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Why Starmer can afford to be less timid on Brexit – politicalbetting.com

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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    EPG said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    A more tethered LD link would be harmful for Alliance as they would begin to ship blame inward from the "national" party. Itself a problematic word in NI, because around a third of voters don't feel nationally British and more on top of that don't feel mainstream British parties could represent them effectively. Most of the others think that mainstream British parties would overwhelm and betray their unionist priorities like in the 70s.
    The SDLP are supposed to be a "sister-party" to UK Labour, and the UUP have had a kind of "on-off" relationship with the Tories since 1972.
    Yes, good examples.
    The SDLP didn't get on with UK Labour in the 70s due to the security services policy. They also have a bad habit of on-off relationships with Irish Labour, Fianna Fáil and even liaisons with Fine Gael who used to get on best with the moderates in the Ulster Unionists.
    The UUP didn't have much leverage even after Major was being tested by the Maastricht rebels. Part of the series of events that made unionists ask, what's the point of you?
    Then there was UCUNF in 2010 which prompted the UUP's only MP to quit the party, and her voters agreed and chose her over UCUNF. The Conservatives now stand absentee paper candidates and hacked-off UUP exiters, and get two or three per cent of the CoI professional vote.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    She's almost the same age that Blair and Cameron were when they became prime minister, and obviously older than they were when they became party leader.
    Blair had been Shadow Home Secretary, Cameron was Shadow Education Secretary and involved in high level Westminster politics since advising Major and Lamont. Both were also of course Leader of the Opposition before being elected PM

  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Gove could be her Willie Whitelaw.
    Please, enough about Gove’s Willie tonight.

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    She's almost the same age that Blair and Cameron were when they became prime minister, and obviously older than they were when they became party leader.
    Blair had been Shadow Home Secretary, Cameron was Shadow Education Secretary and involved in high level Westminster politics since advising Major and Lamont.

    Hasn't it dawned on you that being a Minister under Mr Johnson is a positive demerit?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    Even if he were a svengali figure, he might very quickly find himself booted once Kemi got started, as many svengalis before him have.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,644
    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Inexperienced is a fair criticism for people to hold - she has been an MP for only 5 years and Junior Minister for 2 years - but young is not.

    She's the same age as RIshi, who only leaped into the Cabinet because his boss quit, and of Braverman, only 2 years younger than Cameron when he became PM.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Penny ‘Morduant’ some insider joke for the cool kids that I’ve missed? It’s getting as fckn hilarious as Sir Kier.

    She would be Britain's first Catholic PM although I don't think she's particularly religious.
    Eh? That can't be right, whether Anglican Catholic or Roman Catholic. Mr Johnson waves a hand re his marriage in a RC church, and his signing up to that kirk.
    Yes Johnson has already been our first Roman Catholic PM in office (Blair converted to Rome having left office). Tugendhat would be our second Roman Catholic PM in office, he is also part Jewish.

    Sunak would be our first Hindu PM too, Braverman the first Buddhist PM. Zahawi our first Muslim PM

    Wouldn’t it be good if nobody cared about the religious leanings of anyone, whether in politics or not.
    No, I am very interested in it
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,543
    edited July 2022
    On topic, there's a good reason that Starmer is timid on Brexit. He's made the judgement that the Tories will be desperate at the next GE to say that Labour backs the return of FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT, and he's petrified of this because he thinks that if they succeed Labour will fail to win numerous marginal seats. Conversely, the Tories are convinced they'll get another majority if they can persuade the public that Labour wants FOM back. So Starmer's trying to kill it stone dead.

    Talk about the Single Market, the Customs Union, close relations with the EU and so on are not the issue. Labour can't afford to be seen as advocating the return of FOM at the moment. So he's avoiding anything that could give the Tories the FOM ammunition - including SM, CU etc.

    You may not like it (I'm not very keen myself, as a pro-EU chap). But it's good politics, because, unfortunately, he's probably right. For the next GE.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,465
    On Kemi, I think she has promise, and I would be really interested to see her as Tory leader. But give her a few cabinet roles first, let her find her feet and build her profile and ideas.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,691
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    I agree with all that, but it makes her a loose cannon, not a puppet.
  • Options

    On topic, there's a good reason that Starmer is timid on Brexit. He's made the judgement that the Tories will be desperate at the next GE to say that Labour backs the return of FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT, and he's petrified of this because he thinks that if they succeed Labour will fail to win numerous marginal seats. Conversely, the Tories are convinced they'll get another majority if they can persuade the public that Labour wants FOM back. So Starmer's trying to kill it stone dead.

    Talk about the Single Market, the Customs Union, close relations with the EU and so on are not the issue. Labour can't afford to be seen as advocating the return of FOM at the moment. So he's avoiding anything that could give the Tories the FOM ammunition - including SM, CU etc.

    You may not like it (I'm not very keen myself, as a pro-EU chap). But it's good politics. For the next GE.

    I would argue everything he has done has been "good politics" despite what people on here say
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Gove could be her Willie Whitelaw.
    Please, enough about Gove’s Willie tonight.

    No need to be dicktatorial about it.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    ping said:

    FPT, cos I just spent ages typing it out…

    Scott_xP said:

    TOP EXCL in today's Paper
    Tory big beast (and king maker?) @michaelgove BACKS @KemiBadenoch to be the next Tory leader and PM.

    Writing for @TheSun he says Kemi has the "right stuff" to lead the UK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19155009/gove-backs-badenoch-tory-leadership/

    Jesus Christ, Gove’s getting some good shit. He’s off his tits.

    I know Badenoch is unlikely to get through to the membership, but I’m worried she will by some fluke, and if she does the batshit crazy membership might just give it to her.

    On a positive note, it would be great to see a black woman as PM.

    That’s the only positive I can see. Well, maybe the other one would be to make the Tories unelectable. Nothing to do with her gender, or colour. Entirely to do with the fact that she’s absolutely fucking mental.

    She’s the Tory id personified, right there before our eyes. Reduce the state to its bare essentials? I wonder what she sees as essential and what can be happily sacrificed as non-essential. You can guess, can’t you?

    Johnson’s done his job for the Tories. The conventional wisdom is that he has used the party simply to achieve power. Perhaps with time we’ll come to think that it was the party that has used Johnson. An unconventional politician who appealed to Leavers across the traditional spectrum and got us out of the EU. Jettisoned when his magic started to fade along,
    perhaps, with any pretence of levelling up; the party can bin all the Brexit ‘benefits’ the Red Wall seem to think is their due, that Johnson is the hapless face of, and shamelessly return to cutting and slashing and reducing the services that mean so much to the Red Wallers.

    Tragic, really, and completely amoral. But, hey, Tories gonna Tory.

    Yip.

    The naïveté of Aaron Bell - and the other red wall tories who turned on Johnson is incredible. He was the best they were gonna get, policy-wise. They should have kept their head down, played the game and begged for pork. It was deeply unpleasant, but that was the game that had to be played.

    I’ve never been a Johnson supporter, but called them out at the time - to universal derision on PB.

    They’ve fked their constituents. And probably lost their seats.
    Our Aaron turned on Johnson over the lying about parties in lockdown. iirc he had personal experience of missing a funeral or some such whilst Johnson was on the lash.

    Some things are are above the pork barrel.

    Wouldn’t it be good if MPs with principles, like Aaron, were able to defy national swings and get/stay elected. Sadly, history shows it rarely happens.
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156
    Spoke to my Local MP, who while he hasn't declared yet, said he is a big fan of Jeremy Hunt, said he is seen as the most competent and has good support amongst many back benchers, might be a bit of a dark horse for a flutter.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    On Kemi, I think she has promise, and I would be really interested to see her as Tory leader. But give her a few cabinet roles first, let her find her feet and build her profile and ideas.

    Agreed, personally I don't think anyone should be allowed to stand for PM who has not been a Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
    And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    On Kemi, I think she has promise, and I would be really interested to see her as Tory leader. But give her a few cabinet roles first, let her find her feet and build her profile and ideas.

    She might well be surprised if she ends up a front runner, and only wanted to get a promotion.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801

    OnboardG1 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Gove could be her Willie Whitelaw.
    Please, enough about Gove’s Willie tonight.

    No need to be dicktatorial about it.
    Rather surprised he's not standing for PM, all the same.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    That is like switching your scientist of choice from Stephen Hawking to Richard Hammond!

    It would also be quite a shock to have a PM educated at...Manchester Met
    Should we read anything into having Laura Pidcock Grant Shapps and Rebecca Long Bailey all educated at Manchester Metropolitan University? Is it to become the new 'Oxford' for the political class?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
    And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
    Then the non Church of England PM has to appoint a new Church of England Lord Chancellor to replace them
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited July 2022
    All the candidates must believe they have at least around 30 supporters which is a mathematical impossibility given how many are supporting Sunak. So a lot of MPs must be telling porkies to various candidates about whom they're supporting.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    On Kemi, I think she has promise, and I would be really interested to see her as Tory leader. But give her a few cabinet roles first, let her find her feet and build her profile and ideas.

    Agreed, personally I don't think anyone should be allowed to stand for PM who has not been a Cabinet Minister or Leader of the Opposition
    Such a rule may be unnecessary in the sense in the modern era I don't think anyone ever has become PM without that experience anyway. MPs don't want someone without experience entirely (even Tugendhat has a chairmanship).

    There's always the unlikely scenario of a LOTO losing their seat even as their party wins an election you'd need to account for.
  • Options
    Ashcroft seems to be a Kemi fan

    That could be a help in Tory circles
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Most Conservatives are Conservative and Unionist. I suspect our friend @HYUFD is Unionist and Conservative.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    Indeed.

    I spoke to a pollster not so long ago and they said over the last year they must have polled 50,000 people and nobody has ever mentioned trans issues as the most important/top three issues facing the country.

    It's the new phone hacking.
    And it isn't the electoral kryptonite that the GBNews crowd think. Shapps and Mordaunt are pretty much in line with mainstream polling on this. Most people are fairly chilled about it as an issue. There are some complexities but basically most Britons think Trans people should be allowed to live as they choose, provided they are fairly polite about it.

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/britons-and-gender-identity/
    Most people think this, yes, of course.
    Most people also think people who are clearly men but call themselves women should stay out of women's toilets or sporting events or hospital wards. And that we are perhaps being led down the wrong path when we are told about a flasher exposing 'her' penis. And that we ought be perhaps a tad concerned with the trans messaging being put about in schools, and wonder why so many autistic kids are transitioning.
    There have been people who have genuinely changed sex for decades. They are not very numerous and not really an issue. But they are not really the nub of what 'trans matters' are about.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    That is like switching your scientist of choice from Stephen Hawking to Richard Hammond!

    It would also be quite a shock to have a PM educated at...Manchester Met
    Should we read anything into having Laura Pidcock Grant Shapps and Rebecca Long Bailey all educated at Manchester Metropolitan University? Is it to become the new 'Oxford' for the political class?
    Until they all become PM, no.

    Though we would need to keep an eye on OGH's blood pressure if he has to write thread headers on 'Why do almost all our PMs come from Man Met?' rather than 'Why do almost all our PMs come from Oxford (my alma mater)?'
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    Andy_JS said:

    All the candidates must believe they have at least around 30 supporters which is a mathematical impossibility given how many are supporting Sunak. So a lot of MPs must be telling porkies to various candidates about whom they're supporting.

    Part of the fun. You'd want to spread your bets in terms of possible future patronage, anyway.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
    And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
    Religion is not discussed in Scotland because it becomes too hard to track the Presbyterian denominations.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,691

    Spoke to my Local MP, who while he hasn't declared yet, said he is a big fan of Jeremy Hunt, said he is seen as the most competent and has good support amongst many back benchers, might be a bit of a dark horse for a flutter.

    If he got into the members vote he would lose, even to the guy who no one has heard of.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    edited July 2022
    OnboardG1 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
    And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
    Religion is not discussed in Scotland because it becomes too hard to track the Presbyterian denominations.
    More correctly, only the RCs and Piskies tend to get quoted in the papers because the journos can never remember who is the Moderator of the Kirk of Scotland this year, never mind the Free Kirks.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Penny ‘Morduant’ some insider joke for the cool kids that I’ve missed? It’s getting as fckn hilarious as Sir Kier.

    She would be Britain's first Catholic PM although I don't think she's particularly religious.
    Eh? That can't be right, whether Anglican Catholic or Roman Catholic. Mr Johnson waves a hand re his marriage in a RC church, and his signing up to that kirk.
    Yes Johnson has already been our first Roman Catholic PM in office (Blair converted to Rome having left office). Tugendhat would be our second Roman Catholic PM in office, he is also part Jewish.

    Sunak would be our first Hindu PM too, Braverman the first Buddhist PM. Zahawi our first Muslim PM

    Wouldn’t it be good if nobody cared about the religious leanings of anyone, whether in politics or not.
    Not really. Some religious practices indicate poor judgement, like a Scientologist candidate for PM. Others are more borderline but inspire at least curiosity (this is where I put Braverman - I'd like to know more about her organisation).
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories

    Starmer doesn't need your vote, you don't live in a Tory marginal seat and you didn't vote Labour in 2017 but Tory in 2019. You are not a swing voter
    I see you are wrong as usual. I voted LibDem in 2017 and did not vote in 2019. I voted Tory in 2010 and 2015
    So as I said you are not the key swing voters he needs ie voted Tory in 2019.

    Do you live in the top 150 Labour target seats needed for a Labour majority? If not again Starmer is not really interested in your views
    In other words, will your vote help the Tories get elected. If not, fuck off, your are irrelevant.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    I think that does Kemi a massive disservice. Though it is true that any candidate would need to spread the load if yhey were to be successful in running the country.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt is favourite for the Scottish Tory vote

    Another Scottish Tory source said this regime had been “very divisive” and that Mordaunt would be a “unifying candidate”.

    An influential figure among grassroots Scottish Tories said they believed Mordaunt, who was the first female defence secretary, would be “very sellable in Scotland”.

    It is understood that Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is waiting to see the contenders before backing a candidate.

    Yesterday he predicted that the contest would provide a “very strong positive debate” about the future of the party and suggested there should be an overhaul of the UK government to remove Johnson loyalists.

    … Liz Truss, the foreign secretary… was met with scorn from several Conservative MSPs, who believe she would be “disastrous” for the Scottish party in a similar vein to Johnson, whose approval ratings dropped to a record low of -71 in Scotland last month.

    (The Times; €)

    Just pick any chimp at Edinburgh Zoo: there are 15 to choose from. Any would be more popular in Scotland than Mr J.

    Even the filthy bastard who poos in his own palm and then eats it?
    That’s a perfect description of Jackass.
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    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156
    Foxy said:

    Spoke to my Local MP, who while he hasn't declared yet, said he is a big fan of Jeremy Hunt, said he is seen as the most competent and has good support amongst many back benchers, might be a bit of a dark horse for a flutter.

    If he got into the members vote he would lose, even to the guy who no one has heard of.
    Agreed, when i tried telling him how unpopular Hunt is with the public, he seemed to turn off from the conversation and moved on.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291
    Carnyx said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
    Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
    The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
    And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
    Religion is not discussed in Scotland because it becomes too hard to track the Presbyterian denominations.
    More correctly, only the RCs and Piskies tend to get quoted in the papers because the journos can never remember who is the Moderator of the Kirk of Scotland this year, never mind the Free Kirks.
    Separation of church and state by obfuscation.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    I think I'd support Penny if I had a vote.

    The nonsense about Oscar Pistorius accidentally having a blink and you miss it appearance in her campaign video shows how scared of her the competition is IMO...
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,543
    All she needs now is for Laurence Fox, JHB, and Farage to back her.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited July 2022
    Sunak would probably win the members vote against Hunt. Would he win it against any of the other candidates, (excluding the likes of Chishti, Shapps, Braverman).
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    I’m quite keen on Irish reunification. So long as the Irish unionists are given a home in Scotland. The Scots often say that they’d like more immigrants.
    Once we’re independent they can decide whether they want to join us.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Most Conservatives are Conservative and Unionist. I suspect our friend @HYUFD is Unionist and Conservative.
    I'd say most Conservatives pick and choose which bits of Conservative ideology they like and which they can leave, whereas HYUFD believes fervently in all of them, even the bits like the CofE which are now thoroughly hostile to Conservatism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories

    Starmer doesn't need your vote, you don't live in a Tory marginal seat and you didn't vote Labour in 2017 but Tory in 2019. You are not a swing voter
    I see you are wrong as usual. I voted LibDem in 2017 and did not vote in 2019. I voted Tory in 2010 and 2015
    So as I said you are not the key swing voters he needs ie voted Tory in 2019.

    Do you live in the top 150 Labour target seats needed for a Labour majority? If not again Starmer is not really interested in your views
    In other words, will your vote help the Tories get elected. If not, fuck off, your are irrelevant.
    In this case it was will your vote help Labour get elected in a marginal seat, if not F off
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Most Conservatives are Conservative and Unionist. I suspect our friend @HYUFD is Unionist and Conservative.
    I'd say most Conservatives pick and choose which bits of Conservative ideology they like and which they can leave, whereas HYUFD believes fervently in all of them, even the bits like the CofE which are now thoroughly hostile to Conservatism.
    Even the contradictory ideologies!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,691

    All she needs now is for Laurence Fox, JHB, and Farage to back her.
    She has Darren Grimes and Spiked-online on her side.
  • Options
    My MP (Kruger) has declared for Braverman

    The only redeeming feature of this is that he might switch to Kemi if Suella gets knocked out first
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image
    So that’s what Victor Meldrew looked like when he was 40.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    My MP (Kruger) has declared for Braverman

    Freddie?

    One, two, Freddie's coming for you... 👀
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,691
    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And he wants to bring back fox hunting. He really has fired up the random policy generator.

    This lot seem determined to disprove the theory that no one could be worse than Johnson.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Most Conservatives are Conservative and Unionist. I suspect our friend @HYUFD is Unionist and Conservative.
    I'd say most Conservatives pick and choose which bits of Conservative ideology they like and which they can leave, whereas HYUFD believes fervently in all of them, even the bits like the CofE which are now thoroughly hostile to Conservatism.
    They aren't, Anglicans in England voted 30% more Tory than Labour in 2019 compared to a 12% Tory lead across the UK overall
    https://theconversation.com/britains-changing-religious-vote-why-catholics-are-leaving-labour-and-conservatives-are-hoovering-up-christian-support-157922
  • Options
    Cookie said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
    Wouldn’t both sides say that?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    O/T

    "Uber broke laws, duped police and secretly lobbied governments, leak reveals

    More than 124,000 confidential documents leaked to the Guardian
    Files expose attempts to lobby Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and George Osborne
    Emmanuel Macron secretly aided Uber lobbying in France, texts reveal
    Company used ‘kill switch’ during raids to stop police seeing data
    Former Uber CEO told executives ‘violence guarantees success’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/10/uber-files-leak-reveals-global-lobbying-campaign
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    I saw some research that suggested that Manchester was emerging as a clear second cluster for “future-tech” after London and its satellites, so hopefully skilled grads will ignore Jeremy Hunt.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Cookie said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
    Wouldn’t both sides say that?
    Probably. But that's why while some people are trying to make too much of a cultural war for partisan ends, we are in a cultural skirmish, it isn't simply an invention.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685

    My MP (Kruger) has declared for Braverman

    The only redeeming feature of this is that he might switch to Kemi if Suella gets knocked out first

    He's the MP who made the controversial statement about abortion IIRC.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    kle4 said:

    Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.

    Penny's is the best there. You're instantly drawn to the arrow which looks intriguing...
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    Given Gove’s face, that’s wise.
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country
    forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image
    So that’s what Victor Meldrew looked like when he was 40.
    I
    Don’t
    Believe
    It!
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image
    So that’s what Victor Meldrew looked like when he was 40.
    He’s a fiction clearly. This is like when that chap ran on to the pitch at the European final in a United kit.
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    My MP (Kruger) has declared for Braverman

    The only redeeming feature of this is that he might switch to Kemi if Suella gets knocked out first

    He's the MP who made the controversial statement about abortion IIRC.
    He said that women don't have full autonomy over their bodies

    Women don't. Women sometimes share their body with another body that it's illegal for them to abort

    It wasn't as controversial as a lot of people wanted it to be
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Gove could be her Willie Whitelaw.
    Everyone needs a Willie, although most candidates are just dicks.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,484
    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And there's a huge problem in a nutshell.

    A chunk of the Red Wall Brexit and Boris vote is about older people in small towns hating the way that their children and grandchildren have moved away.

    But the world where people stayed in their hometown and worked in whatever the town's industry was and didn't need a degree isn't coming back. In part because young people don't want it that way. But also because the things that make Britain money don't work like that.

    But hey, generating prosperity isn't as important as long as we all stay where we were born, eh?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Penny ‘Morduant’ some insider joke for the cool kids that I’ve missed? It’s getting as fckn hilarious as Sir Kier.

    She would be Britain's first Catholic PM although I don't think she's particularly religious.
    Eh? That can't be right, whether Anglican Catholic or Roman Catholic. Mr Johnson waves a hand re his marriage in a RC church, and his signing up to that kirk.
    Yes Johnson has already been our first Roman Catholic PM in office (Blair converted to Rome having left office). Tugendhat would be our second Roman Catholic PM in office, he is also part Jewish.

    Sunak would be our first Hindu PM too, Braverman the first Buddhist PM. Zahawi our first Muslim PM

    Wouldn’t it be good if nobody cared about the religious leanings of anyone, whether in politics or not.
    No, I am very interested in it
    There’s an opportunity for a thread header there, if you care to expand.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,543
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And he wants to bring back fox hunting. He really has fired up the random policy generator.

    This lot seem determined to disprove the theory that no one could be worse than Johnson.
    Hunt wants to bring back fox hunting?
    Not good news for you.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,691

    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And he wants to bring back fox hunting. He really has fired up the random policy generator.

    This lot seem determined to disprove the theory that no one could be worse than Johnson.
    Hunt wants to bring back fox hunting?
    Not good news for you.
    I will have to go to ground.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And there's a huge problem in a nutshell.

    A chunk of the Red Wall Brexit and Boris vote is about older people in small towns hating the way that their children and grandchildren have moved away.

    But the world where people stayed in their hometown and worked in whatever the town's industry was and didn't need a degree isn't coming back. In part because young people don't want it that way. But also because the things that make Britain money don't work like that.

    But hey, generating prosperity isn't as important as long as we all stay where we were born, eh?
    Though the need to move away, while it hasn't gone away, has become less acute with homeworking.
    I'm not saying everyone should stay where they are. Far from it. But I am very interested in concepts of home; I am quite rooted in my own rather broad home territory, but I think those with stronger, deeper roots to a particular place - those who have always lived in the same few square miles, and whose parents are from there too, and so on - are very lucky indeed.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    That is like switching your scientist of choice from Stephen Hawking to Richard Hammond!

    It would also be quite a shock to have a PM educated at...Manchester Met
    Should we read anything into having Laura Pidcock Grant Shapps and Rebecca Long Bailey all educated at Manchester Metropolitan University? Is it to become the new 'Oxford' for the political class?
    Until they all become PM, no.

    Though we would need to keep an eye on OGH's blood pressure if he has to write thread headers on 'Why do almost all our PMs come from Man Met?' rather than 'Why do almost all our PMs come from Oxford (my alma mater)?'
    Looking at that list, if any of my family wanted a career in politics, I would discourage them from attending Manchester Metropolitan University.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And there's a huge problem in a nutshell.

    A chunk of the Red Wall Brexit and Boris vote is about older people in small towns hating the way that their children and grandchildren have moved away.

    But the world where people stayed in their hometown and worked in whatever the town's industry was and didn't need a degree isn't coming back. In part because young people don't want it that way. But also because the things that make Britain money don't work like that.

    But hey, generating prosperity isn't as important as long as we all stay where we were born, eh?
    Serfdom it is.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.

    Penny's is the best there. You're instantly drawn to the arrow which looks intriguing...
    I can't help, at first glance, reading TT's slogan as 'A clean shirt'. Which is, you know, commendable, but leaves me wanting something more.
    Team Saj's logo is rubbish.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    And he wants to bring back fox hunting. He really has fired up the random policy generator.
    .
    It's not happening. What PM is going to take up valuable time and political capital on such an issue? As an appeal it is clearly one he is not going to deliver on.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    EPG said:

    Hunt today included Manchester in the list of places to which it's unacceptable for people to move to be better-off. I get it electorally, but if you exclude basically anywhere with a university, you are going to collide with skilled graduate preferences and economic geography.

    Why would anyone want to move to Manchester? It’s like London without the culture.
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    Sajid ‘the Jav’ appears to be in trouble
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
    Wouldn’t both sides say that?
    Probably. But that's why while some people are trying to make too much of a cultural war for partisan ends, we are in a cultural skirmish, it isn't simply an invention.
    Yes, and while both sides do say ghat, it is easy to tell which side is telling the truth and which side is simply gaslighting by looking at which side represents views which would have been taken as read until very recently and which side represents views which would be considered insane until very recently.
    There is often a respectable argument for cultural change. But it needs to be far more convincing than "we're not the ones arguing for cultural change, you are".
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    Cookie said:

    Off topic, but I've been to Trent Bridge today to watch England play India in the last game of the 2020 series. A few observations:
    - Trent Bridge is gorgeous. My closest ground, Old Trafford, is many things, but not gorgeous. Trent Bridge, at least in parts, was like being in an idealised version of the 1930s. And the hanging baskets! There is no need, no commercial justification, for so many hanging baskets; they can be there only because people at Nottinghamshire clearly care very much about making the place look gorgeous.
    - Indians: it is so deliciously easy to goad Indians into enthusiasm. What a fabulous crowd. There were a couple of fellas a few rows in front of me in traditional Indian dress - they must have been sweltering - who celebrated every 6 with what I can only describe as a Morris Dance, repeat with sticks. I know that one theory of the origin of Morris Dancing is that the name comes from 'Moorish' - 'Moorish', in those days being used to mean anywhere more exotic than France - I wonder if the ancestors of Morris are Indian? One for @Morris_Dancer?
    - Notable how many families of India supporters had younger members supporting England. One young girl from a family of India supporters had come with a banner lengthily explaining how she loved both England and India. This made me happy. I think Norman Tebbit might also be grudgingly satisfied. I stick to my assertion the other day that cricket is a strong net positive for race relations in this country.
    - Sat next to an 18 year old lad from Birmingham; English, of Anglo-Pakistani heritage. Very chatty, enthusiastic about everything. Sadly the only one of his mates interested in cricket; happily not dissuaded by this and quite happy to get a coach from Birmingham on his own and see who he got chatting to. He had been interested in cricket by T20 but got hooked on the game from the hundred last year. I have therefore slightly revised my opinion of the hundred upwards a bit. He was waiting for his A level results and hopes to do medicine at Birmingham and I hope he is successful. The world needs more people like him.

    A couple observations.
    Folk from the Indian subcontinent are the nicest people in the world; even nicer than folk from the Caribbean.
    Nottingham is a great place with great people.
    The fact that you have to mention commercial justification is a sad reflection on today’s society.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    Sajid ‘the Jav’ appears to be in trouble

    Let's face it The Saj is a waste of space. Always been massively over promoted...
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    Ok, off to bed. Behave yourselves, folks.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited July 2022
    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.

    Penny's is the best there. You're instantly drawn to the arrow which looks intriguing...
    I can't help, at first glance, reading TT's slogan as 'A clean shirt'. Which is, you know, commendable, but leaves me wanting something more.
    Team Saj's logo is rubbish.
    The thing is, 99% of the selectorate will see "A clean start" from this Candidate as = "cancel Brexit"

    "A clean start" might work for someone like Sue-Ellen but for Tom Tugandugan with con members "a clean start" looks ominous...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    Prediction time: I think the final two could be Mordaunt and Badenoch. Sunak will fade and the Stop Liz Truss vote will get behind Badenoch.

    I think this is very unlikely, but the mere fact you've predicted it gives me cheer. I will doff my metaphorical hat to you if you are right.
    My prediction is one which will give me no points whatever for soothsaying - never satisfying to predict the outcome which appears most obvious - that it will be a run off between Sunak and Truss, with Truss winning the membership vote.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited July 2022

    Prediction time: I think the final two could be Mordaunt and Badenoch. Sunak will fade and the Stop Liz Truss vote will get behind Badenoch.

    It's difficult to predict which of those two would win with the members.

    But I find it difficult to envisage Sunak not getting into the top two with MPs.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    Cookie said:

    Off topic, but I've been to Trent Bridge today to watch England play India in the last game of the 2020 series. A few observations:
    - Trent Bridge is gorgeous. My closest ground, Old Trafford, is many things, but not gorgeous. Trent Bridge, at least in parts, was like being in an idealised version of the 1930s. And the hanging baskets! There is no need, no commercial justification, for so many hanging baskets; they can be there only because people at Nottinghamshire clearly care very much about making the place look gorgeous.
    - Indians: it is so deliciously easy to goad Indians into enthusiasm. What a fabulous crowd. There were a couple of fellas a few rows in front of me in traditional Indian dress - they must have been sweltering - who celebrated every 6 with what I can only describe as a Morris Dance, repeat with sticks. I know that one theory of the origin of Morris Dancing is that the name comes from 'Moorish' - 'Moorish', in those days being used to mean anywhere more exotic than France - I wonder if the ancestors of Morris are Indian? One for @Morris_Dancer?
    - Notable how many families of India supporters had younger members supporting England. One young girl from a family of India supporters had come with a banner lengthily explaining how she loved both England and India. This made me happy. I think Norman Tebbit might also be grudgingly satisfied. I stick to my assertion the other day that cricket is a strong net positive for race relations in this country.
    - Sat next to an 18 year old lad from Birmingham; English, of Anglo-Pakistani heritage. Very chatty, enthusiastic about everything. Sadly the only one of his mates interested in cricket; happily not dissuaded by this and quite happy to get a coach from Birmingham on his own and see who he got chatting to. He had been interested in cricket by T20 but got hooked on the game from the hundred last year. I have therefore slightly revised my opinion of the hundred upwards a bit. He was waiting for his A level results and hopes to do medicine at Birmingham and I hope he is successful. The world needs more people like him.

    I agree about Trent Bridge. I was lucky enough to be there on days 4 and 5 of the test match.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Seriously that's your 'logo' Michael? Javid's is lame but at least he has a nickname to make use of (I'd have gone for 'Rise of The Saj'). Tugendhat's looks a bit cluttered to me, but at least he's gone for a logo, included his name, and a message to be clear.

    Penny's is the best there. You're instantly drawn to the arrow which looks intriguing...
    Her new tagline of 'website' is a bit cryptic though. I preferred 'a bit less about the leader, a lot more about the ship'.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    The race is on. And a good debate in evidence here tonight.

    Unfortunately though, (and notably after the lagershed), we regrettably see, once again, some PBers schoolboy humour emerging - with jokes about Willies etc!

    PB is at it's best when we are modern and mature. Some posters comments tonight have been frankly DICKensian.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited July 2022
    First ballot on Wednesday 13th, second on Thursday 14th, third on the following Tuesday 19th, next day of voting on Wednesday 20th. But there could be two ballots on Tuesday 19th if necessary, ie. more than 3 candidates at that stage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/10/1922-committee-rules-how-tories-will-elect-new-prime-minister/
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,891
    edited July 2022
    FPT:

    💥 NEW: Senior Tories want to rapidly thin out the field of leadership candidates

    One senior MP close to 1922 committee it was “likely” candidates must secure the support of at least 10% of the parliamentary party to get on to the ballot paper - 36 MPs

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1546214174883303427

    Apologies if I have missed this while being a long way up a misty moody Norwegian fjord but has the timetable been set yet?

    Oldevatnet, Norway:
    image
    Ruh roh!

    Here's one I took much earlier...



    Where did Briksdalsbreen go? I know it was there, because I went for a walk on it. Glacial retreat!

    I don't imagine Jostedalsbreen has disappeared, mind.

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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    I find it extremely odd that Truss’ telegraph piece is behind a paywall. Surely she could have negotiated with them to make it freely accessible?!

    Amateur error.
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    First ballot on Wednesday 13th, second on Thursday 14th, third on the following Tuesday 19th, next day of voting on Wednesday 20th. But there could be two ballots on Tuesday 19th if necessary, ie. more than 3 candidates at that stage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/10/1922-committee-rules-how-tories-will-elect-new-prime-minister/

    Pft. They’re making a dogs dinner out of it.

    They should have kept it simple - Monday/Wednesday/Friday at noon until there are only two left.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    The red wall would be crazy to vote anyone but Sunak. Even if his spend is unsustainable, every other candidate is promising to revert to pre-Johnson spending instincts that would split vulnerable coalitions in deprived and improving areas.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    FWIW, I think the biggest loser this weekend has been Sunak.

    It's clear he was looking for the momentum for him to be so strong that his coronation looked inevitable. Not only has that not happened but several other credible alternatives have come thorough and it's clear BoJo's team is out to get him. As has been noted, he's lived a charmed life up to now where has has never failed. What happens if things don't start going his way.

    Re Badenoch, kicking myself for not backing her at the longer odds. However, I do wonder if Gove'a backing is a blessing or a curse - if she's seen as his puppet, that may put off a fair few MPs

    Still thinking Hunt looks good odds.


    Andy_JS said:

    Prediction time: I think the final two could be Mordaunt and Badenoch. Sunak will fade and the Stop Liz Truss vote will get behind Badenoch.

    It's difficult to predict which of those two would win with the members.

    But I find it difficult to envisage Sunak not getting into the top two with MPs.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,685
    edited July 2022
    Latest WH odds:

    1. Sunak 2.62
    2. Mordaunt 4
    3. Truss 5
    4. Badenoch 11
    5. Hunt 12
    6. Tugendhat 13
    7. Zahawi 17
    8. Javid 21
    9. Braverman 26
    10.Patel 41
    Shapps 67

    https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,429
    HYUFD said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    That is like switching your scientist of choice from Stephen Hawking to Richard Hammond!

    It would also be quite a shock to have a PM educated at...Manchester Met
    Are you sure you've got your scientists the right way round? Shapps has got a lot more Cabinet experience than Tugendhat, who has never been a minister.
This discussion has been closed.