Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com
Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com
It’s been an interesting morning watching one Tory hopeful after another launch their campaigns to succeed Mr. Johnson. Some are making a virtue of promising early tax cuts if they win while others are making a virtue of not rushing into such moves.
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* Can't really be Birmingham for reasons and as others have pointed out if you move it to a small place it will total dominate the town / city but would leave whole piles of things in London.
2.78 Rishi Sunak 35%
3.4 Penny Mordaunt 29%
4.9 Liz Truss 20%
16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
17 Tom Tugendhat 5%
60 Jeremy Hunt
110 Nadhim Zahawi
120 Sajid Javid
140 Priti Patel
170 Suella Braverman
200 Dominic Raab
It is a bit like when I was young and enthusiastic. And supported setting up a UK DARPA. The politicians I met were very keen, but wanted to fix what they saw a stupid things in the DARPA model - not supporting multiple projects, but pick a single big winner. Also long term projects rather than short term goals.....
The romantic in me would like Colchester, York or Winchester but none of those will happen.
*On one occasion, the people printing the ballots for a student election (at my Uni) screwed up and ReOpen Nominations was "Ron" on the ballot. The Union reps claimed that those companioning for Ron to win were trying to sabotage the election.
DR has backed RS
And the whole point of the change would be to change the focus of the country away from being London centric.
That England bowling attack is ripe for going for a load of runs.
I really struggle to understand England's love of Craig Overton, he isn't even the best of the Overtons.
Plus. His negatives are known.
The big unsolvable problem with UBI is how to deal with the wildly different housing costs in different parts of the country. It would be totally impossible to live in London, on UBI and a minimum wage job.
Truss looks value to me now. I’m afraid I’ve done a 180 from last night but you’ve now got all the ingredients of a classic dividing line being drawn between Culture War/Tax Cuts and Rishinomics. The thing that has changed my mind has been the Nadine/JRM endorsement and the Raab/Shapps endorsement.
It is far easier to see backers of Suella, Badenoch, Priti, finding their way to Liz than it is to Penny.
Penny will get transfers from Tugendhat but that won’t get her where she needs to be for the membership round.
She either needs a big endorsement from one of the figures on the right, ideally this afternoon, or we need to be convinced she has a significant level of support from undeclared Tories.
Tory members don’t want him as leader, not sure how he gets around that, unless he can herd the cats of the Tory parliamentary party into giving him a patsy opponent like Hunt
And there won’t be a coronation. The party is too divided and embittered for that
https://youtu.be/TFufofECYuk?t-2508
But I think we need somewhere which is central, accessible, and which would benefit from the investment.
Stoke.
My other alternative is Coventry. I suggested this to a senior civil servant a few years back, who almost cried at the suggestion. But five minutes later she was bemoaning that a senior civil servant can afford nothing better in London than a 2 bed flat in Streatham, and she took my point when I pointed out the connection. She did, however, bargain for Birmingham rather than Cov.
This is funny.
Most have probably never even been there.
Plus Tory members want tax cuts because they don't need to care about 25+ years time when they will be dead in the next 15 years.
Would have been massive if we weren't focused on Tory shenanigans.
And up North knocking London down a peg or 2 is probably worth a fair few votes.
There is no gravitas. There is no depth. There is no broad policy agenda.
And I know it is trivial, but he is just too shiny. It gives him an artificial plastic appearance that makes him too much of an estate agent or car salesman.
Just can't take to him.
The sneakiest electorate on the planet?
A permanent move to another city doesn't take away the need to repair the existing buildings
https://youtu.be/yEGlbWEPLsM
But the cost of repairing an empty building is X or Y times cheaper than doing repairs when the building is being used.
Wildcard option: Kemi punches through on the right and wins the battle for those votes against Liz, as a result of strong performances at hustings. Not suggesting it’s likely, but some heads could be turned.
Then it’s much harder to call: Rishi vs Penny or Rishi v Kemi.
Phew. I don’t think it will ever happen, nor should it happen; it would be an act of self harm
The UK has one great World City. London. It might be the greatest city on earth, it is easily in the top 5
No other city in the UK is in the top 100 for “greatness”, probably not even Edinburgh (which is exceedingly handsome but too small for greatness)
Taking politics out of London would damage our politics and diminish the city at the same time. Stupid
Rishi is on conveyor belt into last 2, Truss is on conveyor belt into last two and number 10, unless Mordant can prize her out that top two slot.
it’s so utterly obvious today, why isn’t PB getting it? 😕
Most important issues facing the country:
The economy 66%
Health 36%
Immigration & asylum 26%
The environment 24%
Britain leaving the EU 21%
rest below 20%
Conservative voters only
The economy 73%
Immigration & asylum 45%
Health 34%
rest below 20%
"Continuity Boris" tag will ultimately do for her.
Like others I’ve been looking at Badenoch for the first time and Yes, wow, she has that *something*, for sure
Which is encouraging. There is ample talent in the lower ranks, coming through - promoted by Boris, let it be said
Badenoch is the next-leader-but-one?
You need to be in the top two.
There’s a lot going on in the world at the moment, which is mostly being ignored:
Tide turning in Ukraine, thanks to the NATO MLRS weapons. Another general killed and a massive bomb store blown up.
Uber being the sh!ttiest company ever, in ways even more sh!tty that we might ever have thought posible.
Revolution in Sri Lanka
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1546825483358191618
33% and the other two can have 33.5% each
Could be turned into a super hotel. Get 10 minutes at the dispatch box to spout whatever bollocks you like.
Nowhere else could offer that opportunity.
The idea of it being allowed to slowly disintegrate or even be demolished would be cultural vandalism
2.78 Rishi Sunak 35%
3.4 Penny Mordaunt 29%
4.9 Liz Truss 20%
Egypt now pays 54% of its state budge on interest/debt payments.
When I was in Lanka for most of Jan I read a marvelous book on the country. Elephant Complex. Superb and darkly funny
But besides amusing me it told me just how phenomenally violent Sri Lanka has been, throughout its history. So violent they view the British colonial era (unlike most other colonies) as a rather golden time of peace. They had no real desire for the Brits to depart, lest the violence return. Which it did. In the civil war. and which it may now do again