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As big dog Gromit quits Wallace is who Tory members want to replace him – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited July 7
    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities. Thr Athletic have done loads of indepth investigations on this and yet the focus in MSM is always on bob from bristol spaffed £20k on UK bookies with Corbynista bloke popping up blabbering on about how evil gambling is....you can't bet on most of the sites being promoted by EPL clubs, they don't want Bobs money.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    We also assume the Red Wall is coming back - people believed for a long time only Johnson could do that. And now he's gone.

    We will see.

    I think things are now very uncertain, as a Labour person Morduant is who I most fear.

    I am sort of hoping for Mordaunt, sorry old chap! The one thing you may be able to rely on is that the Tory selectorate is full of swiveleyed nutjobs, so they are most likely to pick some loon
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    ✨NEW FLOWCHART ✨

    Tory MPs could block Boris Johnson from staying on as a caretaker Prime Minister if they wanted to. But they risk triggering a general election.

    I've made a flowchart of how it could play out: https://twitter.com/lee_georgina/status/1545072512345808896/photo/1
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495
    Anyway, gotta finally do some work.

    I predict it will be Mordaunt, which may work out great for the Tories, but it also may not.

    The job has a ruthless efficiency in exposing your flaws.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    edited July 7

    Roger said:

    I missed the resignation speech. The Huffington Post described it as 'graceless' which isn't surprising because one of the most notable things about him is that he IS graceless. Charmless and graceless. I don't think he'll be missed at all.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-resignation-speech-theresa-may-cameron-blair-brown_uk_62c6bb65e4b0359fa477d629

    Weirdly Beth Rigby went all soft and called it 'classic Johnson' and 'dignified'
    Then Adam Boulton came on and pissed all over their chips
    I saw that, it was very funny. 😆 no love lost between bunter and Boris, or was it bunter and anything Beth says?

    I thought it was okay address from Boris. Horrible for him to have to deliver so soon, but he managed it without too much praising up his achievements and thus being rather dignified about it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,115
    kjh said:

    OT burning logs at home. Someone was asking about this recently. The government has just updated its guidance on what can be sold:-
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/selling-manufactured-solid-fuels-for-domestic-use-in-england

    I am glad I have my own wood supply.
    Ditto. I was chopping and stacking today.
    The new rules some time ago prevented coal being sold in sealed bags. So the coal merchants just do exactly the same thing but cut open the tops of the bags. Or forget to do so.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,826
    Is Hunt throwing his hat in the ring?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Tory leadership latest:

    Source: "Penny Mordaunt has her team in place and was meeting MPs yesterday. Tom Tugendhat also meeting people."

    Steve Baker thinking about it, Braverman says she'll run, Javid and Truss sure to stand.

    Already getting pretty crowded ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Tory leadership latest:

    Source: "Penny Mordaunt has her team in place and was meeting MPs yesterday. Tom Tugendhat also meeting people."

    Steve Baker thinking about it, Braverman says she'll run, Javid and Truss sure to stand.

    Already getting pretty crowded ...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,236

    The question is, who should be next Chancellor?

    The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.

    This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
    Zahawi seems to have some doubts expressed over his suitability. There do seem to be some quite surprising gaps in his wikipedia entry.

    Sunak didn't impress me at all though.

    Labour on the other hand have Reeves. She's quite good, although fatally handicapped by Labour thought(!).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Roger said:

    I missed the resignation speech. The Huffington Post described it as 'graceless' which isn't surprising because one of the most notable things about him is that he IS graceless. Charmless and graceless. I don't think he'll be missed at all.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-resignation-speech-theresa-may-cameron-blair-brown_uk_62c6bb65e4b0359fa477d629

    Weirdly Beth Rigby went all soft and called it 'classic Johnson' and 'dignified'
    Then Adam Boulton came on and pissed all over their chips
    I saw that, it was very funny. 😆 no love lost between bunter and Boris, or was it bunter and anything Beth says?

    I thought it was okay address from Boris. Horrible for him to have to deliver so soon, but he managed it without too much praising up his achievements and this being rather dignified about it.
    The "herd" thing was characteristically twattish
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    Wiki:

    Declared: Braverman, Tugendhat
    Publicly expresed interest: Baker, Berry, Buckland, Javid, Shapps
    Potential: Barclay, Ellwood, Harper, Hunt, McVey, Mourdant, Patel, Sunak, Truss, Wallace, Zahawi
    Declined: Gove, Hancock, Raab

    Thanks for that @applicant.

    Don't know who Berry is. Please not Patel and McVey. Shapps is interesting. He has been quite effective, but his past must surely prevent him.
    McVey would be very nice for me financially so yes please.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896
    Video of Andrea Jenkyns shouting at the crowd outside Downing Street.

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1545026053642473472
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    The question is, who should be next Chancellor?

    The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.

    This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
    No not really. What he has been is quietly efficient and effective. Which is exactly what I would want in a Minister.
    I don't like him, but I admire his professionalism.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495

    Curtailing the parliamentary process before going to the members - who are a bunch of lobotomised, elderly racists - could end up being sub-optimal for the Conservative Party.

    Screw the Conservative Party. I am more concerned if it would be sub-optimal for the Country. I am in agreement with those on here who have said this should be a matter for the Parliamentary Party alone. The PM is supposed to represent the majority of the MPs in Parliament, not the party membership either at their constituency tea parties or on ConHome.

    Scrap the membership vote and let the MPs decide who is their leader.
    Oh I totally agree.
    Membership influence over party leadership is a regrettable modern barbarism, and bad for the country.

    I am just noting that the Cons seem to be moving in the opposite direction…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095
    Berlin has become notably more hard line on the UK's legal obligations. This partly stems from the gulf in background between Olaf Scholz and Boris Johnson. I'm told Germany will go to the bitter end if it comes to trade retaliation measures if the bill becomes law

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1545070720912351232
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,487
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: An officer on the 1922 executive tells me they want the field of candidates whittled down to two by July 21 (when Parliament goes on recess), and new leader decided by September https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2022-07-05/uk-government-resignations?srnd=premium-uk&sref=yMmXm5Iy

    I’m not convinced it will go to the members. New leader by 22 July. Pressure to coalesce behind leader of MPs vote will be significant.
    That's asking for trouble. IF one of the last two is a radical like Baker, and he loses, it smacks of a stitch-up.
    It’s asking for trouble if the Party is frozen in introspection all summer whilst the Ukraine conflict raises on and cost of living gets worse…

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited July 7
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    The key thing about EPL is they haven't been just taking Bet365 or Ladbrokes money, they have been taking gangsters money, and they also now promoting dodgy as hell crypto stuff.

    Everybody knows it, yet the clubs just turn a blind eye to the fact these companies often don't even have a functioning website accessible in the west and the ownership is all hidden by dodgy front companies.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,826
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    Snooker and darts probably learned the lesson better than most sports from having to get off the tobacco money.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory leadership latest:

    Source: "Penny Mordaunt has her team in place and was meeting MPs yesterday. Tom Tugendhat also meeting people."

    Steve Baker thinking about it, Braverman says she'll run, Javid and Truss sure to stand.

    Already getting pretty crowded ...

    Is Rishi Sunak definitely standing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,523

    We also assume the Red Wall is coming back - people believed for a long time only Johnson could do that. And now he's gone.

    We will see.

    I think things are now very uncertain, as a Labour person Morduant is who I most fear.

    I am sort of hoping for Mordaunt, sorry old chap! The one thing you may be able to rely on is that the Tory selectorate is full of swiveleyed nutjobs, so they are most likely to pick some loon
    Only if given a chance to pick a loon from two candidates.

    MPs have to be loon-filters.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,706
    MISTY said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New: An officer on the 1922 executive tells me they want the field of candidates whittled down to two by July 21 (when Parliament goes on recess), and new leader decided by September https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2022-07-05/uk-government-resignations?srnd=premium-uk&sref=yMmXm5Iy

    I’m not convinced it will go to the members. New leader by 22 July. Pressure to coalesce behind leader of MPs vote will be significant.
    That's asking for trouble. IF one of the last two is a radical like Baker, and he loses, it smacks of a stitch-up.
    The point would be for the candidate in second to agree to the stitch-up, and therefore for it to represent a genuine rapprochement between the two candidates, and a basis for party unity - with the benefit of waving goodbye to Johnson much earlier.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504
    Five months ago I said on here I'll join the SNP if Patel becomes PM.

    I'd like to up the stakes and say that I'll donate a 4-figure sum to them too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    How is Boris Johnson's resignation going down in Brussels and EU capitals?

    Best described as short-lived smirking followed by sober pessimism: there will be no realistic chance of an EU-UK reset while the NI Protocol Bill continues to make its way through the Commons and Lords

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1545070703149518848
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Curtailing the parliamentary process before going to the members - who are a bunch of lobotomised, elderly racists - could end up being sub-optimal for the Conservative Party.

    Screw the Conservative Party. I am more concerned if it would be sub-optimal for the Country. I am in agreement with those on here who have said this should be a matter for the Parliamentary Party alone. The PM is supposed to represent the majority of the MPs in Parliament, not the party membership either at their constituency tea parties or on ConHome.

    Scrap the membership vote and let the MPs decide who is their leader.
    It would seem that the B word aside we agree on much Mr, T. The idea that a bunch of loons should have the last word on who our PM is absurd. The MPs genuinely represent voters, so their opinion should be final. The members should have a vote on Party Chairman perhaps, but not leader.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,011

    The question is, who should be next Chancellor?

    The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.

    This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
    No not really. What he has been is quietly efficient and effective. Which is exactly what I would want in a Minister.
    I don't like him, but I admire his professionalism.
    I have something of a soft spot for him. He reminds me of Keith Joseph. He knows he is not popular and he knows he probably doesn't have what it takes for the top job - even if his ex wife used to think otherwise. But he also has a cracking brain on him and exactly the sort of attention to detail that Johnson lacks. I also get the impression he genuinely wants to get on with people across the political spectrum. A policy man rather than a leader and we could do with more of them in Parliament and in Government.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,590

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    Snooker and darts probably learned the lesson better than most sports from having to get off the tobacco money.
    Snooker's problem in future if the international situation goes pear-shaped is it gets a lot of money from China, where the sport is big.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Priti Patel still not decided if she will run for leader or not.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095
    She isn’t - unless she’s flown commercial she’s still on the ground in Bali:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/g-gbni

    Liz Truss may be rushing back from Indonesia but she's still missing the early golden hours to recruit backers.

    One ex cab minster: "It's a classic British politics mistake to be out of the country at a pivotal moment - as Margaret Thatcher as Jim Callaghan found out..."


    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1545074180051406852
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,707
    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory leadership latest:

    Source: "Penny Mordaunt has her team in place and was meeting MPs yesterday. Tom Tugendhat also meeting people."

    Steve Baker thinking about it, Braverman says she'll run, Javid and Truss sure to stand.

    Already getting pretty crowded ...

    Is Rishi Sunak definitely standing?
    He'd be invisible if sitting down.
    "Oh please don't get up. oh so sorry...."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    edited July 7
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Views on contenders:

    Sunak - no
    Javid: hmmm
    Mordaunt: no - said daft things about Brexit, organised that ludicrous Leadsom March and got utterly pawned by Mumsnet the other day
    Truss: absolutely not
    Tugendhat: maybe depending on his team
    Braverman: please God no
    Wallace: possibly

    Curious why you say absolutely not about Truss?

    I believe you've been very positive about her in the past on her role for Equalities and Women's issues which I know is an issue close to your heart?

    So I'm wondering what she's said or done to make her absolutely not, despite that?
    She can stay as Equalities Minister or Kemi can do it.

    But I don't think she has what it takes to be PM.

    She may well get it, mind.
    Do you mind if I ask why?

    She's been in the Cabinet about a decade under three very different Prime Ministers. I can't really think of any scandals anywhere she's been, other than she once spoke about cheese and pork markets weirdly nearly a decade ago.

    Seems like a sensible, moderate choice to me.
    OK - recently she has been too obviously playing at being the next Maggie. I like ambition but in her it has felt inauthentic in the sense of wanting the job in order to be PM rather than in order to achieve something.

    Why does she want the job? What does she want to do with it? When she speaks about this it feels to me like empty-headed slogans, a series of cliches, rather than anything thought through and felt.

    I liked how she went about the Equalities brief because I felt she had though through the issues and tried to come up with a sensible practical compromise. And she also did it quietly without seeking to weaponise it.

    I don't know what she stands for. I worry that she is going to appeal to the worst aspects of the Tory membership if it will get her the job regardless of whether it works or is in the best interests of the country ie that we get Boris in a dress.

    I may be wrong on that. She is cunning and a survivor. But she has seemed out of her depth as Foreign Secretary and too inclined to play to the gallery.

    Really, what I want is a leader who is going to be honest about the problems we face and how we are going to have to deal with them. I do not see many politicians willing to do that. And I see too many who are more interested in being PM than in using that power for a purpose. And far too many whose thinking amounts to a stream of off the shelf cliches and slogans which a moderately intelligent 15-year old could easily pull apart.
    Thanks for the thought out reply.


    Interesting that you think she was out of her depth as Foreign Secretary. She seemed to be much calmer and more responsible about it than Raab, or many of her predecessors in recent years, and in quite challenging circumstances too.

    On the two issues we've had, NI and Ukraine, she seems to have handled both adroitly in ways that have been generally respected. Almost everyone seems united that Ukraine has been handled as well as it could be and like you said about her equalities brief, she seemed to think through the NI issues and came up with a proposed solution that was quite reasonable and in general addressed concerns sensibly. Even staunch critics like Gardenwalker and others here said that her proposals there were good, even if the way of going about it was disliked. I expect that if she were to win the leadership a compromise would be reached along the lines of what she's proposed with the EU.

    I agree that she's cunning and a survivor - and like Gove she's one of the few Cabinet Ministers (of any party) who seems to genuinely think through the issues she's handling and how to resolve them, whether that be equalities or foreign relations. That seems to me to be a good positive.
    You may be right. I would not be surprised to see her winning. She feels to me like an unknown quantity. But that is probably down to my ignorance. But while I was more positive about her in the past there is something about her now that makes me uneasy.
    Betting Post. I would think the scenario is more similar to following Thatcher than after May, because May’s government was paralysed by inability to get Brexit done, it was an ideological split over type of Brexit, there was a clear leader and way forward waiting to take over. My Dad tells me Major won because he had the blessing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters, which may have been to stop the candidates those supporters didn’t like. This election could come down to something similar - continuity v change in direction.

    Now we are here and it is happening, if you havn’t held great office of state for long, or a Mayor or LOTO, being an unknown quantity might be more handicap than advantage imo. Those who like the Boris Brexit brand and promises might pile in behind Liz Truss as “continuity candidate” putting her into last two and most likely winner. Pile in behind her in much same way Major got it to stop others getting it. if you are candidate for a brand change from Boris and his positions and policies - is the Blukipper membership really up for change?

    Right now I would have Truss favourite. But it will be interesting to see what sort of roll bookies favourite Mourdant can get on.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,584
    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Views on contenders:

    Sunak - no
    Javid: hmmm
    Mordaunt: no - said daft things about Brexit, organised that ludicrous Leadsom March and got utterly pawned by Mumsnet the other day
    Truss: absolutely not
    Tugendhat: maybe depending on his team
    Braverman: please God no
    Wallace: possibly

    Curious why you say absolutely not about Truss?

    I believe you've been very positive about her in the past on her role for Equalities and Women's issues which I know is an issue close to your heart?

    So I'm wondering what she's said or done to make her absolutely not, despite that?
    She can stay as Equalities Minister or Kemi can do it.

    But I don't think she has what it takes to be PM.

    She may well get it, mind.
    Do you mind if I ask why?

    She's been in the Cabinet about a decade under three very different Prime Ministers. I can't really think of any scandals anywhere she's been, other than she once spoke about cheese and pork markets weirdly nearly a decade ago.

    Seems like a sensible, moderate choice to me.
    OK - recently she has been too obviously playing at being the next Maggie. I like ambition but in her it has felt inauthentic in the sense of wanting the job in order to be PM rather than in order to achieve something.

    Why does she want the job? What does she want to do with it? When she speaks about this it feels to me like empty-headed slogans, a series of cliches, rather than anything thought through and felt.

    I liked how she went about the Equalities brief because I felt she had though through the issues and tried to come up with a sensible practical compromise. And she also did it quietly without seeking to weaponise it.

    I don't know what she stands for. I worry that she is going to appeal to the worst aspects of the Tory membership if it will get her the job regardless of whether it works or is in the best interests of the country ie that we get Boris in a dress.

    I may be wrong on that. She is cunning and a survivor. But she has seemed out of her depth as Foreign Secretary and too inclined to play to the gallery.

    Really, what I want is a leader who is going to be honest about the problems we face and how we are going to have to deal with them. I do not see many politicians willing to do that. And I see too many who are more interested in being PM than in using that power for a purpose. And far too many whose thinking amounts to a stream of off the shelf cliches and slogans which a moderately intelligent 15-year old could easily pull apart.
    Bizarre post. None of the candidates fulfil what you say. No politician for that matter or at least no politician in government is going to be "honest about the problems we face".

    Or does a dark suit and tie make someone more credible?
    What a bizarre response. What have suits got to do with it?

    We have had politicians in the past who have been honest about problems Thatcher for instance was frank about wanting to arrest Britain's decline and that this was not going to be easy.

    We face a lot of problems. We are not even going to begin solving them if we don't recognise the mess we are in.

    But, yeah, politicians prefer pandering to the fantasies of voters .... and so the mess gets worse.
    The next year or two is going to be horrific economically. Who will have the guts to be honest with the public about it?
    As May demonstrated, honesty with the public about bad news is not in one's electoral interest.
    Do you really think Mrs "Brexit Means Brexit" was honest with the public?

    She avoided any difficult choices with the public until it was too late. Her care home initiative hadn't had any honest legwork done before it was announced and was intended to be popular.

    The only honest thing she said was about scrapping the triple lock. Respect to her for that one. 👍
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    Lab + Grn 50%
    Fifty percent.

    FIFTY
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,342

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    The key thing about EPL is they haven't been just taking Bet365 or Ladbrokes money, they have been taking gangsters money, and they also now promoting dodgy as hell crypto stuff.

    Everybody knows it, yet the clubs just turn a blind eye to the fact these companies often don't even have a functioning website accessible in the west.
    Bet 365, Ladrokes and PP all operate in what they call grey markets, but are really illegal in the country they are taking from bets from. Not that different from what the other shirts sponsors do, apart from they also have big UK licensed operations as well.

    The thing that has always confused me is how accepting they are of Brighton (Bloom) and Benham (Brentford) especially but also others like Stoke and Cardiff, who are clearly funded significantly (if indirectly) from betting on football matches. Yet woe betide a goal keeper having a bit of fun back after Paddies fat shamed him.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,011
    Farooq said:

    Five months ago I said on here I'll join the SNP if Patel becomes PM.

    I'd like to up the stakes and say that I'll donate a 4-figure sum to them too.

    I wouldn't go that far but I agree it would be a very dark day for the country.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896
    All the ballots could be held next week. One each day instead of having a 48 hour gap between them.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,707

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    We also assume the Red Wall is coming back - people believed for a long time only Johnson could do that. And now he's gone.

    We will see.

    I think things are now very uncertain, as a Labour person Morduant is who I most fear.

    I am sort of hoping for Mordaunt, sorry old chap! The one thing you may be able to rely on is that the Tory selectorate is full of swiveleyed nutjobs, so they are most likely to pick some loon
    Only if given a chance to pick a loon from two candidates.

    MPs have to be loon-filters.
    Which is where Labour MPs screwed up in 2015 - they didn't do their job as required by the rules.

    It'll depend how the final number shake out, but if one candidate gets an absolute majority of MPs in a ballot of three or even four candidates it's difficult to see that the members should be allowed to overturn that.

    FWIW Boris achieved both, whilst May had 60% of three candidates, and there was no round of four in her election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,706
    I'd think the Tories would be relieved at anything over 30% at the moment, though the LLG aggregate at 62% is notably high.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited July 7

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    The key thing about EPL is they haven't been just taking Bet365 or Ladbrokes money, they have been taking gangsters money, and they also now promoting dodgy as hell crypto stuff.

    Everybody knows it, yet the clubs just turn a blind eye to the fact these companies often don't even have a functioning website accessible in the west.
    Bet 365, Ladrokes and PP all operate in what they call grey markets, but are really illegal in the country they are taking from bets from. Not that different from what the other shirts sponsors do, apart from they also have big UK licensed operations as well.

    The thing that has always confused me is how accepting they are of Brighton (Bloom) and Benham (Brentford) especially but also others like Stoke and Cardiff, who are clearly funded significantly (if indirectly) from betting on football matches. Yet woe betide a goal keeper having a bit of fun back after Paddies fat shamed him.
    There is a huge difference between bet365 and these betting companies nobody has heard of and change their name every other month....they are owned by a man who the FBI says is the head of the one of the major triad gangs and the software company is connected to Eastern european mafia figures. They only exist to facilitate betting in China.

    Your point about Bloom (i don't think Benham is still active bettor), yes I have no idea how he can be an owner, and yet everybody knows he is making billions of dollars of bets on football every year.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,342

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
    Oi, Fabricant wants a word. As do Francois, Dorries, et al.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504

    Farooq said:

    Five months ago I said on here I'll join the SNP if Patel becomes PM.

    I'd like to up the stakes and say that I'll donate a 4-figure sum to them too.

    I wouldn't go that far but I agree it would be a very dark day for the country.
    One smirking ghoul has been bad enough, but two in a row and I'm tapping out, DONE finished OVER.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,011

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
    Don't forget Mad Nad.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    In the official readout of today's Cabinet, No10 said
    @BorisJohnson told his colleagues that "major fiscal decisions should be left for the next Prime Minister".
    There goes that tax cuts plan that was due next week.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1545076639817760768
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    Farooq said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    Lab + Grn 50%
    Fifty percent.

    FIFTY
    Add Lib Dems 62.

    It’s going to be hard work for the Tory’s from here, but for how long for?

    Psephological and Betting Post. Norman Tebbitt called 92 a loss, for the number of seats won and fragile the majority. Truth is, from landslide of 1987 it was not until 2015 before Tories put on many more seats at an election than previously held, and this only just took them over 200. That nearly thirty years makes some posts today like “Tories only need a decent leader now to maintain the red wall” sound fanciful imo.

    Whoever wins this leadership race will inherit brand Boris - do they choose to run against Brand Boris now, or stand more chance as Continuity Boris? When we answer this question and bet, surely most of us have to answer it not as ourselves, but as the Tory membership would? And how Blukip is it still these days?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why allowing the fat toad to squat is a bad idea...

    Exclusive: The Premier League has halted plans for clubs to vote on a voluntary ban on shirt sponsorship by gambling companies as the crisis engulfing Boris Johnson and his administration threatens to delay crucial betting industry reforms.
    https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-gambling-ban-vote-amid-westminster-turmoil-12647726

    Smoke screen by the premier league from having to make a difficult decision for them to voluntarily unhook themselves from taking dodgy money. Who is PM is irrelevant to the fact they take millions from gambling companies facilitating illegal gambling in China and involving Triads and Eastern European mafia.
    It's an excuse, not a reason...
    Given how quick some parts of the media to get outraged about middle eastern money, I am surprised how easily the premier league have got away with this. It isn't about being sponsored by gambling companies, it is they are sponsored by gangsters under taking illegal activities.
    The PL (like all sports organisations) should have noticed by now that a ban on gambling sponsorship is coming, so they might as well get out in front of it. Snooker for one has figured it out, it's been moving away from gambling sponsorship for a couple of years, and darts has caught on in the last year or so too - a handful of years ago I would have thought both sports' tours were at significant risk given their earlier reliance on betting sponsorship.
    Snooker and darts probably learned the lesson better than most sports from having to get off the tobacco money.
    Snooker's problem in future if the international situation goes pear-shaped is it gets a lot of money from China, where the sport is big.
    It's become a lot less reliant on China in the last couple of years, certainly in terms of staging events. Are the TV rights that critical?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495
    MrEd said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
    I’m not at all convinced that’s even true support. More likely people are presented with “Reform” and think, “Reform? Well, the rest of them are shit…”
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Conflicted in the tennis

    I am a fan of Halep, but I do have Rybikina at 160/1 for the tournament...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,489
    As a dog returneth to his Gromit, so a fool returneth to his folly, is my view. Cannot believe that the cretins on both sides of the hoC have still not seen that what you don't do is give Phatboi an even break. Ever. get rid now.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Views on contenders:

    Sunak - no
    Javid: hmmm
    Mordaunt: no - said daft things about Brexit, organised that ludicrous Leadsom March and got utterly pawned by Mumsnet the other day
    Truss: absolutely not
    Tugendhat: maybe depending on his team
    Braverman: please God no
    Wallace: possibly

    Curious why you say absolutely not about Truss?

    I believe you've been very positive about her in the past on her role for Equalities and Women's issues which I know is an issue close to your heart?

    So I'm wondering what she's said or done to make her absolutely not, despite that?
    She can stay as Equalities Minister or Kemi can do it.

    But I don't think she has what it takes to be PM.

    She may well get it, mind.
    Do you mind if I ask why?

    She's been in the Cabinet about a decade under three very different Prime Ministers. I can't really think of any scandals anywhere she's been, other than she once spoke about cheese and pork markets weirdly nearly a decade ago.

    Seems like a sensible, moderate choice to me.
    OK - recently she has been too obviously playing at being the next Maggie. I like ambition but in her it has felt inauthentic in the sense of wanting the job in order to be PM rather than in order to achieve something.

    Why does she want the job? What does she want to do with it? When she speaks about this it feels to me like empty-headed slogans, a series of cliches, rather than anything thought through and felt.

    I liked how she went about the Equalities brief because I felt she had though through the issues and tried to come up with a sensible practical compromise. And she also did it quietly without seeking to weaponise it.

    I don't know what she stands for. I worry that she is going to appeal to the worst aspects of the Tory membership if it will get her the job regardless of whether it works or is in the best interests of the country ie that we get Boris in a dress.

    I may be wrong on that. She is cunning and a survivor. But she has seemed out of her depth as Foreign Secretary and too inclined to play to the gallery.

    Really, what I want is a leader who is going to be honest about the problems we face and how we are going to have to deal with them. I do not see many politicians willing to do that. And I see too many who are more interested in being PM than in using that power for a purpose. And far too many whose thinking amounts to a stream of off the shelf cliches and slogans which a moderately intelligent 15-year old could easily pull apart.
    Bizarre post. None of the candidates fulfil what you say. No politician for that matter or at least no politician in government is going to be "honest about the problems we face".

    Or does a dark suit and tie make someone more credible?
    What a bizarre response. What have suits got to do with it?

    We have had politicians in the past who have been honest about problems Thatcher for instance was frank about wanting to arrest Britain's decline and that this was not going to be easy.

    We face a lot of problems. We are not even going to begin solving them if we don't recognise the mess we are in.

    But, yeah, politicians prefer pandering to the fantasies of voters .... and so the mess gets worse.
    The next year or two is going to be horrific economically. Who will have the guts to be honest with the public about it?
    As May demonstrated, honesty with the public about bad news is not in one's electoral interest.
    Do you really think Mrs "Brexit Means Brexit" was honest with the public?

    She avoided any difficult choices with the public until it was too late. Her care home initiative hadn't had any honest legwork done before it was announced and was intended to be popular.

    The only honest thing she said was about scrapping the triple lock. Respect to her for that one. 👍
    She admited that social care was fucked and would need shitloads more money.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
    Don't forget Mad Nad.
    Hmm, I still think Rees Mogg wins. Looks ludicrous, sounds ludicrous, IS ludicrous. Dorries is just plain ludicrous, so I think Moggy wins.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,706
    MrEd said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
    Yes, you see that sometimes though. Used to back in the day with UKIP too. I take it as a sign that the sample read probably a bit biased to the right in the previous poll and biased to the left in this poll. It's the sort of random variation you'd expect to see due to sample variation - particularly as the large degree of weighting adjustments reduces the effective sample size.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896
    edited July 7
    Scott_xP said:

    Conflicted in the tennis

    I am a fan of Halep, but I do have Rybikina at 160/1 for the tournament...

    You must be being offered a hefty cash out option at the moment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095
    Scott_xP said:

    In the official readout of today's Cabinet, No10 said
    @BorisJohnson told his colleagues that "major fiscal decisions should be left for the next Prime Minister".
    There goes that tax cuts plan that was due next week.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1545076639817760768

    Time to get a shift on getting the next PM then….

  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 292
    Andy_JS said:

    All the ballots could be held next week. One each day instead of having a 48 hour gap between them.

    Couldn't they utilise the French approach and have two rounds with anyone with less than 12.5% droping out after round one?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,495

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    What we’ve learned is that 31% of the population will continue to vote Tory, even if they were literally being raped by Mark Francois.

    So long as the triple lock remains in place.

    Slightly higher than some historic floors, due to demographic changes.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504
    IshmaelZ said:

    As a dog returneth to his Gromit, so a fool returneth to his folly, is my view. Cannot believe that the cretins on both sides of the hoC have still not seen that what you don't do is give Phatboi an even break. Ever. get rid now.

    To be fair people on both sides are saying the same: get rid today.
    Not enough, possibly, but it's being said. Including the next-but-one PM, Starmer.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286
    What chance Mercer re-emerges?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    Real pick-up artist energy from a young Nadhim Zahawi 🔥 https://twitter.com/helennianias/status/1544972161433145344/photo/1


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
    Oi, Fabricant wants a word. As do Francois, Dorries, et al.
    Actually Fabricunt is defo a contender, even more so than Fatty Francois or Doris.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,236

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Oh, you're back are you....

    Delighted to see it. Moonrabbit too. So the perfect outcome.

    With a new leader for the Tories we lose the strong and toxic Brexit influence. Labour are well placed. Starmer is no great star, but he's done well in choosing those around him. The Tories need to do well not to go down to a very bad defeat. (And so hopefully they'll choose a leader that can do well!)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,089
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Views on contenders:

    Sunak - no
    Javid: hmmm
    Mordaunt: no - said daft things about Brexit, organised that ludicrous Leadsom March and got utterly pawned by Mumsnet the other day
    Truss: absolutely not
    Tugendhat: maybe depending on his team
    Braverman: please God no
    Wallace: possibly

    Curious why you say absolutely not about Truss?

    I believe you've been very positive about her in the past on her role for Equalities and Women's issues which I know is an issue close to your heart?

    So I'm wondering what she's said or done to make her absolutely not, despite that?
    She can stay as Equalities Minister or Kemi can do it.

    But I don't think she has what it takes to be PM.

    She may well get it, mind.
    Do you mind if I ask why?

    She's been in the Cabinet about a decade under three very different Prime Ministers. I can't really think of any scandals anywhere she's been, other than she once spoke about cheese and pork markets weirdly nearly a decade ago.

    Seems like a sensible, moderate choice to me.
    OK - recently she has been too obviously playing at being the next Maggie. I like ambition but in her it has felt inauthentic in the sense of wanting the job in order to be PM rather than in order to achieve something.

    Why does she want the job? What does she want to do with it? When she speaks about this it feels to me like empty-headed slogans, a series of cliches, rather than anything thought through and felt.

    I liked how she went about the Equalities brief because I felt she had though through the issues and tried to come up with a sensible practical compromise. And she also did it quietly without seeking to weaponise it.

    I don't know what she stands for. I worry that she is going to appeal to the worst aspects of the Tory membership if it will get her the job regardless of whether it works or is in the best interests of the country ie that we get Boris in a dress.

    I may be wrong on that. She is cunning and a survivor. But she has seemed out of her depth as Foreign Secretary and too inclined to play to the gallery.

    Really, what I want is a leader who is going to be honest about the problems we face and how we are going to have to deal with them. I do not see many politicians willing to do that. And I see too many who are more interested in being PM than in using that power for a purpose. And far too many whose thinking amounts to a stream of off the shelf cliches and slogans which a moderately intelligent 15-year old could easily pull apart.
    Bizarre post. None of the candidates fulfil what you say. No politician for that matter or at least no politician in government is going to be "honest about the problems we face".

    Or does a dark suit and tie make someone more credible?
    What a bizarre response. What have suits got to do with it?
    I suppose on inspection I noted an immediate and conclusive dismissal of the female candidates.
    I've explained my reasons for dismissing all 3.

    I really don't care what sex or race they are.Their back story is the least important thing about a candidate.

    What I want is evidence of character, integrity, sharpness of mind and a willingness to think and challenge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited July 7
    Should also be noted that dodgy Asian betting companies the EPL clubs take cash from also use slave labour in places like Philippines, where they ship Chinese labour there and then enslave them to work in virtual casinos.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,826
    Scott_xP said:

    Real pick-up artist energy from a young Nadhim Zahawi 🔥 https://twitter.com/helennianias/status/1544972161433145344/photo/1


    I'm thinking struggling early-career magician.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,243

    I'd think the Tories would be relieved at anything over 30% at the moment, though the LLG aggregate at 62% is notably high.

    31% is really quite something and I think shows the power of the culture war in British politics now. I can't imagine today's Tories on 31% based on their recent record and behaviour if Brexit weren't still salient among a section of the population.

    Other reasons they are not lower?

    - Starmer unexciting
    - Lingering scars of the Corbyn years (I expect many ex-Tory voters will still be disinclined to reunite with their old party only 3 years after Boris going)
    - Respect for government's stance in the Ukraine war
    - No credible right of centre alternative
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,708
    There’s a very real possibility (probability?) that Putin deploys the gas weapon in late autumn. $ value of gas exports to Europe is a paltry 3.5% of Russia’s total exports and he’s selling more barrels of oil than before the war started. Minimal impact on him, massive impact on Europe, at a time when things are likely to be looking bad for him on the battlefield. And it’s a card he may as well play, given Europe has said it is diversifying away from piped Russian gas as soon as it can.

    The UK is saying it will close the gas interconnectors to Europe if that happens but this neglects that Norway can divert our supply to Europe directly. There’s a very real prospect of rolling blackouts this winter.

    The Conservative Party are a f***ing disgrace if they send this to the members and don’t have someone getting a grip of the multiple crises by the end of next week.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Real pick-up artist energy from a young Nadhim Zahawi 🔥 https://twitter.com/helennianias/status/1544972161433145344/photo/1


    I'm thinking struggling early-career magician.
    I'm wondering whether Chris Pincher ever hit on him?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317

    Roger said:

    I missed the resignation speech. The Huffington Post described it as 'graceless' which isn't surprising because one of the most notable things about him is that he IS graceless. Charmless and graceless. I don't think he'll be missed at all.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-resignation-speech-theresa-may-cameron-blair-brown_uk_62c6bb65e4b0359fa477d629

    Weirdly Beth Rigby went all soft and called it 'classic Johnson' and 'dignified'
    Then Adam Boulton came on and pissed all over their chips
    I saw that, it was very funny. 😆 no love lost between bunter and Boris, or was it bunter and anything Beth says?

    I thought it was okay address from Boris. Horrible for him to have to deliver so soon, but he managed it without too much praising up his achievements and this being rather dignified about it.
    The "herd" thing was characteristically twattish
    Overall it was okay.

    It was like highwayman cad from an old film, even on the gallows in the last scene, he was his same old self, in that if you didn’t know him at all you would like him.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,011
    biggles said:

    What chance Mercer re-emerges?

    I get the impression he is far happier being a good constituency MP and fighting selected causes rather than being in power. I may be wrong but I don't see him wanting to move up from the back-benches. Perhaps the only thing that might change that would be back to Armed Forces Minister or Defence. But even then I get the impression he thinks he can do more outside Government than inside.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103

    Scott_xP said:

    Real pick-up artist energy from a young Nadhim Zahawi 🔥 https://twitter.com/helennianias/status/1544972161433145344/photo/1


    I'm thinking struggling early-career magician.
    Little Britain hypnotist.....
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504
    Applicant said:

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
    Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway.
    That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,195
    MrEd said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
    No-one has heard a peep out of them for months.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,618
    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    TimS said:

    I'd think the Tories would be relieved at anything over 30% at the moment, though the LLG aggregate at 62% is notably high.

    31% is really quite something and I think shows the power of the culture war in British politics now. I can't imagine today's Tories on 31% based on their recent record and behaviour if Brexit weren't still salient among a section of the population.

    Other reasons they are not lower?

    - Starmer unexciting
    - Lingering scars of the Corbyn years (I expect many ex-Tory voters will still be disinclined to reunite with their old party only 3 years after Boris going)
    - Respect for government's stance in the Ukraine war
    - No credible right of centre alternative
    30% is their floor, just as it is for Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    US basketball player Brittney Griner has pleaded guilty to drug charges in a Russian court but has denied deliberately breaking the law.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286

    biggles said:

    What chance Mercer re-emerges?

    I get the impression he is far happier being a good constituency MP and fighting selected causes rather than being in power. I may be wrong but I don't see him wanting to move up from the back-benches. Perhaps the only thing that might change that would be back to Armed Forces Minister or Defence. But even then I get the impression he thinks he can do more outside Government than inside.
    Ok but can we all talk about him a lot please? No particular reason. Honest.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,243
    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,781
    Applicant said:

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
    True.

    They have a million miles to go, but they've come a million miles since the last election, so who is to say they won't do it? As long as they continue to receive help from the Conservative Party they have the potential to do it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286
    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners

    You forgot union bashing.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg will not be standing for Tory leader

    The only person more ludicrous and unsuitable than the previous incumbent.
    Oi, Fabricant wants a word. As do Francois, Dorries, et al.
    Actually Fabricunt is defo a contender, even more so than Fatty Francois or Doris.
    Yuy, I got a flug from someone! Oh, I see why u slight slip of the keybourd!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,661
    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896

    Andy_JS said:

    All the ballots could be held next week. One each day instead of having a 48 hour gap between them.

    Couldn't they utilise the French approach and have two rounds with anyone with less than 12.5% droping out after round one?
    I think there is a 5% rule after the first round.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,896
    Gove announces he won't be standing.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,286

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Probably depends on whether you watched his speech.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750
    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,750
    biggles said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners

    You forgot union bashing.
    I do hope so!
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,011
    moonshine said:

    There’s a very real possibility (probability?) that Putin deploys the gas weapon in late autumn. $ value of gas exports to Europe is a paltry 3.5% of Russia’s total exports and he’s selling more barrels of oil than before the war started. Minimal impact on him, massive impact on Europe, at a time when things are likely to be looking bad for him on the battlefield. And it’s a card he may as well play, given Europe has said it is diversifying away from piped Russian gas as soon as it can.

    The UK is saying it will close the gas interconnectors to Europe if that happens but this neglects that Norway can divert our supply to Europe directly. There’s a very real prospect of rolling blackouts this winter.

    The Conservative Party are a f***ing disgrace if they send this to the members and don’t have someone getting a grip of the multiple crises by the end of next week.

    The UK is increasing gas supply specifically to send to Europe. It is also pushing ahead with new gas fields - I just finished a 4 well development in the Southern North Sea earlier this year. We will still find it hard but we will be in a better position than many other countries.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,489
    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
This discussion has been closed.