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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?
This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam )
pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE
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Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.
This is deadly serious.
Farewell Scotland, it'll be sad to see you go. Sold down the river for a pile of fool's gold by a parcel of Westminster and nationalist rogues.
Gavin Hamilton @GHmltn now
People queuing at polling stations waiting to vote in Edinburgh
Twitter
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori 3m
Today many pollsters will be thinking about Quebec 1995
The second version used the estimates of the 2010 westminster vote shares by local authority combined with partisan yes/no splits from opinion polls. This gave much more intuitive results than the first version, but had no way of adjusting for regional patterns specific to this referendum.
This third version includes uniform adjustments at regional level based on polling data. This has similar caveats to the second version.
Areas where I'm particularly cautious include the islands - the regional adjustment is based on polling of the highlands and islands region but clearly the islands could be very different to the highlands and some people have indeed suggested this.
Here is the updated dispersion, normalised to a 50-50 national tie, with the previous two methods for comparison:
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-should-we-interpret-early-results-III.html#more
As always, feedback is welcome.
I'll be online through the night to comment on how the results shape up as they come in.
I am beginning to wonder about DevoMax All Round, with London split off from England to produce a passably federal state in these islands...
In this country we need more democracy. Not less.
It is your belief that Scotland will leave that is helping me cling to the idea of a no vote still!
Also, I'll bake a Dundee cake.
Cameron has proved a crap negotiator letting Salmond get away with this and will pay in 2015 in UKIP votes.
Not Scotland, but the polling for the NZ general election on Saturday has started to tighten.
Latest poll shows
NAT 45%(-1), LAB 25%, GRN 12%(-2), NZF 8%(+1), CNS 4.4%, IMP 1.8%, MP 1.6%(+1), ACT 0.6%
That would translate into
Right Block 59 Seats
National 57
ACT 1
UF 1
Left Block 50 Seats
Labour 32
Greens 16
IMP 2
Centre parties 12 Seats
NZF 10 Seats
MP 2 Seats
Depending on overhand, 61 or 62 seats required to take power. Of the centre parties NZF could do anything, I think they'd like to go with Labour, it's leader personally hates the National party leader.
If the CNS don't get 5% to break threshold I think the left can win. I'd say its maybe a 35% chance. You can presently get 6.8 on this on Betfair.
Screaming huge value
the weather favours NO I'm told
I calmly set my final bets last night.
I will do best with a result like Jacks MCARSE, but covered this early on with 8/1 on 50-55% Yes, so am in the green with most outcomes.
I have a side bet on the Western Isles having the highest Yes, and Shetland having the lowest.
I also have a McSweens haggis and a bottle of Talisker to watch the results with, though have to be at work at 0900.
Final average poll lead of approx 3%
Shy No factor
Innate desire of voters to be on perceived winning side
No-supporting Oldies more likely to vote than other age groups
Historic tendency of "don't knows" to stay with the status quo, i.e. vote No.
Greater media endorsement than Yes campaign
Late Gordon Brown factor, not fully reflected in polls
Factors favouring the Yes campaign:
Better run and more enthusiastic campaign
Yes side seen to be in the clear ascendancy vs No side's descendancy
Better organised and more energised supporters especially re: GOTV
Once in a generation perception of Scots becoming masters of their own destiny
I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.
In the Outer Hebrides.
If you ever needed a sign....this is an unusual day!
Typical - I don't get to vote for a tory mp at general elections and don't even get a say on whether scotland should be part of the UK or not.
Such is life in the democratic republic of Bercow-land....
He chased me down the road, more or less, to apologise and agree with me.
Huge day for you.
You have my best wishes for it.
GraveDave • 19 hours ago
Remember he said he wanted to be PM “Because I think I’d be good at it.”
You'd be good at it Sean. And you'd still be able to write books.
7^ • Reply•Share ›
Sean for PM!! 8 confirmed supporters so far
The neighbour is one of the Vatersay Boys - if it is a yes, I expect there will be one hell of an impromptu party tomorrow....
The real release will be the changed political dynamic in England. We have the prosepct of a sustained period of 'sound money' governance - thank the lord. It seems incredible to me (a fairly hard nosed pragmatist) that we re-elect Labour governments from time to time to ruin our finances all over again:
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire
England is indeed a 'mongrel nation' and socialism is its vomit.
I feel sorry for you.
Now that's all fine and good if everyone voting Yes is aware of it or doesn't care.
My concern is that either through a blinding of science (basis point spread this, LOLR that, etc, etc) or wilful disingenuousness, those or some Yes voters might be unaware of the short- to mid-term upheaval they face and its costs.
They're angrier than you! Must be a Scottish thing
Average Yes = 47.92%.
None of them were as sincere as yours mind you and explains why they are in trouble.
A momentous day (and night) ahead for us all.
This insecurity is strange and leads to the pathetic comments by the likes of Socrates , bitter and twisted souls who cannot enjoy their life for hating people.
Today is a momentous day!
Royal & Ancient will finally (hopefully) vote YES to women members...
Just checked on Twitter to see Murray's comment. No side negativity is undeniable (it's the nature of the beast), but if Scotland votes Yes and gets shafted financially by the markets and businesses moving south Darling et al. will end up looking like Cassandra.
The range of guesses was from 35% to 66%.
What pleases me most about that is his reason for doing so-the utter negativity of the No campaign.
Can't see Bill Clinton having as much influence on Scotland as he may have had on Quebec, particularly as many Scots are aware of the support of many US presidents for the independence of the Irish Republic, including Clinton and Obama.
All that said, if it is a No, the issue isn't going away, and if, as I suspect, it is made much more difficult by Westminster for Scotland to have a future referendum, much trouble will be stored up for the future.
As the English genius Shakespeare said:
"If it were done when tis done, then 'twere well
It were done quickly"