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As big dog Gromit quits Wallace is who Tory members want to replace him – politicalbetting.com

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Universal I imagine. He's completely deserved his fate, but there's hurt and pain that everyone can empathise with.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Disagree. With a big enough constituency of MPs it will be about Ukraine and our resilience to open economic warfare with Russia this winter. Which means we may not (should not) get to the members stage.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    I am a bit of a softy really, so I felt a bit sorry for him for a nanosecond and then snapped out of it and laughed and laughed. Couldn't happen to a nicer man!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    How’s that reflected in the polling about people’s priorities?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree.
    That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MrEd said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
    I’m not at all convinced that’s even true support. More likely people are presented with “Reform” and think, “Reform? Well, the rest of them are shit…”
    Reform only got around two per cent in Wakefield.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Recency bias: for the next 24 hours the resignation speech will be foregrounded. Then she will remember the other stuff.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    I am a bit of a softy really, so I felt a bit sorry for him for a nanosecond and then snapped out of it and laughed and laughed. Couldn't happen to a nicer man!
    I'm sad he didn't slip on the kerb and impale his hand on the railing
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree.
    That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
    The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited July 2022
    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Need to see others but given they are coming off a three month high of 35 (bar one outlier) on Monday with R and W its as good as theyd expect after the worst 72 hours since Black Wednesday or Mays deal catastrophe for the party.

    Im increasingly inclined to a 38/38/14/SNP 4 GE result 2% swing either way
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022
    moonshine said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Disagree. With a big enough constituency of MPs it will be about Ukraine and our resilience to open economic warfare with Russia this winter. Which means we may not (should not) get to the members stage.
    One can build an economic security thesis that unites that with a step back from net zero, a boost to defence, tax cuts, and some red meat for the red wall.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Scott_xP said:

    Conflicted in the tennis

    I am a fan of Halep, but I do have Rybikina at 160/1 for the tournament...

    Hope the long punt comes off for you. Wouldn’t be a conflict for me. ££££
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
    Small feet small…. I wonder if the saying is true.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree.
    That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
    The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
    Yes, I'm not saying it's not a real thing. I'm just saying don't get excited about any opinion at all until it goes over the 5% threshold. 1 in 20 people is batshit insane and will think anything you could imagine and plenty of things you hope to never imagine.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited July 2022

    MrEd said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
    Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
    I’m not at all convinced that’s even true support. More likely people are presented with “Reform” and think, “Reform? Well, the rest of them are shit…”
    Do R&W cue party names? As you say, I'm not totally convinced most people know who Reform UK actually are. Clearly, people here do and some of their poll will be "real". But I do wonder if a lot of it is essentially noise.

    I mean, they've never stood under that name in a General Election and, of the 20,000 principal authority councillors in the UK, they have seven. The Greens - who they often poll fairly close to - have well over 500, and people clearly know who they are and broadly what they are about even if they are weak in large parts of the country. Do Reform UK meaningfully have ANY brand to speak of?

    Would be interesting to know what the evidence is, and how a relatively generic made-up name would poll (e.g. Constitution Party, Modernity Party etc).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Need to see others but given they are coming off a three month high of 35 (bar one outlier) on Monday with R and W its as good as theyd expect after the worst 72 hours since Black Wednesday or Mays deal catastrophe for the party.

    Im increasingly inclined to a 38/38/14/SNP 4 GE result 2% swing either way
    Don’t disagree. I still think the Tories squeak it with a half decent leader, SNP Coalition fear, and incumbency benefits. The time after they clearly lose power for at least 10-15 years.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    Polar bears, bears, alligators, and the danger of jumping in to what you thought was a warm Yellowstone pool and finding it is a boiling one.

    I did that at Turkana in Kenya, didn't realise a pool was volcanically heated, jumped in, exquisitely terrifying couple of seconds when you wonder if your flesh is going to be boiled off your bones.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
    Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician.
    I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case.
    I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
    Small feet small…. I wonder if the saying is true.
    I'll let you ask him. I suspect that he will claim an inverse rule.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    The question is, who should be next Chancellor?

    The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.

    This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
    No not really. What he has been is quietly efficient and effective. Which is exactly what I would want in a Minister.
    I don't like him, but I admire his professionalism.
    I have something of a soft spot for him. He reminds me of Keith Joseph. He knows he is not popular and he knows he probably doesn't have what it takes for the top job - even if his ex wife used to think otherwise. But he also has a cracking brain on him and exactly the sort of attention to detail that Johnson lacks. I also get the impression he genuinely wants to get on with people across the political spectrum. A policy man rather than a leader and we could do with more of them in Parliament and in Government.
    My opinion on Michael Gove is simply based on this logic -

    Since Boris Johnson went out of his way to boot him out of the government, Gove MUST be a member of the caretaker government.

    Solely for purpose of rubbing Big Dog's nose in his own mess, as a lesson that NEXT time he shits on Her Majesty's carpet, he gets sent to "the farm".
  • https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/746219859604713473

    As a remainer I am of course gutted by the result. But it is now my duty to make sure The UK thrives in the world and stays together.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Good afternoon PB

    Just a little bit of news going on today then lol!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/

    And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-of-testicleeating-fish-8755664.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
    Small feet small…. I wonder if the saying is true.
    I'll let you ask him. I suspect that he will claim an inverse rule.
    I don’t think you need to be mystic Meg to call that one 😂
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
    Small feet small…. I wonder if the saying is true.
    I'll let you ask him. I suspect that he will claim an inverse rule.
    An inverse rule? Is that a device for measuring lengths of less than 0?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Farooq said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    What small feet you have sir!
    Small feet small…. I wonder if the saying is true.
    I'll let you ask him. I suspect that he will claim an inverse rule.
    An inverse rule? Is that a device for measuring lengths of less than 0?
    haha! I hope you are not casting aspersions about a certain poster's manhood (he with the diddy feet)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

    Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    I have just spat out my coffee....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/

    And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-oftesticleeating-fish-8755664.html
    Fear not. Your testicles are safe after all.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/10/world/europe/scandanavia-swim-warning

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    omg just remmbered the resignation honours list. Arise Lady Lulu of Lytle.

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1545084643812204545
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    I have just spat out my coffee....
    It would certainly feck up my leadership betting
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    Oh god we're going to have like 20 different non-entities coming forward to waste there and our time again aren't we?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    One nugget in Redfield.....
    As opposed to his YouGov bounce, Rishis figures took a dive to -15 following his quitting......
    And Bozo is, unsurprisingly at a rock bottom -31
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    He's being urged to stand by Michael Green.
    I'd rather keep Massive Johnson.

    More likely he's hoping to raise his profile in the hope of being kept on - which as a minister who has misled the House, he should not be.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
    Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway.
    That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
    Hubris is alive and well...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    Oh god we're going to have like 20 different non-entities coming forward to waste there and our time again aren't we?
    Sam Gyimah has entered the chat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    biggles said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/

    And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-oftesticleeating-fish-8755664.html
    Fear not. Your testicles are safe after all.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/10/world/europe/scandanavia-swim-warning

    Oh, that's a relief. But the next aquarium escapee/dumpee may not be vegan.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    omg just remmbered the resignation honours list. Arise Lady Lulu of Lytle.

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1545084643812204545

    Nothing wrong with her except success and terrible taste. not a Lady Mone by any stretch.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    Cookie said:

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
    Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician.
    I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case.
    I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
    Snrf, snf, srrfn [*cuts onions*]
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
    Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway.
    That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
    Hubris is alive and well...
    Well, given I'm not a Labour voter and I'm not saying that it's always going to be this way, no, not at all. I'm just telling you that you lot have fucked it so badly that the other lot are now hogging the centre ground.
    You can win it back but by fuck you've got some grovelling to do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    Oh god we're going to have like 20 different non-entities coming forward to waste there and our time again aren't we?
    Sam Gyimah has entered the chat
    Part of it is to raise their profile just so they can be considered for Cabinet when the real winner comes through.

    These days though, with the quality of a lot of them, they actually are deluded enough to believe it should be them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    Do we know if Sunak and Javid might cut a deal?

    If so you would surely have to make whichever of them steps forward favourite.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    I can’t see Sunak getting the job . Too much baggage now and I think he missed his opportunity.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    omg just remmbered the resignation honours list. Arise Lady Lulu of Lytle.

    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1545084643812204545

    Correction - resignation dishonours list.

    WHY in hell should The Caretaker be allowed ANY privileges or whatever that are NOT expressly provided for by statute law? That can and should be changed pronto to tighten the leash if need be.

    Screw what's customary, traditional, expected - BJx2 has forfeited ANY right to such consideration.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    In the nuddie then presumably.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    If Wallace doesn't stand, any hint on who he might back? Because that might be rather important.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    EPG said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

    Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
    No their policies for achieving their goals are an elite, urban, fiction.

    How many protests are there outside the embassies of the people doing the polluting? China, India, America? How much lobbying of their politicians? How much boycotting of their products?

    No lets target ordinary working class brits we despise anyway because they don;t have a gender studies degree....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    ydoethur said:

    If Wallace doesn't stand, any hint on who he might back? Because that might be rather important.

    He’ll certainly swing any auction over defence spending. Hunt?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    EPG said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

    Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
    I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.

    Oh god we're going to have like 20 different non-entities coming forward to waste there and our time again aren't we?
    Sam Gyimah has entered the chat
    Part of it is to raise their profile just so they can be considered for Cabinet when the real winner comes through.

    These days though, with the quality of a lot of them, they actually are deluded enough to believe it should be them.
    Looking at the losers last time around:

    Hunt - offered a job, didn't take it
    Gove - Cabinet office
    Javid - Chancellor
    Stewart - no job
    Raab - FCA
    Hancock - Health
    Leadsom - Business
    Harper- no job
    McVey - Housing (attending cabinet)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    England: Jason Roy, Jos Buttler, Dawid Malan, Moeen Ali, Liam Livingstone, Harry Brook, Sam Curran, Chris Jordan, Tymal Mills, Reece Topley, Matt Parkinson.

    Salt not getting in the team seems strange. Do England need 3 left arm seam bowlers?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree.
    That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
    The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
    Sure.

    Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.

    Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.

    For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).

    There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.

    I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Largest lead for Labour since mid-January.

    Westminster Voting Intention (7 July):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
    Green 7% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-4)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 3 July

    https://t.co/K0y4egVrGL https://t.co/At4k6oBDZb

    Taken this morning

    This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
    Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
    Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree.
    That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
    The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
    Sure.

    Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.

    Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.

    For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).

    There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.

    I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
    Judging from the vox pops his core supporters are boomers in sunglasses wandering around provincial high streets during the daytime.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    EPG said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

    Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
    I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
    Ok, so no definite answer - just think very hard, and "probably" build hundreds of something no community wants within a few hundred kilometres, but that tickles the right-wing bloke mega-engineering fetish. (Still might be necessary of course, but not 100% of the solution.)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited July 2022
    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….

    It is usual to carry relief pilots for long haul
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    If the leadership descends into a who hates the EU the most campaign that would be good news for Labour and the Lib Dems .

    A campaign that actually accepts Brexit has happened and doesn’t want continual conflict with the EU would be bad news for the opposition .

    The Tories can lose quite a lot of their new former Red Wall seats and still get a decent majority as long they keep their southern seats.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Tory infighting over the EU and dud leaders was what did for the Tories - that and a Labour PM now widely reviled by his own party.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    You have to allow for the unknown factor. I’d want to normalise these by also pitting Starmer against a made up name.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Depends who they choose. I think it shouldn't take too long to detox. On the other hand if they choose some headbanging Brexiteer they are fecked.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited July 2022
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.

    If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.

    This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.

    Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
    Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway.
    That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
    Hubris is alive and well...
    Well, given I'm not a Labour voter and I'm not saying that it's always going to be this way, no, not at all. I'm just telling you that you lot have fucked it so badly that the other lot are now hogging the centre ground.
    You can win it back but by fuck you've got some grovelling to do.
    "you lot"???
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited July 2022

    If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….



    aww
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Barnesian said:

    If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….



    ..
    She reminds me a little of a tortoise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….

    Fucked up at both ends, then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    I think he regular pisses himself but it doesn't have much to do with what he has to say, as half the time he doesn't even have a clue where he is.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Biden is pretty straight-talking for a President. He didn't like Johnson, mainly because he thought Brexit was dumb.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    biggles said:

    You have to allow for the unknown factor. I’d want to normalise these by also pitting Starmer against a made up name.
    Yes indeed. Mordaunts figures are a shocker though!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Depends who they choose. I think it shouldn't take too long to detox. On the other hand if they choose some headbanging Brexiteer they are fecked.
    The ERG, Boris's anti-EU brigade and the blue kippers are all still in the party. Expect a Brexiteer. Liz Truss need not bother showing up...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Tory infighting over the EU and dud leaders was what did for the Tories - that and a Labour PM now widely reviled by his own party.

    I see. Yesterday and today was not "infighting"? Just a misunderstanding?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited July 2022

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    I think he regular pisses himself but it doesn't have much to do with what he has to say, as half the time he doesn't even have a clue where he is.
    He put a medal on someone yesterday hanging down their back. Hes an embarssing cretin. Moreso than Bozo Bear

    CNN poll yesterday 10% economy going in right direction 88% wrong.
    He's more fucked than a horny MP
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Depends who they choose. I think it shouldn't take too long to detox. On the other hand if they choose some headbanging Brexiteer they are fecked.
    The ERG, Boris's anti-EU brigade and the blue kippers are all still in the party. Expect a Brexiteer. Liz Truss need not bother showing up...
    I am not so sure. I think the headbangers might get re-marginalised. We'll see
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Biden is pretty straight-talking for a President. He didn't like Johnson, mainly because he thought Brexit was dumb.
    because it was, but while I didn't support it, it is none of his f-ing business.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?

    Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited July 2022

    They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.

    This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
    Depends who they choose. I think it shouldn't take too long to detox. On the other hand if they choose some headbanging Brexiteer they are fecked.
    The ERG, Boris's anti-EU brigade and the blue kippers are all still in the party. Expect a Brexiteer. Liz Truss need not bother showing up...
    I am not so sure. I think the headbangers might get re-marginalised. We'll see
    I agree. I’m not a Tory, and that might make my opinion worthless, but it seems to me that that a red-wall/blue-wall moderate (e.g. Hunt) “dream ticket” beats the left over ERG. 2019 changed the balance.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/

    And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-of-testicleeating-fish-8755664.html
    Hah

    On the climb back to my cabin just now i saw a biiig snake. So maybe not so safe
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?

    Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
    It doesn't beat MR's trashing by republicans in his own back yard at the Utah convention.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?

    Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
    Mittens making a gaffe? Surely not!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    biggles said:

    You have to allow for the unknown factor. I’d want to normalise these by also pitting Starmer against a made up name.
    Yes indeed. Mordaunts figures are a shocker though!
    Yes, but those sort of polls are pretty meaningless. They tend to represent recognisability
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    I think he regular pisses himself but it doesn't have much to do with what he has to say, as half the time he doesn't even have a clue where he is.
    He put a medal on someone yesterday hanging down their back. Hes an embarssing cretin. Moreso than Bozo Bear

    CNN poll yesterday 10% economy going in right direction 88% wrong.
    He's more fucked than a horny MP
    no he isn't, he is plainly demented. Badmouthing the people propping him up is one thing, but not him. You may end up that way yourself one day.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Seems to correlate with how well known they are.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE



    Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops

    Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
    North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
    The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/

    And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-of-testicleeating-fish-8755664.html
    Hah

    On the climb back to my cabin just now i saw a biiig snake. So maybe not so safe
    That isn't a euphemism is it after I mentioned your small shoes?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).

    I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).

    So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”

    https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688

    This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
    Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?

    Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
    Oh yes. I remember that: 'There's some guy called Mitt Romney...'
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    If Boris Johnson is staying at Number 10 as Caretaker, does that mean he will have to clean up all the vomit himself from now on?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    EPG said:

    MISTY said:

    eek said:

    MISTY said:

    TimS said:

    The winning candidate is going to do it on:

    - Brexit but with new unicorns
    - Tax cuts
    - Protecting property prices
    - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric
    - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners


    Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
    Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
    From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.

    IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.

    That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.

    All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.

    Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
    I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
    "We need longer timescales." we are not going to get them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).

    I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).

    So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?

    The end. Memories of May are too fresh. 2019 was very specific circumstances.
This discussion has been closed.