Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
Yes. I'd say that, but it's also as well to remember that most of the purported big freezes and heatwaves are hyped at best or made up at worst by the newspapers and when you double check with the Met Office to see what actually is coming it is nothing remotely of the kind.
So, Met Office forecasting 35 is something to keep an eye on - though again, looking with my northern eyes it is another 2 very hot days next weekend rather than a more long lasting heatwave and we dip back to 20 midweek, both this and next week.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Cameron asked for quality people of all backgrounds to stand to be MPs. Other parties have used all-women shortlists and appealed to ‘community leaders’ - very different strategies.
From a contemporary article:
“The party board's committee on candidates will meet to whittle down 500 would-be MPs on the party's list of approved candidates into an A-list of between 100 and 150 "priority" candidates. Local associations for 140 winnable seats will be required to choose from this list and Mr Cameron has insisted it will include equal numbers of men and women, and a "significant proportion" from ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.”
That’s definitely an inclusionary policy. That’s effectively a quota for the candidate list. And it worked!
And I remember a lot of grumbling from some Tories about it at the time.
Apart from Truss and Patel none of them were on the A-list. And constituency associations were never obliged to select from the list and nor were any quotas imposed. In fact, many explicitly rejected it due to interference from central office - it's remarkable how many are no longer in politics or have since defected to the Lib Dems.
So, it shows the exact opposite of what you think it does.
Dr. Foxy, possible that Sunak will get such an advantage with MPs the second-placed candidate may step down. However, they'll (probably) know they have a good shot with the membership. Be interesting to see how it goes.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
That heatwave is going to interestingly co-incide with Tory candidates openly criticising measures to mitigate climate change.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Blacks are killed by the police greater than their share of the population, but at about their share of convicted violent criminals, so it is far from certain that the high rate is unjustified overall, whatever may be the case in individual shootings.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
There might be thought to be some degree of social injustice underlying the black community's unduly large share of violent crime and (wild guess) small share of white collar fraud, unless you think they are genetically disposed to the one more than the other?
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Blacks are killed by the police greater than their share of the population, but at about their share of convicted violent criminals, so it is far from certain that the high rate is unjustified overall, whatever may be the case in individual shootings.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
Like most things, it's complex.
If you live in - say - a nice part of Los Angeles, you will find that the police force is a largely multi-ethnic force, of whites, hispanics and African Americans, who treat pretty much everyone pretty well.
Sure, there are petty grumbles. But I - and none of my friends - have any cause to be upset with our local police force.
What is true of West Los Angeles is not true of everywhere.
There are cities in the US where African Americans make up four in ten of the population, but less than one in ten of the police. With high segregated geography, and no African Americans that have ever progressed beyond the rank of patrolman... well, when the cop car cruises by, it looks awfully like an occupying army.
From where I sit, I don't see much in the way of discrimination. In nice middle class areas, where jobs are plenty, schools are well funded and the offence most likely to get you in a courthouse is speeding... well, life is pretty good.
But I'd sure as shit not like to grow up as a poor black man in Alabama or Mississippi.
As I posted early, they aren't even pretending to be serious and straight with people - just a pack of lies and magic money tree fantasy. Unicorns on sticks.
How on earth did the Conservative party fall to this baleful state? It can't all be Johnson surely?
Just as spending can be an economic stimulus so can tax cuts.
There's an argument to cut taxes for 2-3 years to encourage investment and growth, and ameliorate the cost of living crisis, and have a path to budget surplus by 2030, for example.
However, I have yet to see any candidate (including Rishi) set this out.
I'd be much more interested in hearing a sober analysis about our consistent underperformance since the GFC and a plan to tackle it.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
Yes. I'd say that, but it's also as well to remember that most of the purported big freezes and heatwaves are hyped at best or made up at worst by the newspapers and when you double check with the Met Office to see what actually is coming it is nothing remotely of the kind.
So, Met Office forecasting 35 is something to keep an eye on - though again, looking with my northern eyes it is another 2 very hot days next weekend rather than a more long lasting heatwave and we dip back to 20 midweek, both this and next week.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Blacks are killed by the police greater than their share of the population, but at about their share of convicted violent criminals, so it is far from certain that the high rate is unjustified overall, whatever may be the case in individual shootings.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
Sssht. You will confuse people on here by resorting to facts.
IMHO the bigger issue with American police is their Unions that defend any and every wrongdoing and their, general, itchy trigger finger.
I'd like to see them use non-lethal weapons (tasers etc) far more often.
So Truss has declared but still only has 15 MPs prepared to publicly back her?
That is a disgrace.
As of yesterday she'd not announced anything on Twitter, so I think 'the big bang' was being held back till today.
Well, she now has to have one because if she doesn't, and her total only creeps up by 2s and 3s, then she really should be flying out to the 20s or 30s in the next 48 hours.
The expectation is that she can rival Rishi and Mordaunt as a very serious player amongst MPs.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
I'm struggling to find the statistics, but I'd be very surprised if a temperature of 35C, was ordinary as the hottest temperature of the year.
Before the current record was set in 2019, the all-time record high temperature was 38.1C, in 2003, breaking the 1990 record of 37.1C
These are not record temperatures that suggest temperatures of 35C are ordinary. I'd be really interested to know what proportion of years had a highest temperature of 35C or above, and the total number of days in the UK with a temperature observation of 35C or above. I'd expect both to be relatively low (but, alas, I don't have time to hunt the numbers down at the moment).
The right talk about gender and sex issues far more than the lib-left. It’s an obsession you could say.
The lib left just get on shagging who they want.
You don't understand. The left want to shatter society with the atomisation of people into sub groupings whilst simultaneously refusing to acknowledge genetic and biological reality that splits people into sub-groupings that is some how good for society.
It's like how the GOP pass actual real laws banning books in schools and installing thought police at university but actually it is the left who are the real threat to free speech.
Off topic, but I've been to Trent Bridge today to watch England play India in the last game of the 2020 series. A few observations:
Big snip
- Sat next to an 18 year old lad from Birmingham; English, of Anglo-Pakistani heritage. Very chatty, enthusiastic about everything. Sadly the only one of his mates interested in cricket; happily not dissuaded by this and quite happy to get a coach from Birmingham on his own and see who he got chatting to. He had been interested in cricket by T20 but got hooked on the game from the hundred last year. I have therefore slightly revised my opinion of the hundred upwards a bit. He was waiting for his A level results and hopes to do medicine at Birmingham and I hope he is successful. The world needs more people like him.
The world needs more people who like cricket and want to be doctors? Really?
I don't know if you are making a gentle joke or whether I am being ambiguous - in case it's the latter, I meant I was impressed by an 18 year old who would get a bus alone to another city to watch a cricket match and be quite happy to strike up conversation with whoever he was set next to. It's the independence of spirit, the nit being dependent on doing things with friends and family I am impressed by. I think it’s quite unusual. If it was a gentle joke, apologies for killing it with explanation!
Its absurd. We're already up to 11 declarations with more to follow probably. Some of them have less chance than I have. Braverman is a mentalist. Badenoch an unknown. The "I've been a minister for 2 days" man/woman - I literally have no clue who they are - a joke.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
I would just say on the allegations against Zahawi he dealt with them very well with Burley this morning and they do look as if they could be malicious
However, he ruled himself out for me with his chopping and changing in support of Johnson over just 24 hours
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
I'm struggling to find the statistics, but I'd be very surprised if a temperature of 35C, was ordinary as the hottest temperature of the year.
Before the current record was set in 2019, the all-time record high temperature was 38.1C, in 2003, breaking the 1990 record of 37.1C
These are not record temperatures that suggest temperatures of 35C are ordinary. I'd be really interested to know what proportion of years had a highest temperature of 35C or above, and the total number of days in the UK with a temperature observation of 35C or above. I'd expect both to be relatively low (but, alas, I don't have time to hunt the numbers down at the moment).
I can't recall where I saw it, but it was recent, the record UK temperatures for each of the last 20 years.
30C was exceeded in every year, but iirc 35C was probably exceeded somewhere around 30-40% of recent years.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
That heatwave is going to interestingly co-incide with Tory candidates openly criticising measures to mitigate climate change.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
I'm struggling to find the statistics, but I'd be very surprised if a temperature of 35C, was ordinary as the hottest temperature of the year.
Before the current record was set in 2019, the all-time record high temperature was 38.1C, in 2003, breaking the 1990 record of 37.1C
These are not record temperatures that suggest temperatures of 35C are ordinary. I'd be really interested to know what proportion of years had a highest temperature of 35C or above, and the total number of days in the UK with a temperature observation of 35C or above. I'd expect both to be relatively low (but, alas, I don't have time to hunt the numbers down at the moment).
This has drifted from my point which was the forecasts (really model runs, with some support from ensemble runs) of over 40 degree heat in the UK were not likely to arrive when we reach T=0.
Yes - I'll concede that we don't get a UK high of over 35 every year. But thats partly randomness in a system. Undeniably there is an impact of climate change, but chiefly the heat from a spell like this, a plume, arises from weather patterns sending the heat north. Climate change has almost certainly given it more background heat to work from.
So Truss has declared but still only has 15 MPs prepared to publicly back her?
That is a disgrace.
As of yesterday she'd not announced anything on Twitter, so I think 'the big bang' was being held back till today.
Well, she now has to have one because if she doesn't, and her total only creeps up by 2s and 3s, then she really should be flying out to the 20s or 30s in the next 48 hours.
The expectation is that she can rival Rishi and Mordaunt as a very serious player amongst MPs.
I still expect Truss to reach the last two and (though I am less sure here) win among the membership.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
Yes. I'd say that, but it's also as well to remember that most of the purported big freezes and heatwaves are hyped at best or made up at worst by the newspapers and when you double check with the Met Office to see what actually is coming it is nothing remotely of the kind.
So, Met Office forecasting 35 is something to keep an eye on - though again, looking with my northern eyes it is another 2 very hot days next weekend rather than a more long lasting heatwave and we dip back to 20 midweek, both this and next week.
The biggest hype is seen on weather forums...
Isn't the internet wonderful and peculiar? I love the thought that there are people debating the weather with the same fervency that politics is debated on here.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Blacks are killed by the police greater than their share of the population, but at about their share of convicted violent criminals, so it is far from certain that the high rate is unjustified overall, whatever may be the case in individual shootings.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
Like most things, it's complex.
If you live in - say - a nice part of Los Angeles, you will find that the police force is a largely multi-ethnic force, of whites, hispanics and African Americans, who treat pretty much everyone pretty well.
Sure, there are petty grumbles. But I - and none of my friends - have any cause to be upset with our local police force.
What is true of West Los Angeles is not true of everywhere.
There are cities in the US where African Americans make up four in ten of the population, but less than one in ten of the police. With high segregated geography, and no African Americans that have ever progressed beyond the rank of patrolman... well, when the cop car cruises by, it looks awfully like an occupying army.
From where I sit, I don't see much in the way of discrimination. In nice middle class areas, where jobs are plenty, schools are well funded and the offence most likely to get you in a courthouse is speeding... well, life is pretty good.
But I'd sure as shit not like to grow up as a poor black man in Alabama or Mississippi.
Interesting that school funding in America is positively correlated with the wealth of an area. The reverse is true in the UK, from my observations.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
Yes. I'd say that, but it's also as well to remember that most of the purported big freezes and heatwaves are hyped at best or made up at worst by the newspapers and when you double check with the Met Office to see what actually is coming it is nothing remotely of the kind.
So, Met Office forecasting 35 is something to keep an eye on - though again, looking with my northern eyes it is another 2 very hot days next weekend rather than a more long lasting heatwave and we dip back to 20 midweek, both this and next week.
The biggest hype is seen on weather forums...
Isn't the internet wonderful and peculiar? I love the thought that there are people debating the weather with the same fervency that politics is debated on here.
I think its worse than here tbh. Amazing passion and anger about snow/not snow in particular.
Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.
Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.
SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.
Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.
He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
Then the non Church of England PM has to appoint a new Church of England Lord Chancellor to replace them
What if he doesn't because he thinks it is all a lot of nonsense?
Then the Monarch as Supreme Governor of the Church of England in turn removes that PM and appoints a new one
Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.
Good thread on them, particularly brutally accurate on (lube up and get) Ready for Rishi.
Its absurd. We're already up to 11 declarations with more to follow probably. Some of them have less chance than I have. Braverman is a mentalist. Badenoch an unknown. The "I've been a minister for 2 days" man/woman - I literally have no clue who they are - a joke.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
I would just say on the allegations against Zahawi he dealt with them very well with Burley this morning and they do look as if they could be malicious
However, he ruled himself out for me with his chopping and changing in support of Johnson over just 24 hours
Yes I am in agreement with Zahawi, I find HMRC to be a bunch of malicious b******* too!
Its absurd. We're already up to 11 declarations with more to follow probably. Some of them have less chance than I have. Braverman is a mentalist. Badenoch an unknown. The "I've been a minister for 2 days" man/woman - I literally have no clue who they are - a joke.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
I would just say on the allegations against Zahawi he dealt with them very well with Burley this morning and they do look as if they could be malicious
However, he ruled himself out for me with his chopping and changing in support of Johnson over just 24 hours
Yes I am in agreement with Zahawi, I find HMRC to be a bunch of malicious b******* too!
I have mixed feelings over Zahawi.
On the plus side he has been competent in the various positions he has held - one of a handful along with Wallace and Gove in terms of getting things done and avoiding needless arguments with the stakeholders. Also it has to be said (though it shouldn't matter in his suitability for PM) he has a fab back story.
On the negative side he really screwed the pooch over the last week with taking the devil's coppers and then turning round and stabbing him in the front. Poor show and makes me distrustful of him.
Its absurd. We're already up to 11 declarations with more to follow probably. Some of them have less chance than I have. Braverman is a mentalist. Badenoch an unknown. The "I've been a minister for 2 days" man/woman - I literally have no clue who they are - a joke.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
I would just say on the allegations against Zahawi he dealt with them very well with Burley this morning and they do look as if they could be malicious
However, he ruled himself out for me with his chopping and changing in support of Johnson over just 24 hours
Yes I am in agreement with Zahawi, I find HMRC to be a bunch of malicious b******* too!
Comments
So, Met Office forecasting 35 is something to keep an eye on - though again, looking with my northern eyes it is another 2 very hot days next weekend rather than a more long lasting heatwave and we dip back to 20 midweek, both this and next week.
So, it shows the exact opposite of what you think it does.
If you live in - say - a nice part of Los Angeles, you will find that the police force is a largely multi-ethnic force, of whites, hispanics and African Americans, who treat pretty much everyone pretty well.
Sure, there are petty grumbles. But I - and none of my friends - have any cause to be upset with our local police force.
What is true of West Los Angeles is not true of everywhere.
There are cities in the US where African Americans make up four in ten of the population, but less than one in ten of the police. With high segregated geography, and no African Americans that have ever progressed beyond the rank of patrolman... well, when the cop car cruises by, it looks awfully like an occupying army.
From where I sit, I don't see much in the way of discrimination. In nice middle class areas, where jobs are plenty, schools are well funded and the offence most likely to get you in a courthouse is speeding... well, life is pretty good.
But I'd sure as shit not like to grow up as a poor black man in Alabama or Mississippi.
There's an argument to cut taxes for 2-3 years to encourage investment and growth, and ameliorate the cost of living crisis, and have a path to budget surplus by 2030, for example.
However, I have yet to see any candidate (including Rishi) set this out.
I'd be much more interested in hearing a sober analysis about our consistent underperformance since the GFC and a plan to tackle it.
Austerity to the max. If it goes ahead, then I will cut and run and take my pension.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tory-endorsements-for-next-leader
IMHO the bigger issue with American police is their Unions that defend any and every wrongdoing and their, general, itchy trigger finger.
I'd like to see them use non-lethal weapons (tasers etc) far more often.
The expectation is that she can rival Rishi and Mordaunt as a very serious player amongst MPs.
Before the current record was set in 2019, the all-time record high temperature was 38.1C, in 2003, breaking the 1990 record of 37.1C
These are not record temperatures that suggest temperatures of 35C are ordinary. I'd be really interested to know what proportion of years had a highest temperature of 35C or above, and the total number of days in the UK with a temperature observation of 35C or above. I'd expect both to be relatively low (but, alas, I don't have time to hunt the numbers down at the moment).
It's like how the GOP pass actual real laws banning books in schools and installing thought police at university but actually it is the left who are the real threat to free speech.
And personally, he's a bloody idiot. The country has been running a deficit for fifteen years now. We damn well need to start trying to run a surplus.
If it was a gentle joke, apologies for killing it with explanation!
However, he ruled himself out for me with his chopping and changing in support of Johnson over just 24 hours
30C was exceeded in every year, but iirc 35C was probably exceeded somewhere around 30-40% of recent years.
But to be charitable, perhaps his point was that we shouldn't JUST be that.
Yes - I'll concede that we don't get a UK high of over 35 every year. But thats partly randomness in a system. Undeniably there is an impact of climate change, but chiefly the heat from a spell like this, a plume, arises from weather patterns sending the heat north. Climate change has almost certainly given it more background heat to work from.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1546231925827846144
If I were Sunak and had support to spare, I'd be tempted to try and get someone helpful through the first stage.
https://twitter.com/_f_b_g_/status/1546240021937668101?s=21&t=rPFhDIvkGKjKEnt-uAAEqg
On the plus side he has been competent in the various positions he has held - one of a handful along with Wallace and Gove in terms of getting things done and avoiding needless arguments with the stakeholders. Also it has to be said (though it shouldn't matter in his suitability for PM) he has a fab back story.
On the negative side he really screwed the pooch over the last week with taking the devil's coppers and then turning round and stabbing him in the front. Poor show and makes me distrustful of him.