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For those with short memories… – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554
    rcs1000 said:

    @Cyclefree has been banned for violating the "must be a snowflake rule"
    You want me to be hysterical? Me? An Italian-Irish woman?!

    Are you sure??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    Resignation following resignation on Sky

    Resign now Johnson and at least for once you will have done the right thing

    Why should he resign? The British people elected him for a 5 year term in 2019, most Tory MPs voted they had confidence in him just a month ago. Most of the Cabinet are still behind him.

    He won't resign. If Tory MPs want him out they will have to vote him out
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    You are crazy.

    He will go back to writing for money and on the speech circuit loop and that would be that. If he gets "revenge" it will be like John Major making snide remarks about Boris as PM, not trying to get back into Downing Street himself.

    I'm curious what you're going to write after your software update once the Tories have a new PM and you become an uberloyalist to them.
    I am not so sure about this. Boris Johnson's whole career has been on an upwards trajectory to this World King role he always yearned for, meeting some deep unfulfilled need for power and dominance stemming from his unhappy and unsettling childhood. The idea that he just retires graciously into the twilight world of corporate speaking gigs and boring ghostwritten books is for the birds I think.
    The Tory party may be about to discover that the outside pissing in iteration of Johnson is no less damaging than the inside pissing himself version.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103

    I do like the formalities of letter writing:

    "Dear Prime Minister... complete lack of confidence I have in your continuing leadership... poor judgment you have shown... impossible for me to square continued service with my conscience... country deserves better... WITH VERY BEST REGARDS, John".
    Yes. It makes these shysters sound respectable
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    rcs1000 said:

    And I'm assuming the massive increase in speed is based around not using truly random starting pixel patterns, but having a library of 20-30,000 which score well on many common metrics.
    That's one the advantage of starting with say 100 million pictures - another is that the system learns shortcuts so that it's no longer a set of monkeys that randomly strike a keyboard, you are using a set of monkeys that start with an English dictionary and insert one word after another...

    You also have feedback loops on successful paths so overtime approaches that rarely work are completely ignored.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,398
    eek said:

    The problem is that we don't really tax and spend. We tax and bribe - so for example we destroy SureStart which benefited families with young children and threw the money at pensioners instead.
    That will always be the way in a competitive democratic society.

    Much better to have government as small as possible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Simple task for Starmer. Find the best of the letters. Read them out one at a time. Does the PM agree? #PMQs
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1544625865752969216
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Boris 2022 exit back in to 1.11/1.12
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Leon said:

    What on earth is happening in Holland?


    “So, uh.... Dutch farmers have purchased a tank to use to block distribution centres.”

    https://twitter.com/therealkeean/status/1544465282957189120?s=21&t=x9sDd90Plg7h35d8qdOJ1w

    “Police have started...
    ...shooting
    ....at farmers

    Pretty sure this is how civil wars are started”

    https://twitter.com/joeblault/status/1544476205805719554?s=21&t=x9sDd90Plg7h35d8qdOJ1w

    @williamglenn mentioned this yesterday. Insane. Can anyone summarise?


    The green agenda, adopted by every government in the West after Trump's defeat, is a recipe for instability. The reason is that right now this agenda cannot deliver prosperity and progress. Quite the opposite, in fact.

    Biden, Johnson, Netherlands, France, Germany et al. All these governments are in turmoil and facing mounting upheaval and defeat.



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    The loyalists loyalist... v bad sign for PM https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1544625801823485952
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    So what? I imagine human consciousness went through some pretty primitive phases before getting where we are now, in fact "nothing new there at all" might be evolution's motto. Explaining something is not the same as explaining it away
    Yes, I was thinking the exact same thing. At each stage of evolution some nerd could have said, in a nasal voice, “So what, it’s only got three cells”, or “so what, it’s just a fish”, or “so what, it still shits in the woods, lol” right up to “so what, anyone can write a play in blank verse”

    Yet you’ve gone from yeast to William Shakespeare
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    HYUFD said:

    Why should he resign? The British people elected him for a 5 year term in 2019, most Tory MPs voted they had confidence in him just a month ago. Most of the Cabinet are still behind him.

    He won't resign. If Tory MPs want him out they will have to vote him out
    He has lost the confidence of his own mps and is holed below the waterline

    Any other PM would by now have done the decent thing and resigned
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2022

    That is probably true, but I do wonder how long a post Johnson Tory government can limp on. Rationally they would hold out as long as possible in the hope that their fortunes improve, but it's not hard to imagine them entering a death spiral in which rational thought disappears. It already feels like they are circling the plug-hole, even if as seems likely Johnson is jettisoned soon.
    I think this is a good point. It's hard to see the party uniting around any of the current potential replacement figures, and in any case they don't really have any good answers to the many problems besetting us. In particular, the original lie which propelled Boris into No 10 - that Brexit could be done without any inconvenience or economic fallout, and without damage to the Union - is one which is still central to the party's view of itself. That lie, which they remain so wedded to, will continue to block off the policy avenues which could help solve those problems, so they will continue to scratch around for magic solutions.
  • eek said:

    That's one the advantage of starting with say 100 million pictures - another is that the system learns shortcuts so that it's no longer a set of monkeys that randomly strike a keyboard, you are using a set of monkeys that start with an English dictionary and insert one word after another...

    You also have feedback loops on successful paths so overtime approaches that rarely work are completely ignored.
    It seems to me to be little different to how Google works with finding search results. The subject is different, but a lot of the principles are similar aren't they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Starmer out to 14 as next PM.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited July 2022
    Um, what? If this is a scoop rather than an error, even cynical me would have to admit it's terminal.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Another member of the CURRENT 22 exec https://twitter.com/eleanormia/status/1544625689525100545
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:

    Nadhim Zahawi's broadcast round this am is being billed by some in Whitehall as the most expensive in history - if it comes to pass

    He strongly hinted that corporation tax rise from 19% to 25% will be reversed - £16bn per year

    He also leaned into income tax cut - £5bn a year

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544624832360357888

    Anybody who believes anything Johnson and Zahawi say right now really does need their head examined.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779

    Starmer out to 14 as next PM.

    Why would that happen
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    MISTY said:

    Anybody who believes anything Johnson and Zahawi say right now really does need their head examined.
    So £16bn lost from corporation tax revenue - what spending is he planning to cut.. As that's £350m a week (roughly)

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,313

    Why would that happen
    Cos the next pm will be a Boris replacement.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,508
    Applicant said:

    Um, what? If this is a scoop rather than an error, even cynical me would have to admit it's terminal.


    I assume they mean Solicitor General
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Scott_xP said:

    And?

    Nobody tells the Big Dog what to do...
    His MPs do. He could be out as PM by 8pm.

    And there is nothing he could do about it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    The Russians have managed to knock out some of the M777 howitzers, so they might eventually spot a HIMARS with a UAV and be able to drop an artillery shell on it. However they seem to be quite mobile, so if Ukraine are cautious they can pull them out of range during the day and then drive them up to firing positions during the night.

    There have been some interesting videos of them reloading the things in fields, etc, which is suggestive of them being careful to distribute the reloads, so that Russia can't as easily catch one at an ammo dump.

    I think Ukraine will gradually receive more of these over time.
    One thing is utterly clear from this war - the days of lining up your artillery in a neat row, setting up a tea tent etc are gone. Shoot and scoot from individual positions (with high level coordination) is the only credible way forward.

    A question is whether armouring artillery systems is worth it vs mobility.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    He has lost the confidence of his own mps and is holed below the waterline

    Any other PM would by now have done the decent thing and resigned
    Most Tory MPs voted for him just a month ago, he won't go, if they want him out they will have to vote him out
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    That's not what Moon said to me, you've only heard it from the moderation team's POV.

    I stand up for what I think is right - and I have done that here.

    I don't like fighting anyone and would never look for one. If that's how you feel then I will end our relationship here.
    And yet so many times you post in an adversarial manner. You have great insight into Labour and clearly have a source close to the top. Its great to get those snippets, and I respect your opinions, without agreeing on a lot of them. Its just a shame that sometimes you go on a crusade, usually on someone elses behalf.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    kjh said:

    Cos the next pm will be a Boris replacement.
    Silly me - of course - thanks
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    MISTY said:


    The green agenda, adopted by every government in the West after Trump's defeat, is a recipe for instability. The reason is that right now this agenda cannot deliver prosperity and progress. Quite the opposite, in fact.

    Biden, Johnson, Netherlands, France, Germany et al. All these governments are in turmoil and facing mounting upheaval and defeat.



    Interesting, ta. I need to read up on it

    I note that one reason poor Sri Lanka is now deep in the shit is insane Greenery

    “In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong”

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/05/sri-lanka-organic-farming-crisis/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    I’m wearing a grey suit today.

    Apt.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited July 2022

    On another but even more important topic, these two threads are interesting on how the longer-range precision artillery that Ukraine is now receiving from the West is going to allow them to badly disrupt Russian logistics:

    https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017

    https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1544472420484091905

    Let's hope this is right.

    Yep, the Ukranians’ ability to hit, with precision, the Russian ammo dumps and rail heads, is making their logistics operation longer and much more stretched. The Russians use men rather than cranes and forklifts, to load and unload trucks, trucks which themselves are getting old and unreliable except on Tarmac roads.

    A small number of strategic missile hits, can make life a lot more difficult for the Russian logistics operation.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I might be willing to re-join the Conservative party soon....

    Only might....

    POBWAS
  • Why would that happen
    How do you mean? Clearly, Starmer only becomes NEXT PM if Johnson fights the next General Election. The chances of that happening are now very low indeed. I'm surprised he's as short as 14-1, to be honest.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    I assume they mean Solicitor General
    No indication that Braverman is going, would be very surprised.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    It seems to me to be little different to how Google works with finding search results. The subject is different, but a lot of the principles are similar aren't they?
    I wondered about that, but I tried putting some of the DALLE2 prompts into Google Image Search and I didn't receive much in the way of responses that were useful. So there's a bit more to it than that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,508
    On days like this I appreciate this place more than ever

    His MPs do. He could be out as PM by 8pm.

    And there is nothing he could do about it.
    We need to be very clear about of which we are predicting.
    I assume that you mean Boris Johnson being out as Tory leader by 8pm. He would remain Prime Minister.
    Or do you mean him resigning as Prime Minister? In which case Raaaab becomes PM.

    Get your money on now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    27m
    Wrong. He will resign.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,779
    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory MPs voted for him just a month ago, he won't go, if they want him out they will have to vote him out
    More than 33 have changed their minds since then
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67

    Why would that happen
    Because all the Tory possibilities are shortening.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    PMQ's

    Will be interesting to observe his tone. My expectation:
    1. He starts a little contrite. Mistakes made, moving on, will deliver.
    2. What's left of the whips operation hands out fawning question to what's left of the lickspittle group of backbenchers. Johnson responds with boosterist enthusiasm
    3. By the back end of PMQs he is roaring at the opposition benches about how marvellous he is and how dangerous Starmer would be
    4. He then fucks off as Javid stands to give his resignation statement. To derision from his own benches

    The liaison committee. Which Tories are on it, and any chance some of them could withdraw their support for him during the session to his face?
    My fear is starmer leading on the burning issue of cycle lanes in Stoke-on-Trent
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    2022 departure down to 1.07.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    Why would that happen
    If FPN'd, it won't be Starmer but more immediately, if Boris is ousted, the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative. That's why all the Labour candidates are out a bit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,313

    He has lost the confidence of his own mps and is holed below the waterline

    Any other PM would by now have done the decent thing and resigned
    @hyufd is right (bonkers as that might seem) because of what you say in your last sentence. He should have gone ages ago, so why would he go now. I think @hyufd might be right and the Tory MPs will have to remove him if he is to go. Difficult to believe that might be true.
  • More money going onto GE this year from me
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    PMQ's

    My fear is starmer leading on the burning issue of cycle lanes in Stoke-on-Trent
    Corbyn would have, but SKS isn't as incompetent as him.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    HYUFD said:

    Why should he resign? The British people elected him for a 5 year term in 2019, most Tory MPs voted they had confidence in him just a month ago. Most of the Cabinet are still behind him.

    He won't resign. If Tory MPs want him out they will have to vote him out
    He should resign for the same reason the blessed Lady Margaret (PBUH) resigned when she won a confidence vote after a decade as Britain's best ever peacetime prime minister.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    I predicted yesterday morning that Boris would survive the summer. I was wrong. Even more than last night, the range of Tory MPs from all aisles of that broadish church publicly asking for him to go this morning means he's toast, imminently.

    And as for our Epping friend's contention that it's largely remainers - well, the (far) right Brexiteers are pretty well represented. Lord Frost and Lee Anderson, anyone?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    One thing is utterly clear from this war - the days of lining up your artillery in a neat row, setting up a tea tent etc are gone. Shoot and scoot from individual positions (with high level coordination) is the only credible way forward.

    A question is whether armouring artillery systems is worth it vs mobility.

    There's another aspect to this that surprised me (it should not have): to accurately fire artillery, you need not only to know where the target is; you need to know where you are, and that means your position has to be surveyed. Hence all the piccies of squaddies looking through theodolites (I think - I doubt they are levels).

    A lot of positions can be pre-surveyed and marked. Does military-grade GPS signals give enough accuracy for this purpose?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    Pulpstar said:

    I hate to have to spell stuff like this out but did you not spot the implicit compliment in my "Poop poop" comment ?
    Pulpstar said:

    I hate to have to spell stuff like this out but did you not spot the implicit compliment in my "Poop poop" comment ?
    Sorry, missed that - it would have given my brain the bump needed to recognise Cyclefree's quotation! I had to rush out before I googled it.
    https://m.facebook.com/scottishwildlifetrust/videos/wind-in-the-willows-official-trailer/2113323465433342/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    kjh said:

    My concern is that Ukraine aren't getting that many and can't these be easily knocked out. Talking from ignorance so would love to be corrected.
    Such systems are very complicated (electrically, hydraulically, mechanically, etc.) and are only sustainable in the field by NATO forces because of a) years of experience and b) OEM/contractor support. So I think the new Ukrainian systems are more likely to be attrited by faults than Russian weapons.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    I predicted yesterday morning that Boris would survive the summer. I was wrong. Even more than last night, the range of Tory MPs from all aisles of that broadish church publicly asking for him to go this morning means he's toast, imminently.

    (Snip)

    I predict Boris Johnson will be PM in September.

    Given my track record in predictions, this means he'll be out before the day's over. ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Resignation numbers are rocketing into space.
    15 now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Roger said:

    PMQ's

    My fear is starmer leading on the burning issue of cycle lanes in Stoke-on-Trent
    "I've received a letter from Pauline in Stoke..."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,508
    MISTY said:

    He should resign for the same reason the blessed Lady Margaret (PBUH) resigned when she won a confidence vote after a decade as Britain's best ever peacetime prime minister.

    Remainers. Frost deliberately negotiated a wrecking Brexit deal to derail the one true no-deal Brexit. Proof he is a remainer.

    And neither of them are true Tories. Or something.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    His MPs do. He could be out as PM by 8pm.

    And there is nothing he could do about it.
    I think Boris should resign at the end of PMQs to get revenge on The Saj, whose resignation statement is due at one o'clock.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Leon said:

    Yes, I was thinking the exact same thing. At each stage of evolution some nerd could have said, in a nasal voice, “So what, it’s only got three cells”, or “so what, it’s just a fish”, or “so what, it still shits in the woods, lol” right up to “so what, anyone can write a play in blank verse”

    Yet you’ve gone from yeast to William Shakespeare
    I think the point is that some people (mentioning no names) want to ascribe the same value to the new tech as to the works of Shakespeare (or Van Gogh; whatever). Which is totally wrong: it looks similar, but in fact it's just mindless mimicry. Technologically impressive, and the implications on society are potentially vast, but it's not "thinking" in any real sense, because it isn't qualitatively different to "dumb" tech that already exists; just more powerful.

    So, it doesn't mean we're on the verge of creating a race of sentient beings. Which I think is the undercurrent of the commentary from those who seek to overstate the achievement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    MISTY said:

    He should resign for the same reason the blessed Lady Margaret (PBUH) resigned when she won a confidence vote after a decade as Britain's best ever peacetime prime minister.

    Thatcher lost most of the Cabinet then and faced a second ballot v Heseltine. Johnson won his VONC outright, faced no second ballot and most of the Cabinet are still behind him. He won't go
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher lost most of the Cabinet then and faced a second ballot v Heseltine. Johnson won his VONC outright, faced no second ballot and most of the Cabinet are still behind him. He won't go
    Will nobody think of maintaining the structural integrity of my sides, and dryness of my trousers?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kjh said:

    My concern is that Ukraine aren't getting that many and can't these be easily knocked out. Talking from ignorance so would love to be corrected.
    The modern artillery systems Ukraine are getting comprehensively outrange the Russian artillery - the only thing they need to fear if used cautiously and correctly is air power.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited July 2022
    Tony Blair was Britain's greatest post-war PM. Back to him please
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    5m
    We’re obviously not there yet. But it’s not inconceivable we’ll soon be at the point where the number of no confidence letters themselves exceed the number of votes required to remove Boris.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871
    Dura_Ace said:

    Such systems are very complicated (electrically, hydraulically, mechanically, etc.) and are only sustainable in the field by NATO forces because of a) years of experience and b) OEM/contractor support. So I think the new Ukrainian systems are more likely to be attrited by faults than Russian weapons.
    That's a good point, except many of the ex-Soviet systems the Russians use are also complex. Don't underestimate the Ukrainian's capabilities in this. Access to spares'll be the bigger issue. Hopefully (ha!) the OEMs will have made field maintenance easy (yes, I know...)

    With traditional artillery, gun tubes wear out (I don't know if that's the same for preloaded MLRS tubes). It'll be interesting to see if the Russians and Ukrainians have enough of these in storage, or can cannibalise enough of older systems.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712

    "I've received a letter from Pauline in Stoke..."
    "I've received a letter from Mark in Devon. He, a normally loyal Tory, says your days are numbered, Prime Minister. What would you like to say to Mark in Devon"?
  • It’s Corbyn 2016 all over again
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Leon said:

    It’s like the Final Act of Basic Instinct

    Boris is in the bath Lol. And oh dear

    It’s unfortunate for Jordan P that he has quite an unimpressive, squeaky voice

    Nonetheless his influence is significant. My much younger ex was massively into his books and vids. No idea why

    Dr Peterson is talking to groups of people that no-one else is talking to, helping people make the most of their lives, rather than writing them off or referring to them as ‘deplorables’. His influence among those groups is massive, and in a very positive way. Western society’s problems would be much worse without people like him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,257
    edited July 2022
    For what it's worth, and I emphasise that, Polly Toynbee in the Guardian is suggesting that Johnson is proposing to gain control of the House of Lords by creating 50 new Tory peers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    It’s Corbyn 2016 all over again

    Corbyn survived in 2016 of course
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Victoria Atkins resigns from Home Office
    https://order-order.com/2022/07/06/wednesday-live-blog/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103

    His MPs do. He could be out as PM by 8pm.

    And there is nothing he could do about it.
    Well done by the way. You precicted this fiasco and its likely conclusion when Boris was just a juvenile fibber
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707

    Meanwhile here's the Oxford Mail's lead story this morning:

    "Banbury man caught with sheep pornography gets suspended sentence"

    Isn't that Cameron Country?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Endillion said:

    I think the point is that some people (mentioning no names) want to ascribe the same value to the new tech as to the works of Shakespeare (or Van Gogh; whatever). Which is totally wrong: it looks similar, but in fact it's just mindless mimicry. Technologically impressive, and the implications on society are potentially vast, but it's not "thinking" in any real sense, because it isn't qualitatively different to "dumb" tech that already exists; just more powerful.

    So, it doesn't mean we're on the verge of creating a race of sentient beings. Which I think is the undercurrent of the commentary from those who seek to overstate the achievement.
    You’re missing the point, too, with all due respect


    What if “sentience” is just…. mimicry. What if intelligence is just autocomplete (like GPT3)? In this light, we are machines reacting to stimuli, Free Will is an illusion, so we are much closer to these computers than we realise

    Put it differently: we like to believe we are unique talented beings, with some divine spark of Whatever, therefore we are insulted when a “dumb” machine appears to do what we, and only we, can do. Create, imagine, paint, write, dream, sing, and make others laugh

    And yet what if it turns out the algorithms for this are really quite simple? And you just need a massive data set? Bit of a bummer for human self regard, but there we go
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871
    This is all rather good fun, isn't it?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,272
    Day 6 and still have a bright LFT/LFD line. Work are dropping me a laptop off so I can work the rest of my isolation period.

    Seems to be random how long people are positive for with each person's immune system being different and different variants out there with longer viral shedding.

    I feel better, but still can tell I feel 'off' so to speak.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn survived in 2016 of course
    He was re-elected by the members, which isn't an option for Boris.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    Full statement from Victoria Atkins, who I’m told technically falls under Ministry of Justice these days (well, she did). https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544630853338370048/photo/1
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153

    There's another aspect to this that surprised me (it should not have): to accurately fire artillery, you need not only to know where the target is; you need to know where you are, and that means your position has to be surveyed. Hence all the piccies of squaddies looking through theodolites (I think - I doubt they are levels).

    A lot of positions can be pre-surveyed and marked. Does military-grade GPS signals give enough accuracy for this purpose?
    The US has the ability to degrade the L1C (consumer) GPS signal while maintaining accuracy by using the high gain antennae on the GPS Block III satellites to provide localised high precision GNSS via M-Code. This is the so-called Blue on Blue Electronic Attack which has been the holy grail of GPS ever since Clinton removed the 'wobble' from the civvie signal.

    However, I don't know if they are doing the L1C degradation over Ukraine and they certainly won't be sharing any M-Code compatible. hardware with them in case it falls into Russian hands.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn survived in 2016 of course
    Corbyn had the advantage in that the final say in his removal wasn't Labour MPs but the party membership. Bozo doesn't have that luxury...

    Although granted the only way Bozo will leave is by the 1922 committee changing their rulebook.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871
    Leon said:

    You’re missing the point, too, with all due respect


    What if “sentience” is just…. mimicry. What if intelligence is just autocomplete (like GPT3)? In this light, we are machines reacting to stimuli, Free Will is an illusion, so we are much closer to these computers than we realise

    Put it differently: we like to believe we are unique talented beings, with some divine spark of Whatever, therefore we are insulted when a “dumb” machine appears to do what we, and only we, can do. Create, imagine, paint, write, dream, sing, and make others laugh

    And yet what if it turns out the algorithms for this are really quite simple? And you just need a massive data set? Bit of a bummer for human self regard, but there we go
    May we have your definition of intelligence? What is intelligence?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188

    I might be willing to re-join the Conservative party soon....

    Only might....

    POBWAS

    I’ve put £20 on Spurs to win the PL and £10 to win the CL.

    Big fan of Conte.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Endillion said:

    I think the point is that some people (mentioning no names) want to ascribe the same value to the new tech as to the works of Shakespeare (or Van Gogh; whatever). Which is totally wrong: it looks similar, but in fact it's just mindless mimicry. Technologically impressive, and the implications on society are potentially vast, but it's not "thinking" in any real sense, because it isn't qualitatively different to "dumb" tech that already exists; just more powerful.

    So, it doesn't mean we're on the verge of creating a race of sentient beings. Which I think is the undercurrent of the commentary from those who seek to overstate the achievement.
    Complete missing of the point. You guys think you know something about computers but it has obviously never occurred to you that the nature of human consciousness is quite a difficult issue. Humans are qualitatively different from what they evolved from are they? They might be but the case needs making.

    Look at the computers which beat world champions at chess and go. They evolved from dumb tech. They don't look very dumb to me.
  • I am told MoonRabbit will be commenting again soon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    May we have your definition of intelligence? What is intelligence?
    Autocomplete
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn survived in 2016 of course
    Except that Corbyn could always fall back on the support of the party membership. If a majority of Conservative MPs really have, at long last, tired of Johnson then he's done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    5m
    We’re obviously not there yet. But it’s not inconceivable we’ll soon be at the point where the number of no confidence letters themselves exceed the number of votes required to remove Boris.

    Be remiss of Brady not to share that with the PM.

    Although Boris would no doubt go full-on Downfall mode "Ah, but those numbers include many letters from my loyalist MPs, to again thwart the forces ranged against me...."
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Applicant said:

    He was re-elected by the members, which isn't an option for Boris.
    If he resigned rather than being No Confidenced under the rules, couldn't he run again?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    Gotta admit I thought Boris would be fine... but this really does feel like the end. Another bad call from me.
    I will be seriously quids in though if somehow Aaron Bell becomes next Prime Minister.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Roger said:

    Well done by the way. You precicted this fiasco and its likely conclusion when Boris was just a juvenile fibber
    Not quite there yet Roger. But yes, looking likely that I will be the great political sage of our times! lol....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Eagles, but aren't Spurs cursed by an ancient coven of witches to perpetually get close to but never actually achieve football glory?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188

    Be remiss of Brady not to share that with the PM.

    Although Boris would no doubt go full-on Downfall mode "Ah, but those numbers include many letters from my loyalist MPs, to again thwart the forces ranged against me...."
    What is our Penny up to?

    I’d be pissed at not being promoted to the cabinet.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    eek said:

    Corbyn had the advantage in that the final say in his removal wasn't Labour MPs but the party membership. Bozo doesn't have that luxury...

    Although granted the only way Bozo will leave is by the 1922 committee changing their rulebook.
    The 1922 Committee aren't going to change the rules in such a way that he might be able to go back to the membership, surely!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    16
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    pigeon said:

    Except that Corbyn could always fall back on the support of the party membership. If a majority of Conservative MPs really have, at long last, tired of Johnson then he's done.
    A key point. Labour MPs were acting against their members' wishes, the Tory ones aren't
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Well, I'm managing to get fuck all done today - and unlikely to get much done this afternoon either, what with PMQs and resignation statements and resignation watch.

    Bloody politics!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188

    Mr. Eagles, but aren't Spurs cursed by an ancient coven of witches to perpetually get close to but never actually achieve football glory?

    Yes. In the space of 3 months last season Liverpool won more trophies than Spurs have this millennium.

    They are the Everton of North London.

    But Conte is great.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    This is all rather good fun, isn't it?

    If only it were just a game, like the liar king believes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    When a government minister resigns citing the absence of "integrity, decency, respect and professionalism" as a reason for going, what does that say about the ones that stay?
    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1544632163722723328
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    There's another aspect to this that surprised me (it should not have): to accurately fire artillery, you need not only to know where the target is; you need to know where you are, and that means your position has to be surveyed. Hence all the piccies of squaddies looking through theodolites (I think - I doubt they are levels).

    A lot of positions can be pre-surveyed and marked. Does military-grade GPS signals give enough accuracy for this purpose?
    There was some brilliant footage last week of the Ukranians using a drone as a ‘spotter’ for long-range artillery, which was brilliantly innovative.

    The MLRS really need to use each firing location once, and then move on quickly, keeping them well hidden during the day. The Russians will quickly work backwards to get the firing locations.
This discussion has been closed.