politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond
Comments
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Yes, it was a good night for Labour and the union, there is no doubt. Labour would be a severely diminished party without Scotland, not just because it would lose 41 MPs but also an intellectual and social powerhouse of Labour policy.IOS said:Max
So we go back to a normal bit of politicking. I can't even begin to describe what a disaster the Labour party would have been like if this had gone the other way.
As I said before the future is less certain for Labour in England, as EV4EL is a simple one line policy that will play well in England and Ed is proposing some convoluted constitutional something or other and reneging on the Vow in Scotland.0 -
I think the SLAB / Lab relationship is entirely disfunctional and almost as messed up as SLAB is itself. The resources obviously helped but the insight didnt seem much better than that offered in 2011.IOS said:
So here's a question for you. Imagine if it had been only SLAB and not the rest of the Labour party fighting this battle. Would it have been a yes? I think maybe.0 -
It seems that some people who are ignorant of the vote count procedure have claimed the referendum vote was mis-counted and/or rigged.
They have seen video of the verification process when YES and NO votes are still mixed and claimed that YES votes were put on with a NO pile when there was no No and YES separation at that stage.
An example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing?
Within 8 hours 50,000 people have been persuaded the vote was rigged. A lesson for us all to check things out before jumping to conclusions.0 -
Well that's not going to cut it. He really is a political plonker.TheWatcher said:
Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.
House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.0 -
Nice statement from Liz0
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DavidL mentioned last night that Labours UK operation was very impressive and it was the activists and party members from south of the border that swung it as SLAB were pretty useless. He even said that it really only started to change when UK Labour got involved, plus they had to teach a new generation of activists how to win an election. No doubt that that UK Labour made the difference.IOS said:Neil
Well it would have been civil war. People like myself would have been booting SLAB out the door. Some of SLAB would be trying to stay and other in the would be rUK Labour party would be attacking me for facing reality.
So here's a question for you. Imagine if it had been only SLAB and not the rest of the Labour party fighting this battle. Would it have been a yes? I think maybe.0 -
Neil
The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.0 -
Nicholas Witchell Just had a 'Have I got News for You Moment' Just walked off camera with a statement from the Queen he was due to read out live on air0
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That sounds interesting. I shall have to go and investigate Iplayer. Thanks.Morris_Dancer said:
...
Incidentally, there was a programme on about 8pm on BBC4 (first of three) called A Tale of Three Cities, or similar, about Byzantium/Constantinople/Istanbul.
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They would do it adhoc like Croatia, plus the rest of the world (bar the EU) would recognise catalonia (Morocco and Russia certainly would).
You don't understand that Spain is a western version of Yugoslavia, even down to it's economic performance, only force holds it together for now.
I lived in Catalonia for five years. I understand it pretty well. Spain and France, to an extent, are absolutely pivotal to Catalonian independence. Morocco is neither here nor there.
Morocco has for many centuries exported its products through those trade routes into Western Europe so there is a substantial Moroccan population in Catalonia.I was in Holland when Wilders made his racist remarks about Moroccans,who are a major part of Dutch life,and his poll ratings plummeted.
http://www.thelocal.es/20140917/catalonia-to-win-over-moroccan-voters-with-arabic0 -
@Neil tooSouthamObserver said:
Was she a politician? I thought she was a council employee.isam said:
Reading that you wouldn't have any idea which party she was from would you.dr_spyn said:Sick leave for Joyce Thacker on Monday, great day to step aside.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29286638
Sorry I thought she was a councillor, my mistake
This is interesting from almost two years ago
"What right-minded person could argue with those comments … whether their home town is Rotherham or any other town or city whose Social and Children’s Services is controlled by a loony left Labour stooge.
AND how long will it be before Joyce Thacker resigns even though she’ll say ‘I’ve done nothing wrong’ and then disappear into the distance after trousering a few hundred thousand pounds in cash. All at the expense of the tax payer, of course."
http://www.maxfarquar.com/2012/11/joyce-thacker-rotherham-social-services/
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We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
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Yet, the whole of Scotland has just voted on the same subject - a "foreign" set of MPs bringing unwanted influence to bear on their lives.Danny565 said:'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
And UKIP won an election in May, on the same grounds.
"Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
"Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"
I think the English might just grasp it.0 -
SeanT Ironically the referendum result has strengthened the UK, for the first time the Union has a clear mandate from Scots on a vast turnout0
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Max
SLAB members who live in England but moved back north were alright. But the jist of what you say is right. Labour through the entire of everything it had at this.0 -
Again, as I say, the perception that Scotland gets a better deal (esp in terms of prescriptions and tuition fees) IS something that's out there, but how to the average person will blocking Scottish MPs voting help to address that? It would probably be easier to sell to those people an English Parliament (even though I wouldn't want it) on the basis of "we can get the stuff Scotland gets", or to abolish the Scottish Parliament altogether to stop them getting their "unfair" advantages. But I can't see how messing about with parliament voting rights would seem to be either here or there to most people. Not saying people would be AGAINST it as such, they just won't care enough or follow it enough to "punish" any party who opposes it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 565, all that needs be done is to tell people Scottish MPs can vote on English only matters, the Conservatives want English votes on English laws and Miliband wants to stop that and allow the present situation to continue.
Not overly complicated.0 -
how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.IOS said:Neil
The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.
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Maybe, Isam.isam said:
Wasn't it ignoring the don't knows that caused the polls to be wrong? You can't really just ignore them, that's like allocating them 50/50....I think Dan a Hodges was on the money with thisPeter_the_Punter said:Hat-tip for political punters, from the New York Times, no less.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/20/upshot/scotlands-no-vote-a-loss-for-pollsters-and-a-win-for-betting-markets.html?contentCollection=world&action=click&module=NextInCollection®ion=Footer&pgtype=article&abt=0002&abg=0
Maybe Shy-nos played a part too. One cannot know because if one did they wouldn't be Shy.
I came fairly close to getting it right in the PB prediction comp by taking the poll prediction and adding a few for DKs and SNs. I wouldn't have wanted to risk serious money on such an approach.
I made a few cautious quid and was happy enough with that.
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At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!rottenborough said:
Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.MattW said:"We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.
That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...
https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties
We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...0 -
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.0 -
That's about as relevant as the fact that 'yes' lost the Western Isles. I dont think it necessarily has direct implications for party political elections.Alanbrooke said:You lost Glasgow.
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The policy has 60% support among English voters according to Comres. It is a one line policy that will play well onbthw doorstep.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.0 -
It was pretty good. Worth watching.HurstLlama said:
That sounds interesting. I shall have to go and investigate Iplayer. Thanks.Morris_Dancer said:
...
Incidentally, there was a programme on about 8pm on BBC4 (first of three) called A Tale of Three Cities, or similar, about Byzantium/Constantinople/Istanbul.
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For reasons, I cannot explain, I see repeats of it whenever my remote finds it channel hopping. Also Total Recall ! Very poorly acted by that very poor actor !Plato said:At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!
rottenborough said:
Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.MattW said:"We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.
That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...
https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties
We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...0 -
They certainly grasp those two things -- but won't grasp how blocking Scottish MPs from voting would address that. How would "EV4EL" have stopped Scotland getting free tuition fees/prescriptions, or enabled England to get them?chestnut said:
"Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
"Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"
I think the English might just grasp it.0 -
Np, Mr. Llama. Incidentally, did you see Lost Kingdoms of Central America? 8pm BBC4 on.... Monday (the Three Cities thing was a different day, now I come to think of it). It was about the Olmecs, and was quite interesting.
Edited extra bit: the Three Cities thing was/is on Sundays.0 -
Quite, Miss P., it is a warmed-over version of Labour's position from the late 1990s. It didn't work then and it won't work now. The difference being that now England is paying attention and there is now a Party, albeit quite small, that is going to be nipping away at this issue like a terrier at a rat hole and of course the PM has put it centre stage. Blair could get away with burying it as a minor constitutional anomaly, Miliband will not be able to repeat that trick (save for the tribalists).Plato said:Well that's not going to cut it. He really is a political plonker.
TheWatcher said:Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.
House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.0 -
Did anyone mention the new software and the superb GOTV operation ?Alanbrooke said:
how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.IOS said:Neil
The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.0 -
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.
Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.
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Apols if already posted: Populus Lab 36+1, Con 32-2, UKIP 15+2, LD =9, Others 8=.0
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we'll see at the vote Neil, but the Nats have been successful at getting out voters who normally wouldn't vote and that alone alters all the FPTP electoral calculations. In the Indyref Labour managed to stop the march of the Nats but they haven't pushed them back to the start line. The SNP still has tanks parked on Labour's lawn in Dundee and Glasgow inter alia.Neil said:
That's about as relevant as the fact that 'yes' lost the Western Isles. I dont think it necessarily has direct implications for party political elections.Alanbrooke said:You lost Glasgow.
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Not never, though usually not. The thing is, you often can't tell which issue does capture the public's imagination.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
Anyhow, it's still better to be right on an issue, even if the public aren't that bothered, than to be wrong. The campaigning question is about priorities.0 -
There may be a chance for us regionalists to get a word in.Regional Parliaments would replace much of Whitehall and would replace the county councils,allowing the day to day functioning of local government where it was pre the 1974 occupation of Ted Heath,to the cities and towns and the parishes where it should be,at its closest point to the people.
If the South West had a similar system I can guarantee the fiasco of the floods in the Somerset levels would never have happened.0 -
I always used to see Some Like It Hot and a Jim Carey film about penguins.
Capricorn One and Total Recall are two favourites of mine. I like your remote's taste ;^ )surbiton said:
For reasons, I cannot explain, I see repeats of it whenever my remote finds it channel hopping. Also Total Recall ! Very poorly acted by that very poor actor !Plato said:At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!
rottenborough said:
Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.MattW said:"We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.
That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...
https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties
We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...0 -
As usual a PBTory looking for the silver bullet ! The 2017 referendum was that. Excpet it fired up UKIP instead.chestnut said:
Yet, the whole of Scotland has just voted on the same subject - a "foreign" set of MPs bringing unwanted influence to bear on their lives.Danny565 said:'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
And UKIP won an election in May, on the same grounds.
"Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
"Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"
I think the English might just grasp it.0 -
Mike is right.
The only bullet about is the one the Union had dodged. Tories always love to think they have a game changer. These mini highs make the lows so much lower.
Wait until the Tories lose Clacton.0 -
Wrong. Salmond had his brilliant success when he got the YouGov lead two weeks ago and the subsequent Brownite Vow from the party leaders.
He may not have broken the Union but he has brought about its remaking - a greater achievement.0 -
Davidson is an impressive and distinctively Scottish Tory, and not afraid of a scrap. More power to her elbow!SeanT said:Ruth Davidson is very good. I think she'll do well in Holyrood at the next election. Especially as the SNP - minus the Messiah - turns introspective, and goes left under Sturgeon.
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But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.SeanT said:
Calm down. Get some sleep.MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.
Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.
It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.0 -
well the SNP have been putting money in to their operations.surbiton said:
Did anyone mention the new software and the superb GOTV operation ?Alanbrooke said:
how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.IOS said:Neil
The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.0 -
Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.IOS said:Winning the AV / FPTP
Winning the Independence debate
Labours done well on the referendums.
Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.0 -
British elections are rarely about magic bullets. Its more a drip-drip effect for months or years before the GE about the overall direction and narrative. I'm not convinced Labour have the narrative at all sorted. However, as I just said, and Mike has said many times, this will be an odd election.david_herdson said:
Not never, though usually not. The thing is, you often can't tell which issue does capture the public's imagination.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
Anyhow, it's still better to be right on an issue, even if the public aren't that bothered, than to be wrong. The campaigning question is about priorities.
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We'll have to see what other polls say, but there was a YouGov at the weekend which had only about 25% agreeing (another 25% wanted either an English Parliament or regional assemblies, another 25% said they were fine with the status quo, and the other 25% said don't know).MaxPB said:
The policy has 60% support among English voters according to Comres. It is a one line policy that will play well onbthw doorstep.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dx68iw22ce/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-1400912-main.pdf0 -
Mr. D., I never watch television. Haven't done for many years, since my boy was about four or five when we used to watch Insektors together on a Saturday morning (surely the funniest animated series in modern times, the British scripts were especially hilarious). So I am reliant on friends for telling me of things on the catch up interweb channels that I might like.Morris_Dancer said:Np, Mr. Llama. Incidentally, did you see Lost Kingdoms of Central America? 8pm BBC4 on.... Monday (the Three Cities thing was a different day, now I come to think of it). It was about the Olmecs, and was quite interesting.
Edited extra bit: the Three Cities thing was/is on Sundays.
Your advice is gratefully received and will be put to use the next time I have ironing to do.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.
Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.
Any swingback would have to be from Labour back to Lib Dem from whom they have taken a large chunk of supporters.
However the pollsters show Lib Dem switchers to Labour are more loyal to Labour than long term Labour supporters.0 -
Which is why they were stupid to oppose AV. But there you go...surbiton said:
Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.IOS said:Winning the AV / FPTP
Winning the Independence debate
Labours done well on the referendums.
Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.0 -
I'd say so. But if a week is a long time, then eight months is an eternity...SeanT said:
Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.rottenborough said:
But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.SeanT said:
Calm down. Get some sleep.MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.
Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.
It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.
We are surely looking at another hung parliament?0 -
People will grasp that it seems unfair.Danny565 said:They certainly grasp those two things -- but won't grasp how blocking Scottish MPs from voting would address that.
It doesn't matter if they grasp the detail - most voters never do. It's about planting a perception that enough people take as reality.
"The NHS in Scotland is going to be privatised, because of Westminster".
"There will be millions of Romanians and Bulgarians free to come here"
"We'll spend X amount on XXXX paid for banker's bonus taxes"
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Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.SeanT said:
Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.rottenborough said:
But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.SeanT said:
Calm down. Get some sleep.MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.
Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.
It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.
We are surely looking at another hung parliament?0 -
OGH/MS Cameron has seen off Davis, Brown and Salmond, all more impressive figures than Miliband in many respects, Miliband should have no fears!0
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TheWatcher said:
LOL. But then again, Brown was nowhere near as bad a politician or orator as everyone seems to now remember. Indeed, he was a towering figure in 1990s Labour.SeanT said:
Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.rottenborough said:
Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.SeanT said:
But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.MikeSmithson said:
Calm down. Get some sleep.Slackbladder said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.MikeSmithson said:
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.
Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.
It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.
We are surely looking at another hung parliament?0 -
Or from Labour over to other parties (with a particularly big threat of the Lib Dem-defectors-to-Labour going to the Greens).David_Evershed said:MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.
Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.
Any swingback would have to be from Labour back to Lib Dem from whom they have taken a large chunk of supporters.
However the pollsters show Lib Dem switchers to Labour are more loyal to Labour than long term Labour supporters.0 -
Off-topic:
The real reason for Bedfordshire's Deputy PCC's resignation in July comes out: she tried to influence the judge in a murder case.
Oops.
http://www.heart.co.uk/fourcounties/news/local/bedfordshire-deputy-pcc-resignation/0 -
The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum
By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.
September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...
1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.
2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...
3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...0 -
Anyway enough of this banter. I'm off to the boozer to celebrate the saving of the Union. Night all.0
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Those sources dont seem to be too accurate, Tap! New conspiracy needed!Tapestry said:The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum
By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.
September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...
1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.
2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...
3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...
0 -
It is quite possible that they would have lost seats via becoming second preference to the kippers amongst their own, while kippers put other parties in second spot.rottenborough said:
Which is why they were stupid to oppose AV. But there you go...surbiton said:
Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.IOS said:Winning the AV / FPTP
Winning the Independence debate
Labours done well on the referendums.
Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.
The AV poll killed voting reform for the forseable. Best bet is STV in council seats next time round.0 -
"As usual all the Westminster parties are looking for the best way to engineer the situation to their advantage rather than work together to create something that is durable and everyone can support."SouthamObserver said:
Of course it's partisan. As usual all the Westminster parties are looking for the best way to engineer the situation to their advantage rather than work together to create something that is durable and everyone can support. It's exactly this kind of thing that put the Union in peril and which alienates swathes of voters across the UK.
Labour is going to get burned on this and the Tories will end up entrenching anti-Tory feeling. A proper constitutional settlement is what we need so that the issue can be put to bed. But our leaders are not grown-up enough for that, so instead we will get bickering, petty point scoring and years of tampering depending on who is in power. It's a complete joke.
Chortle.
This very morning I was suggesting Miliband, Cameron and Clegg work together to sort something out, whilst you were favouring the Labour stitch-up.
Chortle.0 -
I have been awake for the last 36 hours,and followed the referendum,and the post mortem on PB and other sites. Thanks to all the posters for their informed comments.
Personally I think we got the best result possible and the union has been saved,but I cannot begin to imagine the grief some of the "yessers",now feel,I even feel a bit sorry for Malcolm,he was genuine,but totally refused to accept any other view than his was possible,or even worth debating.
I hope we all get together and put this behind us,but reading comments on other sites,I suspect not.
I will probably go back to major lurking now until next May.0 -
Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!Tapestry said:The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum
By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.
September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...
1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.
2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...
3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...0 -
Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count
0 -
Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.Tapestry said:0 -
Mr. Llama, I don't tend to watch too much. Mostly it's been sci-fi repeats on Pick, although I was glad to catch The Walking Dead on 5* (it should be on a more prominent channel).
BBC4 can have good stuff on it.0 -
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Ed certainly did not make much of an impression in Scotland - the last time I saw Ed, he was running for cover from a baying mob – They may or may not have been Labour supporters, I’m not sure.TheWatcher said:
Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.SeanT said:
Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.rottenborough said:
But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.SeanT said:
Calm down. Get some sleep.MikeSmithson said:
There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.Slackbladder said:
Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.MikeSmithson said:
We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.john_zims said:@Danny565
'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'
Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.
Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.
Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.
It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.
We are surely looking at another hung parliament?0 -
Police keeping YES/NO supporters apart in face-off at George Square, Glasgow. Reports of scuffles and rising tension...0
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Someones calling for an enquiry...and Ed's not leaping on it? Theres a first for everything..MattW said:Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count
0 -
Although yes, I do agree that Ed going down in Scotland about as well as a "flatulent dog in a lift" (trademark Jeremy Paxman) is yet another worrying sign. All the reasons for why Labour should win make sense on paper, but it's still hard to see how people are going to vote for someone they see as such a joke to be PM.0
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It's Friday night in Glasgow......RodCrosby said:Police keeping YES/NO supporters apart in face-off at George Square, Glasgow. Reports of scuffles and rising tension...
0 -
@MkeSmithson
'We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.'
Did I say it was a magic bullet or that it will solve all their electoral problems?
Good luck if you feel this issue will not resonate with the electorate and will continue to be tolerated.0 -
Mr. Dee, surely you won't be able to resist the discussion about English devolution?0
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Swinney rules himself out as leader of SNP...0
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SeanT Cameron will get a boost in the polls from saving the Union and his statement today, Scots clearly endorsed his pro Union view and the English will welcome his promise to answer the W Lothian question, Miliband is despised by most Scots and has just promised to oppose any settlement to give England a greater voice, even the Greens are starting to rise and could eat into his left as UKIP have eaten into Cameron's base and Miliband's working class support. Cameron to lead another Coalition in my view0
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This is a good day for the Union, if not as good a day as yesterday. I say this because Salmond is devious, deceptive and a truly brilliant liar, capable of persuading even himself that black is white if the circumstances require it. In short he is an exceptionally able politician.
Sturgeon is another kettle of fish (sorry, impossible to resist). She is feisty, diligent and fierce but has few of the other skills Salmond has. The SNP will be less dangerous with her at the helm.
I also think that Salmond's achievement or lack of it should be put into some sort of context.
He held his referendum at a time there was tory led government with 1 MP in Scotland.
When that government was obliged to restrict spending and promise more cuts to come.
When North Sea oil is still a significant factor.
When Labour is led by a north London intellectual who is at least as alien to most Scots as Cameron (who is, in fact, the more popular of the two).
When he controlled the machinery of the Scottish government and had no compunction about abusing it with nonsense like the White Paper.
When he had not yet been found out in respect of a number of major goodies such as the unsustainable "free" tuition fees and free prescriptions for a Scottish health service that is now teetering on the edge of crisis having overspent to cover the cracks until the referendum took place.
It was, in fact, a perfect storm for Unionism and yet he lost. Quite badly actually. There was undoubtedly some skill in manipulating some of the pieces of that storm into place but it will be very difficult to have better circumstances in which to make a bid for independence.
People continue to underestimate Cameron. I really hope that continues.0 -
Great post. Agree, 100%.DavidL said:This is a good day for the Union, if not as good a day as yesterday. I say this because Salmond is devious, deceptive and a truly brilliant liar, capable of persuading even himself that black is white if the circumstances require it. In short he is an exceptionally able politician.
Sturgeon is another kettle of fish (sorry, impossible to resist). She is feisty, diligent and fierce but has few of the other skills Salmond has. The SNP will be less dangerous with her at the helm.
I also think that Salmond's achievement or lack of it should be put into some sort of context.
He held his referendum at a time there was tory led government with 1 MP in Scotland.
When that government was obliged to restrict spending and promise more cuts to come.
When North Sea oil is still a significant factor.
When Labour is led by a north London intellectual who is at least as alien to most Scots as Cameron (who is, in fact, the more popular of the two).
When he controlled the machinery of the Scottish government and had no compunction about abusing it with nonsense like the White Paper.
When he had not yet been found out in respect of a number of major goodies such as the unsustainable "free" tuition fees and free prescriptions for a Scottish health service that is now teetering on the edge of crisis having overspent to cover the cracks until the referendum took place.
It was, in fact, a perfect storm for Unionism and yet he lost. Quite badly actually. There was undoubtedly some skill in manipulating some of the pieces of that storm into place but it will be very difficult to have better circumstances in which to make a bid for independence.
People continue to underestimate Cameron. I really hope that continues.
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You might have added that the pictures prove the beheadings were false, Watcher. Or are you here to distort information and keep everyone asleep? Thought so.TheWatcher said:
Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.Tapestry said:
0 -
Nick Palmer, totally OT but you recently asked about parking tickets issued by private firms like ParkingEye. I got one cancelled today by following the advice on Martin Lewis's website: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=4816822NickPalmer said:Apols if already posted: Populus Lab 36+1, Con 32-2, UKIP 15+2, LD =9, Others 8=.
I used the legal letter template from that site and sent it ParkingEye. This was after threating letters etc. Got email today saying they'd cancelled it. Naturally, I am now a fan of Lewis's site.0 -
People seem reluctant (or unable) to spell out the implications. Surely it has to be English votes for English issues and that in turn means an English 1st minister or prime minister.
I doubt there is appetite for the UK prime minister being a separate person from the English prime minister and therefore the English 1st minister must also be prime minister of the United Kingdom. (Because most issues will be at the country not UK level.)
In other words the prime minister of UK will need to be the leader of the party that wins England (and Wales) even if that party does not have a majority in the UK as a whole.
The Scots may not like this but it is a consequence of England being so much larger. Otherwise separation.
0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!Tapestry said:The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum
By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.
September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...
1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.
2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...
3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...
Oh dear! so the new Royal baby was just a spoof?
0 -
DavidL Don't forget Cameron is half Scottish, Miliband has no Scottish blood at all, indeed, despite being an MP for Doncaster, he looks and sounds like the north London intellectual he is0
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Last night is also a reminder that polls can be out by quite a bit.
24 hours before polling day, all 3 polls issued said No was ahead by 4%. No actually won by 11%.
This is something to keep in mind when looking at GE polls.
There are at least some similarities between the Con / Lab choice and the No / Yes choice - Con (like No) is the status quo, dour, low risk option; Lab (like Yes) is the full of hope, idealistic but higher risk option.
The referendum result shows there can be a substantial swing from the higher risk to the lower risk option at the very last minute.
Not saying this will happen, but it's the sort of thing that could happen.0 -
Mr. Neil, are you trying to tempt us into making 'Ed Miliband being crap' type answers?0
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Greetings all.
As di Lampedusa wrote in The Leopard: "Everything needs to change, so everything can stay the same").
Constitutional issues are of very little interest to most voters and I doubt that the WLQ will be the magic bullet the Tories imagine. Plus it risks looking as if the political class is simply thinking about itself rather than about the voters.
And the very last thing we need are more layers of government and more politicians.
Unless Cameron can make a clear connection between the issue and how it affects voters, I doubt it will make much traction, certainly not enough to change votes next May. Cameron could hammer the "unfairness" argument of course but that leaves him open to attacks on other front.0 -
Oh go on then you charmer.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dee, surely you won't be able to resist the discussion about English devolution?
Actually thought about you last week after a superb Goodwood revival,and Jackie there recounting his experiences,some fantastic racing,and a shocking crash on the first race,these pre 1950 racing cars seem too valuable to race,one turned over in front of me,no roll bar,no seat belts,the public rushed over the barriers to upright the car,fortunately he seemed OK. Rowan Atkinson later looked a bit naffed off.
0 -
Miss Cyclefree, what fronts would it leave Cameron open on? He wants it settled quickly, DevoMax for Scotland and a fair deal for the English.0
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It's probably best for OGH, if the weird and fanciful theories are confined to your own website.Tapestry said:
You might have added that the pictures prove the beheadings were false, Watcher. Or are you here to distort information and keep everyone asleep? Thought so.TheWatcher said:
Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.Tapestry said:0 -
I had Bob Latchford paint my front wall today.The son of the Everton legend played for Bristol Rovers and suffered a career ending injury.I feel priviliged and will give his firm a good report.Wonderful centre-forward.0
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The baby is a conspiracy between two unionist monarchists, and months in the planningEastwinger said:foxinsoxuk said:
Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!Tapestry said:The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum
By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.
September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...
1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.
2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...
3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...
Oh dear! so the new Royal baby was just a spoof?
;-)0 -
Douglas Carswell and EdM have similar privileged backgrounds, similar nerdy looks and similar wonkish tendencies.Danny565 said:Although yes, I do agree that Ed going down in Scotland about as well as a "flatulent dog in a lift" (trademark Jeremy Paxman) is yet another worrying sign. All the reasons for why Labour should win make sense on paper, but it's still hard to see how people are going to vote for someone they see as such a joke to be PM.
Yet Carswell has 'gone native' in his very wwc constituency and appears to be well liked by his constituents.
Whereas EdM can't connect with people outside his social class, doesn't seem interested in trying to connect and doesn't even seem interested in appearing to try to connect with people different to himself.
Carswell significantly didn't do PPE at Oxford.
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Oh? So you are advocating a second referendum? That was quick.AxelCable said:People seem reluctant (or unable) to spell out the implications. Surely it has to be English votes for English issues and that in turn means an English 1st minister or prime minister.
I doubt there is appetite for the UK prime minister being a separate person from the English prime minister and therefore the English 1st minister must also be prime minister of the United Kingdom. (Because most issues will be at the country not UK level.)
In other words the prime minister of UK will need to be the leader of the party that wins England (and Wales) even if that party does not have a majority in the UK as a whole.
The Scots may not like this but it is a consequence of England being so much larger. Otherwise separation.
0 -
Mr. Dee, not much into the history but did see a fascinating and frightening documentary about the sport in the 60s and 70s. I'm astounded it continued given how dangerous it was.
Atkinson is (I gather) a proper petrolhead.0 -
The thing which puts a hole in these crazy theories is that the SNP run many councils like Angus and Aberdeenshire that voted no...Slackbladder said:
Someones calling for an enquiry...and Ed's not leaping on it? Theres a first for everything..MattW said:Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count0 -
But they'll still vote Labour.SeanT said:
Miliband was stratospherically bumbling and uninspiring in Scotland. His new guff about devolution today is just embarrassing.HYUFD said:OGH/MS Cameron has seen off Davis, Brown and Salmond, all more impressive figures than Miliband in many respects, Miliband should have no fears!
Labour must be worried by all this. Indeed I know they are - I have smart lefty friends who despise Miliband (as a politician, not a person) and believe he cannot win.
As will all those who have a vested interest, or believe they have a vested interest, in there being a Labour government.
Everyone knew that Francois Hollande would be crap but he still won.
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The "unfairness" charge could be levelled at tax policy for the higher paid or re child benefit or the "bedroom" tax etc. In short, while the WLQ issue is certainly unfair in some respects I'm not sure how sensible it would necessarily be to campaign against Labour on this rather abstruse point of unfairness. There are better "unfairness" charges which could be levelled at Labour.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, what fronts would it leave Cameron open on? He wants it settled quickly, DevoMax for Scotland and a fair deal for the English.
If he gets it through, fine. If he doesn't, I don't think it will be an issue at the GE.
It would be better, frankly, for the Tories to start trying to get MPs outside their core areas, including in Scotland. One thing I've learned over the last 24 hours is that at the last election, the Tories got only marginally fewer votes than the SNP. They need to be more effective at converting those votes to seats.
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Keep on dreaming !MikeL said:Last night is also a reminder that polls can be out by quite a bit.
24 hours before polling day, all 3 polls issued said No was ahead by 4%. No actually won by 11%.
This is something to keep in mind when looking at GE polls.
There are at least some similarities between the Con / Lab choice and the No / Yes choice - Con (like No) is the status quo, dour, low risk option; Lab (like Yes) is the full of hope, idealistic but higher risk option.
The referendum result shows there can be a substantial swing from the higher risk to the lower risk option at the very last minute.
Not saying this will happen, but it's the sort of thing that could happen.0
