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Betting on a Tory poll lead in September – politicalbetting.com
Betting on a Tory poll lead in September – politicalbetting.com
I have just had a bet at about 4/1 that the Tories will have a poll lead at some stage during September.
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Winter Will Be Coming
I can't see it and even if the Tories get one by December it will be gone as the CoL crisis hits everyone.
Winter Is Coming.
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
10 Rishi Sunak 10%
Funeral expenses to be born by the state.
Any people traffickers caught to watch that speech on a loop for two days.
There will be a lot of high-profile changes in government led by the new PM, and probably a lot of legislation brought forward. The oil price is slowly falling, about 15% down in the last month, so people will start to see things move in the right direction. Ukraine also seems to be making progress in the war, which will make people optimistic.
By October though, almost everything will have flipped, as energy bills skyrocket and interest rates keep going up. It’s going to be a really terrible winter for an awful lot of people.
https://chronotrains-eu.vercel.app/
Easy for me to say, I guess, since I'll be living with the in-laws this winter, so sharing the utility bills. And it's even milder in Ireland.
And probably the Russians.
How much is Jericho 3? Asking for a friend.
Whilst the Tories spend the summer attacking each other, nobody is running the government and the crises we face are getting worse. Which means that the Trusster will enter Downing Street with a mountain of "oh fuck" problems that need her immediate attention. And she has neither the tools nor the inclination to do anything about them.
Even Labour coming under attack from the hard left loons can't damage the poll lead. Which I think is why Starmer is just brushing off the mouth foam from the likes of Owen Jones.
Not sure I can price this.
But if I did have to guess 4-1 may around where I'd land. So no bet for me at this stage.
Also. Isn't there the possibility that any bounce may come later?
The country at large doesn't know Liz Truss well. And she doesn't always give off the best first impression.
Maybe a few weeks of populist policies and relentless propaganda will take time?
17p/L more at a shell service station within a mile. Crazy difference.
Shop around, people.
"UK undoubtedly has some beautiful parts but mainly in protected National Park areas. Whereas France is 75% beautiful and 25% rough/nondescript the UK (is probably 25% beautiful and 75% rough/nondescript. As we are so overcrowded the beautiful areas tend to be overrun with people whereas in France you can drive for miles in glorious unspoilt countryside."
++++
I wouldn't demur with any of that. This is why I put France at #1 and the UK at #9. Plus the French climate is superior (for now) and their urbanism less spoiled
But the UK is still beautiful in parts, and splendidly varied, with an often-glorious coastline and some divine cityscapes - Cambridge! - and on a world ranking is right up there. It's just not as impressive as France, but France is number 1
Which brings us to the bigger point. European countries crowd the top spots of "Most Beautiful Countries", which is why Europe, as a whole, gets more tourists than anywhere on earth. The tourists aren't dumb
There are some natural landscapes that, individually, are more breath-taking than anywhere in Europe - the Antarctic Peninsula for sure, perhaps the wilds of the American West, Greenland, Ethiopia, bits of Oz, central Asia, NZ (apparently, haven't been), and so on, but for overall beauty, Europe sweeps the prizes
The Telegraph list is bonkers, and is merely designed to stir up arguments. Which it has done. So well done that editor
On Ukraine we will have a decent idea by September whether Ukraine have managed to turn the tide on the course of the war. That might have more impact on US politics than British, though. Biden's failure over Afghanistan was when it first started going badly wrong for his Presidency, and Americans sure like supporting the winning side a whole lot more than the alternative.
Dan Roan (BBC News Sports Editor) said yesterday that the Commonwealth Games Opening Ceremony would get a global TV audience of 1 billion - ie over 12% of the world's population.
Well the BARB rating for last night was 4.5m - under 7% of the UK population.
If it only got 7% in the UK where the event is being held, it certainly couldn't have got 12% worldwide given most of the world isn't even in the Commonwealth - the TV audience in China and the US must have been effectively zero (*).
Saying that it would get 1 billion is totally and utterly absurd and destroys any pretence at serious journalism.
I would be surprised if it even got close to 100m.
(*) A useful point of reference - the Wimbledon Mens Final shown which is shown live in the US on ESPN got between 2m and 3m - under 1% of the US population.
If the Conservatives don't get a lead this autumn, when?
@StuartDickson is like the Elephant Man of Scottish Anglophobia. What is merely an unsightly pimple on the face of @Theuniondivvie, or a large hairy wart on the otherwise kindly face of @malcolmg, is a grotesque facial tumour on @StuartDickson, so bad he can barely see past it with his tiny, haunted, fearful, pig-like little eyes
I’m not saying you’re wrong (I don’t know), but it certainly belies its reputation.
I mean, there are people who find London aesthetically pleasing. As it happens, I don't, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a few impressive buildings in among the squalor.
France also has both a Northern (rolling pastures) and a Southern (cypress trees and sand) zone, and indeed Alps.
And better preserved towns and villages.
And it’s much bigger.
If you look at a map though, quite a bit of England is either National Park or AONB.
And there’s more coastline. England could probably do more with its coastline.
Three nations that have won a hockey silver and a squash bronze between them in the whole history of sport.
I do think we have some beautiful small towns and cities, though, like Durham, so beauty is not all about empty countryside.
I meant it might not be September. Could be October before the real bounce comes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vale_of_Rheidol_Railway
Beds is stony and largely flat; it’s the on-ramp to the Midlands.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
3h
It's an illustration of how poor political betting markets can be that [Sunak] was ever seen as favourite.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1552972340992016384
eg Whipsnade Zoo. The views from there are lovely: across the rolling hills. Indeed I'd go so far as to say: beautiful. In a quiet, Bedfordshire way
LOL at the Scot Nat post below about England - proper old school "my country's prettier than yours" jingoism.
Go to Canada. You are vanishingly unlikely to be attacked by a bear. They keep their distance from humans. And they can smell you from a long way off. You'd have to be seriously trying to harass one with cubs.
You're far more statistically likely to be killed by a dog there.
https://petkeen.com/canada-bear-attack-statistics/#:~:text=Surprisingly, there are very few,a bear attack in Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-Ax3weNyK8
A beautiful little village, just round the corner from the Shuttleworth Collection. Lots of lovely country walks in the surrounding area.
DUNSTABLE: YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE
Glasgow 2014 - average 7.6m, peak over 9m
Birmingham 2022 - average 4.5m, peak 5.3m
(Source: Digital Spy Ratings Thread)
So average and peak both down over 40%.
Someone with time on their hands should collate the ratings from major countries and make formal complaint to OFCOM.
It's childish primary school standard spin - the BBC literally just making stuff up to promote their content.
My experience consists entirely of avoiding the Delice de France kiosk at Luton Airport.
See, and weep:
The London Olympics 2012 opening ceremony was said to have a TV audience of 900 million, including 27 million in the UK.
So the UK audience was one-sixth of 2012 levels, and fair to assume it would be zero outside the Commonwealth, so my best guess rough estimate would be a global audience of 50 million.
U.S. Embassy London
@USAinUK
United States government organization
Oh, the cheek from our own office Russo! This is no time for diplomacy. Let’s go, @Lionesses
⚽️
@alessiarusso7
#Lionesses #WEURO2022 #ENG #GER
https://twitter.com/USAinUK/status/1552937908490964992
https://www.petrolprices.com/
I forgot to mention SUFFOLK
For lush rolling countryside - not majestic or jaw-dropping or FUCK IT'S ANTARCTICA - but deeply and aesthetically pleasing, parts of Suffolk are hard to beat. Amazing medieval villages, too
It's the villages and hills that are charming.
A kind of amateur John Soane Museum.
Ring any bells? Does it still exist?
Old Warden is a lovely place to stay in summer. I went there for a wedding (held on the grounds of the Shuttleworth Collection). Lovely country walks all around, unspoilt tiny village. The B & B in the village is really nice and the local pub is good as well.
OK, time for a haircut. Later
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3578887-the-memo-no-really-what-if-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-runs-for-president/
I spent too much of the late ‘90s and early 2000s in the little pub that was just about all that was left of the old High St, among many other watering holes in Bracknell and Wokingham. Looking at the map today, that little pub is an American steakhouse
I guess Wiltshire must be quite high due to Stonehenge (and proximity to London)
Big Sur
San Francisco (on a sunny day)
Lake Tahoe
Park City
And that's just a tiny part of the South West corner of the US.
He is right, but why would Truss agree? There is no upside to being interviewed by Andrew Neil. She's winning. Why put that at risk?