Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Why Starmer can afford to be less timid on Brexit – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • Options
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    I’m quite keen on Irish reunification. So long as the Irish unionists are given a home in Scotland. The Scots often say that they’d like more immigrants.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    With Rehman Chishti now running, this takes us too 11 declared candidates (possible 12 is Patel runs as well)

    This has now overtaken Tory 2019 campaign as the most candidates ever for a UK major party leadership election.

    Will that be official if some of them do not make the formal submission stage? If the threshold is raised, that might prevent some of them making it and getting the record.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    FPT, cos I just spent ages typing it out…

    Scott_xP said:

    TOP EXCL in today's Paper
    Tory big beast (and king maker?) @michaelgove BACKS @KemiBadenoch to be the next Tory leader and PM.

    Writing for @TheSun he says Kemi has the "right stuff" to lead the UK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19155009/gove-backs-badenoch-tory-leadership/

    Jesus Christ, Gove’s getting some good shit. He’s off his tits.

    I know Badenoch is unlikely to get through to the membership, but I’m worried she will by some fluke, and if she does the batshit crazy membership might just give it to her.

    On a positive note, it would be great to see a black woman as PM.

    That’s the only positive I can see. Well, maybe the other one would be to make the Tories unelectable. Nothing to do with her gender, or colour. Entirely to do with the fact that she’s absolutely fucking mental.

    She’s the Tory id personified, right there before our eyes. Reduce the state to its bare essentials? I wonder what she sees as essential and what can be happily sacrificed as non-essential. You can guess, can’t you?

    Johnson’s done his job for the Tories. The conventional wisdom is that he has used the party simply to achieve power. Perhaps with time we’ll come to think that it was the party that has used Johnson. An unconventional politician who appealed to Leavers across the traditional spectrum and got us out of the EU. Jettisoned when his magic started to fade along,
    perhaps, with any pretence of levelling up; the party can bin all the Brexit ‘benefits’ the Red Wall seem to think is their due, that Johnson is the hapless face of, and shamelessly return to cutting and slashing and reducing the services that mean so much to the Red Wallers.

    Tragic, really, and completely amoral. But, hey, Tories gonna Tory.

    As far as I can see, the problem with Kemi Badenoch is that her Ministerial experience is very limited; it largely relates to culture war type issues. I think she has made a good effort on this front, and I am personally supportive of her stance; but it hasn't made that much of an impact, the culture war for the tories is far from won; in fact they seem to be losing it despite being in government. It has actually got to the point where tory MP's put up posts on facebook asking constituents to write to them about it, because it just isn't that salient. People don't care. They should care, but they don't care.
    Yes. Badenoch would be an outrageous gamble.
    Almost a Hail Mary.
    She's utterly unknown and completely untested.
    In April 2018, The Mail on Sunday obtained a video of an interview that Badenoch did with Core Politics, where she confessed to hacking into the website of a Labour MP in 2008.[31][32] The MP in question was Harriet Harman, who was then Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. Harman accepted Badenoch's apology, but the matter was reported to Action Fraud, the UK's cyber crime reporting centre.[33][34]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch
    Computer whizz too!
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Stick a pin on the donkeys.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    Swiftly to withdraw as he fails to get the nominations by Wednesday night
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    But the point is that Brexit hasn't. A large chunk of the "United Kingdom" has been left in limbo. Self-evidently, Brexit has not been completed. And one very, very, very obvious solution is to let NI separate from the UK and merge with Ireland.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,644
    kle4 said:

    Which candidate will be the first to say the following, and how long before they all follow suit?

    "I would cut taxes massively, increase spending massively, and improve every government service (with half the staff) before the next election, and take no nonsense from any court (foreign or domestic).

    When I worked in marketing for one of the big computer manufacturers in the 1980s the MD called a ra ra motivation meeting. In his speech he stated we were going to focus on the base. Lots more blah blah and then said we would be focusing on new business. Lots more blah blah and he said we would be focusing on costs.

    Eventually one employee (who presumably didn't value his job) pointed out that meant we were focusing on everything (or in other words nothing).

    We all came away thinking the MD was a Pillock.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt is favourite for the Scottish Tory vote

    Another Scottish Tory source said this regime had been “very divisive” and that Mordaunt would be a “unifying candidate”.

    An influential figure among grassroots Scottish Tories said they believed Mordaunt, who was the first female defence secretary, would be “very sellable in Scotland”.

    It is understood that Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is waiting to see the contenders before backing a candidate.

    Yesterday he predicted that the contest would provide a “very strong positive debate” about the future of the party and suggested there should be an overhaul of the UK government to remove Johnson loyalists.

    … Liz Truss, the foreign secretary… was met with scorn from several Conservative MSPs, who believe she would be “disastrous” for the Scottish party in a similar vein to Johnson, whose approval ratings dropped to a record low of -71 in Scotland last month.

    (The Times; €)

    Just pick any chimp at Edinburgh Zoo: there are 15 to choose from. Any would be more popular in Scotland than Mr J.

    Even the filthy bastard who poos in his own palm and then eats it?
    Well, perhaps not that one!
    Nope, he’s still better than the fat albino one who throws his shit around and expects everyone else to eat it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    News from 🇩🇪 ex-Chancellor and Putin friend Gerhard Schröder, Mr. “I don’t do Mea Culpa.”

    Speaking to FAZ newspaper, Schröder blamed Ukraine for being responsible that negotiations with Russia haven’t led to peace yet, and asks: “Why we concentrate on delivering weapons”to Kiev?


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1546202734155767808
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,689
    darkage said:

    FPT, cos I just spent ages typing it out…

    Scott_xP said:

    TOP EXCL in today's Paper
    Tory big beast (and king maker?) @michaelgove BACKS @KemiBadenoch to be the next Tory leader and PM.

    Writing for @TheSun he says Kemi has the "right stuff" to lead the UK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19155009/gove-backs-badenoch-tory-leadership/

    Jesus Christ, Gove’s getting some good shit. He’s off his tits.

    I know Badenoch is unlikely to get through to the membership, but I’m worried she will by some fluke, and if she does the batshit crazy membership might just give it to her.

    On a positive note, it would be great to see a black woman as PM.

    That’s the only positive I can see. Well, maybe the other one would be to make the Tories unelectable. Nothing to do with her gender, or colour. Entirely to do with the fact that she’s absolutely fucking mental.

    She’s the Tory id personified, right there before our eyes. Reduce the state to its bare essentials? I wonder what she sees as essential and what can be happily sacrificed as non-essential. You can guess, can’t you?

    Johnson’s done his job for the Tories. The conventional wisdom is that he has used the party simply to achieve power. Perhaps with time we’ll come to think that it was the party that has used Johnson. An unconventional politician who appealed to Leavers across the traditional spectrum and got us out of the EU. Jettisoned when his magic started to fade along,
    perhaps, with any pretence of levelling up; the party can bin all the Brexit ‘benefits’ the Red Wall seem to think is their due, that Johnson is the hapless face of, and shamelessly return to cutting and slashing and reducing the services that mean so much to the Red Wallers.

    Tragic, really, and completely amoral. But, hey, Tories gonna Tory.

    As far as I can see, the problem with Kemi Badenoch is that her Ministerial experience is very limited; it largely relates to culture war type issues. I think she has made a good effort on this front, and I am personally supportive of her stance; but it hasn't made that much of an impact, the culture war for the tories is far from won; in fact they seem to be losing it despite being in government. It has actually got to the point where tory MP's put up posts on facebook asking constituents to write to them about it, because it just isn't that salient. People don't care. They should care, but they don't care.
    The Tories are not going to win an election with culture war issues that few care about, particularly in the middle of the worst economic situation in decades.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    Just waiting for Uncle Tom Cobley to announce.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    But the point is that Brexit hasn't. A large chunk of the "United Kingdom" has been left in limbo. Self-evidently, Brexit has not been completed. And one very, very, very obvious solution is to let NI separate from the UK and merge with Ireland.
    No, the UK government has just passed the first stage of legislation which will remove the Irish Sea border
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    But the point is that Brexit hasn't. A large chunk of the "United Kingdom" has been left in limbo. Self-evidently, Brexit has not been completed. And one very, very, very obvious solution is to let NI separate from the UK and merge with Ireland.
    No, the UK government has just passed the first stage of legislation which will remove the Irish Sea border
    I have this bridge with flowers all along it to sell you ...
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,644
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    Brexit had been delivered - lol
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    It’s a good thing he included a photo so that people who’ve never heard of him at least know what he looks like.

    image
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    Quite impressed with Guy Opperman when he doesn't have anyone to be slavishly loyal to.
    He's actually articulate and human. Too much toadying or he could make a decent fist of a leadership bid. He's better than half of those declared.
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156
    kle4 said:

    With Rehman Chishti now running, this takes us too 11 declared candidates (possible 12 is Patel runs as well)

    This has now overtaken Tory 2019 campaign as the most candidates ever for a UK major party leadership election.

    Will that be official if some of them do not make the formal submission stage? If the threshold is raised, that might prevent some of them making it and getting the record.
    Ah, good point, having done some further digging it only counts if they are still running when nominations close.

    Turns out 2019 had 13 in total, 3 withdrawing just before ballots closed, so 10 official candidates.

    Apologies, my mistake.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Carnyx said:

    If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories

    Which is a particularly interesting point from a Scottish point of view. Not to mention NI.
    NI is disenfranchised anyway. No one living there can vote for a GB party. All they have to choose from is ex-terrorists and religious nutters who can never form a government in their own right.
    The SDLP, APNI and UUP are OK.
    SDLP has 2 MPs, Alliance has 1 MP and UUP have none. They are not exactly in a position to form a majority at Westminster. All of them need another few hundred MPs
    The people of NI have deliberately picked the extremists. Because the U.K. government and the Dublin government listened to the extremists concerns, and gave them concessions. The UUP and SDLP were told to sit at the back of the room and not make too much noise. Alliance was ignored completely.
    By and large there are only extremists to pick. The UUP and SDLP are less extreme. The Alliance are about the only bunch with a reasonable political heritage and outlook so it has been encouraging to see their vote share increasing.

    But no one in NI can vote Labour, Conservative or LibDem.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    We see this pie chart and argument every few months. The point, surely, is that Labour needs to do more than hold onto its current voters to win. Swing voters who'll decide the election are by definition more ambivalent on Brexit.

    Taken another way, this shows that Labour is failing to win many votes from the very significant chunk of the country that is favourable towards Brexit, and in electoral terms that's a problem for them.
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    Carnyx said:

    If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories

    Which is a particularly interesting point from a Scottish point of view. Not to mention NI.
    NI is disenfranchised anyway. No one living there can vote for a GB party. All they have to choose from is ex-terrorists and religious nutters who can never form a government in their own right.
    The SDLP, APNI and UUP are OK.
    SDLP has 2 MPs, Alliance has 1 MP and UUP have none. They are not exactly in a position to form a majority at Westminster. All of them need another few hundred MPs
    The people of NI have deliberately picked the extremists. Because the U.K. government and the Dublin government listened to the extremists concerns, and gave them concessions. The UUP and SDLP were told to sit at the back of the room and not make too much noise. Alliance was ignored completely.
    By and large there are only extremists to pick. The UUP and SDLP are less extreme. The Alliance are about the only bunch with a reasonable political heritage and outlook so it has been encouraging to see their vote share increasing.

    But no one in NI can vote Labour, Conservative or LibDem.
    You think David Trimble and Seamus Mallon were extreme?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,689

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    But which Grant Shapps?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Personally, I think it is time for NI to leave the UK.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    He says it is about 'aspirational conservatism', and as we all know aspirational is usually code for 'not going to happen', as presumably his bid is aspirational too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2022

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    That is like switching your scientist of choice from Stephen Hawking to Richard Hammond!

    It would also be quite a shock to have a PM educated at...Manchester Met
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,204
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    Brexit had been delivered - lol
    It absolutely has. We have left the EU. The impact of Brexit may be shit, although benefits were always going to be intangible and long term, but we are no longer paying money into the EU coffers and no longer a part of the EU undemocratic p9litical structure.
    For better or worse (most think worse) we are in the post Brexit phase, and trying to sort out the best position we can outside the EU. The current lot won’t do the right thing and align as close as possible, but a new government should.

    But none of that means Brexit has been delivered. The package is shit, but it’s come to your door.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,644
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    But the point is that Brexit hasn't. A large chunk of the "United Kingdom" has been left in limbo. Self-evidently, Brexit has not been completed. And one very, very, very obvious solution is to let NI separate from the UK and merge with Ireland.
    No, the UK government has just passed the first stage of legislation which will remove the Irish Sea border
    How is that going to work then?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2022

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Personally, I think it is time for NI to leave the UK.
    Who could have guessed from your symbol?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    edited July 2022

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.

    The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.

    I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.

    Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/07/how-do-english-and-welsh-people-feel-about-scotlan

    Brexit has already been delivered
    But the point is that Brexit hasn't. A large chunk of the "United Kingdom" has been left in limbo. Self-evidently, Brexit has not been completed. And one very, very, very obvious solution is to let NI separate from the UK and merge with Ireland.
    No, the UK government has just passed the first stage of legislation which will remove the Irish Sea border
    How is that going to work then?
    It also rather tends to prove that Brexit has not been delivered!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,130
    Carnyx said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    Well, he can't even decide what he's called himself can he?
    I have a couple of suggestions.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
    The DUP and TUV are "left-leaning' as regards tax and spend.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,801

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    You think it's not about who has the biggest wet bulb?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.

    The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.

    I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
    What other European nation had an Empire comprising 1/3 of the globe with historic links to them!
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    But, and say it again, the Tory membership and parliamentary party are loopy and want to pick this fight when no one else cares. I care about my wage packet and if I can afford my bills. Material circumstances and all that unfashionable socialist shit.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.

    That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
    Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
    Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye.
    Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
    Personally, I think it is time for NI to leave the UK.
    Who could have guessed from your symbol?
    JFC, you sound like a red wall Tory.
    Could *have* guessed.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    People don't need to obsess over the debate. Don't just follow any suggestion made, as there will be silly ones, but hunting for outrages is best done by amateurs, not politicians.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291
    HYUFD said:

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.

    The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.

    I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
    What other European nation had an Empire comprising 1/3 of the globe with historic links to them!
    France (bar sheer size), but they’re even more Xenophobic than we are.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    dixiedean said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
    The DUP and TUV are "left-leaning' as regards tax and spend.
    Wiki's got them both down as right-wing and conservative:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditional_Unionist_Voice
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    Slightly playing devils advocate here, but surely as broader field as possible is a good thing, even if some of the candidates go nowhere.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,644
    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    It's the obvious answer, but some seem to think we are going down some woke hell hole.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    edited July 2022
    Nobody but Grant Shapps I think has actually mentioned cost of living except as a throwaway alongside “woke”, “tax cuts”, and “Brexit opportunities”.

    You could argue tax cuts help the cost of living I suppose…
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291

    dixiedean said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
    The DUP and TUV are "left-leaning' as regards tax and spend.
    Wiki's got them both down as right-wing and conservative:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditional_Unionist_Voice
    Wikipedia struggle a bit with categorising social/economic complexities of parties
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    He may struggle with the fresh "team" bit with zero nominations.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    Who?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    A more tethered LD link would be harmful for Alliance as they would begin to ship blame inward from the "national" party. Itself a problematic word in NI, because around a third of voters don't feel nationally British and more on top of that don't feel mainstream British parties could represent them effectively. Most of the others think that mainstream British parties would overwhelm and betray their unionist priorities like in the 70s.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    Who?
    In this field I think that’s a positive.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156

    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    Indeed.

    I spoke to a pollster not so long ago and they said over the last year they must have polled 50,000 people and nobody has ever mentioned trans issues as the most important/top three issues facing the country.

    It's the new phone hacking.
    On a slightly similar point to counter that, i would suggest that "Antisemtism also would incredibly rarely feature in the top 3, but that was a huge issue for Corbyn.

    I would suggest no one would rank in such a large issue to vote for a party, but it might feature reasonably high in a reason to specifically NOT vote for a party.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    edited July 2022

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    Slightly playing devils advocate here, but surely as broader field as possible is a good thing, even if some of the candidates go nowhere.
    The parliamentary party (and in some senses the country) have two weeks to figure out if there’s anyone there who’s not going to cause a run on the pound*

    Unless you really think you have a chance, or have some significant faction behind you which want to represented in the next government, you are simply a narcissist who is wasting everyone’s time.

    *slight hyperbole.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,590
    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Carnyx said:

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    You think it's not about who has the biggest wet bulb?
    According to rumour, that’s Michael Gove.
  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 156

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    Slightly playing devils advocate here, but surely as broader field as possible is a good thing, even if some of the candidates go nowhere.
    The parliamentary party (and in some senses the country) have two weeks to figure out if there’s anyone there who’s not going to cause a run on the pound*

    Unless you really think you have a chance, or have some significant faction behind you which want to represented in the next government, you are simply a narcissist who is wasting everyone’s time.

    *slight hyperbole.
    Valid point, well presented
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,689
    edited July 2022

    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    Indeed.

    I spoke to a pollster not so long ago and they said over the last year they must have polled 50,000 people and nobody has ever mentioned trans issues as the most important/top three issues facing the country.

    It's the new phone hacking.
    And it isn't the electoral kryptonite that the GBNews crowd think. Shapps and Mordaunt are pretty much in line with mainstream polling on this. Most people are fairly chilled about it as an issue. There are some complexities but basically most Britons think Trans people should be allowed to live as they choose, provided they are fairly polite about it.

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/britons-and-gender-identity/
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291

    Carnyx said:

    Who the hell is Rehman Chishti.
    What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.

    Bit of a strong reaction, don't get me wrong he probably has no chance, but then again, same was thought about Corbyn.
    This is be the next Prime Minister of the country, not a fucking “biggest leek” competition at the county show.
    You think it's not about who has the biggest wet bulb?
    According to rumour, that’s Michael Gove.
    That’s not something I needed to imagine before bed.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    OnboardG1 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rehman Chishti
    @Rehman_Chishti

    I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1546240922043695107

    Who?
    In this field I think that’s a positive.
    Sorry but the idea that someone 99% of the country has never heard of can be made Prime Minister is for the birds

    These people are just wasting everyone's time and making utter fools of themselves!

    1922 needs to bring in a minimum threshold of 25 nominations or something to get these timewasters out of the competition.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    EPG said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    A more tethered LD link would be harmful for Alliance as they would begin to ship blame inward from the "national" party. Itself a problematic word in NI, because around a third of voters don't feel nationally British and more on top of that don't feel mainstream British parties could represent them effectively. Most of the others think that mainstream British parties would overwhelm and betray their unionist priorities like in the 70s.
    The SDLP are supposed to be a "sister-party" to UK Labour, and the UUP have had a kind of "on-off" relationship with the Tories since 1972.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,816

    Pro_Rata said:

    I think Starmer's line is practical rather than anything else.

    A formal readmission to SM either which would either be via EFTA or reaccession or, perhaps, Swiss trilateralism will take time.

    Confirming closer SM alignment for goods that was never in reality torn down and getting easing of customs and equivalence requirements can start generating wins in the first few months, and does no harm to the possibilty of larger scale reversal further down the line.

    You don't envisage any divergence then?
    I think the fuller Labour plan was to diverge on Financial Services. but seek equivalence on food and farming and vet standards. Can't rule out that the Tories align us with US food standards for sheer, Gordon Brown like, wrecking shithorsery (and even then the US may say, no can do, NI), but depends how embedded and how much value such a deal brings and untying it could be possible.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    💥 NEW: Senior Tories want to rapidly thin out the field of leadership candidates

    One senior MP close to 1922 committee it was “likely” candidates must secure the support of at least 10% of the parliamentary party to get on to the ballot paper - 36 MPs
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
  • Options
    The long awaited sequel to the Cucumber Chronicles, the Tomato Tales, may already be overgrown.

    I don’t have a stepladder, so have had to balance on the end of a wooden wine box just to water my plants. I haven’t been pruning the tomatoes at all.

    This is a third of one of the plants. The number of flowers is ridiculous. I’m feeding them loads and keeping my fingers crossed.


  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    edited July 2022
    test
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    OnboardG1 said:

    dixiedean said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
    The DUP and TUV are "left-leaning' as regards tax and spend.
    Wiki's got them both down as right-wing and conservative:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditional_Unionist_Voice
    Wikipedia struggle a bit with categorising social/economic complexities of parties
    They are both right-wing and to write merely "right-wing" is in fact charitable. Economic policy is a non-entity in the NI political system except in so far as it involves taking money from themmuns for ussuns.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm switching my support from Tom Tugendhat to Grant Shapps.

    Grant Shapps seemingly alone among Conservative candidates in dismissing the trans women question.

    "Let people live their lives," he tells Sky.

    "I just don't think we need to get caught up in some US-style debate and aggressive war on these issues. It's just not necessary."


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1546045999327608834

    It's the best answer I've heard to the question.
    Indeed.

    I spoke to a pollster not so long ago and they said over the last year they must have polled 50,000 people and nobody has ever mentioned trans issues as the most important/top three issues facing the country.

    It's the new phone hacking.
    And it isn't the electoral kryptonite that the GBNews crowd think. Shapps and Mordaunt are pretty much in line with mainstream polling on this. Most people are fairly chilled about it as an issue. There are some complexities but basically most Britons think Trans people should be allowed to live as they choose, provided they are fairly polite about it.

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/research/britons-and-gender-identity/
    I would just caution a few things on this front. Not because I have a particular iron in the fire, but because the “culture war” issues go to matters like identity, and identity and belonging got us to Brexit.

    And before the EU referendum the maxim on here used to be that voters didn’t care about Europe. So I am somewhat cynical in this new age of politics that some of these issues don’t resonate, or at the very least are not tied into worldview, which seems to be becoming more and more how people base their vote over economics .
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291

    The long awaited sequel to the Cucumber Chronicles, the Tomato Tales, may already be overgrown.

    I don’t have a stepladder, so have had to balance on the end of a wooden wine box just to water my plants. I haven’t been pruning the tomatoes at all.

    This is a third of one of the plants. The number of flowers is ridiculous. I’m feeding them loads and keeping my fingers crossed.


    Oooh nice. When I grew cucumbers a few years ago they took over half the conservatory and produced one decent cucumber fruit.

    This year it’s the turn of the chilli peppers, where I’ve had 100% germination and survival. Which would be great if I’d not put 40 in…
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991
    ydoethur said:

    Candidates falling over themselves to cause a run on the £ frankly.

    And the collapse of the public sector. Don't be ill, on benefits or in a school this autumn.
    It must be really depressing trying to do a good job, when the DoE are undermining you for reasons known only to themselves. Keep going, for the sake of the kids, and to spite the DoE bastards.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    I doubt it would be the worst option available.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:

    Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.

    In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.

    Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.

    SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.

    Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.

    He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    This isn’t a serious intervention from Dan Hodges.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited July 2022


    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    💥 NEW: Senior Tories want to rapidly thin out the field of leadership candidates

    One senior MP close to 1922 committee it was “likely” candidates must secure the support of at least 10% of the parliamentary party to get on to the ballot paper - 36 MPs

    Lol

    I'm sure he will, but Rishi doesn't actually have 36 known named backlers at the moment.
    Big hurdle for the Saj tbh.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822


    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    💥 NEW: Senior Tories want to rapidly thin out the field of leadership candidates

    One senior MP close to 1922 committee it was “likely” candidates must secure the support of at least 10% of the parliamentary party to get on to the ballot paper - 36 MPs

    Thank god for that!
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,291

    ydoethur said:

    Candidates falling over themselves to cause a run on the £ frankly.

    And the collapse of the public sector. Don't be ill, on benefits or in a school this autumn.
    It must be really depressing trying to do a good job, when the DoE are undermining you for reasons known only to themselves. Keep going, for the sake of the kids, and to spite the DoE bastards.
    Also hope we don’t have a reactor accident, an outbreak of foot and mouth, a high-magnitude geomagnetic storm or a bad winter storm.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,689
    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Andy_JS said:

    test

    If you remember Test you're an OG PB'er! :D
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Bar to stand : 36
    --------------
    Sunak 33
    Mordaunt 20
    Tugendhat 15
    Zahawi 13
    Truss 13
    Hunt 12
    Badenoch 12
    Patel 11
    Braverman 10
    Javid 10
    Shapps 7
    Chishti 0

    Boris re-elected as noone passes threshold it is.
  • Options
    Labour is on the centre ground and the Tories know it. How sad they must be to not be facing Corbyn
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442

    Carnyx said:

    If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories

    Which is a particularly interesting point from a Scottish point of view. Not to mention NI.
    NI is disenfranchised anyway. No one living there can vote for a GB party. All they have to choose from is ex-terrorists and religious nutters who can never form a government in their own right.
    The SDLP, APNI and UUP are OK.
    SDLP has 2 MPs, Alliance has 1 MP and UUP have none. They are not exactly in a position to form a majority at Westminster. All of them need another few hundred MPs
    The people of NI have deliberately picked the extremists. Because the U.K. government and the Dublin government listened to the extremists concerns, and gave them concessions. The UUP and SDLP were told to sit at the back of the room and not make too much noise. Alliance was ignored completely.
    By and large there are only extremists to pick. The UUP and SDLP are less extreme. The Alliance are about the only bunch with a reasonable political heritage and outlook so it has been encouraging to see their vote share increasing.

    But no one in NI can vote Labour, Conservative or LibDem.
    Both the UUP and the SDLP were forthright in not condoning the use of violence - by their own sides. In NI politics that puts you in the “nice” column. Both Hume and Trimble earned their Nobel Peace Prizes - by a wide margin
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,442
    EPG said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    dixiedean said:

    The Alliance is of course affiliated to the LDs and it would be great to see them form part of a progressive coalition.

    In my view we need to “normalise” Northern Ireland and see some of their politicians in national roles.

    Most parties in NI are "Progressive" or "left-leaning". The exceptions are the UUP, DUP and TUV.
    The DUP and TUV are "left-leaning' as regards tax and spend.
    Wiki's got them both down as right-wing and conservative:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditional_Unionist_Voice
    Wikipedia struggle a bit with categorising social/economic complexities of parties
    They are both right-wing and to write merely "right-wing" is in fact charitable. Economic policy is a non-entity in the NI political system except in so far as it involves taking money from themmuns for ussuns.
    Economic policy consists of taking money from London for ussuns. Themmuns don’t have any to take!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    Labour is on the centre ground and the Tories know it. How sad they must be to not be facing Corbyn

    They had to beat Corbyn first in 2019 to ensure they aren't facing him again now
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    Gove could be her Willie Whitelaw.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    4m
    Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.

    Badenoch would be the face, Gove would actually be running the country
    No, I don't think she is anyone's puppet, and it is a bit derogatory to depict her as such.
    She is too young and too inexperienced, not yet even a Cabinet Minister or Cttee chair. My point stands
    She's almost the same age that Blair and Cameron were when they became prime minister, (and obviously older than they were when they became party leader).
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    Andy_JS said:

    Just waiting for Uncle Tom Cobley to announce.

    I lolled.
    And then showed this to my wife, who also lolled, and shared with her mother (I expect she lolled also, but no confirmation yet).
    Anyway, we then set to discussing the origin of the phrase, and which song it was from, and wikipediad it. The phrases Wikipedia page contains a glorious example of the brief, precise Wikipedia style: "a humorous or whimsical way of saying 'et al', often to express exasperation at the large number of people in a list."
    I love that the English language has a phrase specifically for the purpose of expressing exasperation at the large number of people in a list.
  • Options

    Labour is on the centre ground and the Tories know it. How sad they must be to not be facing Corbyn

    Corbyn's legacy was Johnson

    I hope Starmer's will be better
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,991

    Penny Mordaunt is favourite for the Scottish Tory vote

    Another Scottish Tory source said this regime had been “very divisive” and that Mordaunt would be a “unifying candidate”.

    An influential figure among grassroots Scottish Tories said they believed Mordaunt, who was the first female defence secretary, would be “very sellable in Scotland”.

    It is understood that Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is waiting to see the contenders before backing a candidate.

    Yesterday he predicted that the contest would provide a “very strong positive debate” about the future of the party and suggested there should be an overhaul of the UK government to remove Johnson loyalists.

    … Liz Truss, the foreign secretary… was met with scorn from several Conservative MSPs, who believe she would be “disastrous” for the Scottish party in a similar vein to Johnson, whose approval ratings dropped to a record low of -71 in Scotland last month.

    (The Times; €)

    Alister Jackass is waiting for someone to pledge to abolish Holyrood before he decides who is getting his vote.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Labour is on the centre ground and the Tories know it. How sad they must be to not be facing Corbyn

    They had to beat Corbyn first in 2019 to ensure they aren't facing him again now
    And ironically precipitated their downfall. Without him I am convinced they would be in opposition now
This discussion has been closed.