Off topic, but I've been to Trent Bridge today to watch England play India in the last game of the 2020 series. A few observations:
Big snip
- Sat next to an 18 year old lad from Birmingham; English, of Anglo-Pakistani heritage. Very chatty, enthusiastic about everything. Sadly the only one of his mates interested in cricket; happily not dissuaded by this and quite happy to get a coach from Birmingham on his own and see who he got chatting to. He had been interested in cricket by T20 but got hooked on the game from the hundred last year. I have therefore slightly revised my opinion of the hundred upwards a bit. He was waiting for his A level results and hopes to do medicine at Birmingham and I hope he is successful. The world needs more people like him.
The world needs more people who like cricket and want to be doctors? Really?
I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."
Why did Chishti not provide a direct link to the video, or even to his Facebook page? Anyway, he's got the strange hand gestures down pat but needs to claim a microphone windscreen on expenses. https://www.facebook.com/RehmanChishti/
and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.
That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye. Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.
It absolutely has. We have left the EU. The impact of Brexit may be shit, although benefits were always going to be intangible and long term, but we are no longer paying money into the EU coffers and no longer a part of the EU undemocratic p9litical structure. For better or worse (most think worse) we are in the post Brexit phase, and trying to sort out the best position we can outside the EU. The current lot won’t do the right thing and align as close as possible, but a new government should.
But none of that means Brexit has been delivered. The package is shit, but it’s come to your door.
That is a bit like claiming an aircraft has landed when it hits the ground at 200 mph killing all the passengers.
Boris Johnson - a (religious) faith that passeth all understanding? From his wiki bio:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England, but has said that his faith "comes and goes"and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In 2020, his son Wilfred was baptised Catholic, prompting suggestions that Johnson had returned to Catholicism.
Johnson and Symonds married in a Catholic ceremony at Westminster Cathedral on 29 May 2021. To be married in the Catholic Church, Johnson needed to have his two previous marriages proven to be invalid by reason of lack of canonical form. Since he was baptised Catholic, but his previous weddings were not conferred by the Catholic Church, they are considered putatively invalid.
SSI - No statement by BJ that he's RC. And no requirement to be RC to get married in WC, given that his previous marriages were just rolls in the hay with heretical hussies according to Vatican cross-dressers.
Of course he is Roman Catholic, once baptised Catholic you are effectively always Catholic to the Vatican.
He got married in a Roman Catholic Church not a Church of England Church and Anglican Raab now appoints C of E bishops as Johnson couldn't being loyal ultimately to the Pope not the Queen in religious terms in terms of the head of his church on earth
Just out of interest who does the appointing if we don't have a deputy pm (as we haven't for much the time)?
The Lord Chancellor which is also Raab
And what happens if Raab C. Brexit is, for example, a Jedi Knight or a Free Presbyterian (Continuing) who doesn't hold with Erastian nonsense like letting Caesar have his paws on what is God?
Then the non Church of England PM has to appoint a new Church of England Lord Chancellor to replace them
What if he doesn't because he thinks it is all a lot of nonsense?
Hi @hyufd You answered my subsidiary question on the last thread but not the main question.
Why were constitutional experts and senior Tories worried about Boris trashing the constitution (as reported today) if there wasn't any issue.
As most of them were likely anti Brexit and anti Boris
That is definitely it.
I assume you realise that reply was sarcasm @hyufd
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
Hi @hyufd You answered my subsidiary question on the last thread but not the main question.
Why were constitutional experts and senior Tories worried about Boris trashing the constitution (as reported today) if there wasn't any issue.
As most of them were likely anti Brexit and anti Boris
That is definitely it.
I assume you realise that reply was sarcasm @hyufd
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
Good morning
I have joined the anti Johnson group of conservatives with a passion, though I do not hate him nor indeed anyone, though I do dislike at great intensity at times !!!
I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."
Why did Chishti not provide a direct link to the video, or even to his Facebook page? Anyway, he's got the strange hand gestures down pat but needs to claim a microphone windscreen on expenses. https://www.facebook.com/RehmanChishti/
The sooner the 1922 raise the bar high enough to eliminate these no hopers the better
Hi @hyufd You answered my subsidiary question on the last thread but not the main question.
Why were constitutional experts and senior Tories worried about Boris trashing the constitution (as reported today) if there wasn't any issue.
As most of them were likely anti Brexit and anti Boris
That is definitely it.
I assume you realise that reply was sarcasm @hyufd
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
Good morning
I have joined the anti Johnson group of conservatives with a passion, though I do not hate him nor indeed anyone, though I do dislike at great intensity at times !!!
Morning Big G. I didn't include you in the list because according to HYUFD you aren't a real Tory.
Hi @hyufd You answered my subsidiary question on the last thread but not the main question.
Why were constitutional experts and senior Tories worried about Boris trashing the constitution (as reported today) if there wasn't any issue.
As most of them were likely anti Brexit and anti Boris
That is definitely it.
I assume you realise that reply was sarcasm @hyufd
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
Good morning
I have joined the anti Johnson group of conservatives with a passion, though I do not hate him nor indeed anyone, though I do dislike at great intensity at times !!!
Morning Big G. I didn't include you in the list because according to HYUFD you aren't a real Tory.
I doubt any of the others are in his mind but fair point notwithstanding I have re-joined the party
If I recall, Moors are mostly associated with Muslim Spain. Not up on the history of dancing but I think morris dancing goes back probably to the late medieval period.
If I recall, Moors are mostly associated with Muslim Spain. Not up on the history of dancing but I think morris dancing goes back probably to the late medieval period.
Yes, true - though ISTR that the term 'Moorish' was in the late medieval period applied in a rather slapdash fashion for anything from North Africa to the Himalayas. Possibly.
Good morning all! The two most of the shouting of the of the calls weekend is over and life is back to normal! And it's a lovely looking morning. I am really surprised by the insistence on taxcutting in the various Conservative leadership contenders manifesto's! Surely economic recovery should be the priority? And of course restoring honesty to Conservative politics! So far as I can see at the moment most of the candidates are Johnson redux!
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
I’m standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and your Prime Minister. For me it’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward. (Full video on my Facebook page)."
Why did Chishti not provide a direct link to the video, or even to his Facebook page? Anyway, he's got the strange hand gestures down pat but needs to claim a microphone windscreen on expenses. https://www.facebook.com/RehmanChishti/
The sooner the 1922 raise the bar high enough to eliminate these no hopers the better
Actually, it might be better for the 1922 to allow (almost) anyone who wants to stand and rely on the first round of the ballot to eliminate them. We are not in the 1970s when ballot papers had to be manually typeset and printed overnight or the next day; a couple of mouse-clicks and another name can be added or removed, and 360 papers can be printed in minutes. This would allow the Conservatives bragging rights over other parties about how democratic it is, and how many [insert characteristic here] candidates stood.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
That does not stop Cultural Marxism being an antisemitic conspiracy theory.
Mr. Royale, makes sense given a big part of the BLM idiocy was trying to divide people into oppressors and the oppressed (even though the actual oppression occurred centuries ago, and the only type of oppression ever spoken of by them was of one small slice of slavery that occurred throughout multiple times and cultures in human history. But, you know. It's easier to attack white people overtly if you have an ideology, even a stupid an irrational one).
I had a dream last night that Alex Baldwin managed to make Richard Gere have a fatal heart attack through them both acting out a heated argument they were having as part of shooting a new film.
I had a dream last night that Alex Baldwin managed to make Richard Gere have a fatal heart attack through them both acting out a heated argument they were having as part of shooting a new film.
Not sure what to make of it.
Reminds me of one of the (simultaneously) best, yet utterly meaningless songs ever written;
“ Had a dream last night about you, my friend Had a dream--I wanted to sleep next to plastic Had a dream--I wanted to lick your knees Had a dream--it was about nothing Take the skinheads bowling Take them bowling”
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
I am not denying the existence of "Marxism" which is political and economic philosophy.
"Cultural Marxism" is an alt-right term originating in America, which supposes an organised and deliberate coordinated attack on Western culture as a form of subversion.
Mr. Royale, makes sense given a big part of the BLM idiocy was trying to divide people into oppressors and the oppressed (even though the actual oppression occurred centuries ago, and the only type of oppression ever spoken of by them was of one small slice of slavery that occurred throughout multiple times and cultures in human history. But, you know. It's easier to attack white people overtly if you have an ideology, even a stupid an irrational one).
I am a bit unclear what you saying here. Are you referring to the transatlantic slave trade and slavery in the Americas as a “small slice of slavery”, and are you saying that there’s been no racism in the US since the end of slavery?
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
I am not denying the existence of "Marxism" which is political and economic philosophy.
"Cultural Marxism" is an alt-right term originating in America, which supposes an organised and deliberate coordinated attack on Western culture as a form of subversion.
But, there is certainly a fringe interested in that and because the centre-left (that's you) aren't putting up much resistance to this it's allowing the likes of Antifa and the Marxist wings of BLM to make all the running and their dogma to creep into mainstream thinking. There has also been evidence of state actors (e.g. China and Russia) funding some of these activities.
Professor Eric Kauffman and Douglas Murray have written about this - as has Tony Blair.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.
That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye. Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.
It absolutely has. We have left the EU. The impact of Brexit may be shit, although benefits were always going to be intangible and long term, but we are no longer paying money into the EU coffers and no longer a part of the EU undemocratic p9litical structure. For better or worse (most think worse) we are in the post Brexit phase, and trying to sort out the best position we can outside the EU. The current lot won’t do the right thing and align as close as possible, but a new government should.
But none of that means Brexit has been delivered. The package is shit, but it’s come to your door.
That is a bit like claiming an aircraft has landed when it hits the ground at 200 mph killing all the passengers.
I just don’t get this argument. What sense are you denying that Brexit has been delivered? We have left the EU. The outcome may be shit, there may be a load of people who wish it were not done, but we have left the EU.
It’s totally wierd that people keep saying things you have.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
That does not stop Cultural Marxism being an antisemitic conspiracy theory.
No, it means that 21st century marxists think it more profitable to pursue the ends of Marxism to overthrow the established capitalist order through framing cultural oppression across race, gender and sex than economic oppression through the working class - who are somewhat unreliable these days.
And you can find plenty of anti-Semitism in Antifa, BLM and Jeremy Corbyn's back yard.
Let's not pretend such inconvenient truths are far-right troupes when they are not.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Hi @hyufd You answered my subsidiary question on the last thread but not the main question.
Why were constitutional experts and senior Tories worried about Boris trashing the constitution (as reported today) if there wasn't any issue.
As most of them were likely anti Brexit and anti Boris
That is definitely it.
I assume you realise that reply was sarcasm @hyufd
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
Good morning
I have joined the anti Johnson group of conservatives with a passion, though I do not hate him nor indeed anyone, though I do dislike at great intensity at times !!!
Morning Big G. I didn't include you in the list because according to HYUFD you aren't a real Tory.
I doubt any of the others are in his mind but fair point notwithstanding I have re-joined the party
Well, HYFUD will still beleive that he is the only Tory in the village, since you are not a proper Conservative, because you did not love Big Boris... or something.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Cameron asked for quality people of all backgrounds to stand to be MPs. Other parties have used all-women shortlists and appealed to ‘community leaders’ - very different strategies.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
Mr. Royale, I had a tiny bet on her at 131 a few days ago.
I'm tempted to hold. Sunak seems very likely to make it to the top 2. I've got extra on Truss too and tiny extras on Mordaunt/Tugendhat. Sunak's still far and away my most green result.
Given that, I'm inclined to let things ride if it's Sunak + Badenoch/Truss, and maybe lay Sunak more if it's him and Tugendhat/Mordaunt.
and every single one wants a to fight the EU to impose a locally unpopular policy on a province they don't care about.
That's the real mystery. I wonder if they think their grassroots will deem it a surrender to the EU? Are Tory members interested in Ulster?
Wings over Scotland commissioned some polling years back which IIRC showed that Tories (I think voters) would rather have Brexit than NI. Which is some way to being fulfilled, given that NI is still in the EU and distinctly semi-detached ...
Aside from HYUFD, I don't think Tory voters (or anyone in England) cares strongly either way whether NI is in the UK. It is a foreign land of which we know little. Losing it isn't going to change the map of the country in any way we might notice. It costs us money and gives us no great advantage that we can see. And even the ones there who nominally want to remain attached seem constantly furious with us. We'll have them, while a majority want to stay with us, but I don't think there is any great emotional connection. Of course there is a greater commitment to Brexit than to NI. I suspect there is a greater commitment to a lot of issues than there is to NI. To pick an example out of thin air, I suspect if you told English people they would have to change the colour of their postboxes for the sake of the union with NI a solid majority would happily wave it goodbye. Scotland is different. For the English, we've mostly been to Scotland. There's an emotional connection even when there isn't a rational connection.
That is not true, 49% of Tory voters would be upset if NI left the UK just 8% pleased.
It absolutely has. We have left the EU. The impact of Brexit may be shit, although benefits were always going to be intangible and long term, but we are no longer paying money into the EU coffers and no longer a part of the EU undemocratic p9litical structure. For better or worse (most think worse) we are in the post Brexit phase, and trying to sort out the best position we can outside the EU. The current lot won’t do the right thing and align as close as possible, but a new government should.
But none of that means Brexit has been delivered. The package is shit, but it’s come to your door.
That is a bit like claiming an aircraft has landed when it hits the ground at 200 mph killing all the passengers.
I just don’t get this argument. What sense are you denying that Brexit has been delivered? We have left the EU. The outcome may be shit, there may be a load of people who wish it were not done, but we have left the EU.
It’s totally wierd that people keep saying things you have.
Before Brexit. Whole set of issues weren’t issues because the EU dealt with them so trade deals (for instance) were of little interest to us.
Post Brexit - trade deals and similar items are now news because we have to do all the work ourselves, which means that Brexit is never going to be finished because it’s an ongoing project forever more..
Morning all! So the contest is who gets to compete with Sunak on the members ballot - assuming there is one. After I met Sunak and saw his media team in action in summer 2020 I because something of a Sunak fan. That slick operation is paying off now, with not only the best pitch so far but most importantly rapid propulsion to the front of the field.
As the candidate with the most MPs backing him and the only one seemingly who has a prayer of beating Starmer, it would be better if the coming blue on blue hate fest didn't proceed past the MPs stage.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
Interesting thread from Rob ford on this very topic
There's an interesting tendency in replies to this from those identifying with the left to assert that these BME conservatives are all part of a privileged elite (with the implicit conclusion that they are not 'really' representative in attitudes or experience. Is this true? 1/? https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1546057839550103553
If Starmer starts to undo Brexit then I may vote Labour. If he maintains his current stance then he (and Labour) can go to hell along with the Tories
Which is a particularly interesting point from a Scottish point of view. Not to mention NI.
NI is disenfranchised anyway. No one living there can vote for a GB party. All they have to choose from is ex-terrorists and religious nutters who can never form a government in their own right.
The SDLP, APNI and UUP are OK.
Obviously late to the game but (to answer Beibheirli's point:
1. The Conservative and Unionist Party DO put up candidates in Northern Ireland. https://www.niconservatives.com/ 2. Neither Labour nor the LD do, I'm not sure why. I have some suspicion that Labour have said they never would. Having said that the SDLP take the Labour whip in Parliament. The Alliance I'm less sure about but I'm told their MP sits with the LDs. 3. UKIP HAVE run candidates in Northern Ireland, and I suspect the Greens have a local party too.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Penny Mordaunt is favourite for the Scottish Tory vote
Another Scottish Tory source said this regime had been “very divisive” and that Mordaunt would be a “unifying candidate”.
An influential figure among grassroots Scottish Tories said they believed Mordaunt, who was the first female defence secretary, would be “very sellable in Scotland”.
It is understood that Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is waiting to see the contenders before backing a candidate.
Yesterday he predicted that the contest would provide a “very strong positive debate” about the future of the party and suggested there should be an overhaul of the UK government to remove Johnson loyalists.
… Liz Truss, the foreign secretary… was met with scorn from several Conservative MSPs, who believe she would be “disastrous” for the Scottish party in a similar vein to Johnson, whose approval ratings dropped to a record low of -71 in Scotland last month.
(The Times; €)
Alister Jackass is waiting for someone to pledge to abolish Holyrood before he decides who is getting his vote.
He is one person pretty much guaranteed to lose his Cabinet job. Dreadful performance.
Mr. Royale, I had a tiny bet on her at 131 a few days ago.
I'm tempted to hold. Sunak seems very likely to make it to the top 2. I've got extra on Truss too and tiny extras on Mordaunt/Tugendhat. Sunak's still far and away my most green result.
Given that, I'm inclined to let things ride if it's Sunak + Badenoch/Truss, and maybe lay Sunak more if it's him and Tugendhat/Mordaunt.
I've laid down Hunt, The Saj and Zahawi.
Green on Sunak but he's actually one of my poorest performers because I was dismissive of his chances for far too long.
I look pretty good on Truss, Mordaunt, Tugendhat, Badenoch, Braverman, Shapps, Patel and Raab.
I had a dream last night that Alex Baldwin managed to make Richard Gere have a fatal heart attack through them both acting out a heated argument they were having as part of shooting a new film.
Not sure what to make of it.
Reminds me of one of the (simultaneously) best, yet utterly meaningless songs ever written;
“ Had a dream last night about you, my friend Had a dream--I wanted to sleep next to plastic Had a dream--I wanted to lick your knees Had a dream--it was about nothing Take the skinheads bowling Take them bowling”
It must be said that the first draft of MLK's famous speech left something to be desired.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
Interesting thread from Rob ford on this very topic
There's an interesting tendency in replies to this from those identifying with the left to assert that these BME conservatives are all part of a privileged elite (with the implicit conclusion that they are not 'really' representative in attitudes or experience. Is this true? 1/? https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1546057839550103553
That argument has been seen in the US quite a bit, accompanied by some rather distasteful language.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
The problem with Johnson was not particularly policy related. As far as he had any coherent policy it was to spend on anything and everything. The problem was in both the corruption involved in such spending, the pork barrelling and his own lack of personal integrity.
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Cameron asked for quality people of all backgrounds to stand to be MPs. Other parties have used all-women shortlists and appealed to ‘community leaders’ - very different strategies.
From a contemporary article:
“The party board's committee on candidates will meet to whittle down 500 would-be MPs on the party's list of approved candidates into an A-list of between 100 and 150 "priority" candidates. Local associations for 140 winnable seats will be required to choose from this list and Mr Cameron has insisted it will include equal numbers of men and women, and a "significant proportion" from ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.”
That’s definitely an inclusionary policy. That’s effectively a quota for the candidate list. And it worked!
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
You can call this Casino's theorem: as non-white populations increase in size they become ever less interested in minority issues, and normalise their acceptance and presence across all classes, and trend to approach the voting behaviour of the white population at large.
Therefore, over the coming decades, I'd expect to see the minority vote trend increasingly Conservative and there will come a time when we don't talk about minorities any more - just people.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
It would blow their mind.
But, I don't want this to become a theme of Kemi's candidacy. I like Kemi because she's very bright and energetic and puts forward herself and her arguments well.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
You can call this Casino's theorem: as non-white populations increase in size they become ever less interested in minority issues, and normalise their acceptance and presence across all classes, and trend to approach the voting behaviour of the white population at large.
Therefore, over the coming decades, I'd expect to see the minority vote trend increasingly Conservative and there will come a time when we don't talk about minorities any more - just people.
Which is why certain elements of the extreme left are so keen to talk about race and gender, to the exclusion of almost anything else.
Someone said something once about wishing to see their children treated according to the content of their character, rather than the colour of their skin. He’d have been proud of Kemi Badenoch.
I don't think we need to get caught up in some culture war either. But I don't feel like I'm on the side trying to have a culture war. I'm on the side which was fine with culture as it was.
The reason the other side cry "culture war!" whenever you object to what they're doing with their cultural Marxism is because they'd prefer not to have any pushback.
This is quite an interesting example. "Cultural Marxism" exists only as a conspiracy theory, and one tinged with anti-Semitism. It sits next to the Great Replacement Theory in the right wing pantheon.
Except the BLM co-founder described herself as a "trained Marxist".
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
That does not stop Cultural Marxism being an antisemitic conspiracy theory.
No, it means that 21st century marxists think it more profitable to pursue the ends of Marxism to overthrow the established capitalist order through framing cultural oppression across race, gender and sex than economic oppression through the working class - who are somewhat unreliable these days.
And you can find plenty of anti-Semitism in Antifa, BLM and Jeremy Corbyn's back yard.
Let's not pretend such inconvenient truths are far-right troupes when they are not.
They don't stop being anti semitic tropes just because you believe them.
Dr. Bondegezou, Saxon slavery lasted around five centuries. Not sure how long the Romans did it, I think for a millennium and then it was formally ended due to Christianisation. The Norse did it for centuries.
Most of the heavy lifting on racism has been done, with good laws that ban discrimination in terms of pay and so forth. I don't think treating people differently based on skin colour, as some seem to want (it's UK not US, but Sky's black pound nonsense was deranged) is anything other than a backwards step.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Cameron asked for quality people of all backgrounds to stand to be MPs. Other parties have used all-women shortlists and appealed to ‘community leaders’ - very different strategies.
From a contemporary article:
“The party board's committee on candidates will meet to whittle down 500 would-be MPs on the party's list of approved candidates into an A-list of between 100 and 150 "priority" candidates. Local associations for 140 winnable seats will be required to choose from this list and Mr Cameron has insisted it will include equal numbers of men and women, and a "significant proportion" from ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.”
That’s definitely an inclusionary policy. That’s effectively a quota for the candidate list. And it worked!
And I remember a lot of grumbling from some Tories about it at the time.
Who the hell is Rehman Chishti. What a fucking time-waster, he should have the whip removed.
Another Pakistani heritage chap who is intent on proving Enoch Powell was right by showing the darkies are going to have the whip hand in this country.
The Tories are so bloody woke with all these non-white candidates.
I'm trying to think about another European country that would have this many ethnic minority candidates to be lead a major political party/country.
Chisti has a huge black mark against him, former grammar school boy.
That isn't what Woke is.
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
It is rather amusing to note that the top four candidates at the moment include three women, two ethnic minorities - and no white men. All there on merit and capable of doing the job, no quotas or inclusionary policies required.
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
But they’re there as Conservative MPs because of Cameron’s inclusionary policies to increase the diversity of Tory candidates.
Also gives the lie to the Great Replacement Theory, as the basis of that is the idea that left wingers support mass immigration in order to guarantee electoral supremacy.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
You can call this Casino's theorem: as non-white populations increase in size they become ever less interested in minority issues, and normalise their acceptance and presence across all classes, and trend to approach the voting behaviour of the white population at large.
Therefore, over the coming decades, I'd expect to see the minority vote trend increasingly Conservative and there will come a time when we don't talk about minorities any more - just people.
Which is why certain elements of the extreme left are so keen to talk about race and gender, to the exclusion of almost anything else.
Someone said something once about wishing to see their children treated according to the content of their character, rather than the colour of their skin. He’d have been proud of Kemi Badenoch.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
The problem with Johnson was not particularly policy related. As far as he had any coherent policy it was to spend on anything and everything. The problem was in both the corruption involved in such spending, the pork barrelling and his own lack of personal integrity.
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
But isn't Johnson's corruption of public life continuing in sense that the contenders are now promising the moon on a stick and they know they cant and wont deliver it?
Its absurd. We're already up to 11 declarations with more to follow probably. Some of them have less chance than I have. Braverman is a mentalist. Badenoch an unknown. The "I've been a minister for 2 days" man/woman - I literally have no clue who they are - a joke.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
Dr. Bondegezou, Saxon slavery lasted around five centuries. Not sure how long the Romans did it, I think for a millennium and then it was formally ended due to Christianisation. The Norse did it for centuries.
Most of the heavy lifting on racism has been done, with good laws that ban discrimination in terms of pay and so forth. I don't think treating people differently based on skin colour, as some seem to want (it's UK not US, but Sky's black pound nonsense was deranged) is anything other than a backwards step.
Do you know what I think is a backwards step? Describing the transatlantic slave trade as a “small slice” and thinking that going on about Norse slavery is the right response to the shooting of unarmed Black people in the US by their police forces.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
Then there was UCUNF in 2010 which prompted the UUP's only MP to quit the party, and her voters agreed and chose her over UCUNF. The Conservatives now stand absentee paper candidates and hacked-off UUP exiters, and get two or three per cent of the CoI professional vote.
I read an alternative timeline (and maybe it had a basis in reality) where someone suggested the 2010 run should be 'Ulster Conservative and Unionist New Force'.... rather than the initially suggested Ulster Conservative and Unionist New Team. Can't think why.
Mr. Gezou, the Romans and Greeks had slaves. As did the Norse and Anglo-Saxons, the Arabs and the Chinese. Barbary pirates seized whites and sold them as slaves to the Ottomans.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
Slavery in North America lasted from 1526 to 1865, so 339 years. The transatlantic slave trade as a whole shipped over 12 million Africans to the Americas. To call that a “small slice” seems odd. It is, for obvious reasons, of rather more import to the modern US than the practices of slavery in ancient Athens or among the Anglo-Saxons. The last US slave died in my lifetime: it’s a lot more recent than slavery among the Norse.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Blacks are killed by the police greater than their share of the population, but at about their share of convicted violent criminals, so it is far from certain that the high rate is unjustified overall, whatever may be the case in individual shootings.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
Morning all! So the contest is who gets to compete with Sunak on the members ballot - assuming there is one. After I met Sunak and saw his media team in action in summer 2020 I because something of a Sunak fan. That slick operation is paying off now, with not only the best pitch so far but most importantly rapid propulsion to the front of the field.
As the candidate with the most MPs backing him and the only one seemingly who has a prayer of beating Starmer, it would be better if the coming blue on blue hate fest didn't proceed past the MPs stage.
But it surely will with 11 candidates and unless the membership surprise us for once they will go for the more rabid opponent of Sunak, who will of course get to say 'i told you so' when it all goes tits up in a year.
Although I am reasonable green on Sunak having got on back in the days when he was 25/1 and a leadership election was just a twinkle in Cummings' eye, I fear Tories have gone, at least a little, GOP.
The sensible candidate will in the end have no chance with the wider party because they just want to be told fairytales and populist nostrums rather than taking the world seriously.
Dr. Bondegezou, this is the first time you've decided to mention the specific instance of the shooting.
I did not mention Norse slavery in response to the shooting. I mentioned it in response to the trans-Atlantic slave trade to put it into some historical context.
If and when the police screw up they should be held to account. It's no more complicated than that. Raising one part of historic slavery and then complaining when others refer to that and put it in some context is unreasonable.
I'm more than happy to concede that the US police are too trigger happy and seem to want to dominate a situation rather than, if possible, defuse it.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
The problem with Johnson was not particularly policy related. As far as he had any coherent policy it was to spend on anything and everything. The problem was in both the corruption involved in such spending, the pork barrelling and his own lack of personal integrity.
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
But isn't Johnson's corruption of public life continuing in sense that the contenders are now promising the moon on a stick and they know they cant and wont deliver it?
One of the challenges for the next PM.
There's still a massive lie at the heart of Conservative policy- that we can have our cake and eat it.
But Johnson's successor won't be as accomplished a liar as he is. Surely?
As I posted early, they aren't even pretending to be serious and straight with people - just a pack of lies and magic money tree fantasy. Unicorns on sticks.
How on earth did the Conservative party fall to this baleful state? It can't all be Johnson surely?
As I posted early, they aren't even pretending to be serious and straight with people - just a pack of lies and magic money tree fantasy. Unicorns on sticks.
How on earth did the Conservative party fall to this baleful state? It can't all be Johnson surely?
Its a natural consequence of the fantasy unicorn that was Brexit.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
The problem with Johnson was not particularly policy related. As far as he had any coherent policy it was to spend on anything and everything. The problem was in both the corruption involved in such spending, the pork barrelling and his own lack of personal integrity.
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
But isn't Johnson's corruption of public life continuing in sense that the contenders are now promising the moon on a stick and they know they cant and wont deliver it?
One of the PB Tories on here last night was pushing the idea that the candidates should actively lie to get the job. It is not just the MPs that are in moral / political fairy land
Truss and Hunt are too erratic, Badenoch and Braverman too far down the Culture War rabbit hole, the rest not going to make the cut.
Priti Patel expected to enter the Tory leadership race today and pitch herself as the only "authentic" Brexiteer who can reach the final two and win the contest:
Mr. Borough, Osborne had some concern for the deficit.
May and Hammond threw away the economic advantage the Conservatives had. Boris Johnson wanted to splurge billions to buy himself nice headlines (and that was before COVID-19 came along).
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 4m Kemi Badenoch is talented. But we’re taking about Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dealing with the Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, major industrial unrest and and a crisis in Northern Ireland. This isn’t a serious intervention from Michael Gove. It’s student politics.
Yes and no. After having had the liar clown dealing with the same agenda, it is hard to imagine anyone coping worse.
The problem with Johnson was not particularly policy related. As far as he had any coherent policy it was to spend on anything and everything. The problem was in both the corruption involved in such spending, the pork barrelling and his own lack of personal integrity.
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
But isn't Johnson's corruption of public life continuing in sense that the contenders are now promising the moon on a stick and they know they cant and wont deliver it?
One of the challenges for the next PM.
There's still a massive lie at the heart of Conservative policy- that we can have our cake and eat it.
But Johnson's successor won't be as accomplished a liar as he is. Surely?
Not according to Rory:-
Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life.
He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial. He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Really? 35 then 34 on BBC weather
There has been chatter on here of 40+, which is now receding as I predicted it would. 35 and 34 are bloody hot, but not out of the ordinary for summer in the South east of England.
A forecast of 35 is itself a mid point of the model that doesn't preclude a 37 or 38 in one spot (perhaps we know not yet whether over East Anglia, Kent or Heathrow), and doesn't preclude a higher forecast (or lower) in 3-4 days as confidence intervals narrow.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
In weather modelling/forecasting there is a phrase FI- fantasy island, which is useful for reminding that anything post 7 days is illusory and ensemble data, and definitely individual model runs should be guidance only. We see it in winter with epic cold spells that never turn up and in summer with epic heat waves that turn out bloody hot, just not over 40 degrees. I have merely tried to temper what some have posted with a slice of experience. It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
You also have to remember that the Conservative Party is the premier wealthy geriatric pressure group. They don’t care about funding policies because they won’t be around to pay for it and they’re privileged enough to spend all day frothing about the definition of a woman.
Weird, the extreme heat predictions for next Sunday and Monday appear to be moderating as we get closer in time.
Because their best guesswork advanced computer modelling is not very accurate more than a day or two ahead.
Yes, that’s been my point al along!
I don't think it's correct to characterise the forecast as moderating. That's to misunderstand how it's different.
The difference with the latest forecast is a positional one - the plume of very hot air is as displaced further eastwards, rather than northwards, by developments in the Atlantic. That means the forecast is cooler over the UK, but the plume of very hot air is still out there (over France).
It only takes a relatively small positional error to put that plume of hot air over London. This sort of situation means the forecast uncertainty is much higher than normal.
Dr. Bondegezou, this is the first time you've decided to mention the specific instance of the shooting.
I did not mention Norse slavery in response to the shooting. I mentioned it in response to the trans-Atlantic slave trade to put it into some historical context.
If and when the police screw up they should be held to account. It's no more complicated than that. Raising one part of historic slavery and then complaining when others refer to that and put it in some context is unreasonable.
I'm more than happy to concede that the US police are too trigger happy and seem to want to dominate a situation rather than, if possible, defuse it.
The red wall would be crazy to vote anyone but Sunak. Even if his spend is unsustainable, every other candidate is promising to revert to pre-Johnson spending instincts that would split vulnerable coalitions in deprived and improving areas.
Yes, Sunak should make the Members vote on the back of Red Wall MPs. The problem then comes that most Tory members are in the Blue shires, where levelling up the North looks like levelling down for them. This seems to have been a factor in Tiverton.
Comments
https://www.facebook.com/RehmanChishti/
2.86 Rishi Sunak
4.7 Penny Mordaunt
6.4 Liz Truss
13 Kemi Badenoch
13 Tom Tugendhat
23 Jeremy Hunt
30 Sajid Javid
36 Nadhim Zahawi
36 Priti Patel
40 Dominic Raab
40 Suella Braverman
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1545810170504269826/photo/1
Assuming you are right why do you think Tories like Marquee Mark, Sean Fear and Casino Royale hate Boris
with a passion? They are traditional Tories and pro Brexit. Does that not make you think there is more to it?
The 424-word salvo, included below, accuses former chancellor of ‘arrogance, indolence, ignorance’ and is an attempt to avoid a coronation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/10/exclusive-anti-rishi-mucky-memo-setting-alight-tory-whatsapp/ (£££)
I have joined the anti Johnson group of conservatives with a passion, though I do not hate him nor indeed anyone, though I do dislike at great intensity at times !!!
I really hope not as that debate is over and it is idiotic to reopen it
If I recall, Moors are mostly associated with Muslim Spain. Not up on the history of dancing but I think morris dancing goes back probably to the late medieval period.
And of course restoring honesty to Conservative politics! So far as I can see at the moment most of the candidates are Johnson redux!
Woke would be to talk incessantly about the racial and sexual background of each of the candidates like that's all that mattered, make it the main selling point and link it to broader intersectionality in society.
There are only two reasons to consistently reject the evidence that's routinely provided on here (and elsewhere) of the malignant Woke agenda: the first is wilful ignorance, by choice, and the second is stupidity.
I have my suspicions as to which one you are.
Not sure what to make of it.
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-to-host-first-tory-leadership-debate-12649648
Next Monday, no time given. It will be streamed on Youtube for non-Sky subscribers. Whether this comes before or after the first votes, we shall find out when the 1922 decides the schedule. ETA it is likely that two rounds of voting will have taken place before any hustings.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/11/1922-committee-rules-how-tories-will-elect-new-prime-minister/ (£££)
Host: Kay Burley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INnFvMgET1E
“ Had a dream last night about you, my friend
Had a dream--I wanted to sleep next to plastic
Had a dream--I wanted to lick your knees
Had a dream--it was about nothing
Take the skinheads bowling
Take them bowling”
"Cultural Marxism" is an alt-right term originating in America, which supposes an organised and deliberate coordinated attack on Western culture as a form of subversion.
Professor Eric Kauffman and Douglas Murray have written about this - as has Tony Blair.
Are they all alt-right extremists?
How the BLM types would deal with Kemi Badenoch as PM (or senior minister), might be fun to watch.
The major difference is that only the trans-Atlantic trade is on BLM's radar because it's the only one that comes close to fitting their nonsense, and that's disregarding the slaves were sold by black traders in Africa, and the trade was ended by the British Empire (which does not wipe out what went before but is worthy of acknowledgement).
As for racism in America, that's certainly, sadly, still in existence. Fighting it with BLM and related nonsense is as foolish as trying to fight inequality with Communism.
It’s totally wierd that people keep saying things you have.
And you can find plenty of anti-Semitism in Antifa, BLM and Jeremy Corbyn's back yard.
Let's not pretend such inconvenient truths are far-right troupes when they are not.
The reality is that immigrant populations adopt the politics of their new country fairly quickly, indeed often in the first generation.
I'm tempted to hold. Sunak seems very likely to make it to the top 2. I've got extra on Truss too and tiny extras on Mordaunt/Tugendhat. Sunak's still far and away my most green result.
Given that, I'm inclined to let things ride if it's Sunak + Badenoch/Truss, and maybe lay Sunak more if it's him and Tugendhat/Mordaunt.
Post Brexit - trade deals and similar items are now news because we have to do all the work ourselves, which means that Brexit is never going to be finished because it’s an ongoing project forever more..
As the candidate with the most MPs backing him and the only one seemingly who has a prayer of beating Starmer, it would be better if the coming blue on blue hate fest didn't proceed past the MPs stage.
There's an interesting tendency in replies to this from those identifying with the left to assert that these BME conservatives are all part of a privileged elite (with the implicit conclusion that they are not 'really' representative in attitudes or experience. Is this true? 1/? https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1546057839550103553
1. The Conservative and Unionist Party DO put up candidates in Northern Ireland. https://www.niconservatives.com/
2. Neither Labour nor the LD do, I'm not sure why. I have some suspicion that Labour have said they never would. Having said that the SDLP take the Labour whip in Parliament. The Alliance I'm less sure about but I'm told their MP sits with the LDs.
3. UKIP HAVE run candidates in Northern Ireland, and I suspect the Greens have a local party too.
Nevertheless, your point is a reasonable one.
I’m glad you acknowledge that racism is alive and well in the US. How do you think it should be fought? What is problematic about highlighting the high rate of police killings of Black people in the US?
(“bondegezou” is all one word, and it’s Dr or Prof not Mr.)
Green on Sunak but he's actually one of my poorest performers because I was dismissive of his chances for far too long.
I look pretty good on Truss, Mordaunt, Tugendhat, Badenoch, Braverman, Shapps, Patel and Raab.
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder was described by BLM as being “The Black Face of White Supremacy” https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-20/recall-candidate-larry-elder-is-a-threat-to-black-californians
From what we see from the leading contenders there is enthusiasm for unfunded tax cuts, and increased defence spending without any clarity on what spending will be cut.
The successor to Johnson is unlikely to have their pants on fire so often, but may not cope much better with their collision with reality.
“The party board's committee on candidates will meet to whittle down 500 would-be MPs on the party's list of approved candidates into an A-list of between 100 and 150 "priority" candidates. Local associations for 140 winnable seats will be required to choose from this list and Mr Cameron has insisted it will include equal numbers of men and women, and a "significant proportion" from ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.”
That’s definitely an inclusionary policy. That’s effectively a quota for the candidate list. And it worked!
Therefore, over the coming decades, I'd expect to see the minority vote trend increasingly Conservative and there will come a time when we don't talk about minorities any more - just people.
But, I don't want this to become a theme of Kemi's candidacy. I like Kemi because she's very bright and energetic and puts forward herself and her arguments well.
Someone said something once about wishing to see their children treated according to the content of their character, rather than the colour of their skin. He’d have been proud of Kemi Badenoch.
Most of the heavy lifting on racism has been done, with good laws that ban discrimination in terms of pay and so forth. I don't think treating people differently based on skin colour, as some seem to want (it's UK not US, but Sky's black pound nonsense was deranged) is anything other than a backwards step.
hacked one IBM
That is a disgrace.
The Hunt ticket declared too late and sunk itself by hitching on Ester McVey - another mentalist. Zahawi is under investigation by HMRC. Tugenhat is too low profile. Never mind 25 as a threshold, the outgoing 22 should have doubled it.
Unarmed blacks are rather more likely than whites to be shot, but Asians and Pacific Islanders significantly less so. Does that mean that the police are discriminating in favour of those minorities?
Men are killed by the police about 25x more often than women, but as far as I know we've never had a Male Lives Matter movement. As they are much more likely than women to be violent criminals, people accept that disparity.
Another strange fact is that blacks are more likely to be killed in urban areas, while whites are in rural areas.
When I first started looking at the statistics, I was prepared to find horrible evidence of discrimination overall, but somewhat to my surprise the picture is as murky and ambigious as these matters often are. Most of the problem is a hugely over-armed police force and population, rather than racism, which no doubt exists.
Agree or not, that’s quite a thing for a CONSERVATIVE cabinet minister to say.
Imagine if a Labour frontbencher said that
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1546387725250699264
It is such a depressing line up
I don't want any of them
The sensible candidate will in the end have no chance with the wider party because they just want to be told fairytales and populist nostrums rather than taking the world seriously.
The lib left just get on shagging who they want.
I did not mention Norse slavery in response to the shooting. I mentioned it in response to the trans-Atlantic slave trade to put it into some historical context.
If and when the police screw up they should be held to account. It's no more complicated than that. Raising one part of historic slavery and then complaining when others refer to that and put it in some context is unreasonable.
I'm more than happy to concede that the US police are too trigger happy and seem to want to dominate a situation rather than, if possible, defuse it.
I'd be highly surprised if the Met Office have ever predicted a 38C, in a given spot, a week in advance.
There's still a massive lie at the heart of Conservative policy- that we can have our cake and eat it.
But Johnson's successor won't be as accomplished a liar as he is. Surely?
How on earth did the Conservative party fall to this baleful state? It can't all be Johnson surely?
It'd be more Borisite spending, superficially grabbing headlines and to hell with long term thinking.
Truss and Hunt are too erratic, Badenoch and Braverman too far down the Culture War rabbit hole, the rest not going to make the cut.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/patel-set-to-run-as-only-authentic-brexiteer-who-can-win-mk0vg5pd8
May and Hammond threw away the economic advantage the Conservatives had. Boris Johnson wanted to splurge billions to buy himself nice headlines (and that was before COVID-19 came along).
Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life.
He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial. He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
It’s going to be very hot in places, and the distinction between 38 and 40 is marginal, other than for the record books.
The difference with the latest forecast is a positional one - the plume of very hot air is as displaced further eastwards, rather than northwards, by developments in the Atlantic. That means the forecast is cooler over the UK, but the plume of very hot air is still out there (over France).
It only takes a relatively small positional error to put that plume of hot air over London. This sort of situation means the forecast uncertainty is much higher than normal.