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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

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  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    OK this is my last smug self regarding comment, at least for the next 20 minutes,

    Given the number of times you changed your mind and posted entirely contrary views yesterday I'd be surprised if you couldn't pluck something impressive-sounding out of the archives.

    Get a grip next time, man. And at the same time maybe have the humility to realise your evident loathing for Cameron is misplaced. The boy did good. Not bad for someone who read PPE.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Salmond arguably blundered by not holding the referendum just after the next general election.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    OK this is my last smug self regarding comment, at least for the next 20 minutes, but when the eurozone first went into crisis, I noted on here that it killed off Salmond's chances of winning any indyref, because he would have no answer to the currency question.

    And so it proved, about four years later. The currency was the killer.

    If the euro had been functioning smoothly, I reckon he would have won this referendum.

    Given the trends in the Eurozone - unemployment at almost 12 percent, virtually unchanged since a year ago - it's quite possible that the next Eurozone crisis will kill off the In side for an EU referendum too.
  • To lose the regferendum may be regarded as a misfortune: to lose your leader as well looks like carelessness.

    Scottish Nationalists are going to be very demoralised.

    Time for the opposition to kick a party while it's down.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hugh said:

    Sadiq Khan spot on

    Most important vote in generation saw 1000s of 16 & 17 year olds vote in indyref. How can we deny them vote in General Election?

    Because voting is for adults and we define that as 18+.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Carnyx said:


    And any new "real socialist" party arising from the Glasgow area after the indyref.

    Do we know whether it's going to be an SWP front or an SP front?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    Sadiq Khan spot on

    Most important vote in generation saw 1000s of 16 & 17 year olds vote in indyref. How can we deny them vote in General Election?

    Absolutely.

    How old do you have to be to die in one of our wars ?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    Because voting is for adults and we define that as 18+.
    Wonder if Labour will push for that as part of constitutional reform. Is it popular in the UK?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Carnyx said:

    I'm getting endabuse.org ads with a soulful teenager looking out at me ...

    I'm getting cheap airfares to Buenos Aires (I depart on Monday) and 'build your non-profit business plan before lunch" (I work for an NGO), so pretty apposite - scarily so. Big Brother is Watching.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,645

    Watching him stand there and pretend that the fact that Scotland could use the pound without a currency union was some new revelation he'd just forced Darling to admit for the first time, and get a huge round of applause for it, and knowing that the media was never going to call him out on it, was absolutely sickening.

    That was certainly the most irritating part that I can recall as well. Some very theatrical touches throughout which played well to his supporters, but little else.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    *APPLAUSE*

    Great post, Sir.

    The second Darling vs Salmond debate was just gruelling to watch, with the combination of Salmond's bare-faced deceptions and Darling's complete inability to handle them.

    Watching him stand there and pretend that the fact that Scotland could use the pound without a currency union was some new revelation he'd just forced Darling to admit for the first time, and get a huge round of applause for it, and knowing that the media was never going to call him out on it, was absolutely sickening.

    It was the same low, obvious tricks over and over, throughout the campaign. Pretending that not liking No's "negativity" was a good reason to vote Yes, as if the referendum was some kind of reality TV show competition where viewers phoned in to vote on which campaign had more flair and panache. Somehow managing to turn their inability to answer the most basic questions into a positive point by claiming that No was harping on the same points. The ridiculous Hope vs Fear dichotomy (when you stand on the edge of a cliff, do you choose Fear of splattering on the rocks below, or Hope that you'll somehow learn to fly on the way down?)

    And I guess mentioning how stupid you have to be to fall for all that would have been patronising or something, so of course nobody ever did. No let Yes set the agenda again and again. I'm sure it was a joint success for Yes, but Salmond really was the face of those awful tactics, and he absolutely exemplified them. So no matter what his achievements or history, it's very hard for me to be anything other than glad to see the back of him.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    surbiton said:

    Absolutely.

    How old do you have to be to die in one of our wars ?
    18.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    That is also the problem.
    Salmond promised the moon and stars, he promised to turn scotland into a gay religious socialist state with low taxes and deregulation for businesses, all funded by oil and green power.
    So he lied heavily to either the poor or the rich, to the gays or the priests, to the oilmen or the greens, or simply to everyone including you.

    He only cared to have scotland under his boot, he didn't care how.
    He managed to convince 1,617,989 to vote 'Yes'.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Sorry I'm not shedding any false tears. He was only interested in power and passing the trappings of his new state on to his cronies. I'd have thought more of him if her stuck around to ensure the best Devo Max deal for Scotland
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    Socrates said:

    I can't imagine the powers that be ever being stupid enough to exclude Scots living in rUK from the electorate again.
    I have asked before - but please, how can you do that in an indyref if they are not living in the territory whose departure s actually in question, by international standards? Exactly the same problem applies to any indyref in the world, so it cannot be regarded as UK exceptionalism.

    And the sole counterargument (and a weak one) is that it affects their passport rights at some future time. But so too does it affect the rights of all Scots worldwide. And, in the absence of a Scottish passport (!) as evidence of identity, it's impossible to achieve reliablhy or practically or securely.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Socrates said:

    I can't imagine the powers that be ever being stupid enough to exclude Scots living in rUK from the electorate again.
    Who will qualify as a "Scot" living in rUK ?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    To lose the regferendum may be regarded as a misfortune: to lose your leader as well looks like carelessness.

    They're only one MSP away from losing their majority...


    (Not that it would matter hugely.)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Salmond lying to the end - the pledge did not promise 2nd reading by March.

  • Of all the people arguing 'no' last night I didn't hear (on the BBC) a single one of them saying they wanted extra powers and were satisfied with the level of extra powers the three leaders had proposed. Rather they were terrified of the uncertainty regarding prices, pensions, currency etc. or had some emotional reaction to the yes campaign.

    People have not spoken for more devolution.
  • AndyJS said:

    Because voting is for adults and we define that as 18+.
    IndyRef would affect their future for years to come not just the next electoral cycle.

    Makes sense to allow 16+ to vote.

    However, Ref and GE totally different situations.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Salmond arguably blundered by not holding the referendum just after the next general election.

    If Labour is in power the "NO TORIES GOVERNING SCOTLAND" would not work.
    He calculated every aspect of the referendum in his favour, even down to the date, yet he lost by a margin of 10%.
  • And at the same time, another politician is reborn: Sarkozy announces his candidacy to lead the UMP in France.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826
    edited September 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Because voting is for adults and we define that as 18+.
    an election and a referendum are different . A referendum like this would have affected the 16 and 17 years olds to their dying day , an election would have affected them for a maximum of 5 years (say to the age of 21 , when on average most 21 year olds are still not in gainful employment)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Carnyx said:

    I'm getting endabuse.org ads with a soulful teenager looking out at me ...

    I have been getting those for months, no idea why. I also get a load of other stuff which seems to have no connection to me or my lifestyle, including this afternoon a a call for me to "Learn 15 Brutally Effective Fight Enders". Frankly, I am unimpressed by this targeted ad stuff and think that in the main it is just random.

    Else
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    He managed to convince 1,617,989 to vote 'Yes'.
    1,617,988 - presumably he was the 1,617,989th...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,645
    Hugh said:

    Sadiq Khan spot on

    Most important vote in generation saw 1000s of 16 & 17 year olds vote in indyref. How can we deny them vote in General Election?

    Quite. I disagreed with giving them the vote for this, but having been done for such an important event, what rationale to deny it them for other elections? Not convincing ones from what I've seen.
    Carnyx said:

    I'm getting endabuse.org ads with a soulful teenager looking out at me ...

    Alzheimer's Association and an exhortation to 'Ditch the man purse' for me
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    That was certainly the most irritating part that I can recall as well. Some very theatrical touches throughout which played well to his supporters, but little else.
    Him saying he had "multiple plan Bs" and asking Darling to name "3 job-creating powers that will be devolved" were annoying too, in both cases because Darling handled them so incompetently.

    Probably Darling's worst handling of a question was in debate 1, when he was given the absolute gift of a question of "Could an independent Scotland be successful", and he just stammered and awkwardly avoided answering. But that was overshadowed by Salmond's generally terrible performance during that debate, so it wasn't quite so frustrating.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AxelCable said:


    People have not spoken for more devolution.

    They're going to get it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm still a bit surprised by the Glasgow result. You'd have expected Rangers supporters to have voted No in large numbers. Hope they keep investigating the alleged voting fraud there.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Carnyx said:

    I have asked before - but please, how can you do that in an indyref if they are not living in the territory whose departure s actually in question, by international standards? Exactly the same problem applies to any indyref in the world, so it cannot be regarded as UK exceptionalism.

    And the sole counterargument (and a weak one) is that it affects their passport rights at some future time. But so too does it affect the rights of all Scots worldwide. And, in the absence of a Scottish passport (!) as evidence of identity, it's impossible to achieve reliablhy or practically or securely.

    Because they are the ones that have the most interest in the continuation of the union. The have not emigrated internationally - merely they are living in another part of the country that is the UK. Given that the event could change their nationality, it's only right they get a vote.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    And at the same time, another politician is reborn: Sarkozy announces his candidacy to lead the UMP in France.

    Possibly from jail.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Golly, are you PB's own Brad Pitt from Fight Club?

    I have been getting those for months, no idea why. I also get a load of other stuff which seems to have no connection to me or my lifestyle, including this afternoon a a call for me to "Learn 15 Brutally Effective Fight Enders". Frankly, I am unimpressed by this targeted ad stuff and think that in the main it is just random.

    Else
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    I'm getting adverts for the impeach Obama campaign and for Muslim dating websites. You have to question their targeting mechanism.

    Stop looking at Muslim dating websites. tim was right all along. You do have this Muslim thing.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    You'd have expected Rangers supporters to have voted No in large numbers.

    They're a lower league team these days. Many fewer season ticket holders than they used to have.
  • A couple of polling day anecdotes.

    1) My wife took an elderly lady to her polling station. She was 92 years old. And this was the first time she had voted. Imagine that, 71 years without exercising the franchise.
    2) My son, while voting in Edinburgh, saw polling station staff assisting an elderly lady. She was overcome with emotion. She wondered how she could possibly find herself voting to prevent her country from being broken up.

    I've no doubt that there will be some Yes people feeling a degree of angst and upset today. But let's not forget the angst and upset Salmond et al have caused to so many people in the run up to this referendum.

    Post-polling day anecdote:

    My neighbour has just presented me with a chilled bottle of Czech beer to show his appreciation for my having stood up to be counted. Fairly made my day! (Even better than the news of the Salmond despatch.)

    And I'm still marvelling at 58% in Moray.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    kle4 said:

    Quite. I disagreed with giving them the vote for this, but having been done for such an important event, what rationale to deny it them for other elections? Not convincing ones from what I've seen. Alzheimer's Association and an exhortation to 'Ditch the man purse' for me
    I don't see why Scotland should set a precedent for the rest of us. We've danced to their tune long enough. Under the new system, you won't even leave full time education until you're 18. It's absurd for an age group where the majority has little experience of taking full responsibility for themselves should have a say in what happens nationally.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Last post from me: women. We don't yet have the breakdown, but Salmond appears to have substantially lost the female vote. It wasn't just his hectoring and bullying, but crucially the household purse that he buggered up on, as ruthlessly exploited by Better Together.

    Cameron needs to watch that he doesn't ape Salmond's macho posturing because it's a massive turnoff to women, and they are crucial for power. If you're a male political leader you need to show a softer side. A female leader has it slightly easier on that front if, like Maggie early on, she appears to talk our language.

    Who was it that reminded us again near the end of this campaign that 'it's the economy stupid'? It's one of the aphorisms Mike dislikes but it has once again proved true.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any odds quoted on Kenny McAskill ?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    surbiton said:

    Stop looking at Muslim dating websites. tim was right all along. You do have this Muslim thing.
    I can only guess it's because I spend a fair about of time reading about Syria, Iraq and the Arab Spring, plus the odd read of verses from the Koran to see whether the moderates or extremists are right about an interpretation.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    I'm still a bit surprised by the Glasgow result. You'd have expected Rangers supporters to have voted No in large numbers. Hope they keep investigating the alleged voting fraud there.

    There was a lot of social democratic rhetoric, probably even well meant, in the YES campaign. For example, the NHS will always be in public hands. That could have swated many Labour voters.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    an election and a referendum are different . A referendum like this would have affected the 16 and 17 years olds to their dying day , an election would have affected them for a maximum of 5 years (say to the age of 21 , when on average most 21 year olds are still not in gainful employment)
    Quite. They can be trusted to decide the entire future of their country until their dying day, but not to choose a Government for 5 years?

    Not sustainable. They'll have the vote soon enough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,584
    Socrates said:

    I'm getting adverts for the impeach Obama campaign and for Muslim dating websites. You have to question their targeting mechanism.

    Lol, yes. I'm getting ads for £250,000 investment portfolios (I wish) and holidays in Malta (eh?).

    Last week's Economist had a special supplement on how marketing agencies track our tastes (a LOT) and target accordingly. Up to a point I don't mind if they do target me accurately - I'd rather see adverts for board games and left-wing books and special offers on curry than trips to Malta or whatever. But I basically avoid looking at adverts whatever they are (and hadn't noticed the ones mentioned above till I scrolled to check).

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    They're a lower league team these days. Many fewer season ticket holders than they used to have.
    Yet they finished with the prize - like they have more times than any other Scottish team.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    Socrates said:

    Even on the currency, if he had just said "The preferred option is a currency union, but if Westminster proves to be vindictive about this, then a Scottish pound would be a perfectly adequate alternative." It would have been very hard for the No campaign to have a clear message against that.
    Perhaps you are not allowing for the fact that any such statement would instantly have been seized on (rather illogically given the Unionist attitudes to pre-referendum discussions, and post-referendum for that matter, but never mind) as a concession which would have been used to damage Scottish negotiations after a Yes. Add to that the refusal of Westminster to discuss possibilities in any sort of proactive manner, and the media presentation. I think a great deal of what seems anomalous had to do with the need to hold the fort without being seen to retreat. That doesn't mean that a different approach mightn't have worked better, but I have never felt that the SNP approach was as irrational as it might seem to some, or as it was touted.

  • A final farewell, and be careful as ye' gaes', to the Wee-Eck:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLRuMKzgUYs

    Welcome to the real world....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alex Salmond has resigned.

    Gutted.

    I posted the rumour this morning. and didn't back it...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:
    Despicable. How can a group that migrated here so many generations ago still be unintegrated? No appreciation of long-standing British liberal principles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,645
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:
    Ed Wells wrote: "More information on the signs would be better. It does come across very badly if you don't know the reason".

    Oh, sure, that's it. It wouldn't come across badly at all then.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Cameron has, more by luck than judgement, an enormous opportunity.

    In England, he becomes the English hero, standing up for English votes on England only issues. Labour have to oppose, kick into the long grass, invent new dodgy English regional bollox etc. A very bad position for Labour, will not be popular with anyone.

    In Scotland, he runs with the "Vow" at his pace, linked to English changes, which is not what Comrade Brown promised. The only direction for any anger this creates is at SLAB as there's only 1 Tory MP to rant at and its a Brown/SLAB promise anyway. Equally bad for Labour.

    Then in 2015 election, voters will support the parties that are going provide the best deal & strongest negotiators. In Scotland that's the SNP; in England, the Tories. Miliband screwed.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Hugh said:

    Quite. They can be trusted to decide the entire future of their country until their dying day, but not to choose a Government for 5 years?

    Not sustainable. They'll have the vote soon enough.
    Ah, Miliband's next desperate wheeze to try and win the prize.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Yet they finished with the prize - like they have more times than any other Scottish team.

    But they still seem so bitter! Must be something eating them up inside.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Also, I love how the proposed solution is to only have them in Hebrew next year! Appalling political correctness.

    I don't care what your religious parade is: you don't get to force half the population onto one side of the street, even for one day. We have to stop bending over backwards for these people.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hopisen: Sturgeon: 'no greater privilege than to seek to lead but not decision for today' Into politicometer to translate: 'It's on like donkey kong'
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014

    A couple of polling day anecdotes.

    1) My wife took an elderly lady to her polling station. She was 92 years old. And this was the first time she had voted. Imagine that, 71 years without exercising the franchise.
    2) My son, while voting in Edinburgh, saw polling station staff assisting an elderly lady. She was overcome with emotion. She wondered how she could possibly find herself voting to prevent her country from being broken up.

    I've no doubt that there will be some Yes people feeling a degree of angst and upset today. But let's not forget the angst and upset Salmond et al have caused to so many people in the run up to this referendum.

    Post-polling day anecdote:

    My neighbour has just presented me with a chilled bottle of Czech beer to show his appreciation for my having stood up to be counted. Fairly made my day! (Even better than the news of the Salmond despatch.)

    And I'm still marvelling at 58% in Moray.

    Perhaps, you could answer this question: Why didn't the YES carry what are now-a-days considered SNP territory after the 2007 and 2011 elections except Dundee ? Glasgow and North Lanarkshire would not be typical SNP territory.

    Therefore, many SNP voters either did not vote YES or virtually everyone else voted NO.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    surbiton said:

    Who will qualify as a "Scot" living in rUK ?
    Indeed, and if we use the 'might get a passport' and take the White Paper proposals as an example, grandchildren too would qualify. Which would make it a terribly blood and soil referendum. (We've discussed some of this before, somewhwer erecently, of course.)

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    But they still seem so bitter! Must be something eating them up inside.
    No bitterness here - things are looking brighter than they have for some time. Am off home for a celebratory dram or three.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:

    We have to stop bending over backwards for these people.

    In what sense has anyone bent over backwards for them? They put the posters up and they were taken down.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Why don't we give 16/17 year olds half a vote?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Plato said:

    Golly, are you PB's own Brad Pitt from Fight Club?

    Avast, Miss P, and don't be silly. We have met, remember? I was the elderly, somewhat overweight, chap with the walrus moustache and wearing a tie. Anyway I don't even know who this Brad Pitt fellow is, let alone his club.

    Else Belike.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hmmmm who is Mike paraphrasing here?

    Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
    19/09/2014 16:27
    As they say - all politial careers end in tears
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Socrates said:

    Also, I love how the proposed solution is to only have them in Hebrew next year! Appalling political correctness.

    I don't care what your religious parade is: you don't get to force half the population onto one side of the street, even for one day. We have to stop bending over backwards for these people.

    Well I suspect the idea is only people on that parade are supposed to follow the signs.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed, and if we use the 'might get a passport' and take the White Paper proposals as an example, grandchildren too would qualify. Which would make it a terribly blood and soil referendum. (We've discussed some of this before, somewhwer erecently, of course.)

    If that's too much "blood and soil" (how isn't it "soil" already?) then why would you give up passports on that basis?
  • The Catalonian Parliament has today passed a law to enable a referendum on independence to take place on 9th November. The central government has said it will ask Spain's constitutional court to declare it illegal, which it undoubtedly will. The Spanish PM has already made a television address in which he praised the vote in Scotland and the fact that it took place legally. Things are going to get nasty over there.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 758
    AndyJS said:

    Because voting is for adults and we define that as 18+.
    Smoking, getting married, and joining the forces are for kids though.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed, and if we use the 'might get a passport' and take the White Paper proposals as an example, grandchildren too would qualify. Which would make it a terribly blood and soil referendum. (We've discussed some of this before, somewhwer erecently, of course.)

    Half of UK claim to have Irish descent ? Probably true too !
  • Afternoon all.
    A massive thank you to whoever (PfP?) it was that tipped the 40-45% YES band.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited September 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed, and if we use the 'might get a passport' and take the White Paper proposals as an example, grandchildren too would qualify. Which would make it a terribly blood and soil referendum. (We've discussed some of this before, somewhwer erecently, of course.)

    It would not be at all difficult to allow people born in Scotland and resident in rUK to register for such a referendum. All you need is a British birth certificate or passport (Passports show town of birth) and proof of residence elsewhere in the UK.

    Similarly resident EU nationals can easily be excluded as they are for UK General elections and as resident UK nationals are excluded from Irish Presidential ones (but not parliamentary ones).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    Socrates said:

    If that's too much "blood and soil" (how isn't it "soil" already?) then why would you give up passports on that basis?
    Because it would be frowned on even more if you were importing people from outside the defined territory (or their votes, same thing) to have a decision on the territory. You still haven't explained to me how you get round the fundamental international norm of a separation referendum being confined to the territory in question.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @hopisen: Sturgeon: 'no greater privilege than to seek to lead but not decision for today' Into politicometer to translate: 'It's on like donkey kong'

    She could have waited a day or two. Or, was there a Blair-Brown pact here which Salmond did not renege ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,645

    The Spanish PM has already made a television address in which he praised the vote in Scotland and the fact that it took place legally.

    An interesting way to put it, given the UK vote was legal precisely because the national government decided not to stand in the way of holding a vote when one was asked for, the exact opposite of his situation.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Boris is on fine form in radio interviews today, labelling Miliband an 'invertebrate'.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Well I suspect the idea is only people on that parade are supposed to follow the signs.
    I think it's for attendees to the festival.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Good riddance to Salmond.

    He very nearly destroyed the greatest Union of nations in history with his lies, bluster, class warfare and divisive tendencies.

    But mostly because he was such a shrewd and canny operator who continually ran rings round the UK political class. A dangerous man, and the danger of independence recedes still further.
  • saddo said:

    Cameron has, more by luck than judgement, an enormous opportunity.

    In England, he becomes the English hero, standing up for English votes on England only issues. Labour have to oppose, kick into the long grass, invent new dodgy English regional bollox etc. A very bad position for Labour, will not be popular with anyone.

    In Scotland, he runs with the "Vow" at his pace, linked to English changes, which is not what Comrade Brown promised. The only direction for any anger this creates is at SLAB as there's only 1 Tory MP to rant at and its a Brown/SLAB promise anyway. Equally bad for Labour.

    Then in 2015 election, voters will support the parties that are going provide the best deal & strongest negotiators. In Scotland that's the SNP; in England, the Tories. Miliband screwed.

    Alternatively millions of ordinary people who are still feeling economically squeezed will wonder why Cameron and the Tories are devoting so much time to efforts to engineer partisan constitutional advantage instead of focusing all their energies on developing measures to improve living standards.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014
    Neil said:

    In what sense has anyone bent over backwards for them? They put the posters up and they were taken down.
    Superintendent Andy Walker, from Hackney police, said officers had spoken to the parade organisers about "potential misinterpretation" of the signs.

    He added: "They have agreed that next year they will only by written in Hebrew and will be removed more swiftly after the event."


    They shouldn't be allowed to put up such sexist commands next year.

    There's also a broader issue here: why do we not speak out more against sub-groups in our society with deeply regressive views about the role of women? Women deserve an equal role in our society, that means our whole society, not just among those of a white Christian background.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    surbiton said:

    Perhaps, you could answer this question: Why didn't the YES carry what are now-a-days considered SNP territory after the 2007 and 2011 elections except Dundee ? Glasgow and North Lanarkshire would not be typical SNP territory.

    Therefore, many SNP voters either did not vote YES or virtually everyone else voted NO.
    Discussed on and off a thread or three back - tentative consensus is that a lot of people in some areas vote SNP to run the country (and/or keep Labour out) but not necessarily for independence. Especially in the NE and rural areas.

  • Plato said:

    *APPLAUSE*

    Great post, Sir.

    Yes.

    I like the hope fear bit. Lovely stuff.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The Catalonian Parliament has today passed a law to enable a referendum on independence to take place on 9th November. The central government has said it will ask Spain's constitutional court to declare it illegal, which it undoubtedly will. The Spanish PM has already made a television address in which he praised the vote in Scotland and the fact that it took place legally. Things are going to get nasty over there.

    There is trouble ahead...........
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Carnyx said:

    Discussed on and off a thread or three back - tentative consensus is that a lot of people in some areas vote SNP to run the country (and/or keep Labour out) but not necessarily for independence. Especially in the NE and rural areas.

    Bang on. SNP got loads of votes last time for that reason.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    SeanT said:

    Interesting question, tho, can the SNP go into the next Holyrood election promising another referendum?

    Surely not. It would be a huge vote loser. So what will be their position?
    Depends on the situation. If the tripartite vow falls through, for instance? It also depends on other parties.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    If Labour is in power the "NO TORIES GOVERNING SCOTLAND" would not work.
    He calculated every aspect of the referendum in his favour, even down to the date, yet he lost by a margin of 10%.
    Personally I think it's highly unlikely Labour will win the next election, and experts like Peter Kellner agree. So the aftermath of the next general election would have increased the chances of a Yes vote since Brown wouldn't have been able to say a Labour government is just round the corner.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Socrates said:



    I think it's for attendees to the festival.
    Hm. Well, if it's some kind of event, and the poster is supposed to be informing people who are there for that event, then it's fine in theory, though obviously it needs to be a LOT clearer that that's the intent. Whoever put it together was obviously not nearly mindful enough about how something like that comes across, either willfully or through stupidity.

    If it really is trying to direct the public then it's terrible
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    Good riddance to Salmond.

    He very nearly destroyed the greatest Union of nations in history with his lies, bluster, class warfare and divisive tendencies.

    But mostly because he was such a shrewd and canny operator who continually ran rings round the UK political class. A dangerous man, and the danger of independence recedes still further.

    Well said.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    surbiton said:

    Perhaps, you could answer this question: Why didn't the YES carry what are now-a-days considered SNP territory after the 2007 and 2011 elections except Dundee ? Glasgow and North Lanarkshire would not be typical SNP territory.

    Therefore, many SNP voters either did not vote YES or virtually everyone else voted NO.
    As I explained before, the SNP promised everything to everyone, as a result some people became suspicious of their promises.
    They juggled too many balls.
    For instance, the SNP made a push in the last days towards poor Labour voters, as a result they lost wealthy former Tory voters.

    Imagine if Labour, Tories or the LD's had a target of winning 51% of the vote in a general election, they would follow the same strategy as the SNP with the same results of turning off some part of their own electorate.
  • surbiton said:

    Perhaps, you could answer this question: Why didn't the YES carry what are now-a-days considered SNP territory after the 2007 and 2011 elections except Dundee ? Glasgow and North Lanarkshire would not be typical SNP territory.

    Therefore, many SNP voters either did not vote YES or virtually everyone else voted NO.
    I think it is to do with the contrasting socio-economic profiles. I'm no expert but I suspect Dundee (and the other places that went for Yes) have a lot of DE voters who were susceptible to the Yes message for various reasons. Places like Moray, Perthshire, Angus etc are completely different - for one thing they were formerly Tory seats and retain a lot of solid unionist supporters. Clearly some of the SNP voters in these seats were unpersuaded by the economic arguments of the Yes campaign and felt it was too risky. The folk in Dundee etc probably felt they had very little to lose and hence no risk.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AllyM said:


    Bang on. SNP got loads of votes last time for that reason.

    But some of the people who voted for "not Labour, not independence" will be very wary of voting SNP again after the last 2 years
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Carnyx said:

    Because it would be frowned on even more if you were importing people from outside the defined territory (or their votes, same thing) to have a decision on the territory. You still haven't explained to me how you get round the fundamental international norm of a separation referendum being confined to the territory in question.

    We're British. We don't need to get round anything. We should do what is fair, not what is done elsewhere.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamesMills1984: if #indyref was not about the vanity of Salmond & the SNP, he'd not be resigning today, but instead be getting involved in devolution talks!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Hm. Well, if it's some kind of event, and the poster is supposed to be informing people who are there for that event, then it's fine in theory, though obviously it needs to be a LOT clearer that that's the intent. Whoever put it together was obviously not nearly mindful enough about how something like that comes across, either willfully or through stupidity.

    If it really is trying to direct the public then it's terrible
    I don't think it's even acceptable for those that are there for that event. We shouldn't indulge these regressive religious denominations that say men and women can't mix. If men and women want to voluntary walk on different sides, then fine, but they shouldn't be allowed to make it a rule for a public event.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    Alternatively millions of ordinary people who are still feeling economically squeezed will wonder why Cameron and the Tories are devoting so much time to efforts to engineer partisan constitutional advantage instead of focusing all their energies on developing measures to improve living standards.

    Who's to say they will spend that much time on it anyway?

    And in the meantime, the economic reality keeps getting better & better.

    One big lesson from the No vote is that folk don't like risk when it comes to economics. And boy oh boy is Labour a risk.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Pah @HurstLlama‌ - if you've ever looked at ZeroHedge on Twitter - his avatar is Brad Pitt in Fight Club.

    And beauty is in the eye of the beholder, never forget!

    Avast, Miss P, and don't be silly. We have met, remember? I was the elderly, somewhat overweight, chap with the walrus moustache and wearing a tie. Anyway I don't even know who this Brad Pitt fellow is, let alone his club.

    Else Belike.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Lib Dem Charlotte Henry is now retweeting all of the people who assured her Salmond would not be resigning today. Entertaining stuff
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.

    House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,606
    Scott_P said:

    But some of the people who voted for "not Labour, not independence" will be very wary of voting SNP again after the last 2 years
    Quite. But conversely the same applies to 'not SNP, not independence' for all those Labour Yes voters in Glasgow etc. when asked to vote Labour in 2016.

    Very hard to judge the likely result.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,463
    SeanT said:

    Interesting question, tho, can the SNP go into the next Holyrood election promising another referendum?

    Surely not. It would be a huge vote loser. So what will be their position?
    Garner the best deal for Scotland ?

    Slamond going right now was probably the best thing for the SNP - if he'd have hung on like you'd have said it would be worse.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Alternatively millions of ordinary people who are still feeling economically squeezed will wonder why Cameron and the Tories are devoting so much time to efforts to engineer partisan constitutional advantage instead of focusing all their energies on developing measures to improve living standards.

    Crumbs, Mr. O., that is a bit of a swing from your position this morning. This morning it was let us has have constitutional change and PR. This afternoon it is millions of ordinary people won't be happy about politicians talking about constitutional change and PR. What has brought that about?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    saddo said:

    Who's to say they will spend that much time on it anyway?

    And in the meantime, the economic reality keeps getting better & better.

    One big lesson from the No vote is that folk don't like risk when it comes to economics. And boy oh boy is Labour a risk.

    Indeed. The Conservatives big Achilles heel is on immigration. They need to set out pretty clearly how they will meet their target in the next parliament.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Miliband giving a Presser now - Radio 5.

    House of Lords reforms and devolution to the regions.

    Regional devolution was rejected just ten years ago! Is this the EU tactic - keep asking until you get the right answer?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    There is trouble ahead...........
    The catalonian gvernment should follow the Croatian model quickly, into forming their own police, courts and most importantly army, if they don't want to be crushed by the spanish.
    If catalonia votes for independence, or even if it tries to hold a vote, the spanish army will invade Barcelona triggering a second spanish civil war.
This discussion has been closed.