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ConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead – politicalbetting.com
ConHome survey has Truss 32% ahead – politicalbetting.com
However you look at this Liz Truss is now a near certainty to become the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Yet we will still have to wait for 3 weeks before we get the official declaration and then, no doubt, the trip to the Palace.
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If not, then it seems hardly fair to demand that other parties change their procedure but not your own party
Having a say in electing the leader is one of the few rewards for the ordinary party member. Removing it would lead to a further decline in party membership for the larger parties. It'll be bad for democracy in the long-term and would strengthen extremist parties.
Truss is currently priced at 4.2 in the members' vote percentage market for the 65 to 69.99% band, so there is possible value in this bet.
Interestingly, in the 2019 contest, Johnson was on 65%, 74% & 61% in the last 3 polls from Opinium, Yougov & ComRes. The simple average of these 3 was 66.4% & was quite close to his actual vote of 66.4%.
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
14 Rishi Sunak 7%
Next Conservative leader
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1560021880182083584
I wonder if she'll be any good?
Plans by Liz Truss to cut tax are “hard to square” with economic reality because inflation will push up welfare and debt interest payments by tens of billions of pounds, according to a think tank.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said permanent tax cuts were not plausible when inflation was at record levels and set to exceed 13 per cent this year. It forecast that interest payments on the UK’s debt would reach £104 billion next year, twice what was expected in March.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economists-question-credibility-liz-truss-plan-cut-taxes-n6tzcdx7w (£££)
“The reality is that the UK has got poorer over the last year. That makes tax and spending decisions all the more difficult. It is hard to square the promises that both Ms Truss and Mr Sunak are making to cut taxes over the medium-term with the absence of any specific measures to cut public spending and a presumed desire to manage the nation’s finances responsibly.”
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/16154
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/17/gambia-tells-uk-grandmothers-seek-toy-boys-elsewhere/ (£££)
But he makes a good point about the inherent problem.
It would have taken considerably less time to hold a general election to choose a new PM. The current spectacle is a self indulgence on the part of the Conservatives that the rest of the country cannot afford.
(edit.. you also managed to mess up the block quotes in a single post.
Now repaired,)
And it’s also notable that the polling on the issue itself has shifted significantly in favour of abortion rights since the decision.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/08/voters-mad-roe-overturned-democrats-midterm-polls.html
… this has all happened despite President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings, which have, ticked up just a few points to about 40 percent approval. So, what explains the apparent shift? One highly plausible explanation for Democrats’ polling improvement can be found in the responses to additional questions included in a number of these latest polls: Democratic and Independent voters appear steamed over the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade and end constitutional protections for reproductive health care.
In the Wisconsin poll from Marquette Law School, for instance, 55 percent of voters said they were “very concerned” about abortion and 25 percent said they were “somewhat concerned.” In that same poll, 60 percent of voters opposed the Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right and overturn Roe, with a full 62 percent of Independents opposing it. The poll also showed that 65 percent of Wisconsin voters thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to just 58 percent in the same survey in June before Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was decided.
These trends are in line with other recent polls. In Tuesday’s favorable University of North Florida poll result for Demings, a full 51 percent of respondents said that Dobbs made them more likely to vote in November. This phenomenon was especially pronounced among Democrats, with 78 percent saying the decision made them more likely to vote in November…
I agree with the thread and the way this has been handled and with Johnson disappearing is absolutely terrible and shames the party and especially 1922 committee which just has to review and quicken future contests
The only consolation is it ends 2 weeks on monday when Tuss will become PM and we have a bank holiday weekend in between
The conservative party have gifted Labour a huge advantage and I will be very surprised if they are able to recover in the next two years, though I doubt the next government is going to have an easy time going forward whoever it is
Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse said options were being considered to help Brits deal with the cash pain.
He said: “We are putting the Government on war footing, if you like, so that a new prime minister in just a couple of weeks’ time is able to make some quick decisions on where he or she wants to take the country and the economy.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19542056/kit-malthouse-cost-of-living-crisis/
You can imagine how that went! Anyway, made it through (just). Nobody queueing at security, and the bars / restaurants with few customers as everyone was stood in an endless queue to drop bags.
Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct
https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct
The issue of paralysis and drift only really is a problem when the party leader is PM. Other parties, even the LOTO, can and probably should take plenty of time choosing the right person.
In fact, there's massive error in that band, possibly up to +/- 10%.
F1: Perez can be backed each way to win in Belgium at 26 (with boost) on Ladbrokes. Only Verstappen has more top 2 finishes this year. Not guaranteed at all (six horse race) but his odds are too long.
Decided to back Truss on the 65-70% and 70%+ markets.
I am on for similar money.
Truss is going to be next PM barring being struck by a meteorite. If Johnson is eaten by Nessie before then then Raab gets it.
And I think someone on pb.com (possibly @Dura_Ace ) predicted this would happen at the time when a call went out for volunteers for the International Legion.
Would she be any good? Hmmm, I don't believe Boris Johnson thinks she will. After ensuring she curtails the Privileges Committee's investigation into Johnson, and a chaotic few months of U- turns, I expect him to launch a challenge against her, win his coronation and call a General Election. A grateful nation will (and he is quite possibly correct) reward him with another landslide. Remember, the inflationary carnage and fuel poverty accelerated into warp speed 9.5 after his resignation.
If her flaws are similar to those of her predecessor, it will rebound upon them both and people will want a real change next time.
"I was shocked to discover the the depths of my predecessor's wrongdoing and how much he misled all of us, myself included. Having read the committee's report, it is clear that Mr Johnson cannot remain a Conservative MP.
But Unleashing Britain's Potential was never about one man, and the government's mission continues..."
The old dears who buy Conservative meat raffle tickets won't like it, but after September 5, who cares about them?
Would you put it past him to plan for a resurrection once the calls for him to go became so loud? And who better than La Truss to make him appear like the consumate professional Prime Minister?
Populism is a thing of the left and the right and she is clearly trying to tap into that on the left. Price caps, nationalisation, supporting the strikes. All of these things have public support.
https://twitter.com/ukunionvoice/status/1559935947462131715?t=vtQ2CX2phZAcU1QqnJ71SA&s=19
They are not. They can't be to have reached the position they have reached.
They are bright (very), driven, focused and politically and socially aware (OK 98% of them). They are playing the electorate and us like a violin and provoke exactly the reactions they want to provoke.
Remember how that turned out?
https://www.ft.com/content/af7b6638-c7f5-400b-878d-e56a58bd4151
The summer leadership campaign is also good for developing the winner's campaign skills. Of the last 2 general election majority winners for the Tories, Cameron and Boris, both were elected after campaigns to the membership as well as MPs.
On the Labour side too Starmer, Corbyn and Ed Miliband were all elected with members having a vote. The last Labour leader nominated and elected solely by MPs (unopposed) Gordon Brown, only got 29% at the next general election, Labour's lowest voteshare since 1983
If she struggles, and she will, he is in pole position to return as PM. And we will all think we are grateful and reward him with another five years.
It might be spun any old way (war on waste, etc) but to merge regulators is far from the stupidest idea in the world.
As of course and famously Peter Lilley in effect warned 25 years ago.
But the smart thing for Truss is to definitively get him out of the way. Because even if Volume 2 of Bozza's Brilliant Premiership is a mad pipe dream, it will be talked about and that will be bad for her.
Besides- cutting an exhalted rival off at the knees at their moment of maximum weakness? It's what Bozza would do to others. And if he has to go, maybe this is how he'd want it to happen. Nature's way.
"According to reports in Polish media, in Poland, Piotr Kapuscinski is known as “Broda” (Beard), an influential former member of the Pruszków gang, once the largest mafia in the country. He was the right-hand man of the group’s inner leadership, "Wanka" and "Malizna," and laundered money for them, according to Mariusz Kaminski..."
I presume said mafia don is either a) a huge fan of cockney gangster flicks or b) he's a 6 ft 8 brick hithouse of a man and nobody dares tell him what his name means in English.
Either way, a bit of levity in an otherwise shocking report (and bravo to the Kyiv Independent for publishing it).
I don't always agree with Zoe Williams but her piece today strikes a chord with me:
'“If there is a class war – and there is – it is important that it should be handled with subtlety and skill,” wrote Maurice Cowling, the influential rightwing historian, in the late 1970s. “It is not freedom that Conservatives want; what they want is the sort of freedom that will maintain existing inequalities or restore lost ones.” The nature of Conservatism has altered very little since, but the class on whose behalf the Tory party fights has changed dramatically: where once it was doctors and lawyers, businessmen, “respectable people”, it is now hedge fund managers and property developers, the filthy, the super, the Croesus rich. If you’re less wealthy than Jacob Rees-Mogg, the party has fought a 12-year war against you, and – newsflash – it won...
'...the class war wasn’t fought with subtlety and skill, it was fought in a more modern fashion, with misinformation. The argument for austerity was built on complementary, nonsensical narratives: most disabled people were faking it; most people on benefits were too lazy to work; most waste in the benefits system was lost to fraud; a class of the workshy had been created by benefits; the “big society” was good, because it was much nicer to get your neighbour’s help than to have properly funded public services; parents know more about education than local authorities; and so on...
'With Brexit, at least we were arguing about something real: what happened in relation to Europe mattered, for our prosperity, for our intellectual life, for our rights, for the union, for the climate... In fact, the escapade was there to deliver only one outcome: the destruction of regulation by which workers and citizens protect and assert themselves against the interests of capital. It was just the second wave of the war...
'...If you look at the level of public debt, the high inflation, the low growth and the tax burden, we’re already in a postwar economy. It was just a different kind of war, a class war masquerading as a kulturkampf, and we lost...'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/17/inflation-10-percent-class-war-brexit-cost-of-living-crisis
The nation is being exploited by the real cosmopolitan elite. They've completely divided and then conquered us. All of us will be, are being, negatively affected. I don't see how you can look at the state of the country and think anything else.
David Skelton: The New Snobbery
TL;DR - Labour has been at the forefront of the war against those in the lower socio-economic groupings.
What's more notable is that this is being reported on by a Ukrainian media organisation, which is a sign that we are supporting the right side.
Meanwhile, 13degC here - central heating back on!
Remember you only need to fool some of the people some of the time - and that 13 week holiday alongside 4 day weeks will stick with enough people to have an impact.
(Edited Vik's blockquote to "" instead as it was causing issues when quoting myself)
*blinks in surprise*
Besides- Truss should probably be grateful that the Star haven't photshopped her to look like a clown. Yet.
As you imply however, such behaviour is also widespread among the sections of society that people like Zoe Williams admires. There's no penalty for failure, dishonesty etc. in the highest reaches of the public sector, as well as in the highest reaches of the private sector.
And, quite a lot of the filthy rich are actually on Zoe Williams' side of the argument.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-18-august-2022-99fbe48cccb9
The comment today by a Zelensky adviser that the war has reached deadlock is broadly borne out by this - minor advances for either side here and there and some spectacular individual actions, but basically everyone digging in.
The Russian position around Kherson and the Ukrainian position in the centre still look fragile enough that this may change, but autumn and soggy ground will bog the war down by the end of September.
Wife currently in hospital for major surgery. Son just got A level results. Four A*. History, Economics and both Maths. Nice surprise for her to wake up to this afternoon.
Time for my annual "the government should consider letting boys take A-levels" joke.
Oliver Carroll
@olliecarroll
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1h
Ominous. Russia’s defence spox claims Ukraine is planning a “false flag provocation” in Zaporizhzhia (Enerhodar) power station for Aug 19. “Russia will be blamed for the man-made catastrophe,” he warns. In reality, Russia is using the plant as a nuclear shield.
For now, I've laid Verstappen at evens.
Reliability could be better, though.
I think the Ukranian forces are a very mixed bunch in terms of training and equipment, some very good and others poor. Overall motivation seems good, but as time and experience progress, I think they will become more consistent.
Soldiers complaining about their officers is of course nothing new or unique.
If they could render much of Ukraine a nuclear wasteland, they could take their (slightly irradiated) troops home and deem it job done.