Snap debate poll gives it to Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com
?BREAKING – SNAP DEBATE POLL?Tonight we asked over 1000 normal voters to watch the debate and we have just asked them who they thought performed best. Results:Tugendhat 36%Sunak 25%Mordaunt 12%Badenoch 12%Truss 6% pic.twitter.com/0q4IliqQNM
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
If, as seems likely, the final two are Penny and Rishi, then the ERG/right/Nad/Mogg/JRM/Baker/IDS/Brexiteers might all finally be wrested from their positions of power and washed down the plug hole.
The multitudinous seas incarnadine will reoxygenate and become green again. Rejoice at that news!
I, for one, look forward to six months of the ERG ensuring the business of government can't be maintained.
John Major’s bastards were nothing compared to the current crop of Tory bastards.
If, as seems likely, the final two are Penny and Rishi, then the ERG/right/Nad/Mogg/JRM/Baker/IDS/Brexiteers might all finally be wrested from their positions of power and washed down the plug hole.
The multitudinous seas incarnadine will reoxygenate and become green again. Rejoice at that news!
I, for one, look forward to six months of the ERG ensuring the business of government can't be maintained.
John Major’s bastards were nothing compared to the current crop of Tory bastards.
They're the same bastards though, just older and with a worse case of brain-rot.
Penny - unconvincing, vacuous Kemi - more convincing, but still vacuous and no substance Rishi - fluent and won, but creepy and untrustworthy Liz - bad, mad, and sad Tom - hello, centrist dad.
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
Rishi's MP backers will feel more comfortable he is still the right choice. But Mordaunt's biggest rival is Truss, not Sunak, and so she'll presumably be happy enough, as she has such an advantage with the members it will take more than one debate performance to knock that off course.
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
Sunak may be posh but the Tories haven't had a banker as leader since John Major
Tugendhat didn't do anything for me, except for his blunt assessment of Johnson's lack of honesty, but my wife felt that the audience liked him best, so either I missed something, or the public aren't yet ready to move on from giving Johnson a kicking.
You do have to wonder how Truss became the standard bearer of the right.
Presumably just because Boris made her Foreign Secretary.
You would have thought someone would have stopped and asked if she was the best they could find.
No one told her when to run She missed the starting gun
Turns out being in Indonesia when it all kicked off wasn't just happenstance, it was an objective correlative for utter uselessness, like King John losing the crown jewels in the Wash.
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
Sunak may be posh but the Tories haven't had a banker as leader since John Major
I was about to disagree and refer to BJ, but then I checked and I'd misread 'banker'.
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
Also, good glassmanship
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
Truss should have turned up in a red evening dress to maximise the impression of unhinged, vampiric lunacy.
I thought Truss dressed like the kind of teacher you hated at school. Mordaunt dressed like the head teacher. I hated the fact that Sunak didn’t wear a tie. You know full well he has thousands of pounds worth in his walking in wardrobe but was told that he’d look cooler if he didn’t wear one.
I do at least feel Tom is not angling for a Cabinet position as much as some candidates in the race so far have. By being more unequivocal about Boris than most, and seemingly being a bit more sincere about a clean start, he is attacking the others more, in implicit fashion, for being part of what we need a break from. Which is not the way to get a promotion.
Tugendhat didn't do anything for me, except for his blunt assessment of Johnson's lack of honesty, but my wife felt that the audience liked him best, so either I missed something, or the public aren't yet ready to move on from giving Johnson a kicking.
The next Prime Minister is just an effigy of Boris that people are allowed to punch as they walk past.
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
Rishi's MP backers will feel more comfortable he is still the right choice. But Mordaunt's biggest rival is Truss, not Sunak, and so she'll presumably be happy enough, as she has such an advantage with the members it will take more than one debate performance to knock that off course.
Yes, that's my take. Sunak probably did best tonight, but only Truss was calamitously bad, so even though Mordaunt somewhat underperformed, she has probably seen off her major rival (Sunak aside): for the last two
Are Tory MPs really going to put Truss in the final stages? No. Too risky. She might actually win. Badenoch is as clearly talented as she is clearly inexperienced. She needs 5 years at least in Cabinet, she's like an excellent player in the Under 17s in sport
Tugendhat got the sympathy vote because he has nothing to lose and nothing to win. He is irrelevant
Prediction: it will be Mordaunt v Sunak in the final two, and Mordaunt will win, because the Tories don't want yet another posh banker type as PM, and Penny will remind them of Maggie
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
I agree with the final two, but I think Mordaunt is a very, very different kettle of fish from Thatcher. She has skills of empathic communication that Thatcher was never close to having, and have come out well in her personal press conferences so far.
If, as seems likely, the final two are Penny and Rishi, then the ERG/right/Nad/Mogg/JRM/Baker/IDS/Brexiteers might all finally be wrested from their positions of power and washed down the plug hole.
The multitudinous seas incarnadine will reoxygenate and become green again. Rejoice at that news!
I, for one, look forward to six months of the ERG ensuring the business of government can't be maintained.
John Major’s bastards were nothing compared to the current crop of Tory bastards.
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
Also, good glassmanship
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
Course the super troll move would have been Rishi to wear the nice, yellow dress.
But what bathroom would he use dixie? That's what the members want to know apparently.
Absolute fail of a post. The best (least worst) thing to have emerged from all this is that there is a sane and rational consensus on the right hand side of the ledger about all that. It's an issue which can only bedamaging, and only to Labour.
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
So do all the best con men.
But seriously, he was mostly clear and articulate, and he is correct he would be a clean start from the past. I take Casino_Royale's point about his style being somewhat nostalgic, but there are worst things to be nostalgic about.
He should enjoy his weekend while he can, and with any luck at least not go backwards in supporters.
With my Labour hat on, I was most worried about Penny winning, and that spelling trouble for Labour.
I'm not worried any more. Very underwhelming, I thought, and would be out of her depth as PM.
I wouldn't agree with that. Her answer on the cost of living crisis - the importance of "keeping people going through the toughest times", immediately after Sunak's we've-done-everything-we-can smoothness, which can sometimes look like complacency, was once again both the most empathic, and the most politically and socially relevant for Labour.
Clearly the longer-form conversational style suits her more though. She should hope for a different format next time.
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
Also, good glassmanship
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
Truss should have turned up in a red evening dress to maximise the impression of unhinged, vampiric lunacy.
I thought Truss dressed like the kind of teacher you hated at school. Mordaunt dressed like the head teacher. I hated the fact that Sunak didn’t wear a tie. You know full well he has thousands of pounds worth in his walking in wardrobe but was told that he’d look cooler if he didn’t wear one.
covid has killed ties, only salesmen wear them these days
Does anyone think Truss could be next out after that?
No. The hardcore ERG types have nowhere else to go.
Kemi. She'll pick up a lot of those braverman votes and probably quite a few of the TT votes as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the final three becomes Kemi, Rishi and Penny and a final two of Rishi vs one of the other two.
It always comes back to "who do you trust with the nuke codes" and, um, it's not great really is it.
Sunak, maybe, because he's so fiscally responsible he doesn't want to waste the money, or something. Or Tugendhat: sensibly boring, boringly sensible. The others. Ummmm...
I thought Tugendhat was posh, stiff, formal and about 20 years out of date.
Maybe it's nostalgia.
I agree. I felt he is stupid. Just stupid. Why am I even bothering to sugar the pill? He's DIM
I know his type and he's like Ben Wallace. Fucking stupid if above average - IQ about 120 - but due to posh class status they over-estimate themselves by an order of magnitude. I often wonder if Cameron was the same
It always comes back to "who do you trust with the nuke codes" and, um, it's not great really is it.
Sunak, maybe, because he's so fiscally responsible he doesn't want to waste the money, or something. Or Tugendhat: sensibly boring, boringly sensible. The others. Ummmm...
Wot? I was shitting a brick the whole time Boris had them.
Say what you will about tonight's candidates but I don't with them.
I thought Tugendhat was posh, stiff, formal and about 20 years out of date.
Maybe it's nostalgia.
I agree. I felt he is stupid. Just stupid. Why am I even bothering to sugar the pill? He's DIM
I know his type and he's like Ben Wallace. Fucking stupid if above average - IQ about 120 - but due to posh class status they over-estimate themselves by an order of magnitude. I often wonder if Cameron was the same
With the benefit of a little distance, it does seem that way.
Does anyone think Truss could be next out after that?
No. The hardcore ERG types have nowhere else to go.
Kemi. She'll pick up a lot of those braverman votes and probably quite a few of the TT votes as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the final three becomes Kemi, Rishi and Penny and a final two of Rishi vs one of the other two.
There was something very flirty about Kemi saying to TT "he'll think differently when he's a minister." My dream is they have now hooked up at the afterparty and will announce a joint bid in the morning
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
Also, good glassmanship
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
Truss should have turned up in a red evening dress to maximise the impression of unhinged, vampiric lunacy.
I thought Truss dressed like the kind of teacher you hated at school. Mordaunt dressed like the head teacher. I hated the fact that Sunak didn’t wear a tie. You know full well he has thousands of pounds worth in his walking in wardrobe but was told that he’d look cooler if he didn’t wear one.
covid has killed ties, only salesmen wear them these days
It's a good point. I wonder if the necktie is going the way of the hat, after Spanish flu
From universal to invisible, in a couple of decades (but accelerated here)
Does anyone think Truss could be next out after that?
No. The hardcore ERG types have nowhere else to go.
Kemi. She'll pick up a lot of those braverman votes and probably quite a few of the TT votes as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the final three becomes Kemi, Rishi and Penny and a final two of Rishi vs one of the other two.
There was something very flirty about Kemi saying to TT "he'll think differently when he's a minister." My dream is they have now hooked up at the afterparty and will announce a joint bid in the morning
Well there's the unpleasant nightmare fuel for the evening... night all.
It always comes back to "who do you trust with the nuke codes" and, um, it's not great really is it.
Sunak, maybe, because he's so fiscally responsible he doesn't want to waste the money, or something. Or Tugendhat: sensibly boring, boringly sensible. The others. Ummmm...
Wot? I was shitting a brick the whole time Boris had them.
Say what you will about tonight's candidates but I don't with them.
I was pleasantly surprised at Tom. Needs to cut down on the smiling a bit but otherwise came across as kind, sincere and honest.
Also, good glassmanship
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
Truss should have turned up in a red evening dress to maximise the impression of unhinged, vampiric lunacy.
I thought Truss dressed like the kind of teacher you hated at school. Mordaunt dressed like the head teacher. I hated the fact that Sunak didn’t wear a tie. You know full well he has thousands of pounds worth in his walking in wardrobe but was told that he’d look cooler if he didn’t wear one.
covid has killed ties, only salesmen wear them these days
Time to kill them off for good. In today’s enlightened times, why shoul smart dress for people who identify as female be a floaty summer dress, and for mean a suit and tie? Business attire is changing, and for the better. What is the point of a tie?
Edit: posted after wearing said tie for 10 hours at graduation today...
It always comes back to "who do you trust with the nuke codes" and, um, it's not great really is it.
Sunak, maybe, because he's so fiscally responsible he doesn't want to waste the money, or something. Or Tugendhat: sensibly boring, boringly sensible. The others. Ummmm...
Wot? I was shitting a brick the whole time Boris had them.
Say what you will about tonight's candidates but I don't with them.
Comments
Not sure anything tonight has changed that
She'd have given us all a laugh with her "performances" and most importantly would have made smarmy Rishi squirm...
Penny - unconvincing, vacuous
Kemi - more convincing, but still vacuous and no substance
Rishi - fluent and won, but creepy and untrustworthy
Liz - bad, mad, and sad
Tom - hello, centrist dad.
I thought Kemi scored points by turning out in that nice yellow. wtf were the other women thinking, going all drab when you don't have to?
2.2 Penny Mordaunt 45%
3.55 Rishi Sunak 28%
4.5 Liz Truss 22%
38 Kemi Badenoch
50 Tom Tugendhat
240 Dominic Raab
Presumably just because Boris made her Foreign Secretary.
You would have thought someone would have stopped and asked if she was the best they could find.
Namely, that whoever has been in government for the last decade has done a rubbish job.
She missed the starting gun
Turns out being in Indonesia when it all kicked off wasn't just happenstance, it was an objective correlative for utter uselessness, like King John losing the crown jewels in the Wash.
Under her Premiership she'll have the Queen or Chas saying things like 'cock' in the Queen's speech.
I can then lay 1000/1 Tom at great prices.
Are Tory MPs really going to put Truss in the final stages? No. Too risky. She might actually win. Badenoch is as clearly talented as she is clearly inexperienced. She needs 5 years at least in Cabinet, she's like an excellent player in the Under 17s in sport
Tugendhat got the sympathy vote because he has nothing to lose and nothing to win. He is irrelevant
It will, I am almost certain, be Mordaunt v Sunak
If Rishi talks about giving the benefit of the doubt again I may scream.
I thought Tories were against being so generous with the giving of benefits anyway.
Maybe it's nostalgia.
I'm not worried any more. Very underwhelming, I thought, and would be out of her depth as PM.
But seriously, he was mostly clear and articulate, and he is correct he would be a clean start from the past. I take Casino_Royale's point about his style being somewhat nostalgic, but there are worst things to be nostalgic about.
He should enjoy his weekend while he can, and with any luck at least not go backwards in supporters.
I suspect this reflects that even if MPs do put her into the Final against Sunak, she could well lose to him.
Members will watch debates and I suspect many will be willing to switch their choice.
Clearly the longer-form conversational style suits her more though. She should hope for a different format next time.
Is Boris going to set up his own political party like En Marche? A Tory donor tells us he is willing to fund it…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/boris-going-set-political-party/
Sunak, maybe, because he's so fiscally responsible he doesn't want to waste the money, or something. Or Tugendhat: sensibly boring, boringly sensible. The others. Ummmm...
I know his type and he's like Ben Wallace. Fucking stupid if above average - IQ about 120 - but due to posh class status they over-estimate themselves by an order of magnitude. I often wonder if Cameron was the same
3.3 Rishi Sunak 30%
4.6 Liz Truss 22%
34 Kemi Badenoch
55 Tom Tugendhat
240 Dominic Raab
Say what you will about tonight's candidates but I don't with them.
Except Truss - maybe.
From universal to invisible, in a couple of decades (but accelerated here)
“ Johnson: I say your three cent titanium tax goes too far.
Jackson: And I say your three cent titanium tax doesn't go too far enough!”
He still has the launch codes.
Edit: posted after wearing said tie for 10 hours at graduation today...