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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    IOS said:

    Max

    So we go back to a normal bit of politicking. I can't even begin to describe what a disaster the Labour party would have been like if this had gone the other way.

    Yes, it was a good night for Labour and the union, there is no doubt. Labour would be a severely diminished party without Scotland, not just because it would lose 41 MPs but also an intellectual and social powerhouse of Labour policy.

    As I said before the future is less certain for Labour in England, as EV4EL is a simple one line policy that will play well in England and Ed is proposing some convoluted constitutional something or other and reneging on the Vow in Scotland.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:


    So here's a question for you. Imagine if it had been only SLAB and not the rest of the Labour party fighting this battle. Would it have been a yes? I think maybe.

    I think the SLAB / Lab relationship is entirely disfunctional and almost as messed up as SLAB is itself. The resources obviously helped but the insight didnt seem much better than that offered in 2011.
  • It seems that some people who are ignorant of the vote count procedure have claimed the referendum vote was mis-counted and/or rigged.

    They have seen video of the verification process when YES and NO votes are still mixed and claimed that YES votes were put on with a NO pile when there was no No and YES separation at that stage.

    An example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing?

    Within 8 hours 50,000 people have been persuaded the vote was rigged. A lesson for us all to check things out before jumping to conclusions.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well that's not going to cut it. He really is a political plonker.

    Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.

    House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Nice statement from Liz
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    IOS said:

    Neil

    Well it would have been civil war. People like myself would have been booting SLAB out the door. Some of SLAB would be trying to stay and other in the would be rUK Labour party would be attacking me for facing reality.


    So here's a question for you. Imagine if it had been only SLAB and not the rest of the Labour party fighting this battle. Would it have been a yes? I think maybe.

    DavidL mentioned last night that Labours UK operation was very impressive and it was the activists and party members from south of the border that swung it as SLAB were pretty useless. He even said that it really only started to change when UK Labour got involved, plus they had to teach a new generation of activists how to win an election. No doubt that that UK Labour made the difference.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Nicholas Witchell Just had a 'Have I got News for You Moment' Just walked off camera with a statement from the Queen he was due to read out live on air
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    ...

    Incidentally, there was a programme on about 8pm on BBC4 (first of three) called A Tale of Three Cities, or similar, about Byzantium/Constantinople/Istanbul.

    That sounds interesting. I shall have to go and investigate Iplayer. Thanks.



  • They would do it adhoc like Croatia, plus the rest of the world (bar the EU) would recognise catalonia (Morocco and Russia certainly would).
    You don't understand that Spain is a western version of Yugoslavia, even down to it's economic performance, only force holds it together for now.



    I lived in Catalonia for five years. I understand it pretty well. Spain and France, to an extent, are absolutely pivotal to Catalonian independence. Morocco is neither here nor there.


    Morocco has for many centuries exported its products through those trade routes into Western Europe so there is a substantial Moroccan population in Catalonia.I was in Holland when Wilders made his racist remarks about Moroccans,who are a major part of Dutch life,and his poll ratings plummeted.
    http://www.thelocal.es/20140917/catalonia-to-win-over-moroccan-voters-with-arabic
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sick leave for Joyce Thacker on Monday, great day to step aside.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29286638

    Reading that you wouldn't have any idea which party she was from would you.

    Was she a politician? I thought she was a council employee.

    @Neil too

    Sorry I thought she was a councillor, my mistake


    This is interesting from almost two years ago

    "What right-minded person could argue with those comments … whether their home town is Rotherham or any other town or city whose Social and Children’s Services is controlled by a loony left Labour stooge.

    AND how long will it be before Joyce Thacker resigns even though she’ll say ‘I’ve done nothing wrong’ and then disappear into the distance after trousering a few hundred thousand pounds in cash. All at the expense of the tax payer, of course."


    http://www.maxfarquar.com/2012/11/joyce-thacker-rotherham-social-services/


  • john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Yet, the whole of Scotland has just voted on the same subject - a "foreign" set of MPs bringing unwanted influence to bear on their lives.

    And UKIP won an election in May, on the same grounds.

    "Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
    "Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"

    I think the English might just grasp it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Ironically the referendum result has strengthened the UK, for the first time the Union has a clear mandate from Scots on a vast turnout
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Max

    SLAB members who live in England but moved back north were alright. But the jist of what you say is right. Labour through the entire of everything it had at this.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2014

    Mr. 565, all that needs be done is to tell people Scottish MPs can vote on English only matters, the Conservatives want English votes on English laws and Miliband wants to stop that and allow the present situation to continue.

    Not overly complicated.

    Again, as I say, the perception that Scotland gets a better deal (esp in terms of prescriptions and tuition fees) IS something that's out there, but how to the average person will blocking Scottish MPs voting help to address that? It would probably be easier to sell to those people an English Parliament (even though I wouldn't want it) on the basis of "we can get the stuff Scotland gets", or to abolish the Scottish Parliament altogether to stop them getting their "unfair" advantages. But I can't see how messing about with parliament voting rights would seem to be either here or there to most people. Not saying people would be AGAINST it as such, they just won't care enough or follow it enough to "punish" any party who opposes it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    IOS said:

    Neil

    The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.

    how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.

  • isam said:

    Wasn't it ignoring the don't knows that caused the polls to be wrong? You can't really just ignore them, that's like allocating them 50/50....I think Dan a Hodges was on the money with this
    Maybe, Isam.

    Maybe Shy-nos played a part too. One cannot know because if one did they wouldn't be Shy.

    I came fairly close to getting it right in the PB prediction comp by taking the poll prediction and adding a few for DKs and SNs. I wouldn't have wanted to risk serious money on such an approach.

    I made a few cautious quid and was happy enough with that.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!

    MattW said:

    "We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.

    That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...

    https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties

    We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...

    Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.
  • john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    You lost Glasgow.

    That's about as relevant as the fact that 'yes' lost the Western Isles. I dont think it necessarily has direct implications for party political elections.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    The policy has 60% support among English voters according to Comres. It is a one line policy that will play well onbthw doorstep.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300



    ...

    Incidentally, there was a programme on about 8pm on BBC4 (first of three) called A Tale of Three Cities, or similar, about Byzantium/Constantinople/Istanbul.

    That sounds interesting. I shall have to go and investigate Iplayer. Thanks.

    It was pretty good. Worth watching.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!

    MattW said:

    "We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.

    That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...

    https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties

    We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...

    Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.
    For reasons, I cannot explain, I see repeats of it whenever my remote finds it channel hopping. Also Total Recall ! Very poorly acted by that very poor actor !
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    chestnut said:



    "Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
    "Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"

    I think the English might just grasp it.

    They certainly grasp those two things -- but won't grasp how blocking Scottish MPs from voting would address that. How would "EV4EL" have stopped Scotland getting free tuition fees/prescriptions, or enabled England to get them?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited September 2014
    Np, Mr. Llama. Incidentally, did you see Lost Kingdoms of Central America? 8pm BBC4 on.... Monday (the Three Cities thing was a different day, now I come to think of it). It was about the Olmecs, and was quite interesting.

    Edited extra bit: the Three Cities thing was/is on Sundays.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Plato said:

    Well that's not going to cut it. He really is a political plonker.

    Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.

    House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.

    Quite, Miss P., it is a warmed-over version of Labour's position from the late 1990s. It didn't work then and it won't work now. The difference being that now England is paying attention and there is now a Party, albeit quite small, that is going to be nipping away at this issue like a terrier at a rat hole and of course the PM has put it centre stage. Blair could get away with burying it as a minor constitutional anomaly, Miliband will not be able to repeat that trick (save for the tribalists).
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    IOS said:

    Neil

    The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.

    how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.

    Did anyone mention the new software and the superb GOTV operation ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited September 2014

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.

    Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.



  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Apols if already posted: Populus Lab 36+1, Con 32-2, UKIP 15+2, LD =9, Others 8=.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Neil said:

    You lost Glasgow.

    That's about as relevant as the fact that 'yes' lost the Western Isles. I dont think it necessarily has direct implications for party political elections.
    we'll see at the vote Neil, but the Nats have been successful at getting out voters who normally wouldn't vote and that alone alters all the FPTP electoral calculations. In the Indyref Labour managed to stop the march of the Nats but they haven't pushed them back to the start line. The SNP still has tanks parked on Labour's lawn in Dundee and Glasgow inter alia.
  • john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
    Not never, though usually not. The thing is, you often can't tell which issue does capture the public's imagination.

    Anyhow, it's still better to be right on an issue, even if the public aren't that bothered, than to be wrong. The campaigning question is about priorities.
  • There may be a chance for us regionalists to get a word in.Regional Parliaments would replace much of Whitehall and would replace the county councils,allowing the day to day functioning of local government where it was pre the 1974 occupation of Ted Heath,to the cities and towns and the parishes where it should be,at its closest point to the people.
    If the South West had a similar system I can guarantee the fiasco of the floods in the Somerset levels would never have happened.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I always used to see Some Like It Hot and a Jim Carey film about penguins.

    Capricorn One and Total Recall are two favourites of mine. I like your remote's taste ;^ )
    surbiton said:

    Plato said:

    At least in Capricorn One they lied about going to Mars!

    MattW said:

    "We Demand a New Referendum 'cos it was Rigged" Petition now at 51,000 signatures. Almost all the sigs are coming from Scotland.

    That's 10,000 more in 2 hours. 1% of Scottish Population and counting...

    https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties

    We'll get a count of the core Salmond Beliebers yet...

    Is this a joke? 50,000 people really think the count was rigged? Unbelievable. Of course Neil Armstrong didn't go to the moon, it was all filmed in the Nevada desert etc etc.
    For reasons, I cannot explain, I see repeats of it whenever my remote finds it channel hopping. Also Total Recall ! Very poorly acted by that very poor actor !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    Danny565 said:

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Yet, the whole of Scotland has just voted on the same subject - a "foreign" set of MPs bringing unwanted influence to bear on their lives.

    And UKIP won an election in May, on the same grounds.

    "Your child pays £9000 tuition fees, while theirs get them for nothing"
    "Your sick mother pays prescription charges, while theirs get them for nothing"

    I think the English might just grasp it.
    As usual a PBTory looking for the silver bullet ! The 2017 referendum was that. Excpet it fired up UKIP instead.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mike is right.

    The only bullet about is the one the Union had dodged. Tories always love to think they have a game changer. These mini highs make the lows so much lower.

    Wait until the Tories lose Clacton.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Wrong. Salmond had his brilliant success when he got the YouGov lead two weeks ago and the subsequent Brownite Vow from the party leaders.

    He may not have broken the Union but he has brought about its remaking - a greater achievement.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    Ruth Davidson is very good. I think she'll do well in Holyrood at the next election. Especially as the SNP - minus the Messiah - turns introspective, and goes left under Sturgeon.

    Davidson is an impressive and distinctively Scottish Tory, and not afraid of a scrap. More power to her elbow!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    And amusingly ironic.
    Ishmael_X said:

    Wrong. Salmond had his brilliant success when he got the YouGov lead two weeks ago and the subsequent Brownite Vow from the party leaders.

    He may not have broken the Union but he has brought about its remaking - a greater achievement.

  • SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.



    Calm down. Get some sleep.

    Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.

    It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
    But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    surbiton said:

    IOS said:

    Neil

    The resources were huge absolutely huge not just to SLAB but Better Together. Yesterday Labour finish fighting a second front. That has a huge implication for politics.

    how ? Their scottish heartlands are vulnerable at the next GE now that the SNP have discovered a new seam of vulnerable voters. You lost Glasgow.

    Did anyone mention the new software and the superb GOTV operation ?
    well the SNP have been putting money in to their operations.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014
    IOS said:

    Winning the AV / FPTP

    Winning the Independence debate



    Labours done well on the referendums.

    Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.

    Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.
  • john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.
    Not never, though usually not. The thing is, you often can't tell which issue does capture the public's imagination.

    Anyhow, it's still better to be right on an issue, even if the public aren't that bothered, than to be wrong. The campaigning question is about priorities.
    British elections are rarely about magic bullets. Its more a drip-drip effect for months or years before the GE about the overall direction and narrative. I'm not convinced Labour have the narrative at all sorted. However, as I just said, and Mike has said many times, this will be an odd election.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2014
    MaxPB said:

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    The policy has 60% support among English voters according to Comres. It is a one line policy that will play well onbthw doorstep.
    We'll have to see what other polls say, but there was a YouGov at the weekend which had only about 25% agreeing (another 25% wanted either an English Parliament or regional assemblies, another 25% said they were fine with the status quo, and the other 25% said don't know).

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dx68iw22ce/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-1400912-main.pdf
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Np, Mr. Llama. Incidentally, did you see Lost Kingdoms of Central America? 8pm BBC4 on.... Monday (the Three Cities thing was a different day, now I come to think of it). It was about the Olmecs, and was quite interesting.

    Edited extra bit: the Three Cities thing was/is on Sundays.

    Mr. D., I never watch television. Haven't done for many years, since my boy was about four or five when we used to watch Insektors together on a Saturday morning (surely the funniest animated series in modern times, the British scripts were especially hilarious). So I am reliant on friends for telling me of things on the catch up interweb channels that I might like.

    Your advice is gratefully received and will be put to use the next time I have ironing to do.
  • john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.

    Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.




    Any swingback would have to be from Labour back to Lib Dem from whom they have taken a large chunk of supporters.

    However the pollsters show Lib Dem switchers to Labour are more loyal to Labour than long term Labour supporters.
  • surbiton said:

    IOS said:

    Winning the AV / FPTP

    Winning the Independence debate



    Labours done well on the referendums.

    Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.

    Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.
    Which is why they were stupid to oppose AV. But there you go...
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.



    Calm down. Get some sleep.

    Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.

    It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
    But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.
    Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.

    Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.

    We are surely looking at another hung parliament?

    I'd say so. But if a week is a long time, then eight months is an eternity...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    They certainly grasp those two things -- but won't grasp how blocking Scottish MPs from voting would address that.

    People will grasp that it seems unfair.

    It doesn't matter if they grasp the detail - most voters never do. It's about planting a perception that enough people take as reality.

    "The NHS in Scotland is going to be privatised, because of Westminster".
    "There will be millions of Romanians and Bulgarians free to come here"
    "We'll spend X amount on XXXX paid for banker's bonus taxes"





  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.



    Calm down. Get some sleep.

    Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.

    It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
    But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.
    Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.

    Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.

    We are surely looking at another hung parliament?

    Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    OGH/MS Cameron has seen off Davis, Brown and Salmond, all more impressive figures than Miliband in many respects, Miliband should have no fears!
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:
    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.



    Calm down. Get some sleep.

    Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.

    It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
    But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.
    Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.

    Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.

    We are surely looking at another hung parliament?

    Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.
    LOL. But then again, Brown was nowhere near as bad a politician or orator as everyone seems to now remember. Indeed, he was a towering figure in 1990s Labour.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up. The electoral dynamics are very different.

    Labour's is starting to get problems with UKIP seepage but it is on only about half the scale as the Tories.




    Any swingback would have to be from Labour back to Lib Dem from whom they have taken a large chunk of supporters.

    However the pollsters show Lib Dem switchers to Labour are more loyal to Labour than long term Labour supporters.
    Or from Labour over to other parties (with a particularly big threat of the Lib Dem-defectors-to-Labour going to the Greens).
  • Off-topic:

    The real reason for Bedfordshire's Deputy PCC's resignation in July comes out: she tried to influence the judge in a murder case.

    Oops.

    http://www.heart.co.uk/fourcounties/news/local/bedfordshire-deputy-pcc-resignation/
  • The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum

    By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.

    September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...

    1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.

    2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...

    3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...
  • Anyway enough of this banter. I'm off to the boozer to celebrate the saving of the Union. Night all.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Tapestry said:

    The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum

    By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.

    September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...

    1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.

    2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...

    3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...

    Those sources dont seem to be too accurate, Tap! New conspiracy needed!

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    surbiton said:

    IOS said:

    Winning the AV / FPTP

    Winning the Independence debate



    Labours done well on the referendums.

    Winning the AV / FPTP was the masterstroke. Giving the fools the impression that it was for their own good.

    Imagine, the 2015 election with AV. The Tories would have walked it. Most UKIP votes would not have been lost to the Tories.
    Which is why they were stupid to oppose AV. But there you go...
    It is quite possible that they would have lost seats via becoming second preference to the kippers amongst their own, while kippers put other parties in second spot.

    The AV poll killed voting reform for the forseable. Best bet is STV in council seats next time round.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    edited September 2014


    Of course it's partisan. As usual all the Westminster parties are looking for the best way to engineer the situation to their advantage rather than work together to create something that is durable and everyone can support. It's exactly this kind of thing that put the Union in peril and which alienates swathes of voters across the UK.

    Labour is going to get burned on this and the Tories will end up entrenching anti-Tory feeling. A proper constitutional settlement is what we need so that the issue can be put to bed. But our leaders are not grown-up enough for that, so instead we will get bickering, petty point scoring and years of tampering depending on who is in power. It's a complete joke.

    "As usual all the Westminster parties are looking for the best way to engineer the situation to their advantage rather than work together to create something that is durable and everyone can support."

    Chortle.

    This very morning I was suggesting Miliband, Cameron and Clegg work together to sort something out, whilst you were favouring the Labour stitch-up.

    Chortle.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    I have been awake for the last 36 hours,and followed the referendum,and the post mortem on PB and other sites. Thanks to all the posters for their informed comments.
    Personally I think we got the best result possible and the union has been saved,but I cannot begin to imagine the grief some of the "yessers",now feel,I even feel a bit sorry for Malcolm,he was genuine,but totally refused to accept any other view than his was possible,or even worth debating.
    I hope we all get together and put this behind us,but reading comments on other sites,I suspect not.
    I will probably go back to major lurking now until next May.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tapestry said:

    The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum

    By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.

    September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...

    1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.

    2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...

    3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...

    Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,893
    Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Tapestry said:
    Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.
  • Mr. Llama, I don't tend to watch too much. Mostly it's been sci-fi repeats on Pick, although I was glad to catch The Walking Dead on 5* (it should be on a more prominent channel).

    BBC4 can have good stuff on it.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    @Danny565

    'Chortling at this idea that Labour will be "killed" in England for opposing "EV4EL". It's too complicated and seemingly irrelevant for the public to pick up on it'

    Voters too stupid to understand English votes for English laws,I suppose it's a view or maybe just wishful thinking.

    We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.

    Remember Dave's promise on an EU referendum and how that was going to put EdM on the spot or the recent response to Rotherham? They never quite have the force that people believe.


    Don't worry Mike, we have a magic nuke set to go off in the election campaign, and he's called Ed Miliband.
    There you are - another magic bullet for you to believe in. It's pathetic.

    What you are failing to grasp is that because Labour's has attracted so few CON voters since 2010 there are few CON voters who can be seduced back. That's why all this swingback theorising doesn't stand-up.



    Calm down. Get some sleep.

    Miliband is a big problem for Labour. No leader with his negative ratings has ever won an election.

    It's not "pathetic wishful thinking", it's historical and electoral fact.
    But there have been few elections with the strange situation we have - a coalition, a Liberal collapse, odd vote demographics that given Labour an in-built advantage, a split on the right with UKIP.
    Oh, I agree. All true. I'm just saying it's silly for Mike to dismiss the Miliband Factor. His feeble leadership and unpopularity is a huge drag on the Labour vote, and history says he cannot win with those ratings.

    Equally, it is very difficult to see Tories getting an overall majority, for the reasons you say.

    We are surely looking at another hung parliament?

    Milliband, a leader so inept, Gordon Brown is dragged out of the attic to give his speeches.
    Ed certainly did not make much of an impression in Scotland - the last time I saw Ed, he was running for cover from a baying mob – They may or may not have been Labour supporters, I’m not sure.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Police keeping YES/NO supporters apart in face-off at George Square, Glasgow. Reports of scuffles and rising tension...
  • MattW said:

    Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count

    Someones calling for an enquiry...and Ed's not leaping on it? Theres a first for everything..
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Although yes, I do agree that Ed going down in Scotland about as well as a "flatulent dog in a lift" (trademark Jeremy Paxman) is yet another worrying sign. All the reasons for why Labour should win make sense on paper, but it's still hard to see how people are going to vote for someone they see as such a joke to be PM.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Police keeping YES/NO supporters apart in face-off at George Square, Glasgow. Reports of scuffles and rising tension...

    It's Friday night in Glasgow......
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MkeSmithson

    'We have seen it so often here - the blue gang's search for the magic bullet that will solve all their electoral problems.'

    Did I say it was a magic bullet or that it will solve all their electoral problems?

    Good luck if you feel this issue will not resonate with the electorate and will continue to be tolerated.
  • Mr. Dee, surely you won't be able to resist the discussion about English devolution?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Swinney rules himself out as leader of SNP...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Cameron will get a boost in the polls from saving the Union and his statement today, Scots clearly endorsed his pro Union view and the English will welcome his promise to answer the W Lothian question, Miliband is despised by most Scots and has just promised to oppose any settlement to give England a greater voice, even the Greens are starting to rise and could eat into his left as UKIP have eaten into Cameron's base and Miliband's working class support. Cameron to lead another Coalition in my view
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    This is a good day for the Union, if not as good a day as yesterday. I say this because Salmond is devious, deceptive and a truly brilliant liar, capable of persuading even himself that black is white if the circumstances require it. In short he is an exceptionally able politician.

    Sturgeon is another kettle of fish (sorry, impossible to resist). She is feisty, diligent and fierce but has few of the other skills Salmond has. The SNP will be less dangerous with her at the helm.

    I also think that Salmond's achievement or lack of it should be put into some sort of context.

    He held his referendum at a time there was tory led government with 1 MP in Scotland.
    When that government was obliged to restrict spending and promise more cuts to come.
    When North Sea oil is still a significant factor.
    When Labour is led by a north London intellectual who is at least as alien to most Scots as Cameron (who is, in fact, the more popular of the two).
    When he controlled the machinery of the Scottish government and had no compunction about abusing it with nonsense like the White Paper.
    When he had not yet been found out in respect of a number of major goodies such as the unsustainable "free" tuition fees and free prescriptions for a Scottish health service that is now teetering on the edge of crisis having overspent to cover the cracks until the referendum took place.

    It was, in fact, a perfect storm for Unionism and yet he lost. Quite badly actually. There was undoubtedly some skill in manipulating some of the pieces of that storm into place but it will be very difficult to have better circumstances in which to make a bid for independence.

    People continue to underestimate Cameron. I really hope that continues.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    Swinney rules himself out as leader of SNP...

    It didnt go so well last time. Can there be a surer thing in politics than Sturgeon winning this (if there is even a contest)?
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    DavidL said:

    This is a good day for the Union, if not as good a day as yesterday. I say this because Salmond is devious, deceptive and a truly brilliant liar, capable of persuading even himself that black is white if the circumstances require it. In short he is an exceptionally able politician.

    Sturgeon is another kettle of fish (sorry, impossible to resist). She is feisty, diligent and fierce but has few of the other skills Salmond has. The SNP will be less dangerous with her at the helm.

    I also think that Salmond's achievement or lack of it should be put into some sort of context.

    He held his referendum at a time there was tory led government with 1 MP in Scotland.
    When that government was obliged to restrict spending and promise more cuts to come.
    When North Sea oil is still a significant factor.
    When Labour is led by a north London intellectual who is at least as alien to most Scots as Cameron (who is, in fact, the more popular of the two).
    When he controlled the machinery of the Scottish government and had no compunction about abusing it with nonsense like the White Paper.
    When he had not yet been found out in respect of a number of major goodies such as the unsustainable "free" tuition fees and free prescriptions for a Scottish health service that is now teetering on the edge of crisis having overspent to cover the cracks until the referendum took place.

    It was, in fact, a perfect storm for Unionism and yet he lost. Quite badly actually. There was undoubtedly some skill in manipulating some of the pieces of that storm into place but it will be very difficult to have better circumstances in which to make a bid for independence.

    People continue to underestimate Cameron. I really hope that continues.

    Great post. Agree, 100%.
  • Tapestry said:
    Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.
    You might have added that the pictures prove the beheadings were false, Watcher. Or are you here to distort information and keep everyone asleep? Thought so.

  • Apols if already posted: Populus Lab 36+1, Con 32-2, UKIP 15+2, LD =9, Others 8=.

    Nick Palmer, totally OT but you recently asked about parking tickets issued by private firms like ParkingEye. I got one cancelled today by following the advice on Martin Lewis's website: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=4816822

    I used the legal letter template from that site and sent it ParkingEye. This was after threating letters etc. Got email today saying they'd cancelled it. Naturally, I am now a fan of Lewis's site.
  • People seem reluctant (or unable) to spell out the implications. Surely it has to be English votes for English issues and that in turn means an English 1st minister or prime minister.

    I doubt there is appetite for the UK prime minister being a separate person from the English prime minister and therefore the English 1st minister must also be prime minister of the United Kingdom. (Because most issues will be at the country not UK level.)

    In other words the prime minister of UK will need to be the leader of the party that wins England (and Wales) even if that party does not have a majority in the UK as a whole.

    The Scots may not like this but it is a consequence of England being so much larger. Otherwise separation.
  • Tapestry said:

    The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum

    By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.

    September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...

    1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.

    2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...

    3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...

    Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!

    Oh dear! so the new Royal baby was just a spoof?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    DavidL Don't forget Cameron is half Scottish, Miliband has no Scottish blood at all, indeed, despite being an MP for Doncaster, he looks and sounds like the north London intellectual he is
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited September 2014
    Last night is also a reminder that polls can be out by quite a bit.

    24 hours before polling day, all 3 polls issued said No was ahead by 4%. No actually won by 11%.

    This is something to keep in mind when looking at GE polls.

    There are at least some similarities between the Con / Lab choice and the No / Yes choice - Con (like No) is the status quo, dour, low risk option; Lab (like Yes) is the full of hope, idealistic but higher risk option.

    The referendum result shows there can be a substantial swing from the higher risk to the lower risk option at the very last minute.

    Not saying this will happen, but it's the sort of thing that could happen.
  • Mr. Neil, are you trying to tempt us into making 'Ed Miliband being crap' type answers?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Greetings all.

    As di Lampedusa wrote in The Leopard: "Everything needs to change, so everything can stay the same").

    Constitutional issues are of very little interest to most voters and I doubt that the WLQ will be the magic bullet the Tories imagine. Plus it risks looking as if the political class is simply thinking about itself rather than about the voters.

    And the very last thing we need are more layers of government and more politicians.

    Unless Cameron can make a clear connection between the issue and how it affects voters, I doubt it will make much traction, certainly not enough to change votes next May. Cameron could hammer the "unfairness" argument of course but that leaves him open to attacks on other front.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Johann Lamont actually said something wise and clever just now: a union established by an elite, 300 years ago, has now, finally, been democratically confirmed by the people.

    Ms. Lamont said that? Who'd a thunk it.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Mr. Dee, surely you won't be able to resist the discussion about English devolution?

    Oh go on then you charmer.
    Actually thought about you last week after a superb Goodwood revival,and Jackie there recounting his experiences,some fantastic racing,and a shocking crash on the first race,these pre 1950 racing cars seem too valuable to race,one turned over in front of me,no roll bar,no seat belts,the public rushed over the barriers to upright the car,fortunately he seemed OK. Rowan Atkinson later looked a bit naffed off.
  • Miss Cyclefree, what fronts would it leave Cameron open on? He wants it settled quickly, DevoMax for Scotland and a fair deal for the English.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Tapestry said:

    Tapestry said:
    Anyone tempted to go near Tapestry's website should be aware that it contains some deeply unpleasant and dis-tasteful images of beheaded ISIS captives.
    You might have added that the pictures prove the beheadings were false, Watcher. Or are you here to distort information and keep everyone asleep? Thought so.

    It's probably best for OGH, if the weird and fanciful theories are confined to your own website.
  • I had Bob Latchford paint my front wall today.The son of the Everton legend played for Bristol Rovers and suffered a career ending injury.I feel priviliged and will give his firm a good report.Wonderful centre-forward.
  • Danny565 said:

    Although yes, I do agree that Ed going down in Scotland about as well as a "flatulent dog in a lift" (trademark Jeremy Paxman) is yet another worrying sign. All the reasons for why Labour should win make sense on paper, but it's still hard to see how people are going to vote for someone they see as such a joke to be PM.

    Douglas Carswell and EdM have similar privileged backgrounds, similar nerdy looks and similar wonkish tendencies.

    Yet Carswell has 'gone native' in his very wwc constituency and appears to be well liked by his constituents.

    Whereas EdM can't connect with people outside his social class, doesn't seem interested in trying to connect and doesn't even seem interested in appearing to try to connect with people different to himself.

    Carswell significantly didn't do PPE at Oxford.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2014

    Tapestry said:

    The British plan to steal Scotland's independence referendum

    By Wayne Madsen, September 10 2014.

    September 10-11, 2014 - The British plan to steal ...

    1. Informed British sources have revealed that the British government... has colluded with the British media to downplay in articles, news ... and ... opinion polls the actual strength of the pro-independence 'Yes' campaign in Scotland.

    2. The hyped news reports, including "news" about a looming terrorist threat and a new royal baby, as well as skewed polling numbers, according to our sources, is to prepare the country for a razor-thin loss for the pro-independence "Yes" vote in...

    3. Our sources report that the actual "Yes" for independence vote is leading the "No" vote by a full 11 percentage points...

    Excellent. At least our spooks are earning their crust, not just uploading nude celebrities from the cloud!

    Oh dear! so the new Royal baby was just a spoof?
    The baby is a conspiracy between two unionist monarchists, and months in the planning

    ;-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    AxelCable said:

    People seem reluctant (or unable) to spell out the implications. Surely it has to be English votes for English issues and that in turn means an English 1st minister or prime minister.

    I doubt there is appetite for the UK prime minister being a separate person from the English prime minister and therefore the English 1st minister must also be prime minister of the United Kingdom. (Because most issues will be at the country not UK level.)

    In other words the prime minister of UK will need to be the leader of the party that wins England (and Wales) even if that party does not have a majority in the UK as a whole.

    The Scots may not like this but it is a consequence of England being so much larger. Otherwise separation.

    Oh? So you are advocating a second referendum? That was quick.

  • Mr. Dee, not much into the history but did see a fascinating and frightening documentary about the sport in the 60s and 70s. I'm astounded it continued given how dangerous it was.

    Atkinson is (I gather) a proper petrolhead.
  • MattW said:

    Dear God, there's another one.... with another 40000 conspiraloons.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/independent-enquiry-for-scottish-referendum-vote-count

    Someones calling for an enquiry...and Ed's not leaping on it? Theres a first for everything..
    The thing which puts a hole in these crazy theories is that the SNP run many councils like Angus and Aberdeenshire that voted no...
  • SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    OGH/MS Cameron has seen off Davis, Brown and Salmond, all more impressive figures than Miliband in many respects, Miliband should have no fears!

    Miliband was stratospherically bumbling and uninspiring in Scotland. His new guff about devolution today is just embarrassing.

    Labour must be worried by all this. Indeed I know they are - I have smart lefty friends who despise Miliband (as a politician, not a person) and believe he cannot win.
    But they'll still vote Labour.

    As will all those who have a vested interest, or believe they have a vested interest, in there being a Labour government.

    Everyone knew that Francois Hollande would be crap but he still won.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Miss Cyclefree, what fronts would it leave Cameron open on? He wants it settled quickly, DevoMax for Scotland and a fair deal for the English.

    The "unfairness" charge could be levelled at tax policy for the higher paid or re child benefit or the "bedroom" tax etc. In short, while the WLQ issue is certainly unfair in some respects I'm not sure how sensible it would necessarily be to campaign against Labour on this rather abstruse point of unfairness. There are better "unfairness" charges which could be levelled at Labour.

    If he gets it through, fine. If he doesn't, I don't think it will be an issue at the GE.

    It would be better, frankly, for the Tories to start trying to get MPs outside their core areas, including in Scotland. One thing I've learned over the last 24 hours is that at the last election, the Tories got only marginally fewer votes than the SNP. They need to be more effective at converting those votes to seats.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AllyM said:

    SeanT said:

    Johann Lamont actually said something wise and clever just now: a union established by an elite, 300 years ago, has now, finally, been democratically confirmed by the people.

    Ms. Lamont said that? Who'd a thunk it.
    You mean the FM after the next elections in Scotland ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    Last night is also a reminder that polls can be out by quite a bit.

    24 hours before polling day, all 3 polls issued said No was ahead by 4%. No actually won by 11%.

    This is something to keep in mind when looking at GE polls.

    There are at least some similarities between the Con / Lab choice and the No / Yes choice - Con (like No) is the status quo, dour, low risk option; Lab (like Yes) is the full of hope, idealistic but higher risk option.

    The referendum result shows there can be a substantial swing from the higher risk to the lower risk option at the very last minute.

    Not saying this will happen, but it's the sort of thing that could happen.

    Keep on dreaming !
This discussion has been closed.