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The ambulance service is becoming a huge problem for Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    But the point is there is a war and covid cost hundreds of billions
    No the point here is what Has either covid or the war got to do with six Tory manifestos promising to deliver on immigration numbers, and 12 years in of continuous rule it’s proved a failure to deliver. The conclusion is that bit of manifestos written with fingers crossed behind the back, because cutting immigration equals xx% off of GDP, and these Conservative governments havn’t been prepared to cut that off GDP despite talking up their promise to do so. A failure to deliver on promised policy by bossed with short term impacts on themselves, not the long term.

    Instead they replaced the EU free movement with non EU free movement built into Liz Truss trade deals, she is always boasting she delivered.

    That’s the point. Though I’m happy to be corrected where wrong.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited August 2022

    It is a lot higher in other European countries and especially in the Baltic states
    So you think Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are appropriate comparitors rather than France?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    It is a lot higher in other European countries and especially in the Baltic states
    Don’t we have the worst in the G7?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    PM Trussticles is going to be fun

    Truss is a weirdo, an oddball and seems a bit loopy. Boris was arguably better than her. It’s not clear why the Tory members are so keen on her.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    edited August 2022

    The Baltic states collectively are less than 1.4% of the EU population. Whatever effect they are having, it is not "heavily slanting" the EU figures.
    How are Eurozone inflation numbers calculated?

    Because the three largest EU/Eurozone states are Germany (7.5% inflation), France (6.1%) and Italy (7.9%). They are all well below the EU/Eurozone average, which is strange because they account for 210m of the 440m EZ population.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712

    So you think Latvias, Lithuania and Estonia are appropriate comparitors rather than France?
    They are not. But France is a poor compar-tor because of Nuclear energy, when so much of our inflation is due to energy costs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited August 2022
    kjh said:

    So far one iPhone, umpteen pairs of glasses, my wallet and a pair of binoculars.
    You should have got an English Pointer, just saying.

    So far (9 years) six squirrels, three pheasants, a couple of moles, and numerous rats.

    No furniture, glasses, phones, clothes, shoes, or any other objects that don't resemble live game.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Truss is a weirdo, an oddball and seems a bit loopy. Boris was arguably better than her. It’s not clear why the Tory members are so keen on her.
    She strokes their prejudices and they love her for it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    rcs1000 said:

    How are Eurozone inflation numbers calculated?

    Because the three largest EU/Eurozone states are Germany (7.5% inflation), France (6.1%) and Italy (7.9%). They are all well below the EU/Eurozone average, which is strange because they account for 210m of the 440m EZ population.
    Inflation is over 10% in Spain and the Netherlands
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    rcs1000 said:

    How are Eurozone inflation numbers calculated?

    Because the three largest EU/Eurozone states are Germany (7.5% inflation), France (6.1%) and Italy (7.9%). They are all well below the EU/Eurozone average, which is strange because they account for 210m of the 440m EZ population.
    Is is really possible they are just adding them up and dividing by 27?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Truss is a weirdo, an oddball and seems a bit loopy. Boris was arguably better than her. It’s not clear why the Tory members are so keen on her.
    Because they can't have Boris?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    rcs1000 said:

    How are Eurozone inflation numbers calculated?

    Because the three largest EU/Eurozone states are Germany (7.5% inflation), France (6.1%) and Italy (7.9%). They are all well below the EU/Eurozone average, which is strange because they account for 210m of the 440m EZ population.
    Germany is 8.5% and Italy is 8.9%

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644650/2-29072022-AP-EN.pdf/8b14d87f-df6c-aeb5-7dc9-40c60e4f6bc2#:~:text=Euro area annual inflation is,office of the European Union
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432

    I don't think being a Remainer or being a skiier is a protected characteristic under the Equality Act. That is the difference.
    Ah, so lazy stereotyping is OK, just so long as it's the right kind of stereotyping.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    carnforth said:

    Is is really possible they are just adding them up and dividing by 27?
    No

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644650/2-29072022-AP-EN.pdf/8b14d87f-df6c-aeb5-7dc9-40c60e4f6bc2#:~:text=Euro area annual inflation is,office of the European Union
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344

    Why are you so upset about people's from across the world are being welcomed into the UK
    Don't you recall the "Breaking Point" billboards? Oh and the "Turkey is joining the EU" poster. If you do the irony should not be lost on you.

    You were enlightened enough not to worry about such nonsense and voted Remain, plenty were concerned about this nonsense, and as such voted Leave.

    Now many people had perfectly respectable reasons for voting Leave but plenty of others did so because they wanted Eastern Europeans to go home. Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson sold this narrative, and they were right, the Eastern Europeans left. Well done Nigel, well done Boris. What Nigel Farage failed to tell us was that we would have to replace these people from further afield. In all fairness Boris Johnson realised the potential problem at the time and did suggest we could bring in our friends from the Indian subcontinent to cover any shortfalls. So to be fair, in this instance Boris Johnson at least partially told the truth, and on this point, at least, is no racist bigot.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    rcs1000 said:

    Ah, so lazy stereotyping is OK, just so long as it's the right kind of stereotyping.
    The law is the law:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_Act_2010#cite_note-31
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712

    No

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644650/2-29072022-AP-EN.pdf/8b14d87f-df6c-aeb5-7dc9-40c60e4f6bc2#:~:text=Euro area annual inflation is,office of the European Union
    Then your comment about the baltics heavily distorting the figure is indeed wrong.

    The methodology section in the PDF you link does not say how the headline figure is calculated, however.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,788
    Jonathan said:

    Luxury. We started the 70s in a septic tank in a lake.
    In a lake? Luxury. Our septic tank was in a puddle.
  • Red Arrows in Sidmouth tomorrow. I am really looking forward to it. They were brilliant last year. I just hope they’re sober.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    carnforth said:

    They are not. But France is a poor compar-tor because of Nuclear energy, when so much of our inflation is due to energy costs.
    France also owns its national electricity company so can and has controlled retail electricity prices.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862

    France also owns its national electricity company so can and has controlled retail electricity prices.
    If they nationalised everything, they could control all the prices, and everyone could be rich.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    rcs1000 said:

    Ah, so lazy stereotyping is OK, just so long as it's the right kind of stereotyping.


    If Eagles had any sense he’d just apologise for a moronic and unfunny post, rather than hide behind you.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    If they nationalised everything, they could control all the prices, and everyone could be rich.
    Absurd failure to engage with the argument.

    Electricity supply is a de facto monopoly and should be managed as such.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299

    Red Arrows in Sidmouth tomorrow. I am really looking forward to it. They were brilliant last year. I just hope they’re sober.

    I thought they were going to be in Clacton.
  • Yep. It was a moronic post.
    Leaving aside this specific instance, it never fails to astonish me that PBers indulge in this type of allegedly humorous pseudo-racist banter that, if it were to leak from PB into the real world might prove damaging (and we have seen this sort of thing before).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    So, new energy price cap announced tomorrow? Or will HMG intervene?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Andy_JS said:

    I thought they were going to be in Clacton.
    Can't they do both?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228
    Have we done this?

    https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1562744795147419655

    NEW: Voting intention in 18-24 year olds:

    LAB: 63% (+10)
    LIBDEM: 14% (+7)
    CON: 13% (-12)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    RFM: 2% (-3)
    GRN: 1% (-6)

    Via @Kantar_UKI
    , 18-22 August

    Changes w/28th July
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    In a lake? Luxury. Our septic tank was in a puddle.
    In 1976 our puddle completely dried up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Can't they do both?
    In one day? Public transport between Clacton and Sidmoth would take ages.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    CatMan said:

    Have we done this?

    https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1562744795147419655

    NEW: Voting intention in 18-24 year olds:

    LAB: 63% (+10)
    LIBDEM: 14% (+7)
    CON: 13% (-12)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    RFM: 2% (-3)
    GRN: 1% (-6)

    Via @Kantar_UKI
    , 18-22 August

    Changes w/28th July

    Labour always win under 30s, it is 45 to 65s who win elections
  • Jonathan said:

    In one day? Public transport between Clacton and Sidmoth would take ages.
    You’re on fire tonight!

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,875
    The UK is in the low-middle of the pack for inflation rates in Europe. Less than Spain, Holland, Belgium; more than France, Germany, Italy

    Much lower than Eastern Europe
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    CatMan said:

    Have we done this?

    https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1562744795147419655

    NEW: Voting intention in 18-24 year olds:

    LAB: 63% (+10)
    LIBDEM: 14% (+7)
    CON: 13% (-12)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    RFM: 2% (-3)
    GRN: 1% (-6)

    Via @Kantar_UKI
    , 18-22 August

    Changes w/28th July

    Green @ 1% is the most surprising element of this poll imo.

    (Well, that and the Tories getting as many as 13%)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Leon said:

    The UK is in the low-middle of the pack for inflation rates in Europe. Less than Spain, Holland, Belgium; more than France, Germany, Italy

    Much lower than Eastern Europe

    Excellent. UK is faring better than Eastern Europe. Sound the trumpets!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    In 1976 our puddle completely dried up.
    You were lucky. We dreamed of a dried up puddle. We had to get by living in Maggie Thatcher's handbag.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Jonathan said:

    You were lucky. We dreamed of a dried up puddle. We had to get by living in Maggie Thatcher's handbag.
    A handbag!!?

    (Oh, sorry - wrong script.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,875

    Excellent. UK is faring better than Eastern Europe. Sound the trumpets!
    Mate, the whole world is in the toilet. We’re just bickering about who is further along the U-bend
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862
    Jonathan said:

    You were lucky. We dreamed of a dried up puddle. We had to get by living in Maggie Thatcher's handbag.
    In a handbag? Luxury! I had to live in Bracknell.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Excellent. UK is faring better than Eastern Europe. Sound the trumpets!
    When were Spain and the Benelux nations in Eastern Europe?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    Wrong on many levels. Visas issued means we have control over who comes.
    Wrong in the key aspect - the Tory manifestos promised to reduce from too high immigration - so you are suggesting there actually is a control mechanism, but those who promised to use one are making the conscious decision not to use one, even though that trashes key promises to the electorate?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344
    HYUFD said:

    Labour always win under 30s, it is 45 to 65s who win elections
    You could always raise the voting age to 30 to even things up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Wrong in the key aspect - the Tory manifestos promised to reduce from too high immigration - so you are suggesting there actually is a control mechanism, but those who promised to use one are making the conscious decision not to use one, even though that trashes key promises to the electorate?
    EU immigration has fallen now free movement has ended
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Leon said:

    Mate, the whole world is in the toilet. We’re just bickering about who is further along the U-bend
    Fair point. I concede.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    Stewart Wood
    @StewartWood
    What a staggering remark from our Foreign Secretary, let alone from the very likely next Prime Minister. #LizTruss
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,299
    18-24s always start off very anti-Tory and always end up being very strongly Tory about 35 years later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Green @ 1% is the most surprising element of this poll imo.

    (Well, that and the Tories getting as many as 13%)
    Indeed, only Harry Enfield Tory Boys vote Tory in their teens and early 20s
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573

    Green @ 1% is the most surprising element of this poll imo.

    (Well, that and the Tories getting as many as 13%)
    Who cares? Most of them wont bother to vote in the end and that is why Tories are able to feck their lives in favour of the pensioners.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    HYUFD said:

    EU immigration has fallen now free movement has ended
    Excellent.

    So: fewer europeans, many more non-europeans. I am sure that's exactly what the red wall Leavers voted for.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344
    Andy_JS said:

    18-24s always start off very anti-Tory and always end up being very strongly Tory about 35 years later.

    Not me Squire. I still hate the ground Tories walk on.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Suddenly migrants don’t strain public services, reduce local wages, and generate housing inflation after all!

    Good to know.
  • Jonathan said:

    In one day? Public transport between Clacton and Sidmoth would take ages.
    5 hours 9 minutes train from Clacton to Honiton, then 30 mins bus ride to Sidmouth
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, only Harry Enfield Tory Boys vote Tory in their teens and early 20s
    Which way did you vote in your early 20s?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573

    So, new energy price cap announced tomorrow? Or will HMG intervene?

    I think the cap has to be announced whatever.

    And then something happens.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,788
    edited August 2022
    The dominant argument against freedom of movement (FOM), and therefore for Brexit, was the intolerable pressure placed on public services by high levels of immigration. This was pushed by the right-wing press and most Brexiteers. In brief, it was: we don't have a racist bone in our body, but FOM led to:

    = pressure on the NHS - e.g. 'it's increasingly hard to get a GP appointment'
    - class sizes are too high, and too many don't speak English as a first language
    - pressure on housing leading to shortages of social housing and inflated house prices
    - too many immigrants drive down wages at the lower end
    - specific pressures on 'culture' in towns and cities that had particularly high levels of immigration
    - these islands are simply overcrowded which puts strain on transport etc.

    What I don't understand is why these factors don't apply now, given that we have the same, or higher, levels of immigration than when we had FOM. The lower wages one can be countered, I suppose, by the higher skills level of the 'new' immigrants, but the rest of them?

    It's hard to imagine why the Mail etc. have gone all quiet on this.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862

    Stewart Wood
    @StewartWood
    What a staggering remark from our Foreign Secretary, let alone from the very likely next Prime Minister. #LizTruss

    I'm genuinely staggered by the number of commentators who are losing it over that remark. It's quite mild compared to things that French ministers have said over the last 12 months.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I think the cap has to be announced whatever.

    And then something happens.

    "Shit, meet the fan."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, only Harry Enfield Tory Boys vote Tory in their teens and early 20s
    True, as I recall you voted Plaid at that age.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,788
    CatMan said:

    Have we done this?

    https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1562744795147419655

    NEW: Voting intention in 18-24 year olds:

    LAB: 63% (+10)
    LIBDEM: 14% (+7)
    CON: 13% (-12)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    RFM: 2% (-3)
    GRN: 1% (-6)

    Via @Kantar_UKI
    , 18-22 August

    Changes w/28th July

    That 1% Green share, in that age group, doesn't smell right to me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    Green @ 1% is the most surprising element of this poll imo.

    (Well, that and the Tories getting as many as 13%)
    I agree. The Greens utterly crashed to nothing among this group is the main take out. Surprising to the point of open mouth incredible.

    I don’t believe it. I would need it confirmed by other pollsters to trust it.

    In fact, there had to be a reason why Kantor polls hate Labour and love Tories, perhaps they canvas more oldies than young people as part their methodology, so the % above is just opinion of 12 people having ice cream outside a technical college.
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour always win under 30s, it is 45 to 65s who win elections
    Are you sure? Here are the age splits from the last few General Elections;



    Hard to tell for sure, because the splits are 18-24 and 25-34, but it looks like the Conservatives might have snuck wins in the 18-30 group in '92 and '10.

    Remember kids (and oldies): the current division in politics along age lines is a very recent innovation and almost certainly a Very Bad Thing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2022
    Personally I am of the belief that immigration *was* too high, and remains too high (though hard to tell if we are counting students, as I wouldn’t personally include those).

    Although an overall economic boon, the government never bothers to compensate the undoubted extra stress on infrastructure, and there’s a sense that it delivers a pace of societal change minus real democratic consent.

    I defend immigration in principle but recognise there are limits.

    In theory greater control is a good thing, but in practice, FOM gave us essentially the same as what we have now with added benefits besides. We swapped a pragmatic (though improvable) system with a bureaucratic shit-show.

    The British used to be pragmatists. What the fuck happened?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,788
    Andy_JS said:

    18-24s always start off very anti-Tory and always end up being very strongly Tory about 35 years later.

    If you removed the words 'always' and wrote 'tend to' I could agree with you. But otherwise, no.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    That 1% Green share, in that age group, doesn't smell right to me.
    Do you give all the polls the smell test before anything else?

    Having kept us guessing, Kantor have just released on their web site that the chart above is actually a secret ballot of Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I'm genuinely staggered by the number of commentators who are losing it over that remark. It's quite mild compared to things that French ministers have said over the last 12 months.
    Who cares.
    Britain used to be better than this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Are you sure? Here are the age splits from the last few General Elections;



    Hard to tell for sure, because the splits are 18-24 and 25-34, but it looks like the Conservatives might have snuck wins in the 18-30 group in '92 and '10.

    Remember kids (and oldies): the current division in politics along age lines is a very recent innovation and almost certainly a Very Bad Thing.
    So on that chart Labour has certainly at least won under 25s at every general election since 1992.

    Labour also likely won 18-30s in 1992 too, 2010 maybe the only exception but probably because Brown was so unpopular and that was in the midst of the Clegg surge rather than any big move to Cameron
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    Mate, the whole world is in the toilet. We’re just bickering about who is further along the U-bend
    True, but some places are less likely than others to get nuked or starved to f*** in WW3. Where are some reasonable places to seek refuge? NZ is on many people's lists. I was thinking maybe South America. Europe and anywhere within 1000 miles of Taiwan, no thanks.

    The chance that historians if any exist in 100 years' time will look back at Britain in the early 2020s and think "They handled the Ukrainian business so well" is, let's face it, infinitesimal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Dynamo said:

    True, but some places are less likely to get nuked or starved to f*** than others in WW3. Where are some reasonable places to seek refuge? NZ is on many people's lists. I was thinking maybe South America. Europe and anywhere within 1000 miles of Taiwan, no thanks.
    NZ. Can recommend.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,875

    I'm genuinely staggered by the number of commentators who are losing it over that remark. It's quite mild compared to things that French ministers have said over the last 12 months.

    They’re Remainers, what do you expect? They despise Britain and worship anything EU

    It’s only now you’ve changed sides, and been redpilled, that you can see the pathology for what it is
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Which way did you vote in your early 20s?
    Tory but then I was a Harry Enfield Tory Boy
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,769
    edited August 2022
    Dynamo said:

    True, but some places are less likely than others to get nuked or starved to f*** in WW3. Where are some reasonable places to seek refuge? NZ is on many people's lists. I was thinking maybe South America. Europe and anywhere within 1000 miles of Taiwan, no thanks.

    The chance that historians if any exist in 100 years' time will look back at Britain in the early 2020s and think "They handled the Ukrainian business so well" is, let's face it, infinitesimal.
    Depends who's letting refugees in, I suppose. Best check there's no risk of being sent to, say, Rwanda.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    I'm genuinely staggered by the number of commentators who are losing it over that remark. It's quite mild compared to things that French ministers have said over the last 12 months.
    Your spin of a ring of steel around Truss is admirable, and always very patiently, calmly posted - and this time you do have a point. Out of all of the remarks in all the campaign, this one had really brought on more attention and rebuke than expected. Is it diplomacy is all part of a game, and being blunt and honest to your party members how you see it just isn’t part of the game you always have to play at that level?
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory but then I was a Harry Enfield Tory Boy
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zInyrDfR4us
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712


    On the original post in this thread about record visa approvals, you can see from this graph that the record high is from student numbers and hongkongers. So the brexit angle is a bit dubious.

    Lots more here, which is where I took the graph from:

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    5 hours 9 minutes train from Clacton to Honiton, then 30 mins bus ride to Sidmouth
    Are you going down the seaside on bank holiday?
  • Leon said:


    They’re Remainers, what do you expect? They despise Britain and worship anything EU

    It’s only now you’ve changed sides, and been redpilled, that you can see the pathology for what it is
    You spend so little time in the UK, why should you care?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,788

    Do you give all the polls the smell test before anything else?

    Having kept us guessing, Kantor have just released on their web site that the chart above is actually a secret ballot of Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet.
    Yes - I'm of an age where the smell test works better than any other psephological analysis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,875
    Dynamo said:

    True, but some places are less likely than others to get nuked or starved to f*** in WW3. Where are some reasonable places to seek refuge? NZ is on many people's lists. I was thinking maybe South America. Europe and anywhere within 1000 miles of Taiwan, no thanks.

    The chance that historians if any exist in 100 years' time will look back at Britain in the early 2020s and think "They handled the Ukrainian business so well" is, let's face it, infinitesimal.

    I quite fancy Oz. An hour north of Sydney. The
    Hawkesbury river, or Pittwater

    But Sydney might get zapped. So the Atherton Highlands in Queensland

    Or the wine lands of Chile
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    HYUFD said:

    EU immigration has fallen now free movement has ended
    Yes. But Truss Trade Deals immigration is making up for it.

    Why do you think Tories will leave office not delivering on their bringing down immigration repeated promise? Is it too much a hit on growth on the economy, and can’t really be done without that?
  • The dominant argument against freedom of movement (FOM), and therefore for Brexit, was the intolerable pressure placed on public services by high levels of immigration. This was pushed by the right-wing press and most Brexiteers. In brief, it was: we don't have a racist bone in our body, but FOM led to:

    = pressure on the NHS - e.g. 'it's increasingly hard to get a GP appointment'
    - class sizes are too high, and too many don't speak English as a first language
    - pressure on housing leading to shortages of social housing and inflated house prices
    - too many immigrants drive down wages at the lower end
    - specific pressures on 'culture' in towns and cities that had particularly high levels of immigration
    - these islands are simply overcrowded which puts strain on transport etc.

    What I don't understand is why these factors don't apply now, given that we have the same, or higher, levels of immigration than when we had FOM. The lower wages one can be countered, I suppose, by the higher skills level of the 'new' immigrants, but the rest of them?

    It's hard to imagine why the Mail etc. have gone all quiet on this.

    Many middle class folk coming to Britain aren't immigrants but more broadly, expats. They'll be here for a few years, have private health insureance, shun the local schools and aren't interested in brick-laying. And their effect on housing gets lost in the general crisis in that area.

    (Not entirely true. As a foreigner, me and a lot of my friends have become immigrants. But that's the general vibe I get. The only time anyone ever reailed at me was because I said years ago I could vote because of my Irish passport.)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    edited August 2022
    carnforth said:



    On the original post in this thread about record visa approvals, you can see from this graph that the record high is from student numbers and hongkongers. So the brexit angle is a bit dubious.

    Lots more here, which is where I took the graph from:

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

    I misspoke: it looks to be almost all from Hongkongers.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    Yes - I'm of an age where the smell test works better than any other psephological analysis.
    I am sure I will find things in the fridge tomorrow night that will fail a smell test, and some will fail psephological analysis too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078

    A handbag!!?

    (Oh, sorry - wrong script.)
    “ Oh, sorry - wrong script “

    That’s the problem with being too earnest.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    carnforth said:

    I misspoke: it looks to be almost all from Hongkongers.
    That (and counting students) would certainly explain the bizarre spectacle of high migration plus cross-sector labour shortages.

    Neil O’Brien MP was banging on about West Africans and family reunions the other day so someone’s got their wires crossed somewhere.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Many middle class folk coming to Britain aren't immigrants but more broadly, expats. They'll be here for a few years, have private health insureance, shun the local schools and aren't interested in brick-laying. And their effect on housing gets lost in the general crisis in that area.

    (Not entirely true. As a foreigner, me and a lot of my friends have become immigrants. But that's the general vibe I get. The only time anyone ever reailed at me was because I said years ago I could vote because of my Irish passport.)
    I came, paid a million pounds or so of tax, hardly used public services, and left.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712

    That (and counting students) would certainly explain the bizarre spectacle of high migration plus cross-sector labour shortages.

    Neil O’Brien MP was banging on about West Africans and family reunions the other day so someone’s got their wires crossed somewhere.

    With family reunion, the net figure is small, but is probably almost equal to the gross figure: these people are probably staying for life. With students and work visas, the net and gross figures will be wildly different, because of high churn.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898

    I came, paid a million pounds or so of tax, hardly used public services, and left.
    I imagine that the UK government would be very happy to welcome you back for a return visit on the same terms. They might even throw in a free eye and dental check up? :smile:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432

    Germany is 8.5% and Italy is 8.9%

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14644650/2-29072022-AP-EN.pdf/8b14d87f-df6c-aeb5-7dc9-40c60e4f6bc2#:~:text=Euro area annual inflation is,office of the European Union
    The Germans say it is 7.5% - https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/_node.html#:~:text=The inflation rate in Germany,May 2022 at +7.9%.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    The Ukrainian side is saying that shelling caused fires at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant which caused it to be disconnected temporarily from the Ukrainian grid. The Russian side say there has been Ukrainian shelling, but I don't know what they are saying about disconnection or otherwise. Isolation could cause cooling to be dependent on diesel generators AIUI. A cooling failure could possibly, although wouldn't necessarily, cause a meltdown. Output can't simply be rerouted from the Ukrainian grid to the Donbas grid with a flick of a switch.
  • Are you going down the seaside on bank holiday?
    Probably not, will be too busy. Last Sunday went from the newly opened Barking Riverside boat pier (just 2 miles south of Ilford!) as far as Battersea Power Station.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    HYUFD said:

    When were Spain and the Benelux nations in Eastern Europe?
    Ah hem - Luxembourg's inflation rate is 6.2%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    @HYUFD - you were using the Flash Estimate for inflation, not the final numbers.
  • Absurd failure to engage with the argument.

    Electricity supply is a de facto monopoly and should be managed as such.
    Electricity supply is not remotely a de facto monopoly. There are a plethora of companies generating electricity.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Out of interest, has anyone made any bets for the next General Election and if so what have you gone for?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Given Truss has won the leadership contest she didn’t need to go chasing votes of the members who are overwhelmingly anti Macron and anti EU .

    Her comments are a big sign as to what the next two years are going to be like . Constant battles with the EU and a very divisive period where any criticism of the governments approach will be labeled as unpatriotic by the Daily Hate and the rest of the sycophantic right wing press .
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    nico679 said:

    Given Truss has won the leadership contest she didn’t need to go chasing votes of the members who are overwhelmingly anti Macron and anti EU .

    Her comments are a big sign as to what the next two years are going to be like . Constant battles with the EU and a very divisive period where any criticism of the governments approach will be labeled as unpatriotic by the Daily Hate and the rest of the sycophantic right wing press .

    I very much agree.

    She obviously enjoys appealing to baser instincts and populist fantasy, and we should expect that to continue.

    The only consolation is that the mood is settling in for a change of government, regardless of how much bullshit she spouts.
  • nico679 said:

    Given Truss has won the leadership contest she didn’t need to go chasing votes of the members who are overwhelmingly anti Macron and anti EU .

    Her comments are a big sign as to what the next two years are going to be like . Constant battles with the EU and a very divisive period where any criticism of the governments approach will be labeled as unpatriotic by the Daily Hate and the rest of the sycophantic right wing press .

    Constant battles with the EU are what the UK has had for about the past 34 years (when it was called the EEC).

    The EU should be treated with realpolitik. Truss's comments weren't outrageous, Macron is neither a friend nor a foe, he is simply the leader of one our neighbours. A leader has shown himself not to be friendly, but has not shown himself to be a foe either, simply a leader interested in France which is his job.

    Put away your rose tinted goggles pretending that other countries will be nice to us if we're just nice to them, that we're all friends. We're not. We're neighbours, they know that, we should too.

    As far as the NI issue is concerned, it really isn't a stretch to say the UK holds all the cards. NI is legally a part of the UK and legally it is not a part of the EU. Our sovereign law comes first, just as it does in any over sovereign country.

    All that matters between the UK and the EU is diplomacy and as far as diplomacy is concerned, nearly all of the countries of the EU don't want a trade war with the UK. They want the real war on their Eastern flanks to be resolved with a victory for the defenders not the aggressors who are threatening them too. In that the UK is a stronger ally than France, or Germany, or Ireland.

    As much as it might irritate people like @Cicero nations like Estonia, Poland etc are not going to vote unanimously for trade war sanctions against the UK when the UK is aiding a real war happening in the East.

    It is time to put the petty squabbles of Brexit behind us and Truss can do that. Implement the NI Protocol Bill, shut down the issue, and move the hell on already.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,336

    Wallace will be off to head up NATO by then
    The next NATO SecGen has to be ideally..

    a) A woman
    b) Eastern European or Baltic. 'Emerging Europe' as the Americans say.
    c) Have good relations with the EU as the US long term strategy is for the EU to defend Europe's territorial integrity.
    d) Not look like Homer Simpson.

    Baldy Ben ticks none of those boxes. Kaja Kallas or Daria Grybauskaite seem much more likely.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    Dura_Ace said:

    The next NATO SecGen has to be ideally..

    a) A woman
    b) Eastern European or Baltic. 'Emerging Europe' as the Americans say.
    c) Have good relations with the EU as the US long term strategy is for the EU to defend Europe's territorial integrity.
    d) Not look like Homer Simpson.

    Baldy Ben ticks none of those boxes. Kaja Kallas or Daria Grybauskaite seem much more likely.
    If he really wants it, Ben needs to start transitioning now then? 🫡
This discussion has been closed.