitler was threatening Czecoslovakia. And then , a year later....
    Ah I see so we must suspend discussion on this matter because it gives succour to Putin.

    How absurd.

    Go and have a word with yourselves.
  • So the LibDems are
    (a) choosing a "by-election candidate" for Surrey Heath on the understanding that
    (b) Ravey Mikey Govey is about to be appointed editor of The Times...
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited August 2022
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Rory Stewart yesterday: "I fear we’ll end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

    Boris Johnson today ...

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-staging-comeback_uk_630e0dd1e4b088f742379ac1

    Boris's lap of honour will only remind the tories why they ditched him.
    I think he’ll remain popular with the members, but tory MPs will do the necessary to keep Truss from being challenged, pre-election. The More Boris openly challenges, the more tory MP’s will rally around Truss, no matter how unpopular. If she loses, Boris stands a decent chance of reclaiming the crown if he’s still an MP and still wants it. The prospect of 5 years of opposition may not appeal to him, though.

    Anyway, I anticipated this speculation and took advantage of @shadsy ‘s offer of 16/1 on Boris as next con leader after Sunak/Truss. He allowed me £45.
    Now down to 11/1. Opened at 33/1, which someone sharp hoovered up before I got a chance. A rare error from Shadsy, I recon.

    When the bookies/betfair markets open, I expect Boris to initially trade around ~4/1, unless he steps down as MP, obviously. I generally dislike these kind of bets which rely on second-guessing politicians motives. Still, 16/1 odds were too good to miss, imo.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    edited August 2022

    Carnyx said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    That poll suggests that giving people their own money back to cope with the crisis as they see fit is maybe not such a bad idea after all.
    It isn't a terrible one - at least it doesn't drive up the price of energy directly.
    Something that needs to be considered in the future.

    Energy usage reduction is an important part of net zero.

    However, a number of green energy sources are rapidly decreasing in price over the medium term (technological improvements). In the long run we may well have cheaper leecy than those on the fossil fuel path. And no reason not to pig out on it.....

    Anyone ready for the return of aluminium smelting to the UK?
    With surplus wind energy? You'd need a steadier state I'd think to keep the cryolite cans bubbling away at the right temperature. Hydro was why it was being done in Invergordon, Kinlochleven and Fort William, but you'd want to use that now for load balancing. Mind, if you had lots and lots of energy might as well pig out as you say. Tidal too.
    Consider the thermal mass of say, 10,000 tons of molten cryolite. Interesting energy store, isn't it?

    I was running the numbers for molten tin the other day. Interesting there as well.
    Molten tin is no use. We need molten lead in case Leon manages to use AI to recreate the Alien and then we can get Sigourney Weaver to trap it and use the lead to finish it off.

    (Pedant note: Neither Ripley nor the Alien would have sank into the lead. It is far, far denser than they are. They would have burned merrily floating on top of it)
    A wizard did it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,295
    Another alien invasion - the noble false widow spider:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62721881
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    Nigelb said:

    kyf_100 said:

    ping said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    Goldman Sachs has suggested that UK inflation could reach 22% https://www.ft.com/content/b69a30c0-d72d-4a19-95cd-acc7a18da1bd

    This isn’t funny any more.
    Unless the pay figure the militant rail union leaders accept is soon selling their membership up the swanee

    “7% Mick? Is that all? We’ll round it up to 10% to show what a caring employer we are.” 😈
    I don’t understand why the unions aren’t going all out for “no real-terms pay cut, nothing more, nothing less” right across the board.

    The govt are basically using inflation to impose real terms pay cuts. That simply shouldn’t be acceptable - and the unions, from what I can see - are letting them get away with it.

    I think both the government and the unions have misjudged the general public’s sense of what is fair and what isn’t.

    I don’t have a dog in the fight, personally. Never been a member of any union.
    That will probably be the position come winter, when the bills start to hit home. I expect a general strike isn't out of the question.

    The Don't Pay UK and the Enough is Enough campaigns seem to be getting a lot of traction among my friends.

    I think the government have badly misjudged the sense of anger building and if we get out of this winter with just a general strike / three day week etc and not actual riots on the streets, we'll have gotten off lightly.

    People are angry and looking for someone to blame, whether that's the government, the utilities companies, the "fat cat bosses" etc - anyone perceived to be profiting out of the current misery needs to expect pitchforks.
    from your surreal fantasy depiction of the coming months, back to reality, and I can’t wait for Truss to slash VAT so I can go down the high street merching on lower prices for luxury goods.

    There’s no point telling me 8K tv is not a priority right now, strongly desiring it has already begun 😇
    But will you be able to afford to plug it in ?

    Lots of people can. Lots of people arn’t remotely worried is my point.
    My Dad owns this Chelsea flat. My Dear GF has a good paying job now she can boss men about and make their lives hell 😄 because we have no mortgage or rent we feel we will have no problem with the sort of bills being banded about, even if we do have to pay them without getting hand outs (Starmer just freezes it for us) it’s just less going into saving accounts for a period of time.

    So the next part of the equation is Liz and Kwarzy (what a 💖 couple they make) with Apartheid Of The Pocket policy’s presenting opportunities for those of us with spending power. Slash those consumption taxes - I want to behave irresponsibly 😈

    What are we missing? Do tell.

    I hope Liz don’t change her mind again.
    And that's why this problem is going to be such a bugger to fix by targetted help.

    The difference between the mortgages and the rents some people are paying for basically identical houses in my neck of the woods is over a thousand pounds a month. That's twelve thousand pounds a year. Make the comparison with those who are fully paid off and it becomes even more absurd.

    What should probably happen is some sort of taxing of windfall gains on house prices over the last couple of decades. Partly because that is the only place where there is spare money and partly because... it shouldn't really have happened, should it? But the chances of any Conservative government doing that are next to zero.
    The problem with taxing windfall gains, is the same problem with stamp duty - that it gives the government a large incentive to keep property prices high, and do nothing about the shortage of supply.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,338
    TOPPING said:

    ClippP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    The massacre of small business is one thing that is coming across very clearly, and will be a significant part of the economic rout that the UK is going to be facing over the course of the next few quarters. Truss has maybe only weeks to establish a clear and stable policy direction (spoiler alert: none of her currently declared economic policies will work). The choices she makes next week for her cabinet will determine the tone, direction and success of her administration. If Redwood and Duncan Smith (and Rees Mogg) really have been raised from the crypt in order to play major roles, then by Halloween the Truss government will already be in a death spiral.

    There is also the question of "events", and as this site knows, there is a major scandal already out there. So, I guess I need to order more popcorn (Microwave, obviously, the energy costs of using the stove versus the microwave are too large),

    Truss needs to face up to reality, and hiding from the media will just infuriate them.

    I do not see this massacre of small businesses at all. Yes, their costs are going to rise significantly so their prices will do likewise. That will effect businesses differentially depending on how important energy is for their business, as a generality manufacturing will be hit worse than services.

    But we have more more than 10% inflation already. No one is going to be shocked by rising prices. Given wages are not rising as fast there may be some reduction in demand but so far that has not manifested itself.

    We need to adjust to this exogenous price shock. Cheap gas and relatively cheap fuel are not coming back anytime soon, if ever. We need to accept as a nation that more of our money will be spent that way and less on other things. We did this with the oil shock in the 1970s. It was deeply unpleasant but we survived. Expecting governments to somehow magic this change away is every bit as fairy tale as the idea that the producers, who are in general well beyond the reach of the Treasury, will somehow be paying a windfall tax to pay for it all.
    I find this a jaw-droppingly stupid pronouncement from such a sensible poster.

    We already face massive economical disadvantages compared to other parts of the world in terms of labour market inflexibility, an aging population, a generous system of benefits and entitlements, and now you think that we must accept long term that we're also screwed on energy costs (whilst our competitors in India and China guzzle cut-price Russian gas) - this is throwing in the towel of the whole future of our economy.

    When Ukraine was kicking off, I was assured that Ukraine would be 'buying' weapons from us; if we donated anything, the costs would be sunk anyway. Several billion pounds, vast amounts of military ordnance, a severely faltering economy, and Grannies threatening with frostbite in, we must now apparently accept permanent impoverishment as a cost of 'winning' this utterly absurd foreign war.

    That said, the political realities being as they are currently, we must get what positives we can from this, and the positive is that finally, Government will be forced to confront our appalling lack of a coherent energy strategy beyond pathetic virtue signalling, and find sources of inexpensive and reliable energy to power our economic growth. It is vitally important that we all encourage this process, and hold their feet to the fire, not droopingly accept our fate in the way that you have done.
    Blue on blue action.

    I’m getting excited. Am I kinky?

    (That was your cue Sean.)
    You think Putinguy is blue?

    Strikes me as far more red under the bed.
    How about the points he makes.

    We are being told (including today by ex-Exeter Uni student Sir Alex Younger) that we must suck it up because of Ukraine.

    Now that is a perfectly reasonable attitude to take over a foreign war and we had no choice in 1973 when there was a foreign war then. Not everyone will agree but that's democracy for you. Perhaps some, more pertinently, can't afford to agree.

    But why do you take against the suggestion that the government should have a coherent energy policy?
    Bart's perfectly entitled to argue for any old energy policy, and indeed any policy on any war. But his relentless attempt to label other posters as whatever-under-the-bed and make up names for them is just tiresome, and distracts from whatever points he makes.
    It is a bizarre PB phenomenon and not confined to @BartholomewRoberts.
    Comments like that will be seen as a big win for Putin back home in Moscow. You should think hard about that.
    Essentially, it's the Hitchens view. "A small faraway country of which we know little or nothing."
    I'm not understanding this pls elaborate.
    It is the official Conservative position when Hitler was threatening Czecoslovakia. And then , a year later....
    Ah I see so we must suspend discussion on this matter because it gives succour to Putin.

    How absurd.

    Go and have a word with yourselves.
    I think it is best to be careful about how to discuss the war in Ukraine in public. I had a discussion with my neighbour and was accused of being a Putin stooge because I was mentioning causes of the war (ie NATO expansion, Russians in Eastern Europe after the fall of the soviet union). The only narrative that seems to be acceptable is that 'Putin is a psycho and needs to be taken out'.

    In the end, I would rather go with that than the alternative of having 'free debate' which is easily infiltrated by Russia, but it is quite amazing how we have got to this level of public compliance, when compared with past conflicts. The propoganda is very good, unusually so; almost too good.

    You do wonder, however, what happens next if we don't "take Putin out".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Leon said:

    I’m still having enormous fun with Stable Diffusion. It gets better the more you play with it. You learn how to manipulate and provoke it. Indeed this now has a name. “Promptcraft” and “promptsmithing”

    These terms will be big over the next few years

    Just one well chosen word can send it into a dreamy haunted state

    I’ll spare you the creepy images. For now

    You should get yourself down to the railings on the Bayswater Road - there is some extraordinary groundbreaking avant garde art there. It will change your life forever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423

    OT, kind of.

    I am just looking at buying a diesel generator and was interested in finding out how much I would need in terms of KW to keep the essentials going. I came across this site which might be very useful for people looking at trying to reduce power consumption through the winter.

    https://www.daftlogic.com/information-appliance-power-consumption.htm

    Some surprising things in there. Basically anything that does any heating (Kettles, toasters, ovens) is a monster. Other stuff not so much. Although of course it all adds up which is the whole point

    Reminds me of Gordon Brown's plan to get everyone using diesel vehicles.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    Just found out our business gas and leccy are fixed till December 2023. Happy days (For now !)..
  • Andy_JS said:

    OT, kind of.

    I am just looking at buying a diesel generator and was interested in finding out how much I would need in terms of KW to keep the essentials going. I came across this site which might be very useful for people looking at trying to reduce power consumption through the winter.

    https://www.daftlogic.com/information-appliance-power-consumption.htm

    Some surprising things in there. Basically anything that does any heating (Kettles, toasters, ovens) is a monster. Other stuff not so much. Although of course it all adds up which is the whole point

    Reminds me of Gordon Brown's plan to get everyone using diesel vehicles.
    I am still wavering between petrol and diesel. The point being that even without upcoming energy issues we regularly have blackouts and brownouts in rural areas and I would rather not see my freezer full of food go to waste.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited August 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Just found out our business gas and leccy are fixed till December 2023. Happy days (For now !)..

    Might be worth asking the supplier for a termination quote. Could be more profitable selling the contract back to them at current rates, without the faff of running the actual business. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859

    OT, kind of.

    I am just looking at buying a diesel generator and was interested in finding out how much I would need in terms of KW to keep the essentials going. I came across this site which might be very useful for people looking at trying to reduce power consumption through the winter.

    https://www.daftlogic.com/information-appliance-power-consumption.htm

    Some surprising things in there. Basically anything that does any heating (Kettles, toasters, ovens) is a monster. Other stuff not so much. Although of course it all adds up which is the whole point

    Electric heating right now is the amusing one, seeing as it's basically gas heating in disguise right now (With added inefficiency)
This discussion has been closed.