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ConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,134
    Carnyx said:
    Not so much FFS as for fucks, Sake.

    Not without precedent though, both the Tsar's government and Gorbachev's government got into deep financial trouble due to anti-drinking campaigns just as external crises meant spending went through the roof. In the case of Nicholas II in 1914 he hadn't realised between a quarter and a third of his income came from taxes on vodka.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    I think it's easy to mistake a war of attrition for a stalemate, but they're pretty different, because there's enough damage being inflicted in a war of attrition for one side or the other to reach a breaking point where it can no longer defend the current front lines.

    The Ukrainians managed to some extent to move the focus of the war from the Donbas to Kherson, and this seems to have shifted the balance of the war of attrition more in their favour.

    It's very hard for us to discern from the outside how close each side is to a breaking point, but I think the idea of a stalemate is overdone. Ukraine still suffers from shortages of equipment and trained manpower, while Russian logistics are vulnerable and they have suffered tremendous casualties.

    There is much more potential for movement in the front line over winter. If anything, winter will put higher demand on logistics and personnel, making it more likely that the current positions become untenable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    edited August 18
    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Would you make it up? Only the name of the Trump Organisation's CFO could be roughly translated as mountain of weasels.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,134
    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    edited August 18
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
    What's the point of having Raab C. Brexit as deputy PM then?
    I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK, and how the cabinet works, we are completely unreliant on the role of deputy PM.
    Quite; hence the double nature of my comment. It does seem an odd position - if it was just something to keep someone quiet and out of mischief it should be called something else.
    It's a constitutional innovation we should do away with, that's been used by Prime Ministers as a tool of party or coalition management, but improperly constrains the Cabinet and the Monarch on the choice of a successor to the Prime Minister should a vacancy arise unexpectedly.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Prime_Minister_of_the_United_Kingdom
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,373
    edited August 18
    "A possible challenge for her is that over the past few weeks in seeking to get the support of the membership she has perhaps had to say things and make commitments on issues which she would not have done if MPs had had the final say."

    She's said them, but did she have to say them? Certainly she carried on saying them long after the result became a foregone conclusion.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,134
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Half the side out as well!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,312

    Poor old Rishi. The Times did not even bother to mention he was criticised as well, although his proposals are more nebulous than Liz's.

    “The reality is that the UK has got poorer over the last year. That makes tax and spending decisions all the more difficult. It is hard to square the promises that both Ms Truss and Mr Sunak are making to cut taxes over the medium-term with the absence of any specific measures to cut public spending and a presumed desire to manage the nation’s finances responsibly.”
    https://ifs.org.uk/publications/16154

    That’s because the Times is behind Sunak, for all the good it is doing him.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,112

    Happy Teenage-Girls-Leaping-in-the-Air Day!

    Meanwhile, 13degC here - central heating back on!

    Ah, that will be why there are so many adverts for university clearing.

    Time for my annual "the government should consider letting boys take A-levels" joke.
    And the annual custom of amazement esp from BBC and Guardian that highly competitive courses at highly competitive universities have more well qualified applicants than they have places, even though that is what the words 'highly competitive' mean.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    Stalemate is the current situation, but there is the possibility of something more dramatic as the Autumn mud season and winter come in. The Russian deteriorating logistic situation and irreplaceable losses within their better air and armoured units could make for a retreat not dissimilar to the retreat from Kyiv.

    Then there is the possibility of a civil or military nuclear incident. Let's hope not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    I am far from convinced that these prolonged leadership races which seem to go on and on are healthy thing for a party. The problem is that if you involve the membership then you have to factor in the time to produce and send out the ballot packs ...

    Would Mike also support the Liberal Democrats changing their procedures & removing the right of the membership to elect their leader ? :smile:

    If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party :smile:

    Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.

    Mike’s header didn’t ‘demand’ any such thing.

    But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
    It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.

    (edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
    Now repaired,)
    Who is running the country? Step forward the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

    Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.

    He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
    What's the point of having Raab C. Brexit as deputy PM then?
    Keeps him happy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    I think it's easy to mistake a war of attrition for a stalemate, but they're pretty different, because there's enough damage being inflicted in a war of attrition for one side or the other to reach a breaking point where it can no longer defend the current front lines.

    The Ukrainians managed to some extent to move the focus of the war from the Donbas to Kherson, and this seems to have shifted the balance of the war of attrition more in their favour.

    It's very hard for us to discern from the outside how close each side is to a breaking point, but I think the idea of a stalemate is overdone. Ukraine still suffers from shortages of equipment and trained manpower, while Russian logistics are vulnerable and they have suffered tremendous casualties.

    There is much more potential for movement in the front line over winter. If anything, winter will put higher demand on logistics and personnel, making it more likely that the current positions become untenable.
    One point about Kherson is Russia is planning a referendum there. Once it's passed (And it will be rigged in favour of joining Russia), Russia can legally (Well within their own legal system) send reserves and regular forces there without declaring a general mobilisation.
    All of course fig leaf moves but observing the правовая is essential still in the kremlin.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,988
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Presumably you spent most of your time in the JP hospitality tent, revisiting old friendships?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Morning.

    For racing fans, I enjoyed watching this yesterday - https://youtu.be/FvN7ifCXO_0.

    More than a touch of Frankel about Baeed. Lovely stuff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    edited August 18
    Jonathan said:

    Big day in the Jonathan household.

    Wife currently in hospital for major surgery. Son just got A level results. Four A*. History, Economics and both Maths. Nice surprise for her to wake up to this afternoon.

    And your Son is off where? Twin A's best friend got into Newcastle to read English - I'm just glad I told her last year that she was more then bright enough to go there and to not just list the old poly's she was previously applying to...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,312

    Jonathan said:

    Big day in the Jonathan household.

    Wife currently in hospital for major surgery. Son just got A level results. Four A*. History, Economics and both Maths. Nice surprise for her to wake up to this afternoon.

    Wonderful tonic for you and your wife

    You must be very proud of your son and all the very best for a quick recovery for your good lady
    Couldn't put it better - I second this.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    And they are all working in their constituencies during recess - fake news
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    The real news I took away from reading that article is that one of the leaders of the Polish mafia is known only as "Wanka" -

    "According to reports in Polish media, in Poland, Piotr Kapuscinski is known as “Broda” (Beard), an influential former member of the Pruszków gang, once the largest mafia in the country. He was the right-hand man of the group’s inner leadership, "Wanka" and "Malizna," and laundered money for them, according to Mariusz Kaminski..."

    I presume said mafia don is either a) a huge fan of cockney gangster flicks or b) he's a 6 ft 8 brick hithouse of a man and nobody dares tell him what his name means in English.

    Either way, a bit of levity in an otherwise shocking report (and bravo to the Kyiv Independent for publishing it).
    Maybe he knows…. Ref Firefly

    “Only a very brave man would wear that hat”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,312

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    And they are all working in their constituencies during recess - fake news
    Almost inconceivable that Truss has lost The Star. Has any Tory leadership candidate lost The Star and gone on to win?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    The real news I took away from reading that article is that one of the leaders of the Polish mafia is known only as "Wanka" -

    "According to reports in Polish media, in Poland, Piotr Kapuscinski is known as “Broda” (Beard), an influential former member of the Pruszków gang, once the largest mafia in the country. He was the right-hand man of the group’s inner leadership, "Wanka" and "Malizna," and laundered money for them, according to Mariusz Kaminski..."

    I presume said mafia don is either a) a huge fan of cockney gangster flicks or b) he's a 6 ft 8 brick hithouse of a man and nobody dares tell him what his name means in English.

    Either way, a bit of levity in an otherwise shocking report (and bravo to the Kyiv Independent for publishing it).
    Maybe he knows…. Ref Firefly

    “Only a very brave man would wear that hat”
    Or he does a regular Life of Brian routine. Is there anybody else here who finds the name Wanka risible?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,312
    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    The real news I took away from reading that article is that one of the leaders of the Polish mafia is known only as "Wanka" -

    "According to reports in Polish media, in Poland, Piotr Kapuscinski is known as “Broda” (Beard), an influential former member of the Pruszków gang, once the largest mafia in the country. He was the right-hand man of the group’s inner leadership, "Wanka" and "Malizna," and laundered money for them, according to Mariusz Kaminski..."

    I presume said mafia don is either a) a huge fan of cockney gangster flicks or b) he's a 6 ft 8 brick hithouse of a man and nobody dares tell him what his name means in English.

    Either way, a bit of levity in an otherwise shocking report (and bravo to the Kyiv Independent for publishing it).
    Maybe he knows…. Ref Firefly

    “Only a very brave man would wear that hat”
    Or he does a regular Life of Brian routine. Is there anybody else here who finds the name Wanka risible?
    He has a wife you know...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,944
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Careful. PB is not the place for this kind of cold analytical post which impugns the Ukrainians as engaging in behaviour which is unsurprising in war.
    To make folks happier, then, I'll point out that you're unlikely to see comparable articles in the Russian media.
    Indeed, it speaks well of Ukraine that the press is free to make this sort of criticism.

    I think the Ukranian forces are a very mixed bunch in terms of training and equipment, some very good and others poor. Overall motivation seems good, but as time and experience progress, I think they will become more consistent.

    Soldiers complaining about their officers is of course nothing new or unique.
    The history of the American Civil War, for instance, shows the perils of rapidly expanding armies.

    The rapid promotion of officers produced a crop that ranged from genius to useless to being more useful to the enemy than your own side…. with toppings of insanity and criminality.

    The trick seemed to be a robust approach to binning the deadbeats. Grant sacked officers after every battle, IIRC.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
    I'd say Desantis is perhaps 30% and 60%, he looks very very likely (Which would be bad news for my book) to win if Trump is legally barred. But I don't think he beats Trump in a straight Nom fight.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 120
    Does anyone have any polling on public opinion on the train strikes?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
    That this is so doesn't make the merging of 3 regulators with very different functions and focuses, especially if done for the purpose of attacking bureaucrats rather than properly regulating the financial sector, the answer.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    Foxy said:

    The Russian deteriorating logistic situation and irreplaceable losses within their better air and armoured units could make for a retreat not dissimilar to the retreat from Kyiv.

    Conventional, crewed aviation seems to be becoming increasing irrelevant in this war. Both sides will launch multiple SAMs on anything flying above about 50m without restraint or regard to deconfliction.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Presumably you spent most of your time in the JP hospitality tent, revisiting old friendships?
    Ha, not really.

    Very middle class genteel protest it was though. Did it at lunch rather than when play was on, with a nice doctor lady handing out leaflets and being very reasonable and articulate and smiley.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Update on the war more generally from a regular pro-Ukrainian blogger (based in Austria) - skip the chat about Zelensky to get a front-by-front analysis.

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9

    The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.

    The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
    I think it's easy to mistake a war of attrition for a stalemate, but they're pretty different, because there's enough damage being inflicted in a war of attrition for one side or the other to reach a breaking point where it can no longer defend the current front lines.

    The Ukrainians managed to some extent to move the focus of the war from the Donbas to Kherson, and this seems to have shifted the balance of the war of attrition more in their favour.

    It's very hard for us to discern from the outside how close each side is to a breaking point, but I think the idea of a stalemate is overdone. Ukraine still suffers from shortages of equipment and trained manpower, while Russian logistics are vulnerable and they have suffered tremendous casualties.

    There is much more potential for movement in the front line over winter. If anything, winter will put higher demand on logistics and personnel, making it more likely that the current positions become untenable.
    One point about Kherson is Russia is planning a referendum there. Once it's passed (And it will be rigged in favour of joining Russia), Russia can legally (Well within their own legal system) send reserves and regular forces there without declaring a general mobilisation.
    All of course fig leaf moves but observing the правовая is essential still in the kremlin.
    That's an interesting aspect of the importance of annexation that I wasn't aware of.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003
    edited August 18

    Does anyone have any polling on public opinion on the train strikes?

    Sky told Mick Lynch this morning he has the support of the public

    Not sure where he got that information from unless there has been a poll
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
    That this is so doesn't make the merging of 3 regulators with very different functions and focuses, especially if done for the purpose of attacking bureaucrats rather than properly regulating the financial sector, the answer.
    The focus is all wrong imo on financial regulation. The regulator's job should not be to treat people as if they're idiots but to make sure the people selling the products are selling what they say they are.
    For instance - Crowdfunding a wind turbine, with the investors getting paid upon generation. The FCA should make sure the cash is actually going toward a wind turbine rather than worrying about whether or not the product is being sold to "sophisticated investors".
    If the wind turbine falls over during a storm and the insurance on it doesn't cover the cost + generation payments, well that's too bad for the investors and the risk they are taking rather than worrying about the person running the scheme trousering the money and buggering off to the Bahamas without any investment in a turbine.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    edited August 18

    Does anyone have any polling on public opinion on the train strikes?

    There is https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/survey-results/daily/2022/06/08/d6f7e/3 from June.

    Edit and https://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/news/latest-public-polling-shows-support-for-modernisation-reforms shows that if you ask people questions without proper explanation of what you mean by modernisation (and its consequences) you will get the answers you want...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
    My freestanding Trumps are -

    To run either for GOP or Ind - 75%
    To get the GOP nom - 25%
    To regain the WH - 10%

    Sort of thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
    My freestanding Trumps are -

    To run either for GOP or Ind - 75%
    To get the GOP nom - 25%
    To regain the WH - 10%

    Sort of thing.
    You think he's only 33% to win the GOP nomination if he runs ?

    Also you have the GOP at only 40% to win the White House ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Cyclefree said:

    Morning.

    For racing fans, I enjoyed watching this yesterday - https://youtu.be/FvN7ifCXO_0.

    More than a touch of Frankel about Baeed. Lovely stuff.

    Yes, terrific. One upside of the Lords deluge was I got home to watch that live.

    The trainer is being too cautious with the horse imo - just as Cecil was with Frankel.

    The Champion Stakes adds little now to the legend. I'd like to see 12 furlongs and the Arc or the Breeders.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,988
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Presumably you spent most of your time in the JP hospitality tent, revisiting old friendships?
    Ha, not really.

    Very middle class genteel protest it was though. Did it at lunch rather than when play was on, with a nice doctor lady handing out leaflets and being very reasonable and articulate and smiley.
    Lucky they didn't target you as a fat cat. Narrow escape I would say.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003
    eek said:

    Does anyone have any polling on public opinion on the train strikes?

    There is https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/survey-results/daily/2022/06/08/d6f7e/3 from June.

    Edit and https://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/news/latest-public-polling-shows-support-for-modernisation-reforms shows that if you ask people questions without proper explanation of what you mean by modernisation (and its consequences) you will get the answers you want...
    So by 49%/35% Sky were wrong in telling Lynch he had public support this morning
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Half the side out as well!
    Yep. Can't complain we didn't see much drama. It was enjoyable (although better if they'd have been SA wickets of course).

    Slightly galling thing was 2 less* overs and we'd have got half our money back.

    Yes, "less" NOT "fewer".
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    edited August 18

    Does anyone have any polling on public opinion on the train strikes?

    A quick look around my office reveals a big majority for: "who cares, my employer said we don't have to come in on strike days, so I'm WFH (which I prefer anyway)".

    Even those who come in by Tube are out today.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
    That this is so doesn't make the merging of 3 regulators with very different functions and focuses, especially if done for the purpose of attacking bureaucrats rather than properly regulating the financial sector, the answer.
    The focus is all wrong imo on financial regulation. The regulator's job should not be to treat people as if they're idiots but to make sure the people selling the products are selling what they say they are.
    For instance - Crowdfunding a wind turbine, with the investors getting paid upon generation. The FCA should make sure the cash is actually going toward a wind turbine rather than worrying about whether or not the product is being sold to "sophisticated investors".
    If the wind turbine falls over during a storm and the insurance on it doesn't cover the cost + generation payments, well that's too bad for the investors and the risk they are taking rather than worrying about the person running the scheme trousering the money and buggering off to the Bahamas without any investment in a turbine.
    From what I hear, it is an unhappy place at the moment. Plus a lot of the chickens from the Bailey era are coming home to roost.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,116

    The Daily Star nails it:-


    It's bollocks though. That might be the parliamentary recesses but a PM is on call 24/7 and has to deal with issues wherever they are all year round.
    And they are all working in their constituencies during recess - fake news
    Almost inconceivable that Truss has lost The Star. Has any Tory leadership candidate lost The Star and gone on to win?
    They called the 2019 election better than anyone else.


  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    Chris said:

    "A possible challenge for her is that over the past few weeks in seeking to get the support of the membership she has perhaps had to say things and make commitments on issues which she would not have done if MPs had had the final say."

    She's said them, but did she have to say them? Certainly she carried on saying them long after the result became a foregone conclusion.

    Yes, that's the most striking thing about the contest. The clear front-runner has no need to do anything other than play safe, and if being rational would want to keep options open and not give hostages to fortune. Instead, Liz Truss comes up with something like two barmy proposals a day, and then U-turns on about half of them. We have to hope she'll U-turn on the other half.

    If this is how she's going to act as PM, we're in for a very stormy ride. It will be government by stream of consciousness, and it will be an unmitigated disaster.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,182
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,134
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
    That this is so doesn't make the merging of 3 regulators with very different functions and focuses, especially if done for the purpose of attacking bureaucrats rather than properly regulating the financial sector, the answer.
    Although attacking bureaucrats sounds like a perfectly good idea, they did this with Ofsted a few years back when they told it to take over care homes and a load of functions previously discharged by the HSE.

    The result was predictably an even bigger car crash than usual, which given it's OFSTED was saying something.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633

    Chris said:

    "A possible challenge for her is that over the past few weeks in seeking to get the support of the membership she has perhaps had to say things and make commitments on issues which she would not have done if MPs had had the final say."

    She's said them, but did she have to say them? Certainly she carried on saying them long after the result became a foregone conclusion.

    Yes, that's the most striking thing about the contest. The clear front-runner has no need to do anything other than play safe, and if being rational would want to keep options open and not give hostages to fortune. Instead, Liz Truss comes up with something like two barmy proposals a day, and then U-turns on about half of them. We have to hope she'll U-turn on the other half.

    If this is how she's going to act as PM, we're in for a very stormy ride. It will be government by stream of consciousness, and it will be an unmitigated disaster.
    Er, will it? Certainly it'll look that way if you obsessively follow goings-on on an hourly basis, but... most people don't. 30 years ago, we wouldn't even have noticed all the U-turns because they'd have happened before the news cycle caught up. So, will it actually be chaotic, or will it merely appear to be so?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Anyway there is an opening to be a member of the Committee on Standards in Public Life.

    (I know, I know: what standards? I hear you cry.)

    The deadline was 3 August but has now been extended to the end of the month, presumably because no-one worthwhile applied on the grounds of "What's the point of this committee?".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    As a good Labour person I presume you were wearing the red jacket?

    Not many in the ground, were there?
    Certainly not many after 1:55 when the heavens opened!

    Still, a great half day out.
    Presumably you spent most of your time in the JP hospitality tent, revisiting old friendships?
    Ha, not really.

    Very middle class genteel protest it was though. Did it at lunch rather than when play was on, with a nice doctor lady handing out leaflets and being very reasonable and articulate and smiley.
    Lucky they didn't target you as a fat cat. Narrow escape I would say.
    City career plus lefty views is trying to have your cake and eat it in your eyes, isn't it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    If this is how she's going to act as PM, we're in for a very stormy ride. It will be government by stream of consciousness, and it will be an unmitigated disaster.

    It's going to be spectacular, if brief.

    And everybody, from all sides, will say "I told you so"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    algarkirk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    The FCA has been worse than useless recently anyway. They examine fundamentally the wrong things.
    That this is so doesn't make the merging of 3 regulators with very different functions and focuses, especially if done for the purpose of attacking bureaucrats rather than properly regulating the financial sector, the answer.
    On the whole it seems to me that the public want competence above all. And generally this is not done by merging and demerging and name changing but by deciding what you have to do and doing it well. (Answering letters and emails, being accessible, picking up the phone, not making mistakes, cost control, tackling hard questions instead of evasions, acting like public servants not public masters etc).

    In this sense government has, unwisely, done the opposite of institutions that work like eg Oxford University, which don't keep changing names or the public face of its structure.

    A good wine needs no bush as they say. And competence does not require constant name change and relaunches.

    I think (not sure) that SKS will care about competence more than the Tories at the moment. One big reason why currently I would vote for them.

    I so agree with this. A boring government concentrating on competence would be a refreshing change. And seems vanishingly unlikely these days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    edited August 18
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    If criminal charges are ever brought, this casts some doubt on his ability to testify in his own defence:

    Trump declines to answer questions in New York business investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/10/donald-trump-deposition-new-york-business-investigation
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,116
    Scott_xP said:

    If this is how she's going to act as PM, we're in for a very stormy ride. It will be government by stream of consciousness, and it will be an unmitigated disaster.

    It's going to be spectacular, if brief.

    And everybody, from all sides, will say "I told you so"
    They ought to, and would be entitled to. But the striking thing is how few people have said it about Boris, even though spectacular (tick), brief (three years is brief for a PM) predictable (tick) disaster (tick tick star smiley face) applies to him as well.
  • While initially not keen on the concept, I think the prolonged leadership election has been a good thing.

    By going the distance the prospective leaders have been challenged and during that spotlight Sunak has wilted and Truss has grown.

    Its funny because its often said that Theresa May's leadership contest being curtailed was a bad thing as May never got the valuable experience of challenging for the role, the hustings and winning the ultimate vote. Often by the same people who object to this contest now taking 'so long'. Similarly Gordon Brown being able to circumvent the members vote by blocking any challengers wasn't exactly a success either.

    Ultimately Parliament is shut now anyway for the summer holiday. The new PM is being announced on the very first day of Parliament's return, so the contest is losing no active Parliamentary time - but facing the fire of a leadership challenge and having to win a vote to be elected is ultimately a good thing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,692
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One well-placed financial services exec says that Truss is looking to merge Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Payments Systems Regulator into a new body as part of “a wider war on technocrats” and civil servants.

    https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151

    QED

    It might be spun any old way (war on waste, etc) but to merge regulators is far from the stupidest idea in the world.

    As of course and famously Peter Lilley in effect warned 25 years ago.
    I remember the Yes Minister quote about merging departments leading to efficiencies though - about how you just keep all the existing staff and add a new layer of coordinating staff on top.

    Certainly consistent with my own experience of public sector mergers. And public sector efficiency drives in total.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    While initially not keen on the concept, I think the prolonged leadership election has been a good thing.

    By going the distance the prospective leaders have been challenged and during that spotlight Sunak has wilted and Truss has grown.

    Its funny because its often said that Theresa May's leadership contest being curtailed was a bad thing as May never got the valuable experience of challenging for the role, the hustings and winning the ultimate vote. Often by the same people who object to this contest now taking 'so long'. Similarly Gordon Brown being able to circumvent the members vote by blocking any challengers wasn't exactly a success either.

    Ultimately Parliament is shut now anyway for the summer holiday. The new PM is being announced on the very first day of Parliament's return, so the contest is losing no active Parliamentary time - but facing the fire of a leadership challenge and having to win a vote to be elected is ultimately a good thing.

    On the other hand it's keeping PBers' money tied up for longer than necessary on the contest. We've had plenty of Hustings now too so Liz has picked up the experience May never got.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    They ought to, and would be entitled to. But the striking thing is how few people have said it about Boris, even though spectacular (tick), brief (three years is brief for a PM) predictable (tick) disaster (tick tick star smiley face) applies to him as well.

    You can't criticise BoZo without criticising Brexit, and nobody is allowed to do that. Yet.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    If criminal charges are ever brought, this casts some doubt on his ability to testify in his own defence:

    Trump declines to answer questions in New York business investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/10/donald-trump-deposition-new-york-business-investigation
    I think that if is probably a certainty rather than unlikely.

    Now the paperwork seems to have been found the case against Trump is very simple - he was presenting buildings at 1 valuation for mortgage purposes and a far lower one for tax purposes even though market prices had increased between the 2 valuations...

    All that is left is tying Donald personally to those valuations which is where Mr Weisselberg comes in...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    I still can't believe we've made ourselves almost 100% dependent on gas as a nation during the transition from all types of fossil to renewables. We should have kept our fossil options open whilst building renewables more quickly. Ultimately the climate emissions from that approach would probably have been a wash long term with the current

    Approach
    Fossil -> Gas -> Renewables
    Approach to value resiliency
    Fossil -> Fossil & Gas & Nuclear & More renewables -> Renewables & Nuclear.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Europe’s powers gave Ukraine no new military pledges in July, data shows
    https://www.politico.eu/article/data-show-europe-waning-military-support-ukraine/
    ...Western allies did meet last week in Cophenhagen to gather pledges for boosting Ukraine’s military, amassing €1.5 billion in commitments. But Trebesch, who said his team is still analyzing the numbers, cautioned the figure “is meager compared to what was raised in earlier conferences.”

    Trebesch argued that European countries should be considering the Ukraine war as more akin to the eurozone crisis or the coronavirus pandemic, two events that promoted the Continent to funnel hundreds of billions into emergency funding measures.

    “When you compare the speed at which the checkbook came out and the size of the money that was delivered, compared to what is on offer for Ukraine, it is tiny in comparison,” he said...


    I'd agree with that - an indefinitely prolonged struggle against the Russian invasion is bad for everyone in Europe. It needs defeating.

    The figures are slightly misleading (the UK has recently sent extra assistance, for example - and we're reportedly now running C17 flights between Pakistan and Romania to supply ammunition compatible with Ukraine's ex Russian kit), but the argument is not.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,227
    edited August 18
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Here you go, most recent annual figures I can find.

    China = 2.9 tonnes per capita.

    UK = 0.03 tonnes per capita.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    That's driven by a desire to reduce coal imports at a time when prices are high and supply less certain. There are increasing stockpiles of coal at Chinese power stations, and electricity generation from coal has declined slightly.

    So, not as bad as it looks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    Well, presumably the argument cares, because it singles out one country and compares it with another. World coal production 2021 is a google away.

    The environment also doesn't care for these purposes about the source of CO2 emissions so let's consider that the USA has twice the per capita output of China. Nationality is somewhat relevant because it is at the national level that decisions are made about limiting emissions vs not, but there is no justice in giving every Liechtenstein resident 10,000x the allowance per Chinese person.

    So, yes, it's very irksome of the Chinese, but point one, they are gonna do what they wanna do irregardless, and point two they have a slew of excellent defences available. They have 100s of millions living in poverty, the way out of that is to crack on with an Industrial revolution, and there is no duty to remain in poverty for the greater good of the rich West, which in any case is outpolluting them per capita despite having got its IR done and dusted. Plus it uses that coal to power factories to manufacture stuff for us (nothing to stop westerners resolving to buy nothing Chinese if they want to do something about it). Plus it leads the world on lots of renewables metrics.

    So a context free or partly contextualised vs UK history "look at all that horrid coal" needs qualifying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    If criminal charges are ever brought, this casts some doubt on his ability to testify in his own defence:

    Trump declines to answer questions in New York business investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/10/donald-trump-deposition-new-york-business-investigation
    I think that if is probably a certainty rather than unlikely.

    Now the paperwork seems to have been found the case against Trump is very simple - he was presenting buildings at 1 valuation for mortgage purposes and a far lower one for tax purposes even though market prices had increased between the 2 valuations...

    All that is left is tying Donald personally to those valuations which is where Mr Weisselberg comes in...
    Indeed.
    If his defence is likely to be "I was just doing what my financial advisers told me was correct", then why plead the fifth ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,095

    Scott_xP said:

    If this is how she's going to act as PM, we're in for a very stormy ride. It will be government by stream of consciousness, and it will be an unmitigated disaster.

    It's going to be spectacular, if brief.

    And everybody, from all sides, will say "I told you so"
    They ought to, and would be entitled to. But the striking thing is how few people have said it about Boris, even though spectacular (tick), brief (three years is brief for a PM) predictable (tick) disaster (tick tick star smiley face) applies to him as well.
    As with Boris there'll be an initial onslaught of 'See! Liz isn't as bad as all you doomsters were predicting. She will actually become a very fine prime minister, possibly even a great one.' This will happen. You have been warned.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    While initially not keen on the concept, I think the prolonged leadership election has been a good thing.

    By going the distance the prospective leaders have been challenged and during that spotlight Sunak has wilted and Truss has grown.

    Its funny because its often said that Theresa May's leadership contest being curtailed was a bad thing as May never got the valuable experience of challenging for the role, the hustings and winning the ultimate vote. Often by the same people who object to this contest now taking 'so long'. Similarly Gordon Brown being able to circumvent the members vote by blocking any challengers wasn't exactly a success either.

    Ultimately Parliament is shut now anyway for the summer holiday. The new PM is being announced on the very first day of Parliament's return, so the contest is losing no active Parliamentary time - but facing the fire of a leadership challenge and having to win a vote to be elected is ultimately a good thing.

    I am not sure Sunak has wilted; he is roughly the same as when he started; though Truss has grown. Impromptu surveys after debates and hustings generally say Rishi won but then the polls give it to Liz Truss. Fair enough but it suggests members are not responding to what is in front of them, assuming they bother to watch in the first place.

    And Truss developed so quickly after a dire start that I'd say it was due to intensive training rather than organic growth. Nothing wrong with that, and I have often recommended on here that politicians do undertake training, but the point is that could have happened without ten weeks of this leadership race.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is a very disturbing report in the Ukrainian press, which hopefully will result in action from the Ukraine authorities.

    Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
    https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct

    Completely predictable.

    And I think someone on pb.com (possibly @Dura_Ace ) predicted this would happen at the time when a call went out for volunteers for the International Legion.
    It wasn't me but I can't say I'm surprised. Chaos is inevitable when you chuck together a bunch of disparate strangers with no unit cohesion and various levels of ability. eg Man Utd.
    A visit to Brentford or thrown in to the horrors of the Kherson Kessel, it’s a toss up
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Exc: YouGov Tory members / Sky News

    55% wrong to force Johnson from office
    40% right to force Johnson from office

    If Members could vote for Johnson as an option they would pick:

    46% Johnson
    24% Truss
    23% Sunak
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
    I'd say Desantis is perhaps 30% and 60%, he looks very very likely (Which would be bad news for my book) to win if Trump is legally barred. But I don't think he beats Trump in a straight Nom fight.
    My book is built around shorting Trump (apart from "to run" where I'm long). I started doing that in Jan last year and have been drip drip adding to it since. I'm underwater atm - since my old lays were at big prices - but it is gradually emerging. Bottom line, if I'm wrong and he does win the P again I'm losing quite a lot, and if I'm right and he doesn't I'm winning quite a lot.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    If I were a climate activitist, I'd be playing on the Tory notion of self-reliance and security. If we were further along the path to renewables + nuclear, our bills wouldn't be going up so much and we could confront our adversaries better.

    Drop climate change - everyone knows, deep down, UK level action isn't going to do anything.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Amol Rajan to take over from Jeremy Paxman as University Challenge host https://bbc.in/3Cfs9wW
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 428
    Following the University Challenge announcement the comments on the Daily Telegraph story are openly explicitly racist. Extraordinary
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    Yes and no.

    What the UK does is fairly irrelevant except where we can engage in science and technology to invent clean alternatives which we then export to China (or more realistically they steal from us, copy and use themselves).

    So if you want to be helpful you can either protest outside the Chinese embassy, or get a STEM degree and work for a company or university that is researching or creating clean alternatives.

    Any noises the watermelon greens in this country make are about as useful and logical as a flagellation in the Medieval ages.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    I still can't believe we've made ourselves almost 100% dependent on gas as a nation during the transition from all types of fossil to renewables. We should have kept our fossil options open whilst building renewables more quickly. Ultimately the climate emissions from that approach would probably have been a wash long term with the current

    Approach
    Fossil -> Gas -> Renewables
    Approach to value resiliency
    Fossil -> Fossil & Gas & Nuclear & More renewables -> Renewables & Nuclear.
    Greenpeace has a lot to answer for on Nuclear.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg will plead guilty on Thursday to 15 felonies and has reportedly agreed to testify against the company regarding a 15-year tax fraud scheme.
    https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584

    Net closing in. I really do think you and me have called this right - he's not regaining the WH. There are about 25 reasons why and at least one of them will crystalize.
    I still think he's favourite, but Biden is catching now.

    I'd say he is 60% likely to win the GOP nomination; 60% likely to win the presidency if he gets the nom.
    I'd have Biden at 80% & 40%.
    My freestanding Trumps are -

    To run either for GOP or Ind - 75%
    To get the GOP nom - 25%
    To regain the WH - 10%

    Sort of thing.
    Is this based on how people vote or how the votes get certified by the officials and courts overseeing the election.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    If I were a climate activitist, I'd be playing on the Tory notion of self-reliance and security. If we were further along the path to renewables + nuclear, our bills wouldn't be going up so much and we could confront our adversaries better.

    Drop climate change - everyone knows, deep down, UK level action isn't going to do anything.
    You're right but this is like asking Christians to drop Christ, Tory members to drop Boris, the GOP to drop Trump or Muslims to drop Muhammed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,932
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    If I were a climate activitist, I'd be playing on the Tory notion of self-reliance and security. If we were further along the path to renewables + nuclear, our bills wouldn't be going up so much and we could confront our adversaries better.

    Drop climate change - everyone knows, deep down, UK level action isn't going to do anything.
    The issue IMO has been the refusal of the Government - probably successive governments - to promote and support a diversity of renewables. Whilst wind and solar are the backbone, we are working at capacity in our ability to install such schemes. We can and should put in much more of these but it all takes time. In addition they could have been investing in and promoting tidal, geothermal and other systems (as well as mini nukes) to run alongside wind and solar and we would be in a much better position than we are now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003
    Scott_xP said:

    They ought to, and would be entitled to. But the striking thing is how few people have said it about Boris, even though spectacular (tick), brief (three years is brief for a PM) predictable (tick) disaster (tick tick star smiley face) applies to him as well.

    You can't criticise BoZo without criticising Brexit, and nobody is allowed to do that. Yet.
    I can criticize Johnson while not criticizing Brexit which I support
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    I still can't believe we've made ourselves almost 100% dependent on gas as a nation during the transition from all types of fossil to renewables. We should have kept our fossil options open whilst building renewables more quickly. Ultimately the climate emissions from that approach would probably have been a wash long term with the current

    Approach
    Fossil -> Gas -> Renewables
    Approach to value resiliency
    Fossil -> Fossil & Gas & Nuclear & More renewables -> Renewables & Nuclear.
    Greenpeace has a lot to answer for on Nuclear.
    Still flabbergasting that we didn't break ground on anything nuclear between 1988 and 2018.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    More that at 20x UK population China is probably on par with UK coal consumption over the last century.

    Still too high obviously, but China's production and shift to renewable energy is also massive. More new off shore wind production than the RoW for example.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    Nigelb said:



    The figures are slightly misleading (the UK has recently sent extra assistance, for example - and we're reportedly now running C17 flights between Pakistan and Romania to supply ammunition compatible with Ukraine's ex Russian kit), but the argument is not.

    In the FAA we had .32 ACP of Pakistani provenance for use in our aircrew issue PPs. Some rounds failed to penetrate cardboard targets at 15m. Still, I expect it was cheap.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,095
    Scott_xP said:

    Exc: YouGov Tory members / Sky News

    55% wrong to force Johnson from office
    40% right to force Johnson from office

    If Members could vote for Johnson as an option they would pick:

    46% Johnson
    24% Truss
    23% Sunak

    That's quite extraordinary and suggests the members don't particularly rate either Truss or Sunak. Her lead in the polls just has to be because he knifed Boris and she didn't. There can be no other explanation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited August 18
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    More that at 20x UK population China is probably on par with UK coal consumption over the last century.

    Still too high obviously, but China's production and shift to renewable energy is also massive. More new off shore wind production than the RoW for example.
    See also their solar panel production - now obviously the CCP is far from perfect but on energy China has balanced the fight against climate change and the needs of its people.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    If I were a climate activitist, I'd be playing on the Tory notion of self-reliance and security. If we were further along the path to renewables + nuclear, our bills wouldn't be going up so much and we could confront our adversaries better.

    Drop climate change - everyone knows, deep down, UK level action isn't going to do anything.
    You're right but this is like asking Christians to drop Christ, Tory members to drop Boris, the GOP to drop Trump or Muslims to drop Muhammed.
    Or at least point out that the UK can become a world leader in wind and tidal, and export that stuff overseas?

    The fact that most of our turbines are being built by state-owned companies (but not ours) seems short-sighted. I don't know how the supply chain works.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Here you go, most recent annual figures I can find.

    China = 2.9 tonnes per capita.

    UK = 0.03 tonnes per capita.
    What are those numbers? They don't look very like for like to me.

    Peak uK coal production 1913 292m T https://ourworldindata.org/death-uk-coal
    UK pop 1913 46m https://nzhistory.govt.nz/war/united-kingdom-facts

    UK 6.64 T per caput

    china 2.86 T per caput

    (4.07bn T, 1.4bn pop.)

    It is fair to compare peak to peak, for all sorts of reasons set out above. So, less than half.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Scott_xP said:

    Amol Rajan to take over from Jeremy Paxman as University Challenge host https://bbc.in/3Cfs9wW

    That's a shame. It was the ideal job for Rishi Sunak.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,849
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    I still can't believe we've made ourselves almost 100% dependent on gas as a nation during the transition from all types of fossil to renewables. We should have kept our fossil options open whilst building renewables more quickly. Ultimately the climate emissions from that approach would probably have been a wash long term with the current

    Approach
    Fossil -> Gas -> Renewables
    Approach to value resiliency
    Fossil -> Fossil & Gas & Nuclear & More renewables -> Renewables & Nuclear.
    Greenpeace has a lot to answer for on Nuclear.
    Still flabbergasting that we didn't break ground on anything nuclear between 1988 and 2018.
    Nuclear is catastrophic is it goes wrong (there have been more than a handful of real life examples of course) - On the other hand why in god name was fracking stopped ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,032
    Pulpstar said:

    While initially not keen on the concept, I think the prolonged leadership election has been a good thing.

    By going the distance the prospective leaders have been challenged and during that spotlight Sunak has wilted and Truss has grown.

    Its funny because its often said that Theresa May's leadership contest being curtailed was a bad thing as May never got the valuable experience of challenging for the role, the hustings and winning the ultimate vote. Often by the same people who object to this contest now taking 'so long'. Similarly Gordon Brown being able to circumvent the members vote by blocking any challengers wasn't exactly a success either.

    Ultimately Parliament is shut now anyway for the summer holiday. The new PM is being announced on the very first day of Parliament's return, so the contest is losing no active Parliamentary time - but facing the fire of a leadership challenge and having to win a vote to be elected is ultimately a good thing.

    On the other hand it's keeping PBers' money tied up for longer than necessary on the contest. We've had plenty of Hustings now too so Liz has picked up the experience May never got.
    The experience she has gained has been of talking to a very small select group of voters who already vote for her party, many of whom already agree with her.

    Not of explaining her policies to the unpersuaded or of facing questions - let alone challenging ones - from them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    Well I wasn't actually part of the demo. But what's your point with this? I know China is producing more pollution than the UK. China produces more of most things than the UK - whopping big nation of over 1b people trying to catch up with western living standards that it is.
    The point is that the UK is an irrelevance when it comes to climate change.

    The decisive factor has been and will continue to be what China does.

    So any climate activists should be protesting outside the Chinese embassy not at a cricket ground.
    Not often you get an English/British booster admitting that the UK has f.all influence and is an irrelevance, but I treasure these fleeting moments.

    Soft power? No power more like.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not just Zoe Williams in the Guardian today - I am too!

    The big pic of the climate activists protest at Lords has me rather prominent. There I am quite close to the banner, looking not too shabby at all, all things considered.

    Prize for anybody who can spot me.

    And while you were having fun China dug another 10m tonnes of coal:

    China's coal output increased 7.2 percent year-on-year to an all-time high of 384.67 million tonnes in December 2021. For the full year of 2021, output touched 4.07 billion tonnes, up 4.7 percent on the previous year.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/coal-production#:~:text=Coal Production in China averaged,for China Raw Coal Production.

    To put that into perspective China's coal output during the last four years is greater than the UK's during the last hundred.
    And to put THAT into perspective would you like to give us the figures again, per capita? Because raw they are just meaningless, unless outnumbering upstanding true born Brits is a crime in itself.
    Does the environment care how many people are in a country? or does it just care how much carbon in the atmosphere there is?
    I still can't believe we've made ourselves almost 100% dependent on gas as a nation during the transition from all types of fossil to renewables. We should have kept our fossil options open whilst building renewables more quickly. Ultimately the climate emissions from that approach would probably have been a wash long term with the current

    Approach
    Fossil -> Gas -> Renewables
    Approach to value resiliency
    Fossil -> Fossil & Gas & Nuclear & More renewables -> Renewables & Nuclear.
    That's fossil fuel lobbying for you, which pushed the idea of gas as a "bridge" fuel between coal and renewables. Greens, of course, were widely derided for opposing it at the time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,932
    DearPB said:

    Following the University Challenge announcement the comments on the Daily Telegraph story are openly explicitly racist. Extraordinary

    Oo I missed that announcement. I hadn't thought of him during the discussions on here the other day but now he is mentioned I think he is a good choice. It needs someone a bit assertive (although Paxman was at times a bit OTT and sneary) and I think Rajan has the right persona for it. Clive Myrie has vastly improved Mastermind and although I don't think UC needs improving hopefully Rajan will have the necessary gravitas.

    Fuck the Telegraph readers.
This discussion has been closed.