I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Can you clarify which neo-Nazis you are talking about?
I wonder if we might have to go to war with Russia
The easy way out for us is for Ukraine to defeat the Russians with only our money and equipment as support, but we're so scared of the Russians that we won't even provide Ukraine with all the weapons we could provide, and this necessarily makes a Ukrainian victory slower, more difficult and less certain.
Russia is violating every norm of civilised society. It is only fear that holds us back, and the Russians see that fear and it emboldens them. We are allowing this evil to flourish.
But are the Russians really that scary? Will they nuke us if we fight alongside Ukraine to defend its territory and people?
No they are not and they will not. They retreated from Kyiv and the North of Ukraine when defeated. They did not turn to nuclear weapons. They threatened a response if Finland and Sweden sought to join NATO, but have done nothing when those countries took that step.
Russia is weak. If we show greater resolve over Ukraine we can force the Russians to back down again and withdraw to their borders. Give them two weeks to retreat or we start to bomb the shit out of their air defence and other long-range assets. Give them another two weeks and we send NATO ground troops to follow up the air campaign and push the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Fight the Russians. Defeat them. Stop the fighting by winning and prevent the Russians from inflicting more cruelty and suffering on another country. Finish the job the Ukrainians have started and win the war.
If Putin was faced with a choice of nuclear weapons or military defeat and humiliation by NATO I have no doubt he would use nuclear weapons.
That is why we should stick to military supplies for Ukraine but not ground troops and air strikes unless NATO nations themselves face invasion (which I think is unlikely, even Putin knows how far he can push it)
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Can you clarify which neo-Nazis you are talking about?
Surely @MrEd, anyone who opposes the Russians in Ukraine is - by definition - a neo-Nazi.
It says so right here on page 7 of the official "spread Russian propaganda" manual.
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Can you clarify which neo-Nazis you are talking about?
Surely @MrEd, anyone who opposes the Russians in Ukraine is - by definition - a neo-Nazi.
It says so right here on page 7 of the official "spread Russian propaganda" manual.
I know @rcs1000. I must go and polish my jackboots.
I'm still going with Ukraine forced to accept territorial concessions, in the face of the US deciding it isn't loving the war as much as it thought it would. Hopefully before Europe freezes its tits off.
That doesn't end the war. It only pauses it until Russia is ready for round 3.
Yep.
The answer is surely to keep doing what we’re doing, but more so, and with more crippling sanctions, until Russia is no longer a threat to anyone.
The impact of just a few HIMARS shows what some well chosen weapons and a bit of cash can do. Just need to get Germany to embrace nuclear, everyone build a shit load of wind turbines and solar panels, ramp up those LNG terminals and insulate our houses properly, and in the meantime turn off the remaining gas taps.
Russia has to be absolutely defeated now. Truss is right. What's the point of human civilisation if we allow this evil to prosper?
Slowly degrade this Nazi rogue state until Russians are eating their own faeces
Nothing happens to human civilisation when we allow evil to prosper - we've been prostrate before Saudi Arabia for decades, and they cut people up before breakfast. They have also fomented terror on UK soil, and continue to fund dangerous salafism within UK Mosques, which is a good deal more than Uncle Vlad has done. Apparently they are our sort of blood soaked autocracy though.
I despise Saudi Arabian Islamism. I've been banned from this site for my anger on this point. I emphasise IslamISM not Islam
But let us deal with first things first: the evil that menaces the entire world right now: from their energy blackmail to their rape-war to their castration of Ukrainians, livestreamed, with Stanley knives
Islamism is evil, and must be confronted, but it does not threaten the world economy with dire poverty and civil strife this coming winter. Putin's Russia does. It is Hitler's Germany, with a Slavic face. Putin's Russia must be crushed. I see no other way
Regarding rape, because accuracy is important, the sacked Ukrainian human rights ombudsman is on record as saying that she made no attempt to verify any of the rape claims (made via telephone hotline) that she publicised around the world, and that indeed it was outside of her responsibilities to do so. NGOs later visited to comfort the afflicted and found no victims. There could have been rapes, but if we can't verify them, it shouldn't go down in the books as you've described it.
As for threatening, it isn't Russia who is threatening dire poverty and civil strife, that is the result of Western sanctions. They may or may not be justified, but they are a conscious policy decision, a choice made by our elected leaders. Place the responsibility where it belongs.
Here's a report from Human Rights Watch which mentions a Russian rape. A quick Google also find references to rape by Russian soldiers from the UN and other NGOs.
How can you possibly claim that there's no evidence of rape by Russian soldiers? That's a grotesque level of denial of the depravity perpetrated by the Russians. You. Are. A. Disgrace.
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Little hint for your future efforts, no one in the Anglosphere naturally says "on the other side of the paper" in the sense of "let's talk about the opposing argument". Literally: no one
I'm interested in hearing about food customs and traditions (both historic & continuing) focusing on East Lancashire and Calderdale. Any favourite foods from childhood? Dishes you think might be unique to the area? Mysteries? I'll start w. Dock Pudding... any shares appreciated x
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
I wonder if we might have to go to war with Russia
The easy way out for us is for Ukraine to defeat the Russians with only our money and equipment as support, but we're so scared of the Russians that we won't even provide Ukraine with all the weapons we could provide, and this necessarily makes a Ukrainian victory slower, more difficult and less certain.
Russia is violating every norm of civilised society. It is only fear that holds us back, and the Russians see that fear and it emboldens them. We are allowing this evil to flourish.
But are the Russians really that scary? Will they nuke us if we fight alongside Ukraine to defend its territory and people?
No they are not and they will not. They retreated from Kyiv and the North of Ukraine when defeated. They did not turn to nuclear weapons. They threatened a response if Finland and Sweden sought to join NATO, but have done nothing when those countries took that step.
Russia is weak. If we show greater resolve over Ukraine we can force the Russians to back down again and withdraw to their borders. Give them two weeks to retreat or we start to bomb the shit out of their air defence and other long-range assets. Give them another two weeks and we send NATO ground troops to follow up the air campaign and push the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Fight the Russians. Defeat them. Stop the fighting by winning and prevent the Russians from inflicting more cruelty and suffering on another country. Finish the job the Ukrainians have started and win the war.
If Putin was faced with a choice of nuclear weapons or military defeat and humiliation by NATO I have no doubt he would use nuclear weapons.
That is why we should stick to military supplies for Ukraine but not ground troops and air strikes unless NATO nations themselves face invasion (which I think is unlikely, even Putin knows how far he can push it)
I suppose a compromise position would be to move NATO logistics, anti-air and training camps into Western Ukraine, perhaps the border with Belarus, to free up Ukrainian soldiers for the eastern fronts.
Probably a stupid idea, not endorsing it. But if I was at the MOD that's the kind of options I would laying out.
I wonder if we might have to go to war with Russia
The easy way out for us is for Ukraine to defeat the Russians with only our money and equipment as support, but we're so scared of the Russians that we won't even provide Ukraine with all the weapons we could provide, and this necessarily makes a Ukrainian victory slower, more difficult and less certain.
Russia is violating every norm of civilised society. It is only fear that holds us back, and the Russians see that fear and it emboldens them. We are allowing this evil to flourish.
But are the Russians really that scary? Will they nuke us if we fight alongside Ukraine to defend its territory and people?
No they are not and they will not. They retreated from Kyiv and the North of Ukraine when defeated. They did not turn to nuclear weapons. They threatened a response if Finland and Sweden sought to join NATO, but have done nothing when those countries took that step.
Russia is weak. If we show greater resolve over Ukraine we can force the Russians to back down again and withdraw to their borders. Give them two weeks to retreat or we start to bomb the shit out of their air defence and other long-range assets. Give them another two weeks and we send NATO ground troops to follow up the air campaign and push the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Fight the Russians. Defeat them. Stop the fighting by winning and prevent the Russians from inflicting more cruelty and suffering on another country. Finish the job the Ukrainians have started and win the war.
If Putin was faced with a choice of nuclear weapons or military defeat and humiliation by NATO I have no doubt he would use nuclear weapons.
That is why we should stick to military supplies for Ukraine but not ground troops and air strikes unless NATO nations themselves face invasion (which I think is unlikely, even Putin knows how far he can push it)
I suppose a compromise position would be to move NATO logistics, anti-air and training camps into Western Ukraine, perhaps the border with Belarus, to free up Ukrainian soldiers for the eastern fronts.
Probably a stupid idea, not endorsing it. But if I was at the MOD that's the kind of options I would laying out.
Also act as a "poison pill". I think the lesson for future conflicts is to ignore all the @Luckyguy1983 types, "Russia feels under threat waah waah", and just get NATO troops into the country under threat ASAP. Only way to stop Putin.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
There is some evidence many white boys prefer apprenticeships to university, in terms of GCSE results whites are about mid table.
However whatever measure you look at, university attendance, GCSE results or average earnings it is Chinese and Indian Britons leading the way, reflecting too the shift in the global economy
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
Now working class white boys may not be getting to university and their life chances limited, but it is not as a result of "woke". There are probably a number of reasons, perhaps the underfunding of state education is a crucial one.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
I wonder if we might have to go to war with Russia
The easy way out for us is for Ukraine to defeat the Russians with only our money and equipment as support, but we're so scared of the Russians that we won't even provide Ukraine with all the weapons we could provide, and this necessarily makes a Ukrainian victory slower, more difficult and less certain.
Russia is violating every norm of civilised society. It is only fear that holds us back, and the Russians see that fear and it emboldens them. We are allowing this evil to flourish.
But are the Russians really that scary? Will they nuke us if we fight alongside Ukraine to defend its territory and people?
No they are not and they will not. They retreated from Kyiv and the North of Ukraine when defeated. They did not turn to nuclear weapons. They threatened a response if Finland and Sweden sought to join NATO, but have done nothing when those countries took that step.
Russia is weak. If we show greater resolve over Ukraine we can force the Russians to back down again and withdraw to their borders. Give them two weeks to retreat or we start to bomb the shit out of their air defence and other long-range assets. Give them another two weeks and we send NATO ground troops to follow up the air campaign and push the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Fight the Russians. Defeat them. Stop the fighting by winning and prevent the Russians from inflicting more cruelty and suffering on another country. Finish the job the Ukrainians have started and win the war.
If Putin was faced with a choice of nuclear weapons or military defeat and humiliation by NATO I have no doubt he would use nuclear weapons.
That is why we should stick to military supplies for Ukraine but not ground troops and air strikes unless NATO nations themselves face invasion (which I think is unlikely, even Putin knows how far he can push it)
I think you are wrong. The reason is that Putin has a way out that avoids nuclear annihilation. He withdraws his surviving forces from Ukraine. The fighting ends, and he gets to lick his wounds and plot his revenge.
NATO would not be aiming for regime change, or occupation of Moscow, so Putin gets to walk away and live to fight another day. He will fold because, ultimately, he recognises that something is better than nothing.
And, in terms of humiliation, we're actually doing him a favour by joining the war. Being defeated by Ukraine would be a humiliation. Being defeated by NATO was what he's spent decades warning the Russian people to expect, and preventing the destruction of Russia proper a great victory.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
Now working class white boys may not be getting to university and their life chances limited, but it is not as a result of "woke". There are probably a number of reasons, perhaps the underfunding of state education is a crucial one.
There is a culture of not valuing education amongst some white working class families. Or there was when I went to a 1970s Birmingham comprehensive.
Bit of a generalisation but then again in general that was the feeling I got. These kids had absolutely no interest in learning or any idea of the possible shape of their futures.
A factor though was so many of them seemed to have gone through primary school without learning the basics of reading and writing. If there was a systemic failure it was at that end of the system.
So - a memory I have is enduring French lessons at the age of say 12 or 13 with a bunch of fellow kids who could not command or write even the most basic of english. What the feck was the point?
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Though plenty of universities, including Oxbridge offer scholarships particularly for BME pupils for example but not for bright pupils from white working class backgrounds
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
Now working class white boys may not be getting to university and their life chances limited, but it is not as a result of "woke". There are probably a number of reasons, perhaps the underfunding of state education is a crucial one.
They are educated in the same state school classrooms as BME pupils, yet how much funding is targeted specifically at underperforming white working class pupils?
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Though plenty of top universities, including Oxbridge offer scholarships particularly for BME pupils for example but not for bright pupils from white working class backgrounds
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Wilkommen, tovarisch
An interestingly detailed comment, for your first comment
It must be mildly flattering for OGH and Robert and TSE that we seem to attract such attention.
I mean why?
Is it cos we can change the betting markets and so some news commentators might change their columns based on the latest odds?
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Though plenty of universities, including Oxbridge offer scholarships particularly for BME pupils for example but not for bright pupils from white working class backgrounds
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Wilkommen, tovarisch
An interestingly detailed comment, for your first comment
It must be mildly flattering for OGH and Robert and TSE that we seem to attract such attention.
I mean why?
Is it cos we can change the betting markets and so some news commentators might change their columns based on the latest odds?
not many websites have postings from past/present/future members of parliament
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Though plenty of top universities, including Oxbridge offer scholarships particularly for BME pupils for example but not for bright pupils from white working class backgrounds
Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying there is not a problem. I think there is. But the stats he uses to further his argument don't.
The much bigger elephant in the room is why 40% of Chinese families got their kids to Russell Group?
Massive Chinese work ethic?
Relatively small sample?
Go and take a look at the ethnic balance of any Oxford private school. Completely unremarked, the East Asian percentage is now massive. 40%ish in some schools.
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Wilkommen, tovarisch
An interestingly detailed comment, for your first comment
I'm not a post a witty one-liner to the internet kind of guy. That's not in my skillset.
@MrEd - Sure - the Azov Regiment for starters, with their wolf's angel and stuff. Some soldiers hear about atrocities they believe were committed by the other side, and this then makes them feel justified in committing atrocities. Real atrocities find that most of their impact then comes through their use as propaganda. Some general policies are adopted and some specific actions are carried out with precisely that in mind. The usual purpose of surgical gloves is to protect patients. Somehow I doubt that's what the putative Kadyrovite had in mind in this instance. Problems arising when large numbers of people go f***ing psycho aren't an issue that's high up on either side's agenda.
When it's observed that the notion that A "imposes sanctions" on B (good) whereas B "weaponises trade" with A (bad) is wholly propagandistic, there may be some who don't get it, and who really believe themselves when they scream "Crimethinker!" and "Enemy saboteur". But whilst they may be skilled at gunslinging or logistics you wouldn't want them handling the PW.
Incidentally regarding the AR you have to wonder whether Putin will end up becoming mates with some of them. He managed something similar with the Kadyrovites in a previous war.
Tom Tugendhat has endorsed Liz Truss for Tory leadership
He writes in The Times that her tax cuts are based on 'true conservative principles' & that she can unite party
Significant as Tugendhat is popular with Tory members & a senior figure in the One Nation group
Or 'Tom Tugendhat has endorsed Liz Truss in a bid to become Foreign Secretary'
It's a move of weakness - he's seen the way the wind is blowing and is trying to ingratiate himself with the new leader and Prime Minister. It's so transparent it's embarrassing.
Tugendhat has debased himself and undermined his future leadership potential by this act of political cowardice.
Wallace ditto. Sitting above the fray was fine.
I would argue that the Truss camp already had both Wallace's and Tugendhat's endorsements in the bag & were waiting for the right time to deploy them.
With the postal ballots just about to be sent out, the Truss camp presumably feels this is the right time for maximum impact.
When will most of the Tory leadership election ballot papers plop onto members' doormats?
And how will the sendout be ordered - alphabetically, by region, or what? Is there an intermediate stage, where area officials can sit on batches and delay delivery for a few days if they wish?
My view is still:
* best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt; * worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss; * best at the job: Rishi Sunak.
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
Can you clarify which neo-Nazis you are talking about?
The fact that he refers to “the” Ukraine and “disputed regions” makes it clear which side he is on.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Are the numbers controlled for parental wealth though. I suspect the white figures or disproportionately weight to private schools, so the wwc does relatively poorly.
I wonder if Rishi Sunak is starting to regret not donating 9 of his 137 supporters to Penny Mordaunt to keep her ahead of Liz Truss.
He's definitely regretting it now.
I think he got scared by some of the earlier polls that showed Mordaunt way ahead. e.g. the 12-13 July YouGov for all candidates which had Mordaunt on 27%, Badenoch on 15% & then Sunak & Truss both on 13%.
I wonder if Rishi Sunak is starting to regret not donating 9 of his 137 supporters to Penny Mordaunt to keep her ahead of Liz Truss.
He's definitely regretting it now.
I think he got scared by some of the earlier polls that showed Mordaunt way ahead. e.g. the 12-13 July YouGov for all candidates which had Mordaunt on 27%, Badenoch on 15% & then Sunak & Truss both on 13%.
It was obvious Sunak was going to lose with the membership, regardless of his opponent.
I am very pissed off with the MPs that we weren't given an effective choice of who we were going to get as PM.
I wonder if Rishi Sunak is starting to regret not donating 9 of his 137 supporters to Penny Mordaunt to keep her ahead of Liz Truss.
He's definitely regretting it now.
I think he got scared by some of the earlier polls that showed Mordaunt way ahead. e.g. the 12-13 July YouGov for all candidates which had Mordaunt on 27%, Badenoch on 15% & then Sunak & Truss both on 13%.
It was obvious Sunak was going to lose with the membership, regardless of his opponent.
I am very pissed off with the MPs that we weren't given an effective choice of who we were going to get as PM.
The weird thing for me is basically Boris Johnson is being kicked out in disgrace, but the two to replace him are his FS and his Chancellor.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Are the numbers controlled for parental wealth though. I suspect the white figures or disproportionately weight to private schools, so the wwc does relatively poorly.
But I’ve not seen the underlying data
The real interesting statistic there is why nearly half of British Chinese families offspring manage to make it to Russell Group universities, a level four times greater than any other ethnic background. Another is that the numbers for admissions from black and white families are virtually identical.
That suggests whatever is going doesn't have much to do with racism, and nor is Britain 'institutionally racist'.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Stats presented for Black, but then he says Black African.
AIUI, there is quite a difference between Black Caribbean and Black African populations in terms of educational attainment.
And this is why the government is quite forceful about saying that the black population aren't especially discriminated against.
On these blessed isles Putin’s Russia still feels a distant menace. One can only imagine how that video (which I will not be watching) makes you feel if you live in a bordering nation @Cicero
When will most of the Tory leadership election ballot papers plop onto members' doormats?
And how will the sendout be ordered - alphabetically, by region, or what? Is there an intermediate stage, where area officials can sit on batches and delay delivery for a few days if they wish?
My view is still:
* best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt; * worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss; * best at the job: Rishi Sunak.
It's pretty obvious that the Tories are going to unite around Truss. That would never have happened under Sunak, which would have made his job as PM almost impossible. The ERG would never, ever have accepted him. Tugenhadt's endorsement of her shows that she will not get similar pushback from what is left of the more moderate branch. So, the party is going to be putting all its eggs in the populist, English nationalist, basket.
It will be very interesting to see whether Truss retains Suella Braverman as Attorney General. If she does - and why wouldn't she? - the message will be a very clear one:
"The Attorney General has banned government lawyers from telling ministers that their policies are unlawful, The Telegraph can reveal."
Braverman represents a danger to Parliamentary democracy every bit as grave as the one that would have been posed had Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray walked into Downing Street under a Jeremy Corbyn premiership.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Stats presented for Black, but then he says Black African.
AIUI, there is quite a difference between Black Caribbean and Black African populations in terms of educational attainment.
And this is why the government is quite forceful about saying that the black population aren't especially discriminated against.
Here's what no-one is talking about (and probably never will): the nuclear family is crucial.
British Chinese families have very tight knit family structures, and highly ambitious parents.
Black Africans are deeply conservative and Christian and tend to marry young and form strong family units. Unfortunately, single parenthood is far more common amongst Black Caribbean families, and also a problem amongst in some WWC communities, and very much an issue with Travellers.
Family. Marriage. It's about 100 times more important for a child's emotional stability and educational attainment than anything else, however unfashionable it may be to say so.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Stats presented for Black, but then he says Black African.
AIUI, there is quite a difference between Black Caribbean and Black African populations in terms of educational attainment.
And this is why the government is quite forceful about saying that the black population aren't especially discriminated against.
Here's what no-one is talking about (and probably never will): the nuclear family is crucial.
British Chinese families have very tight knit family structures, and highly ambitious parents.
Black Africans are deeply conservative and Christian and tend to marry young and form strong family units. Unfortunately, single parenthood is far more common amongst Black Caribbean families, and also a problem amongst in some WWC communities, and very much an issue with Travellers.
Family. Marriage. It's about 100 times more important for a child's emotional stability and educational attainment than anything else, however unfashionable it may be to say so.
David Lammy talks eloquently and powerfully on the topics facing many black families, including the problems with absent fathers.
I'm still going with Ukraine forced to accept territorial concessions, in the face of the US deciding it isn't loving the war as much as it thought it would. Hopefully before Europe freezes its tits off.
Not a chance. Everyone knows what that means. And everyone knows Putin is a cunt. So it isn't going to happen.
Ok, no peace deals that save thousands of lives and billions of pounds worth of property with nasty people - Got it. Any other gems of statecraft?
Yes. You don't do deals with murderous dictators who will not respect the international norms. We should have learned that with Hitler. Putin is the new Hitler and the Russians - unfortunately - are as bad as the Germans were in the 1930s / 1940s.
The only language Putin understands is strength. Arm Ukraine to the hilt, send them all the western equipment they need and, if Russia threatens nuclear attacks, make it clear we will strike back. Putin is a coward, he shit his pants if he thinks the West will hit Russia hard.
So where does Stalin fit in?
Are we talking 1939 or 1941?
Take your pick. You might also consider where Chairman Mao fits in with your 'nice people only or it's war' theory.
The UK and France were ready to defend Finland in 1939-40. We only didn't because the war ended before we could send help. Otherwise, we would have been up against the Russkis.
Tell me which country Mao invaded post-the deal with Nixon.
Putin only understands strength. We tried this compromise shit in 2014 and he came back for more. Russia needs to feel the pain and hard. It already is but more is needed.
Vietnam.
Oddly, the Americans were not mad keen to help the Vietnamese…
I'm interested in hearing about food customs and traditions (both historic & continuing) focusing on East Lancashire and Calderdale. Any favourite foods from childhood? Dishes you think might be unique to the area? Mysteries? I'll start w. Dock Pudding... any shares appreciated x
I wonder if Rishi Sunak is starting to regret not donating 9 of his 137 supporters to Penny Mordaunt to keep her ahead of Liz Truss.
He's definitely regretting it now.
I think he got scared by some of the earlier polls that showed Mordaunt way ahead. e.g. the 12-13 July YouGov for all candidates which had Mordaunt on 27%, Badenoch on 15% & then Sunak & Truss both on 13%.
It was obvious Sunak was going to lose with the membership, regardless of his opponent.
I am very pissed off with the MPs that we weren't given an effective choice of who we were going to get as PM.
Have just seen a friend on Twitter posting screen grabs from his energy company. Current duel fuel tariff an insane £3,239 a year. The new deal on offer a positively bonkers £6,087 a year.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
Now working class white boys may not be getting to university and their life chances limited, but it is not as a result of "woke". There are probably a number of reasons, perhaps the underfunding of state education is a crucial one.
They are educated in the same state school classrooms as BME pupils, yet how much funding is targeted specifically at underperforming white working class pupils?
When will most of the Tory leadership election ballot papers plop onto members' doormats?
And how will the sendout be ordered - alphabetically, by region, or what? Is there an intermediate stage, where area officials can sit on batches and delay delivery for a few days if they wish?
My view is still:
* best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt; * worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss; * best at the job: Rishi Sunak.
It's pretty obvious that the Tories are going to unite around Truss. That would never have happened under Sunak, which would have made his job as PM almost impossible. The ERG would never, ever have accepted him. Tugenhadt's endorsement of her shows that she will not get similar pushback from what is left of the more moderate branch. So, the party is going to be putting all its eggs in the populist, English nationalist, basket.
It will be very interesting to see whether Truss retains Suella Braverman as Attorney General. If she does - and why wouldn't she? - the message will be a very clear one:
"The Attorney General has banned government lawyers from telling ministers that their policies are unlawful, The Telegraph can reveal."
Braverman represents a danger to Parliamentary democracy every bit as grave as the one that would have been posed had Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray walked into Downing Street under a Jeremy Corbyn premiership.
Perhaps we should try and get her struck from the bar, on the basis that she had tried to subvert the law? That would disqualify her as AG.
When will most of the Tory leadership election ballot papers plop onto members' doormats?
And how will the sendout be ordered - alphabetically, by region, or what? Is there an intermediate stage, where area officials can sit on batches and delay delivery for a few days if they wish?
My view is still:
* best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt; * worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss; * best at the job: Rishi Sunak.
It's pretty obvious that the Tories are going to unite around Truss. That would never have happened under Sunak, which would have made his job as PM almost impossible. The ERG would never, ever have accepted him. Tugenhadt's endorsement of her shows that she will not get similar pushback from what is left of the more moderate branch. So, the party is going to be putting all its eggs in the populist, English nationalist, basket.
It will be very interesting to see whether Truss retains Suella Braverman as Attorney General. If she does - and why wouldn't she? - the message will be a very clear one:
"The Attorney General has banned government lawyers from telling ministers that their policies are unlawful, The Telegraph can reveal."
Braverman represents a danger to Parliamentary democracy every bit as grave as the one that would have been posed had Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray walked into Downing Street under a Jeremy Corbyn premiership.
Perhaps we should try and get her struck from the bar, on the basis that she had tried to subvert the law? That would disqualify her as AG.
I’m sure Jolyon Maugham would be up for that…
Good. How can she bar lawyers from giving their legal opinion because she finds it politically difficult? They are lawyers, not politicians.
Have just seen a friend on Twitter posting screen grabs from his energy company. Current duel fuel tariff an insane £3,239 a year. The new deal on offer a positively bonkers £6,087 a year.
There will be riots.
I saw the same tweet. The tweeter wondered why there weren’t riots already
This is why I was saying yesterday this woke stuff precious few people care about and really fades into insignificance compared to the cost of living crisis.
Tom Tugendhat has endorsed Liz Truss for Tory leadership
He writes in The Times that her tax cuts are based on 'true conservative principles' & that she can unite party
Significant as Tugendhat is popular with Tory members & a senior figure in the One Nation group
Or 'Tom Tugendhat has endorsed Liz Truss in a bid to become Foreign Secretary'
It's a move of weakness - he's seen the way the wind is blowing and is trying to ingratiate himself with the new leader and Prime Minister. It's so transparent it's embarrassing.
Tugendhat has debased himself and undermined his future leadership potential by this act of political cowardice.
Wallace ditto. Sitting above the fray was fine.
I would argue that the Truss camp already had both Wallace's and Tugendhat's endorsements in the bag & were waiting for the right time to deploy them.
With the postal ballots just about to be sent out, the Truss camp presumably feels this is the right time for maximum impact.
I presume next week Badenoch will pen an article in the Telegraph about how wonderful Truss is.
I'm still going with Ukraine forced to accept territorial concessions, in the face of the US deciding it isn't loving the war as much as it thought it would. Hopefully before Europe freezes its tits off.
Not a chance. Everyone knows what that means. And everyone knows Putin is a cunt. So it isn't going to happen.
Ok, no peace deals that save thousands of lives and billions of pounds worth of property with nasty people - Got it. Any other gems of statecraft?
Yes. You don't do deals with murderous dictators who will not respect the international norms. We should have learned that with Hitler. Putin is the new Hitler and the Russians - unfortunately - are as bad as the Germans were in the 1930s / 1940s.
The only language Putin understands is strength. Arm Ukraine to the hilt, send them all the western equipment they need and, if Russia threatens nuclear attacks, make it clear we will strike back. Putin is a coward, he shit his pants if he thinks the West will hit Russia hard.
So where does Stalin fit in?
Are we talking 1939 or 1941?
Take your pick. You might also consider where Chairman Mao fits in with your 'nice people only or it's war' theory.
The UK and France were ready to defend Finland in 1939-40. We only didn't because the war ended before we could send help. Otherwise, we would have been up against the Russkis.
Tell me which country Mao invaded post-the deal with Nixon.
Putin only understands strength. We tried this compromise shit in 2014 and he came back for more. Russia needs to feel the pain and hard. It already is but more is needed.
Re the winter war of 1939-40 : Were the allies planning to really help Finland, or just advance their own interests, namely stopping Swedish exports of iron ore to Germany? Source: World World 2 week by week series by Indy Neidell and Time Ghost Army (eg. part 28 and 24).
I am really glad that Ukraine is getting real help.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Hmm. No. IMO you dismiss Goodwin too easily.
He does not make a direct snapshot black / white comparison in terms of numbers, but rather points to family stability as a reason for a sea change in attendance from black families.
Your quote is conflated from two halves 6 paras apart - not "within a paragraph".
I think his comparison is with previous performance of children from black families.
His argument is:
1 - There is a belief that power structures hold back black students. 2 - However there has been a national drive to make intakes 'more diverse'. 3 - Now for the first time children from white families are the least likely (apart from Roma?) to attend top universities. (ie change over time) 4 - (Your first para quote) 5 - This is to be celebrated, and is a success story. 6 - Efforts to increase diversity are commendable in some ways, but are not the whole story, and we also need to look at culture within communities (which we have been discussing). 7 - (Your second para quote). Here he does not compare black vs white families. 8 - Then contrasts stability of black African families with white working class family breakdown. (Imo that's probably not detailed enough, as there are trends the other way in eg some black urban communities, single parent families, gangs etc. But overall it stands.). 9 - Then moves on to culture in Universities - essentially looping back to point 1 for the rest of the piece.
The chart which should be in the article is something like this one that shows children from black families performing far better in reaching university, and relative to children from white families over 15 years, and supports his point 1. This is all Uni, not Russell Group. It marks a move of children from black families into degree-professions.
I'm still going with Ukraine forced to accept territorial concessions, in the face of the US deciding it isn't loving the war as much as it thought it would. Hopefully before Europe freezes its tits off.
Not a chance. Everyone knows what that means. And everyone knows Putin is a cunt. So it isn't going to happen.
Ok, no peace deals that save thousands of lives and billions of pounds worth of property with nasty people - Got it. Any other gems of statecraft?
Yes. You don't do deals with murderous dictators who will not respect the international norms. We should have learned that with Hitler. Putin is the new Hitler and the Russians - unfortunately - are as bad as the Germans were in the 1930s / 1940s.
The only language Putin understands is strength. Arm Ukraine to the hilt, send them all the western equipment they need and, if Russia threatens nuclear attacks, make it clear we will strike back. Putin is a coward, he shit his pants if he thinks the West will hit Russia hard.
So where does Stalin fit in?
Are we talking 1939 or 1941?
Take your pick. You might also consider where Chairman Mao fits in with your 'nice people only or it's war' theory.
The UK and France were ready to defend Finland in 1939-40. We only didn't because the war ended before we could send help. Otherwise, we would have been up against the Russkis.
Tell me which country Mao invaded post-the deal with Nixon.
Putin only understands strength. We tried this compromise shit in 2014 and he came back for more. Russia needs to feel the pain and hard. It already is but more is needed.
Re the winter war of 1939-40 : Were the allies planning to really help Finland, or just advance their own interests, namely stopping Swedish exports of iron ore to Germany? Source: World World 2 week by week series by Indy Neidell and Time Ghost Army (eg. part 28 and 24).
I am really glad that Ukraine is getting real help.
There was also an element of wrangling in UK/French political circles afaics.
That similarly happened in the Norway Campaign, as France was nervous about provoking a direct German response I think.
On a sidenote, there has been quite a lot of media commentary about the 75k casualties in Ukraine in 5 months.
I am not sure how different Russian nationalism is now, but the Russian casualties in the Winter War were about 4-5 times higher in somewhat less time, in a country that was only 20% larger in population than today's Russia.
Youngest is going to work at Winfrith in October and needs to find somewhere to live nearby. He looked at Dorchester originally but is now thinking of Weymouth.
Any ideas welcome.
Weymouth will be cheaper than Dorchester, but it does have a certain reputation
Meaning .....?
Weymouth is a bit like a mini-Portsmouth, and chavvy in places.
Thanks. Son has an 8 month secondment so he has to find somewhere to live by October. At a reasonable cost.
"Who’ll speak up for the working-class white boys who’ve become Britain’s new oppressed minority? Professor responds as the smallest proportion ever get into top universities Matthew Goodwin"
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
Are the numbers controlled for parental wealth though. I suspect the white figures or disproportionately weight to private schools, so the wwc does relatively poorly.
But I’ve not seen the underlying data
The real interesting statistic there is why nearly half of British Chinese families offspring manage to make it to Russell Group universities, a level four times greater than any other ethnic background. Another is that the numbers for admissions from black and white families are virtually identical.
That suggests whatever is going doesn't have much to do with racism, and nor is Britain 'institutionally racist'.
It would be interesting to see how the figures have changed over time. I'm assuming that when I was at Cambridge just over two decades ago the numbers were not so close. So presumably actions were taken that closed the gap. Would be interesting to know what those actions were and how they might be applied in other areas.
There is a perception issue too. Britain has a much higher white population than people like me, who grew up in inner suburban London, have direct experience. So I did find Cambridge jarringly white compared to South London, but that was as much because South London was unusual than because Cambridge was.
Youngest is going to work at Winfrith in October and needs to find somewhere to live nearby. He looked at Dorchester originally but is now thinking of Weymouth.
Any ideas welcome.
UKAEA? I don't know the area, but I know some who do live there and who worked there. Any specific questions?
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
It's not amazing. It's psychological warfare. You won't deepen your understanding of it if you stay amazed.
I have not watched the video and I will not watch it either.
But the use of the hat and the use of colour in the form of the gloves suggests that someone has learnt from the recent use of PW by Daesh in the conflict in Iraq and Syria. This wasn't a guy "allowing" himself to be filmed, as in "Oh, go on then, if you want."
I watched it last night. It’s absolutely grim. I advise against
But it is only going to strengthen Ukrainian resolve against the Russians. Why would you ever surrender if this is your likely fate?
The war can only worsen
And God help any Russian soldiers captured by Ukranian resistance fighters or villagers now
Yes. They will be burned to death or skinned alive, and who can blame the Ukrainians?
That poor Ukrainian soldier was somebody's son, brother, uncle, father
If it was my son or my brother I could not go to my grave without taking equal revenge on a Russian. In front of me. Personally. The video is that bad
Amazingly the guy who did the castration has allowed himself to be identified, via that video (distinctive hat, etc). His days are numbered, and the number is small. As, indeed, are the days of his close family in Chechnya, I suspect
This kind of thing was a deliberate strategy by the Japanese in WWII. The idea was, if we're brutal to prisoners, they'll be brutal to us, and our men won't surrender because they'll expect the same in return. Almost, if not, impossible not to play the game. If I recall correctly (not far enough into World at War ATM) the allies knew of the strategy but still retaliated brutally.
I've been reading around this and you might be right. Apparently (IIRC @TOPPING told us this yesterday) the Wagner Group (hardcore Russian special ops) are known for this disgusting cruelty - to instil terror, and make Russians fight harder (to avoid capture, as you say)
Crucially, however, the normal playbook is to make sure no one is identifiable and the vids generally leak out a year or two after the atrocity: the rumours are enough to begin with. Here something seems to have gone wrong. The vid has leaked immediately and the evildoers are readily identifiable. So it feels like a massive propaganda own goal for Russia
This is terrible Nazi shit, blatantly done on living Ukrainians, visible on any phone or tablet or laptop worldwide. It stokes furious hatred for Russia
"Leak out" - please be serious. Timing is everything in warfare.
Have a look at how the Mongols used psychological warfare. They were extremely skilled at it. If your guys are seen as subhuman weaklings that's one thing, but being seen as vicious inhuman monsters is another. Sure, the two things can braid together. Psychological warfare isn't easy.
I don't know how you conclude this is definitely bad for the Russian war effort.
The Russian embassy in London won't have put that tweet out calling for neo-Nazis to suffer "humiliating deaths" without serious consideration.
My guess is there will be a response or at least a "side" reference by Lavrov or possibly even Putin.
To get a handle on which audiences are being aimed at by what parties, consider what may actually be done by parties and populations in response, not only in response to the publicity this act has received but its timing. ("Why now?") I would say for starters that those in the Ukraine, in Russia, and in the disputed regions who are somewhat sceptical about the genuineness of what may soon be a formal announcement of an intention to hold a referendum in the Kherson region are more likely to become more sceptical than less, given the publicity that this horrible act has received. On the other side of the paper, those who hold the opposite view will become more entrenched too. Those on both sides who are coining it from the war will be pleased at the development...
As for "worldwide revulsion", so what? How many divisions has worldwide revulsion?
If you only read one book on PW, make it Paul Linebarger's.
There will be Russian soldiers who have heard material about actions carried out by neo-Nazis in the Donbas and their response will be similar to yours after you heard this material: if it was your family member you wouldn't rest until you'd had revenge, etc. - against "a Russian", "a Ukrainian", "a Chechen", or whoever. That's the dynamic and it's as ugly as f***.
I appreciate you're not a native English speaker but we would usually say "other side of the coin", not "other side of the paper".
Comments
That is why we should stick to military supplies for Ukraine but not ground troops and air strikes unless NATO nations themselves face invasion (which I think is unlikely, even Putin knows how far he can push it)
It says so right here on page 7 of the official "spread Russian propaganda" manual.
How can you possibly claim that there's no evidence of rape by Russian soldiers? That's a grotesque level of denial of the depravity perpetrated by the Russians. You. Are. A. Disgrace.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlled-areas
Emily Oldfield
@EmilyvOldfield
I'm interested in hearing about food customs and traditions (both historic & continuing) focusing on East Lancashire and Calderdale. Any favourite foods from childhood? Dishes you think might be unique to the area? Mysteries? I'll start w. Dock Pudding... any shares appreciated x
https://twitter.com/EmilyvOldfield/status/1552659721081028608
Matthew Goodwin"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11063187/Wholl-speak-working-class-white-boys-whove-Britains-new-oppressed-minority.html
Probably a stupid idea, not endorsing it. But if I was at the MOD that's the kind of options I would laying out.
However whatever measure you look at, university attendance, GCSE results or average earnings it is Chinese and Indian Britons leading the way, reflecting too the shift in the global economy
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/a-to-c-in-english-and-maths-gcse-attainment-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48919813
I think other posters missed this - you're suggesting that NATO faked that video in order to escalate the war. Or even did the deed themselves.
Now working class white boys may not be getting to university and their life chances limited, but it is not as a result of "woke". There are probably a number of reasons, perhaps the underfunding of state education is a crucial one.
The actual stats he quotes blow his own argument away within a paragraph:
"Among Britain’s Chinese families, some 40.7 per cent of their youngsters made it to Oxford, Cambridge and others in the elite Russell Group in 2020-21. The figures for Asian young people were 16 per cent. It was 10.7 per cent for black families — and just 10.5 per cent among white ones.
One of the reasons that children from black African families are doing so much better in attending top universities is because their parents are often particularly focused on education.
So basically the numbers he quotes for Black families are almost identical to white families and yet somehow black families are "doing so much better"?
Goodwin needs a long holiday.
NATO would not be aiming for regime change, or occupation of Moscow, so Putin gets to walk away and live to fight another day. He will fold because, ultimately, he recognises that something is better than nothing.
And, in terms of humiliation, we're actually doing him a favour by joining the war. Being defeated by Ukraine would be a humiliation. Being defeated by NATO was what he's spent decades warning the Russian people to expect, and preventing the destruction of Russia proper a great victory.
Bit of a generalisation but then again in general that was the feeling I got. These kids had absolutely no interest in learning or any idea of the possible shape of their futures.
A factor though was so many of them seemed to have gone through primary school without learning the basics of reading and writing. If there was a systemic failure it was at that end of the system.
So - a memory I have is enduring French lessons at the age of say 12 or 13 with a bunch of fellow kids who could not command or write even the most basic of english. What the feck was the point?
https://www.savethestudent.org/student-finance/ethnic-minority-scholarships.html
The much bigger elephant in the room is why 40% of Chinese families got their kids to Russell Group?
Massive Chinese work ethic?
Relatively small sample?
I mean why?
Is it cos we can change the betting markets and so some news commentators might change their columns based on the latest odds?
@MrEd - Sure - the Azov Regiment for starters, with their wolf's angel and stuff. Some soldiers hear about atrocities they believe were committed by the other side, and this then makes them feel justified in committing atrocities. Real atrocities find that most of their impact then comes through their use as propaganda. Some general policies are adopted and some specific actions are carried out with precisely that in mind. The usual purpose of surgical gloves is to protect patients. Somehow I doubt that's what the putative Kadyrovite had in mind in this instance. Problems arising when large numbers of people go f***ing psycho aren't an issue that's high up on either side's agenda.
When it's observed that the notion that A "imposes sanctions" on B (good) whereas B "weaponises trade" with A (bad) is wholly propagandistic, there may be some who don't get it, and who really believe themselves when they scream "Crimethinker!" and "Enemy saboteur". But whilst they may be skilled at gunslinging or logistics you wouldn't want them handling the PW.
Incidentally regarding the AR you have to wonder whether Putin will end up becoming mates with some of them. He managed something similar with the Kadyrovites in a previous war.
With the postal ballots just about to be sent out, the Truss camp presumably feels this is the right time for maximum impact.
And how will the sendout be ordered - alphabetically, by region, or what? Is there an intermediate stage, where area officials can sit on batches and delay delivery for a few days if they wish?
My view is still:
* best for Tory party in next GE: Penny Mordaunt;
* worst for Tory party in next GE: Liz Truss;
* best at the job: Rishi Sunak.
He’s a new poster with few posts.
A more sophisticated Russian agent than usual
But I’ve not seen the underlying data
I think he got scared by some of the earlier polls that showed Mordaunt way ahead. e.g. the 12-13 July YouGov for all candidates which had Mordaunt on 27%, Badenoch on 15% & then Sunak & Truss both on 13%.
I am very pissed off with the MPs that we weren't given an effective choice of who we were going to get as PM.
That suggests whatever is going doesn't have much to do with racism, and nor is Britain 'institutionally racist'.
AIUI, there is quite a difference between Black Caribbean and Black African populations in terms of educational attainment.
And this is why the government is quite forceful about saying that the black population aren't especially discriminated against.
It will be very interesting to see whether Truss retains Suella Braverman as Attorney General. If she does - and why wouldn't she? - the message will be a very clear one:
"The Attorney General has banned government lawyers from telling ministers that their policies are unlawful, The Telegraph can reveal."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/suella-braverman-bans-lawyers-from-telling-ministers-their-policies-are-unlawful/ar-AA106X7l?fromMaestro=true
Braverman represents a danger to Parliamentary democracy every bit as grave as the one that would have been posed had Seamas Milne and Andrew Murray walked into Downing Street under a Jeremy Corbyn premiership.
British Chinese families have very tight knit family structures, and highly ambitious parents.
Black Africans are deeply conservative and Christian and tend to marry young and form strong family units. Unfortunately, single parenthood is far more common amongst Black Caribbean families, and also a problem amongst in some WWC communities, and very much an issue with Travellers.
Family. Marriage. It's about 100 times more important for a child's emotional stability and educational attainment than anything else, however unfashionable it may be to say so.
Oddly, the Americans were not mad keen to help the Vietnamese…
How are the moths doing?
There will be riots.
I’m sure Jolyon Maugham would be up for that…
This is why I was saying yesterday this woke stuff precious few people care about and really fades into insignificance compared to the cost of living crisis.
I am really glad that Ukraine is getting real help.
He does not make a direct snapshot black / white comparison in terms of numbers, but rather points to family stability as a reason for a sea change in attendance from black families.
Your quote is conflated from two halves 6 paras apart - not "within a paragraph".
I think his comparison is with previous performance of children from black families.
His argument is:
1 - There is a belief that power structures hold back black students.
2 - However there has been a national drive to make intakes 'more diverse'.
3 - Now for the first time children from white families are the least likely (apart from Roma?) to attend top universities. (ie change over time)
4 - (Your first para quote)
5 - This is to be celebrated, and is a success story.
6 - Efforts to increase diversity are commendable in some ways, but are not the whole story, and we also need to look at culture within communities (which we have been discussing).
7 - (Your second para quote). Here he does not compare black vs white families.
8 - Then contrasts stability of black African families with white working class family breakdown. (Imo that's probably not detailed enough, as there are trends the other way in eg some black urban communities, single parent families, gangs etc. But overall it stands.).
9 - Then moves on to culture in Universities - essentially looping back to point 1 for the rest of the piece.
The chart which should be in the article is something like this one that shows children from black families performing far better in reaching university, and relative to children from white families over 15 years, and supports his point 1. This is all Uni, not Russell Group. It marks a move of children from black families into degree-professions.
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/higher-education/entry-rates-into-higher-education/latest#by-ethnicity-over-time
Agree that the Mail could have been more precise.
That similarly happened in the Norway Campaign, as France was nervous about provoking a direct German response I think.
On a sidenote, there has been quite a lot of media commentary about the 75k casualties in Ukraine in 5 months.
I am not sure how different Russian nationalism is now, but the Russian casualties in the Winter War were about 4-5 times higher in somewhat less time, in a country that was only 20% larger in population than today's Russia.
My early wording in the comment above sounds a bit sharper than intended. Apologies.
There is a perception issue too. Britain has a much higher white population than people like me, who grew up in inner suburban London, have direct experience. So I did find Cambridge jarringly white compared to South London, but that was as much because South London was unusual than because Cambridge was.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/stats-age-defying-james-anderson-1326813
And long may he continue as he's now the only international cricketer who is older than I am.