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The leadership betting remains stable in spite of developments – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Omicron-specific covid booster vaccines may not be ready for autumn because cuts to regulator the MHRA has meant delays in approving them - 💉scoop by @HugoGye https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-vaccines-omicron-not-ready-autumn-boosters-nhs-winter-wave-1789089

    sclerotic...

    Please tell me the government did not cut the MHRA two years into a global pandemic.
    This clown show needs to be ended but sadly we have two more years of piss poor and ideology-driven administration.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Starmer could do worse than use 'Britain isn't working' as a slogan in GE 2024.

    Everybody seems to be saying everything is falling to bits and not working.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022
    Here's a desperate plan from an MP who can see her political career ending in 2 years time

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/20618405.bid-launched-reopen-bishop-auckland-e-shut-2009/?ref=ebln

    Hint - Bishop Auckland A&E was closed because the staff aren't available to run 3 A&E services in the area - and outside of Bishop itself it's as easy to get to Durham / Darlington as it is to get to Bishop....

    And that's before I cover the advantages centralised A&E services for training and other purposes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Not sure what the debate is. Gordon Brown is clearly right. If the energy companies are unwilling or unable to provide their services at a price millions can afford, they are going to have to be brought under public control until the crisis abates. It’s not a difficult one.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1557616619635068928

    Good morning

    This was discussed on 5 live business this morning and the view was that the complexity of taking control of the energy companies and the time required was such that it would not help in the present crisis
    Not if it were (eg) done by loans from government - which if subsequently defaulted on would allow for a change of control at a later date.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Omicron-specific covid booster vaccines may not be ready for autumn because cuts to regulator the MHRA has meant delays in approving them - 💉scoop by @HugoGye https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-vaccines-omicron-not-ready-autumn-boosters-nhs-winter-wave-1789089

    sclerotic...

    Please tell me the government did not cut the MHRA two years into a global pandemic.
    This clown show needs to be ended but sadly we have two more years of piss poor and ideology-driven administration.

    As I've posted above (below) this story is likely utter nonsense, and not linked to government. I'm working on a grant application on a very, very quiet Uni campus today. I know its quiet because I don't have to queue for a coffee. Its August. People take holidays. Like Starmer. And Johnson.

    We have boosters that are effective against omicron (latest data is striking showing those who had a spring booster with significantly higher nAB than those who didn't). The newer variant vaccines may be a bit better, but its unlikely they will be a game changer - they are unlikely to stop spread that much better than the previous versions.

    Plus most people (i.e. over 50%) have now had omicron which is why the prevalence is now falling like a stone, as despite alarmists trying to suggest otherwise, having omicron DOES generate anitbodies and protection against omicron.

    I share your frustration with the current government. It is time for a change, but the story above is bogus.
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Not sure what the debate is. Gordon Brown is clearly right. If the energy companies are unwilling or unable to provide their services at a price millions can afford, they are going to have to be brought under public control until the crisis abates. It’s not a difficult one.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1557616619635068928

    I agree with Gordon. It's time for the Government to act or people are going to go homeless and the companies are going to go bust anyway
    Potentially a situation is developing where literally millions of people are in heavy debt to utility companies. Will they cut off millions of people? How will they cope with having to write it all off?

    It is not just people who will struggle with their fuel bills. Companies will too. Think about a launderette, for instance. Now scale up to almost any firm that uses a lot of energy for its size.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    One for @Sandpit - This is a very sophisticated social hacking attempt, including a means of getting and using software based 2FA details

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/10/cloudflare_twilio_phishing/

    Thanks. Another one to add to the long list of why SMS-as-a-password is a stupid idea. Thankfully in this case, the attackers didn’t sufficiently understand the business process, and (as you’d expect at a company like Cloudflare) staff were well trained on spotting unusual activity. +1 for YubiKey by the way, token-based security is the way forward.
    It's not just SMS authentication - it's any code based 2FA such as Google / MS Authenticator...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Interesting thread (and the linked article is also interesting).
    Mentions that the Chinese military might have a similar corruption problem to that in Russia - note recent regime attempts to crack down on corruption.

    https://twitter.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1557487901377806336
    I wrote about the reasons China *doesn't* invade Taiwan. But there's a couple of minor reasons I didn't include for space reasons...

    I'm assuming that @Leon has read it, since his current obsessions are somewhat less doom encrusted than is usual.
  • Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.
  • Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    What they’ve got is the long-range HIMARS, known as ATACMS:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    What they’re planning to do with it, is to gently persuade the Russians to F off back to Russia.
    Yes but up to now, America has vetoed attacks on Russia itself, which from the Russian point of view will include Crimea. So the question remains.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    One for Sandpit - This is a very sophisticated social hacking attempt, including a means of getting and using software based 2FA details

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/10/cloudflare_twilio_phishing/

    Thanks. Another one to add to the long list of why SMS-as-a-password is a stupid idea. Thankfully in this case, the attackers didn’t sufficiently understand the business process, and (as you’d expect at a company like Cloudflare) staff were well trained on spotting unusual activity. +1 for YubiKey by the way, token-based security is the way forward.
    It's not just SMS authentication - it's any code based 2FA such as Google / MS Authenticator...
    Yes, good point. That attack might well have got past an RSA key fob, if the attackers were quick enough.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Omicron-specific covid booster vaccines may not be ready for autumn because cuts to regulator the MHRA has meant delays in approving them - 💉scoop by @HugoGye https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-vaccines-omicron-not-ready-autumn-boosters-nhs-winter-wave-1789089

    sclerotic...

    Please tell me the government did not cut the MHRA two years into a global pandemic.
    This clown show needs to be ended but sadly we have two more years of piss poor and ideology-driven administration.

    As I've posted above (below) this story is likely utter nonsense, and not linked to government. I'm working on a grant application on a very, very quiet Uni campus today. I know its quiet because I don't have to queue for a coffee. Its August. People take holidays. Like Starmer. And Johnson.

    We have boosters that are effective against omicron (latest data is striking showing those who had a spring booster with significantly higher nAB than those who didn't). The newer variant vaccines may be a bit better, but its unlikely they will be a game changer - they are unlikely to stop spread that much better than the previous versions.

    Plus most people (i.e. over 50%) have now had omicron which is why the prevalence is now falling like a stone, as despite alarmists trying to suggest otherwise, having omicron DOES generate anitbodies and protection against omicron.

    I share your frustration with the current government. It is time for a change, but the story above is bogus.
    There seems to be ongoing debate about both what and when in terms of boosters.

    Do you know anything about nasally administered vaccines in development (potentially a step up in terms of providing immunity, but also potential side effects not seen with other routes of administration) ?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    You really need to see Aslef's letter for the full entertainment

    https://twitter.com/ASLEFunion/status/1557380786730541056

    I particular like the line "it has been ASLEF's policy for decades to bring Sunday's into the working week".
  • Starmer could do worse than use 'Britain isn't working' as a slogan in GE 2024.

    Everybody seems to be saying everything is falling to bits and not working.

    This is why Truss will not win a majority IMHO. This feels very Labour 2010 to me
  • On companies

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    Not sure what the debate is. Gordon Brown is clearly right. If the energy companies are unwilling or unable to provide their services at a price millions can afford, they are going to have to be brought under public control until the crisis abates. It’s not a difficult one.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1557616619635068928

    I agree with Gordon. It's time for the Government to act or people are going to go homeless and the companies are going to go bust anyway
    Potentially a situation is developing where literally millions of people are in heavy debt to utility companies. Will they cut off millions of people? How will they cope with having to write it all off?

    It is not just people who will struggle with their fuel bills. Companies will too. Think about a launderette, for instance. Now scale up to almost any firm that uses a lot of energy for its size.
    Indeed; I think some of the more fanatical tory leadership electorate have no idea of the scale of the social and economic crisis that's about to hit without further action.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    One for Sandpit - This is a very sophisticated social hacking attempt, including a means of getting and using software based 2FA details

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/10/cloudflare_twilio_phishing/

    Thanks. Another one to add to the long list of why SMS-as-a-password is a stupid idea. Thankfully in this case, the attackers didn’t sufficiently understand the business process, and (as you’d expect at a company like Cloudflare) staff were well trained on spotting unusual activity. +1 for YubiKey by the way, token-based security is the way forward.
    It's not just SMS authentication - it's any code based 2FA such as Google / MS Authenticator...
    Yes, good point. That attack might well have got past an RSA key fob, if the attackers were quick enough.
    Oh it seems to have been designed to be used within seconds - an RSA key fob has a 3 minute window from the time the code is displayed - even the phone based Authenticators has a 90-120 second window

    Companies really do need to switch to hardware based tokens - Fido2 / YubiKey and device based Biometric solutions asap..
  • Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    It was Patch Tuesday this week. They need to install the updated drivers for the trains.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    Leon said:

    NETFLIX RECOMMENDATION

    For a dark, moody, sexy, witty, stirring period drama, try BECOMING ELIZABETH

    It's about the children of the recently dead Henry VIII - Edward, Mary, Elizabeth - and how they jostle for power and/or try to save themselves. It's really good, and smart

    ...it's mainly a variety of Tudors telling each other to fuck off.
    I cannot imagine how that would be right down Leon's street, at all?
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    One for Sandpit - This is a very sophisticated social hacking attempt, including a means of getting and using software based 2FA details

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/10/cloudflare_twilio_phishing/

    Thanks. Another one to add to the long list of why SMS-as-a-password is a stupid idea. Thankfully in this case, the attackers didn’t sufficiently understand the business process, and (as you’d expect at a company like Cloudflare) staff were well trained on spotting unusual activity. +1 for YubiKey by the way, token-based security is the way forward.
    It's not just SMS authentication - it's any code based 2FA such as Google / MS Authenticator...
    Yes, good point. That attack might well have got past an RSA key fob, if the attackers were quick enough.
    Oh it seems to have been designed to be used within seconds - an RSA key fob has a 3 minute window from the time the code is displayed - even the phone based Authenticators has a 90-120 second window

    Companies really do need to switch to hardware based tokens - Fido2 / YubiKey and device based Biometric solutions asap..
    I like what First Direct do, using the phone app as the authentication device protected by Face ID
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    'State building is a Tory tradition. It's time to rediscover it.'


    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1557636823274471426?s=20&t=imylsdoMwjHwrXXIiAB5NA
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Good true - but nope.

    Covid is partly an issue - the other one is a general unwillingness to recruit / invest in training of new drivers while the Government arsed round with franchises and timetables (which means no-one knows how many drivers they need).

    And remember that training costs are borne by the train companies - less training = more (short-term) profit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    You really need to see Aslef's letter for the full entertainment

    https://twitter.com/ASLEFunion/status/1557380786730541056

    I particular like the line "it has been ASLEF's policy for decades to bring Sunday's into the working week".
    That's a beautiful letter.

    Just one criticism. It's very possible Avanti have misinformed Shapps *and* he is lying.
  • eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    You really need to see Aslef's letter for the full entertainment

    https://twitter.com/ASLEFunion/status/1557380786730541056

    I particular like the line "it has been ASLEF's policy for decades to bring Sunday's into the working week".
    Yep. And they have got successful modern working practices with significant numbers of operators. Why should Sunday be any different? AIUI rest day working pays time and a half, Sunday working time and three quarters.

    Relying on working (safety critical) rest days to make your salary is bonkers - which is why the union wants to scrap it. So why doesn't Avanti want to do so? Because a modern working pattern means employing more drivers. Which Mr Shapps Green doesn't want to pay for...
  • State owned EDF is suing the French government for billions of euros for forcing them to sell electricity below market price

    Is Brown's plan not likely to lead to similar developments here?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
  • Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092
    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    This tweet might be a clue?

    If you are in occupied #Crimea, and you wish to drive east over a particular bridge, you had better do it *very* soon or you won't be doing it at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Even if Russia had been pushed out of Kherson, their expectation would be that they could make it uninhabitable - by launching destructive attacks from Crimea.

    Now, not so much. Ukraine will soon have the ability to make Sevastopol uninhabitable.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    Sorry but that's complete and utter bollox.

    My source for calling you out - the HR Manager for union negotiations at Avanti West Coast.

    Also Avanti's drivers are not yet on strike - because Avanti's pay negotiation timetable differs from other networks - so the call to hold a vote only becomes possible about now.

    Which creates an irony - Shapps and co claiming the drivers are striking is going to result in the drivers definitely striking.
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    edited August 2022

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    What they’ve got is the long-range HIMARS, known as ATACMS:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    What they’re planning to do with it, is to gently persuade the Russians to F off back to Russia.
    Yes but up to now, America has vetoed attacks on Russia itself, which from the Russian point of view will include Crimea. So the question remains.
    The US considers Crimea to be part of Ukraine & it's not included in the veto on attacks on Russia.
  • State owned EDF is suing the French government for billions of euros for forcing them to sell electricity below market price

    Is Brown's plan not likely to lead to similar developments here?

    Fuck em I say
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    This tweet might be a clue?

    If you are in occupied #Crimea, and you wish to drive east over a particular bridge, you had better do it *very* soon or you won't be doing it at all.
    Bad couple of days for the Russo-Crimea Tourist Board.
  • We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Indeed; I think some of the more fanatical tory leadership electorate have no idea of the scale of the social and economic crisis that's about to hit without further action.

    Exactly. Energy bills are going to put fast food outlets out of business.

    Remember when KFC ran out of chicken?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    State owned EDF is suing the French government for billions of euros for forcing them to sell electricity below market price

    Is Brown's plan not likely to lead to similar developments here?

    Fuck em I say
    To see power companies suing the French government is like watching a wasp landing on a stinging nettle.

    Somebody's going to get stung. Doesn't matter which, it will just be funny to watch.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Indeed; I think some of the more fanatical tory leadership electorate have no idea of the scale of the social and economic crisis that's about to hit without further action.

    Exactly. Energy bills are going to put fast food outlets out of business.

    Remember when KFC ran out of chicken?
    Either they do a Macron or there will be civil unrest on a wide scale.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Feels like a fresh dividing line between the @RishiSunak + @trussliz camps. Sunak told @bbcnickrobinson he wanted some kind of top up to the £400 help given to ALL households. Truss camp more targeted.

    But as I wrote here, that may be tacit admission her tax cuts aren't targeted https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1557643670211493889/photo/1
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Omicron-specific covid booster vaccines may not be ready for autumn because cuts to regulator the MHRA has meant delays in approving them - 💉scoop by @HugoGye https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-vaccines-omicron-not-ready-autumn-boosters-nhs-winter-wave-1789089

    sclerotic...

    Please tell me the government did not cut the MHRA two years into a global pandemic.
    This clown show needs to be ended but sadly we have two more years of piss poor and ideology-driven administration.

    As I've posted above (below) this story is likely utter nonsense, and not linked to government. I'm working on a grant application on a very, very quiet Uni campus today. I know its quiet because I don't have to queue for a coffee. Its August. People take holidays. Like Starmer. And Johnson.

    We have boosters that are effective against omicron (latest data is striking showing those who had a spring booster with significantly higher nAB than those who didn't). The newer variant vaccines may be a bit better, but its unlikely they will be a game changer - they are unlikely to stop spread that much better than the previous versions.

    Plus most people (i.e. over 50%) have now had omicron which is why the prevalence is now falling like a stone, as despite alarmists trying to suggest otherwise, having omicron DOES generate anitbodies and protection against omicron.

    I share your frustration with the current government. It is time for a change, but the story above is bogus.
    There seems to be ongoing debate about both what and when in terms of boosters.

    Do you know anything about nasally administered vaccines in development (potentially a step up in terms of providing immunity, but also potential side effects not seen with other routes of administration) ?
    No - I've not seen anything other than there are a lot of trials going on.

    I'm not convinced of the general need for boosters outside of the usual at risk categories. I think the shrill 'we're all going to get covid every 6 weeks' has died down a bit now. Its far to easy for people to take a post on twitter from someone who may have had two bouts of covid in a short time (but may not) to mean we are all going to have the same experience and that covid infection is a Russian Roulette for long covid, which is not likely. I saw an interesting pre-print yesterday looking at biological markers for long covid, and it showed a high correlation with reduced cortisol, something also suggested in ME/CFS. An interesting part of an emerging story.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530
    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    Sorry but that's complete and utter bollox.

    My source for calling you out - the HR Manager for union negotiations at Avanti West Coast.

    Also Avanti's drivers are not yet on strike - because Avanti's pay negotiation timetable differs from other networks - so the call to hold a vote only becomes possible about now.

    Which creates an irony - Shapps and co claiming the drivers are striking is going to result in the drivers definitely striking.
    May I have the quote, please?

    (And just in avoidance of any doubt: I'm not a fan of Shapps, in this role or any other.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    Sorry but that's complete and utter bollox.

    My source for calling you out - the HR Manager for union negotiations at Avanti West Coast.

    Also Avanti's drivers are not yet on strike - because Avanti's pay negotiation timetable differs from other networks - so the call to hold a vote only becomes possible about now.

    Which creates an irony - Shapps and co claiming the drivers are striking is going to result in the drivers definitely striking.
    May I have the quote, please?

    (And just in avoidance of any doubt: I'm not a fan of Shapps, in this role or any other.)
    I personally would be a big fan of Shapps as chairman of a leisure committee. In Wormwood Scrubs.
  • Here we are at capitalism for good vs cronyism

    Nobody sane thinks the energy companies should be allowed to make people homeless
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    If you require rest day working to run your timetable every week - you don't have enough staff..

    Yes overtime is required but it should only be there to cover unexpected high levels of illness or other temporary issues such as summer holiday cover..

    You cannot in the 21st century be running Sunday train services on the willingness of workers to do overtime.
  • ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    This tweet might be a clue?

    If you are in occupied #Crimea, and you wish to drive east over a particular bridge, you had better do it *very* soon or you won't be doing it at all.
    The Ukranians have had their eye on the Kerch bridge since February 24th. A huge amount of the enemy supplies to Ukraine go over it, by road and rail.

    It’s fair to say that there’s quite the civilian evacuation going on in Crimea today. The first Russians to get inadvertently caught up in the war.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    What they’ve got is the long-range HIMARS, known as ATACMS:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    What they’re planning to do with it, is to gently persuade the Russians to F off back to Russia.
    Yes but up to now, America has vetoed attacks on Russia itself, which from the Russian point of view will include Crimea. So the question remains.
    From the Russia POV that would also include much of occupied Donbas.
    The west does not recognise Russian claims over Crimea.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Even if Russia had been pushed out of Kherson, their expectation would be that they could make it uninhabitable - by launching destructive attacks from Crimea.

    Now, not so much. Ukraine will soon have the ability to make Sevastopol uninhabitable.
    Quite honestly, I'd expect Kherson to be more or less uninhabitable after the Russians have been pushed out anyway, at least until the post-war reconstruction.

    If we're being optimistic, though, the action in Crimea might suggest that the Ukrainian High Command (and their western advisors...) are now pretty convinced that the Russians have fully drawn down their operational strategic reserves, and are forcing the Russians to play a game of (increasingly) finite resource allocation.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,462

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    Bulb were not taking the consumer for a ride. They were competitively priced and had excellent customer services. I have two properties supplied by them. Because of the inept cap that put so many suppliers out of business I am now being subsidised by the taxpayer for my supply and the customer support is now crap. Neither of those things are good.
  • Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    You didn't read my original post. Rest day working was an old practice. BR and before. Since privatisation the franchises have the power to negotiate their own arrangements with the unions, and the unions want more contracted hours and less forced overtime.

    You say "drivers can't be trained up overnight" - Virgin West Coast had both enough drivers and the right balance between driver numbers and a bit of overtime when it got really busy. Avanti only took over the franchise a few years ago, decided to run down driver numbers and operate on more overtime for greater profit.

    On your "evidence" point, you referred to it yourself. It was used for decades. You either employ enough drivers to cover without forced overtime, or you rely on Drivers who refuse to work enough overtime means not enough to run the trains.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Omicron-specific covid booster vaccines may not be ready for autumn because cuts to regulator the MHRA has meant delays in approving them - 💉scoop by @HugoGye https://inews.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-vaccines-omicron-not-ready-autumn-boosters-nhs-winter-wave-1789089

    sclerotic...

    Please tell me the government did not cut the MHRA two years into a global pandemic.
    This clown show needs to be ended but sadly we have two more years of piss poor and ideology-driven administration.

    As I've posted above (below) this story is likely utter nonsense, and not linked to government. I'm working on a grant application on a very, very quiet Uni campus today. I know its quiet because I don't have to queue for a coffee. Its August. People take holidays. Like Starmer. And Johnson.

    We have boosters that are effective against omicron (latest data is striking showing those who had a spring booster with significantly higher nAB than those who didn't). The newer variant vaccines may be a bit better, but its unlikely they will be a game changer - they are unlikely to stop spread that much better than the previous versions.

    Plus most people (i.e. over 50%) have now had omicron which is why the prevalence is now falling like a stone, as despite alarmists trying to suggest otherwise, having omicron DOES generate anitbodies and protection against omicron.

    I share your frustration with the current government. It is time for a change, but the story above is bogus.
    There seems to be ongoing debate about both what and when in terms of boosters.

    Do you know anything about nasally administered vaccines in development (potentially a step up in terms of providing immunity, but also potential side effects not seen with other routes of administration) ?
    No - I've not seen anything other than there are a lot of trials going on.

    I'm not convinced of the general need for boosters outside of the usual at risk categories. I think the shrill 'we're all going to get covid every 6 weeks' has died down a bit now. Its far to easy for people to take a post on twitter from someone who may have had two bouts of covid in a short time (but may not) to mean we are all going to have the same experience and that covid infection is a Russian Roulette for long covid, which is not likely. I saw an interesting pre-print yesterday looking at biological markers for long covid, and it showed a high correlation with reduced cortisol, something also suggested in ME/CFS. An interesting part of an emerging story.
    Yes, I have no great insight to offer, but I got the impression that long Covid risk has more to do with the particular details of an individual's immune system than any particular set of Covid infections ?
  • eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    Sorry but that's complete and utter bollox.

    My source for calling you out - the HR Manager for union negotiations at Avanti West Coast.

    Also Avanti's drivers are not yet on strike - because Avanti's pay negotiation timetable differs from other networks - so the call to hold a vote only becomes possible about now.

    Which creates an irony - Shapps and co claiming the drivers are striking is going to result in the drivers definitely striking.
    May I have the quote, please?

    (And just in avoidance of any doubt: I'm not a fan of Shapps, in this role or any other.)
    I don't get your argument. You yourself referred to reliance on overtime. Either you understand what that means or you don't. You say that you do then display that you don't.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    You asked for a quote - before I copy it from the ASLEF letter I've already linked to can you provide evidence that any rail unions have stopped rest day working?

    The reality is it's the summer, the weather is great and people will want to use their rest days as days off - I know I would be doing so... Plenty of overtime will be available on wet days in November..
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    If you require rest day working to run your timetable every week - you don't have enough staff..

    Yes overtime is required but it should only be there to cover unexpected high levels of illness or other temporary issues such as summer holiday cover..

    You cannot in the 21st century be running Sunday train services on the willingness of workers to do overtime.
    Spot on. This is exactly what happened to South Eastern/Govia/Thameslink about 5 years ago - can't remember the lead company. Anyway, the company decided to cut driving staff to the bone to save money. They could run every service provided that all drivers were fit for work, in the right place, and willing to do overtime. The level of cancellations that followed was huge - I remember week after week being stuck at Victoria trying to get home to the south coast. Chaos. Entirely the company's penny-pinching fault. Sounds like the same on Avanti.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Indeed; I think some of the more fanatical tory leadership electorate have no idea of the scale of the social and economic crisis that's about to hit without further action.

    Exactly. Energy bills are going to put fast food outlets out of business.

    Remember when KFC ran out of chicken?
    Either they do a Macron or there will be civil unrest on a wide scale.
    "If you see Sid, tell him to re-nationalise".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Even if Russia had been pushed out of Kherson, their expectation would be that they could make it uninhabitable - by launching destructive attacks from Crimea.

    Now, not so much. Ukraine will soon have the ability to make Sevastopol uninhabitable.
    Quite honestly, I'd expect Kherson to be more or less uninhabitable after the Russians have been pushed out anyway, at least until the post-war reconstruction.

    If we're being optimistic, though, the action in Crimea might suggest that the Ukrainian High Command (and their western advisors...) are now pretty convinced that the Russians have fully drawn down their operational strategic reserves, and are forcing the Russians to play a game of (increasingly) finite resource allocation.
    The hope for Kherson, has to be that the enemy are now starved of supplies, and leave quietly while there’s still a bridge left to cross. Not sure they have enough ammunition to level the city like they did in Mariopol, thankfully.

    The enemy must be very stretched out now, Ukranian figures suggest they’ve lost more than 1800 tanks, of 3,300 total in Russia. It was claimed that nine aircraft were lost the other day, but that now looks from photos to be more than 20, for a total of 240 aircraft (of 1,300 or so, but we can only guess how many of them are actually serviceable). The long-range missile strikes are now very sporadic, suggesting that there are low stocks of these too.

    Soldiers will have been in theatre for months with no respite, and will be tired and demoralised. 40,000 of them won’t be going home. Give it another month and the weather will start to change, with more mud everywhere and winter fast approaching.

    Maybe I’m being optimistic, but let’s hope my optimism pays off. Keep the weapons coming, Western governments.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    https://amp.theguardian.com/stage/2022/aug/08/frankie-boyle-review-breathtakingly-rude-jokes-assembly-rooms-edinburgh-lap-of-shame

    This review of Frankie Boyle's Edinburgh show is worth reading for the Keir Starmer joke at the end.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    Changes in working and leisure travel patterns, sent into fast-forward by the pandemic, are going to require quite a lot of change to how public transport operates - especially in London.
  • eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    If you require rest day working to run your timetable every week - you don't have enough staff..

    Yes overtime is required but it should only be there to cover unexpected high levels of illness or other temporary issues such as summer holiday cover..

    You cannot in the 21st century be running Sunday train services on the willingness of workers to do overtime.
    Spot on. This is exactly what happened to South Eastern/Govia/Thameslink about 5 years ago - can't remember the lead company. Anyway, the company decided to cut driving staff to the bone to save money. They could run every service provided that all drivers were fit for work, in the right place, and willing to do overtime. The level of cancellations that followed was huge - I remember week after week being stuck at Victoria trying to get home to the south coast. Chaos. Entirely the company's penny-pinching fault. Sounds like the same on Avanti.
    What makes the Avanti story funny is the background as to how they won the franchise. Stagecoach/Virgin were barred from seeking a new franchise to replace the outgoing one, after proposing to cover the pension black hole.

    If you don't know about this, the UK government is in dispute with the Pensions Regulator over who bears the risk over long term pensions. The regulator thinks the risk lies with the owner - the UK government - who need to put the money in. The UK government says the risk is on the short-term franchisee.

    So, Virgin disbarred. First / Trenitalia win the franchise and are not only cheap, they are managing the pension deficit. How? By running down the driver pool and relationships inherited from Virgin and relying on forced overtime...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530
    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    You asked for a quote - before I copy it from the ASLEF letter I've already linked to can you provide evidence that any rail unions have stopped rest day working?

    The reality is it's the summer, the weather is great and people will want to use their rest days as days off - I know I would be doing so... Plenty of overtime will be available on wet days in November..
    If the cause of cancelled services is not rest day working, then why is everyone wittering on about rdw?
  • Hustings tonight, 7pm, Cheltenham.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    Only because Grant Shapps is once again insisting on madcap schemes to remove drivers before releasing more money..

    Even though it's been explained multiple times that doing that will cost £bns upfront...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    5 grand cap next year apparently :o
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    You didn't read my original post. Rest day working was an old practice. BR and before. Since privatisation the franchises have the power to negotiate their own arrangements with the unions, and the unions want more contracted hours and less forced overtime.

    You say "drivers can't be trained up overnight" - Virgin West Coast had both enough drivers and the right balance between driver numbers and a bit of overtime when it got really busy. Avanti only took over the franchise a few years ago, decided to run down driver numbers and operate on more overtime for greater profit.

    On your "evidence" point, you referred to it yourself. It was used for decades. You either employ enough drivers to cover without forced overtime, or you rely on Drivers who refuse to work enough overtime means not enough to run the trains.
    What makes you think I didn't read your original post?

    How is rdw 'forced' overtime?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    3 more MRLS, plus ammunition, from the UK announced today.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Feels like a fresh dividing line between the @RishiSunak + @trussliz camps. Sunak told @bbcnickrobinson he wanted some kind of top up to the £400 help given to ALL households. Truss camp more targeted.

    But as I wrote here, that may be tacit admission her tax cuts aren't targeted https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1557643670211493889/photo/1

    As far as I can tell, the planned tax cuts are anti-targeted, as in worse than untargeted. The higher your income, the more tax you pay, the more you will benefit.

    If Truss actually wanted to help (plus stick the knife into Rishi), do something about the freezing of thresholds, especially at basic rate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Hustings tonight, 7pm, Cheltenham.

    Yes, I am going
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited August 2022
    What the mighty loving titwank is this story about “sheep and circus clown”. It fucks my noodles
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited August 2022
    A 5000 price cap ? The current energy pricing and regulatory system, and likely our entire private energy model and structure, is heading for the rocks. Brown is very likely right.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,530
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    Only because Grant Shapps is once again insisting on madcap schemes to remove drivers before releasing more money..

    Even though it's been explained multiple times that doing that will cost £bns upfront...
    TfL's finances have been poor for long before the Covid crisis, for a variety of reasons.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54652907
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    edited August 2022
    I note that the Ukrainians interviewed for the Amnesty report were in filtration camps in the occupied Donbas.

    This shitshow is a huge shame, as reputable NGOs advocating for human rights are important. The organisation needs to take a good look at itself.
    Instead, they are still defending the report,
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    3 more MRLS, plus ammunition, from the UK announced today.

    The more the merrier! Game-changing weapon, as the war moves from defence to offence.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited August 2022
    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Even if Russia had been pushed out of Kherson, their expectation would be that they could make it uninhabitable - by launching destructive attacks from Crimea.

    Now, not so much. Ukraine will soon have the ability to make Sevastopol uninhabitable.
    Quite honestly, I'd expect Kherson to be more or less uninhabitable after the Russians have been pushed out anyway, at least until the post-war reconstruction.

    If we're being optimistic, though, the action in Crimea might suggest that the Ukrainian High Command (and their western advisors...) are now pretty convinced that the Russians have fully drawn down their operational strategic reserves, and are forcing the Russians to play a game of (increasingly) finite resource allocation.
    One of the most surprising aspects of the war to me was that it didn't start with a two-week air and missile campaign by Russia to degrade Ukrainian air defenses and to gain air superiority. Trying to conduct a combined arms offensive without air superiority is likely to be challenging.

    So I see the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean airbase as a natural progression from attacking Russian logistics and air defence assets. They are preparing the ground for an offensive by reducing Russia's means to contest it. There have been earlier attacks on other airbases, such as at Melitopol.

    This also follows the strategy the Ukrainians employed to force the Russians off Snake Island. The destruction of the Moskva reduced Russia's air defence over the Western Black Sea, and enabled Ukrainian drone and air attacks on Snake Island that made continued occupation untenable.

    I see no reason not to expect a continued campaign against Russian air defence and air force assets in the South to prepare the way for the Southern Offensive. We'll know this phase of the campaign has completed when we start to see more strikes from Ukrainian drones and jets against Russian defensive positions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    The Russian reaction to an EU-wide tourism ban - “OMG you can’t do that, you cruel fiends” - shows that the EU - and UK and US etc - really SHOULD do that

    It will be intensely effective. Middle class Russians love to travel. Especially to rich western cities and warm sunny beaches

    If they can’t, it will be really bad for Putin. So: do it
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    edited August 2022

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    True. Though give it a few weeks and everyone, except for companies who extract gas and make electricity, will be broke.
  • Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    You didn't read my original post. Rest day working was an old practice. BR and before. Since privatisation the franchises have the power to negotiate their own arrangements with the unions, and the unions want more contracted hours and less forced overtime.

    You say "drivers can't be trained up overnight" - Virgin West Coast had both enough drivers and the right balance between driver numbers and a bit of overtime when it got really busy. Avanti only took over the franchise a few years ago, decided to run down driver numbers and operate on more overtime for greater profit.

    On your "evidence" point, you referred to it yourself. It was used for decades. You either employ enough drivers to cover without forced overtime, or you rely on Drivers who refuse to work enough overtime means not enough to run the trains.
    What makes you think I didn't read your original post?

    How is rdw 'forced' overtime?
    Because the franchise does not employ enough drivers to fulfil its contractual service obligations. Either the drivers volunteer to work rest days, or services are cancelled.

    Again, the previous franchisee prior to December 19 DID empliy enough drivers. The Avanti business model is less staff working more overtime. And the staff won't. So they can't provide their services.

    Shapps should be penalising them for breaking their contract. But instead is siding with the employer and blaming the union for being "on strike" when they are not.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Just sows the idea the Red Wall are lost to the Tories for another generation
    What's that to do with my question?

    From what I can tell, and tell me if this is wrong: for decades, railways have used rest-day working (within the very strict rest period rules). Some unions have now stopped this, and suddenly come companies do not have enough drivers.

    Blaming that on the companies for not having enough drivers seems a little odd, given rest day working was, AIUI, standard.
    You asked for a quote - before I copy it from the ASLEF letter I've already linked to can you provide evidence that any rail unions have stopped rest day working?

    The reality is it's the summer, the weather is great and people will want to use their rest days as days off - I know I would be doing so... Plenty of overtime will be available on wet days in November..
    If the cause of cancelled services is not rest day working, then why is everyone wittering on about rdw?
    1) We live in a free society - if people don't want to work on rest days they shouldn't and can't be required to. It's the summer and it's hot so it's not surprising that people aren't rushing to work overtime...

    2) You claim that it is the unions who have instructed workers not to work on rest days. But while I have asked you to provide a link that confirms your allegation you haven't provided it.

    The reality is that if you have 1,000 drivers it's very easy to find 50 drivers willing to work overtime. If however you have 500 drivers it's very likely you will only find 25 drivers willing to work overtime and probably less if it's holiday season and people can do overtime on a week day instead.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    5000 price cap ? The current energy pricing and regulatory system, and likely our entire private energy model, is heading for the rocks. Brown is very likely right.

    The Government needs to get a grip NOW.

    Set a maximum cap of £2,000pa for domestic users. Come up with a similar pro rata arrangement for business.

    Yes it will be expensive but the associated benefit of slashing inflation will mean that the cost of uprating pensions and benefits for inflation will be massively reduced to offset this.

    We need this, not NI cuts.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Morning all! Has there been any reportage on this story:
    https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1557280056711446528

    In essence Avanti West Coast have taken an axe to services because they do not have sufficient drivers. Back when Virgin ran the operation they had good relations with the unions and found the happy medium between numbers of permanent staff and number of rest days they need staff to volunteer for to meet their obligations.

    Avanti have let the headcount slip, the balance doesn't work, and now there aren't enough drivers. The company - and the government - are blaming the unions and "industrial relations". But there is no strike - they simply do not have enough bodies to provide their contractual service obligation.

    As unions are the current bogeyman the Tories are attacking drivers. For not striking. When so many other franchises have no such problems as they have sufficient staff.

    Why don't they have enough drivers? Is part of it because of union action?
    Drivers cost money. Cheaper to have fewer drivers and pay overtime. Remember that *the union* wants more drivers employed on contracts that don't mandate overtime. We have not just evidence of this from loads of other franchises, we have in writing from them.

    So why are you saying the opposite?
    I'm not saying the opposite. Of course the union want more people employed - that's what unions almost always want. That doesn't mean that it's the best, or cheapest, way of providing those services.

    rest-day working has been used for decades. Drivers cannot be trained up overnight, and it is unreasonable to expect them to be so. Unless there is evidence that the companies could not provide the services adequately without this action, then any delays and reduced services are down to the union, not the company.

    Unions are not generally interested in efficiency or the public. As an example, railway unions kept secondman working on until ?1994? for 'safety' reasons. It was insane.
    You didn't read my original post. Rest day working was an old practice. BR and before. Since privatisation the franchises have the power to negotiate their own arrangements with the unions, and the unions want more contracted hours and less forced overtime.

    You say "drivers can't be trained up overnight" - Virgin West Coast had both enough drivers and the right balance between driver numbers and a bit of overtime when it got really busy. Avanti only took over the franchise a few years ago, decided to run down driver numbers and operate on more overtime for greater profit.

    On your "evidence" point, you referred to it yourself. It was used for decades. You either employ enough drivers to cover without forced overtime, or you rely on Drivers who refuse to work enough overtime means not enough to run the trains.
    What makes you think I didn't read your original post?

    How is rdw 'forced' overtime?
    Because the franchise does not employ enough drivers to fulfil its contractual service obligations. Either the drivers volunteer to work rest days, or services are cancelled.

    Again, the previous franchisee prior to December 19 DID empliy enough drivers. The Avanti business model is less staff working more overtime. And the staff won't. So they can't provide their services.

    Shapps should be penalising them for breaking their contract. But instead is siding with the employer and blaming the union for being "on strike" when they are not.
    I will add Avanti's drivers are the best paid on the rail network (WCML rarely had strikes when Virgin were in control because it was always cheaper to just to pay the drivers what they wanted).

    I don't imagine many people already earning £50,000 (with a great pension on top) are rushing to work more overtime
  • ydoethur said:

    Well, I've voted for Rishi.

    Done my bit for your 250-1 shot. Sadly, going to be a losing bet because ...God knows why. Truss is an order of magnitude poorer on every metric.

    We don't need God's help here. Unfortunately your party has an inbuilt majority who hear only what they want to hear, not what they need to hear. And they want to hear what Truss is telling them, regardless of the fact it bears no resemblance to reality.
    It's interesting that AFAIK none of the self-declared PB Tory members on here except Barty (is he even a member?) are voting for Truss.

    Much as I deeply disagree with PB Tories on most topics I totally respect that they represent the small and ever-diminishing 'sane wing' of the Tory party.
    Not a member, no. Have been in the past, voted for Cameron, but felt I couldn't be a member after the NI tax hike. Reversing that is a key point of principle for me.

    The lack of balance in how actual Tory members voting here is a bit of a shame, that we get a distorted view in discussions. A bit like how interesting it is that the same certain people seem to be getting asked to engage in opinion polls almost every week it seems.
    That is because Yougov runs a panel of opinion poll respondents. Once you are on the panel, it has more job security than Boris's ethics adviser, although no more power. There is a suspicion that CCHQ attempted to load the panel back in the 2000s.

    This is one reason the polls missed the Brexit result where a lot of new voters emerged from nowhere. I am also mildly sceptical that their panel of Conservative Party members is fully representative after the party increased by half in 2018/19. There might, imo, be a pro-Truss house effect, although there is little doubt she is in the lead.
    If the disproportionately represented by people like TSE then wouldn't there be more likely an anti-Truss house effect?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2022

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    Only because Grant Shapps is once again insisting on madcap schemes to remove drivers before releasing more money..

    Even though it's been explained multiple times that doing that will cost £bns upfront...
    TfL's finances have been poor for long before the Covid crisis, for a variety of reasons.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-54652907
    I'm ignoring the historic stuff and was focussed on https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/tfl-could-face-sharp-cuts-to-services-as-funding-negotiations-drag-on-56642/

    But Bozo, Kahn and the Elizabeth Line delays really didn't help.

    PS where is the evidence that Railway unions have told workers not to work on rest days?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Jesus ******* Christ we have been over this time and again.

    It is *fewer* bodies.

    FFS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    3 more MRLS, plus ammunition, from the UK announced today.

    The more the merrier! Game-changing weapon, as the war moves from defence to offence.
    Just a reminder that's it's about a quarter of a century old, and the Russians apparently have no way of stopping it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915

    ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    True. Though give it a few weeks and everyone, except for companies who extract gas and make electricity, will be broke.
    It is amazing what you can do to people in this country and they just take it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Scott_xP said:

    Feels like a fresh dividing line between the @RishiSunak + @trussliz camps. Sunak told @bbcnickrobinson he wanted some kind of top up to the £400 help given to ALL households. Truss camp more targeted.

    But as I wrote here, that may be tacit admission her tax cuts aren't targeted https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1557643670211493889/photo/1

    As far as I can tell, the planned tax cuts are anti-targeted, as in worse than untargeted. The higher your income, the more tax you pay, the more you will benefit.

    If Truss actually wanted to help (plus stick the knife into Rishi), do something about the freezing of thresholds, especially at basic rate.
    The cancelling of the changes to National Insurance will benefit the high earners, people like me will benefit and I really do no need to benefit from changes to the tax regime.

    It is so tone deaf in the current environment and Labour will make hay with this.

    "The poor starve and freeze while PM Truss gives tax cuts to the wealthy and cuts corporation tax for the big businesses that bankroll the party."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited August 2022
    Talking of finite resource allocation issues, the expected price rises now add up to an additional cost for the country for its energy needs of £100bn a year.

    It's an absolutely colossal sum of money, more than half of the peak public sector deficit following the Financial Crash.

    What Labour have failed to do is to pin the blame on the government for this monumental failure of energy policy. After the Financial Crash Osborne and Cameron were very successful in pinning the blame for the deficit, and the austerity that followed, on to Brown and Labour. They didn't let the argument that it, "started in America," go unchallenged.

    Labour's response to the crisis has been to criticise the government's immediate response, but this means they've implicitly accepted the government's argument that the crisis, "started in the Kremlin," and so they are failing to reap the political benefits.

    The political challenge for Labour is to drive home the message that the energy crisis is due to the failure of the Tories to invest in renewable energy, that they have been too slow to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel imports, and that is why we are experiencing a large loss in national wealth and are all poorer. Instead Labour are pretending that the loss of £100bn a year can be wished away.

    If Labour don't win the next election, this will be why.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    Yesterday on R4 some guy called Mathew Delves was pronouncing athlete as ath e lete in the same way the football "intelligensia";)) are saying Wemb e ley instead if Wembley
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Shell will be looking to sell their stake in the Cambo oil and gas field which should see the development of the field speeded up.

    No doubt the eco cranks will be up in arms about it but the transition to net zero and renewables means we need oil and gas for the foreseeable future. Better to develop our own where possible.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/shell-launches-sale-of-north-sea-cambo-oil-prospect-sources/ar-AA10xUJD?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2b21e89080bc4706b909d2a2bc4a71f3
  • ydoethur said:

    We're nationalising Bulb essentially, let's do the same with other companies taking the consumer for a ride.

    What about those companies failing to take us for a ride, like Avanti?
    Trains should be in public hands. They serve no good, let's stop paying the French Government and run our trains ourselves.

    TfL manage it.
    And TfL are, to all intent-and-purposes, broke.
    True. Though give it a few weeks and everyone, except for companies who extract gas and make electricity, will be broke.
    It is amazing what you can do to people in this country and they just take it.
    It's still a bit abstract and hypothetical. Energy bills are up, and that's bad, but the realisation that they are about to double again hasn't really entered our conciousness, any more than Thing 2 is aware that it's about three weeks until she is back at school. We certainly don't have a feel for what that will be like to experience.

    A bit like the worst monets of Covidtide- a doubling of badness is going to happen, there's approximately nothing we can do to stop it, because of the lag between actions and consequences. All we can do is prepare to mitigate the consequences, and hope.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    3 more MRLS, plus ammunition, from the UK announced today.

    The more the merrier! Game-changing weapon, as the war moves from defence to offence.
    Just a reminder that's it's about a quarter of a century old, and the Russians apparently have no way of stopping it.
    It's an example of where lack of air superiority is really hurting them. If they had air superiority they would be able to send jets out to hunt for the launchers and take them out. But they don't. So they can't.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    I note that the Ukrainians interviewed for the Amnesty report were in filtration camps in the occupied Donbas.

    This shitshow is a huge shame, as reputable NGOs advocating for human rights are important. The organisation needs to take a good look at itself.
    Instead, they are still defending the report,

    What on Earth were they thinking? NGOs are indeed vital in the war, we need them to be impartial and not spout one sides’s propoganda.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/10/nicola-sturgeon-says-liz-truss-asked-her-how-to-get-into-vogue?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Nicola Sturgeon says Liz Truss asked her ‘how to get into Vogue’

    Scottish first minister said Truss ‘looked a little bit as if she’d swallowed a wasp’ when she told her she had been in Vogue twice

    “I remember it because there we were at the world’s biggest climate change conference in Glasgow, world leaders about to arrive. That was the main topic of conversation she was interested in pursuing. And once we’d exhausted that it kind of dried up.” — Sturgeon
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Animal_pb said:

    Animal_pb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ukrainian propaganda video, featuring Bananarama:

    https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557621932429819907

    Hmmm.

    Am I the only person now wondering what's changed in the last few days that Zelensky is suddenly talking about liberating Crimea having in the past indicated it might be possible to accept at least de facto Russian sovereignty?

    And then there are a series of explosions which the Ukrainians officially deny responsibility for?

    Plus this openly threatening video?

    What have they now got that they didn't have before, and what are they planning to do with it?
    Strategic initiative, at a guess. Plus, if the Ukrainians are looking to re-take Kherson imminently, they probably want the Russians to be worried about more than just the defence of that city - if the Russians need to tie up extra reserves garrisoning the Crimea, that's less bodies to throw at what is likely to be a real meatgrinder of a battle.
    Even if Russia had been pushed out of Kherson, their expectation would be that they could make it uninhabitable - by launching destructive attacks from Crimea.

    Now, not so much. Ukraine will soon have the ability to make Sevastopol uninhabitable.
    Quite honestly, I'd expect Kherson to be more or less uninhabitable after the Russians have been pushed out anyway, at least until the post-war reconstruction.

    If we're being optimistic, though, the action in Crimea might suggest that the Ukrainian High Command (and their western advisors...) are now pretty convinced that the Russians have fully drawn down their operational strategic reserves, and are forcing the Russians to play a game of (increasingly) finite resource allocation.
    One of the most surprising aspects of the war to me was that it didn't start with a two-week air and missile campaign by Russia to degrade Ukrainian air defenses and to gain air superiority. Trying to conduct a combined arms offensive without air superiority is likely to be challenging.

    So I see the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean airbase as a natural progression from attacking Russian logistics and air defence assets. They are preparing the ground for an offensive by reducing Russia's means to contest it. There have been earlier attacks on other airbases, such as at Melitopol.

    This also follows the strategy the Ukrainians employed to force the Russians off Snake Island. The destruction of the Moskva reduced Russia's air defence over the Western Black Sea, and enabled Ukrainian drone and air attacks on Snake Island that made continued occupation untenable.

    I see no reason not to expect a continued campaign against Russian air defence and air force assets in the South to prepare the way for the Southern Offensive. We'll know this phase of the campaign has completed when we start to see more strikes from Ukrainian drones and jets against Russian defensive positions.
    Any action is going to have to start soon before Winter steps in which both locks both sides into defensive positions and also increases Russia's leverage on the energy front. So I would expect things to kick off seriously within the next 7-10 days on the Kherson front combined with continued strikes on the Crimea / Melitopol / Mariupol areas to tie the Russians up, and partisan activity massively ramped up.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915

    Talking of finite resource allocation issues, the expected price rises now add up to an additional cost for the country for its energy needs of £100bn a year.

    It's an absolutely colossal sum of money, more than half of the peak public sector deficit following the Financial Crash.

    What Labour have failed to do is to pin the blame on the government for this monumental failure of energy policy. After the Financial Crash Osborne and Cameron were very successful in pinning the blame for the deficit, and the austerity that followed, on to Brown and Labour. They didn't let the argument that it, "started in America," go unchallenged.

    Labour's response to the crisis has been to criticise the government's immediate response, but this means they've implicitly accepted the government's argument that the crisis, "started in the Kremlin," and so they are failing to reap the political benefits.

    The political challenge for Labour is to drive home the message that the energy crisis is due to the failure of the Tories to invest in renewable energy, that they have been too slow to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel imports, and that is why we are experiencing a large loss in national wealth and are all poorer. Instead Labour are pretending that the loss of £100bn a year can be wished away.

    If Labour don't win the next election, this will be why.

    The global financial crisis was only marginally Labour's fault and the global energy crisis is only marginally the Tories' fault. In both cases the blame on local politicians lies chiefly in leaving us more exposed, but it is a matter of degree rather than absolutes, and that's a complex message to communicate if you want to do it honestly. Of course the Tories had no scruples about communicating a far less complex and fundamentally dishonest message back in 2010. Maybe Labour should do that too, but I think lying just comes less naturally to them. I suppose that's a good thing, but I am fed up with losing elections.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    I note that the Ukrainians interviewed for the Amnesty report were in filtration camps in the occupied Donbas.

    This shitshow is a huge shame, as reputable NGOs advocating for human rights are important. The organisation needs to take a good look at itself.
    Instead, they are still defending the report,

    What on Earth were they thinking? NGOs are indeed vital in the war, we need them to be impartial and not spout one sides’s propoganda.
    We need them to be objective, not impartial.

    You can't be impartial between Russia and Ukraine, any more than you can be impartial between Hitler and Churchill.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,842
    eek said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/10/nicola-sturgeon-says-liz-truss-asked-her-how-to-get-into-vogue?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Nicola Sturgeon says Liz Truss asked her ‘how to get into Vogue’

    Scottish first minister said Truss ‘looked a little bit as if she’d swallowed a wasp’ when she told her she had been in Vogue twice

    “I remember it because there we were at the world’s biggest climate change conference in Glasgow, world leaders about to arrive. That was the main topic of conversation she was interested in pursuing. And once we’d exhausted that it kind of dried up.” — Sturgeon

    'Did i mention, I've been in Vogue twice? They really dig my look. Oh, my climate change conference? Its the worlds biggest you know, if anything its too big and amazing'
    And Lizzy the twit laps it up like a schoolgirl whos mates reckon she could be a model easily.

    Anyway, enough girl talk, here comes the PM of The Comoros, Joe Biden and a many headed EU Hydra
This discussion has been closed.